EBF
Footballguy
A couple quick thoughts before I post the list:
- I think there's a clear top 5 this year followed by a massive dropoff. The unexpected demise of Jonathan Dwyer as an elite prospect has turned the 1.06 rookie pick into a minefield. Unless you really must have someone at that spot, it might be a good idea to move down a few rungs and get some added value.
- The key to doing well in this year's draft is probably figuring out the second round. As was the case in 2008, there's a massive cluster of guys who all offer a similar amount of value on paper. If you can figure out which of these receiver prospects are DeSean Jackson/Eddie Royal and which are Limas Sweed/James Hardy, you'll really benefit. When you look at my rankings, it's less important to look at the number than it is to read the description of the player.
- Although I won't say a whole lot about the TEs here, this is a deep class with nearly 10 guys who might offer starting NFL potential. This diminishes the value of the guys at the top, but I still think Gresham is worth special treatment because he's the only first round prospect of the lot and one of the few who has an easy path to an unquestioned starting role.
- These rankings are intended for PPR dynasty leagues with standard scoring. If your league places added emphasis on the QB and/or TE positions, you'll have to factor that in on your own.
TIER ONE
1. WR Dez Bryant, Cowboys - If you’re only concerned with immediate production and next year’s trade value, Ryan Mathews should be your guy here. If you’re looking for the best long term talent, Dez Bryant is the pick. He has a freakish combination of size and mobility. He can get downfield and make acrobatic catches like Reggie Wayne, and he’s 25 pounds heavier. He can punish people underneath and pick up yards after the catch like Anquan Boldin, and he’s significantly faster. This guy will be a matchup nightmare for pro corners and while you have to wonder how soon he’ll produce with Austin/Witten vulturing many of his targets, there’s no doubting his talent. A surefire perennial top 10 receiver if he stays healthy and works hard.
2. RB Ryan Mathews, Chargers - Mathews is the top redraft rookie, particularly in non-PPR formats. He steps into a loaded offense that should alleviate some of the defensive pressure and provide him with a high number of touchdown opportunities. Mathews is a bit of a straight-line runner, but his quickness is adequate and he offers an elite combination of straight line speed and running strength. Like Beanie Wells and Rashard Mendenhall in years past, Mathews is a very safe projection because of his rare size/speed/skill combination. When healthy, he will be a fringe top 10-15 back in FF leagues with additional upside thanks to his situation. The only major concern is durability. Mathews had trouble staying healthy in college and his physical running style and propensity for seeking contact could see him sidelined more than your average back.
3. RB Jahvid Best, Lions - Best has been a late riser up my board in the past couple weeks. While he lacks the prototypical bulk and lower body strength that you look for in a featured back, he’s 200 pounds on a 5'10 frame and he looks like he might be able to add 5-10 pounds as he matures (he’s only 21, almost two years younger than Mathews). What he lacks in size he makes up for in other categories. Jahvid has the best lateral agility of any prospect in this class. He has great long speed, an explosive first step, and extremely loose hips. This combination makes him deadly in the open field and a constant threat to break big plays. He might not ever become a true featured back, but it’s not out of the question and his elite skills in the passing game could make him a dynamic starter in PPR leagues. He has some of the best route running potential and pass catching skills of any back I’ve seen in the past several years, to the point where you’d almost think he could make it in the NFL as a slot receiver. I think he can catch 50 balls next season. Add in 150-200 explosive carries and you’ve got a guy who could be a surprise top 10-15 back as a rookie like Pac-10 predecessors Maurice Drew and Reggie Bush. The Lions made a mistake when they passed on Percy Harvin last year, but they atoned for it here by finding a running back who can offer more out of the backfield and approximate Harvin's contributions in the receiving game.
4. RB CJ Spiller, Bills - I’ve flip-flopped on Spiller throughout the process of evaluating these rookies. While I love his big play skills and explosiveness, I think he’s a much higher risk prospect for FF purposes than public perception might lead you to believe. Spiller’s best attribute is his straight line speed. He’s the fastest back in this draft class with the pads on. When he gets a seam, he can pull away effortlessly. He broke a lot of big plays in college and I have no doubt that he’s going to yield some highlight reel moments in the NFL. He’s a good pass catcher and he’ll offer added value as a receiver. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he’s an atypical RB prospect, lacking conventional bulk and inside running skills. This description also applies to Jahvid Best, but Best is a lot more fluid in tight spaces (I think this is a body type issue, as Spiller appears to have longer legs relative to his height). If you want to make an optimistic comparison you can invoke the name of Chris Johnson, another unconventional speedster who became a superstar. If you want to make a pessimistic comparison, you can cite Darren McFadden, a former top 10 pick who lacked the essential running back skills needed to complement his elite track speed. I think the reality lies somewhere in between. Spiller is a talented football player who will make his fair share of explosive plays for the Bills, but he’s probably not an every down back and his value on special teams has inflated his perceived value a little bit. Moreover, the Bills are an inept organization with no direction or identity on offense. I kind of get the sense that Spiller might struggle to maximize his potential in this situation. Conventional wisdom says Best is a slightly lesser version of Spiller, but my hunch is that it’s the other way around.
5. WR Demaryius Thomas, Broncos - Did Thomas deserve to be drafted ahead of Dez Bryant? No. Is he the second best receiver prospect in this draft and one of the only guys in this entire class who has the potential to become a number one target in the NFL? Yes. Critics will call Thomas a project and cite his lack of consistent hands and route running skills, but this was a highly productive player in college and all of the raw athletic parts are there. He has an elite frame at 6'3 220+ pounds and he moves well for his size. He doesn’t quite have the pitter-patter make-you-miss ability of Anquan Boldin or Dez Bryant, but he’s not as stiff in the open field as some would lead you to believe. Where he really excels is in the downfield passing game. He has a legitimate burst to get separation on deep routes and he demonstrates the body control needed to win jump balls over defenders. I’m a little concerned about the QB situation in Denver, but Thomas is the best talent left on the board at the five slot and I like his long term potential.
TIER TWO
6. QB Sam Bradford, Rams - This is where the draft really opens up for me. You can certainly justify rolling the dice on Benn or Tate/Hardesty here, but 4-5 players of their skill level enter the draft every season whereas Bradford represents a more rare commodity: a #1 overall pick and potential franchise QB. I’m not wild about taking a QB this high because the odds say you’re just as likely to get Alex Smith/David Carr as you are Peyton Manning/Carson Palmer and there’s no shortage of question marks about Bradford. He played on a team laden with NFL talent in a spread offense that positioned him for success. In addition to answering questions about his durability, Bradford will need to prove that he can run a pro style offense and make difficult decisions under heavy duress, something he wasn’t asked to do very often for a powerhouse Sooners team that simply steamrolled most of the teams on its schedule due to superior overall talent. Despite all of these concerns, I think Bradford is a compelling QB prospect. He has pinpoint accuracy and seemingly offers the mental intangibles to effectively manage the offense and make the difficult plays under pressure. It’s going to take him a while to get rolling and the supporting cast in St. Louis is not very dangerous, but this team is going to build around this guy and give him every opportunity to succeed. They’ll add weapons down the road. For now you’ve got a backup QB with long term starter upside. I don’t have enough faith in the remaining players to take one of them over a guy who was the top pick in the entire draft.
