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[DYNASTY] 2010 Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)

That's a very lengthy avoid list. With so many guys on that list who have been drafted at least fairly high by their NFL teams, I think it's a good bet to say that you will have missed out on a good number of quality players, fantasy or otherwise. But to each his own, I just think that you have a very narrow pool of prospects that leaves little room for error on your targets.
I don't have the stats handy, but I recall the success rates for prospects picked in certain rounds of the NFL draft being something like:First Round - 50%Second Round - 35%Third Round - 30%Fourth Round - 10%Most of the guys picked in the top 100 in April aren't going to become solid NFL players. So while you're probably right in suggesting that I'll miss out on some of the successful players from this crew, I don't think it's incorrect to be skeptical of prospects in general. We tend to overrate them by looking at their talent in the context of the other players in their NCAA draft class rather than in the context of the NFL. Take a guy like Taylor Price. If he's barely one of the 10 best WRs in this draft then can we really expect anything more than a mediocre NFL career? He's competing with players not only from his NCAA class, but also from the past 10+ drafts. So if he's going to become a standout pro, he has to be good not only compared to the average player in his class, but also to the average NFL player.When you start thinking about things that way, it's easy to see why most of these prospects will underwhelm and why even some of the elite players in this class could struggle to become any more successful than the likes of Braylon Edwards, Julius Jones, Roy Williams, and Lee Evans.By and large, the players who achieve significant, sustained success in the NFL are transcendent talents like Chad Johnson, Santana Moss, Andre Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald. By definition, these guys are rare. Maybe 4-5 per draft class. So you figure maybe 50-65% of the elite first round talents in this draft will join that group (Bradford, Spiller, Mathews, Gresham, Thomas, Bryant, Tebow, Best). Then maybe 2-3 guys will emerge from the middle rounds ala Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson, MJD, Jermichael Finley, and Brandon Marshall. When the dust settles we will look back on this draft and probably see a small group of 5-6 players who were really worth rostering. Most of the other guys will be negligible.
 
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I don't have the stats handy, but I recall the success rates for prospects picked in certain rounds of the NFL draft being something like:First Round - 50%Second Round - 35%Third Round - 30%Fourth Round - 10%
These numbers got me thinking. But instead of trying to determine how many first-round NFL picks are busts, for example, I looked at the numbers a different way.I went through the rosters in my league and took a look at all the "startable" players. I realize that's subjective, but I think most would agree with the bulk of the list I came up with. It's all the usual suspects, plus some other guys that would spot-start or provide good depth depending on the size of your league.I ended up with 125 players that would be seen as "reliable," "startable" players right now in most dynasty leagues. So this is obviously just a snapshot in time and it could look different last year or next year. But anyway, I thought the numbers were interesting.Out of the "top" 125 players in fantasy football today, 47 percent of them were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. And 80 percent were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.Here's how they broke down:1st round: 59 (47%)2nd round: 23 (18%3rd round: 18 (14%)4th round: 6 (5%)5th round: 4 (3%)6th round: 2 (2%)7th round: 6 (5%)Undrafted: 7 (6%)So it seems like NFL scouts and GMs have a pretty good track record here. So for those of us obsessing over the likes of James Starks, etc., trying to find the next Pierre Thomas or Marques Colston, good luck. The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against you.
 
