[Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects (2 Viewers)

[jurb26]

I'd be pretty surprised if Gordon ran sub 4.4. He looks like a mid - low 4.4 guy. I'm guessing 4.44. His 40 really won't change anything for me, though. He runs with great flexibility and loses little speed throughout cuts.

 

[VarsityBlues123]

NFL Draft Source ‏@NFLDraftSource 6m6 minutes ago
#NFLDraft Measures for WRs: Green-Beckham (6'5" 237), White (6'3" 215), Cooper (6'1" 211), Parker (6'3" 209), Funchess (6'4" 232) #combine

 

[Zyphros]

I'm having trouble finding actual weigh ins and measurements, can anyone point me in that direction? Not rounded please.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Northern Iowa RB David Johnson measured 6-foot 1/2 and 224 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Highly productive in the MAC, Johnson is a sleeper to be drafted on the second day, although the depth of this running back class will work against him. Johnson has drawn some Arian Foster comparisons for his smooth running style.

Feb 19 - 12:35 PM

 

[VarsityBlues123]

I'm having trouble finding actual weigh ins and measurements, can anyone point me in that direction? Not rounded please.

NFL Draft Source ‏@NFLDraftSource 29s29 seconds agoView translation
Jay Ajayi RB #BoiseState 6'0" 221 T. Coleman RB #Indiana 5'11" 206 Ameer Abdullah RB #Nebraska 5'9" 205 #Combine #NFLDraft #Measurements


NFL Draft Source ‏@NFLDraftSource 1m1 minute agoView translation
Melvin Gordon RB #Wisconsin 6'1" 215 Todd Gurley RB #Georgia 6'1" 222 TJ Yeldon RB #Alabama 6'1" 226 #Combine #NFLDraft #Measurements

 

[MAC_32]

Rotoworld:

Northern Iowa RB David Johnson measured 6-foot 1/2 and 224 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Highly productive in the MAC, Johnson is a sleeper to be drafted on the second day, although the depth of this running back class will work against him. Johnson has drawn some Arian Foster comparisons for his smooth running style.

Feb 19 - 12:35 PM

wrong conference, rotoworld.

 

[BigTex]

I'm having trouble finding actual weigh ins and measurements, can anyone point me in that direction? Not rounded please.

NFL Draft Source ‏@NFLDraftSource 29s29 seconds agoView translation

Jay Ajayi RB #BoiseState 6'0" 221 T. Coleman RB #Indiana 5'11" 206 Ameer Abdullah RB #Nebraska 5'9" 205 #Combine #NFLDraft #Measurements


NFL Draft Source ‏@NFLDraftSource 1m1 minute agoView translation

Melvin Gordon RB #Wisconsin 6'1" 215 Todd Gurley RB #Georgia 6'1" 222 TJ Yeldon RB #Alabama 6'1" 226 #Combine #NFLDraft #Measurements

Lol, Jay is taller than what everyone thought and Coleman is shorter...

 

[Faust]

Be like Gronk

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Mississippi State junior RB Josh Robinson mentioned that he met with the New England Patriots, according to NESN's Doug Kyed.
The Patriots recently signed both LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden, with both Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley scheduled to hit free agency. With that being said, New England should look to the draft to add quality depth at the RB position. Robinson has great hands and is effective as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, and has the ability to pick up yac. The 5-foot-9, 215-pound Robinson has drawn comparisons to NFL veteran Maurice Jones-Drew.

Source: Doug Kyed on Twitter
Feb 19 - 3:30 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Boise State redshirt junior RB Jay Ajayi mentioned that he has an official meeting set up with the Dallas Cowboys, according to DallasCowboys.com's staff writer David Helman.
With the Cowboys leaning towards applying the franchise tag on WR Dez Bryant, RB Demarco Murray's future is up in the air in Dallas. The Cowboys could be looking at cheaper RB options via the draft to help out there situation. With a quality group of running backs in the first 3 rounds, the 6-foot, 216-pound Ajayi could offer Dallas a player with a potential three-down-back skill set. The Boise State prospect could hear his name called in the second round of the draft.

