[DYNASTY] 2009 Top 12 Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Goodson is a sleeper, not a guy you should invest an early pick in.

Even with a monster combine his upside is probably in the third round of the NFL draft (similar to Jamaal Charles and Jerious Norwood). Given that he has character concerns on top of his size question marks, he could easily fall to the 5th round.

 

[corpcow]

Just wondering, have any of you guys read Malcolm Gladwell's new book Outliers? The book as a whole is meh, but there are some interesting, relevant points here.

One of Gladwell's core points is sort of like diminishing returns - at a certain point, you are smart/fast/big/etc enough and it's other factors that determine whether you will be successful. That is, if you take two guys, one with a 120 IQ and one with a 180 IQ, it doesn't necessarily mean that the 180 IQ is going to be more successful - you have to consider the circumstances in totality. (I'm not referring to his other factors here, just that this point that a lot of times we shouldn't compare things absolutely, just seeing if they are good enough to be NFL prospects).

I say this is relevant because every year we get caught up on measurables. Chris Henry is a great example - a 5'11", 230 lb guy with 235 lbs really should have been a stud right? Meanwhile, everyone said Chris Johnson was too small despite the speed.... or that Boldin and Colston weren't fast enough... and so on.

I think you may be able to look at this objectively, but I don't think you can do it by BMI / weight / etc alone. I think past production, how raw/polished a player is, work ethic & heart (not sure how you would measure this objectively), coachability (another tougher one to really objectively measure) need to be factored in. It's a situation where we can weight each of these factors at some level, where things like height, weight and speed outside of a certain range may *disqualify* a player from being a stud, but anything faster than say 4.55 might be fine.

 

[corpcow]

The history of these character question-mark guys isn't so hot though. Just off the top of my head... RBs who had major red flags of one sort or another pre-draft...Lawrence PhillipsOnterrio SmithMaurice ClarettCecil CollinsWilliam GreenAnd even if you think one Randy Moss makes up for all that, but I don't think I'd burn a high pick on one of these guys.

Sure but if he falls to a late round 1st round/early 2nd (depending on where he falls), that upside could be worthwhile.

Maybe a late 2nd or 3rd or something like that. But I want to hit more than 20-25% with my #1s if I'm an NFL team. First round picks are risky enough because they're so valuable and when you whiff it really hurts. No sense piling more risk onto that IMO. Unless you think you're dealing with a exceptionally elite talent (like Moss, btw) I just don't see how you can justify it.

Ahh, didn't realize you guys had him so low. I haven't really been up to speed on real values here, I was just reacting to the RB5 ranking which would normally make him a first round pick for FF purposes.(Oh, and I was referring to a late first FF pick, not late first NFL pick).

 

[corpcow]

Goodson is a sleeper, not a guy you should invest an early pick in.Even with a monster combine his upside is probably in the third round of the NFL draft (similar to Jamaal Charles and Jerious Norwood). Given that he has character concerns on top of his size question marks, he could easily fall to the 5th round.

I was talking about FF picks, not NFL... but where would you put him for FF purposes right now, generally speaking?

 

[EBF]

Just wondering, have any of you guys read Malcolm Gladwell's new book Outliers? The book as a whole is meh, but there are some interesting, relevant points here. One of Gladwell's core points is sort of like diminishing returns - at a certain point, you are smart/fast/big/etc enough and it's other factors that determine whether you will be successful. That is, if you take two guys, one with a 120 IQ and one with a 180 IQ, it doesn't necessarily mean that the 180 IQ is going to be more successful - you have to consider the circumstances in totality. (I'm not referring to his other factors here, just that this point that a lot of times we shouldn't compare things absolutely, just seeing if they are good enough to be NFL prospects).I say this is relevant because every year we get caught up on measurables. Chris Henry is a great example - a 5'11", 230 lb guy with 235 lbs really should have been a stud right? Meanwhile, everyone said Chris Johnson was too small despite the speed.... or that Boldin and Colston weren't fast enough... and so on. I think you may be able to look at this objectively, but I don't think you can do it by BMI / weight / etc alone. I think past production, how raw/polished a player is, work ethic & heart (not sure how you would measure this objectively), coachability (another tougher one to really objectively measure) need to be factored in. It's a situation where we can weight each of these factors at some level, where things like height, weight and speed outside of a certain range may *disqualify* a player from being a stud, but anything faster than say 4.55 might be fine.

I think it depends on several factors. Different positions have different requirements. QB is a tricky position. It's pretty clear that while physical tools are important, they're not sufficient for success. Moreover, there's a huge number of unheralded guys who have come out of nowhere to have solid careers (Warner, Garcia, Hasselbeck, Bulger, Schaub, Brady, Romo, etc). What this tells me is that success at QB is largely the result of intangibles. Arm strength is important, but it's not nearly as important as that mystical "it" factor. You can't measure that with a stopwatch and it's pretty clear that collegiate success doesn't have a lot to do with it. RB is a different story. I think success at this position depends almost entirely on raw physical ability. Yes, instincts are important, but if you're a productive college back and you have elite combine numbers then you're almost certainly going to be effective at the next level. On the flipside, relatively few RBs with marginal physical tools become great NFL starters. Frank Gore is really the only one I can think of right now and you can argue that his poor workout numbers were the result of lingering injuries.WR falls somewhere in between. I think the important thing to realize here is that there are different "types" of WR that each demand a different set of physical abilities. Yes, you do see some successful slow WRs, but what's often overlooked is that most of these guys fall into the power/possession playing style (Boldin, Cotchery, Colston, Bowe). You don't see a lot of successful 5'11" 180 WRs who run a 4.6. The general rule is that if you're small, you'd better be fast and if you're slow, you'd better be big and quick. It's also important to draw a distinction between 40 speed and game speed. Chad Johnson ran a 4.6 before the draft. Bernard Berrian ran a 4.5. Anyone who's seen those guys play can vouch for the fact that their game speed is MUCH better than their timed speed. So while they have "slow" 40 times for a WR, they're not actually slow.

