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[Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects (1 Viewer)

cloppbeast said:
Xue said:
I'm just calling you out on perpetuating myths. It's not that disagree with you. The tape does.

He's a long strider because he has long legs and creates a lot of pushoff. You prefer short striders who cover less ground with each step?

Melvin Gordon being labeled a "long strider" is false. His strides are only long when he's in the open field or is close to top speed. When he is accelerating behind the line of scrimmage, his strides aren't any longer than other RBs.

Calling him as straight line runner is also false. He's not on the level of a LeSean McCoy or Matt Forte when it comes to cuts, but he's a lot better than a Darren McFadden. Can you blame a RB for running straight if the hole is in front of him most of the time?
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The infallible Xue corrects our mistakes. We appreciate it.

Here I thought this whole evaluation business was subjective.
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When you use words like "long" it constitutes a measurement. Measurements are not subjective. If you think he won't be a good RB that's fine. But to use objective reasons that are false to support your view doesn't make any sense.

You said he's a long strider and is "thin". There's objective evidence to suggest otherwise. I dispelled the notion that Gordon is thin. Then you say it's about his running style. I will have a video shortly of Gordon being more than a straightline runner and having great pad level.

Does being a "straightline runner" make you less successful? If I had to compare Gordon's style to someone, It would be DeMarco Murray. Who basically had the same evaluation in regards to his cutting. He's done pretty well in the NFL as a runner if you ask me. Not every successful RB has to be short and stocky like a Ray Rice or have the same type of cutting ability. And not every successful RB has Gordon's strength and speed.

 
Murray is a violent runner that seeks contact, it's why he can't stay on the field.

I don't see that with Gordon at all.

 
Xue said:
When you use words like "long" it constitutes a measurement. Measurements are not subjective. If you think he won't be a good RB that's fine. But to use objective reasons that are false to support your view doesn't make any sense.

You said he's a long strider and is "thin". There's objective evidence to suggest otherwise. I dispelled the notion that Gordon is thin. Then you say it's about his running style. I will have a video shortly of Gordon being more than a straightline runner and having great pad level.

Does being a "straightline runner" make you less successful? If I had to compare Gordon's style to someone, It would be DeMarco Murray. Who basically had the same evaluation in regards to his cutting. He's done pretty well in the NFL as a runner if you ask me. Not every successful RB has to be short and stocky like a Ray Rice or have the same type of cutting ability. And not every successful RB has Gordon's strength and speed.
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On the spectrum of NFL running backs, Gordon is thin, you need only to compare his BMI to the rest of the NFL. And while length is a unit of measurement, you didn't get out your yard stick to measure Gordon's strides, because nobody does that. Whether or not a player is a 'long strider' is subjective. You have dispelled these things only in your imagination.

Straight line running does not bode well for ball carriers. Preferably, a running back will keep his pads parallel to the line of scrimmage. Some guys of similar style to Gordon have succeeded in the NFL, but it's despite, not because of, their straight-linish style.

I'm not even going to sit here and say Gordon won't do well professionally. We have another whole year to see him in action, and I anxiously await watching him carry a large percentage of Wisconsin's rushing offense. I believe this year will reveal a lot about his prospects.

 
cloppbeast said:
Xue said:
When you use words like "long" it constitutes a measurement. Measurements are not subjective. If you think he won't be a good RB that's fine. But to use objective reasons that are false to support your view doesn't make any sense.

You said he's a long strider and is "thin". There's objective evidence to suggest otherwise. I dispelled the notion that Gordon is thin. Then you say it's about his running style. I will have a video shortly of Gordon being more than a straightline runner and having great pad level.

Does being a "straightline runner" make you less successful? If I had to compare Gordon's style to someone, It would be DeMarco Murray. Who basically had the same evaluation in regards to his cutting. He's done pretty well in the NFL as a runner if you ask me. Not every successful RB has to be short and stocky like a Ray Rice or have the same type of cutting ability. And not every successful RB has Gordon's strength and speed.
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On the spectrum of NFL running backs, Gordon is thin, you need only to compare his BMI to the rest of the NFL. And while length is a unit of measurement, you didn't get out your yard stick to measure Gordon's strides, because nobody does that. Whether or not a player is a 'long strider' is subjective. You have dispelled these things only in your imagination.

Straight line running does not bode well for ball carriers. Preferably, a running back will keep his pads parallel to the line of scrimmage. Some guys of similar style to Gordon have succeeded in the NFL, but it's despite, not because of, their straight-linish style.