7. RB Ben Tate, Texans - Do you feel lucky? I hope so, because we’ve now entered the casino portion of the rookie draft, where one pull of the slot machine could make you an instant millionaire or leave your pockets empty until next year. Ben Tate is this year’s ultimate boom-or-bust pick. Blessed with a rare combination of bulk and speed, Tate helped his draft stock by leaps and bounds with a tremendous performance at the combine. He ran blazing 40 times and jumped out of the gym in drills. The Texans liked him enough to trade up and grab him in the late 2nd round. Given the uncertain state of their running game, there’s no doubt that Tate will be given every opportunity to prove that he can be the lead back for Houston. Will he succeed? That’s the tricky part. Tate has very good speed for his size and he had a productive senior season, but his elusiveness is marginal and he was a fairly mediocre player in college prior to his final year. If he was so good, why didn’t he dominate earlier in his career? Some feel that Tate is an underachiever with poor football instincts. My hunch is that he will never become an elite pro, but that he’ll be a serviceable back whose situation might temporarily elevate him to FF prominence. As was the case with Brandon Jackson and Clinton Portis, we will most likely find out whether or not he can play immediately because he will be given every opportunity to win a significant role in this offense right out of the gate.
8. RB Montario Hardesty, Browns - Like Tate, Hardesty is another prospect whose tremendous workout numbers and productive senior season dramatically improved his draft stock. That said, Hardesty is a slightly different animal than Tate. He has less upside, but he’s a safer prospect. He has all of the skills you look for in a featured RB. He can catch passes out of the backfield, he can run tough inside, he has quick feet, and he’s dynamic enough to break a long play here and there. So why isn’t he ranked higher? Because while Hardesty doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, he also doesn’t have any great strengths. He’s a C+/B- grade talent who will most likely be an adequate pro starter without being exceptional, meaning his job security will be in constant danger. I think he’s similar to Joseph Addai, but he’s stuck in a directionless Cleveland offense that offers little cause for excitement. By the time the Browns are good, Hardesty might have already lost his job to whichever superior talent eventually supplants him. The fact that Hardesty was the backup for three years behind Arian Foster at Tennessee only further cements my belief that he’s not a special talent. So while he might give you adequate numbers for a couple years ala Matt Forte or Joseph Addai, that looks like the best case scenario and he’s probably not going to be part of your team’s foundation in the long run.
9. WR Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers - I want to like Arrelious Benn. I really do. Coming out of high school, he was touted as one of the best WR prospects of his generation. He showed flashes of brilliance throughout his college career, highlighted by a terrific sophomore season that saw him catch 67 balls for 1055. Many pundits projected him as a potential top 15 pick entering his junior year, but a disastrous 2009 season ended that talk. Now Benn finds himself headed to Tampa Bay after the Bucs used an early 2nd round pick on him, presumably with the intention of making him Josh Freeman’s go-to guy. Benn has a big, sturdy frame with adequate speed and lateral agility. Some onlookers have compared him to Anquan Boldin because he excels at catching short passes underneath and making plays with the ball in his hands. I think he has some similarities to Boldin and Hines Ward, but I also think he’s an underachiever whose movement lacks precision and suddenness. Benn is not going to beat many NFL defenders downfield and he’s generally not a threat to make the acrobatic catch on a jump ball. I have to rank him as the third best WR in this class because he was the third true WR drafted and many people think he’s an underrated talent who could be a better pro than collegian. Still, my hunch is that Benn is a bit of a chronic underachiever who doesn’t play up to his seemingly huge ability. In that sense I see some shades of Roy Williams, although the two players have very different styles. Ultimately, I might say Benn is a poor man’s Boldin: a guy who will play many years as a starter in the league and catch his fair share of balls in the short passing game, but probably never become the dominant number one the Bucs are looking for.
10. TE Jermaine Gresham, Bengals - At this stage of the draft Gresham is the last first round talent on the board unless you count Tim Tebow. I’m not usually a big fan of taking TEs with first round picks (or even second round picks) in rookie drafts because they typically don’t carry much trade value even if they pan out, but the recent track record for TE prospects chosen in the first round of the NFL draft is fairly strong. Very few of these guys become complete busts and most of them at least achieve fringe TE1 status in FF leagues for a year or two. That’s not exactly an exciting proposition, but if you have a need at the position or you play in a league that favors TE scoring then I like Gresham in the 6-10 range. He’s a big target with good lower body strength to bounce off tackles and lumber for yards after the catch. Although he lacks the elite quickness and burst of Tony Gonzalez or Kellen Winslow, he’s very fluid for such a tall target and he’ll present a difficult matchup for linebackers and safeties who surrender several inches in height and arm length to him. If he can learn how to block in training camp, he’ll most likely crack the lineup immediately and emerge as a startable TE in FF leagues in 2011. Could he be another mild disappointment like Marcedes Lewis? Will you regret picking him this high when one of those 3rd round WRs becomes a breakout star? Sure, but we don’t know exactly which of those second tier prospects will succeed yet. Gresham is a much safer bet to become a contributor.
TIER THREE
11. RB Toby Gerhart, Vikings - Gerhart is a punishing power back with excellent running strength and enough mobility to smoothly change direction behind his blockers. On the surface Minnesota is a strange fit for him, but it actually makes a lot of sense. He’ll soften up defenses for Adrian Peterson and provide a legitimate replacement in the event of injury. I expect him to make a positive NFL impact, but FF players will have to be very patient with him because there’s absolutely zero chance of him beating out Adrian Peterson for the starting job. He’ll most likely get 5-10 carries per game when Peterson is healthy and he won’t ever become an NFL starter unless he gets traded or signs with a new team when his rookie deal is up. He’s already 23 years old, so by the time he finds his own starting job he’ll probably be 26-28 (if it ever even happens). This makes Gerhart a tough prospect to get excited about for FF purposes. He’s a good player and he’ll look nice on your bench, but he’s not going to make a big impact to your starting lineup barring a major injury or a surprise situational development. Still, getting a high quality second round NFL RB at this range of your rookie draft is decent value, so I don’t mind picking Gerhart here and hoping that his opportunity expands. If I didn’t need a developmental RB, I might roll the dice on one of the WRs instead.
12. RB Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers - Were we all wrong about Jonathan Dwyer? Entering the season many pundits had him projected as a first round pick in this draft thanks to his combination of power, speed, and production. Everything was going fine until the combine, when Dwyer showed up looking soft and doughy before logging pathetic marks in every drill. His stock plummeted and we started hearing rumblings that he had been getting third round grades from NFL evaluators even before he bombed in Indianapolis. Dwyer fell like a rock in the draft until the Steelers ended his misery in the 6th round with the 188th pick overall. Maybe Dwyer just isn’t very good, maybe some off-field issues caused him to drop in the draft, maybe there weren’t enough teams with RB needs, or maybe it was some combination of all of those factors. There’s no doubt that Dwyer isn’t the elite franchise RB he was touted as just a few short months ago, but at this stage of the draft I like his upside enough to roll the dice knowing that he could very easily be worthless a year from now. On the field Dwyer is a big back who shows a second gear to run away from defenses. He doesn’t have a great initial burst, but his quickness is adequate and he shows the fluid hips needed to change directions smoothly. His best asset is his power. Dwyer is a tank who can bounce off tackles and get second chance yards. In a best case scenario he might replicate the career of Michael Turner, another college star who tumbled in the draft and landed in a bad situation behind a young starter before eventually emerging as an NFL starter in his own right. Dwyer is not the safest pick on the board at this stage of the draft, but he’s the best “swing for the fences” option here.
