coolnerd
Footballguy
My guess is that the bust rate is not that high. Generally either the true elite or injured skip the workouts.
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[DYNASTY] 2013 Top 20 Rookies (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
cstu
Footballguy
4.53 at 202 lbs. isn't encouraging. If he puts on some weight like he will likely have to he's probably a 4.6 runner. I also don't think he did enough to differentiate himself from Franklin.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I thought Marquess Wilson had a very good showing today.Lande or someone reported that Patterson bombed the interviews.
coolnerd
Footballguy
Not surprised about wilson. IMO, if he did not have the personality meltdown he would have been a top 5 WR and lock 2nd round pick and probably 50/50 to go in the 1st.
cstu
Footballguy
He's still a good back, but the Ray Rice comparisons seem like a stretch now.
lod01
Footballguy
Gotta be the toughest dynasty draft I've ever seen. There are at least 5 solid TE prospects, a dozen or so RBs, and about 2 dozen WRs of wihci ther is no clear cut #1. Usually I can fill in the top 6 picks in Dynasty. This year I can't even find a consensus #1. It should be clearer after the NFL draft, however.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I'd say Lacy is going to be pretty close to the consensus #1 unless one of the top WR's lands in a perfect situation.
EBF
Footballguy
Eifert is a strong TE1. Lacy is a strong RB1. After that you've got a big dropoff at their positions and a grab bag of about 10-12 WRs who have reasonable FF potential. Sorting out those WR clusters will be the big key to winning your rookie drafts.
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EBF
Footballguy
Like him. Don't love him. He's been on the radar for a long time. Had a good freshman season, but then never really built on it.His height/weight/speed combo ensures that he won't be out of his depth in the NFL. Main concerns would be about vision, elusiveness, and durability. We know he's an athlete. Can he make difficult cuts? Can he make people miss? Can he catch the ball? Can he avoid the big hits well enough to stay healthy? I have him as a top 3-5 back in this draft, but I think he's a 3rd-4th round value in the NFL draft. My guess is that he'll be a serviceable pro. Not a superstar.
EBF
Footballguy
Spent some time today looking deeper into this WR class. Some thoughts:- Justin Hunter and Marquess Wilson are alarmingly thin for their height. Basically off the charts. If you look at the top 20 FF WRs last year, nobody is as thin as these guys. AJ Green is the thinnest of all the elite receivers and he has a BMI of 26.0. Wilson and Hunter both come in at 24.2. In terms of weight per height, they are actually thinner than DeSean Jackson (24.7). If you want an encouraging comparison, Sidney Rice is probably the closest thing to a successful parallel. At 6'3" 200 pounds as a draft prospect, he had a 24.7 BMI. However, he has had a lot of trouble staying healthy in the NFL and his slight frame might have something to do with that. If you put any stock in the numbers, they suggest to be wary of Hunter and Wilson. I really like Wilson's strong hands and ability to win jump balls, but he is paper thin for his height and doesn't have great speed or measured explosiveness to compensate. I am more optimistic about Hunter because his 4.44 40 and elite 39.5" vert and 11'4" broad jump suggest that he might have enough standout traits in other categories to overcome his lack of strength. - Keenan Allen is a bit thin for his height. It's not a huge deal, but if he doesn't run and jump well at his pro day then the overall picture will be a little bit troubling. You'll be putting a lot of stock in the eyeball test if you take him high, because he doesn't check off all the boxes on paper. Of the 16 current NFL receivers that I consider elite, 15 have a higher BMI, and 11 of them are at least 1 full point higher on the scale. - Chris Harper is on the other end of the spectrum. His 30.5 BMI is a full point higher than Andre Johnson, the heaviest of the elite WRs and the only current top 20 WR with a BMI of 29+. He might be a little too big for his own good. 4.55 is reasonable speed for a WR his size, but his jumps weren't all that impressive. I have concerns about his ability to separate at this size, but he's going to present a challenge for defensive backs because he's a load.- Without question, the star of the combine was Josh Boyce. Not only did he run one of the fastest 40 times at 4.38, but he also had the fourth best BMI among the realistic draft prospects behind only Harper, Marcus Davis, and Mark Harrison. Basically, he has the best size/speed ratio in this WR class by a wide margin. Jumping 10'11" in the broad jump is more proof that he has a lot of vertical explosiveness. In my opinion he also looked dynamite in the routes and drills. Look for him to go a lot higher in the draft that currently projected. Probably 2nd-3rd round. In terms of NFL comparisons, I'd point to Pierre Garcon and Victor Cruz. About the same height. About the same weight. Can't leap like Cruz, but has more pure speed. That sounds a lot like Garcon. - If you're looking for a receiver who has a chance to develop into a premium FF talent, I'd suggest focusing on the following: Chris Harper, Marcus Davis, Mark Harrison, Josh Boyce, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, Quinton Patton, and Da'Rick Rogers. If there's a future Pro Bowl type of receiver in this class, it's probably one of those guys. I think Allen, Hunter, Wheaton, and Woods also have value, but there are warts. Wheaton is too small to be a #1 and not quite fast enough to dominate despite that. As mentioned previously, Hunter is rail thin. Other than that, he checks every box. Production, speed, explosiveness. Woods just screams #2 receiver because he doesn't have any special athletic qualities.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I'm really starting to like Hunter. On an nfl training regimen I don't think hell have any problem putting on 15-20 pounds. Could be wrong but I don't think Randy Moss was much bigger in college.
