<DYNAST> "At risk" RB's this off-season. (1 Viewer)

[The Comedian]

Every off-season, free agency and the draft form a gauntlet that all RB’s have to make it through. Some emerge fine, some have their value sabotaged by their team bringing in someone to compete, compliment, or replace. I think it could be a good idea to try and discuss what RB’s might be at high risk of having something like this happen.

Some guys I’ve been thinking about:

LaGarrette Blount - I’ve seen several mocks and heard commentators mention Tampa Bay as a potential landing spot for Trent Richardson. I’ve even seen speculation that Hillis might end up there. Blount is talented, but not exactly a complete back, and is coming off an uneven 2011 campaign. With Schiano coming in and presumably planning to have an offense relying heavily on the run, Blount represents an intriguing buy low candidate, if he can make it through free agency and the draft without being replaced.

Blount is a guy I'm legitimately thinking of unloading as the presumptive starter in TB. If he ends up remaining the #1 after this off-season, I could really regret it.

Steven Jackson - I haven’t read much on this, but I have a feeling that this is the year that the Rams bring in some serious, legitimate, SJax insurance. I’m not sure if it will just be a higher quality backup (I couldn’t even tell you who the Rams’ #2 is) or someone who could be an heir apparent, but I think something is going to happen. Might not effect Jackson much in 2012, but it might further damage his trade value, which is probably already beginning to happen given his age.

Ray Rice - This will probably draw some flak, but Rice is on here for two reasons. First, Ricky Williams is gone, so they’ll need someone to replace the Williams/McGahee spot behind Rice. Secondly, I think there’s at least a chance that whoever the Ravens bring in is someone who is a little more dynamic/useful than those guys were, and therefore could cut into Rice’s workload, which let’s acknowledge, has been tremendous over the past couple years. I’m not sure if the Ravens, particularly after they invest the amount of money in Rice that they are (presumably) about to, will keep giving him that heavy of a workload. I’m not saying run out and trade Rice, not at all, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Those are the main ones I’m thinking of for now. There’s probably a lot of mid-level/upside guys that people are holding on to because they think those guys are in line for a role that could end up being filled by someone else, but maybe this at least gets a conversation going.

 

[Chimp Magnet]

Add Mendenhal to this list.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Frank Gore

Michael Turner

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Not elite guys but Peyton Hillis and Shonn Greene.

 

[The Comedian]

Add Mendenhal to this list.

I wouldn't necessarily have him on this list because I think this has already happened to Mendenhall. I don't expect him to be a significant factor in 2012 and I wouldn't be totally shocked if he was never a team's starter again.

Not elite guys but Peyton Hillis and Shonn Greene.

Doesn't have to be elite. I definitely agree on Shonn Greene - anyone valuing him as the locked in starter for NYJ next year does so at their own peril. The Hillis situation is murky anyway because it's not clear what team he'll be on, but if it is CLE, I don't think they come back next year with just Hardesty behind him, who was pretty pedestrian when he got his chance.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Fred Jackson. Looked great, got hurt, Spiller came in and performed well.

 

[Hoosier16]

I know it's pretty much assumed that he's gone, but add Benson to the list.

 

[ExaltedOne]

Add every RB in the league except for McCoy to this list.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Blount won't finish the 2012 season as the starter. Either they sign Hillis/Tolbert and he starts Day 1 or a rookie surpasses him during the year. The guy is too one dimensional.

Rice I don't agree with at all. McGahee &amp; Williams -- still 2 very good RB's. I saw a number of people say McGahee looked lackluster in Baltimore....was wondering what they were watching. He looked very good....Rice is just a better RB. I think the guys behind Rice have been the best backup RB's in the league at the time....either could carry the load in a pinch -- many backup RB's can't over an extended period of time. To expect an improvement over them is foolish IMO

 

[Gandalf]

The reality: every RB in the league. There is no way to predict who will fall in 2012 but if this year has taught me one thing it is that no RB is safe. Even McCoy.

 

[saintfool]

LaGarrette Blount - I’ve seen several mocks and heard commentators mention Tampa Bay as a potential landing spot for Trent Richardson. I’ve even seen speculation that Hillis might end up there. Blount is talented, but not exactly a complete back, and is coming off an uneven 2011 campaign. With Schiano coming in and presumably planning to have an offense relying heavily on the run, Blount represents an intriguing buy low candidate, if he can make it through free agency and the draft without being replaced.

Blount is a guy I'm legitimately thinking of unloading as the presumptive starter in TB. If he ends up remaining the #1 after this off-season, I could really regret it.

i think blount is a great buy low candidate for the reasons you mention. he has a lot of talent but, like everyone else on the Bucs last year, he didn't live up to it. he quit on morris and i don't begrudge him one bit for it. personally, i don't know what he can do beyond run hard because morris' judgement is suspect. every RB can improve on pass catching and blocking. if blount can impress the new staff with improvement there and a good attitude then i think he's got a great season ahead.

