[Dynasty] 2014 Draft Prospects (2 Viewers)

[Xue]

Keith Wenning is what we think David Fales is.

 

[jurb26]

Keith Wenning is what we think David Fales is.

What doe we think Fales is?

 

[ZWK]

Peshek: RB Metrics 2.0

Peshek's elusiveness numbers correlate pretty strongly with the ones I've been keeping, but Sims & Freeman both grade out worse in his numbers. That'll send both of them down my rankings.

Here are Peshek's elusiveness numbers (broken tackle percentage and capped yards after contact) for the 10 RBs who he charted for the full season (along 3 others who he charted midseason):

Btk% YaCC Player

7.92% 3.48 Carlos Hyde

12.5% 2.95 Melvin Gordon ***

8.70% 2.92 Antonio Andrews ***

8.59% 2.93 Jeremy Hill

8.33% 2.89 Lache Seastrunk

7.10% 2.79 Andre Williams

8.05% 2.67 Storm Johnson

6.19% 2.78 Tre Mason

5.20% 2.81 Ka'Deem Carey

6.42% 2.49 Charles Sims

4.14% 2.62 Devonta Freeman

4.56% 2.45 Bishop Sankey

5.00% 2.20 Marion Grice ***

 

[Gandalf]

How do Peshek's past metrics matchup with being successful in the nfl? Does it go back to guys like Charles, ADP, Trich?

I ask because he's the guy that was down on Sammy Watkins for catching all those screen passes. That wasn't something that worried me.

I think all these data are good to have. And at the same time, I wonder how well they correlate to doing well in the nfl.

 

[Faust]

2014 Pro Days: Fales, Jones turn heads at San Jose State workout

 

[Faust]

2014 NFL Draft: What we learned from Wednesday's pro days

 

[Xue]

Keith Wenning is what we think David Fales is.

What doe we think Fales is?

Some are very high on him, as much as Garoppolo. What people love about Fales is his "ball placement", yet Wenning is just as good, but with better mechanics, a slightly better arm, and a better deep ball.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

How do Peshek's past metrics matchup with being successful in the nfl? Does it go back to guys like Charles, ADP, Trich?

I ask because he's the guy that was down on Sammy Watkins for catching all those screen passes. That wasn't something that worried me.

I think all these data are good to have. And at the same time, I wonder how well they correlate to doing well in the nfl.

It would be nice if Peshek actually came to some conclusions with analysis and wrapped up the articles instead of just tossing a bunch of numbers into a graph and adding a few comments. I respect that he spent all of that time breaking down each player's games (better him than me), but it sort of goes to waste without spending one more paragraph saying what he thinks it all means.

 

[Xue]

How do Peshek's past metrics matchup with being successful in the nfl? Does it go back to guys like Charles, ADP, Trich?

I ask because he's the guy that was down on Sammy Watkins for catching all those screen passes. That wasn't something that worried me.

I think all these data are good to have. And at the same time, I wonder how well they correlate to doing well in the nfl.

It would be nice if Peshek actually came to some conclusions with analysis and wrapped up the articles instead of just tossing a bunch of numbers into a graph and adding a few comments. I respect that he spent all of that time breaking down each player's games (better him than me), but it sort of goes to waste without spending one more paragraph saying what he thinks it all means.

I think most of the data is inconclusive in making concrete predictions/projections into the the NFL. It's up to the reader to assess what traits lead to success or not. Even then, with RBs most of the time all that matters for production is opportunity.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

How do Peshek's past metrics matchup with being successful in the nfl? Does it go back to guys like Charles, ADP, Trich?

I ask because he's the guy that was down on Sammy Watkins for catching all those screen passes. That wasn't something that worried me.

I think all these data are good to have. And at the same time, I wonder how well they correlate to doing well in the nfl.

It would be nice if Peshek actually came to some conclusions with analysis and wrapped up the articles instead of just tossing a bunch of numbers into a graph and adding a few comments. I respect that he spent all of that time breaking down each player's games (better him than me), but it sort of goes to waste without spending one more paragraph saying what he thinks it all means.

I think most of the data is inconclusive in making concrete predictions/projections into the the NFL. It's up to the reader to assess what traits lead to success or not. Even then, with RBs most of the time all that matters for production is opportunity.

The bolded is where I have the problem. Why am I supposed to make sense of his work? After all, it is HIS work. Does someone give a presentation or a college thesis with a bunch of data and not offer a conclusion? He shows all of this stuff, but what is that supposed to mean for readers? Do a certain % of backs with X metric go on to do have Y level of success in the NFL? Is there a predictive nature to all of the work that he does that gives us some insight into these RBs? If so, what is it? If so, which RBs does Peshek like best? Have a take and make a statement to go along with your article. How hard would it be to say something like, "Based on these important numbers and historical success of RBs with similar metrics, I think Carlos Hyde and Tre Mason (or whomever) are likely to be the two best RBs in this draft." Even if I may disagree with Sigmund Bloom's article on Jordan Matthews, at least he makes his case and goes on record to say what he thinks. Or Matt Waldman or anyone worth their salt. Sorry, /rant.

 

[Xue]

How do Peshek's past metrics matchup with being successful in the nfl? Does it go back to guys like Charles, ADP, Trich?

I ask because he's the guy that was down on Sammy Watkins for catching all those screen passes. That wasn't something that worried me.

I think all these data are good to have. And at the same time, I wonder how well they correlate to doing well in the nfl.

It would be nice if Peshek actually came to some conclusions with analysis and wrapped up the articles instead of just tossing a bunch of numbers into a graph and adding a few comments. I respect that he spent all of that time breaking down each player's games (better him than me), but it sort of goes to waste without spending one more paragraph saying what he thinks it all means.

I think most of the data is inconclusive in making concrete predictions/projections into the the NFL. It's up to the reader to assess what traits lead to success or not. Even then, with RBs most of the time all that matters for production is opportunity.

