[Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects (2 Viewers)

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Maxx Williams - TE - Player

Minnesota TE Maxx Williams clocked forty times of 4.90 and 4.77 at the NFL Scouting Combine.

They're relatively underwhelming times for Williams, who stands just under 6-foot-4 and weighs 249 pounds. His broad jump was a solid-but-unspectacular nine feet, nine inches. Athletically, at least, Williams profiles more closely to Dennis Pitta than Greg Olsen. Williams remains the heavy favorite to be the first tight end drafted, but early whispers of him jumping into the early first round seem unlikely to come to fruition.

Feb 20 - 1:36 PM

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

It might be less important. There's a wider range of successful body types at RB than WR, spanning all the way from Charles/CJ2K/Spiller in the 27.X range to MJD/Turner/Stewart in the 33.X+ range. At WR you have Green/Wayne in the 26.X range and Andre Johnson in the 29.X range, but virtually nobody successful outside that territory. DeSean Jackson is the one guy below 26 who has had some sustained success, so I guess you could count him. He does underscore the idea that if you're that slender then you have to have insane speed/quickness to compensate, which is also true at RB.

Anyway, BMI provides a frame of reference that can help you understand a player's physique, playing style, and skill set. For example, White and Parker both checking in between 26.0-27.0 suggests that they're going to need to thrive on finesse/speed/quickness because their frames are relatively light compared with a typical big possession guy. For example, Fitz/VJax/Dez are all substantially heavier relative to their heights. Ditto Benjamin and Evans from last year's draft.

Given that White seems to lack great speed and plays more like a physical possession type of receiver, you would've liked to have seen a height/weight shaded more towards the 28+ BMI range. That's where Hopkins, Watkins, Evans, and Benjamin all landed in previous years. Patterson too IIRC. So while 6'3" 215 might seem like a "big" receiver on paper, it's a little bit on the lean side. That's not a death sentence or a guarantee that White will bust. Just another piece of information to factor into your analysis and help you understand what this player offers. My beef with most mainstream and casual pundits is that they tend to look at height or weight in isolation. So 6'2"+ is always "good size" for a WR regardless of bulk and 215+ is always "good size" for a RB regardless of height. It's a little more complicated than that. For example, Melvin Gordon's 215 pounds on a 6'0 5/8" frame means something very different from Michael Dyer's 218 pounds on a 5'8 1/4" frame. To a lazy analyst, they have similar size. In reality, their body types are radically different.

It's a useful thing to look at, especially in conjunction with 40 times. For example, knowing that Langford/Coleman/Gordon are all relatively lean for a RB, I would definitely feel better about their prospects if they clocked a fast 40 time. It's less important for someone like Cobb, Ajayi, or Dyer because those guys have the bulk and power to function effectively in the NFL even with just 4.5 speed.

So you like Dyer more than Gordon because of BMI if Gordon doesn't run a fast 40? Seriously EBF you need to step back from the scales and tape measure every once in awhile and look at their body of work. I'm not saying BMI shouldn't be considered, but not as much as you put on it.

What was Jerry Rice's BMI and 40 time?

Marvin Harrison ran a 4.49 at the combine and he looked like a WR that would break if a strong wind hit him. You have to take into account other factors when evaluating players for fantasy. I'm pretty sure if Marvin Harrison had went to a less friendly QB system he probably would have put up mediocre stats.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think the key to any measurement is showing that it can consistently beat the current standard. In this case, the NFL draft (draft position).

I liken it to a gambling system that hasn't been tested against Vegas odds. Nobody cares about a system that predicts wins--how does it do against the spread?

To keep with this metaphor: It's cool that home teams win 65% of their games when their opponent is coming off back-to-backs. That means absolutely nothing when placing a bet, however, as it's already built into the spread.

Someone show me that the NFL doesn't accurately account for BMI in their methods and we'll have something. Without that it's just noise, IMO.

FWIW, I think the NFL draft has gotten WAAAY more rational in the last 6-8 years.

But even today draft position incorporates a bunch of financial and risk considerations that we don't have to worry about.

This is true, but it's still the standard. I think we're much better off piggy backing off it and finding the gaps between NFL and fantasy value-- rather than trying to out do it.

The market knew AJ Green didn't fit the mold when it made him a premium asset. It still made him a premium asset. What value was a BMI study to owners picking between Green, Julio and Ingram?

When players who don't fit the mold are still valued as premium assets (Green/Beckham)--they don't belong in a group of players who didn't fit the mold and weren't valued as premium assets.

If Tevin Coleman, for example, goes in the 2nd round it is a lot more sound to value him as a random 2nd rounder than a random RB with X BMI.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Justin Hardy - WR - Pirates

ECU WR Justin Hardy is hoping to "make a run" at the 3-cone Combine record for his position, according to Tony Pauline.

Hardy reportedly expects a forty in the 4.5 range, but the change of direction skills are where he could shine. Since 2006, the best 3-cone time is 6.42 from Jeff Maehl. Hardy excelled in the slot at ECU, but showed perimeter ability at the Senior Bowl.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Feb 20 - 1:41 PM

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

It might be less important. There's a wider range of successful body types at RB than WR, spanning all the way from Charles/CJ2K/Spiller in the 27.X range to MJD/Turner/Stewart in the 33.X+ range. At WR you have Green/Wayne in the 26.X range and Andre Johnson in the 29.X range, but virtually nobody successful outside that territory. DeSean Jackson is the one guy below 26 who has had some sustained success, so I guess you could count him. He does underscore the idea that if you're that slender then you have to have insane speed/quickness to compensate, which is also true at RB.