Source: David Helman on Twitter
Feb 19 - 3:03 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

UMass TE Jean Sifrin's "game film reeks of upside potential," wrote TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.
"I’m not overly keen on the tight end class but watch Jean Sifrin from UMass. He was a surprise junior entry but his game film reeks of upside potential. I’m told there’s a chance Sifrin runs in the 4.5’s, which would likely be the fastest time of the non move/H-back tight ends (aka, the Wes Saxton types)," Pauline wrote. Sifrin checked into Indy with combine measurements of 6-foot-5, 245 pounds.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 19 - 6:49 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Rutgers TE Tyler Kroft is "likely to impress with his athletic numbers," wrote TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.
"Still suffering the remnants of a high ankle sprain which he incurred during the season, Kroft is not 100% but could still break into the 4.6’s in the forty," Pauline wrote. "Known primarily as a pass catcher, it must be pointed out Kroft’s blocking improved as the season progressed in 2015." The 6-foot-6, 240-pound Kroft caught 43 passes for 573 yards and four touchdowns in 2013, but fell off to 24 receptions for 269 yards and zero touchdowns this season. "He has the size and he has that length you like," an AFC scout said. "And he's probably going to fill out over the next few years. He runs OK, too. I like him."

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 19 - 6:23 PM

 

[Faust]

Sources Tell Us: What we heard on Day 2 of scouting combine

 

[mcintyre1]

A bit surprised with Abdullah checking in at 205. I'm not sure where he'd put those extra 7-10 lbs over playing weight since he's so compact. Hopefully it doesn't hurt his agility numbers.

 

[Faust]

Pittsburgh Steelers getting a close look at Jesse James at NFL combineRotoworld:

Penn State TE Jesse James "could get into the low 4.7’s during his forty and over 35-inches on the vertical jump," reported TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.
James measured in at 6-foot-7, 261 pounds at the combine with 33" arms and 9 3/8" hands. "I’m told James has also run good shuttle times in training," Pauline added. We'd previously heard his 40 time reported at 4.78, with 27 reps of 225 pounds on the bench.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 19 - 7:41 PM

 

[EBF]

Was hoping Kevin White would be either shorter or heavier. 26.9 is not an ideal BMI for him given his playing style. Nowhere near the Fitz/Hopkins comps. I knew he wasn't as big as Fitz, but I hoped he would be closer.

Parker is a real wisp too. 26.1 BMI is very low on the scale. Puts him in AJ Green/Reggie Wayne territory in terms of body type comps.

Good numbers for Cooper though. Especially if he pairs it with a fast 40 time.

DGB and Funchess both come in at a 28.X BMI. That's ideal "big" WR territory. Too light to play TE if they need to block at all.

Can't believe Ty Montgomery weighs 221 pounds. That's almost TOO big for a WR. He's thicker than even Andre Johnson. 30.0 is usually a BMI score that you'd see for a RB or TE. It will be interesting to see if he's fluid in the route running drills. He certainly looks the part moving vertically.

On the RB side, bad numbers for Langford and Coleman. Langford is a JAG to me and I didn't like Coleman much even before this. Coleman will need to crank a blazing 40 to look like anything more than a backup. Was hoping Gurley would be heavier. Thought he would be 230+.

Good numbers for Cobb and Ajayi. If either guy runs well, he can solidify a spot in the 2nd-3rd round.

 

[Run It Up]

I'm really interested in the TE class this year.

Williams, Walford, Kroft and James specifically.

 

[Faust]

Outside of the top two, can anyone in this QB draft class succeed?

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/outside-of-the-top-two--can-anyone-in-this-qb-draft-class-succeed--221941832.html

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Nick O'Leary - TE - Seminoles

Florida State TE Nick O'Leary will participate in the complete combine workout if his hamstring feels up to it.

"You may remember O’Leary hurt his hamstring during pre-game warm-ups at the Rose Bowl six weeks ago which forced him to take a different approach to combine training," wrote TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline. O'Leary comes with durability and maturity questions. He missed a portion of spring practices last season after he was involved in a second major motorcycle accident. The NFL won't allow his bike career to continue.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Feb 19 - 8:14 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Randall Telfer - TE - Trojans

TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline reports "I’m not hearing good things about" USC TE Randall Telfer.

"Dating back to the NFLPA game I was told the tight end is out of shape and does not seem serious about the pre-draft process," Pauline wrote. This report is very interesting. Telfer pulled out of the NFLPA Bowl citing a foot injury he incurred in a bowl win over Nebraska. Has a severe foot injury forced him out of the gym this winter? Or, as this report suggests, is Telfer loafing through the process? As a Trojan, Telfer caught 65 passes for 648 yards and 12 touchdowns across four seasons.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Feb 19 - 5:37 PM

 

[pizzatyme]

Well, that does it! Player X's BMI isn't ideal, he's a backup!