I don't have the stats handy, but I recall the success rates for prospects picked in certain rounds of the NFL draft being something like:First Round - 50%Second Round - 35%Third Round - 30%Fourth Round - 10%
These numbers got me thinking. But instead of trying to determine how many first-round NFL picks are busts, for example, I looked at the numbers a different way.I went through the rosters in my league and took a look at all the "startable" players. I realize that's subjective, but I think most would agree with the bulk of the list I came up with. It's all the usual suspects, plus some other guys that would spot-start or provide good depth depending on the size of your league.I ended up with 125 players that would be seen as "reliable," "startable" players right now in most dynasty leagues. So this is obviously just a snapshot in time and it could look different last year or next year. But anyway, I thought the numbers were interesting.Out of the "top" 125 players in fantasy football today, 47 percent of them were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. And 80 percent were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.Here's how they broke down:1st round: 59 (47%)2nd round: 23 (18%3rd round: 18 (14%)4th round: 6 (5%)5th round: 4 (3%)6th round: 2 (2%)7th round: 6 (5%)Undrafted: 7 (6%)So it seems like NFL scouts and GMs have a pretty good track record here. So for those of us obsessing over the likes of James Starks, etc., trying to find the next Pierre Thomas or Marques Colston, good luck. The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against you.
:yes: Play the odds; only occasionally swinging for the fence. And only in the later rounds.
 
So it seems like NFL scouts and GMs have a pretty good track record here. So for those of us obsessing over the likes of James Starks, etc., trying to find the next Pierre Thomas or Marques Colston, good luck. The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against you.
Great post. And many of those gems like Pierre, Colston, Romo, Brady, etc were not taken in rookie drafts - they were plucked from the waiver wire after some genuine training camp buzz.
 
I don't have the stats handy, but I recall the success rates for prospects picked in certain rounds of the NFL draft being something like:First Round - 50%Second Round - 35%Third Round - 30%Fourth Round - 10%
These numbers got me thinking. But instead of trying to determine how many first-round NFL picks are busts, for example, I looked at the numbers a different way.I went through the rosters in my league and took a look at all the "startable" players. I realize that's subjective, but I think most would agree with the bulk of the list I came up with. It's all the usual suspects, plus some other guys that would spot-start or provide good depth depending on the size of your league.I ended up with 125 players that would be seen as "reliable," "startable" players right now in most dynasty leagues. So this is obviously just a snapshot in time and it could look different last year or next year. But anyway, I thought the numbers were interesting.Out of the "top" 125 players in fantasy football today, 47 percent of them were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. And 80 percent were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.Here's how they broke down:1st round: 59 (47%)2nd round: 23 (18%3rd round: 18 (14%)4th round: 6 (5%)5th round: 4 (3%)6th round: 2 (2%)7th round: 6 (5%)Undrafted: 7 (6%)So it seems like NFL scouts and GMs have a pretty good track record here. So for those of us obsessing over the likes of James Starks, etc., trying to find the next Pierre Thomas or Marques Colston, good luck. The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against you.
I agree with you and pretty much tell anyone who does not watch a ton of college football that they should never stray too far from the top 100 in the draft. That said, on the late round guys, the pay off can be huge if you do find the exception before everyone else figures it out. I think where too many prople go wrong is betting too early on a James Starks (top of the 2nd round really?), when there better percentage plays at all the other skill positions.
 
That said, on the late round guys, the pay off can be huge if you do find the exception before everyone else figures it out. I think where too many prople go wrong is betting too early on a James Starks (top of the 2nd round really?), when there better percentage plays at all the other skill positions.
:goodposting: James Davis went #7 and #10 in both of my rookie drafts last year, I got Percy Harvin after him in both. I realize RB is the most scarce position but it doesn't justify silly reaches like that when talents like Percy were available.
 