The bolded is where I have the problem. Why am I supposed to make sense of his work? After all, it is HIS work. Does someone give a presentation or a college thesis with a bunch of data and not offer a conclusion? He shows all of this stuff, but what is that supposed to mean for readers? Do a certain % of backs with X metric go on to do have Y level of success in the NFL? Is there a predictive nature to all of the work that he does that gives us some insight into these RBs? If so, what is it? If so, which RBs does Peshek like best? Have a take and make a statement to go along with your article. How hard would it be to say something like, "Based on these important numbers and historical success of RBs with similar metrics, I think Carlos Hyde and Tre Mason (or whomever) are likely to be the two best RBs in this draft." Even if I may disagree with Sigmund Bloom's article on Jordan Matthews, at least he makes his case and goes on record to say what he thinks. Or Matt Waldman or anyone worth their salt. Sorry, /rant.

Most of Peshek's "work" is simply just charting. RBs, to a certain extent, are similar or close in talent than people think. His metrics for WRs probably reveal more than those for the RBs.

I think he's just playing it safe rather than say something out of his ###. I'd rather have no answer than a wrong answer.

 

[ZWK]

How do Peshek's past metrics matchup with being successful in the nfl? Does it go back to guys like Charles, ADP, Trich?

I ask because he's the guy that was down on Sammy Watkins for catching all those screen passes. That wasn't something that worried me.

I think all these data are good to have. And at the same time, I wonder how well they correlate to doing well in the nfl.

It would be nice if Peshek actually came to some conclusions with analysis and wrapped up the articles instead of just tossing a bunch of numbers into a graph and adding a few comments. I respect that he spent all of that time breaking down each player's games (better him than me), but it sort of goes to waste without spending one more paragraph saying what he thinks it all means.

I think most of the data is inconclusive in making concrete predictions/projections into the the NFL. It's up to the reader to assess what traits lead to success or not. Even then, with RBs most of the time all that matters for production is opportunity.

The bolded is where I have the problem. Why am I supposed to make sense of his work? After all, it is HIS work. Does someone give a presentation or a college thesis with a bunch of data and not offer a conclusion? He shows all of this stuff, but what is that supposed to mean for readers? Do a certain % of backs with X metric go on to do have Y level of success in the NFL? Is there a predictive nature to all of the work that he does that gives us some insight into these RBs? If so, what is it? If so, which RBs does Peshek like best? Have a take and make a statement to go along with your article. How hard would it be to say something like, "Based on these important numbers and historical success of RBs with similar metrics, I think Carlos Hyde and Tre Mason (or whomever) are likely to be the two best RBs in this draft." Even if I may disagree with Sigmund Bloom's article on Jordan Matthews, at least he makes his case and goes on record to say what he thinks. Or Matt Waldman or anyone worth their salt. Sorry, /rant.

Peshek has only been doing his charting work for a couple years, so statistical analyses of historical data do not exist.

He does share his impressions on some players (e.g., he just made me very excited about Aaron Donald), but the main value that he provides is in the numbers. He puts in the work to systematically chart a bunch of games, trying to track the stats that are most relevant to evaluating a player (and not just the ones that it's most convenient to collect). It's pretty awesome.

If I could only have 3 pieces of data to judge a RB prospect by before the draft, I'd want their weight (from the combine), their 40 time (from the combine), and their capped yards after contact (from Greg Peshek).

 

[Sabertooth]

Jeremiah: David Fales good third-round option for Jaguars

I still think he'll be the SOD.

Love to see Fales in Green Bay. I think they found out last year that if Rodgers loses time, the season is precarious at best. They can't waste another season by ignoring the QB depth. Flynn is Flynn. Tolzien is Tolzien. Neither is good enough to ever start for anyone long term. They need to get some depth there.

 

[Whitney26]

I'm a full-blown amateur but I started doing some WR research for the 2014 class. The numbers are certainly going to change as new data comes in so this is preliminary. The first thing I wanted to do was see how the 2014 WRs match up against guys in other years. FWIW, I currently have the combine or pro day data for 1,337 WR's dating back to 1999. The first thing I did was a simple sort. Basically, I included arm length into an explosion based formula (broad jump and vertical). For outside receivers, explosion and long arms definitely help. It's labeled rPwr. In order to make the list, it required a score > 1.60 and a production ratio (PR) greater than 50.0. The production ratio is simply the % of a players yards and TD's he had for his team in his final season. I was half-### impressed at the results even though it spit out several busts. Here are the results:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AotIVo4gpWF8dFZBTDhmM01WeU9CMzliOEZMNVByS1E&gid=51

If you don't want to follow the link, the 2014 WR's that met the criteria are:

Kelvin Benjamin

Davante Adams

Mike Evans

Odell Beckham

Eric Thomas

Jeff Janis

Allen Robinson

Donte Moncrief

Bruce Ellington

I had to estimate Mike Evans broad jump since he didn't do it yet. I estimated it at 10'4"

I'm working on several other little projects, and I'll include them when I'm finished.

 

[BigTex]

Brooks: Marqise Lee rivals Sammy Watkins as draft's top WR

I had no idea they had similar numbers, great article and thanks for posting.

 

[BigTex]

I'm a full-blown amateur but I started doing some WR research for the 2014 class. The numbers are certainly going to change as new data comes in so this is preliminary. The first thing I wanted to do was see how the 2014 WRs match up against guys in other years. FWIW, I currently have the combine or pro day data for 1,337 WR's dating back to 1999. The first thing I did was a simple sort. Basically, I included arm length into an explosion based formula (broad jump and vertical). For outside receivers, explosion and long arms definitely help. It's labeled rPwr. In order to make the list, it required a score > 1.60 and a production ratio (PR) greater than 50.0. The production ratio is simply the % of a players yards and TD's he had for his team in his final season. I was half-### impressed at the results even though it spit out several busts. Here are the results:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AotIVo4gpWF8dFZBTDhmM01WeU9CMzliOEZMNVByS1E&gid=51

If you don't want to follow the link, the 2014 WR's that met the criteria are:

Kelvin Benjamin

Davante Adams

Mike Evans

Odell Beckham

Eric Thomas

Jeff Janis

Allen Robinson

Donte Moncrief

Bruce Ellington

I had to estimate Mike Evans broad jump since he didn't do it yet. I estimated it at 10'4"

I'm working on several other little projects, and I'll include them when I'm finished.