 

[gianmarco]

Add every RB in the league except for McCoy to this list.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Blount won't finish the 2012 season as the starter. Either they sign Hillis/Tolbert and he starts Day 1 or a rookie surpasses him during the year. The guy is too one dimensional.

Starts day 1? How many times have people got caught up in the hype of the new shiny rookie and lost out. Jstew was going to take over, but Dwill stepped up. Larry Johnson for Priest Holmes. Fred Jackson has held off Spiller for 2 years. Tolbert has been fighting Mathews for 2 years as well.Too one dimensional??? Blount runs over, around, or jumps over defenders. When a guy averages 5 yards per carry on his way to a 1000 yard season and is 24...i'm paying attention to him. Just like Ben Tate is undervalued currently, but look at his numbers last year.People get too caught up in these pass catching RBs. Not every RB catches 40+ receptions in a season.

 

[Tanner9919]

D. Mcfadden...some reports say the team has been looking to trade him..he's coming off 2 injury-marred seasons and

his inability to stay healthy over the course of a full 16 game schedule, is a HUGE problem.

Shonn Greene - Jets need to upgrade at RB, LT likely won't be back,the team needs to acquire a RB thru the draft or F/A or both.

R. Helu - no doubt Shanny will keep everyone guessing

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I wouldn't necessarily have him on this list because I think this has already happened to Mendenhall. I don't expect him to be a significant factor in 2012 and I wouldn't be totally shocked if he was never a team's starter again.

Man is Mendenhall a buy low. Thomas Jones got three cracks at a starters' gig, and Cedric Benson and Marshawn Lynch both got do-overs. Mendenhall has shown more at this point of his career, and is probably better than all three of those guys.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Blount won't finish the 2012 season as the starter. Either they sign Hillis/Tolbert and he starts Day 1 or a rookie surpasses him during the year. The guy is too one dimensional.

Starts day 1? How many times have people got caught up in the hype of the new shiny rookie and lost out. Jstew was going to take over, but Dwill stepped up. Larry Johnson for Priest Holmes. Fred Jackson has held off Spiller for 2 years. Tolbert has been fighting Mathews for 2 years as well.Too one dimensional??? Blount runs over, around, or jumps over defenders. When a guy averages 5 yards per carry on his way to a 1000 yard season and is 24...i'm paying attention to him. Just like Ben Tate is undervalued currently, but look at his numbers last year.People get too caught up in these pass catching RBs. Not every RB catches 40+ receptions in a season.

Yes, if they sign Hillis or Tolbert....they will start day 1.If they draft a rookie (Richardson/Miller), I expect Blount to start the beginning portions of the regular season. Blount is 1 dimensional, . He's useless if/when the Bucs get down and he's not the explosive threat of either Richardson/Miller. Because Blount does not offer the pass catching or special teams value, he's EXACTLY the type of RB you deal.....because when he's replaced (and he will be soon), his value is nothing.I think he's a sell sell sell. (I don't see him as the future with new staff)

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I wouldn't necessarily have him on this list because I think this has already happened to Mendenhall. I don't expect him to be a significant factor in 2012 and I wouldn't be totally shocked if he was never a team's starter again.

Man is Mendenhall a buy low. Thomas Jones got three cracks at a starters' gig, and Cedric Benson and Marshawn Lynch both got do-overs. Mendenhall has shown more at this point of his career, and is probably better than all three of those guys.

I could be wrong but I dont recall any of those guys tearing their ACL in week17 of a season. Also I think Lynch is just as good as Mendy.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I could be wrong but I dont recall any of those guys tearing their ACL in week17 of a season. Also I think Lynch is just as good as Mendy.

Did you think that two years ago?Regardless, worrying about ACLs is so 2005. We've moved on to sub-12 month fixes for freakin' achilles at this point.

 

[finito]

I could be wrong but I dont recall any of those guys tearing their ACL in week17 of a season. Also I think Lynch is just as good as Mendy.

Did you think that two years ago?Regardless, worrying about ACLs is so 2005. We've moved on to sub-12 month fixes for freakin' achilles at this point.

So you're saying Mendy will be ready to start the season? He's not going to be himself until 2013. Next year is going to be a loss for the most part.

 

[Shutout]

Add every RB in the league except for McCoy to this list.

And Arian Foster. Assuming RBs stay healthy and not predicting injury for any RB, these two would have to be the guys most locked into vital and secure spots on their teams. Shady is Shady; the man for his team with no true threat. Foster, even with the presence of Ben Tate, showed that he is THE MAN every week in Houston. And since they have Tate, they are actually one of the teams LESS likely to bring in another RB. So, for these two guys...more of the same in 2012.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

So you're saying Mendy will be ready to start the season? He's not going to be himself until 2013. Next year is going to be a loss for the most part.