I don't have the stats handy, but I recall the success rates for prospects picked in certain rounds of the NFL draft being something like:First Round - 50%Second Round - 35%Third Round - 30%Fourth Round - 10%
These numbers got me thinking. But instead of trying to determine how many first-round NFL picks are busts, for example, I looked at the numbers a different way.I went through the rosters in my league and took a look at all the "startable" players. I realize that's subjective, but I think most would agree with the bulk of the list I came up with. It's all the usual suspects, plus some other guys that would spot-start or provide good depth depending on the size of your league.I ended up with 125 players that would be seen as "reliable," "startable" players right now in most dynasty leagues. So this is obviously just a snapshot in time and it could look different last year or next year. But anyway, I thought the numbers were interesting.Out of the "top" 125 players in fantasy football today, 47 percent of them were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. And 80 percent were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.Here's how they broke down:1st round: 59 (47%)2nd round: 23 (18%3rd round: 18 (14%)4th round: 6 (5%)5th round: 4 (3%)6th round: 2 (2%)7th round: 6 (5%)Undrafted: 7 (6%)So it seems like NFL scouts and GMs have a pretty good track record here. So for those of us obsessing over the likes of James Starks, etc., trying to find the next Pierre Thomas or Marques Colston, good luck. The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against you.
I agree with you and pretty much tell anyone who does not watch a ton of college football that they should never stray too far from the top 100 in the draft. That said, on the late round guys, the pay off can be huge if you do find the exception before everyone else figures it out. I think where too many prople go wrong is betting too early on a James Starks (top of the 2nd round really?), when there better percentage plays at all the other skill positions.
You could say the same with Dwyer. Both those RB's are going way too early in leagues and you can get Dixon/Karim much later.
 
That said, on the late round guys, the pay off can be huge if you do find the exception before everyone else figures it out. I think where too many prople go wrong is betting too early on a James Starks (top of the 2nd round really?), when there better percentage plays at all the other skill positions.
:tumbleweed: James Davis went #7 and #10 in both of my rookie drafts last year, I got Percy Harvin after him in both. I realize RB is the most scarce position but it doesn't justify silly reaches like that when talents like Percy were available.
I got Percy Harvin at No. 9 last year right after the MJD owner took Rashad Jennings at 8! :excited:
 
bump ... time for a Post-OTA version isn't it? :confused:

and just had to comment on this...

Very good read. Thanks.

My 2 cents:

1)I don't know how anyone in a dynasty PPR could really draft Toby Gerhart before the early to mid 2nd round, because of the reasons outlined. It would basically take a career-ending injury to ADP to give him any consistent ff relevance that lasted from one season to another.

2)I think Hardesty is immensly overrated. I agree he will go right about where he is being predicted but think its a mistake. I like James Davis as much more of a factor and it seems like people are writing him off for some reason. If nothing else, using the same rational of Foster keeping Hardesty on the bench for a few years, wasn't it Davis who kept Spiller on the bench?
Pierre Thomas (late pick like Foster) keeping Mendenhall (early pick like Hardesty) on the bench didn't stop Mendy from being a Dynasty startup late first/early second round ADP in this his 3rd year so precedent is there for this to be completely irrelevant in judging Hardesty

 
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No major changes.

Would bump up Mike Williams a few spots.

Would bump up Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez into the 10-20 range.

Might prefer Hardesty over Tate. Tate is a huge boom/bust guy. A year from now we'll probably know the answer.

 
EBF said:
No major changes.Would bump up Mike Williams a few spots.Would bump up Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez into the 10-20 range. Might prefer Hardesty over Tate. Tate is a huge boom/bust guy. A year from now we'll probably know the answer.
EBF, what are your thoughts on Jimmy Clausen? Is he a legit talent, or another also ran hyped QB prospect?
 
EBF said:
No major changes.Would bump up Mike Williams a few spots.Would bump up Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez into the 10-20 range. Might prefer Hardesty over Tate. Tate is a huge boom/bust guy. A year from now we'll probably know the answer.
EBF, what are your thoughts on Jimmy Clausen? Is he a legit talent, or another also ran hyped QB prospect?
I don't spend a ton of time watching QBs, but I've seen him play a few times. My feeling is that he's an overrated prospect whose profile was inflated because of his college program's notoriety and his reputation out of high school. I think he's probably more like a Rex Grossman/Patrick Ramsey than a Drew Brees.
 
Updated top 10 after camp and most of the preseason would look something like:

1. WR Dez Bryant, DAL - Despite what the other top options have shown, I still think he's the best player in this WR/RB group. Having said that, you might be able to trade any of the top 3 RBs for him at this time next year.

