[Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects (3 Viewers)

[Alex P Keaton]

EBF,

The truth is that if you decided this class is a bust based on the combine 40 yd dash figures, then you really need to reevaluate your approach.

I don't and never have. No point arguing against that straw man. Allen Robinson was my favorite second tier WR in last year's draft and he wasn't anything incredible at the combine. Good jumps, but slow in the 40. I don't draft based solely on workouts. I look at all the variables.

Guess I'm just surprised to see the FBG community - with so many self proclaimed amateur draftniks - overly focused on 40 times and ignoring all the other data points.

Maybe they're not "ignoring all the other data points" but just interpreting them differently. One of the important things to understand about Gordon is that he's not a very big back. People will cite his 215 pound weight as a plus, but it's on a 6' 05/8" frame. That's not a high weight for a RB at that height. It's a 28.7 BMI. In the last decade, only six backs with a lower BMI score have been drafted in the first round. Here are those players along with their combine/pro day 40 time:

Jahvid Best 28.5 - 4.34

Reggie Bush 28.3 - 4.37

Adrian Peterson 28.3 - 4.40

Darren McFadden 27.7 - 4.33

CJ Spiller 27.7 - 4.27

Chris Johnson 27.5 - 4.24

What you should notice is that all of these guys ran 4.40 or better. To make it as a RB in the NFL at this size, the player needs elite movement and speed. That makes Gordon's 4.52 especially damaging. Of 27 first round RBs in the past ~10 years, only five have run that slow or worse and all of them were big backs (Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Mark Ingram, Beanie Wells, Cedric Benson). Of the 12 backs to check in with a weight of 215 or fewer pounds, only one ran a 40 time above 4.50 (Mark Ingram at 4.62). The next cluster is guys like Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, and Felix Jones who ran in the mid 4.4 range between a 29.6-30 BMI. Even if Gordon's official time is adjusted to a mid 4.4, he'll still come off looking a bit worse than these guys in terms of this variable because of his lean body type. He's simply not very fast for a RB of his body type. To the point where no one that light has been successful at the position in the past 10 years. If you're ready to totally ignore that information then that's your call, but to me it throws up a bit of a red flag. If you add it to other factors like merely "good" but not great film (IMO) and a friendly scheme that has been known to inflate mediocre RB production (Montee Ball, John Clay), suddenly you have a story that suggests Gordon might be more of a "maybe" than a "probably" in terms of his NFL success.

As for the rest of his workout, it was solid without being amazing. 35" is fine in the vertical. Slightly below average for a first round back. 10'5" is good in the broad jump. Above average for a first round back. I can't tell you much about the shuttle times because I generally don't use them in my analysis. Overall, he didn't bomb the combine. However, he didn't ace it either. There's enough here to warrant some skepticism if you were already leaning that way. On the other hand, if you already had bought in completely then I wouldn't expect any of this to sway your opinion.

Thanks for the reply EBF. My comment wasn't directed specifically at you, but rather the broader community. Additionally, my confusion isn't focused on the standard FBG view of Gordon's results, but rather at the almost singular focus on the 40 times of ALL the RBs at this year's combine. Why just the 40?As an example, using your post, I find shuttle times to be a more more logical predictor of future RB success than 40 times. I can also see the logic behind vertical and broad jump as raw measures of explosiveness. It just continues to baffle me that we have pages of discussion about 40 times.....and then a guy posts interesting observations on another metric, and we get crickets.

 

[jurb26]

As an example, using your post, I find shuttle times to be a more more logical predictor of future RB success than 40 times. I can also see the logic behind vertical and broad jump as raw measures of explosiveness. It just continues to baffle me that we have pages of discussion about 40 times.....and then a guy posts interesting observations on another metric, and we get crickets.

It's pretty baffling that he provided that long winded of a response and it ignores the relevance or mention of Gordon's near historic 60 yd shuttle. Especially when it's the most relevant drill to correspond with basically everyone has been saying about Gordon for months.

 

[Pipes]

EBF,

The truth is that if you decided this class is a bust based on the combine 40 yd dash figures, then you really need to reevaluate your approach.

I don't and never have. No point arguing against that straw man. Allen Robinson was my favorite second tier WR in last year's draft and he wasn't anything incredible at the combine. Good jumps, but slow in the 40. I don't draft based solely on workouts. I look at all the variables.