That was easy.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

Don't do this to us, man!

 

[miqws]

2015 rookie mock drafts February ADP:

http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2015/02/18/2015-rookie-mock-drafts-february-adp-a-look-at-this-years-class/

 

[Faust]

Bloodlines help propel Maxx Williams to top of tight end draft class:

http://espn.go.com/blog/pittsburgh-steelers/post/_/id/12575/bloodlines-help-propel-maxx-williams-to-top-of-tight-end-draft-class

 

[georg013]

I thought once Kevin White measured in shorter than 6'3 his stock would drop. He was actually 6'3? What excuse will we use now? Serious question.

 

[Run It Up]

I thought once Kevin White measured in shorter than 6'3 his stock would drop. He was actually 6'3? What excuse will we use now? Serious question.

He isn't 6'4"+ ldo.

 

[Xue]

I thought once Kevin White measured in shorter than 6'3 his stock would drop. He was actually 6'3? What excuse will we use now? Serious question.

I thought his strength was contested catching, why are people saying he needs to run a certain 40 time?

 

[EBF]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

It might be less important. There's a wider range of successful body types at RB than WR, spanning all the way from Charles/CJ2K/Spiller in the 27.X range to MJD/Turner/Stewart in the 33.X+ range. At WR you have Green/Wayne in the 26.X range and Andre Johnson in the 29.X range, but virtually nobody successful outside that territory. DeSean Jackson is the one guy below 26 who has had some sustained success, so I guess you could count him. He does underscore the idea that if you're that slender then you have to have insane speed/quickness to compensate, which is also true at RB.

Anyway, BMI provides a frame of reference that can help you understand a player's physique, playing style, and skill set. For example, White and Parker both checking in between 26.0-27.0 suggests that they're going to need to thrive on finesse/speed/quickness because their frames are relatively light compared with a typical big possession guy. For example, Fitz/VJax/Dez are all substantially heavier relative to their heights. Ditto Benjamin and Evans from last year's draft.

Given that White seems to lack great speed and plays more like a physical possession type of receiver, you would've liked to have seen a height/weight shaded more towards the 28+ BMI range. That's where Hopkins, Watkins, Evans, and Benjamin all landed in previous years. Patterson too IIRC. So while 6'3" 215 might seem like a "big" receiver on paper, it's a little bit on the lean side. That's not a death sentence or a guarantee that White will bust. Just another piece of information to factor into your analysis and help you understand what this player offers. My beef with most mainstream and casual pundits is that they tend to look at height or weight in isolation. So 6'2"+ is always "good size" for a WR regardless of bulk and 215+ is always "good size" for a RB regardless of height. It's a little more complicated than that. For example, Melvin Gordon's 215 pounds on a 6'0 5/8" frame means something very different from Michael Dyer's 218 pounds on a 5'8 1/4" frame. To a lazy analyst, they have similar size. In reality, their body types are radically different.

It's a useful thing to look at, especially in conjunction with 40 times. For example, knowing that Langford/Coleman/Gordon are all relatively lean for a RB, I would definitely feel better about their prospects if they clocked a fast 40 time. It's less important for someone like Cobb, Ajayi, or Dyer because those guys have the bulk and power to function effectively in the NFL even with just 4.5 speed.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

It might be less important. There's a wider range of successful body types at RB than WR, spanning all the way from Charles/CJ2K/Spiller in the 27.X range to MJD/Turner/Stewart in the 33.X+ range. At WR you have Green/Wayne in the 26.X range and Andre Johnson in the 29.X range, but virtually nobody successful outside that territory. DeSean Jackson is the one guy below 26 who has had some sustained success, so I guess you could count him.

Randy Moss was listed as 6'4" and 210 lbs. Which is a BMI of 25.6

Doesn't he count too?

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

It might be less important. There's a wider range of successful body types at RB than WR, spanning all the way from Charles/CJ2K/Spiller in the 27.X range to MJD/Turner/Stewart in the 33.X+ range. At WR you have Green/Wayne in the 26.X range and Andre Johnson in the 29.X range, but virtually nobody successful outside that territory. DeSean Jackson is the one guy below 26 who has had some sustained success, so I guess you could count him. He does underscore the idea that if you're that slender then you have to have insane speed/quickness to compensate, which is also true at RB.

