Dustin Keller (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Dustin Keller ranked as the #9 TE in fantasy points last season, but he dropped to #14 in PPG (Clark, Finley, Hernandez, Heap and Miller passed him). In MFL he's going as TE15, as Jimmy Graham, Owen Daniels and Brandon Pettigrew have all moved past him (while Heap and Hernandez have dropped behind him). I can't say that Keller is more exciting as a fantasy prospect than most of the players ahead of him, but I do think Keller could be on the verge of a breakout season.

Keller had a very strong rookie season, catching 48-535-3. In year 2, he actually improved: while 45-522-2 doesn't look like an improvement, the Jets went from being a pass-heavy team with Brett Favre from a run-heavy team with Mark Sanchez. Keller caught 15.2% of the team's passing yards in '08 and then 20.1% of the passing yards in '09.

In 2010, he against caught 20.1% of the team's passing yards, but the offense regressed towards more normal run/pass ratios. As a result, he put up his best year yet, with 55-687-5.

Through four weeks, Keller was the #2 fantasy TE behind Gates. That was before Santonio Holmes returned from his four game suspension, and Keller's numbers dropped.

This year, Holmes will be there all year but several things point to an uptick in Keller's numbers:

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

-- Jets RBs won't catch 77 passes again this year

-- Sanchez should improve, perhaps significantly so

-- Possible loss of Jerricho Cotchery

Believe it or not, Keller actually led the team in receptions last year. But he's got a lot of room to improve.

Last year, the Jets ranked 22nd in passing yards with 3,242. That number was low, in large part, because Sanchez wasn't very good. Sanchez ranked just 27th out of 31 QBs in yards per pass last year. Does anyone think Sanchez will be the 27th best QB in the NFL in 2011?

I expect Sanchez to make a big jump in year three. I'd project the Jets at 3500 passing yards in 2011. Keller has been steady at 20.1% of the team's yards the past two seasons, but at lot has changed:

2009 2010Keller 20.1% 20.1%WR1 31.6% 26.4%WR2 20.8% 21.8%WR3 7.4% 12.7%RB1 5.0% 10.8%Other 15.0% 8.2%The big changes came in the form of Santonio Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson, which dropped Cotchery down to WR3 (hence the uptick there) and brought about more passes to the running backs. But with a weaker WR2, weaker WR3 (potentially much weaker if Cotchery is gone) and a weaker RB, that means Keller might jump to 25% of the team's yards. That puts him in line for a 70-875-8 sort of season. That is the optimistic view, of course. Sanchez might not improve. The passing game might collapse with only two workable parts. But I think the most likely scenarios are: 1) Keller taking over a much bigger role in the offense with Edwards (and possibly Cotchery) gone; and 2) the Jets passing for more yards in 2011 than 2010.

Considering Keller was already TE9 in 2010, I think he's a great guy to target late as your tight end.

 

[Young 8]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

 

[finito]

Good info. Not quite convinced Sanchez will improve much but I do think Keller has nice upside.

 

[LHUCKS]

Limited upside in this conservative offense.

I like the othe TEs around him that have more upside.

 

[Chase Stuart]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

If you disagree with that, then you probably shouldn't view Keller as a sleeper. But I would take the under on Burress getting even 75% of the 900 yards Edwards had last season.

 

[Young 8]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

If you disagree with that, then you probably shouldn't view Keller as a sleeper.

No, I don'tActually I think you wrote a load of crap, like this

But with a weaker WR2, weaker WR3 (potentially much weaker if Cotchery is gone) and a weaker RB,

 

[LHUCKS]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

If you disagree with that, then you probably shouldn't view Keller as a sleeper. But I would take the under on Burress getting even 75% of the 900 yards Edwards had last season.

Plax is about equal to Braylon IMHO, a better redzone threat than Braylon but likely not quite as good between the 20s.I call it a wash.

In order for Keller to breakout you'll need the Jets to get more agressive offensively, and with one of the top defenses I think it's unlikely they'll have to be

 

[LHUCKS]

No, I don'tActually I think you wrote a load of crap, like this

dude, turn down the tool factor...big timeact like an adult

 

[Chase Stuart]

Limited upside in this conservative offense.I like the othe TEs around him that have more upside.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/1999.htm You can be a stud TE on a conservative offense is there aren't many other targets. Right now, the Jets might field one WR who caught a pass in the NFL last season, as Burress, Jeremy Kerley, Logan Payne, Scotty McKnight might be the WR2-5.

