EBF
Footballguy
Got bored and thought I'd slap together some QB rankings. I think it's an interesting time for QBs with some established stars starting to get up there in years and some young guns making a case for themselves.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Excellent every season and still in the midst of his prime. Concussions are a slight concern.
2. Philip Rivers, Chargers - Three straight seasons of excellence in FF and NFL terms. Stats might dip as running game improves.
3. Peyton Manning, Colts - Remains a solid bet for top 5 QB production every season.
4. Tom Brady, Patriots - Improved his TD totals from 2009 and still looks like a top redraft option.
5. Drew Brees, Saints - Regressed a bit after spectacular 2008 and 2009. Slight frame coupled with high number of attempts and fairly advanced age raises some doubts about his long term outlook.
6. Michael Vick, Eagles - Had a dominant season in which his passing stats far exceeded his career averages in every category. Some questions going forward: was 2010 a fluke? How will his advancing age impact his dynamic running skills? He's clearly a top option if you're looking for an immediate difference maker in redraft, but he's far less proven than the guys ranked above him.
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers - Has settled in as a reliable top 6-8 FF QB. Takes a lot of punishment due to supporting cast and playing style, but should still have 2-3 good years left at a minimum.
8. Tony Romo, Cowboys - Was having a fairly mediocre season even before his injuries. Still, he has a long track record of solid production and is still in the prime of his career at just 31 years old next season.
9. Sam Bradford, Rams - Played well when you consider his lack of experience and his laughable supporting cast. Needs to cut down on INTs and increase his yards per attempt next season. He's worth a shot here because of his upside. I kind of feel like he has a chance to be dominant, so I'd be reluctant to trade him, even for a vet like Romo or Brees.
10. Matt Schaub, Texans - Might not be a world beater, but his stats have been rock solid ever since he took over the starting job. There's no good reason why he can't give us 3-4 more years of top 10 production.
11. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers - Progressing nicely and seems to have lapped his 2009 draftmates, at least for now.
12. Matt Ryan, Falcons - Ryan has become a solid NFL starter, but his stats don't exactly scream superstar. His yards per attempt average has been poor each of the past two seasons. On the plus side of things, he improved his accuracy and cut down on turnovers in 2010.
13. Eli Manning, Giants - At this point you know what you're getting with Eli. He threw an alarmingly high number of interceptions this season, but still managed to top 4000 passing yards and 25 passing TDs for the second consecutive season. He's a fringe QB1 for FF leagues and should remain so for a few more years.
14. Jay Cutler, Bears - Cutler is much like Eli and Flacco. He's good, but not elite. At this point there's little mystery to him. He's going to average about 7.5 yards per attempt and toss 20-25 TDs with more than a few interceptions mixed in.
15. Joe Flacco, Ravens - After three seasons, I feel like we have a pretty good read on Joe Flacco. He's a good, but not great QB who will average about 7.2-7.5 yards per attempt per season with something in the neighborhood of 3600-3800 passing yards and 20-25 TDs. That's not bad, but it's nothing to get excited about. In FF terms, Flacco is imminently replaceable.
16. Mark Sanchez, Jets - Sanchez is once again guiding his team to a deep playoff run, but his regular season stats showed minimal improvement between 2009 and 2010. He's still inaccurate with a low yards per attempt average. On the other hand, he cut down on the turnovers this season. His strong postseason showings will ensure that his job security remains high, but another year of mediocre stats will paint a dreary picture about his long term FF prognosis.
17. Matt Stafford, Lions - Stafford hasn't been able to stay healthy. When he has played, the results haven't been pretty. The presence of Calvin Johnson adds to his value though and you have to believe that we haven't seen his best football yet. I think he makes a compelling developmental QB2 in dynasty leagues. Unfortunately, he hasn't really played enough to show us what he's all about.
18. Colt McCoy, Browns - You have to consider McCoy's rookie season an overall success. He had a handful of promising games and finished with respectable stats for a rookie on a terrible team. 60.8% completions and 7.1 yards per attempt puts him right on par with guys like Palmer and Cassel. He needs to cut down on the interceptions next year and prove that his slight frame can handle the rigors of the NFL. It wouldn't hurt if Cleveland gave him something resembling an NFL receiving corps.
19. Tim Tebow, Broncos - Tebow hasn't thrown enough NFL passes to yield concrete conclusions, but his late season audition provided some cause for optimism. He had a lofty yards per attempt average and generally played well enough to keep Denver competitive.