2. RB Ryan Mathews, SD - Looks about like you would expect. Lacks the "wow" qualities of Spiller and Best, but figures to be a reliable RB1 whose talent/situation combination resembles that of Rashard Mendenhall.

3. RB Jahvid Best, DET - Has earned steady praise and figures to be an immediate impact player in PPR formats.

4. RB CJ Spiller, BUF - Looks good in early action and while I'm not ready to move him up, he's doing well and making me feel better about this 1.04 spot.

5. WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN - Was earning nice buzz before his injuries. Just needs to get healthy and we shoud start to see him shine. He looks like the future WR1 for this team. It's only a matter of time.

6. WR Mike Williams, TB - For my money Williams has been the unquestioned breakout star of training camp among this rookie class. We always knew he had upside and it looks like he's going to fulfill it. At this point I'm about 90% sure that this kid is the real deal. You can probably even justify taking him over Thomas because his short term outlook is quite a bit better.

7. QB Sam Bradford, STL - So far so good. The buzz has been positive and he played lights out in his biggest test yet.

8. RB Montario Hardesty, CLE - Holding steady here. I think he's a dark horse candidate to help FF teams win immediately.

9. TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN - Looks about as advertised. Should be a good starting TE.

10. WR Dexter McCluster, KC - I'm still a little bit skeptical about his ability to find a true starting position at the NFL level, but it seems like they're going to feed him the ball and that could make him instantly helpful in PPR.

TE Aaron Hernandez, NE - Just missed the top 10. He's athletic with good hands. I have two questions: can he ever get on the field enough to catch 60+ balls and, in that vein, will Gronkowski vulture his looks?

TE Jimmy Graham, NO - I'm really intrigued by his potential. I can't quite rank him in the top 10 because he's just a project TE, but I think he's one of the best options of the second tier rookies.

WR Golden Tate, SEA - I think you can justify ranking him anywhere between 10-14. Since I've never been a huge fan of his game, I'm opting for the low side of that range. He could be a nice buy low candidate in next year's dynasty startups if he has a quiet rookie year.

WR Arrelious Benn, TB - Early reports say he's shown flashes of talent, but struggled with consistency. That sounds a lot like his college career. Is he the Bryant Johnson to Mike Williams' Anquan Boldin? Possibly. I think it's now very likely that Williams will be the better overall player and the better long term gamble, but Benn can still emerge over the next couple years as a reliable partner in crime.

RB Jonathan Dwyer, PIT - Showed some signs of life this week. The best boom-or-bust RB available outside the top tier.

RB Toby Gerhart, MIN - Has looked pretty pedestrian in limited duty, but figures to be the handcuff if/when Peterson gets hurt.

WR Brandon LaFell, CAR - Quietly making a case for the starting job opposite Steve Smith. I think it's only a matter of time until he wins it. I think he'll be a decent player. I just don't know if he has WR1 potential.

WR Emmanuel Sanders, PIT - Sanders has been the recipient of some serious hyperbole. Pitt's GM says he's the best rookie WR that he's seen, which is saying something considering that Mike Wallace and Santonio Holmes came through their system. Sanders catches the ball very cleanly. If he can consistently get separation from pro corners then he might have a future as a starter on this team.

WR Victor Cruz, NYG - Resembles late-period Laveranues Coles. So-so speed and height, but good toughness and sticky hands. Looks like he could become a solid second WR in the NFL. Opportunity is an issue for the foreseeable future.

TE Fendi Onobun, STL - My favorite project in this draft class continues to build momentum. Ignore him at your own risk.

WR Andre Roberts, ARI - My favorite WR sleeper entering the offseason has had a rough camp. He never had issues catching the ball in college, so I have to think that his current struggles in that department are a matter of nerves. I expect him to improve as he gets comfortable and I still think there's compelling potential here despite the rocky start.