13. WR Golden Tate, Seahawks - Tate is a solid prospect in a good situation on a team whose best veteran receivers are past their prime. He will have the opportunity to become one of the top three receivers on the depth chart immediately. I have previously doubted his playing speed and wondered whether his lack of height might hinder his success at the pro level. It’s true that I see a bit of Josh Reed in him, but Tate’s quality performance at the scouting combine proved that he’s a cut above Reed athletically. Tate has good stopwatch speed to go along with good toughness, run after the catch skills, and production. In a best case scenario I could see him developing into another Laveranues Coles, but he’s not a slam dunk prospect by any means. The fact that he fell deep into the second round despite his production and workout numbers says something about the league’s perception of his talent. Still, Tate was the fourth receiver drafted and he offers the potential to develop into a good NFL starter. He represents a fair gamble at this stage of the draft.
14. WR Andre Roberts, Cardinals - A gifted punt returner and slot receiver, Roberts is a virtual clone of Eddie Royal, which may or may not be a good thing depending on your perspective. Like Royal, Roberts is a silky smooth route runner with excellent change of direction and body control. Also like Royal, Roberts is a small target whose lack of elite size could have him pigeon-holed as a slot receiver and return specialist in the NFL. Therein lies the rub. Roberts is going to be a solid player in the NFL, but he might not necessarily be a solid player in FF. Royal has been condemned to a supporting role despite his talent and a similar fate might be in store for Roberts. The Cardinals have an elite number one receiver and two other guys who are potentially good enough to keep Roberts on the bench. So while I think he’s a solid player, it’s difficult to get a grasp on his FF value. Other guys on this list have a similar pedigree and a clearer path to immediate relevance, but I like Roberts enough to take him here even if it means being frustrated as his talent languishes on the bench or in a supporting role.
15. WR Eric Decker, Broncos - Remember when Plaxico Burress was Pittsburgh’s big play guy while Hines Ward was their possession receiver? Both players thrived, each topping the 1000 yard mark in 2001 and 2002. I could see something similar eventually happening in Denver, where Decker is the short yardage guy to complement the downfield threat of Demaryius Thomas. Decker is not an explosive player, but he’s a fluid athlete with good size/strength and production. A true playmaker with strong hands, Decker is renowned for his consistent ability to catch the football. In the early rookie drafts I’m seeing, Decker is falling out of the top 20-25 picks in a lot of leagues. I think he represents a great bargain there and I like him more than many of the receivers who are being picked ahead of him. He’s more polished than Demaryius Thomas and he could crack Denver’s starting lineup within two years. On the downside, Decker is never going to be a dominant number one receiver and he could end up relegated to mediocrity like Kevin Walter. Walter is a solid NFL player, but not a desirable candidate for your starting lineup in FF leagues. That description could eventually describe Decker, but there’s enough potential for a Jerricho Cotchery or Hines Ward career trajectory to justify a 2nd round rookie pick.
16. WR Mike Williams, Buccaneers - This is the highest I have ever ranked Williams, the immensely productive former Syracuse star who quit the team in the middle of the season. There are obvious red flags surrounding this prospect, but when I look at this year’s class and ask myself which of these guys could conceivably become a #1 target in the NFL, Williams is one of the few players who seems to offer that potential. At 6'2" 221, Williams has a big frame coupled with great overall athletic ability and good initial quickness. He’s not a burner, but he has the strength and burst to be an effective possession receiver at the next level. On the downside, he lacks technique, runs his routes too upright, and gets by solely on raw athletic ability. Last year there were three NFL teams who drafted two receivers in the first four rounds. The Dolphins took Patrick Turner in the 3rd round and Brian Hartline in the 4th round. The Browns took Brian Robiskie in the 2nd round and Mohamed Massaquoi later in the same frame. The Chicago Bears took Juaquin Iglesias in the 3rd round and Johnny Knox in the 4th round. In every case, the WR drafted later greatly outshined his counterpart. I had a hunch that this would happen with Iglesias/Knox and Robiskie/Massaquoi. I think it could happen again this year with Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. Williams has comparable physical talent and unlike Benn, he consistently produced in college despite a mediocre supporting cast. He’s far from a sure thing and he will have to hold up his end of the bargain from a character standpoint, but if you’re looking for upside out of a second round rookie pick then Williams is someone to consider. The fact that he was a 4th round NFL draft pick despite a litany of character issues speaks volumes about his ability.
17. WR Brandon LaFell, Panthers - Like Mohamed Massaquoi last year, LaFell is a mystifying player whose production and consistency don’t match his obvious NFL caliber talent. LaFell is a tall receiver who has a legitimate upfield burst despite mediocre stopwatch speed. He will provide the Panthers with a downfield threat who can also turn short passes into long gains with his ability to turn and run after the catch. I think he has a higher ceiling than all of the receivers who were picked in the third round of the NFL draft this year, but he’s not nearly as consistent catching the ball as guys like Decker/Roberts/DWilliams. As a result, you have to wonder if he’s going to be a frustrating NFL player who offers occasional islands of brilliance in oceans of mediocrity. In a best case scenario you might end up with a Roddy White kind of player. In a worst case scenario he will be more like White’s teammate Michael Jenkins, another high draft pick who never dominated despite his compelling height/speed combo. LaFell is a good option in the 10-15 range because of his upside, but he’s definitely a bit of a boom-or-bust player.
18. WR Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers - I had previously compared Sanders to Mike Wallace, which is funny now that he has been drafted in the late third round (the same place Wallace went last year), to the Pittsburgh Steelers (the same team that drafted Wallace), to become their #3 receiver (the same role Wallace filled last year). Like Wallace, Sanders is a speedy downfield target with a slender frame. He catches the ball very cleanly and was a highly productive college player. Wallace should step into the lineup and immediately produce. Like Wallace, the main question about Sanders is whether or not he can become more than a complementary guy and thrive on the outside against starting NFL corners. I see him as more of a WR2/WR3 than a potential franchise receiver, but in Pittsburgh’s explosive passing attack that could be good enough for him to become a starting candidate in most FF leagues.
19. WR Mardy Gilyard, Rams - Gilyard is a productive receiver whose slight frame and lack of footspeed caused him to fall in the draft. A playmaker on gameday, Gilyard has good body control and excellent initial quickness to get separation and make difficult catches. At his best he resembles Jets WR Santonio Holmes, but Gilyard doesn’t have the same legitimate downfield speed and he’s not built as solid. He might have trouble against press coverage at the next level and the average speed that served him will in the college game might become a liability in the NFL. Gilyard also has the bad habit of letting passes get into his body, which could lead to some drops at the next level (though I never saw him drop a ball in a real game in college). Overall, Gilyard is a quality player whose underwhelming workout numbers kept him out of the draft’s top 100 picks. He could develop into a nice #2 receiver for the Rams and if Bradford pans out, they could form a pretty dynamic duo.