How did you estimate Evan's broad jump? Just curious..................

Tex

 

[Whitney26]

I'm a full-blown amateur but I started doing some WR research for the 2014 class. The numbers are certainly going to change as new data comes in so this is preliminary. The first thing I wanted to do was see how the 2014 WRs match up against guys in other years. FWIW, I currently have the combine or pro day data for 1,337 WR's dating back to 1999. The first thing I did was a simple sort. Basically, I included arm length into an explosion based formula (broad jump and vertical). For outside receivers, explosion and long arms definitely help. It's labeled rPwr. In order to make the list, it required a score > 1.60 and a production ratio (PR) greater than 50.0. The production ratio is simply the % of a players yards and TD's he had for his team in his final season. I was half-### impressed at the results even though it spit out several busts. Here are the results:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AotIVo4gpWF8dFZBTDhmM01WeU9CMzliOEZMNVByS1E&gid=51

If you don't want to follow the link, the 2014 WR's that met the criteria are:

Kelvin Benjamin

Davante Adams

Mike Evans

Odell Beckham

Eric Thomas

Jeff Janis

Allen Robinson

Donte Moncrief

Bruce Ellington

I had to estimate Mike Evans broad jump since he didn't do it yet. I estimated it at 10'4"

I'm working on several other little projects, and I'll include them when I'm finished.

How did you estimate Evan's broad jump? Just curious..................

Tex

From the pro day "last year." Some are very accurate from year to year while others aren't. His were close according to what he did at the combine. He'll have to jump at least 8' 5/8" later this month to stay on the list. I'd be surprised if he can't hit that number.

 

[Faust]

2014 Pro Days: Reilly, Murphy stand out at Utah workout

 

[Faust]

Big Board: Bortles-Bridgewater closer than ever after pro days


by Rob Rang | NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst

March 19, 2014 8:29 PM ET

A tight race to be the first quarterback selected in the 2014 NFL Draft might have grown even closer with Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater and Central Florida's Blake Bortles throwing for scouts this week at their respective pro days.

The normally accurate Bridgewater struggled on March 17 and while Bortles was far from perfect two days later, he did show improvement during his pro day from the last time scouts saw him throw at the Scouting Combine in February.

While pro day workouts are notable, it's also important to keep them in perspective. I graded each prospect as a top 10 pick before their workouts and nothing transpired in their scripted throwing sessions to change my opinion.

My Big Board is not a mock draft, and does not factor in team needs. It is simply a ranking of the best draft-eligible prospects in the country.

* Denotes Underclassmen

1. DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina (6-5, 266, 4.53)* -- There is no question Clowney failed to live up to expectations in 2013 from a statistical standpoint, but as he demonstrated in Indianapolis, the South Carolina star possesses a once-in-a-generation combination of size and explosiveness. Whether at defensive end or outside linebacker in a 3-4 alignment, he'll make an immediate impact in the NFL -- precisely why he has been my top-rated prospect since last spring.

2. OT Greg Robinson, Auburn (6-5, 332, 4.92)* -- Physical and tenacious, Robinson is a grizzly bear in the running game, mauling opponents with an exciting blend of size, strength and athleticism. Auburn's reliance on the running game, however, provided Robinson few opportunities in pass protection. With some polish, he could prove an Orlando Pace-like presence in the NFL.

3. OLB Khalil Mack, Buffalo (6-3, 251, 4.65) -- With an FBS-record 16 career forced fumbles and record-tying 75 career tackles for loss, Mack's statistics jump off the page. Against the most gifted opponents he faced last year (Ohio State, Baylor, Connecticut), it was his game that jumped off the screen. He shaved more than a tenth of a second off his 40-yard dash time during his pro day, demonstrating the athleticism to intrigue scouts from 3-4 and 4-3 teams alike. That versatility will almost certainly land him a spot in the top six. As I've been reporting since January, some even view him as a dark horse candidate for the Texans at No. 1 overall.

4. OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M (6-5, 308, 5.07) -- The son of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, Jake proves the cliché true -- the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. He played well at left tackle last season after starring at right tackle for three years, and like his father, projects well to any position along the offensive line. While perhaps not an elite athlete, Matthews is a terrific football player, demonstrating impressive technique, strength and consistency.

5. WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson (6-1, 211, 4.43)* -- Watkins lacks the elite size that helped A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson earn top six selections since 2007, but he does possess virtually everything else -- including instant acceleration, impressive body control and the natural hands to pluck the ball outside of his frame. Watkins could go as high as No. 2 to the St. Louis Rams.

6. QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville (6-2, 214, 4.67)* -- There is no sense in sugarcoating it, Bridgewater was disappointing during his March 17 pro day, showing less zip and accuracy than in any game I've seen over his three seasons as a starter for the Cardinals. Rather than sling the ball with confidence, he threw tentatively, pushing the ball toward targets and forcing them to adjust too often. A case of nerves with an estimated 100 scouts in attendance isn't enough to drop him from my top spot among quarterbacks, especially given that Bridgewater previously impressed with his poise and accuracy during big games. Due to his success in a pro-style scheme which asked him to come to the line of scrimmage with multiple plays and pick the correct one based on the defense, I believe Bridgewater to be the most pro-ready quarterback of the class.