Anyway, BMI provides a frame of reference that can help you understand a player's physique, playing style, and skill set. For example, White and Parker both checking in between 26.0-27.0 suggests that they're going to need to thrive on finesse/speed/quickness because their frames are relatively light compared with a typical big possession guy. For example, Fitz/VJax/Dez are all substantially heavier relative to their heights. Ditto Benjamin and Evans from last year's draft.

Given that White seems to lack great speed and plays more like a physical possession type of receiver, you would've liked to have seen a height/weight shaded more towards the 28+ BMI range. That's where Hopkins, Watkins, Evans, and Benjamin all landed in previous years. Patterson too IIRC. So while 6'3" 215 might seem like a "big" receiver on paper, it's a little bit on the lean side. That's not a death sentence or a guarantee that White will bust. Just another piece of information to factor into your analysis and help you understand what this player offers. My beef with most mainstream and casual pundits is that they tend to look at height or weight in isolation. So 6'2"+ is always "good size" for a WR regardless of bulk and 215+ is always "good size" for a RB regardless of height. It's a little more complicated than that. For example, Melvin Gordon's 215 pounds on a 6'0 5/8" frame means something very different from Michael Dyer's 218 pounds on a 5'8 1/4" frame. To a lazy analyst, they have similar size. In reality, their body types are radically different.

It's a useful thing to look at, especially in conjunction with 40 times. For example, knowing that Langford/Coleman/Gordon are all relatively lean for a RB, I would definitely feel better about their prospects if they clocked a fast 40 time. It's less important for someone like Cobb, Ajayi, or Dyer because those guys have the bulk and power to function effectively in the NFL even with just 4.5 speed.

So you like Dyer more than Gordon because of BMI if Gordon doesn't run a fast 40? Seriously EBF you need to step back from the scales and tape measure every once in awhile and look at their body of work. I'm not saying BMI shouldn't be considered, but not as much as you put on it.

What was Jerry Rice's BMI and 40 time?

Marvin Harrison ran a 4.49 at the combine and he looked like a WR that would break if a strong wind hit him. You have to take into account other factors when evaluating players for fantasy. I'm pretty sure if Marvin Harrison had went to a less friendly QB system he probably would have put up mediocre stats.

4.38

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm not so sure BMI is such a big deal for WRs. It may have more importance for RBs. Hell, AJ Green looks skinny compared to a lot of WRs.

It might be less important. There's a wider range of successful body types at RB than WR, spanning all the way from Charles/CJ2K/Spiller in the 27.X range to MJD/Turner/Stewart in the 33.X+ range. At WR you have Green/Wayne in the 26.X range and Andre Johnson in the 29.X range, but virtually nobody successful outside that territory. DeSean Jackson is the one guy below 26 who has had some sustained success, so I guess you could count him. He does underscore the idea that if you're that slender then you have to have insane speed/quickness to compensate, which is also true at RB.

Anyway, BMI provides a frame of reference that can help you understand a player's physique, playing style, and skill set. For example, White and Parker both checking in between 26.0-27.0 suggests that they're going to need to thrive on finesse/speed/quickness because their frames are relatively light compared with a typical big possession guy. For example, Fitz/VJax/Dez are all substantially heavier relative to their heights. Ditto Benjamin and Evans from last year's draft.

Given that White seems to lack great speed and plays more like a physical possession type of receiver, you would've liked to have seen a height/weight shaded more towards the 28+ BMI range. That's where Hopkins, Watkins, Evans, and Benjamin all landed in previous years. Patterson too IIRC. So while 6'3" 215 might seem like a "big" receiver on paper, it's a little bit on the lean side. That's not a death sentence or a guarantee that White will bust. Just another piece of information to factor into your analysis and help you understand what this player offers. My beef with most mainstream and casual pundits is that they tend to look at height or weight in isolation. So 6'2"+ is always "good size" for a WR regardless of bulk and 215+ is always "good size" for a RB regardless of height. It's a little more complicated than that. For example, Melvin Gordon's 215 pounds on a 6'0 5/8" frame means something very different from Michael Dyer's 218 pounds on a 5'8 1/4" frame. To a lazy analyst, they have similar size. In reality, their body types are radically different.

It's a useful thing to look at, especially in conjunction with 40 times. For example, knowing that Langford/Coleman/Gordon are all relatively lean for a RB, I would definitely feel better about their prospects if they clocked a fast 40 time. It's less important for someone like Cobb, Ajayi, or Dyer because those guys have the bulk and power to function effectively in the NFL even with just 4.5 speed.

So you like Dyer more than Gordon because of BMI if Gordon doesn't run a fast 40? Seriously EBF you need to step back from the scales and tape measure every once in awhile and look at their body of work. I'm not saying BMI shouldn't be considered, but not as much as you put on it.

What was Jerry Rice's BMI and 40 time?

Marvin Harrison ran a 4.49 at the combine and he looked like a WR that would break if a strong wind hit him. You have to take into account other factors when evaluating players for fantasy. I'm pretty sure if Marvin Harrison had went to a less friendly QB system he probably would have put up mediocre stats.