20. Kyle Orton, Broncos - Orton is a mediocrity on par with David Garrard, Carson Palmer, and Matt Cassel. These guys are strictly backup material for FF purposes and lack the upside of younger players who offer more potential to improve.
Random thoughts:
- It's hard to say where the rookie trio of Mallett/Newton/Gabbert fits into the equation without first seeing how high they go in the draft and which team drafts them. I don't see any of them ranking higher than 12th on this list. There's a lot of uncertainty once you get outside the top 10 though. I wouldn't really take exception to gambling on one of them over the likes of Flacco or Cutler since those guys are established mediocrities.
- If you happen to play in a developmental league and you have a shot at Andrew Luck, I'd say he's about equivalent in value to Bradford. I see him becoming a very successful starter at the next level.
- Kevin Kolb and Matt Flynn are two backups who seemingly have starter potential. My beef with Kolb is that his 2010 performance was very mediocre even though he was playing in a friendly system alongside some dynamic offensive talent. Vick was infinitely better with the same supporting cast, which doesn't bode well for Kolb. As for Flynn, he just hasn't played much. If a team like San Francisco goes out and gets him then he would suddenly become a very interesting sleeper candidate. That seems unlikely though.
- Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb have seen their stars fall considerably in recent seasons. Palmer has been poor for two consecutive seasons, despite the fact that the Bengals went out and added a lot of playmakers in the passing game during the offseason. The glimmers of greatness that Palmer showed early in his career are distant memories at this point. I'm a little more optimistic about McNabb's chances for a revival, but it doesn't seem likely in Washington. He was totally mediocre this season and will probably need a change of scenery to bounce back. He turns 35 next season, so it might be the case that he's simply reached his expiration date.
- I have run out of patience with Chad Henne, Trent Edwards, and Alex Smith. They stink.
- Buffalo, Miami, Tennessee, Minnesota, Carolina, Arizona, and San Francisco have truly dire QB situations. I'd pick them as the frontunners to acquire a high profile QB in the offseason or to "earn" the 1st pick in the 2012 NFL draft if they don't. Other QB-starved teams like Oakland, Washington, Cleveland, and Cincinnati will probably scrape their way to a few wins. I actually think the Panthers have a great chance to end up with the #1 pick again next year, partially because their team is awful and partially because their division is brutal. Most of the other dreadful teams have at least one cupcake in their division, increasing the odds of fluke wins.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Excellent every season and still in the midst of his prime. Concussions are a slight concern.
2. Philip Rivers, Chargers - Three straight seasons of excellence in FF and NFL terms. Stats might dip as running game improves.
3. Peyton Manning, Colts - Remains a solid bet for top 5 QB production every season.
4. Tom Brady, Patriots - Improved his TD totals from 2009 and still looks like a top redraft option.
5. Drew Brees, Saints - Regressed a bit after spectacular 2008 and 2009. Slight frame coupled with high number of attempts and fairly advanced age raises some doubts about his long term outlook.
6. Michael Vick, Eagles - Had a dominant season in which his passing stats far exceeded his career averages in every category. Some questions going forward: was 2010 a fluke? How will his advancing age impact his dynamic running skills? He's clearly a top option if you're looking for an immediate difference maker in redraft, but he's far less proven than the guys ranked above him.
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers - Has settled in as a reliable top 6-8 FF QB. Takes a lot of punishment due to supporting cast and playing style, but should still have 2-3 good years left at a minimum.
8. Tony Romo, Cowboys - Was having a fairly mediocre season even before his injuries. Still, he has a long track record of solid production and is still in the prime of his career at just 31 years old next season.
9. Sam Bradford, Rams - Played well when you consider his lack of experience and his laughable supporting cast. Needs to cut down on INTs and increase his yards per attempt next season. He's worth a shot here because of his upside. I kind of feel like he has a chance to be dominant, so I'd be reluctant to trade him, even for a vet like Romo or Brees.
10. Matt Schaub, Texans - Might not be a world beater, but his stats have been rock solid ever since he took over the starting job. There's no good reason why he can't give us 3-4 more years of top 10 production.
11. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers - Progressing nicely and seems to have lapped his 2009 draftmates, at least for now.
12. Matt Ryan, Falcons - Ryan has become a solid NFL starter, but his stats don't exactly scream superstar. His yards per attempt average has been poor each of the past two seasons. On the plus side of things, he improved his accuracy and cut down on turnovers in 2010.
13. Eli Manning, Giants - At this point you know what you're getting with Eli. He threw an alarmingly high number of interceptions this season, but still managed to top 4000 passing yards and 25 passing TDs for the second consecutive season. He's a fringe QB1 for FF leagues and should remain so for a few more years.