20. WR Damian Williams, Titans - Williams is a size/speed tweener who has a nice initial burst despite lacking great sustained speed. He was a productive college player who has a big enough frame to become a starting outside receiver in the NFL. Pundits cite his route running as a strength. I think his long legs give him some trouble when he has to change directions in a hurry laterally, but he’s a solid overall prospect who’s good in many areas without offering any single exceptional skill. I view him as a poor man’s Jeremy Maclin, although he might offer a little bit more than Maclin in the possession receiver department. Given Tennessee’s lack of talent at the WR position, Williams should crack their starting lineup sooner rather than later and provide a nice complement to Kenny Britt. I just don't see much upside and he's not a player that I've ever really liked despite the fact that he has always been highly-regarded.
21. WR Taylor Price, Patriots - Price is a fluid receiver whose strong postseason showing at the combine and Senior Bowl greatly improved his draft stock. Built well at 6' 204 pounds with low 4.4 speed, Price is something of an enigma because he never dominated his poor college competition despite his talent. Price runs well and demonstrates the smooth body control and change of direction needed to become an effective route runner in the NFL. From an athletic standpoint all of the parts are there, but I can’t shake the hunch that Price is nothing more than a complementary target at the NFL level in the mold of Justin McCareins or Johnny Knox. Still, a quality prospect with the potential to develop into a starter in the NFL.
22. QB Jimmy Clausen, Panthers - Clausen’s draft tumble suggests that he’s viewed as more of a Kevin Kolb/Chad Henne/Drew Stanton level prospect than the surefire first round QB the media touted him as. This doesn’t mean that he can’t eventually become a franchise passer in the NFL, but it means you should probably disavow yourself of the notion that he’s an elite talent. Many people have questioned Clausen’s maturity, leadership, and mental intangibles. From a football standpoint, pundits like his accuracy, but question his arm strength and physical ability. Clausen is a bit on the small side for the position and his deep passes have been known to flutter. He didn’t win many big games in college and, like former Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn, benefitted from a tremendous supporting cast that included two NFL caliber receivers and a future NFL tight end. I get the feeling that he’s an overrated product of a friendly system, but the QB cupboard is pretty bare in Carolina, so he will be given every opportunity to become the guy there if Matt Moore falters. At this stage of the draft I think he’s probably worth a shot.
23. QB Tim Tebow, Broncos - Tebow to the Broncos with the 25th pick in the first round could ultimately go down as one of the most notorious draft mistakes in recent memory. Sure, there are busts picked in the first round every year, but Tebow’s name recognition and controversial pro prospects at the game’s most visible position guarantee that this selection will face intense scrutiny over the next few years. Tebow is considered a very raw prospect who lacks sound passing fundamentals and experience running a pro style offense. Optimists will cite his productive college career, but he played on a loaded team that put him in position to succeed without forcing him to make the kind of complex reads and throws that will be demanded of him at the NFL level. Tebow looked very rough around the edges at the Senior Bowl, to the point where some people wondered out loud whether he should even be drafted at all. Just a few short months later he finds himself picked in the first round, hailed as the savior of a franchise that needs a franchise QB. Can Tebow succeed? He has already made tremendous improvements to his mechanics, although there’s no guarantee that old habits won’t persist when he finds himself in a game situation facing live bullets. Still, few doubt Tebow’s work ethic and with Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn already on the roster for next season, it’s likely that Tebow will have an entire year in which to hone his mechanics and understanding of the pro game. My hunch is that he will ultimately fail as an NFL player, but this is the kind of guy who might just shock the world and the high price the Broncos paid to acquire him ensures that he’ll be given a long leash.
24. WR Dexter McCluster, Chiefs - McCluster was a very high draft pick, but this RB/WR hybrid is a difficult projection for the pro game because he doesn’t look like a full-time starter at either position. He lacks the bulk to handle a heavy workload out of the backfield and he’s probably not tall enough to be anything more than a slot receiver in the passing game, so you’re looking at a player who really doesn’t have an obvious starting role at the next level. McCluster is lightning quick with good playing speed and the explosive first step to gain separation from defenders. He could potentially catch 40-50 passes next season, but most of those will be short throws (low yardage) and that figure probably represents his upside. All in all, it’s tough for me to get excited about him as an FF prospect because he’s just too much of a niche player to make a consistent impact in the box score.
OTHERS:
QB Colt McCoy, Browns - College overachiever with marginal physical tools. Will get a chance, but will not have a long leash and will be easily replaced next year if the Browns decide to grab a QB in the first round.
RB Joe McKnight, Jets - Elusive scat back who looks destined for a supporting role.
RB Anthony Dixon, 49ers - Should beat out Glen Coffee for the backup job and will produce RB2 numbers if Gore goes down. Long term, a replaceable talent with minimal upside.
RB Deji Karim, Jaguars - Small school prospect with compelling potential. Will battle Rashad Jennings for the backup role.
RB Charles Scott, Eagles - A straight-line pounder who could replace Mike Bell as the thunder to McCoy's lightning.
RB LeGarrette Blount, Titans - Straight-line bull who has a good chance to make this team and provide a power element.
RB Stafon Johnson, Titans - Versatile back who will battle Blount for a roster spot. Good instincts and loose hips. Could surprise down the road if he can catch on with a team.
WR Marcus Easley, Bills - Size/speed guy who had a lackluster college career, but could be a late-bloomer. Spotty hands.
WR David Gettis, Panthers - Big body with elite speed. A practice squad guy who could emerge with seasoning.
WR Carlton Mitchell, Browns - Similar to Gettis and Easley. A workout warrior who underachieves on the field.
WR Armanti Edwards, Panthers - QB convert with compelling workout numbers. Long term project to stash.
WR Joe Webb, Vikings - Another QB convert who shined at the combine. Really rough around the edges and didn't look good at all during the Senior Bowl practices.
WR Jordan Shipley, Bengals - An old rookie who overachieved in college. Strictly a slot guy in the NFL and has no upside.
WR Freddie Barnes, Bears - Slower than a tortoise, but has all of the pure WR skills you want.
WR Dezmon Briscoe, Bengals - Big target with good hands and poor mobility. Hard to see him making the roster.
WR Jacoby Ford, Raiders - A track star with mediocre football skills. Strictly a situational deep threat.
TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - On paper he's a nice candidate for TE2 after Gresham, but I don't really like what little I've seen of him and I suspect he'll be a pretty mediocre FF performer.
TE Tony Moeaki, Chiefs - Good all-around TE who should be starting for KC soon. Quality player. Upside appears limited.
TE Aaron Hernandez, Patriots - Poor man's Dallas Clark who could thrive as a receiver. I like him more at his price than Gronkowski.
TE Jimmy Graham, Saints - Developmental TE who could pay large dividends down the road.
TE Garrett Graham, Texans - Another bargain bin receiving TE with sneaky potential if he can replace Daniels.
TE Dennis Pitta, Ravens - Old rookie who will battle Ed Dickson for the right to replace Todd Heap in the near future.
TE Ed Dickson, Ravens - Could inherit Heap's job and put up fringe TE1 numbers. I see little to get excited about, but they took him high.
TE Anthony McCoy, Seahawks - Immense talent with poor character. Can start in the NFL if he decides to work hard.
- I think there's a clear top 5 this year followed by a massive dropoff. The unexpected demise of Jonathan Dwyer as an elite prospect has turned the 1.06 rookie pick into a minefield. Unless you really must have someone at that spot, it might be a good idea to move down a few rungs and get some added value.