7. OLB Anthony Barr, UCLA (6-5, 255, 4.66) -- Barr's emergence as one of the nation's elite NFL prospects after languishing as a running back early in his career has been well documented. Barr exploded in 2012 in his first season on the defensive side of the ball and backed it up with another spectacular campaign in 2013, including 65 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 10 sacks and five forced fumbles, earning him the Lott IMPACT Trophy. His burst and bend around the corner make him an immediate threat as 3-4 rush linebacker. He shaved nearly a quarter second off his combine 40-yard dash time at UCLA's pro day, clocking in at 4.44 seconds and improved his numbers in the bench press from 14 to 19.

8. QB Blake Bortles, Central Florida* (6-5, 232, 4.93) -- A prototypically-built pocket passer with good awareness, athleticism and arm talent, Bortles looks the part of an NFL star quarterback. He also played well against top talent (including South Carolina, Penn State and Baylor) and impressed me with his willingness to compete at the combine. He was good -- not great -- during his workout in Indianapolis and his March 19 pro day, demonstrating plenty of velocity but inconsistent accuracy, especially on the deep ball. Bortles did show improved footwork in his pro day, evidence that he could be just scratching the surface of his potential.

9. CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State (5-11, 199, 4.52) -- Quick feet, loose hips and a fluid turning motion make Dennard a classic cover corner capable of shutting down half the field. Dennard allowed only three completions in 31 passes of 15-plus yards targeted against him last season, and was recognized with the Thorpe Award as the nation's elite defensive back. A solid workout in Indianapolis eased concerns about his straight-line speed. Critics of his overall athleticism were rebuked with Dennard posting an 11-foot, 2-inch broad jump -- which would have tied Baylor running Lache Seastrunk for the longest recorded from any player tested at the 2014 combine.

10. DE Kony Ealy, Missouri (6-4, 273, 4.92)* -- While teammate Michael Sam garnered more hype, scouts are increasingly intrigued by Ealy due to his impressive combination of size and athleticism. He led all defensive linemen with a 6.83-second time in the 3-cone drill, a test designed to show change-of-direction ability. A highly versatile defender with experience inside and outside for the Tigers, Ealy projects nicely to both the 4-3 and 3-4 alignments. The first-team All-SEC pick is just beginning to realize his potential.

11. CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State (6-0, 202, 4.37) -- With the NFL increasingly favoring offenses, the value of playmakers on either side of the ball has never been higher. Gilbert led the Big 12 with seven interceptions in 2013 and returned six kickoffs for touchdowns over his career. There are other defensive backs in this class who offer a more well-rounded game, but in terms of size, agility and speed, no cornerback offers a more intriguing skill-set than the Cowboys star.

12. OLB C.J. Mosley, Alabama (6-2, 234, 4.65) -- While a bit undersized, Mosley might be the best pound-for-pound player in the country. Athletic and instinctive, he is a true three-down linebacker capable of making plays against the run and pass. Mosley lacks the bulk scouts want in a pass rusher, but his awareness in coverage is special. While the tape is phenomenal, Mosley has undergone multiple surgeries (knee, shoulder) over his career and could be the latest Alabama player to receive medical red flags from some evaluators.

13. WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M (6-5, 231, 4.53)* -- In dominating SEC competition the past two seasons, Evans has earned comparisons to Tampa Bay Bucs star Vincent Jackson, exhibiting a shocking combination of size, strength and deceptive speed. He is a nightmare to defend in jump-ball situations, a trait teams are finding increasingly valuable with the size of cornerbacks growing throughout the NFL. An impressive workout at the combine confirmed his unique athleticism and has Evans' stock climbing.

14. OL Zack Martin, Notre Dame (6-4, 308, 5.22) -- The vast majority of Martin's school record 52 career starts came at left tackle but his square-ish frame and 32 1/4-inch arms will earn him a projection inside to guard for many. Regardless of where he lines up, Martin plays with the controlled aggression I love along the offensive line, latching on and controlling opponents with excellent strength. Martin was the best player on the field in Mobile.

15. DT Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh (6-1, 285, 4.68) -- Given the way he dominated competition in the ACC and at the Senior Bowl and combine, no player has enjoyed a steadier rise up draft boards this year than Donald. His size likely limits him to a three-technique role in the 4-3 alignment but given the NFL's increasing reliance on the pass, he is entering the league at the perfect time to star in just this capacity.

16. OLB Ryan Shazier, Ohio State (6-1, 237, 4.58)* -- Shazier may lack elite size but his instincts, speed and bone-jarring hits make him a fearful defender offenses must account for on every snap. Statistics don't always tell the story, but they do with Shazier, whose 143 tackles, including an eye-popping 22.5 tackles for loss, not only led the Big Ten last season, they combined to rank among the best seasons from any Buckeye defender over the past quarter century. Shazier's unique explosiveness also came through in tests. His 42-inch vertical jump led all participants at the 2014 combine and his 10-foot, 10-inch broad jump ranked fourth. Shazier was also unofficially clocked at a staggering 4.36 seconds in the 40-yard dash at his pro day March 7.

17. OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan (6-7, 309, 4.87) -- The perception among many in the media is that Lewan's stock has fluctuated over the past two seasons, but among scouts he remains one of the more polished linemen in the draft. There is some debate as to whether Lewan possesses the balance to remain at left tackle against NFL speed rushers as he's faster than he is fluid in his kick-slide -- but his length, power and nastiness make him an easy projection to the NFL.

18. QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M (6-0, 207, 4.68)* -- Manziel's vision, elusiveness and accuracy while on the move make him a magician in the improvisational game. Red flags were raised with mediocre performances against LSU and Missouri to end the regular season, however, as each team was able to contain his backyard-style of play by penning him in the pocket. Unable to create throwing lanes with his legs, Manziel struggled, raising concerns about his anticipation and accuracy in a muddied pocket. Manziel could have alleviated some of their concerns by throwing well at the combine, but skipped the passing drills to focus on his March 27 pro day. However, I was impressed with his composure at the podium in Indianapolis.