Anyway, BMI provides a frame of reference that can help you understand a player's physique, playing style, and skill set. For example, White and Parker both checking in between 26.0-27.0 suggests that they're going to need to thrive on finesse/speed/quickness because their frames are relatively light compared with a typical big possession guy. For example, Fitz/VJax/Dez are all substantially heavier relative to their heights. Ditto Benjamin and Evans from last year's draft.

Given that White seems to lack great speed and plays more like a physical possession type of receiver, you would've liked to have seen a height/weight shaded more towards the 28+ BMI range. That's where Hopkins, Watkins, Evans, and Benjamin all landed in previous years. Patterson too IIRC. So while 6'3" 215 might seem like a "big" receiver on paper, it's a little bit on the lean side. That's not a death sentence or a guarantee that White will bust. Just another piece of information to factor into your analysis and help you understand what this player offers. My beef with most mainstream and casual pundits is that they tend to look at height or weight in isolation. So 6'2"+ is always "good size" for a WR regardless of bulk and 215+ is always "good size" for a RB regardless of height. It's a little more complicated than that. For example, Melvin Gordon's 215 pounds on a 6'0 5/8" frame means something very different from Michael Dyer's 218 pounds on a 5'8 1/4" frame. To a lazy analyst, they have similar size. In reality, their body types are radically different.

It's a useful thing to look at, especially in conjunction with 40 times. For example, knowing that Langford/Coleman/Gordon are all relatively lean for a RB, I would definitely feel better about their prospects if they clocked a fast 40 time. It's less important for someone like Cobb, Ajayi, or Dyer because those guys have the bulk and power to function effectively in the NFL even with just 4.5 speed.

So you like Dyer more than Gordon because of BMI if Gordon doesn't run a fast 40? Seriously EBF you need to step back from the scales and tape measure every once in awhile and look at their body of work. I'm not saying BMI shouldn't be considered, but not as much as you put on it.

 

[pizzatyme]

Coleman is a backup RB due to his BMI.

 

[BeTheMatch]

oh, my god. make it stop.

 

[JohnnyU]

oh, my god. make it stop.

No sheet.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think EBF's a little too rigid, but he's on the right track IMO. Size and build tell you a ton about a player and what he'll need to succeed in the NFL.

--NCAA Career

--Size and Build

--Combine Measurements/Physical Tools

--Medical, Character, Work Ethic and Psychological considerations.

Measuring all of those things and merging them into a holistic prediction is as good as you can do.

We don't have access to the last set, but we do have the other three and BMI is one part of Size and Build. It's not always relevant, but there are times it's pretty important too.

ETA: I'd prefer to have measurements that show how weight is distributed on a player, and what his body fat % is -- but obviously we don't have that. So BMI is a useful substitute.

 

[Faust]

AFC exec says Melvin Gordon 'just a runner,' prefers T.J. Yeldon

 

[Faust]

They said it: Four interesting nuggets from the NFL scouting combine

Excerpt:

Maryland wide receiver Stefon Diggs is not readily mentioned as one of the top wide receivers in a draft class that is loaded with talented pass catchers again. Just don’t tell that to Diggs, who still had a season of eligibility when he declared for the draft. The 6-foot, 190-pounder said he is the best wideout in the draft after catching 62 passes for 792 yards and five touchdowns last season for the Terrapins. “I believe in my ability and my mental toughness,” said Diggs, who also returned four punts for touchdowns in college. “I know I can pick up a playbook, like anybody can, and I can compete with anybody.”

 

[EBF]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

It might be less important. There's a wider range of successful body types at RB than WR, spanning all the way from Charles/CJ2K/Spiller in the 27.X range to MJD/Turner/Stewart in the 33.X+ range. At WR you have Green/Wayne in the 26.X range and Andre Johnson in the 29.X range, but virtually nobody successful outside that territory. DeSean Jackson is the one guy below 26 who has had some sustained success, so I guess you could count him.

Randy Moss was listed as 6'4" and 210 lbs. Which is a BMI of 25.6

Doesn't he count too?

Moss was a stick. No doubt about that. You could say he was a WR version of Charles or Spiller. Really skinny, but also insanely fast and explosive. I think the latter can compensate for the former. Especially when you add height to the equation. Very few WRs have Randy's speed though. In his prime he could run by anyone.