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Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Those statements above suggest to me you're focusing you analysis on the combine way too much. If finding premium NFL talent was as simply as measuring BMIs relative to their speed and jumping ability from a stand up position, then maybe that list of potential premium NFL talent would be more apt and more closely resemble how the actual NFL draft turns out. Mark Harrison, and Marcus Davis severely lack WR skills, which is much harder to develop in the NFL than it is to put on 10 pounds in the NFL for guys like Hunter/Wilson. Boyce, Patterson, and Rogers also have a pretty bad tendency for body catching, which can be a pretty difficult tendency to shake. I'd easily take the Allen, Hunter, Wilson, Woods, and Wheaton group, warts and all, over the bolded group.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I haven't seen much, if any mention of Ryan Swope. After his impressive combine time I started watching some film on him. He is tough, a very good route runner and no one catches him from behind. People may be missing the buss on this guy.
EBF
Footballguy
I think you have to clarify what you're looking for. If you're just looking for a solid starter for your NFL team, give me Patton, Woods, and Wheaton all day over guys like Harrison and Davis. However, if you're looking for a player who has a non-zero probability of developing into a frontline NFL #1 WR, I'd argue that guys like Patton, Woods, and Wheaton simply don't have the athletic raw materials needed for the job. Here's a rough list of the guys that I'd currently consider elite #1 receivers in the NFL. There are four numbers alongside their names: their BMI, 40, vertical leap, and broad jump.
Andre Johnson - 29.5 (4.41 - 39" - 11'0")
Vincent Jackson - 28.9 (4.46 - 39" - 10'9")
Dez Bryant - 28.8 (4.52 - 38" - 11'1")
Victor Cruz - 28.3 (4.47 - 41.5" - 10'5")
Calvin Johnson - 28.3 (4.35 - 42.5" - 11'7")
Larry Fitzgerald - 28.3 - ???
Hakeem Nicks - 28.3 (4.51, 36", ??)
Michael Crabtree - 28.1 - ???
Demaryius Thomas - 27.8 - ???
Julio Jones - 27.8 (4.34 - 38.5" - 11'3")
Brandon Marshall - 27.6 (4.52 - 37" - 10'0")
Roddy White - 27.2 (4.46 - 41" - 10'6")
Steve Smith - 27.2 (4.41 - 38.5" - 10'1")
Reggie Wayne - 26.9
Marques Colston - 26.9 (4.50 - 37" - 10'3")
Percy Harvin - 26.7 (4.39 - 37.5" - 10'1")
AJ Green - 26.0 (4.48 - 34.5" - 10'6")
What jumps out at me is that almost all of these guys had very strong numbers in at least two out of the three drills that I'm looking at here. To be a special player in the NFL, you generally have to be an exceptional athlete. And that's usually going to show up in the drills. Not always, but usually.
Not every workout warrior is going to be a great NFL player. That goes without saying. Guys like Marcus Davis and Mark Harrison are probably just this year's version of guys like Johnnie Morant and Paul Hubbard. Receivers who looked the part on paper, but couldn't play a lick.