4.38

No, he ran a 4.38 in college track. He ran a 4.49 at the combine.

 

[-CE-]

TE Maxx Williams ran 40 times of 4.90 and 4.77 at the combine...

Rotoworld:


Minnesota TE Maxx Williams ran an official forty-yard dash time of 4.78 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
It's an underwhelming time for Williams, who stands just under 6-foot-4 and weighs 249 pounds. His broad jump was a solid-but-unspectacular nine feet, nine inches. Athletically, at least, Williams profiles more closely to Dennis Pitta than Greg Olsen. Williams remains the heavy favorite to be the first tight end drafted, but early whispers of him jumping into the early first round seem unlikely to come to fruition.

 

[JohnnyU]

TE Maxx Williams ran 40 times of 4.90 and 4.77 at the combine...

Rotoworld:


Minnesota TE Maxx Williams ran an official forty-yard dash time of 4.78 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
It's an underwhelming time for Williams, who stands just under 6-foot-4 and weighs 249 pounds. His broad jump was a solid-but-unspectacular nine feet, nine inches. Athletically, at least, Williams profiles more closely to Dennis Pitta than Greg Olsen. Williams remains the heavy favorite to be the first tight end drafted, but early whispers of him jumping into the early first round seem unlikely to come to fruition.

Perhaps Jeese James has leaped Williams as the first TE taken in dynasty leagues.

 

[-CE-]

Jameis Winston has 'weakness' in throwing arm

Florida State QB Jameis Winston required further testing on his shoulder after experiencing "weakness" in his throwing arm at the NFL Combine.
The extent of the concern is not yet known, but ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports Winston underwent an "Electromyography" to analyze the cells in his shoulder. This sort of shoulder weakness is reportedly "often" treatable through therapy. The Electromyography exam will presumably provide NFL teams with some answers about Winston's arm discomfort. It's worth noting that Winston doubles as a college baseball pitcher, and pitchers frequently have arm problems. Winston is widely seen as the favorite to be drafted No. 1 overall by Tampa Bay.

 

[Concept Coop]

In other words:

A lack of comps should be viewed as a filter that the prospect has overcome to reach their draft spot--not a predictor of anything after their draft spot--until someone can show that the NFL is consistantly not accounting for said fitler. And as the NFL is a fast evolving marketplace, good luck.

 

[Zyphros]

Pretty disappointed with Nick O'leary's 40, but he looks dynamite in the drills

 

[Concept Coop]

TE Maxx Williams ran 40 times of 4.90 and 4.77 at the combine...

Rotoworld:


Minnesota TE Maxx Williams ran an official forty-yard dash time of 4.78 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
It's an underwhelming time for Williams, who stands just under 6-foot-4 and weighs 249 pounds. His broad jump was a solid-but-unspectacular nine feet, nine inches. Athletically, at least, Williams profiles more closely to Dennis Pitta than Greg Olsen. Williams remains the heavy favorite to be the first tight end drafted, but early whispers of him jumping into the early first round seem unlikely to come to fruition.

Ugh.

Anything on Walford yet?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

This is true, but it's still the standard. I think we're much better off piggy backing off it and finding the gaps between NFL and fantasy value-- rather than trying to out do it.

I use it as a filter. A yes (metrics), yes (draft) is what I want.

Yes/no and I look for good reasons why the guy might have slipped under the radar (CJ Anderson, Garoppolo, McKinnon, J Charles) and/or to get them cheap (Foles). Actually, this is what I want. The yes/yes guys are expensive.

No/yes and I'm happy to let someone else take the chance (J Hunter, M Ball, C Patterson, K Rudolph, Vereen, Allen) and learn from the ones I was wrong about (Jordy, AJG, Julio).

 

[Concept Coop]

This is true, but it's still the standard. I think we're much better off piggy backing off it and finding the gaps between NFL and fantasy value-- rather than trying to out do it.

I use it as a filter. A yes (metrics), yes (draft) is what I want.

Yes/no and I look for good reasons why the guy might have slipped under the radar (CJ Anderson, Garoppolo, McKinnon, J Charles) and/or to get them cheap (Foles).

No/yes and I'm happy to let someone else take the chance (J Hunter, M Ball, C Patterson, K Rudolph, Vereen, Allen) and learn from the ones I was wrong about (Jordy, AJG, Julio).

As you're taking draft position into account, rather than trying to start from scratch and out do it, I think there could be value in that.

For me personally, I know that I don't have the resources to out do a trillion dollar market place, whose analytics are miles beyond anything I could stumble on to.

I think my time is much better spent trying to find ways in which the current market place doesn't quite match what I'm looking to get out of it. For example, I can see that Tavon Austin was drafted in part due to his return value. As I am not rewarded in return production--how do I account for that? Steady NFL WR2 production might be worth a 2nd round NFL draft pick to NFL teams. But should my investment match that, when safe and steady are less important to me? Was this TE drafted in part for his blocking ability? Did Al Davis make the pick?

If we're going to spend our time trying to better a marketplace, I think we're better trying to do it at a hobby level, format level, or, ideally, an idividual league level.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Penn State TE Jesse James clocked forty times of 4.86 and 4.83 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
He added a highly impressive 10-foot-1 broad jump, which betters those posted by Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski prior to their respective drafts. James is a mammoth 6-foot-7 and 261 pounds with 33-inch arms. A likely post-Combine "riser," James projects to be drafted in the second or third round.