19. DT Timmy Jernigan, Florida State (6-2, 299, 5.06)* -- Jernigan played a critical role in the Seminoles' run to the BCS title, showing a unique burst to penetrate gaps as well as the leverage and strength to hold up against the run. He possesses a powerful frame that makes him well-suited to handling interior duties in the 4-3 or 3-4 alignment and has exciting upside.

20. WR Marqise Lee, Southern Cal (6-0, 192, 4.52)* -- A nagging left knee injury hampered Lee for much of the 2013 season, robbing the 2012 Biletnikoff Award winner of his trademark elusiveness and acceleration. Finally healthy in the Las Vegas Bowl against Fresno State, Lee showed off his playmaking ability, hauling in seven passes for 118 yards and two scores. Lee didn't look as dynamic during the combine, however, and elected not to try to improve upon his somewhat pedestrian 4.52 second 40-yard dash time at his March 12 pro day, increasing concern about his focus and long-term durability.

21. FS Calvin Pryor, Louisville (5-11, 207, 4.58)* -- Pryor was overshadowed a bit by Bridgewater while with the Cardinals, but his stock will climb once scouts turn their attention to the instinctive and hard-hitting defender. He measured in smaller (listed at 6-2, 208 by the Cardinals' official website) and slower than scouts would have liked at the combine but certainly plays big and fast.

22. Louis Nix III (6-2, 331, 5.42)* -- To earn this high of a pick in the draft Nix will have to prove his health after knee surgery cut short his 2013 season. Nix prepared for the combine at EXOS (formerly Athletes' Performance Institute) in Phoenix and his conditioning and confirmed recovery could make him one of the combine's "big" winners. When healthy, he has proven to be the best run-plugger of this class, controlling the middle with his girth, power and surprising athleticism.

23. TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina (6-4, 250, 4.60)* -- Ebron possesses a jaw-dropping combination of size and athleticism that has earned comparisons to 49ers star Vernon Davis. Like Davis, however, Ebron struggles with consistency, relying too much on his athleticism rather than dedicating himself to learning the finer techniques of the position.

24. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State (5-10, 189, 4.33) -- Cooks has quite enjoyed the past six months, first winning the Biletnikoff as the nation's top receiver and then $100,000 at the combine from adidas for running the fastest 40-yard dash time for anyone wearing a pair of the company's cleats. The real winner, however, could be the NFL team that takes the dynamic athlete in the first round.

25. FS Hasean Clinton-Dix, Alabama* (6-1, 208, 4.58)* -- While Pryor ranks as my top all-around player at the position, Clinton-Dix possesses the fluidity, instincts and ball-skills (seven interceptions in 19 career starts) to earn the title of the draft's best coverage safety. Clinton-Dix isn't without red-flags, however. He flashes rather than dominates and wasn't as athletic during combine drills as expected. It is also worth noting how few of Alabama's highly-regarded defensive backs have lived up to their draft status since leaving Nick Saban's tutelage.

26. DL Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame (6-5, 304, 4.92)* -- Tuitt began his junior campaign out of shape (after missing spring due to hernia surgery) and struggled with consistency all season. He also was unable to work out at the combine after being diagnosed with a Jones fracture in his foot. He is highly athletic and possesses the frame to star as either a 4-3 defensive tackle or 3-4 defensive end, however, earning comparisons to Richard Seymour from some scouts.

27. DE/OLB Dee Ford, Auburn (6-2, 252, 4.67) -- Ford dominated the Senior Bowl with his burst off the edge and surprising power. He has also shown intriguing agility when asked to drop into coverage, making him a candidate for virtually every team in the NFL. Medical red flags were raised at the combine due to an old back injury, but he worked out quite well at his March 4 pro day. If teams are satisfied with his medical, Ford is a cinch for the first round.

28. OG Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA (6-4, 307, 5.04)* -- Despite playing out of position at left tackle due to injuries to teammates, Su'a-Filo was voted the top offensive lineman in the Pac-12 by those who'd know -- the conference's defensive linemen. Quick, powerful and balanced, he's equally effective driving defenders off the ball in the running game or settling in pass protection.

29. CB Jason Verrett, TCU (5-09, 189, 4.38) -- Verrett lacks the size so en vogue in today's NFL, but agility and ball-skills never go out of style for cornerbacks. While light, Verrett is scrappy and tenacious, making him an ideal nickel corner with the tackling ability to threaten on an occasional blitz. He wowed at the combine with his speed but also raised concerns, announcing that he will undergo surgery after his pro day to repair a torn labrum.

30. WR Odell Beckham, LSU (5-11, 198, 4.43)* -- Given the competition he faced in the SEC, it is a testament to Beckham's athleticism that he stood out as a big-play threat throughout his career. It is the overall improved concentration and consistency he demonstrated in his first season in Cam Cameron's pro-style offense, however, that makes him such an easy projection to the NFL.

31. QB Derek Carr, Fresno State (6-2, 214, 4.69) -- Carr's staggering production (68.2 completion percentage, 50 TDs, 8 INTs) was certainly inflated by head coach Tim DeRuyter's QB-friendly spread attack and a legitimately talented receiving corps, but any questions about his talent were put to rest with a stellar Senior Bowl week. For all of the focus on the pro days of Bridgewater and Bortles, don't be surprised when Carr generates the most excitement this week with his workout March 20. There is no doubt that he's the most gifted thrower in this year's draft class but some question his poise, in part due to the fact that he was 0-2 in bowl games with the Bulldogs.

32. OLB Kyle Van Noy, BYU (6-3, 243, 4.71) -- Van Noy may not be the most physical linebacker in the draft, but he might just be the most efficient. As he demonstrated throughout a spectacular career in Provo and again at the Senior Bowl, he's just as slippery and savvy in attacking the line of scrimmage as he is in dropping back into coverage.