 

[EBF]

So you like Dyer more than Gordon because of BMI if Gordon doesn't run a fast 40? Seriously EBF you need to step back from the scales and tape measure every once in awhile and look at their body of work. I'm not saying BMI shouldn't be considered, but not as much as you put on it.

I don't like Dyer more than Gordon. All else being equal, he has a better body type though. He's a more prototypical physical specimen on paper.

 

[EBF]

Coleman is a backup RB due to his BMI.

It's more to do with the fact that he has a lean build and marginal elusiveness. The former is reflected in the BMI. Given the history of backs with his dimensions, I would say Coleman needs either insane speed or elite elusiveness to have any chance at sustained NFL success as a starter. I don't think he possesses the latter, so to save any face he will need to rip off a 4.3X tomorrow.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Rutgers TE Tyler Kroft "had his ankle injured" by doctors during Combine medical examinations, according to draft insider Tony Pauline.

Kroft had "remnants" of an ankle injury during the season which doctors want to take a closer look at. "I’m told doctors during the medicals pulled and twisted Kroft’s ankle to test the integrity of the joint and they stretched it a bit to much," Pauline writes, saying a similar situation happened in the past with Dan Connor. Todd Gurley also refused his medicals. This is a bizarre story.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 20 - 12:01 PM

 

[RUSF18]

Rotoworld:

Rutgers TE Tyler Kroft is "likely to impress with his athletic numbers," wrote TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.
"Still suffering the remnants of a high ankle sprain which he incurred during the season, Kroft is not 100% but could still break into the 4.6’s in the forty," Pauline wrote. "Known primarily as a pass catcher, it must be pointed out Kroft’s blocking improved as the season progressed in 2015." The 6-foot-6, 240-pound Kroft caught 43 passes for 573 yards and four touchdowns in 2013, but fell off to 24 receptions for 269 yards and zero touchdowns this season. "He has the size and he has that length you like," an AFC scout said. "And he's probably going to fill out over the next few years. He runs OK, too. I like him."

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 19 - 6:23 PM

So much for this. Apparently doctors were twisting and poking his ankle so much, that it ballooned overnight and he can't do any drills.

edit: Snaked! Being a Rutgers alum, I heard this story a few hours ago. Should have known in order to beat Faust with an update, it needs to be posted immediately.

 

[DexterDew]

They said it: Four interesting nuggets from the NFL scouting combine

Excerpt:

Maryland wide receiver Stefon Diggs is not readily mentioned as one of the top wide receivers in a draft class that is loaded with talented pass catchers again. Just don’t tell that to Diggs, who still had a season of eligibility when he declared for the draft. The 6-foot, 190-pounder said he is the best wideout in the draft after catching 62 passes for 792 yards and five touchdowns last season for the Terrapins. “I believe in my ability and my mental toughness,” said Diggs, who also returned four punts for touchdowns in college. “I know I can pick up a playbook, like anybody can, and I can compete with anybody.”

Been holding on to this guy for a couple years, still have hope he gets picked Day 2. Pretty electric with the ball in his (huge) hands. Needs to run sub 4.5 this weekend

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think EBF's a little too rigid, but he's on the right track IMO. Size and build tell you a ton about a player and what he'll need to succeed in the NFL.

--NCAA Career

--Size and Build

--Combine Measurements/Physical Tools

--Medical, Character, Work Ethic and Psychological considerations.

Measuring all of those things and merging them into a holistic prediction is as good as you can do.

We don't have access to the last set, but we do have the other three and BMI is one part of Size and Build. It's not always relevant, but there are times it's pretty important too.

ETA: I'd prefer to have measurements that show how weight is distributed on a player, and what his body fat % is -- but obviously we don't have that. So BMI is a useful substitute.

I think he's more than a little too rigid. I do think the premise is good however. Where I agree is when the BMI comes in way out of the norm. If a WR falls within 26-29 range, I just check it off as not to worry about. Now obviously, it would help if the guys on the lower end of that spectrum were fast too. As long as they have functional NFL speed though, I don't think it's anything to worry about.

Somebody that fell out of the norm was Justin Hunter for example. 6'4" 196lbs. 23.86 BMI. Personally, I thought he was such a great athlete (4.36 40 time, 11'6" Broad, 40+" vertical) that he'd be able to overcome it. He hasn't.

I grabbed a bunch of WRs between 6'2" and 6'3.5" and 208 and 220 lbs for a point of reference.