Elite athletic qualities aren't sufficient for superstardom, but they might be necessary. You need a certain combination of speed, strength, and explosiveness to reach the Pro Bowl level. When I look at guys like Woods and Patton, I don't see that. I see solid #2 receivers who have a relatively low ceiling. They will probably be good pros and in the right system they can be useful WR2-WR3 types for FF teams, but they have no probability of ever being a dominant #1.
When you talk about trying to assess the FF value of these players, I think you need to know what you're getting. A guy like Marcus Davis is probably 85% likely to be a bust. A guy like Quinton Patton or Robert Woods probably has a 35-60% chance of becoming a solid pro. The difference is that Davis has a higher ceiling in the unlikely event that he puts all the pieces together.
Hunter is kind of a different beast. He's extremely skinny. On the other hand, he's distinct from guys like Woods and Patton because of his hops and speed. He probably belongs in the group with guys like Rogers and Patterson who appear to have enough standout athletic traits to become elite #1 receivers if it turns out that they have solid football skills in addition to their athletic gifts (which is another debate).
EBF
Footballguy
He's another guy who looks better when you start to take all of the numbers into account. Blazing 40 time. Good jumps. Solid production. I agree that he could be a solid value pick, but now I need to go back and see if he passes the eyeball test.
identikit
Footballguy
Small hands.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
LOL. I didn't see him drop many balls and he has the speed to get behind people. Right now I am looking at him as a solid flyer, with upside from there. I think he might be suffering from some reverse prejudice of the position.
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maxwelledison
Footballguy
Carnies. Eta:spelling.
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32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
What means this?
maxwelledison
Footballguy
Dumb movie reference. Carry on.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Thanks for contributing
BlackMamba24
Footballguy
Any idea what range Eifert will go in rookie drafts? seems like a lock for the 1st round
Xue
Footballguy
I would take Crabtree off that list. He's not an elite WR.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
How many of those players you listed didn't dominate and produce in the NCAA? And it's not like there hasn't been any #1 FF WR's who did struggle at the combine recently. I don't know where to get all their combine numbers, but I'm sure some of Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, and Donald Driver didn't do well at the combine.
And all it takes for a guy with a WR2 athleticism to put up some WR1 seasons is to be in a good situation. Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson, and TJ Houshmandzadeh have all had a season or two of putting up top 10 FF numbers.
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BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Hunter dropped weight specifically training for the 40. He played heavier than that and plans to put it back on. You can call that a red flag if you want - that he had to cut weight to run faster. But he won't look anything like Wilson, I don't think, by the time camps get going.
deadlyrange0321
Footballguy
Where do you guys see someone like Mark Harrison being drafted? 4-6th rounds on NFL Draft?Seems like a nice sleeper for late2nd/early3rd of rookie drafts
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Really appreciate your efforts EBF. I'm much more of a believer in the BMI for RBs though. Just don't think its nearly as critical for a WR, especially in todays NFL where DBs get flagged for sneezing on a WR. I'm not sure what numbers you are using, but these are the one's I've found (NFL combine and pro football reference) and the formula for BMI is from the CDC.
This list includes Hunter, Wilson, AJ Green and the top 10 NFL receivers of all time.
Marvin Harrison 6'0" 175lbs BMI 23.7
Justin Hunter 6'4" 196lbs BMI 23.9
James Lofton 6'3" 192lbs BMI 24
Marquess Wilson 6'3" 194lbs BMI 24.2
Randy Moss 6'4" 205lbs BMI 25
Henry Ellard 5'11" 180lbs BMI 25.1
AJ Green 6'4" 207lbs BMI 25.2
Cris Carter 6'3" 202lbs BMI 25.2
Isaac Bruce 6'0" 188lbs BMI 25.5
Jerry Rice 6'2" 200lbs BMI 25.7
Torry Holt 6'0" 190lbs BMI 25.8
Tim Brown 6'0" 195lbs BMI 26.4
Terrell Owens 6'3" 226lbs BMI 28.2
Hunter would need to add 9 lbs to get to a 25 BMI. Wilson would need 6 lbs.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not sure how useful it is to look at players who came into the league 15-30 years ago. The game seems to have evolved a little bit. Players are getting bigger and faster all the time. We talk a lot about speed, but not as much attention is given to strength. I think it's a really important ingredient. Here are the top 20 ppg WRs in my PPR leagues last season, along with their BMI:Calvin Johnson - 28.3
Brandon Marshall - 27.6
Dez Bryant - 28.8
AJ Green - 26.0
Andre Johnson - 29.5
Demaryius Thomas - 27.8
Wes Welker - 29.1
Percy Harvin - 26.7
Eric Decker - 27.0
Roddy White - 27.2
Reggie Wayne - 26.9
Julio Jones - 27.8
Vincent Jackson - 28.9
Victor Cruz - 28.3
Marques Colston - 26.9
Randall Cobb - 27.2
Michael Crabtree - 28.1
Danario Alexander - 25.8
James Jones - 27.6
Jordy Nelson - 27.5
You'll note that there aren't a lot of small guys here. Most of them are between 27-29.