 

[Cookiemonster]

You also have to be able to draw a distinction between 40 speed and game speed. Chad Johnson ran a 4.6 before the draft. Bernard Berrian ran a 4.5. Anyone who's seen those guys play can vouch for the fact that their game speed is MUCH better than their timed speed. So while they have "slow" 40 times for a WR, they're not actually slow.

Exactly why I could give a crap about 40 times 'till they start running them in pads. Even better would be a 20 yard hurdle with a mini cone drill & another 20 yard sprint in pads combined into one event.

 

[madd futher]

The history of these character question-mark guys isn't so hot though. Just off the top of my head... RBs who had major red flags of one sort or another pre-draft...Lawrence PhillipsOnterrio SmithMaurice ClarettCecil CollinsWilliam GreenAnd even if you think one Randy Moss makes up for all that, but I don't think I'd burn a high pick on one of these guys.

Sure but if he falls to a late round 1st round/early 2nd (depending on where he falls), that upside could be worthwhile.

Maybe a late 2nd or 3rd or something like that. But I want to hit more than 20-25% with my #1s if I'm an NFL team. First round picks are risky enough because they're so valuable and when you whiff it really hurts. No sense piling more risk onto that IMO. Unless you think you're dealing with a exceptionally elite talent (like Moss, btw) I just don't see how you can justify it.

For all his natural talent, I see Goodson falling lower than that. Here's the downside: Scouts will downgrade him slightly for his size and even moreso in combination with his injury history. More concerning is his year-to-year drop in rushing yards - especially in his drop in in ypc each year (7 ypc Frosh, 4.6 ypc Soph, and a miserable 4.3 ypc Jr yr) Not good for a speed back. Obviously some can be explained by his injuries and by the complete turnover in the Aggies 0-line. But he will also have to answer questions regarding his relationship with Coach Mike Sherman, as he didn't leave the Aggies on the best of terms. There are rumors of 'attitude problems' and that he may have been asked (told) not to return for his Senior year.The only way for him to go 3rd round IMO is if he satisfies the scouts during the interview process and runs in the 4.3s.I've observed Mayocks 'lists' over the last several years and have noticed his early lists have several 'risk/reward' guys like Goodson. I think these early lists are mainly 'thought pieces' that are more indicitive of raw talent rather than where he really thinks they might ultimately be drafted. I think he does it to create a broader interest leading up to the draft. By draft day, with his connections, his lists tend to be very accurate barometers of where a player really WILL be drafted - he really nails many of them on draft day. This is because he is really ' plugged in' to the decision makers and scouts in the league. So his last lists reflect less on his own scouting prowess and more on his insider knowledge.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Exactly why I could give a crap about 40 times 'till they start running them in pads. Even better would be a 20 yard hurdle with a mini cone drill & another 20 yard sprint in pads combined into one event.

Actually what EBF said is right IMO. There's definitely a minimum speed each player needs to run to be effective. As far as I can tell it's unique to each guy based on his size and a couple other characteristics. But the 40 is the single best measure for RBs after you have a decent read on all that other stuff.It's 100% irrelevant for WRs. Witness Fitz splitting the D like a runaway train in the Super Bowl for one example of why it just doesn't matter.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Exactly why I could give a crap about 40 times 'till they start running them in pads. Even better would be a 20 yard hurdle with a mini cone drill & another 20 yard sprint in pads combined into one event.

Actually what EBF said is right IMO. There's definitely a minimum speed each player needs to run to be effective. As far as I can tell it's unique to each guy based on his size and a couple other characteristics. But the 40 is the single best measure for RBs after you have a decent read on all that other stuff.It's 100% irrelevant for WRs. Witness Fitz splitting the D like a runaway train in the Super Bowl for one example of why it just doesn't matter.

In shorts, I always ran 4.9-4.7 but in pads I ran with the 4.5 guys. To some, carrying the extra weight doesn't hinder their speed and so a 40 yard dash in shorts doesn't seem appropriate to me. I agree, in that my shorts/pads time difference of .3 is about the maximum deviation -- so a guy running a 4.7 is at best a 4.4 and won't be any better than that. I agree that for a NFL RB, anything over a 4.7 is pretty much a death sentance but I won't skew my rankings because one guy ran a 4.55 and another ran a 4.45.

 

[madd futher]

40 time may not really impact the 'power' backs all that much, but if the guy is 195-205, he better have the vision and quicks to make people miss in space, and the raw speed to take it to the house. Here's where speed is the difference between an NFL RB and an insurance salesman.