Feb 20 - 1:42 PM

 

[Faust]

NFL Draft Preview 2015: WR Jaelen Strong

 

[Faust]

NFP Prospect Focus: Tre McBride – WR – William and Mary

 

[Faust]

Prospects matched to pros based on measurements

 

[Faust]

2015 NFL Combine: Maxx Williams' 40-yard dash shouldn't change draft grade

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

TFY Draft Insider's reports that rumors have swirled since the Senior Bowl that Nevada QB Cody Fajardo might shift to receiver.
"He’s a sensational athlete but his passing, specifically his accuracy, leaves a lot to be desired," Pauline wrote. "Though there’s been no official word to date it’ll be interesting to see if Fajardo is put through receiver drills at the end of the quarterback practice session." We're on board with a position change. Fajardo, in our estimation, doesn't have the tools to succeed behind center in the NFL. As Pauline notes, the 6-foot-2, 215-pound Fajardo simply isn't accurate enough.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 20 - 3:20 PM

 

[gianmarco]

Prospects matched to pros based on measurements

These are absolutely awful.

They measurements don't even match up. Half of them are rookies or no-name players. And most of them have far better comps than what they are choosing (esp. with the numbers being way off for most).

 

[Faust]

How NFL teams evaluate great receivers with bad quarterbacksExcerpt:

This year, Arizona State receiver Jaelen Strong caught 82 passes for 1,165 yards and 10 touchdowns in an offense split between two quarterbacks in Taylor Kelly and Mike Bercovici who completed just over 60 percent of their passes between them. On tape, Strong often bails out Kelly and Bercovici, expanding his catch radius over time by pure necessity.

Louisville's Devante Parker, one of the highest-ranked receivers in this draft class, had an adjustment of his own to make when the Cardinals were forced to fill the void left by Teddy Bridgewater with Will Gardner, Reggie Bonnafon and freshman Kyle Bolin. Parker missed the first seven games of 2014 with a broken bone in his foot but still finished with 855 yards and five touchdowns in the first year of a new spread-style offense, even though none of Bridgewater's replacements completed more than 58 percent of their passes in 2014.

"I adapted O.K.," Parker told me Thursday. "We had good quarterbacks after Teddy, but they weren't as good as him. You just have to learn your playbook, run your plays and move around."

How does uneven quarterback play affect what NFL teams see in receivers at the top of the draft and how they grade the position?

"Forget about the ball for a minute," said NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock on a recent conference call. "At the combine, what the scouts and the wide receiver coaches and all are looking for—when DeVante Parker gets up to catch a football from a quarterback he's never seen, they don't really care that much about the football. What they want to see is this guy's explosion coming off the line, and how he gets in and out of breaks. Remember, they're running an NFL route tree—three-step, five-step, and seven-step—so that means short, intermediate and deep routes, so you actually get to see a progression of routes from each receiver. So, don't even worry about the football. That's kind of an afterthought. What these guys want to see are movement skills. What kind of movement skills does a big guy have? Does the little guy get in and out of his breaks the way he should? How about his burst off the line of scrimmage? And finally, when the ball does come, are you a natural hands catcher?"

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Georgia Tech WR Darren Waller is amenable to working out as either a WR or a TE.
TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline passes along the report, mentioning that Waller is prepared to work out at either spot at both the combine and Georgia Tech's pro day. It's smart for Waller to take this stance. He was a jumbo receiver in the Yellow Jackets' triple-option offense, but Waller is an extremely raw pure pass catcher. The tools, though, are ridiculous. Measured 6-foot-6 5/8 and 242 pounds at the East-West Shrine game, Waller runs a 4.54 forty.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 20 - 3:56 PM

@TonyPauline 16m

Darren Waller/Georgia Tech told me the Denver Broncos spoke to him about a position switch to tight end.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Auburn RB Cameron Artis-Payne could slide "into the draft’s initial 100 picks" if he shows well at Saturday's pass-catching drills, notes TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.
"Artis-Payne is riding high after a terrific 2014 campaign then a good performance at the Senior Bowl," Pauline wrote. "While he should run in the mid 4.4’s scouts want him to stand out in pass catching drills on Saturday. The results could be the difference of Artis-Payne sliding into the draft’s initial 100 picks." We're surprised by a few different aspects of this dispatch. Firstly, it would be something of an upset if Artis-Payne emerged from one of the deepest RB classes of the past few decades to become a top-100 pick. Secondly, Pauline's 40 prediction is more optimistic that we'd heard in the past. We'd heard the 5-foot-10, 210-pound Artis-Payne runs in the mid 4.5 territory. We'll find out soon.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 20 - 4:24 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Central Michigan WR Titus Davis (knee) has returned to 100-percent health, reports TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.
The Chippewas' star missed significant time early in the season due to a lingering knee injury. Good news, then, that he's returned to prime health, as the 6-foot-1, 190-pound Davis reportedly has a forty in the 4.4s. Over the summer, Pauline graded Davis as a Round 4 prospect, and noted NFL scouts "think highly" of him. Davis caught only one ball for 11 yards in the school's first four games due to injury, but posted 59 catches for 971 yards and 13 scores across the last nine.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 20 - 4:38 PM