 

[Jayrod]

No, I don'tActually I think you wrote a load of crap, like this

dude, turn down the tool factor...big timeact like an adult

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

Is this shtick? In what world is a soon to be 34 year old WR who just spent 2 years in prison not a significant downgrade from Braylon Edwards?

 

[LHUCKS]

huge difference between cocky shtick vs. insulting somebody's post

 

[Moniker]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

Is this shtick? In what world is a soon to be 34 year old WR who just spent 2 years in prison not a significant downgrade from Braylon Edwards?

 

[LHUCKS]

Limited upside in this conservative offense.I like the othe TEs around him that have more upside.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/1999.htm You can be a stud TE on a conservative offense is there aren't many other targets. Right now, the Jets might field one WR who caught a pass in the NFL last season, as Burress, Jeremy Kerley, Logan Payne, Scotty McKnight might be the WR2-5.

Holmes/Plax is above average or average at WR IMHO.If Keller had the skillset of a top tier TE I might be on board, but I see him as a slightly above average TE on an avereage passing team. And as mentioned previously, the offense just doesn't throw enough.He needs significantly mor targets to make a fantasy splash and the departure of Braylon doesn't justify that projection IMHO.

 

[Instinctive]

No, I don'tActually I think you wrote a load of crap, like this

dude, turn down the tool factor...big timeact like an adult

 

[Hoosier16]

He doesn't really need an uptick in the offense or a downgrade at WR to become more relevant. Since Greene will be used more (and Tomlinson less), just taking a portion of Tomlinson's targets and receptions move him up a tier or two. Taking about 30 of Tomlinson's almost 80 targets likely puts him above 70 receptions and 850 yards.

 

[LHUCKS]

He doesn't really need an uptick in the offense or a downgrade at WR to become more relevant. Since Greene will be used more (and Tomlinson less), just taking a portion of Tomlinson's targets and receptions move him up a tier or two. Taking about 30 of Tomlinson's almost 80 targets likely puts him above 70 receptions and 850 yards.

why do you think the Jets will pass less to their backfield?

 

[Shutout]

As a Keller, Plax (in the past), and Edwards owner, I can see the reasoning for Keller but I find a couple of problems with it (despite the fact that i WISH you are correct):

-Keller did the majority of his damage last year while Holmes was suspended and he was just not the same priority once Holmes returned. As Sanchez is trying to progress as a QB (and the team wants him to), it would seem that unless Holmes misses time again, the trend is going away from Keller instead of towards him. Keller had great numbers that first month last year but the falloff was dramatic.

-Plax really Isn't a downgrade at all from Edwards. granted, we don't know if he's slowed, etc, but the REAL difference is that Plax runs better routes and if you go back and look at the Jets last year, a good number of Sanchez's picks were when going to Edwards and there is a good amount of speculation that some of those were due to Edwards not being exactly where he shoud be. So, physically, I'll give it to anyone who says Edwards rates better at this point in time, but overall, I will take the huge targeted veteran that can run precise routes...and I think the Jets will too.

I can agree with moderate improvement as the result of the Jets likely being a very good team this year but I wouldn't expect him to suddenly be a 70/900/8TD type.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

Plaxico at 34-35 years old and two years removed from football is a downgrade from Edwards imo as well.

 

[NeverEnough]

With Sanchez as the Qb & in the NYJ run heavy scheme, I don't see any big points from him.

 

[Jayrod]

huge difference between cocky shtick vs. insulting somebody's post

That may be true, but your exact post applies to you pretty squarely on a regular basis. Here, I'll quote it out of context so you can just soak it in a bit:

dude, turn down the tool factor...big timeact like an adult

 

[Chase Stuart]

With Sanchez as the Qb & in the NYJ run heavy scheme, I don't see any big points from him.

I hear you. But do you expect Sanchez to rank in the bottom five in the league in yards per attempt this year? I think some improvement is likely; combined with the departure of Edwards (and especially if Cotchery leaves, too) and transitioning from LT to Greene, and I think a bunch of small changes could jump Keller to the 850-900 yard range.

 

[LHUCKS]

With Sanchez as the Qb & in the NYJ run heavy scheme, I don't see any big points from him.