The only guy here with a sub 26 is Danario Alexander, and he hasn't exactly been the picture of health in the NFL.
I doubt it's pure coincidence that we're seeing a pretty narrow range of body types at the top of the leaderboard. For whatever reason, this type of physique is best suited to the job description. That doesn't mean that it's the only route to success. Randy Moss was built like a twig and he dominated for a decade. Just like at RB, I think there's room for atypical players to thrive. However, the same rule applies. If you're lacking strength, you have to compensate in other categories. Moss was like CJ Spiller or Jamaal Charles. Small for his position, but so fast and explosive that he could still thrive. He was also really tall with great jump ball skills. A guy like Hunter has some of those same qualities, and so I'm inclined to be open-minded about his chance of success even though he's outside the conventional mold.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Are we? While the BMI numbers may be close would anyone say that Calvin, Welker, Cruz, Harvin, Nelson or White have similiar body types? They are all about as completely different body types as could be. Cruz and White's numbers surprise me a little as they both appear supper skinny.
It's actually amzing that Welker has the second highest BMI after AJ - people just don't realize how strong that guy is.
EBF
Footballguy
According to NFL draft scout, Jennings ran 4.42 and jumped 36.5" in the vert. Holt ran 4.44 with a 37" vertical. These are not bad athletes. I can't dispute Boldin and Chad. They are much more athletic than the numbers would suggest. However, the poor numbers are almost certainly why they fell to the 2nd round instead of going in the first.Let me be clear that I'm not suggesting that every player with great workout numbers is a great prospect. When you start to dig into the numbers, people often attribute that kind of rigid argument to you. That's not the argument that I'm making. What I'm suggesting is that a certain set of physical skills might be necessary, but not sufficient to achieve real superstardom. The issue with guys like Mark Harrison, Marcus Davis, and Josh Boyce is that they were just moderately productive in college. So while they seem to have the necessary physical tools, you have to ask questions about their ability to apply that on the field. These guys are still worth a gamble at some point, but what you really want is a player who has everything. The reason I felt good about guys like Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, and Justin Blackmon is that they had everything. They were productive. They looked the part on the field. Their measurables indicated enough athleticism to thrive. There's nobody quite like that in this class. The closest thing on paper is probably Da'Rick Rogers. I think Hunter, Patterson, Boyce, and Davis are also in the conversation. Maybe Allen depending on how he tests. Patterson, Boyce, and Davis were not quite as productive as you'd expect. On the other hand, their production wasn't terrible in the context. Patterson has some excuse for his low numbers because he was a juco transfer and he had an elite WR opposite him siphoning targets. Boyce had 998 receiving yards in 13 games as a sophomore and holds the school record in career TD catches. If you stretch his yards per game averages from his last two seasons to 16 games, he would've topped 1000 yards both seasons. Similar story with Davis. His production was actually good this season. 953 yards at 18.7 yards per catch in 13 games on a team not known for its passing prowess (Virginia Tech). People make him out to be this total project, but in looking at the stats and watching all of his targets against Rutgers, I wonder if he might be a little better than given credit for. Even Mark Harrison, who I would say is the most likely to become a Paul Hubbard or Johnnie Morant, has a 800+ yard season on his resume. There is nobody in this class who has that slam dunk Calvin, Dez, or Julio combination of production, measurables, and draft pedigree. But there are some guys who have enough of the pieces to maybe become impact #1 WRs in the NFL some day.