- The key to doing well in this year's draft is probably figuring out the second round. As was the case in 2008, there's a massive cluster of guys who all offer a similar amount of value on paper. If you can figure out which of these receiver prospects are DeSean Jackson/Eddie Royal and which are Limas Sweed/James Hardy, you'll really benefit. When you look at my rankings, it's less important to look at the number than it is to read the description of the player.
- Although I won't say a whole lot about the TEs here, this is a deep class with nearly 10 guys who might offer starting NFL potential. This diminishes the value of the guys at the top, but I still think Gresham is worth special treatment because he's the only first round prospect of the lot and one of the few who has an easy path to an unquestioned starting role.
- These rankings are intended for PPR dynasty leagues with standard scoring. If your league places added emphasis on the QB and/or TE positions, you'll have to factor that in on your own.
TIER ONE
1. WR Dez Bryant, Cowboys - If you’re only concerned with immediate production and next year’s trade value, Ryan Mathews should be your guy here. If you’re looking for the best long term talent, Dez Bryant is the pick. He has a freakish combination of size and mobility. He can get downfield and make acrobatic catches like Reggie Wayne, and he’s 25 pounds heavier. He can punish people underneath and pick up yards after the catch like Anquan Boldin, and he’s significantly faster. This guy will be a matchup nightmare for pro corners and while you have to wonder how soon he’ll produce with Austin/Witten vulturing many of his targets, there’s no doubting his talent. A surefire perennial top 10 receiver if he stays healthy and works hard.
2. RB Ryan Mathews, Chargers - Mathews is the top redraft rookie, particularly in non-PPR formats. He steps into a loaded offense that should alleviate some of the defensive pressure and provide him with a high number of touchdown opportunities. Mathews is a bit of a straight-line runner, but his quickness is adequate and he offers an elite combination of straight line speed and running strength. Like Beanie Wells and Rashard Mendenhall in years past, Mathews is a very safe projection because of his rare size/speed/skill combination. When healthy, he will be a fringe top 10-15 back in FF leagues with additional upside thanks to his situation. The only major concern is durability. Mathews had trouble staying healthy in college and his physical running style and propensity for seeking contact could see him sidelined more than your average back.
3. RB Jahvid Best, Lions - Best has been a late riser up my board in the past couple weeks. While he lacks the prototypical bulk and lower body strength that you look for in a featured back, he’s 200 pounds on a 5'10 frame and he looks like he might be able to add 5-10 pounds as he matures (he’s only 21, almost two years younger than Mathews). What he lacks in size he makes up for in other categories. Jahvid has the best lateral agility of any prospect in this class. He has great long speed, an explosive first step, and extremely loose hips. This combination makes him deadly in the open field and a constant threat to break big plays. He might not ever become a true featured back, but it’s not out of the question and his elite skills in the passing game could make him a dynamic starter in PPR leagues. He has some of the best route running potential and pass catching skills of any back I’ve seen in the past several years, to the point where you’d almost think he could make it in the NFL as a slot receiver. I think he can catch 50 balls next season. Add in 150-200 explosive carries and you’ve got a guy who could be a surprise top 10-15 back as a rookie like Pac-10 predecessors Maurice Drew and Reggie Bush. The Lions made a mistake when they passed on Percy Harvin last year, but they atoned for it here by finding a running back who can offer more out of the backfield and approximate Harvin's contributions in the receiving game.
4. RB CJ Spiller, Bills - I’ve flip-flopped on Spiller throughout the process of evaluating these rookies. While I love his big play skills and explosiveness, I think he’s a much higher risk prospect for FF purposes than public perception might lead you to believe. Spiller’s best attribute is his straight line speed. He’s the fastest back in this draft class with the pads on. When he gets a seam, he can pull away effortlessly. He broke a lot of big plays in college and I have no doubt that he’s going to yield some highlight reel moments in the NFL. He’s a good pass catcher and he’ll offer added value as a receiver. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he’s an atypical RB prospect, lacking conventional bulk and inside running skills. This description also applies to Jahvid Best, but Best is a lot more fluid in tight spaces (I think this is a body type issue, as Spiller appears to have longer legs relative to his height). If you want to make an optimistic comparison you can invoke the name of Chris Johnson, another unconventional speedster who became a superstar. If you want to make a pessimistic comparison, you can cite Darren McFadden, a former top 10 pick who lacked the essential running back skills needed to complement his elite track speed. I think the reality lies somewhere in between. Spiller is a talented football player who will make his fair share of explosive plays for the Bills, but he’s probably not an every down back and his value on special teams has inflated his perceived value a little bit. Moreover, the Bills are an inept organization with no direction or identity on offense. I kind of get the sense that Spiller might struggle to maximize his potential in this situation. Conventional wisdom says Best is a slightly lesser version of Spiller, but my hunch is that it’s the other way around.
5. WR Demaryius Thomas, Broncos - Did Thomas deserve to be drafted ahead of Dez Bryant? No. Is he the second best receiver prospect in this draft and one of the only guys in this entire class who has the potential to become a number one target in the NFL? Yes. Critics will call Thomas a project and cite his lack of consistent hands and route running skills, but this was a highly productive player in college and all of the raw athletic parts are there. He has an elite frame at 6'3 220+ pounds and he moves well for his size. He doesn’t quite have the pitter-patter make-you-miss ability of Anquan Boldin or Dez Bryant, but he’s not as stiff in the open field as some would lead you to believe. Where he really excels is in the downfield passing game. He has a legitimate burst to get separation on deep routes and he demonstrates the body control needed to win jump balls over defenders. I’m a little concerned about the QB situation in Denver, but Thomas is the best talent left on the board at the five slot and I like his long term potential.
TIER TWO
6. QB Sam Bradford, Rams - This is where the draft really opens up for me. You can certainly justify rolling the dice on Benn or Tate/Hardesty here, but 4-5 players of their skill level enter the draft every season whereas Bradford represents a more rare commodity: a #1 overall pick and potential franchise QB. I’m not wild about taking a QB this high because the odds say you’re just as likely to get Alex Smith/David Carr as you are Peyton Manning/Carson Palmer and there’s no shortage of question marks about Bradford. He played on a team laden with NFL talent in a spread offense that positioned him for success. In addition to answering questions about his durability, Bradford will need to prove that he can run a pro style offense and make difficult decisions under heavy duress, something he wasn’t asked to do very often for a powerhouse Sooners team that simply steamrolled most of the teams on its schedule due to superior overall talent. Despite all of these concerns, I think Bradford is a compelling QB prospect. He has pinpoint accuracy and seemingly offers the mental intangibles to effectively manage the offense and make the difficult plays under pressure. It’s going to take him a while to get rolling and the supporting cast in St. Louis is not very dangerous, but this team is going to build around this guy and give him every opportunity to succeed. They’ll add weapons down the road. For now you’ve got a backup QB with long term starter upside. I don’t have enough faith in the remaining players to take one of them over a guy who was the top pick in the entire draft.