I hear you. But do you expect Sanchez to rank in the bottom five in the league in yards per attempt this year? I think some improvement is likely; combined with the departure of Edwards (and especially if Cotchery leaves, too) and transitioning from LT to Greene, and I think a bunch of small changes could jump Keller to the 850-900 yard range.

I expect Sanchez to improve and Rex Ryan was just saying the same yesterday on NFLN...how much will play a big role in Keller's upside.I don't disagree that a bunch of small changes could put him in the 850 range.

 

[njherdfan]

Last year watching Sanchez, it was clear that he had a firm idea of who he was looking towards before most plays developed. This manifested itself in a decrease in targets and catches once Holmes returned, as Sanchez begain to lock in on Holmes more and more. While Sanchez's habits don't lead to him being a great QB, they do lead to pretty consistent target numbers IMO. Now, without Braylon (presumably) I'd have to assume that Keller will be the 2nd target and see a lot more targets than he saw last season. Regardless of Sanchez's improvement (and I really hope he does improve) I expect to see Keller get a lot more targets which will lead to increased stats. Keller has also always been healthy, which I think adds a notch or two to his fantasy value.

As for the Jets being a conservative offense, most of Keller's TDs last year came in the RZ, and while the Jets run the ball a lot, they don't hesitate to throw the ball in the RZ, which could help Keller's TD totals (or Plax's, depending on how the distribution works)

 

[We Tigers]

At this point, I think Keller is definitely likely to be the real #2 receiving threat in the Jets' offense. I'll see what Plax does in camp, but I don't expect him to be much more than a tall body who gets 40 or so catches.

My one big, big concern with Keller is this: he finished TE9 last year, but in the last 12 games of the season--the games with Holmes--he had 430 yards and no TDs. The guy was absolutely worthless after Holmes came back, scoring fewer than 5 points in 9 of 12 weeks and never reaching 8 points again. In 3 games, he didn't even get 20 yards! I'm not sure yet if I think it's going to be an 85 rec/1200 yard/10 TD season for Santonio or if Sanchez will learn to start using both of them.

Keller's a good late pick because logic dictates that he should see a much greater workload, but his uselessness with Holmes on the field has me skeptical. If the Jets are stupid enough to trade Cotchery, acquire no one else, and start the season with a very good receiver, an old man fresh out of jail, and a bunch of practice squadders at WR, I'm in.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

No, I don'tActually I think you wrote a load of crap, like this

dude, turn down the tool factor...big timeact like an adult

 

[lord_helmet]

you wrote a load of crap

New here?

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

If you disagree with that, then you probably shouldn't view Keller as a sleeper. But I would take the under on Burress getting even 75% of the 900 yards Edwards had last season.

I would probably be still taking the under if the number was set at 500 yards.

 

[Captain Hook]

Chase - curious, Why do you even suggest that Cotchery won't be there?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase - curious, Why do you even suggest that Cotchery won't be there?

Rumors are swirling that the Jets will trade him due to $$$.

 

[cr8f]

He doesn't really need an uptick in the offense or a downgrade at WR to become more relevant. Since Greene will be used more (and Tomlinson less), just taking a portion of Tomlinson's targets and receptions move him up a tier or two. Taking about 30 of Tomlinson's almost 80 targets likely puts him above 70 receptions and 850 yards.

He was off the field last year often because he wasn't a good blocker. I expect improvements this year in that area giving him a few more targets.

 

[beerbarron]

Dustin Keller - Sleeper Alert.. would someone please wake up DK.. hes been sleeping through the last few years.. xcept when RLewis spanked him running acrooss the middle...

DK should be CheckDownchez #2 target this year and hopefully that will mean an increase in his numbers... but similar stories have been written the last few years..

Seems like more of the same.. some solid games with nothing inbetween... Ive tried moving him at and undervalue and no bites... The Jets run first mentality is the response i usually get.. meh....

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

Is this shtick? In what world is a soon to be 34 year old WR who just spent 2 years in prison not a significant downgrade from Braylon Edwards?

exactly.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Replacing Cotchery with Mason is another positive for Keller, IMO. Mason was a much better WR in his prime, but he's 8.5 years older than Cotchery.

Keller is now the longest tenured target for Sanchez, and you could see last year that the two had strong chemistry. Holmes will be the clear #1, buy I expect Keller to finish 2nd on the tram in receptions and yards.