I'm not even going to sit here and say Gordon won't do well professionally. We have another whole year to see him in action, and I anxiously await watching him carry a large percentage of Wisconsin's rushing offense. I believe this year will reveal a lot about his prospects.
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On the spectrum of what kind of NFL running backs? The successful ones? Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte? Umm....there are numerous top tier RBs with different body types. Where are all the Ray Rices and Doug Martins?

If I see Gordon NOT being a long strider it's called my imagination, but if you see him as such it's not? Gotcha.

 
Xue said:
Xue said:
cloppbeast said:
I'm checking out Xue, try to follow along next time.
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Look, Melvin Gordon is a straightline runner https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agulVJ7Ahys
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He's definitely a straight line runner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kYylvNFLYg
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I think Gordon is easily the best, so I won't get into the straight line runner debate. However, the thing that stands out, is that most of the runs were inside runs and that is where Gordon is under appreciated. I think most envision the fly sweep with him using his speed to the outside and don't realize how good his overall game is.

 
Nero said:
Xue said:
Xue said:
cloppbeast said:
I'm checking out Xue, try to follow along next time.
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Look, Melvin Gordon is a straightline runner https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agulVJ7Ahys
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He's definitely a straight line runner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kYylvNFLYg
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I think Gordon is easily the best, so I won't get into the straight line runner debate. However, the thing that stands out, is that most of the runs were inside runs and that is where Gordon is under appreciated. I think most envision the fly sweep with him using his speed to the outside and don't realize how good his overall game is.
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Definitely, he shows great patience in traffic and knows how to "get small" and lower his pads.

Straight-line runners are Jackie Battle, Justin Fargas, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Jacobs, Michael Turner, etc.

 
Nero said:
I think Gordon is easily the best. However, the thing that stands out, is that most of the runs were inside runs and that is where Gordon is under appreciated. I think most envision the fly sweep with him using his speed to the outside and don't realize how good his overall game is.
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Do you like Gordon more than Gurley?

 
Ty Montgomery is going to be tough to evaluate. His tape looks good/great but his numbers against good teams looks like doo doo.

He fits the size/speed/BMI of a WR1 in the nfl though. Great blocker. Good route runner. Looks big and explosive. No body catches that i have seen yet. Hmmmmm

 
Milkman said:
Wow I didn't realize he was that big. Going to watch tape now haha.
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He has been something of a man-child since his freshman season when he made some cameos and caught a bomb or two from Luck. A lot can happen during the season, but at the moment I think he's the best draft-eligible WR in the Pac-12. A lot of people would probably put Strong or Agholor up there instead, but I don't see those guys having any special qualities for the next level. Montgomery is never going to be AJ Green when it comes to pure receiving skills. His highlight reels are almost completely devoid of "wow" catches. But he's a first round physical talent with a super hero physique and very good explosiveness.

 
Milkman said:
Ty Montgomery is going to be tough to evaluate. His tape looks good/great but his numbers against good teams looks like doo doo.

He fits the size/speed/BMI of a WR1 in the nfl though. Great blocker. Good route runner. Looks big and explosive. No body catches that i have seen yet. Hmmmmm
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He got shut down because he doesn't have natural WR skills. More of a guy you pepper with short passes right now. His teammate Devon Cajuste is the better pure WR: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9850031

 
Yeah well he's a senior this year so there is no excuses. If he bombs against tough teams and smokes the bad teams I won't be interested.

 
Milkman said:
Ty Montgomery is going to be tough to evaluate. His tape looks good/great but his numbers against good teams looks like doo doo.

He fits the size/speed/BMI of a WR1 in the nfl though. Great blocker. Good route runner. Looks big and explosive. No body catches that i have seen yet. Hmmmmm
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Keep in mind how run-heavy Stanford's offense is and how much Kevin Hogan sucks (those two things are closely related).

Here are three of Montgomery's dud games from last season:

vs. Oregon - 2 catches for 20 yards

vs. USC - 4 catches for 23 yards

vs. Michigan State - 3 catches for 21 yards (he left this game in the 3rd quarter)

It's important to look at those numbers in the context of the entire offense. Here are Hogan's stats from those three games:

vs. Oregon 7/13, 103 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

vs. USC 14/25, 127 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

vs. Michigan State - 10/18, 143 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Hogan sucks and the people touting him as some kind of a top draft prospect are insane. He's like a Jake Locker/Stephen McGee type. Good athlete who looks the part. Incredibly inconsistent passer with very pedestrian innate QB skills. Not even a standout passer at the college level. If he doesn't improve by leaps and bounds soon, he will be irrelevant in the NFL.