Just missed the cut:

DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota

FS Jimmie Ward, Northern Illinois

QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois

TE Troy Niklas, Notre Dame*

DE Scott Crichton, Oregon State*

CB Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech

OT Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama*

CB Bradley Roby, Ohio State*

DE/OLB Trent Murphy, Stanford

DT DaQuan Jones, Penn State

WR Donte Moncrief, Mississippi*

OT Morgan Moses, Virginia

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington*

CB Marcus Roberson, Florida*

DT Will Sutton, Arizona State

WR Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State*

OC Weston Richburg, Colorado State

WR Davante Adams, Fresno State*

Rob Rang (@RobRang) is a senior analyst for NFLDraftScout.com.

 

[Faust]

Derek Carr's pro day a go despite hospitalization

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Virginia Tech led "AQ" schools with 39 drops by WRs, TEs and RBs in 2013, according to ESPN.
While Logan Thomas made his own set of mistakes, he certainly was not helped by his receiver play. The Virginia Tech passer has generated a bit of a cult following from some in the draft community, with many questioning why a team should select a limited passer rather than one with a very high ceiling. Thomas just has not shown much improvement in the last two seasons, however.

Source: Kevin Weidl on Twitter

CBS Sports' Bruce Feldman noted interest in Chip Kelly and Jim Harbaugh's attendance at Virginia Tech's pro day to scout Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas.
These are two coaches that Thomas should be dying to play for. Harbaugh, apparently not content with the Blaine Gabbert trade alone, could be looking for a long-term developmental prospect; he's made no secret of his interest in the QBs of the 2014 class while he's made the scouting rounds. If Thomas ever maximized his ability, he'd be downright scary as Kelly's field general in the Eagles' breakneck offense. Because Philadelphia employs Nick Foles and Matt Barkley, Thomas would be assured of the two or three years' development time he'll require.

Source: Bruce Feldman on Twitter

 

[lsutigers]

Former Michigan offensive lineman and first-round NFL draft prospect Taylor Lewan has been charged with one count of aggravated assault and two counts of assault or assault and battery stemming from an incident on Dec. 1, 2013, according to court records. Lewan, who is projected as the No. 2 offensive tackle by ESPN's Scouts Inc. in May's NFL draft, is scheduled to be arraigned on April 8 at 9 a.m. in the 15th District Court in Ann Arbor, Mich.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/id/10639453/nfl-draft-prospect-taylor-lewan-facing-3-charges

Interesting timing for an incident in December. #OSUsucks

 

[Soulfly3]

Former Michigan offensive lineman and first-round NFL draft prospect Taylor Lewan has been charged with one count of aggravated assault and two counts of assault or assault and battery stemming from an incident on Dec. 1, 2013, according to court records. Lewan, who is projected as the No. 2 offensive tackle by ESPN's Scouts Inc. in May's NFL draft, is scheduled to be arraigned on April 8 at 9 a.m. in the 15th District Court in Ann Arbor, Mich.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/id/10639453/nfl-draft-prospect-taylor-lewan-facing-3-charges

Interesting timing for an incident in December. #OSUsucks

Sounds NFL ready

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

LSU RB Jeremy Hill possesses "deceptive quickness and agility for a 230-pound back," according to NFL Films' Greg Cosell.
Having declared for the draft after his redshirt sophomore season, Hill is one of the draft's youngest RBs. "I thought he was excellent at getting through small cracks at the point of attack, and that is an absolutely necessary trait in the NFL," Cosell said. The analyst also likes that Hill mostly ran out of NFL formations with the Tigers. The 6-foot-2, 235-pound Hill has garnered comparisons to LaGarrette Blount.

Source: Stationcaster

Ohio State RB Carlos Hyde compares to Le'Veon Bell and "a more laterally explosive" Eddie Lacy, according to NFL Films' Greg Cosell.
The analyst most likes the comparison to Bell because the two big backs share light feet. "Bell is a really good receiver," Cosell said. "Hyde does have some receiving ability but I don't think he's quite as multidimensional as Bell." Hyde, the consensus No. 1 RB in the class, has also been compared to Ryan Mathews, Frank Gore and Zac Stacy.

Source: Stationcaster

Pittsburgh QB Tom Savage "should be getting much more attention," believes ESPN's Louis Riddick.
Riddick thinks the circumstances surrounding Savage -- "background, play history, character, scheme, talent played with" -- have contributed to his lack of hype. "He makes some serious big-time throws," Riddick tweeted. "No QB in this draft class making the 18-22 yard opposite 'college' hash corner and comeback throws like Savage can. ... And doing it all within the structure of an NFL-style passing game that he started in just one season." The 6-foot-4, 228-pound quarterback with intriguing tools could be a late-round riser. Savage has an impressive blend of size and arm strength, but needs to improve his reaction to pressure and throwing accuracy.

Source: Louis Riddick on Twitter

NFL Films' Greg Cosell says Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk is his favorite "supplemental" back in this draft.
While not a franchise back capable of playing all three downs, the Bears' star has "short area burst, he's quick through the hole, he's got some explosive traits to him, he can get to the perimeter, he can bounce, he's a shifty back," according to Cosell. The NFL team that selects Seastrunk will likely determine how his career plays out. He will fit like a glove in a spread system that uses its backs as receivers.

Source: Stationcaster

NFL Films' Greg Cosell says Auburn's Tre Mason is the running back that he's most intrigued with in the 2014 RB class.
"I think he can be a foundation back in the NFL," Cosell said. The analyst isn't alone in his admiration, as NFL.com's Gil Brandt ranked Mason as the draft's best running back back in January. The 5-foot-9, 205-pound back finished last season with 1,816 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns and was a Heisman finalist. Mason, who bolted school after his junior campaign, received a third-round grade from the NFL's advisory board. We think that's about right.

Source: Stationcaster

 

[Milkman]

I'm glad someone else said that because watching Hyde i thought he was clearly more explosive than Lacy. I think Lacy runs a little meaner though.