7. RB Ben Tate, Texans - Do you feel lucky? I hope so, because we’ve now entered the casino portion of the rookie draft, where one pull of the slot machine could make you an instant millionaire or leave your pockets empty until next year. Ben Tate is this year’s ultimate boom-or-bust pick. Blessed with a rare combination of bulk and speed, Tate helped his draft stock by leaps and bounds with a tremendous performance at the combine. He ran blazing 40 times and jumped out of the gym in drills. The Texans liked him enough to trade up and grab him in the late 2nd round. Given the uncertain state of their running game, there’s no doubt that Tate will be given every opportunity to prove that he can be the lead back for Houston. Will he succeed? That’s the tricky part. Tate has very good speed for his size and he had a productive senior season, but his elusiveness is marginal and he was a fairly mediocre player in college prior to his final year. If he was so good, why didn’t he dominate earlier in his career? Some feel that Tate is an underachiever with poor football instincts. My hunch is that he will never become an elite pro, but that he’ll be a serviceable back whose situation might temporarily elevate him to FF prominence. As was the case with Brandon Jackson and Clinton Portis, we will most likely find out whether or not he can play immediately because he will be given every opportunity to win a significant role in this offense right out of the gate.
8. RB Montario Hardesty, Browns - Like Tate, Hardesty is another prospect whose tremendous workout numbers and productive senior season dramatically improved his draft stock. That said, Hardesty is a slightly different animal than Tate. He has less upside, but he’s a safer prospect. He has all of the skills you look for in a featured RB. He can catch passes out of the backfield, he can run tough inside, he has quick feet, and he’s dynamic enough to break a long play here and there. So why isn’t he ranked higher? Because while Hardesty doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, he also doesn’t have any great strengths. He’s a C+/B- grade talent who will most likely be an adequate pro starter without being exceptional, meaning his job security will be in constant danger. I think he’s similar to Joseph Addai, but he’s stuck in a directionless Cleveland offense that offers little cause for excitement. By the time the Browns are good, Hardesty might have already lost his job to whichever superior talent eventually supplants him. The fact that Hardesty was the backup for three years behind Arian Foster at Tennessee only further cements my belief that he’s not a special talent. So while he might give you adequate numbers for a couple years ala Matt Forte or Joseph Addai, that looks like the best case scenario and he’s probably not going to be part of your team’s foundation in the long run.
9. WR Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers - I want to like Arrelious Benn. I really do. Coming out of high school, he was touted as one of the best WR prospects of his generation. He showed flashes of brilliance throughout his college career, highlighted by a terrific sophomore season that saw him catch 67 balls for 1055. Many pundits projected him as a potential top 15 pick entering his junior year, but a disastrous 2009 season ended that talk. Now Benn finds himself headed to Tampa Bay after the Bucs used an early 2nd round pick on him, presumably with the intention of making him Josh Freeman’s go-to guy. Benn has a big, sturdy frame with adequate speed and lateral agility. Some onlookers have compared him to Anquan Boldin because he excels at catching short passes underneath and making plays with the ball in his hands. I think he has some similarities to Boldin and Hines Ward, but I also think he’s an underachiever whose movement lacks precision and suddenness. Benn is not going to beat many NFL defenders downfield and he’s generally not a threat to make the acrobatic catch on a jump ball. I have to rank him as the third best WR in this class because he was the third true WR drafted and many people think he’s an underrated talent who could be a better pro than collegian. Still, my hunch is that Benn is a bit of a chronic underachiever who doesn’t play up to his seemingly huge ability. In that sense I see some shades of Roy Williams, although the two players have very different styles. Ultimately, I might say Benn is a poor man’s Boldin: a guy who will play many years as a starter in the league and catch his fair share of balls in the short passing game, but probably never become the dominant number one the Bucs are looking for.
10. TE Jermaine Gresham, Bengals - At this stage of the draft Gresham is the last first round talent on the board unless you count Tim Tebow. I’m not usually a big fan of taking TEs with first round picks (or even second round picks) in rookie drafts because they typically don’t carry much trade value even if they pan out, but the recent track record for TE prospects chosen in the first round of the NFL draft is fairly strong. Very few of these guys become complete busts and most of them at least achieve fringe TE1 status in FF leagues for a year or two. That’s not exactly an exciting proposition, but if you have a need at the position or you play in a league that favors TE scoring then I like Gresham in the 6-10 range. He’s a big target with good lower body strength to bounce off tackles and lumber for yards after the catch. Although he lacks the elite quickness and burst of Tony Gonzalez or Kellen Winslow, he’s very fluid for such a tall target and he’ll present a difficult matchup for linebackers and safeties who surrender several inches in height and arm length to him. If he can learn how to block in training camp, he’ll most likely crack the lineup immediately and emerge as a startable TE in FF leagues in 2011. Could he be another mild disappointment like Marcedes Lewis? Will you regret picking him this high when one of those 3rd round WRs becomes a breakout star? Sure, but we don’t know exactly which of those second tier prospects will succeed yet. Gresham is a much safer bet to become a contributor.
TIER THREE
11. RB Toby Gerhart, Vikings - Gerhart is a punishing power back with excellent running strength and enough mobility to smoothly change direction behind his blockers. On the surface Minnesota is a strange fit for him, but it actually makes a lot of sense. He’ll soften up defenses for Adrian Peterson and provide a legitimate replacement in the event of injury. I expect him to make a positive NFL impact, but FF players will have to be very patient with him because there’s absolutely zero chance of him beating out Adrian Peterson for the starting job. He’ll most likely get 5-10 carries per game when Peterson is healthy and he won’t ever become an NFL starter unless he gets traded or signs with a new team when his rookie deal is up. He’s already 23 years old, so by the time he finds his own starting job he’ll probably be 26-28 (if it ever even happens). This makes Gerhart a tough prospect to get excited about for FF purposes. He’s a good player and he’ll look nice on your bench, but he’s not going to make a big impact to your starting lineup barring a major injury or a surprise situational development. Still, getting a high quality second round NFL RB at this range of your rookie draft is decent value, so I don’t mind picking Gerhart here and hoping that his opportunity expands. If I didn’t need a developmental RB, I might roll the dice on one of the WRs instead.
12. RB Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers - Were we all wrong about Jonathan Dwyer? Entering the season many pundits had him projected as a first round pick in this draft thanks to his combination of power, speed, and production. Everything was going fine until the combine, when Dwyer showed up looking soft and doughy before logging pathetic marks in every drill. His stock plummeted and we started hearing rumblings that he had been getting third round grades from NFL evaluators even before he bombed in Indianapolis. Dwyer fell like a rock in the draft until the Steelers ended his misery in the 6th round with the 188th pick overall. Maybe Dwyer just isn’t very good, maybe some off-field issues caused him to drop in the draft, maybe there weren’t enough teams with RB needs, or maybe it was some combination of all of those factors. There’s no doubt that Dwyer isn’t the elite franchise RB he was touted as just a few short months ago, but at this stage of the draft I like his upside enough to roll the dice knowing that he could very easily be worthless a year from now. On the field Dwyer is a big back who shows a second gear to run away from defenses. He doesn’t have a great initial burst, but his quickness is adequate and he shows the fluid hips needed to change directions smoothly. His best asset is his power. Dwyer is a tank who can bounce off tackles and get second chance yards. In a best case scenario he might replicate the career of Michael Turner, another college star who tumbled in the draft and landed in a bad situation behind a young starter before eventually emerging as an NFL starter in his own right. Dwyer is not the safest pick on the board at this stage of the draft, but he’s the best “swing for the fences” option here.