14. Jay Cutler, Bears - Cutler is much like Eli and Flacco. He's good, but not elite. At this point there's little mystery to him. He's going to average about 7.5 yards per attempt and toss 20-25 TDs with more than a few interceptions mixed in.
15. Joe Flacco, Ravens - After three seasons, I feel like we have a pretty good read on Joe Flacco. He's a good, but not great QB who will average about 7.2-7.5 yards per attempt per season with something in the neighborhood of 3600-3800 passing yards and 20-25 TDs. That's not bad, but it's nothing to get excited about. In FF terms, Flacco is imminently replaceable.
16. Mark Sanchez, Jets - Sanchez is once again guiding his team to a deep playoff run, but his regular season stats showed minimal improvement between 2009 and 2010. He's still inaccurate with a low yards per attempt average. On the other hand, he cut down on the turnovers this season. His strong postseason showings will ensure that his job security remains high, but another year of mediocre stats will paint a dreary picture about his long term FF prognosis.
17. Matt Stafford, Lions - Stafford hasn't been able to stay healthy. When he has played, the results haven't been pretty. The presence of Calvin Johnson adds to his value though and you have to believe that we haven't seen his best football yet. I think he makes a compelling developmental QB2 in dynasty leagues. Unfortunately, he hasn't really played enough to show us what he's all about.
18. Colt McCoy, Browns - You have to consider McCoy's rookie season an overall success. He had a handful of promising games and finished with respectable stats for a rookie on a terrible team. 60.8% completions and 7.1 yards per attempt puts him right on par with guys like Palmer and Cassel. He needs to cut down on the interceptions next year and prove that his slight frame can handle the rigors of the NFL. It wouldn't hurt if Cleveland gave him something resembling an NFL receiving corps.
19. Tim Tebow, Broncos - Tebow hasn't thrown enough NFL passes to yield concrete conclusions, but his late season audition provided some cause for optimism. He had a lofty yards per attempt average and generally played well enough to keep Denver competitive.
20. Kyle Orton, Broncos - Orton is a mediocrity on par with David Garrard, Carson Palmer, and Matt Cassel. These guys are strictly backup material for FF purposes and lack the upside of younger players who offer more potential to improve.
Random thoughts:
- It's hard to say where the rookie trio of Mallett/Newton/Gabbert fits into the equation without first seeing how high they go in the draft and which team drafts them. I don't see any of them ranking higher than 12th on this list. There's a lot of uncertainty once you get outside the top 10 though. I wouldn't really take exception to gambling on one of them over the likes of Flacco or Cutler since those guys are established mediocrities.
- If you happen to play in a developmental league and you have a shot at Andrew Luck, I'd say he's about equivalent in value to Bradford. I see him becoming a very successful starter at the next level.
- Kevin Kolb and Matt Flynn are two backups who seemingly have starter potential. My beef with Kolb is that his 2010 performance was very mediocre even though he was playing in a friendly system alongside some dynamic offensive talent. Vick was infinitely better with the same supporting cast, which doesn't bode well for Kolb. As for Flynn, he just hasn't played much. If a team like San Francisco goes out and gets him then he would suddenly become a very interesting sleeper candidate. That seems unlikely though.
- Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb have seen their stars fall considerably in recent seasons. Palmer has been poor for two consecutive seasons, despite the fact that the Bengals went out and added a lot of playmakers in the passing game during the offseason. The glimmers of greatness that Palmer showed early in his career are distant memories at this point. I'm a little more optimistic about McNabb's chances for a revival, but it doesn't seem likely in Washington. He was totally mediocre this season and will probably need a change of scenery to bounce back. He turns 35 next season, so it might be the case that he's simply reached his expiration date.
- I have run out of patience with Chad Henne, Trent Edwards, and Alex Smith. They stink.
- Buffalo, Miami, Tennessee, Minnesota, Carolina, Arizona, and San Francisco have truly dire QB situations. I'd pick them as the frontunners to acquire a high profile QB in the offseason or to "earn" the 1st pick in the 2012 NFL draft if they don't. Other QB-starved teams like Oakland, Washington, Cleveland, and Cincinnati will probably scrape their way to a few wins. I actually think the Panthers have a great chance to end up with the #1 pick again next year, partially because their team is awful and partially because their division is brutal. Most of the other dreadful teams have at least one cupcake in their division, increasing the odds of fluke wins.
That list seems silly. It will constantly be changing and filled with young players showing promise. Owners that would take Bradford and Freeman over Rivers will always be rebuilding.
ire need at QB