TE Tony Moeaki, KC - "MASH unit" Moeaki continues to struggle with injuries, but when healthy he's easily the best TE on KC's roster. He's ranked below some of the other TEs in this class because I don't think he has as much upside.

TE Rob Gronkowski, NE - I've been down on him throughout the offseason, but he's showing why many scouts thought he would've been a first round pick in 2011 if he had returned to Arizona.

WR Eric Decker, DEN - Looks pretty solid. Upside remains an issue for me because he's basically Kevin Walter and if Kevin Walter is starting for your FF team, you're probably not winning anything.

TE Ed Dickson, BAL - Yet another TE generating some buzz. I think this has potential to be a great class.

WR Stephen Williams, ARI - Training camp darling continues to make plays. Very thin frame, but has height and range.

RB Ben Tate, HOU - This year's ultimate boom-or-bust gamble is looking more like a flop after his unfortunate injury. Now his owners will just have to hope that Foster/Johnson/Slaton falter so Tate gets another shot next year.

The big gainer is obviously Mike Williams. Spiller, McCluster, Hernandez, and Graham have also improved their standing. What really stands out to me about this group is the quality of the depth. Quite a few of the guys listed outside my top 10 have a legitimate chance to make an impact somewhere down the line. I feel pretty good about my top 8-9 picks. Beyond that it's pretty hard to distinguish between guys.