When you look at Montgomery's numbers, you have to realize that Stanford attempted just 311 passes last season. That ranked 112th in the nation out of 124 FBS teams. I don't know if people who don't follow the team really realize how conservative they were. They did manage to rank 77th in the country in passing yards. Some of that is due to all their running setting up the big pass plays. Some of it is due to the individual talent of their receivers.

I would say Montgomery's production was excellent in the context. He had 958 receiving yards on a team that attempted 311 passes. For the sake of comparison, Brandin Cooks had 1730 receiving yards on a team that attempted 625 passes. That's more than twice as many passes! If you double Montgomery's stats then you'd get 1900+ yards. Now obviously it doesn't work that way because more passes would decrease the efficiency of each pass, but the point is that his production is deceptive because if you just look at the year end totals without considering the system and the usage then you're going to miss a big part of the equation.

Montgomery is definitely a victim of this. He would be getting loads more hype if he had equivalent performance at a flashier program like Ohio State, Alabama, or FSU. DLF has guys like Strong, Coates, Agholor, and Carroo rated higher than him. He might be well be better than any of them. I don't think he's a perfect player. I've talked about it a lot in the past. He plays a bit stiff and seems to have spotty confidence. He has obvious NFL ability though and his ceiling is becoming something like Pierre Garcon. A quality NFL WR2 with good deep speed and athletic ability.

 
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EBF said:
But Montgomery's a first round physical talent with a super hero physique and very good explosiveness.
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Explosive being one of those terms which gets thrown around a lot without having a precise definition, what exactly do you mean?

 
cloppbeast said:
EBF said:
But Montgomery's a first round physical talent with a super hero physique and very good explosiveness.
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Explosive being one of those terms which gets thrown around a lot without having a precise definition, what exactly do you mean?
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Some guys like Jeremy Hill are soft and doughy by nature. Others like Christine Michael and Jonathan Stewart just naturally carry a lot of "good" weight. He's definitely the latter type. A genetic freak. Those guys always test off the charts in combines. He was a 10.8 100M guy in high school and is reported to have a 40" vertical. Probably gonna do something like 4.45/38"+ vertical/10'5"+ broad jump at something like 6'1" 215-220.

 
EBF said:
Milkman said:
Ty Montgomery is going to be tough to evaluate. His tape looks good/great but his numbers against good teams looks like doo doo.

He fits the size/speed/BMI of a WR1 in the nfl though. Great blocker. Good route runner. Looks big and explosive. No body catches that i have seen yet. Hmmmmm
Click to expand...
Keep in mind how run-heavy Stanford's offense is and how much Kevin Hogan sucks (those two things are closely related).

Here are three of Montgomery's dud games from last season:

vs. Oregon - 2 catches for 20 yards

vs. USC - 4 catches for 23 yards

vs. Michigan State - 3 catches for 21 yards (he left this game in the 3rd quarter)

It's important to look at those numbers in the context of the entire offense. Here are Hogan's stats from those three games:

vs. Oregon 7/13, 103 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

vs. USC 14/25, 127 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

vs. Michigan State - 10/18, 143 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Hogan sucks and the people touting him as some kind of a top draft prospect are insane. He's like a Jake Locker/Stephen McGee type. Good athlete who looks the part. Incredibly inconsistent passer with very pedestrian innate QB skills. Not even a standout passer at the college level. If he doesn't improve by leaps and bounds soon, he will be irrelevant in the NFL.

When you look at Montgomery's numbers, you have to realize that Stanford attempted just 311 passes last season. That ranked 112th in the nation out of 124 FBS teams. I don't know if people who don't follow the team really realize how conservative they were. They did manage to rank 77th in the country in passing yards. Some of that is due to all their running setting up the big pass plays. Some of it is due to the individual talent of their receivers.

I would say Montgomery's production was excellent in the context. He had 958 receiving yards on a team that attempted 311 passes. For the sake of comparison, Brandin Cooks had 1730 receiving yards on a team that attempted 625 passes. That's more than twice as many passes! If you double Montgomery's stats then you'd get 1900+ yards. Now obviously it doesn't work that way because more passes would decrease the efficiency of each pass, but the point is that his production is deceptive because if you just look at the year end totals without considering the system and the usage then you're going to miss a big part of the equation.