13. WR Golden Tate, Seahawks - Tate is a solid prospect in a good situation on a team whose best veteran receivers are past their prime. He will have the opportunity to become one of the top three receivers on the depth chart immediately. I have previously doubted his playing speed and wondered whether his lack of height might hinder his success at the pro level. It’s true that I see a bit of Josh Reed in him, but Tate’s quality performance at the scouting combine proved that he’s a cut above Reed athletically. Tate has good stopwatch speed to go along with good toughness, run after the catch skills, and production. In a best case scenario I could see him developing into another Laveranues Coles, but he’s not a slam dunk prospect by any means. The fact that he fell deep into the second round despite his production and workout numbers says something about the league’s perception of his talent. Still, Tate was the fourth receiver drafted and he offers the potential to develop into a good NFL starter. He represents a fair gamble at this stage of the draft.
14. WR Andre Roberts, Cardinals - A gifted punt returner and slot receiver, Roberts is a virtual clone of Eddie Royal, which may or may not be a good thing depending on your perspective. Like Royal, Roberts is a silky smooth route runner with excellent change of direction and body control. Also like Royal, Roberts is a small target whose lack of elite size could have him pigeon-holed as a slot receiver and return specialist in the NFL. Therein lies the rub. Roberts is going to be a solid player in the NFL, but he might not necessarily be a solid player in FF. Royal has been condemned to a supporting role despite his talent and a similar fate might be in store for Roberts. The Cardinals have an elite number one receiver and two other guys who are potentially good enough to keep Roberts on the bench. So while I think he’s a solid player, it’s difficult to get a grasp on his FF value. Other guys on this list have a similar pedigree and a clearer path to immediate relevance, but I like Roberts enough to take him here even if it means being frustrated as his talent languishes on the bench or in a supporting role.
15. WR Eric Decker, Broncos - Remember when Plaxico Burress was Pittsburgh’s big play guy while Hines Ward was their possession receiver? Both players thrived, each topping the 1000 yard mark in 2001 and 2002. I could see something similar eventually happening in Denver, where Decker is the short yardage guy to complement the downfield threat of Demaryius Thomas. Decker is not an explosive player, but he’s a fluid athlete with good size/strength and production. A true playmaker with strong hands, Decker is renowned for his consistent ability to catch the football. In the early rookie drafts I’m seeing, Decker is falling out of the top 20-25 picks in a lot of leagues. I think he represents a great bargain there and I like him more than many of the receivers who are being picked ahead of him. He’s more polished than Demaryius Thomas and he could crack Denver’s starting lineup within two years. On the downside, Decker is never going to be a dominant number one receiver and he could end up relegated to mediocrity like Kevin Walter. Walter is a solid NFL player, but not a desirable candidate for your starting lineup in FF leagues. That description could eventually describe Decker, but there’s enough potential for a Jerricho Cotchery or Hines Ward career trajectory to justify a 2nd round rookie pick.
16. WR Mike Williams, Buccaneers - This is the highest I have ever ranked Williams, the immensely productive former Syracuse star who quit the team in the middle of the season. There are obvious red flags surrounding this prospect, but when I look at this year’s class and ask myself which of these guys could conceivably become a #1 target in the NFL, Williams is one of the few players who seems to offer that potential. At 6'2" 221, Williams has a big frame coupled with great overall athletic ability and good initial quickness. He’s not a burner, but he has the strength and burst to be an effective possession receiver at the next level. On the downside, he lacks technique, runs his routes too upright, and gets by solely on raw athletic ability. Last year there were three NFL teams who drafted two receivers in the first four rounds. The Dolphins took Patrick Turner in the 3rd round and Brian Hartline in the 4th round. The Browns took Brian Robiskie in the 2nd round and Mohamed Massaquoi later in the same frame. The Chicago Bears took Juaquin Iglesias in the 3rd round and Johnny Knox in the 4th round. In every case, the WR drafted later greatly outshined his counterpart. I had a hunch that this would happen with Iglesias/Knox and Robiskie/Massaquoi. I think it could happen again this year with Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. Williams has comparable physical talent and unlike Benn, he consistently produced in college despite a mediocre supporting cast. He’s far from a sure thing and he will have to hold up his end of the bargain from a character standpoint, but if you’re looking for upside out of a second round rookie pick then Williams is someone to consider. The fact that he was a 4th round NFL draft pick despite a litany of character issues speaks volumes about his ability.
17. WR Brandon LaFell, Panthers - Like Mohamed Massaquoi last year, LaFell is a mystifying player whose production and consistency don’t match his obvious NFL caliber talent. LaFell is a tall receiver who has a legitimate upfield burst despite mediocre stopwatch speed. He will provide the Panthers with a downfield threat who can also turn short passes into long gains with his ability to turn and run after the catch. I think he has a higher ceiling than all of the receivers who were picked in the third round of the NFL draft this year, but he’s not nearly as consistent catching the ball as guys like Decker/Roberts/DWilliams. As a result, you have to wonder if he’s going to be a frustrating NFL player who offers occasional islands of brilliance in oceans of mediocrity. In a best case scenario you might end up with a Roddy White kind of player. In a worst case scenario he will be more like White’s teammate Michael Jenkins, another high draft pick who never dominated despite his compelling height/speed combo. LaFell is a good option in the 10-15 range because of his upside, but he’s definitely a bit of a boom-or-bust player.
18. WR Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers - I had previously compared Sanders to Mike Wallace, which is funny now that he has been drafted in the late third round (the same place Wallace went last year), to the Pittsburgh Steelers (the same team that drafted Wallace), to become their #3 receiver (the same role Wallace filled last year). Like Wallace, Sanders is a speedy downfield target with a slender frame. He catches the ball very cleanly and was a highly productive college player. Wallace should step into the lineup and immediately produce. Like Wallace, the main question about Sanders is whether or not he can become more than a complementary guy and thrive on the outside against starting NFL corners. I see him as more of a WR2/WR3 than a potential franchise receiver, but in Pittsburgh’s explosive passing attack that could be good enough for him to become a starting candidate in most FF leagues.
19. WR Mardy Gilyard, Rams - Gilyard is a productive receiver whose slight frame and lack of footspeed caused him to fall in the draft. A playmaker on gameday, Gilyard has good body control and excellent initial quickness to get separation and make difficult catches. At his best he resembles Jets WR Santonio Holmes, but Gilyard doesn’t have the same legitimate downfield speed and he’s not built as solid. He might have trouble against press coverage at the next level and the average speed that served him will in the college game might become a liability in the NFL. Gilyard also has the bad habit of letting passes get into his body, which could lead to some drops at the next level (though I never saw him drop a ball in a real game in college). Overall, Gilyard is a quality player whose underwhelming workout numbers kept him out of the draft’s top 100 picks. He could develop into a nice #2 receiver for the Rams and if Bradford pans out, they could form a pretty dynamic duo.
20. WR Damian Williams, Titans - Williams is a size/speed tweener who has a nice initial burst despite lacking great sustained speed. He was a productive college player who has a big enough frame to become a starting outside receiver in the NFL. Pundits cite his route running as a strength. I think his long legs give him some trouble when he has to change directions in a hurry laterally, but he’s a solid overall prospect who’s good in many areas without offering any single exceptional skill. I view him as a poor man’s Jeremy Maclin, although he might offer a little bit more than Maclin in the possession receiver department. Given Tennessee’s lack of talent at the WR position, Williams should crack their starting lineup sooner rather than later and provide a nice complement to Kenny Britt. I just don't see much upside and he's not a player that I've ever really liked despite the fact that he has always been highly-regarded.