 
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Updated top 10 after camp and most of the preseason would look something like:1. WR Dez Bryant, DAL - Despite what the other top options have shown, I still think he's the best player in this WR/RB group. Having said that, you might be able to trade any of the top 3 RBs for him at this time next year. 2. RB Ryan Mathews, SD - Looks about like you would expect. Lacks the "wow" qualities of Spiller and Best, but figures to be a reliable RB1 whose talent/situation combination resembles that of Rashard Mendenhall. 3. RB Jahvid Best, DET - Has earned steady praise and figures to be an immediate impact player in PPR formats. 4. RB CJ Spiller, BUF - Looks good in early action and while I'm not ready to move him up, he's doing well and making me feel better about this 1.04 spot. 5. WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN - Was earning nice buzz before his injuries. Just needs to get healthy and we shoud start to see him shine. He looks like the future WR1 for this team. It's only a matter of time. 6. WR Mike Williams, TB - For my money Williams has been the unquestioned breakout star of training camp among this rookie class. We always knew he had upside and it looks like he's going to fulfill it. At this point I'm about 90% sure that this kid is the real deal. You can probably even justify taking him over Thomas because his short term outlook is quite a bit better. 7. QB Sam Bradford, STL - So far so good. The buzz has been positive and he played lights out in his biggest test yet. 8. RB Montario Hardesty, CLE - Holding steady here. I think he's a dark horse candidate to help FF teams win immediately. 9. TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN - Looks about as advertised. Should be a good starting TE. 10. WR Dexter McCluster, KC - I'm still a little bit skeptical about his ability to find a true starting position at the NFL level, but it seems like they're going to feed him the ball and that could make him instantly helpful in PPR. TE Aaron Hernandez, NE - Just missed the top 10. He's athletic with good hands. I have two questions: can he ever get on the field enough to catch 60+ balls and, in that vein, will Gronkowski vulture his looks?TE Jimmy Graham, NO - I'm really intrigued by his potential. I can't quite rank him in the top 10 because he's just a project TE, but I think he's one of the best options of the second tier rookies. WR Golden Tate, SEA - I think you can justify ranking him anywhere between 10-14. Since I've never been a huge fan of his game, I'm opting for the low side of that range. He could be a nice buy low candidate in next year's dynasty startups if he has a quiet rookie year. WR Arrelious Benn, TB - Early reports say he's shown flashes of talent, but struggled with consistency. That sounds a lot like his college career. Is he the Bryant Johnson to Mike Williams' Anquan Boldin? Possibly. I think it's now very likely that Williams will be the better overall player and the better long term gamble, but Benn can still emerge over the next couple years as a reliable partner in crime. RB Jonathan Dwyer, PIT - Showed some signs of life this week. The best boom-or-bust RB available outside the top tier.RB Toby Gerhart, MIN - Has looked pretty pedestrian in limited duty, but figures to be the handcuff if/when Peterson gets hurt.WR Brandon LaFell, CAR - Quietly making a case for the starting job opposite Steve Smith. I think it's only a matter of time until he wins it. I think he'll be a decent player. I just don't know if he has WR1 potential. WR Emmanuel Sanders, PIT - Sanders has been the recipient of some serious hyperbole. Pitt's GM says he's the best rookie WR that he's seen, which is saying something considering that Mike Wallace and Santonio Holmes came through their system. Sanders catches the ball very cleanly. If he can consistently get separation from pro corners then he might have a future as a starter on this team. WR Victor Cruz, NYG - Resembles late-period Laveranues Coles. So-so speed and height, but good toughness and sticky hands. Looks like he could become a solid second WR in the NFL. Opportunity is an issue for the foreseeable future. TE Fendi Onobun, STL - My favorite project in this draft class continues to build momentum. Ignore him at your own risk. WR Andre Roberts, ARI - My favorite WR sleeper entering the offseason has had a rough camp. He never had issues catching the ball in college, so I have to think that his current struggles in that department are a matter of nerves. I expect him to improve as he gets comfortable and I still think there's compelling potential here despite the rocky start. TE Tony Moeaki, KC - "MASH unit" Moeaki continues to struggle with injuries, but when healthy he's easily the best TE on KC's roster. He's ranked below some of the other TEs in this class because I don't think he has as much upside. TE Rob Gronkowski, NE - I've been down on him throughout the offseason, but he's showing why many scouts thought he would've been a first round pick in 2011 if he had returned to Arizona. WR Eric Decker, DEN - Looks pretty solid. Upside remains an issue for me because he's basically Kevin Walter and if Kevin Walter is starting for your FF team, you're probably not winning anything. TE Ed Dickson, BAL - Yet another TE generating some buzz. I think this has potential to be a great class. WR Stephen Williams, ARI - Training camp darling continues to make plays. Very thin frame, but has height and range. RB Ben Tate, HOU - This year's ultimate boom-or-bust gamble is looking more like a flop after his unfortunate injury. Now his owners will just have to hope that Foster/Johnson/Slaton falter so Tate gets another shot next year. The big gainer is obviously Mike Williams. Spiller, McCluster, Hernandez, and Graham have also improved their standing. What really stands out to me about this group is the quality of the depth. Quite a few of the guys listed outside my top 10 have a legitimate chance to make an impact somewhere down the line. I feel pretty good about my top 8-9 picks. Beyond that it's pretty hard to distinguish between guys.
If undrafted rookie FA Stephen Williams out of Toledo and now in AZ makes the final cut and is their 4th WR, does he make the list?
 
Updated top 10 after camp and most of the preseason would look something like:

WR Stephen Williams, ARI - Training camp darling continues to make plays. Very thin frame, but has height and range.
If undrafted rookie FA Stephen Williams out of Toledo and now in AZ makes the final cut and is their 4th WR, does he make the list?
Looks like I just need to open my eyes :hot: a bit and pay better attention
 
EBF, what are your thoughts now on Jordan Shipley's prospects? He seems to have nailed down the #3WR role in Cincy with Antonio Bryant being cut. Can he be more than a slot WR for the Bengals in the future? Could he replace Owens after this year?

 
Onobun has his hands full with Hoomanawui looking like the more complete player. Guy has more athleticism than I thought so I think he definitely deserves to be mentioned

 
B-DAWK20 said:
EBF, what are your thoughts now on Jordan Shipley's prospects?...Can he be more than a slot WR for the Bengals in the future? Could he replace Owens after this year?
I still think the answer is "no" to both questions, so I'm still not very high on his FF prospects.
 

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