 

[Faust]

Mike Mayock: Brandon Scherff will be first O-lineman draftedExcerpts:

Blah TE class highlighted by Minnesota starThis year's tight end class is underwhelming. How underwhelming? The top tight end in the class for Mayock (and almost every analyst) is Minnesota's Maxx Williams, whose dad, Brian, was a longtime NFL offensive lineman. Mayock has Williams -- who measured at 6-3 7/8 and 249 pounds and ran a 4.77 in the 40 -- as a second-rounder. "He is the only tight end I have in the first two rounds," Mayock said. He said Williams is athletic -- albeit not explosive -- and has "really good hands." Williams was clocked in a solid 4.37 seconds in the 20-yard shuttle and had a 34.5-inch vertical jump.

Mayock has Miami's Clive Walford (More: Follow his draft journey) as the No. 2 tight end and noted that there is no clear-cut No. 3 guy at the position. "After that, what's your flavor?" Mayock said, noting that a team's preference at the position -- whether it is looking for a blocker, a pass-catcher or some kind of combination -- would determine their draft board after the top two. Mayock did say Walford (6-4, 251) has a nice combination of size, speed and strength, though Walford's 4.79 clocking in the 40 was mildly disappointing. But Walford did well in the vertical jump, at 35 inches, and in the broad jump, at 120 inches (10 feet).

TE has good hands, but turns in slow timeFlorida State's Nick O'Leary won the Mackey Award as the nation's top college tight end in 2014, but his best 40 time Friday was a 4.93 clocking. Mayock termed that "disappointing," saying he expected O'Leary (6-3, 252) to run in the 4.7/4.75 range. "That's significantly slower than I expected," Mayock said.

As a receiver, O'Leary is advanced; he has good hands -- Mayock calls him a "natural hands catcher" -- and understands routes. But his lack of size means he could struggle as an in-line blocker at the next level, and there are questions about his ability to get open against NFL linebackers and safeties.

 

[Faust]

Phillip Dorsett: Chris Johnson's combine 40 record not on mind

 

[MAC_32]

TE Maxx Williams ran 40 times of 4.90 and 4.77 at the combine...

Rotoworld:

Minnesota TE Maxx Williams ran an official forty-yard dash time of 4.78 at the NFL Scouting Combine.

It's an underwhelming time for Williams, who stands just under 6-foot-4 and weighs 249 pounds. His broad jump was a solid-but-unspectacular nine feet, nine inches. Athletically, at least, Williams profiles more closely to Dennis Pitta than Greg Olsen. Williams remains the heavy favorite to be the first tight end drafted, but early whispers of him jumping into the early first round seem unlikely to come to fruition.

Perhaps Jeese James has leaped Williams as the first TE taken in dynasty leagues.

Heavy amounts of sarcasm.Please.

Please?

 

[JohnnyU]

TE Maxx Williams ran 40 times of 4.90 and 4.77 at the combine...

Rotoworld:

Minnesota TE Maxx Williams ran an official forty-yard dash time of 4.78 at the NFL Scouting Combine.

It's an underwhelming time for Williams, who stands just under 6-foot-4 and weighs 249 pounds. His broad jump was a solid-but-unspectacular nine feet, nine inches. Athletically, at least, Williams profiles more closely to Dennis Pitta than Greg Olsen. Williams remains the heavy favorite to be the first tight end drafted, but early whispers of him jumping into the early first round seem unlikely to come to fruition.

Perhaps Jeese James has leaped Williams as the first TE taken in dynasty leagues.

Heavy amounts of sarcasm.Please.

Please?

Where is Bob Ford when you need him?

 

[EBF]

I don't think the bench press really means much for RBs, but Dyer was the top non-FB in the running back group with 26 reps of 225. Abdullah also high with 24.

 

[EBF]

I wonder why Ben Koyack didn't do the drills today. His production sucked last season and his football output doesn't seem to match his physical gifts, but he's a good athlete and probably could've shined in the testing.

4.78 is disappointing for Maxx Williams. Thought he had the potential to do better. Numbers may keep him out of the first round.

This looks like a pretty sad TE class. The worst one in a while.

 

[MAC_32]

4.78 is disappointing for Maxx Williams. Thought he had the potential to do better. Numbers may keep him out of the first round.

Insanity.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Minnesota TE Maxx Williams said his biggest weakness is a lack of strength.

"Being only 20 years old I know my body isn't fully developed to what it could be," said Williams. "But I feel like my biggest weakness could turn into one of my strengths as I get to 21, 22, and get the experience in the weight room developing my body. I think the sky is the limit -- I think I could play at 250, 255, 260, however my body develops." Williams isn't having the best week so far. Though he was lauded for his interviews, he measured in at 6-foot-4 and 249 pounds and then ran an official 4.78 seconds in the forty-yard dash.

Source: NFL.com
Feb 20 - 7:38 PM

 

[EBF]

4.78 is disappointing for Maxx Williams. Thought he had the potential to do better. Numbers may keep him out of the first round.

Insanity.

First round TEs since 2004, along with their 40 times.

Eric Ebron - 4.56

Tyler Eifert - 4.65

Jermaine Gresham - 4.66

Brandon Pettigrew - 4.80

Dustin Keller - 4.53

Greg Olsen - 4.51

Vernon Davis - 4.38

Marcedes Lewis - 4.80

Heath Miller - ???