21. WR Taylor Price, Patriots - Price is a fluid receiver whose strong postseason showing at the combine and Senior Bowl greatly improved his draft stock. Built well at 6' 204 pounds with low 4.4 speed, Price is something of an enigma because he never dominated his poor college competition despite his talent. Price runs well and demonstrates the smooth body control and change of direction needed to become an effective route runner in the NFL. From an athletic standpoint all of the parts are there, but I can’t shake the hunch that Price is nothing more than a complementary target at the NFL level in the mold of Justin McCareins or Johnny Knox. Still, a quality prospect with the potential to develop into a starter in the NFL.
22. QB Jimmy Clausen, Panthers - Clausen’s draft tumble suggests that he’s viewed as more of a Kevin Kolb/Chad Henne/Drew Stanton level prospect than the surefire first round QB the media touted him as. This doesn’t mean that he can’t eventually become a franchise passer in the NFL, but it means you should probably disavow yourself of the notion that he’s an elite talent. Many people have questioned Clausen’s maturity, leadership, and mental intangibles. From a football standpoint, pundits like his accuracy, but question his arm strength and physical ability. Clausen is a bit on the small side for the position and his deep passes have been known to flutter. He didn’t win many big games in college and, like former Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn, benefitted from a tremendous supporting cast that included two NFL caliber receivers and a future NFL tight end. I get the feeling that he’s an overrated product of a friendly system, but the QB cupboard is pretty bare in Carolina, so he will be given every opportunity to become the guy there if Matt Moore falters. At this stage of the draft I think he’s probably worth a shot.
23. QB Tim Tebow, Broncos - Tebow to the Broncos with the 25th pick in the first round could ultimately go down as one of the most notorious draft mistakes in recent memory. Sure, there are busts picked in the first round every year, but Tebow’s name recognition and controversial pro prospects at the game’s most visible position guarantee that this selection will face intense scrutiny over the next few years. Tebow is considered a very raw prospect who lacks sound passing fundamentals and experience running a pro style offense. Optimists will cite his productive college career, but he played on a loaded team that put him in position to succeed without forcing him to make the kind of complex reads and throws that will be demanded of him at the NFL level. Tebow looked very rough around the edges at the Senior Bowl, to the point where some people wondered out loud whether he should even be drafted at all. Just a few short months later he finds himself picked in the first round, hailed as the savior of a franchise that needs a franchise QB. Can Tebow succeed? He has already made tremendous improvements to his mechanics, although there’s no guarantee that old habits won’t persist when he finds himself in a game situation facing live bullets. Still, few doubt Tebow’s work ethic and with Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn already on the roster for next season, it’s likely that Tebow will have an entire year in which to hone his mechanics and understanding of the pro game. My hunch is that he will ultimately fail as an NFL player, but this is the kind of guy who might just shock the world and the high price the Broncos paid to acquire him ensures that he’ll be given a long leash.
24. WR Dexter McCluster, Chiefs - McCluster was a very high draft pick, but this RB/WR hybrid is a difficult projection for the pro game because he doesn’t look like a full-time starter at either position. He lacks the bulk to handle a heavy workload out of the backfield and he’s probably not tall enough to be anything more than a slot receiver in the passing game, so you’re looking at a player who really doesn’t have an obvious starting role at the next level. McCluster is lightning quick with good playing speed and the explosive first step to gain separation from defenders. He could potentially catch 40-50 passes next season, but most of those will be short throws (low yardage) and that figure probably represents his upside. All in all, it’s tough for me to get excited about him as an FF prospect because he’s just too much of a niche player to make a consistent impact in the box score.
OTHERS:
QB Colt McCoy, Browns - College overachiever with marginal physical tools. Will get a chance, but will not have a long leash and will be easily replaced next year if the Browns decide to grab a QB in the first round.
RB Joe McKnight, Jets - Elusive scat back who looks destined for a supporting role.
RB Anthony Dixon, 49ers - Should beat out Glen Coffee for the backup job and will produce RB2 numbers if Gore goes down. Long term, a replaceable talent with minimal upside.
RB Deji Karim, Jaguars - Small school prospect with compelling potential. Will battle Rashad Jennings for the backup role.
RB Charles Scott, Eagles - A straight-line pounder who could replace Mike Bell as the thunder to McCoy's lightning.
RB LeGarrette Blount, Titans - Straight-line bull who has a good chance to make this team and provide a power element.
RB Stafon Johnson, Titans - Versatile back who will battle Blount for a roster spot. Good instincts and loose hips. Could surprise down the road if he can catch on with a team.
WR Marcus Easley, Bills - Size/speed guy who had a lackluster college career, but could be a late-bloomer. Spotty hands.
WR David Gettis, Panthers - Big body with elite speed. A practice squad guy who could emerge with seasoning.
WR Carlton Mitchell, Browns - Similar to Gettis and Easley. A workout warrior who underachieves on the field.
WR Armanti Edwards, Panthers - QB convert with compelling workout numbers. Long term project to stash.
WR Joe Webb, Vikings - Another QB convert who shined at the combine. Really rough around the edges and didn't look good at all during the Senior Bowl practices.
WR Jordan Shipley, Bengals - An old rookie who overachieved in college. Strictly a slot guy in the NFL and has no upside.
WR Freddie Barnes, Bears - Slower than a tortoise, but has all of the pure WR skills you want.
WR Dezmon Briscoe, Bengals - Big target with good hands and poor mobility. Hard to see him making the roster.
WR Jacoby Ford, Raiders - A track star with mediocre football skills. Strictly a situational deep threat.
TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - On paper he's a nice candidate for TE2 after Gresham, but I don't really like what little I've seen of him and I suspect he'll be a pretty mediocre FF performer.
TE Tony Moeaki, Chiefs - Good all-around TE who should be starting for KC soon. Quality player. Upside appears limited.
TE Aaron Hernandez, Patriots - Poor man's Dallas Clark who could thrive as a receiver. I like him more at his price than Gronkowski.
TE Jimmy Graham, Saints - Developmental TE who could pay large dividends down the road.
TE Garrett Graham, Texans - Another bargain bin receiving TE with sneaky potential if he can replace Daniels.
TE Dennis Pitta, Ravens - Old rookie who will battle Ed Dickson for the right to replace Todd Heap in the near future.
TE Ed Dickson, Ravens - Could inherit Heap's job and put up fringe TE1 numbers. I see little to get excited about, but they took him high.
TE Anthony McCoy, Seahawks - Immense talent with poor character. Can start in the NFL if he decides to work hard.
Regarding the point above, I wouldn't let his being a backup to Foster cloud your opinion. For starters, that happened under the Phil Fulmer system and Foster was a very good college runner - no shame in sitting behind a talented player. More importantly, Hardesty's biggest problem has been his health. He tore an ACL, had a fracture, and battled sprained ankles in three different seasons. He is every bit as talented a runner as anyone in the draft WHEN HE IS HEALTHY. I think he will be given a chance to split carries with Harrison, which should help him stay healthy.