I agree with this. In my view the main reason why guys like Eric Decker, Lance Moore, and Randall Cobb have the FF value that they do is because they play on teams with good QBs who can take advantage of secondary weapons. It might work out the same way with TY Hilton. He has warts as a player, but having Luck as his QB could lead to several productive seasons despite that. The value of guys like Woods, Patton, and Wheaton will be closely tied to their situation. I think all three of those players have a good chance to become solid NFL contributors. I like them as prospects. However, I don't see the potential to become top 10 NFL WRs independent of situation. They need to get lucky like Decker and Cobb.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
How many of those players who have displayed WR1 type athleticism at the combine but had mediocre NCAA production actually went on to be WR1s in the NFL though? Only ones I would guess in that WR1 list you made is the two who played in the FCS, Cruz and Colston. Is there any evidence to suggest it's higher than the amount of players who didn't display WR1 type athleticism but produced well in college and went on to be WR1s in the NFL? And I'm wearing of assuming guys like Crabtree and Blackmon, who skip out on competing at the combine, would have displayed WR1 athleticism if they did compete. Also, how come Chris Harper and DeAndre Hopkins managed to make your premium FF talent list, but Robert Woods and Markus Wheaton didn't? Woods' BMI of 27.3 fits decently well in your list, and his 40 time and broad jump were better than both Harper and Hopkins. And Wheaton has a BMI of 26.4, which puts him above your 26.0 number, and he had a better 40 time, broad jump, and vertical jump than all 3 of those guys.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with this. Even Mayock was saying he needs to go and watch more tape on Swopes because of how well he performed at the combine.
EBF
Footballguy
Right, and that's why I'm not sitting here telling you to take Mark Harrison as the #1 WR in this draft. Mediocre production is kind of subjective though. Were Patterson, Davis, and Boyce mediocre? Probably, but then again some of that is going to hinge on supporting cast and scheme. Patterson was a first year NCAA player on a team that already had an experienced #1. Davis played for Virginia Tech. I can't remember the last time that school had a 1000+ yard receiver. Andre Davis? That was what...15 years ago? Same goes for TCU. The fact that Jeremy Kerley had a career high of 575 receiving yards in college tells you that they don't necessarily utilize their WR talent to the same extent that a school like USC, Texas Tech, or Notre Dame might. These guys weren't stars, but they did pretty well when you consider all of the variables.
Woods lacks any standout physical traits and Wheaton is probably too small to be a #1. Hopkins didn't test that well, but he weighs 217 pounds. I don't expect much from Harper and would probably prefer Woods and Wheaton, but he at least has a monster frame. Bear in mind that I'm not saying you automatically take the potential #1 targets over the likely #2 targets. Wheaton and Woods are better players than guys like Harrison and Harper. They just don't have #1 potential. Higher floor. Lower ceiling. Who you take is going to depend on the price and on what you're looking for. Remember that this stuff isn't black and white. You're talking about shades of gray. With a guy like Wheaton, his outlook would be a lot rosier if he were an inch taller and fifteen pounds heavier, but he still has some special qualities. He's pretty fast, he's strong for his height, and his jumps were pretty good overall. I think he's highly likely to be a useful NFL player. I just think he's going to max out as a WR2-WR3 for fantasy. Similar story with Woods. He's good. He just doesn't have the potential to be great independent of situation, IMO.
Xue
Footballguy
Victor Cruz is not skinny at all. http://www.usatodaysportsimages.com/image/thumb/600-600/4819860.jpg
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah it's odd I thought that as I watch the Giants every week (in the market). I'v always though of him as small and thin, not sure why.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Again, I don't see what reason there is to be convinced the number of FF WR1s who dominated the NFL combine put didn't produce great in NCAA outnumbers the number of FF WR1s who didn't do well in the NFL combine but produced greatly in college. And it's not like this year's prospects are the only ones who faced adverse variables too, if you're going to treat them subjectively then you gotta treat everyone in the past subjectively as well. Johnnie Morant was the only Syracuse WR to have more than 625 yards receiving between 1999 and 2006 when he had 799 receiving yards in 2003. If Woods doesn't have a standout trait, what are Hopkins and Harper's stand out traits? It seems you're considering their stand out traits to be nothing more than having a BMI above 28.0. But that leaves out guys like Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, and AJ Green who had BMI's under 28 but didn't really exhibit any stand out traits at the combine. Really I'm not disagreeing that Woods/Wheaton look like WR2's, I'm just disagreeing with the idea that if a player is simply big, he has WR1 potential.