I'm not saying that - was trying to be a little over the top. But sports medicine has obviously gotten much better in the last decade so it wouldn't surprise me. If Welker can do it, and Dem Thomas can rally from a torn achilles why not Mendenhall?But the statement I was responding to was that Mendenhall might never start again. It seems a lot more likely to me that he'll start 10+ games in 2012 than it is he'll never be a #1 again.

 

[BeTheMatch]

So you're saying Mendy will be ready to start the season? He's not going to be himself until 2013. Next year is going to be a loss for the most part.

I'm not saying that - was trying to be a little over the top. But sports medicine has obviously gotten much better in the last decade so it wouldn't surprise me. If Welker can do it, and Dem Thomas can rally from a torn achilles why not Mendenhall?But the statement I was responding to was that Mendenhall might never start again. It seems a lot more likely to me that he'll start 10+ games in 2012 than it is he'll never be a #1 again.

What I don't get is why there is so much "reporting" out there that AP has a real good chance to be ready Week 1, but Mendenhall won't play at all in 2012.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

So you're saying Mendy will be ready to start the season? He's not going to be himself until 2013. Next year is going to be a loss for the most part.

I'm not saying that - was trying to be a little over the top. But sports medicine has obviously gotten much better in the last decade so it wouldn't surprise me. If Welker can do it, and Dem Thomas can rally from a torn achilles why not Mendenhall?But the statement I was responding to was that Mendenhall might never start again. It seems a lot more likely to me that he'll start 10+ games in 2012 than it is he'll never be a #1 again.

What I don't get is why there is so much "reporting" out there that AP has a real good chance to be ready Week 1, but Mendenhall won't play at all in 2012.

Yeah and ADps injury was much worse. He has more mileage on him but he's probably the better athlete, but Mendy is younger.Either way, I thinking both start the season on PUP lists and we will be lucky to see them week7.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Add every RB in the league except for McCoy to this list.

And Arian Foster. Assuming RBs stay healthy and not predicting injury for any RB, these two would have to be the guys most locked into vital and secure spots on their teams. Shady is Shady; the man for his team with no true threat. Foster, even with the presence of Ben Tate, showed that he is THE MAN every week in Houston. And since they have Tate, they are actually one of the teams LESS likely to bring in another RB. So, for these two guys...more of the same in 2012.

Foster has an injury history, which makes him more at risk IMO.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

What I don't get is why there is so much "reporting" out there that AP has a real good chance to be ready Week 1, but Mendenhall won't play at all in 2012.

The Steelers' GM made the comment that he didn't like to count on ACLs healing for a year. The usual suspects took that statement, applied their usual 'logic' and then ran with headlines that Mendenhall could miss all of 2012. There's nothing to it. Except sensational and logic-free headline writers, per usual.Mendenhall will probably start on the PUP, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was ready earlier than that either. Simple ACL with nine months before Week 1 seems to mean he'll have a shot the way things have been going lately.

 

[finito]

What I don't get is why there is so much "reporting" out there that AP has a real good chance to be ready Week 1, but Mendenhall won't play at all in 2012.

The Steelers' GM made the comment that he didn't like to count on ACLs healing for a year. The usual suspects took that statement, applied their usual 'logic' and then ran with headlines that Mendenhall could miss all of 2012. There's nothing to it. Except sensational and logic-free headline writers, per usual.Mendenhall will probably start on the PUP, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was ready earlier than that either. Simple ACL with nine months before Week 1 seems to mean he'll have a shot the way things have been going lately.

But he won't be very good if he comes back by week 1. If we use Wes Welker as an example of the soonest he can come back, Welker had by far his worst season as a Patriot after coming back from a late torn ACL. He didn't get into a real groove until later in the season, and IIRC even admitted he didn't feel right at the beginning of the year. Mendy won't miss the entire season, I don't know many who think that, but he won't be himself for a while... and, he wasn't that great before the injury IMO. He was not impressive in 2011, so I don't know why he would come back from a torn ACL and be better.

 

[Buckna]

Add every RB in the league except for McCoy to this list.

And Arian Foster. Assuming RBs stay healthy and not predicting injury for any RB, these two would have to be the guys most locked into vital and secure spots on their teams. Shady is Shady; the man for his team with no true threat. Foster, even with the presence of Ben Tate, showed that he is THE MAN every week in Houston. And since they have Tate, they are actually one of the teams LESS likely to bring in another RB. So, for these two guys...more of the same in 2012.

Although the percentage chance is small, there is a possibility that Foster will not be a Texan much longer. He wants a big payday and Houston is cap-strapped. If he is designated a RFA this year in order to save money, some team may be willing to give him a big contract and give up their 1st rounder. Franchising him is a possibility too but will make things very difficult for Houston to resign anyone else.My guess is they RFA him and roll the dice that no one tries to sign him away. However, that will likely make his pricetag on a new contract even higher this time next year.