Kellen Winslow Jr. - 4.55

Ben Watson - 4.57

DraftScout doesn't have a time for Heath, but I doubt it would've been much better than 4.75. If we conservatively call him a 4.85, the average for these 11 players would still be 4.62. Well above the numbers Maxx posted. The only two guys with times near his 4.78 were Marcedes Lewis and Brandon Pettigrew. So it seems that fewer slow TEs get picked in the first frame, and those who were haven't exactly set the league on fire. The only difference-maker FF type players on this list (Winslow, Davis, Olsen) had very good speed for the position.

 

[MAC_32]

4.78 is disappointing for Maxx Williams. Thought he had the potential to do better. Numbers may keep him out of the first round.

Insanity.

First round TEs since 2004, along with their 40 times.

Eric Ebron - 4.56

Tyler Eifert - 4.65

Jermaine Gresham - 4.66

Brandon Pettigrew - 4.80

Dustin Keller - 4.53

Greg Olsen - 4.51

Vernon Davis - 4.38

Marcedes Lewis - 4.80

Heath Miller - ???

Kellen Winslow Jr. - 4.55

Ben Watson - 4.57

DraftScout doesn't have a time for Heath, but I doubt it would've been much better than 4.75. If we conservatively call him a 4.85, the average for these 11 players would still be 4.62. Well above the numbers Maxx posted. The only two guys with times near his 4.78 were Marcedes Lewis and Brandon Pettigrew. So it seems that fewer slow TEs get picked in the first frame, and those who were haven't exactly set the league on fire. The only difference-maker FF type players on this list (Winslow, Davis, Olsen) had very good speed for the position.

Oh, it might be reality.Still insane though.

Lot of dumb decision makers in the NfL though.

 

[miqws]

2015 Rookie fantasy football mock 1.0:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/20/4x4-rookie-mock-series-v-1-0/

 

[Xue]

4.78 is disappointing for Maxx Williams. Thought he had the potential to do better. Numbers may keep him out of the first round.

Insanity.

First round TEs since 2004, along with their 40 times.

Eric Ebron - 4.56

Tyler Eifert - 4.65

Jermaine Gresham - 4.66

Brandon Pettigrew - 4.80

Dustin Keller - 4.53

Greg Olsen - 4.51

Vernon Davis - 4.38

Marcedes Lewis - 4.80

Heath Miller - ???

Kellen Winslow Jr. - 4.55

Ben Watson - 4.57

DraftScout doesn't have a time for Heath, but I doubt it would've been much better than 4.75. If we conservatively call him a 4.85, the average for these 11 players would still be 4.62. Well above the numbers Maxx posted. The only two guys with times near his 4.78 were Marcedes Lewis and Brandon Pettigrew. So it seems that fewer slow TEs get picked in the first frame, and those who were haven't exactly set the league on fire. The only difference-maker FF type players on this list (Winslow, Davis, Olsen) had very good speed for the position.

Go ahead and draft the James Hannas and Rob Houslers. They're aren't as "athletic" as Maxx Williams when it comes to actually playing football, specifically being a receiver.

 

[Xue]

TE Maxx Williams ran 40 times of 4.90 and 4.77 at the combine...

Rotoworld:


Minnesota TE Maxx Williams ran an official forty-yard dash time of 4.78 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
It's an underwhelming time for Williams, who stands just under 6-foot-4 and weighs 249 pounds. His broad jump was a solid-but-unspectacular nine feet, nine inches. Athletically, at least, Williams profiles more closely to Dennis Pitta than Greg Olsen. Williams remains the heavy favorite to be the first tight end drafted, but early whispers of him jumping into the early first round seem unlikely to come to fruition.

Perhaps Jeese James has leaped Williams as the first TE taken in dynasty leagues.

LOL. People put too much stock into numbers.

 

[Catbird]

It seems like everyone thinks their way is THE right way, but what I think ff shows us is that different people excel with different strategies. EBF is pretty inelastic about BMI, although I think in practice he uses it to exclude many players, but then does a more normal (and thorough) analysis of those remaining. Xue does his own in depth analysis of each player. Coop says to let the teams spend their money and start your analysis from draft order. I remember SOGG saying he thinks its next to impossible to accurately predict guys without an NFL track record so his tendency is to emphasize the newbies less and study the guys with NFL track records to build the best team (or at least that's my recollection). Its hard to look a Xue's record and not find guys he's done an amazing job of icking out, as well as some he's missed on by a mile. EBF may well avoid the Hunters and perhaps Whites others m ight be wasting early picks on, but may also miss the Harrisons and be late on the AJ Greens. Coop will get his share and then some of the good guys the teams properly evaluate and miss where the teams miss.

I think different styles work and yield the best results for different people. If you are good and watching and analyzing guys, I think you use that and have a leg up. If you aren't, no amount of watching and analyzing is going to do you as much good as the draft slots.

If you can't tell yet, I am a mixed plan analyst - I try to look at physical characteristics, skill sets I think translate well, use college production (but try to discount for great college situations - how much of Gordon's success is due to running behind one of the best rushing OLs in the country?), draft order, reading what guys who can better analyze guys than I can have to say and watching tape of the guys I am interested in along with tape from guys slotted similarly. For me, getting a ton of data and working through it to find relevant reasons for distinctions is a strength, so that's what I do. I don't think there is a "best approach" so much as its about finding the approach that works for you and getting as good at that as you can. Then being open to all the helpful thoughts the Pool brings us from each other (and vital, knowing when that 'helpful information' is actually helpful).