Cris Carter 6'3" 208lbs 4.63/40 BMI 26

AJ Green 6'3.5" 211 lbs 4.48/40 BMI 26.02

DeVante Parker 6'3" 209lbs (projected 4.48) BMI 26.12

Jordan Matthews 6'3" 212lbs 4.44/40 BMI 26.5

Michael Irvin 6'2" 207lbs 4.52 40 BMI 26.57

Kevin White 6'3" 215lbs (projected 4.49) BMI 26.9

Alshon Jeffery 6'2.6" 216lbs 4.48/40 BMI 27.21

Eric Decker 6'3" 217lbs 4.54/40 BMI 27.25

Kenny Britt 6'3" 218lbs 4.5/40 BMI 27.25

Cody Latimer 6'2.4" 215lbs 4.44/40 BMI 27.31

Jordy Nelson 6'2.5" 217lbs 4.51/40 BMI 27.5

Julio Jones 6'2.6" 220lbs 4.34/40 BMI 27.79

Allen Robinson 6'2.5" 220lbs 4.57/40 BMI 27.87

Keep in mind that Jordy Nelson is near the top of the BMI scale here. He was 6'2.5" and 217 lbs. Kevin White is 6'3" and 215lbs. That is the hair splitting between 26.9 BMI and 27.5 BMI

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I don't bother trying to really explain anything anymore because, well, read up about five posts.

But small differences are often only "small" because that's how we're used to thinking of them. In the context of the margins that help a professional athlete succeed many aren't small at all.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think EBF's a little too rigid, but he's on the right track IMO. Size and build tell you a ton about a player and what he'll need to succeed in the NFL.

--NCAA Career

--Size and Build

--Combine Measurements/Physical Tools

--Medical, Character, Work Ethic and Psychological considerations.

Measuring all of those things and merging them into a holistic prediction is as good as you can do.

We don't have access to the last set, but we do have the other three and BMI is one part of Size and Build. It's not always relevant, but there are times it's pretty important too.

ETA: I'd prefer to have measurements that show how weight is distributed on a player, and what his body fat % is -- but obviously we don't have that. So BMI is a useful substitute.

I think he's more than a little too rigid. I do think the premise is good however. Where I agree is when the BMI comes in way out of the norm. If a WR falls within 26-29 range, I just check it off as not to worry about. Now obviously, it would help if the guys on the lower end of that spectrum were fast too. As long as they have functional NFL speed though, I don't think it's anything to worry about.

Somebody that fell out of the norm was Justin Hunter for example. 6'4" 196lbs. 23.86 BMI. Personally, I thought he was such a great athlete (4.36 40 time, 11'6" Broad, 40+" vertical) that he'd be able to overcome it. He hasn't.

I grabbed a bunch of WRs between 6'2" and 6'3.5" and 208 and 220 lbs for a point of reference.

Cris Carter 6'3" 208lbs 4.63/40 BMI 26

AJ Green 6'3.5" 211 lbs 4.48/40 BMI 26.02

DeVante Parker 6'3" 209lbs (projected 4.48) BMI 26.12

Jordan Matthews 6'3" 212lbs 4.44/40 BMI 26.5

Michael Irvin 6'2" 207lbs 4.52 40 BMI 26.57

Kevin White 6'3" 215lbs (projected 4.49) BMI 26.9

Alshon Jeffery 6'2.6" 216lbs 4.48/40 BMI 27.21

Eric Decker 6'3" 217lbs 4.54/40 BMI 27.25

Kenny Britt 6'3" 218lbs 4.5/40 BMI 27.25

Cody Latimer 6'2.4" 215lbs 4.44/40 BMI 27.31

Jordy Nelson 6'2.5" 217lbs 4.51/40 BMI 27.5

Julio Jones 6'2.6" 220lbs 4.34/40 BMI 27.79

Allen Robinson 6'2.5" 220lbs 4.57/40 BMI 27.87

Keep in mind that Jordy Nelson is near the top of the BMI scale here. He was 6'2.5" and 217 lbs. Kevin White is 6'3" and 215lbs. That is the hair splitting between 26.9 BMI and 27.5 BMI

Id love to see Justin Hunter play with a mid level QB like a Cutler/Rivers type even, I think he would produce well

 

[Concept Coop]

I think the key to any measurement is showing that it can consistently beat the current standard. In this case, the NFL draft (draft position).