 

[lod01]

Keith Wenning is what we think David Fales is.

I'd like to see Wenning get a real chance to compete.

 

[Faust]

12 exciting 2014 NFL draft prospects hidden behind bigger names

 

[Bamac]

Former Michigan offensive lineman and first-round NFL draft prospect Taylor Lewan has been charged with one count of aggravated assault and two counts of assault or assault and battery stemming from an incident on Dec. 1, 2013, according to court records. Lewan, who is projected as the No. 2 offensive tackle by ESPN's Scouts Inc. in May's NFL draft, is scheduled to be arraigned on April 8 at 9 a.m. in the 15th District Court in Ann Arbor, Mich.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/id/10639453/nfl-draft-prospect-taylor-lewan-facing-3-charges

Interesting timing for an incident in December. #OSUsucks

Sounds NFL ready

Don't forget how he threatened to rape his teammate's rape victim if she reported it. With the 17th pick in the 2014 NFL draft, the Baltimore Ravens select ...

 

[Hankmoody]

Don't forget how he threatened to rape his teammate's rape victim if she reported it.With the 17th pick in the 2014 NFL draft, the Baltimore Ravens select ...

Wow, that's a nasty story.

 

[Faust]

2014 Pro Day: Despite nausea, Derek Carr 'didn't have a bad throw' Derek Carr has ‘an outstanding workout’ at pro day Derek Carr: I'll surprise people in first round of NFL draft

 

[voiceofunreason]

Former Michigan offensive lineman and first-round NFL draft prospect Taylor Lewan has been charged with one count of aggravated assault and two counts of assault or assault and battery stemming from an incident on Dec. 1, 2013, according to court records. Lewan, who is projected as the No. 2 offensive tackle by ESPN's Scouts Inc. in May's NFL draft, is scheduled to be arraigned on April 8 at 9 a.m. in the 15th District Court in Ann Arbor, Mich.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/id/10639453/nfl-draft-prospect-taylor-lewan-facing-3-charges

Interesting timing for an incident in December. #OSUsucks

Sounds NFL ready

Don't forget how he threatened to rape his teammate's rape victim if she reported it.With the 17th pick in the 2014 NFL draft, the Baltimore Ravens select ...

Dolphins got their new man.

 

[Donnybrook]

2014 Pro Day: Despite nausea, Derek Carr 'didn't have a bad throw'

Rob Rang: "I project Carr to be selected by Spielman and the Vikings with the No. 8 overall selection in my latest mock draft. Given how well he threw Thursday, I'm not sure he'll be available to them."

Rob Rang is seriously bad at QB evaluations. Last year he was totally in love with Matt Barkley and this year it is Carr.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

The Jets are showing "heavy interest" in Clemson WR Martavis Bryant, according to draft insider Tony Pauline.
This would be an interesting situation, since Jets fans are still trying to get over Stephen Hill's lack of development. Bryant is not as raw as Hill was, but he's more of a vertical target than anything right now. The Clemson product is an outstanding athlete, although projection must heavily be factored into his evaluation.

Source: Tony Pauline on Twitter

Scouts Inc.'s Todd McShay believes UCF QB Blake Bortles "should be more durable" than Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater due to their build.
"When you factor in that he has a thicker build... and the fact that Bortles has checked every box in terms of his intangibles, character, leadership ability and mental makeup (not that Bridgewater hasn’t, just pointing it out as another positive for Bortles), it turns things in favor of him as the top QB," McShay writes. Bortles is 6-foot-5, 232 pounds versus 6-2, 208 pounds for Bridgewater. This might be a bit of a slippery slope, since Bridgewater does not take unnecessary hits. Still, there will be frame questions throughout the draft process regarding Bridgewater and his evaluation.

Source: ESPN

Scout Inc.'s Kevin Weidl cautions teams from the AFC East, AFC North and NFC North from drafting Georgia QB Aaron Murray.
The thinking is that, because Murray's lackluster size will give him trouble in collapsing pockets and his noodle won't compensate, he shouldn't regularly be playing in inclement weather. "Murray’s best chance at developing and maximizing his skill set will come if he is able to team up with a creative offensive mind, like a Sean Payton in New Orleans, who relies on quick decision-making and getting the ball out in a timely manner," wrote Weidl. Murray, progressing well from ACL surgery in November, is hopeful he will be able to work out at Georgia’s pro day on April 16.

Source: ESPN Insider

Scout Inc.'s Kevin Weidl calls Pittsburgh QB Tom Savage "one of the most underrated quarterbacks in this class."
Fans late to the Savage party can be forgiven for losing track of him, as the former elite prep prospect bounced from Rutgers to Arizona (where he was an atrocious fit in Rich Rodriguez's spread zone-read offense) to Pitt. The 6-foot-4, 228-pound quarterback "is an effortless thrower of the football" and will be aided in his transition to the pros by his familiarity to a pro-style system, according to the analyst. "Savage is far from a finished product. However, he displays a physical skill set that translates well to the next level. In addition, he is built for the inclement weather, and teams such as the Jets, Bears, Bills, Packers and Bengals looking to add a developmental backup to their roster could find strong value for Savage early in the Day 3 range," Weidl wrote.

Source: ESPN Insider

Fresno State WR Davante Adams and TE Marcel Jensen will work out for the Colts on Thursday.
If nothing else, Indy heads into the draft looking to bolster the back end of its receiving depth chart. They could get bolder and grab Andrew Luck a shiny new toy in the first round, however. Besides Adams, Marqise Lee (USC), Kelvin Benjamin (Florida St.), Odell Beckham Jr. (LSU), Brandin Cooks (Oregon St.) and Jarvis Landry (LSU) would be potential options.

Source: Tony Pauline on Twitter

 

[Milkman]

Indy doesn't have a first round pick this year.