 

[Run It Up]

TE Maxx Williams ran 40 times of 4.90 and 4.77 at the combine...

Rotoworld:


Minnesota TE Maxx Williams ran an official forty-yard dash time of 4.78 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
It's an underwhelming time for Williams, who stands just under 6-foot-4 and weighs 249 pounds. His broad jump was a solid-but-unspectacular nine feet, nine inches. Athletically, at least, Williams profiles more closely to Dennis Pitta than Greg Olsen. Williams remains the heavy favorite to be the first tight end drafted, but early whispers of him jumping into the early first round seem unlikely to come to fruition.

Perhaps Jeese James has leaped Williams as the first TE taken in dynasty leagues.

shh, let everyone dismiss him.

 

[MAC_32]

It seems like everyone thinks their way is THE right way, but what I think ff shows us is that different people excel with different strategies. EBF is pretty inelastic about BMI, although I think in practice he uses it to exclude many players, but then does a more normal (and thorough) analysis of those remaining. Xue does his own in depth analysis of each player. Coop says to let the teams spend their money and start your analysis from draft order. I remember SOGG saying he thinks its next to impossible to accurately predict guys without an NFL track record so his tendency is to emphasize the newbies less and study the guys with NFL track records to build the best team (or at least that's my recollection). Its hard to look a Xue's record and not find guys he's done an amazing job of icking out, as well as some he's missed on by a mile. EBF may well avoid the Hunters and perhaps Whites others m ight be wasting early picks on, but may also miss the Harrisons and be late on the AJ Greens. Coop will get his share and then some of the good guys the teams properly evaluate and miss where the teams miss.I think different styles work and yield the best results for different people. If you are good and watching and analyzing guys, I think you use that and have a leg up. If you aren't, no amount of watching and analyzing is going to do you as much good as the draft slots.If you can't tell yet, I am a mixed plan analyst - I try to look at physical characteristics, skill sets I think translate well, use college production (but try to discount for great college situations - how much of Gordon's success is due to running behind one of the best rushing OLs in the country?), draft order, reading what guys who can better analyze guys than I can have to say and watching tape of the guys I am interested in along with tape from guys slotted similarly. For me, getting a ton of data and working through it to find relevant reasons for distinctions is a strength, so that's what I do. I don't think there is a "best approach" so much as its about finding the approach that works for you and getting as good at that as you can. Then being open to all the helpful thoughts the Pool brings us from each other (and vital, knowing when that 'helpful information' is actually helpful).

Watch them play.If they do that well, they're not a dope from the neck up, and they stay healthy then they will do well.

If they also test well then you really want that player.

If they don't test well that's where you will find the value. Ellington and Bridgewater immediately come to mind. If the same thing happens to Maxx then he will be on my team like those two were.

I think the most important thing is to not fall in love with players too early. That's how you get into trouble. Stay open minded, but also realize what 'criticisms' are ridiculous.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Central Michigan RB Thomas Rawls said he was surprised to have been invited to the NFL combine.

In late September, Rawls accepted a plea deal to a charge of attempted larceny after he was arrested for stealing a 62-year old woman's purse at a casino last April. The former Michigan Wolverine didn't see the field much in Ann Arbor, but he excelled at Central Michigan in 2014. "When he found the field for the Chippewas, Rawls flashed NFL skills," wrote CBS Sports' Dane Brugler. "An angry runner, he looks to initiate contact and barrel through bodies with low pad level and center of gravity, making him a chore to bring down. He has the talent to be drafted, but will NFL teams be comfortable with who he is as a person? That's what Rawls is out to prove this week."

Source: CBS Sports
Feb 20 - 8:26 PM

 

[EBF]

For me, getting a ton of data and working through it to find relevant reasons for distinctions is a strength, so that's what I do. I don't think there is a "best approach" so much as its about finding the approach that works for you and getting as good at that as you can. Then being open to all the helpful thoughts the Pool brings us from each other (and vital, knowing when that 'helpful information' is actually helpful).

Yea, I think you should use all of the information available to make the best decisions possible. I might have a reputation as a metrics guy because I often mention measurables, but I didn't draft Allen Robinson and Eric Ebron in most of my leagues just because of combine numbers. It's one variable in a complex equation and when you start talking about it people falsely assume that it's the only variable you consider. Couldn't be further from the truth in my case.

I would say draft position, eyeball test, college production, and workout numbers are all important. Ideally, you'd be able to extract useful information about a player using all of those variables. What I look for are players for whom the variables all tell the same story. For example, Tyler Eifert had good college numbers, good workout numbers, strong film, and a high draft slot. It's easy to get excited about a player like that.