Guess I'm just surprised to see the FBG community - with so many self proclaimed amateur draftniks - overly focused on 40 times and ignoring all the other data points.

Maybe they're not "ignoring all the other data points" but just interpreting them differently. One of the important things to understand about Gordon is that he's not a very big back. People will cite his 215 pound weight as a plus, but it's on a 6' 05/8" frame. That's not a high weight for a RB at that height. It's a 28.7 BMI. In the last decade, only six backs with a lower BMI score have been drafted in the first round. Here are those players along with their combine/pro day 40 time:

Jahvid Best 28.5 - 4.34

Reggie Bush 28.3 - 4.37

Adrian Peterson 28.3 - 4.40

Darren McFadden 27.7 - 4.33

CJ Spiller 27.7 - 4.27

Chris Johnson 27.5 - 4.24

What you should notice is that all of these guys ran 4.40 or better. To make it as a RB in the NFL at this size, the player needs elite movement and speed. That makes Gordon's 4.52 especially damaging. Of 27 first round RBs in the past ~10 years, only five have run that slow or worse and all of them were big backs (Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Mark Ingram, Beanie Wells, Cedric Benson). Of the 12 backs to check in with a weight of 215 or fewer pounds, only one ran a 40 time above 4.50 (Mark Ingram at 4.62). The next cluster is guys like Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, and Felix Jones who ran in the mid 4.4 range between a 29.6-30 BMI. Even if Gordon's official time is adjusted to a mid 4.4, he'll still come off looking a bit worse than these guys in terms of this variable because of his lean body type. He's simply not very fast for a RB of his body type. To the point where no one that light has been successful at the position in the past 10 years. If you're ready to totally ignore that information then that's your call, but to me it throws up a bit of a red flag. If you add it to other factors like merely "good" but not great film (IMO) and a friendly scheme that has been known to inflate mediocre RB production (Montee Ball, John Clay), suddenly you have a story that suggests Gordon might be more of a "maybe" than a "probably" in terms of his NFL success.

As for the rest of his workout, it was solid without being amazing. 35" is fine in the vertical. Slightly below average for a first round back. 10'5" is good in the broad jump. Above average for a first round back. I can't tell you much about the shuttle times because I generally don't use them in my analysis. Overall, he didn't bomb the combine. However, he didn't ace it either. There's enough here to warrant some skepticism if you were already leaning that way. On the other hand, if you already had bought in completely then I wouldn't expect any of this to sway your opinion.

Your opinion Is the Gordon only has good and not great film. He had one of the best season a RB has ever had in college football. Yes WI has a run friendly offense and you mentioned Clay and Ball. Those guys ran behind a bunch of NFL quality lineman. Gordon didn't. WI offensive line was not nearly as good as years past. Havenstein was there best lineman last year and he's likely a day 3 pick this year. Also WI had a terrible, and I'm not overstating that, terrible passing game this year. Gordon was facing stacked fronts all year long and still put up ridiculous numbers. While his numbers may not be ideal to the stat nerds ( except his 60 yard shuttle which is being ignored) I don't see how anyone thinks Gordon doesn't pass the eyeball test. Anyways I don't see you ever changing your opinion on him but I think you are wrong here. I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

As an example, using your post, I find shuttle times to be a more more logical predictor of future RB success than 40 times. I can also see the logic behind vertical and broad jump as raw measures of explosiveness. It just continues to baffle me that we have pages of discussion about 40 times.....and then a guy posts interesting observations on another metric, and we get crickets.

It's pretty baffling that he provided that long winded of a response and it ignores the relevance or mention of Gordon's near historic 60 yd shuttle. Especially when it's the most relevant drill to correspond with basically everyone has been saying about Gordon for months.

You did a much more concise job of typing what I meant. Thx!Yeah, I literally don't get it.

 

[gianmarco]

EBF,

The truth is that if you decided this class is a bust based on the combine 40 yd dash figures, then you really need to reevaluate your approach.

I don't and never have. No point arguing against that straw man. Allen Robinson was my favorite second tier WR in last year's draft and he wasn't anything incredible at the combine. Good jumps, but slow in the 40. I don't draft based solely on workouts. I look at all the variables.

Guess I'm just surprised to see the FBG community - with so many self proclaimed amateur draftniks - overly focused on 40 times and ignoring all the other data points.