 

[Faust]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 3m

Starting to get buzz RT @Gil_Brandt: Arm, size reminds me some of Aikman. RT @LRiddickESPN: @Gil_Brandt I applaud u. Tom Savage is for real

 

[Faust]

Week 3 Pro Days takeaways: Michael Sam shows improvement

 

[Faust]

ICYMI: What we learned about draft prospects this week

 

[Faust]

Tom Savage's size, strong arm make him intriguing prospect

 

[Faust]

Charles Sims of West Virginia might surprise people in NFL

 

[Faust]

Video Link:

How do the Carr brothers compare?

00:54 – Charley Casserly, who drafted David Carr in 2002, gives the similarities and differences between brothers David and Derek Carr.

 

[Sabertooth]

Who else was he so wrong on?

 

[The Fantasy Chef]

Should Ebron be drafted at about the 1.07 in dynasty drafts just trying to see where some are ranking him I'm trying to put together my rankings. He could be one of the few that contribute to fantasy dynasty teams right way. Any discussion on this?

 

[football fan]

Should Ebron be drafted at about the 1.07 in dynasty drafts just trying to see where some are ranking him I'm trying to put together my rankings. He could be one of the few that contribute to fantasy dynasty teams right way. Any discussion on this?

I was wondering the same thing, but I'm more curious about other opinions and rankings in a PPR with TE enhanced scoring rules.

 

[bengalbuck]

Former Michigan offensive lineman and first-round NFL draft prospect Taylor Lewan has been charged with one count of aggravated assault and two counts of assault or assault and battery stemming from an incident on Dec. 1, 2013, according to court records. Lewan, who is projected as the No. 2 offensive tackle by ESPN's Scouts Inc. in May's NFL draft, is scheduled to be arraigned on April 8 at 9 a.m. in the 15th District Court in Ann Arbor, Mich.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/id/10639453/nfl-draft-prospect-taylor-lewan-facing-3-charges

Interesting timing for an incident in December. #OSUsucks

The incident took place the night after the OSU-Michigan game. According to eye witness reports he was really drunk and he walked up and punched an OSU fan in front of 100s of witnesses. Not exactly the brightest crayon in the box.

 

[bengalbuck]

Should Ebron be drafted at about the 1.07 in dynasty drafts just trying to see where some are ranking him I'm trying to put together my rankings. He could be one of the few that contribute to fantasy dynasty teams right way. Any discussion on this?

I was wondering the same thing, but I'm more curious about other opinions and rankings in a PPR with TE enhanced scoring rules.

Just my opinion, but TE is even more dependent upon scheme fit than other positions. Does he have a good QB? Does his team pass a lot? Do they keep the TE in to block? Does he have a lot of other good players with whom he will be competing for targets?

I was pretty high on Tyler Eifert's talent last year, but I thought he landed in a tough situation for fantasy. I was a bit down on Zach Ertz in terms of talent, but really like where he landed.

So I'm just waiting to see where these guys end up before trying real hard to try to rank them. If Ebron ends up in St. Louis, Cleveland, Jets, Ravens, Bills, etc. I wouldn't be too excited. Put him in Carolina, New England, San Diego, Giants, Steelers, Packers or a few other spots, I would be much more excited about his dynasty prospects.

 

[bengalbuck]

Should Ebron be drafted at about the 1.07 in dynasty drafts just trying to see where some are ranking him I'm trying to put together my rankings. He could be one of the few that contribute to fantasy dynasty teams right way. Any discussion on this?

I was wondering the same thing, but I'm more curious about other opinions and rankings in a PPR with TE enhanced scoring rules.

Also, with 1.5 TE PPR, I wouldn't give the TEs too much of a bump. If you figure 14 or 15 PPG is what you are hoping for out of your flex, there were only about 5 or 6 TEs who scored that much. So it doesn't make TE a real attractive flex option unless you have 2 top 5 TEs. In terms of your TE vs. your opponents TE, the extra 0.5 per reception compared to normal scoring doesn't really have much of an impact.

So if you have him 1.12 in normal PPR rankings, maybe you bump him up a little to 1.09 or something. But I wouldn't go too nuts with bumping TEs way up in reaction to the 1.5 PPR.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Should Ebron be drafted at about the 1.07 in dynasty drafts just trying to see where some are ranking him I'm trying to put together my rankings. He could be one of the few that contribute to fantasy dynasty teams right way. Any discussion on this?

I was wondering the same thing, but I'm more curious about other opinions and rankings in a PPR with TE enhanced scoring rules.

Also, with 1.5 TE PPR, I wouldn't give the TEs too much of a bump. If you figure 14 or 15 PPG is what you are hoping for out of your flex, there were only about 5 or 6 TEs who scored that much. So it doesn't make TE a real attractive flex option unless you have 2 top 5 TEs. In terms of your TE vs. your opponents TE, the extra 0.5 per reception compared to normal scoring doesn't really have much of an impact.

So if you have him 1.12 in normal PPR rankings, maybe you bump him up a little to 1.09 or something. But I wouldn't go too nuts with bumping TEs way up in reaction to the 1.5 PPR.

11 TEs scored 14+ppg last year in 1.5ppr. And another six scored 12-14ppg.

 

[Faust]

Ex-NFL scout: Eric Ebron could be better than Jimmy Graham

 

[EBF]

Any time you're comparing a guy to one of the all-time great talents at his position, it's going to be hard for him to live up to that. I like Ebron, but I don't see that ceiling. He has fluid route running and movement like a WR, but he's not quite the height/weight/speed athlete that Graham is. I think he's an instant top 10 guy at his position in dynasty value, which I can't say about anyone else in this draft. He's a safe pick, but you have to question the upside in non TE premium leagues.

I'd say his value is pretty comparable to what Eifert's was a year ago. I'd rank those guys pretty close together as NFL/FF prospects.

 

[Faust]

Derek Carr puts himself into first round at pro day