When a guy's story has contradictions, that's when you have to get your hands dirty and start to make some real judgment calls. Look at Bishop Sankey last year. Relatively high draft slot. Mediocre film. Mediocre measurables. Pretty good college production. Do you give him the thumbs up or thumbs down? What about Eddie Lacy the year before? High-ish draft slot. Pretty good film. Disaster workouts. Good college production. Yay or nay? In these situations I've found that the eyeball test often serves me better than the metrics or the stats, but then there are guys whose workout numbers come in and surprise me in a bad way (like Marqise Lee being so light/slow last year). There is no formula to find the perfect balance. That doesn't mean ignoring one of the variables is a wise strategy. If you haven't invested a lot of time looking at metrics and developing a frame of reference there then you're doing yourself a disservice.

 

[EBF]

This is true, but it's still the standard. I think we're much better off piggy backing off it and finding the gaps between NFL and fantasy value-- rather than trying to out do it.
The market knew AJ Green didn't fit the mold when it made him a premium asset. It still made him a premium asset. What value was a BMI study to owners picking between Green, Julio and Ingram?

When players who don't fit the mold are still valued as premium assets (Green/Beckham)--they don't belong in a group of players who didn't fit the mold and weren't valued as premium assets.

If Tevin Coleman, for example, goes in the 2nd round it is a lot more sound to value him as a random 2nd rounder than a random RB with X BMI.

I think draft position is an important variable, but it's February right now and none of these players have been drafted yet. It's a moot point to talk about draft position right now with the 2015 class because we don't know where any of them will go. Once the draft happens, rookie draft ADP will mirror it pretty closely like it always does. There are minimal opportunities to exploit that variable when most rookie drafts already tend to mirror the NFL draft (i.e. the high picks in the NFL draft tend to be the high picks in rookie drafts). Minor exceptions happen occasionally when opportunity discounts or unfamiliarity cause a guy to be slotted a lot lower in FF than where he'd go based solely on his position/NFL draft slot (like with Bernard Pierce, Knile Davis, Jeremy Hill, and Jerick McKinnon). There are only a couple of those per year though.

I would be careful about citing Odell Beckham as a combine ugly ducking. His weight/height ratio is just about average for a first round WR. Maybe slightly below average, but not in a danger zone. On top of that, he ran 4.38, had a 38.5" vertical, a solid broad jump, and a rare three cone time. Apart from his height, he basically tested exactly how you would expect a strong first round WR to test. Nothing to nitpick there really. Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, and Brandin Cooks also had strong numbers overall. Kelvin Benjamin was probably the most suspect of last year's first round WR prospects on paper due to his pitiful 40/vertical/broad/three cone.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Baylor QB Bryce Petty "is one of the players who can help himself the most in Indy," notes NFL Media senior analyst Gil Brandt.

"The NFL is desperate for quarterbacks, and this guy started two years for a pretty good Baylor team -- and yet, he's not even mentioned as a possibility in the first three rounds," Brandt wrote. "Given that the Bears used the shotgun and a very small playbook, Petty will have to show he can take snaps under center and be accurate on three-, five- and seven-step drops. I think we'll see he's improved since the Senior Bowl and throw well." TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline recently reported that NFL doctors at the combine "will closely inspect" Petty's back, an injury he sustained in September that many think was more severe than was let on. An AFC North area scout told NFL.com during the season: "My grade is a projection based on what I think he can do rather than what he did this year. I think his back was a bigger problem for him than people realize."

Source: NFL.com
Feb 20 - 8:41 PM

 

[tdmills]

This is true, but it's still the standard. I think we're much better off piggy backing off it and finding the gaps between NFL and fantasy value-- rather than trying to out do it.

The market knew AJ Green didn't fit the mold when it made him a premium asset. It still made him a premium asset. What value was a BMI study to owners picking between Green, Julio and Ingram?

When players who don't fit the mold are still valued as premium assets (Green/Beckham)--they don't belong in a group of players who didn't fit the mold and weren't valued as premium assets.

If Tevin Coleman, for example, goes in the 2nd round it is a lot more sound to value him as a random 2nd rounder than a random RB with X BMI.

Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, and Brandin Cooks also had strong numbers overall. Kelvin Benjamin was probably the most suspect of last year's first round WR prospects on paper due to his pitiful 40/vertical/broad/three cone.

Watkins ran a 4.43 which is good. But had a 4.34 short shuttle (really bad), 34 inch vertical (below average), 10'6" (good), 6.95 3 cone (average). Not strong numbers overall.

 

[Donnybrook]

2015 Rookie fantasy football mock 1.0:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/20/4x4-rookie-mock-series-v-1-0/

I thought Tre Mcbride would crack the top 48.

 

[Xue]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RosterWatch/status/568897304406523905

We asked Kevin White his reasoning for choosing not to compete at the Senior Bowl and he said talk to his agent smh pic.twitter.com/zF4mfEurrt

 

[saintfool]

2015 Rookie fantasy football mock 1.0:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/02/20/4x4-rookie-mock-series-v-1-0/

I thought Tre Mcbride would crack the top 48.

SHHHHHHHH! for all the hype around breshaud lately, i want mcbride to be a little secret.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Nelson Agholor - WR - Trojans

USC WR Nelson Agholor dislocated his finger during Combine catching drills and will miss the remainder of the event.

Agholor posted a 4.44 "unofficial" forty with a 1.53 10 yard split. We are bummed Agholor won't be going through the 3-cone or 20 yard short shuttle, since he might have posted some of the best times in those areas. Agholor wins with a considerable amount of quickness and burst before and after the catch.

Source: Patrick Crawley on Twitter

Feb 21 - 11:12 AM