Maybe they're not "ignoring all the other data points" but just interpreting them differently. One of the important things to understand about Gordon is that he's not a very big back. People will cite his 215 pound weight as a plus, but it's on a 6' 05/8" frame. That's not a high weight for a RB at that height. It's a 28.7 BMI. In the last decade, only six backs with a lower BMI score have been drafted in the first round. Here are those players along with their combine/pro day 40 time:

Jahvid Best 28.5 - 4.34

Reggie Bush 28.3 - 4.37

Adrian Peterson 28.3 - 4.40

Darren McFadden 27.7 - 4.33

CJ Spiller 27.7 - 4.27

Chris Johnson 27.5 - 4.24

What you should notice is that all of these guys ran 4.40 or better. To make it as a RB in the NFL at this size, the player needs elite movement and speed. That makes Gordon's 4.52 especially damaging. Of 27 first round RBs in the past ~10 years, only five have run that slow or worse and all of them were big backs (Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Mark Ingram, Beanie Wells, Cedric Benson). Of the 12 backs to check in with a weight of 215 or fewer pounds, only one ran a 40 time above 4.50 (Mark Ingram at 4.62). The next cluster is guys like Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, and Felix Jones who ran in the mid 4.4 range between a 29.6-30 BMI. Even if Gordon's official time is adjusted to a mid 4.4, he'll still come off looking a bit worse than these guys in terms of this variable because of his lean body type. He's simply not very fast for a RB of his body type. To the point where no one that light has been successful at the position in the past 10 years. If you're ready to totally ignore that information then that's your call, but to me it throws up a bit of a red flag. If you add it to other factors like merely "good" but not great film (IMO) and a friendly scheme that has been known to inflate mediocre RB production (Montee Ball, John Clay), suddenly you have a story that suggests Gordon might be more of a "maybe" than a "probably" in terms of his NFL success.

As for the rest of his workout, it was solid without being amazing. 35" is fine in the vertical. Slightly below average for a first round back. 10'5" is good in the broad jump. Above average for a first round back. I can't tell you much about the shuttle times because I generally don't use them in my analysis. Overall, he didn't bomb the combine. However, he didn't ace it either. There's enough here to warrant some skepticism if you were already leaning that way. On the other hand, if you already had bought in completely then I wouldn't expect any of this to sway your opinion.

Your opinion Is the Gordon only has good and not great film. He had one of the best season a RB has ever had in college football. Yes WI has a run friendly offense and you mentioned Clay and Ball. Those guys ran behind a bunch of NFL quality lineman. Gordon didn't. WI offensive line was not nearly as good as years past. Havenstein was there best lineman last year and he's likely a day 3 pick this year. Also WI had a terrible, and I'm not overstating that, terrible passing game this year. Gordon was facing stacked fronts all year long and still put up ridiculous numbers. While his numbers may not be ideal to the stat nerds ( except his 60 yard shuttle which is being ignored) I don't see how anyone thinks Gordon doesn't pass the eyeball test. Anyways I don't see you ever changing your opinion on him but I think you are wrong here. I guess we will have to wait and see.

You can also add the fact that Gordon averaged over 1 ypc more than his teammate, Corey Clement, who is considered a top prospect in his upcoming class. Same line, same passing game, better BMI, but outdone by the "slower" Gordon.

 

[tdmills]

EBF,

The truth is that if you decided this class is a bust based on the combine 40 yd dash figures, then you really need to reevaluate your approach.

I don't and never have. No point arguing against that straw man. Allen Robinson was my favorite second tier WR in last year's draft and he wasn't anything incredible at the combine. Good jumps, but slow in the 40. I don't draft based solely on workouts. I look at all the variables.

Guess I'm just surprised to see the FBG community - with so many self proclaimed amateur draftniks - overly focused on 40 times and ignoring all the other data points.