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EBF
Footballguy
In general, you want someone who has football skills and physical skills. If you can't find someone who has both, that's where you're left to pick between the different traits. Robert Woods has good football skills, but purely as an athlete there's not a lot of growth potential. It's basically inconceivable that he's going to suddenly gain 20 pounds of muscle and shave .15 off his 40. On the flipside, I think there's a non-zero probability of a guy like Marcus Davis either: a.) having better football skills than given credit for AND/OR b.) developing his football skills to a point where he can take advantage of his natural physical talent. That doesn't mean it's likely that he's going to put it together. That just means there's a chance. I don't think innate WR skills can be improved a whole lot with experience. I'd say the same at QB or even RB. If you don't have the vision and instincts to make plays, you're probably never going to develop it. So I'm not really that excited about the prospect of rostering Mark Harrison in my dynasty leagues. I would much rather have Woods or Patton, even though I think their odds of ever being one of the top 15 receivers in the league at any time are basically nil. Where I think this stuff is most useful is in separating players who are otherwise similar. For example, Da'Rick Rogers, Robert Woods, Quinton Patton, and Markus Wheaton were all productive college players. They will probably all come off the board in the same general range in April. However, Rogers is the only guy in the group who fits the physical mold of a prototypical #1 receiver. With that being the case, I would be inclined to take him first if I had to choose from among that group. I think he has a similar likelihood to be successful and the highest ceiling of that bunch, so he makes sense as the first choice. Every case is unique though. I didn't draft Stephen Hill in any leagues last year. I don't think he's a good receiver or a fluid route runner. The numbers are just part of the equation. If you don't think a guy can play, you don't take him over a solid #2 receiver just because he weighs 220 or can run fast.'Time Kibitzer said:
deadlyrange0321
Footballguy
EBF, what's your opinion on Andre Ellington?Obviously it was disappointing to see him pull up in the 40 at the combine, but what is your opinion of his game translating to the NFL. He was highly productive at Clemson and seems to play pretty fast. Concerned about his size a little bit. Even if the numbers don't say so, he looks small to me.Admittedly, I haven't had a real chance to look at him, so I'm passing to you.
EBF
Footballguy
I think there's a place for him in the NFL. He was always productive in college. Even as a freshman and sophomore he was making explosive plays. Style wise, he's similar to Jamaal Charles. Leaner build, but with good moves and vision. He is actually a bit more compact. However, he doesn't have that kind of pure speed. To be a full time guy at that size you really need to have special speed and burst like Spiller and Charles. I don't think Ellington has that, so my hunch is that he'll be a change of pace option in the NFL. If you look at what Daryl Richardson did for the Rams this year, that's the kind of production that I think Ellington can give you. I don't think he has a good chance to be a 200+ carry guy though.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
EBF- Why has Markus Wheaton dropped so much in your eyes? Had a good combine and was one of your top players at one time.
EBF
Footballguy
I still like him. I just think he's going to have a hard time being a target hog at 5'11" 189. Before the Senior Bowl I thought he might be around 6'1". I thought he had a chance to be a Torry Holt/Chad Johnson type. Now I'm thinking more like a slightly lesser Santonio Holmes/DeSean Jackson mix. A WR2-WR3 for FF purposes. Slight frame. Ran fast, but probably needed a sub 4.4 to justify first round talk at that size. I've bumped him down below some of the guys who appear to have more potential to become a real #1 receiver. He's good though. Strikes me as having very little bust risk. Could be a really nice supporting player on a team like the Colts, Steelers, or Redskins. Probably a bit too small to be your 130+ target per season kind of WR.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
But as has been said in earlier posts, you don't need to be 220+lbs and have a 4.36 40 to be a #1 WR. Guys like Chad Johnson, and Reggie Wayne have been #1 WRs in recent times with similar measurables to what Woods has. I think it's very possible that a guy with excellent WR skills but mediocre athleticism could be more likely to become a WR1 than a guy with excellent athleticism but mediocre WR skills is to become a WR1; depending on the players, of course.