 

[We Tigers]

Replacing Cotchery with Mason is another positive for Keller, IMO. Mason was a much better WR in his prime, but he's 8.5 years older than Cotchery.Keller is now the longest tenured target for Sanchez, and you could see last year that the two had strong chemistry. Holmes will be the clear #1, buy I expect Keller to finish 2nd on the tram in receptions and yards.

+1 at calling the Jets a tram, not a train.I wouldn't be surprised if Mason caught more passes than Plax, but I don't think Mason will produce like he has in Baltimore the past several years. A lot of that seemed due to Flacco's trust in him more than anything else.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Don't forget that former Colts OC Tom Moore is now an offensive consultant with the NY Jets and was specifically working with Keller at camp two days ago. Moore's main focus is improving the Jets third down conversion rates and red zone efficieny. Keller says he's learning a ton from Moore already and Moore has compared him to Dallas Clark.

Take this for what it's worth.

 

[Defending Champs]

No, I don'tActually I think you wrote a load of crap, like this

dude, turn down the tool factor...big timeact like an adult

Well said, I get tired of this nonsense.

 

[Joe Bryant]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

If you disagree with that, then you probably shouldn't view Keller as a sleeper.

No, I don'tActually I think you wrote a load of crap, like this

But with a weaker WR2, weaker WR3 (potentially much weaker if Cotchery is gone) and a weaker RB,

Disagreement is what makes this board work. If you think someone is wrong, say so and explain why you think they're wrong. TIA.

J

 

[Joe Bryant]

No, I don'tActually I think you wrote a load of crap, like this

dude, turn down the tool factor...big timeact like an adult

Well said, I get tired of this nonsense.

Me too. You guys please always report this kind of stuff so we can keep a little bit of a lid on it. I ALWAYS want disagreements aired. It's the foundation of what this board is. But we're going to have productive discussion here on players. If people can't do that, they need to find another board. But to be fair, that isn't how many boards work. New people won't know that's how we do it unless we step in and tell them. J

 

[SYMPHONY X]

The following article talks about how Tom Moore has been the most significant addition to the Jets offense this season:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/15397792/for-jets-to-take-off-they-must-let-sanchez-fly

Does Moore's offense have the potential to make Keller a poor-man's Dallas Clark? I think it does. See the following quote from the article, where a light bulb seems to have gone off for Sanchez:

"When you turn on the film from last year during the regular season I missed about 30 balls to Dustin Keller that were so easy. I keep overlooking him and I keep overlooking him, then I finally start hitting him in the playoffs. It's no wonder why your completion percentage goes up. You're not throwing the ball outside every time. You look at your tight end, and there go your numbers."

I see a significant bump in Keller's numbers this year, provided that Sanchez continues to improve as a QB.

 

[LHUCKS]

The following article talks about how Tom Moore has been the most significant addition to the Jets offense this season:http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/15397792/for-jets-to-take-off-they-must-let-sanchez-flyDoes Moore's offense have the potential to make Keller a poor-man's Dallas Clark? I think it does. See the following quote from the article, where a light bulb seems to have gone off for Sanchez:"When you turn on the film from last year during the regular season I missed about 30 balls to Dustin Keller that were so easy. I keep overlooking him and I keep overlooking him, then I finally start hitting him in the playoffs. It's no wonder why your completion percentage goes up. You're not throwing the ball outside every time. You look at your tight end, and there go your numbers."I see a significant bump in Keller's numbers this year, provided that Sanchez continues to improve as a QB.

Yep, I'm going to backpedal here after reading this.Keller may very well be a value play this year.

 

[De Novo]

You have optimistic assumption built on top of optimistic assumption in order to justify him as a value pick. While I think it's possible, I think it will take a Santonio Holmes injury.

 

[ThePittbully]

I'm buying, because of everything Chase said but even more so because of the addition of Tom Moore and the work he's been putting in with Keller specifically. Also I think Sanchez is bound to improve on his previous years numbers, which combined with lack of legit receiving options should mean better numbers for Keller as well. I like both Keller and Santonio in 2011

 

[BigTex]

-- Replacing Braylon Edwards with Plaxico Burress (think this is a major downgrade)

LOL, what ?

If you disagree with that, then you probably shouldn't view Keller as a sleeper. But I would take the under on Burress getting even 75% of the 900 yards Edwards had last season.

Plax is sooooo overrated it's just plain stupid!