Maybe they're not "ignoring all the other data points" but just interpreting them differently. One of the important things to understand about Gordon is that he's not a very big back. People will cite his 215 pound weight as a plus, but it's on a 6' 05/8" frame. That's not a high weight for a RB at that height. It's a 28.7 BMI. In the last decade, only six backs with a lower BMI score have been drafted in the first round. Here are those players along with their combine/pro day 40 time:

Jahvid Best 28.5 - 4.34

Reggie Bush 28.3 - 4.37

Adrian Peterson 28.3 - 4.40

Darren McFadden 27.7 - 4.33

CJ Spiller 27.7 - 4.27

Chris Johnson 27.5 - 4.24

What you should notice is that all of these guys ran 4.40 or better. To make it as a RB in the NFL at this size, the player needs elite movement and speed. That makes Gordon's 4.52 especially damaging. Of 27 first round RBs in the past ~10 years, only five have run that slow or worse and all of them were big backs (Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Mark Ingram, Beanie Wells, Cedric Benson). Of the 12 backs to check in with a weight of 215 or fewer pounds, only one ran a 40 time above 4.50 (Mark Ingram at 4.62). The next cluster is guys like Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, and Felix Jones who ran in the mid 4.4 range between a 29.6-30 BMI. Even if Gordon's official time is adjusted to a mid 4.4, he'll still come off looking a bit worse than these guys in terms of this variable because of his lean body type. He's simply not very fast for a RB of his body type. To the point where no one that light has been successful at the position in the past 10 years. If you're ready to totally ignore that information then that's your call, but to me it throws up a bit of a red flag. If you add it to other factors like merely "good" but not great film (IMO) and a friendly scheme that has been known to inflate mediocre RB production (Montee Ball, John Clay), suddenly you have a story that suggests Gordon might be more of a "maybe" than a "probably" in terms of his NFL success.

As for the rest of his workout, it was solid without being amazing. 35" is fine in the vertical. Slightly below average for a first round back. 10'5" is good in the broad jump. Above average for a first round back. I can't tell you much about the shuttle times because I generally don't use them in my analysis. Overall, he didn't bomb the combine. However, he didn't ace it either. There's enough here to warrant some skepticism if you were already leaning that way. On the other hand, if you already had bought in completely then I wouldn't expect any of this to sway your opinion.

Your opinion Is the Gordon only has good and not great film. He had one of the best season a RB has ever had in college football. Yes WI has a run friendly offense and you mentioned Clay and Ball. Those guys ran behind a bunch of NFL quality lineman. Gordon didn't. WI offensive line was not nearly as good as years past. Havenstein was there best lineman last year and he's likely a day 3 pick this year. Also WI had a terrible, and I'm not overstating that, terrible passing game this year. Gordon was facing stacked fronts all year long and still put up ridiculous numbers. While his numbers may not be ideal to the stat nerds ( except his 60 yard shuttle which is being ignored) I don't see how anyone thinks Gordon doesn't pass the eyeball test. Anyways I don't see you ever changing your opinion on him but I think you are wrong here. I guess we will have to wait and see.

How about the fact that those "run friendly" schemes were mostly with Barry Alvarez. Brett Bielema tried, but wasn't as good as Alvarez. In fact at one point Bielema had to fire his OL coach and promote his GA to OL coach. Bielema started 17-1 at Wisconsin, ended 51-23. Gary Anderson isn't even from the Wisconsin lineage....but it's still that same run friendly scheme from Alvarez's time?

 

[gianmarco]

EBF,

The truth is that if you decided this class is a bust based on the combine 40 yd dash figures, then you really need to reevaluate your approach.

I don't and never have. No point arguing against that straw man. Allen Robinson was my favorite second tier WR in last year's draft and he wasn't anything incredible at the combine. Good jumps, but slow in the 40. I don't draft based solely on workouts. I look at all the variables.

Guess I'm just surprised to see the FBG community - with so many self proclaimed amateur draftniks - overly focused on 40 times and ignoring all the other data points.

Maybe they're not "ignoring all the other data points" but just interpreting them differently. One of the important things to understand about Gordon is that he's not a very big back. People will cite his 215 pound weight as a plus, but it's on a 6' 05/8" frame. That's not a high weight for a RB at that height. It's a 28.7 BMI. In the last decade, only six backs with a lower BMI score have been drafted in the first round. Here are those players along with their combine/pro day 40 time:

Jahvid Best 28.5 - 4.34

Reggie Bush 28.3 - 4.37

Adrian Peterson 28.3 - 4.40

Darren McFadden 27.7 - 4.33

CJ Spiller 27.7 - 4.27

Chris Johnson 27.5 - 4.24

What you should notice is that all of these guys ran 4.40 or better. To make it as a RB in the NFL at this size, the player needs elite movement and speed. That makes Gordon's 4.52 especially damaging. Of 27 first round RBs in the past ~10 years, only five have run that slow or worse and all of them were big backs (Steven Jackson, Chris Perry, Mark Ingram, Beanie Wells, Cedric Benson). Of the 12 backs to check in with a weight of 215 or fewer pounds, only one ran a 40 time above 4.50 (Mark Ingram at 4.62). The next cluster is guys like Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, and Felix Jones who ran in the mid 4.4 range between a 29.6-30 BMI. Even if Gordon's official time is adjusted to a mid 4.4, he'll still come off looking a bit worse than these guys in terms of this variable because of his lean body type. He's simply not very fast for a RB of his body type. To the point where no one that light has been successful at the position in the past 10 years. If you're ready to totally ignore that information then that's your call, but to me it throws up a bit of a red flag. If you add it to other factors like merely "good" but not great film (IMO) and a friendly scheme that has been known to inflate mediocre RB production (Montee Ball, John Clay), suddenly you have a story that suggests Gordon might be more of a "maybe" than a "probably" in terms of his NFL success.

As for the rest of his workout, it was solid without being amazing. 35" is fine in the vertical. Slightly below average for a first round back. 10'5" is good in the broad jump. Above average for a first round back. I can't tell you much about the shuttle times because I generally don't use them in my analysis. Overall, he didn't bomb the combine. However, he didn't ace it either. There's enough here to warrant some skepticism if you were already leaning that way. On the other hand, if you already had bought in completely then I wouldn't expect any of this to sway your opinion.

2 serious questions:

1). If Gordon had run a 4.4 yesterday, how high do you think he would have been drafted as a result? Do you think he would have gone in the top half of the 1st round if he ran a blazing 40?

2). If Gordon is taken in the 1st round DESPITE his "slow" 40, especially given his small BMI, do you view that as a positive? In other words, if RBs historically need very good 40 times unless they are very big, then it would stand to reason that Gordon excels at something else (tape, drills, his feet, burst, etc) enough to warrant being taken in the 1st ESPECIALLY when RBs have been devalued of late by the NFL. Would you agree with that statement? If not, why not?

 

[Xue]

Melvin Gordon will become an anomaly, an outlier. He is and will be so good, despite "mediocre" measurables.

It's puzzling to see EBF all in on Kevin White after yesterday, but still hesitant on Gordon. Like you said, Gordon didn't bomb it. And the tape makes up for it because its so good. While Kevin White's tape doesn't match his measurables. Shouldn't there be more questions for White?

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

NFL Media analyst Mike Mayock said Baylor QB Bryce Petty will be more than a one-year project if an NFL club wants to turn him into a starter.
Mayock was impressed by Petty's showing on Saturday, particularly with how the ball was jumping off of the Baylor prospect's hand. That said, the analyst believes it will take patience to develop Petty because the Bears' signal-caller doesn't have experience in a pro-style offense and will have to re-conceptualize his work inside the pocket amidst the transition.

Source: NFL.com
Feb 22 - 2:45 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

The Chiefs are "very high on" East Carolina WR Justin Hardy, reports TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.
Coming off a mediocre combine, and entering alongside an extremely strong WR class, Hardy may come at a discount in April. The 6-foot, 188-pounder posted a 9-foot-6 broad jump -- indicating his athletic explosion is lacking -- and a mediocre 4.56 forty. All of that said, Hardy's game is predicated on crisp routes and agility out of the slot, skills that Kansas City's offense could absolutely use. "Hardy’s route running skills, ability to separate in underneath coverage and dependable hands would fit a hole in the Chiefs offense," Pauline wrote.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 22 - 2:09 PM

 

[EBF]

2 serious questions:

1). If Gordon had run a 4.4 yesterday, how high do you think he would have been drafted as a result? Do you think he would have gone in the top half of the 1st round if he ran a blazing 40?

2). If Gordon is taken in the 1st round DESPITE his "slow" 40, especially given his small BMI, do you view that as a positive? In other words, if RBs historically need very good 40 times unless they are very big, then it would stand to reason that Gordon excels at something else (tape, drills, his feet, burst, etc) enough to warrant being taken in the 1st ESPECIALLY when RBs have been devalued of late by the NFL. Would you agree with that statement? If not, why not?

I can't say where he'll be drafted. That's not for me to decide. Maybe he'll go top 15 even despite his time. Maybe he'll fall out of the first round altogether. Mocks give you hints, but you never really know until you know. What's clear is that he doesn't fit the pattern of the type of backs the league has typically picked in the first round. A faster 40 time and/or a lower height/higher weight would've brought him closer to the established archetypes.