EBF
Footballguy
If it's possible, nobody is doing it. Wayne is not a mediocre athlete. He's actually quite big and fast. Draft Scout has him as a 4.45 in the 40. Almost 200 pounds at 6' flat. I don't have vertical or broad jump numbers for him, but I'd be surprised if they were worse than what Woods did. He also has insane body control and hands. Tack that onto the physical talent and you get a very good pro WR. Subjectively, I don't think Woods is quite as athletic. He's a good football player, but I don't think he moves and catches quite as well as Wayne. And Wayne is, on paper, one of the least gifted athletes among the elite NFL receivers. Most of the others are bigger and/or faster. Ochocinco is a guy who was WAY more athletic on the field than the sum of his combine numbers. When he was in his prime on the Bengals he was dynamite. No, he didn't run fast or jump high in his pre-draft workouts, but at the time there were questions about his starting technique. And if it seems inconsistent to say one player who tests poorly is a great athlete and one player who tests poorly isn't, I'd also point to what Chad did in college. He only played one season at Oregon State, but during that year he averaged 21.6 yards per catch. Those are not the stats of a player who lacks speed and explosiveness. I like Woods well enough, but at best he is a 1B type of receiver in the NFL. In the right offense that uses WRs from the Bruce/Holt/Harrison/Wayne mold, maybe he can flirt with WR1 production. I really don't see the potential for him to become a perennial Pro Bowl threat though. You just don't see guys with this profile doing that on an annual basis in today's NFL.
ZWK
Footballguy
Robert Woods averaged 7.2 yards per target this season, which was last among the 30 WR prospects in this draft class whose numbers I looked at here. That was with Barkley at quarterback, and Lee drawing the defense's attention. The only other guys under 8.0 yards per target were Kenny Stills, Aaron Dobson, Marquise Goodwin, and Ace Sanders.
In his big year, 2011, Woods averaged 7.8 yards per target. In 2010 it was 7.6. He caught a lot of passes in 2011, but on a per-play basis, his college production was not very good.
In his big year, 2011, Woods averaged 7.8 yards per target. In 2010 it was 7.6. He caught a lot of passes in 2011, but on a per-play basis, his college production was not very good.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
You can't say no one is doing it and then exclude Chad Johnson's combine because he looks faster on tape. Again, if you're going to treat one player subjectively, you have to treat every player subjectively; plenty of players have looked slower on tape then how they performed at the combine. The saving grace about the combine is it's objectivity, everyone is in the same situation so there's no excuses. Woods measured in at the same height as Wayne and weighed in 3 lbs heavier. His 40 time was 0.06 slower, which is significant, but not a massive difference. And who knows, maybe Woods will do better at his pro day that closely resemble Victor Cruz' and other players numbers who don't have combine numbers. But really, my point has less to do with Robert Woods specifically, and more to do with the idea that I disagree that players with elite athleticism but mediocre college production are infinitely more likely to be WR1s in the NFL relative to players with mediocre athleticism but great college production.
As I mentioned earlier, I'm not trying to suggest Woods is an elite prospect, but I think that thread you have their is pretty interesting. Do you have a simple correlation graph or something that makes it obvious that players with a higher yards per target are more likely to have NFL success?
ZWK
Footballguy
I don't have NFL performance numbers in that data file so I can't run a correlation, but if I pick out the 20 top NFL receivers from the data set and look at their yards per target in their last college season, I get this:9.5 Justin Blackmon10.0 Torrey Smith10.1 AJ Green10.5 Julio Jones8.4 Randall Cobb11.5 Dez Bryant14.0 Demaryius Thomas10.0 Eric Decker8.4 Antonio Brown11.7 Dez Bryant8.0 Michael Crabtree11.6 Hakeem Nicks9.4 Jeremy Maclin10.1 Kenny Britt10.2 Percy Harvin10.2 Mike Wallace10.0 Jordy Nelson10.4 Steve Johnson8.7 Calvin Johnson10.1 Dwayne BoweEvery one had at least 8.0 ypt, and 14/20 had 10+ ypt (or at least 9.9 ypt - a couple of these are rounded up). 16/20 had at least one college season with 10+ ypt (add Blackmon & Crabtree to the list).
EBF
Footballguy
In my view yards per target is a stat that's biased towards deep threats. I watched quite a bit of USC during Woods's time there and it seemed like they threw lots of sideways passes and bubble screens. Doesn't totally excuse his low yards per catch throughout his career, but probably had something to do with it.