Montgomery is definitely a victim of this. He would be getting loads more hype if he had equivalent performance at a flashier program like Ohio State, Alabama, or FSU. DLF has guys like Strong, Coates, Agholor, and Carroo rated higher than him. He might be well be better than any of them. I don't think he's a perfect player. I've talked about it a lot in the past. He plays a bit stiff and seems to have spotty confidence. He has obvious NFL ability though and his ceiling is becoming something like Pierre Garcon. A quality NFL WR2 with good deep speed and athletic ability.
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Yeah I looked into those numbers more because his size caught my eye. 29% of his teams receiving yards and 32% (or 37% I can't read my own writing lmao) of his teams receptions. Where he stands out is in the red zone where he caught nearly half of his teams TD's. I saw some good route running on the limited tape I just watched of him and he looks like a man's man out there laying defenders out on some of his blocks. I did question his quarterback play also. It's def something to look into further this year. He jumps off the screen with how explosive he is. He should dominate this year though he's a senior.

As far as comparing him and Cooks.......Cooks was 19 during this season right? That's huge.

 
I'm developing a major man crush on DeVante Parker... scouts will probably knock his speed a bit but the guy can downright ball. He seems like a Justin Hunter / Alshon Jeffrey cross with some Gordon sprinkled in. That. Good.

IMO

 
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werdnoynek said:
I'm developing a major man crush on DeVante Parker... scouts will probably knock his speed a bit but the guy can downright ball. He seems like a Justin Hunter / Alshon Jeffrey cross with some Gordon sprinkled in. That. Good.

IMO
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Yeah, I like this guy a lot too.
 
Rotoworld:

Devin Funchess - WR - Wolverines

TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline isn't sold on the idea that shifting Michigan junior WR/TE Devin Funchess to receiver full time will help his draft stock.

The 6-foot-5, 230-pound hybrid has lined up at both receiver and tight end positions over the past two seasons. Funchess said recently that he is currently taking 100 percent of his snaps as an outside WR. "I dont know how I feel about the expected move from tight end to wide receiver by Devin Funchess," Pauline wrote. "It will definitely help the Wolverines offense but will it help his draft stock? Funchess has established himself as a dominant pass catcher who makes the difficult reception down the field. His blocking is the question mark and though not terrible, it needs improving. Funchess has top 12 potential if the measurables are in line."

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Aug 7 - 9:28 PM
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Tevin Coleman - RB - Hoosiers

Indiana junior RB Tevin Coleman "comes with a large degree of upside," writes TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.

The 6-foot-1, 205 pound Coleman led Indiana in rushing last year with 958 yards playing in nine games, averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per carry and finishing tied for second nationally with five rushes of at least 50 yards. "I like what I saw from Tevin Coleman on film and feel he comes with a large degree of upside," Pauline wrote. "Id like to see him move involved in the passing game but Coleman has a variety of next level skill." Out of his 12 rushing TDs, three covered at least 64 yards and six went at least 40 yards. Without Cody Latimer, the Hoosiers figure to rely on Coleman's playmaking ability a bit more in 2014. Pauline sees him as a Round 5 selection.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Aug 7 - 7:59 PM
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Nate Sudfeld - QB - Hoosiers

Indiana junior QB Nate Sudfeld "has next level size and arm strength," according to TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline.

Sudfeld seized the undisputed starting gig when Tre Roberson decided to transfer. "Sudfeld has next level size and arm strength but does not play in a pro-style offense and doesnt project to a read option," Pauline wrote. "That said Sudfeld has the tools necessary to play at the next level as a traditional drop back/pocket passer." Sudfeld led the squad with 2,523 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions last year. Pauline grades him as a preseason Round 4 selection.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Aug 7 - 7:31 PM
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Jon Davis - TE - Fighting Illini

Illinois senior TE Jon Davis "flashes much of what the NFL wants in todays tight end," writes TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.

"[Davis is] a big pass catcher who can get down the field and create mismatches," Pauline wrote. "His play is sporadic and Davis needs to pull together a productive season for any chance of being drafted in 2015." Davis, who stands 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, runs a 4.68 forty. We like his athleticism, but need to see improvement on the field in 2014 -- Davis isn't big or strong enough to underachieve again.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Aug 7 - 6:06 PM
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Concept Coop said:
wdcrob said:
Took Keith Marshall late in a couple 2015-only devy drafts. Seems to have made a full recovery, he's not going to be redshirted and between the hints that have been dropped that he might go pro and the fact that there are some young guys who'll keep him from being featured next year I think he'll come out. If he blows up the combine I could see him getting into the mid-2nd round, but without a high volume year I don't believe he'll get into the first.
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After Gurley, I think he has as much upside as any back likely to come out next year, including Gordon, in my personal opinion. He's going to grade off the charts of any BMI/40 based metric--he's got legit 4.3 speed if his track times translate. He reminds me of Felix Jones at ARK, a bit.