I liken it to a gambling system that hasn't been tested against Vegas odds. Nobody cares about a system that predicts wins--how does it do against the spread?

To keep with this metaphor: It's cool that home teams win 65% of their games when their opponent is coming off back-to-backs. That means absolutely nothing when placing a bet, however, as it's already built into the spread.

Someone show me that the NFL doesn't accurately account for BMI in their methods and we'll have something. Without that it's just noise, IMO.

Odell Beckham Jr. wasn't a typical top 15 pick at WR. He went top 15 anyway. The NFL knew he didn't fit the typical mold when it graded him, the same way Vegas knows X,Y,Z when it sets odds (that people dedicate their life to beating at a 55% rate).

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I don't bother trying to really explain anything anymore because, well, read up about five posts.

But small differences are often only "small" because that's how we're used to thinking of them. In the context of the margins that help a professional athlete succeed many aren't small at all.

I've read enough EBF and your blog on the subject to understand what you guys are getting at.

I just wanted to put a little context to this particular thought about Kevin White. Nelson, Decker, Jeffery, Britt, Latimer and White are all within 1/2" and 3 LBs of one another.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think the key to any measurement is showing that it can consistently beat the current standard. In this case, the NFL draft (draft position).

I liken it to a gambling system that hasn't been tested against Vegas odds. Nobody cares about a system that predicts wins--how does it do against the spread?

To keep with this metaphor: It's cool that home teams win 65% of their games when their opponent is coming off back-to-backs. That means absolutely nothing when placing a bet, however, as it's already built into the spread.

Someone show me that the NFL doesn't accurately account for BMI in their methods and we'll have something. Without that it's just noise, IMO.

FWIW, I think the NFL draft has gotten WAAAY more rational in the last 6-8 years.

But even today draft position incorporates a bunch of financial and risk considerations that we don't have to worry about.

 

[Pipes]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

It might be less important. There's a wider range of successful body types at RB than WR, spanning all the way from Charles/CJ2K/Spiller in the 27.X range to MJD/Turner/Stewart in the 33.X+ range. At WR you have Green/Wayne in the 26.X range and Andre Johnson in the 29.X range, but virtually nobody successful outside that territory. DeSean Jackson is the one guy below 26 who has had some sustained success, so I guess you could count him. He does underscore the idea that if you're that slender then you have to have insane speed/quickness to compensate, which is also true at RB.

Anyway, BMI provides a frame of reference that can help you understand a player's physique, playing style, and skill set. For example, White and Parker both checking in between 26.0-27.0 suggests that they're going to need to thrive on finesse/speed/quickness because their frames are relatively light compared with a typical big possession guy. For example, Fitz/VJax/Dez are all substantially heavier relative to their heights. Ditto Benjamin and Evans from last year's draft.

Given that White seems to lack great speed and plays more like a physical possession type of receiver, you would've liked to have seen a height/weight shaded more towards the 28+ BMI range. That's where Hopkins, Watkins, Evans, and Benjamin all landed in previous years. Patterson too IIRC. So while 6'3" 215 might seem like a "big" receiver on paper, it's a little bit on the lean side. That's not a death sentence or a guarantee that White will bust. Just another piece of information to factor into your analysis and help you understand what this player offers. My beef with most mainstream and casual pundits is that they tend to look at height or weight in isolation. So 6'2"+ is always "good size" for a WR regardless of bulk and 215+ is always "good size" for a RB regardless of height. It's a little more complicated than that. For example, Melvin Gordon's 215 pounds on a 6'0 5/8" frame means something very different from Michael Dyer's 218 pounds on a 5'8 1/4" frame. To a lazy analyst, they have similar size. In reality, their body types are radically different.

It's a useful thing to look at, especially in conjunction with 40 times. For example, knowing that Langford/Coleman/Gordon are all relatively lean for a RB, I would definitely feel better about their prospects if they clocked a fast 40 time. It's less important for someone like Cobb, Ajayi, or Dyer because those guys have the bulk and power to function effectively in the NFL even with just 4.5 speed.

So you like Dyer more than Gordon because of BMI if Gordon doesn't run a fast 40? Seriously EBF you need to step back from the scales and tape measure every once in awhile and look at their body of work. I'm not saying BMI shouldn't be considered, but not as much as you put on it.

What was Jerry Rice's BMI and 40 time?