That said, he has lot to prove and I don't know that he'll get the touches to do so, as you pointed out.
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He is really, really fast. Hard to judge some of the other aspects of his game because so many of his runs are just long sprints. For a guy listed at 5'11" 215 I don't think he runs with much thump or has a very solid looking lower body. Felix was a different type of player. More of a jitterbug and less of a pure speedster.

It's going to get messy there in Georgia with all the talent they have. The man-boy Nick Chubb might be the pick of the litter when all is said and done. 5'10" 228. State champion in the shotput, but also made the finals in the 100m with a prelim time of 10.79. Highest SPARQ rating of any RB in the country last year at the Nike HS combines. 4.47 in the 40 and 40.8" in the vertical. Good vision and instincts in highlights. Already looking the part and taking scalps in practice from what I've been reading. Going through my all-class devy list right now and he's one of the names who pops out in neon lights. Marshall is promising too, but I have him lower.

 
Faust said:
Rotoworld:

Tevin Coleman - RB - Hoosiers

Indiana junior RB Tevin Coleman "comes with a large degree of upside," writes TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.

The 6-foot-1, 205 pound Coleman led Indiana in rushing last year with 958 yards playing in nine games, averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per carry and finishing tied for second nationally with five rushes of at least 50 yards. "I like what I saw from Tevin Coleman on film and feel he comes with a large degree of upside," Pauline wrote. "Id like to see him move involved in the passing game but Coleman has a variety of next level skill." Out of his 12 rushing TDs, three covered at least 64 yards and six went at least 40 yards. Without Cody Latimer, the Hoosiers figure to rely on Coleman's playmaking ability a bit more in 2014. Pauline sees him as a Round 5 selection.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Aug 7 - 7:59 PM
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He, Gordon, and Karlos all have some similarities in my view. Not that they're exact clones or anything, but all of them are in the taller high-cut sprinter vein with okay, but not great size/power. I usually gravitate towards backs who are more powerful and/or more elusive. Somewhat down on those three relative to what they cost, although Coleman is so cheap that it's kind of a different proposition. You don't have to commit a first round dev pick to get him like you would with Gordon or Karlos.

 
EBF said:
He is really, really fast. Hard to judge some of the other aspects of his game because so many of his runs are just long sprints. For a guy listed at 5'11" 215 I don't think he runs with much thump or has a very solid looking lower body. Felix was a different type of player. More of a jitterbug and less of a pure speedster.
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Perhaps I am placing too much on Felix's Dallas stint, but I didn't see a gitterbug at all. He was all one-cut and turn the burners on. Especially his rookie season, when he was actually in shape and at his best.

 
wdcrob said:
EBF said:
He is really, really fast.
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What's your guess on how fast? 4.45? I couldn't find much about him other than the 100m times as a HS sprinter and the fact that he apparently won the race for fastest player at UGA.
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You never know for sure, but based on his high school 100m times and the fact that he seems to pull away from people when he gets free, I would guess that he can hit something in the 4.3 range.

 
I'm curious why Yeldon seems to be falling out of favor in dynasty circles. I don't understand why he's no longer considered a top back in the group of Gurley and Gordon... he's been consistently productive. There was talk that he didn't have the explosiveness he had as a freshman last year but I didn't see it. He looked like his explosive, speedy, agile self to me. I can't find any reason at all to move him out of the top 3.

:shrug:

 
werdnoynek said:
I'm curious why Yeldon seems to be falling out of favor in dynasty circles. I don't understand why he's no longer considered a top back in the group of Gurley and Gordon... he's been consistently productive. There was talk that he didn't have the explosiveness he had as a freshman last year but I didn't see it. He looked like his explosive, speedy, agile self to me. I can't find any reason at all to move him out of the top 3.

:shrug:
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I think it's an overreaction to an initial overreaction the other direction, so to speak. He's fine and still has a shot to be a first round pick next season. I think he's right there with Davis and Gordon, but I am not as high on Gordan as most seem to be.

 
werdnoynek said:
I'm curious why Yeldon seems to be falling out of favor in dynasty circles. I don't understand why he's no longer considered a top back in the group of Gurley and Gordon... he's been consistently productive. There was talk that he didn't have the explosiveness he had as a freshman last year but I didn't see it. He looked like his explosive, speedy, agile self to me. I can't find any reason at all to move him out of the top 3.

:shrug:
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I have him 4th and think he will stay there as long as he shows the requisite athleticism in his workout.
 
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