As for question #2, there are a couple ways you can look at that. You can say, "Well if they're still willing to draft him high despite his bad body type/40 combination then they must love his film." The other way you can look at that is, "Well if they're still willing to draft him high despite his bad body type/40 combination then they're making a mistake." Teams make fundamental mistakes all the time. Bishop Sankey was in a "dead zone" as a power/speed tweener last season and the Titans still took him as the first RB in the draft. You could've said that if they felt comfortable taking him there then it "stands to reason that he excels at something" else. Or maybe they just blew it because they weren't looking at the right data.

Likewise, if someone feels comfortable investing a top 32 pick on Gordon, that can mean a lot of things. It can mean he's so good that he's a great prospect even despite his atypical game. Or it can simply mean that one team made a bad evaluation and a stupid pick. We won't know for sure until a couple years after the fact. Personally, I think his film is just "good" and not great. I don't think it's impossible that he'll be very good. On the other hand, I'm not going to pay market price for him because there are other players in the same ADP range who I'm more comfortable with.

 

[EBF]

It's puzzling to see EBF all in on Kevin White after yesterday, but still hesitant on Gordon. Like you said, Gordon didn't bomb it. And the tape makes up for it because its so good. While Kevin White's tape doesn't match his measurables. Shouldn't there be more questions for White?

You're making two big assumptions there that aren't necessarily objective truths.

1. Gordon's tape is so good that it makes up for his mediocre measurables.

2. Kevin White's tape doesn't match his measurables.

I don't know that I agree with either of those points, so the whole argument kind of crumbles.

 

[Faust]

Fastest combine receiver played at now-defunct football program

 

[Faust]

Player threads (so far) - let me know if I have overlooked any others:

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Dynasty: Oregon QB Marcus Mariota

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*** TJ Yeldon (2015 Draft Eligible) Bandwagon ***

[Dynasty] Todd Gurley

The Ameer Abdullah Bandwagon

All aboard the J Train - Jay Ajayi

Dynasty Duke Johnson Miami

Melvin Gordon to return to school

***Official Melvin "Flash" Gordon*** Thread of Love

2015 Running back class: Special? Or are we trying to force the issue?

Gordon and Gurley: Two of the best? Or two of the best in a long time?

Amari Cooper v Kevin White - Dynasty

Dynasty: Breshad Perriman, UCF

Dynasty: Kevin White, West Virginia

Dynasty: Sammie Coates Auburn

Dorial Green-Beckham

Dynasty: Amari Cooper, Alabama

Kenny Bell

Dynasty: DeVante Parker Louisville

Dynasty: Jaelen Strong Arizona State

Dynasty: Chris Conley, University of GeorgiaDynasty: Devin Funchess, Michigan

 

[Xue]

It's puzzling to see EBF all in on Kevin White after yesterday, but still hesitant on Gordon. Like you said, Gordon didn't bomb it. And the tape makes up for it because its so good. While Kevin White's tape doesn't match his measurables. Shouldn't there be more questions for White?

You're making two big assumptions there that aren't necessarily objective truths.

1. Gordon's tape is so good that it makes up for his mediocre measurables.

2. Kevin White's tape doesn't match his measurables.

I don't know that I agree with either of those points, so the whole argument kind of crumbles.

Kevin White doesn't show 4.35 speed on tape. Is this true or not? Do you agree or deny this statement? This argument isn't about objectivity. It's about logic.

When you say White is clearly the 1.01, that's quite a definitive and objective statement even though its as subjective as mine.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Hall of Fame RB and NFL Network combine on-field broadcast analyst Marshall Faulk wasn't concerned by Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon's forty times of 4.52 and 4.53.
"He has enough speed -- he can break the long run," Faulk said. Some may have been disappointed in MGII's times, but they have no reason to be, as the 6-foot-1, 215-pounder clocked some of the best numbers in this year's RB class. Perhaps all those comparisons to Jamaal Charles had some expecting a similar mid-4.3s score. Gordon, the favorite to be the first running back off the board, has big hands (9 3/4").

Source: NFL.com
Feb 22 - 12:31 AM

 

[gianmarco]

2 serious questions:

1). If Gordon had run a 4.4 yesterday, how high do you think he would have been drafted as a result? Do you think he would have gone in the top half of the 1st round if he ran a blazing 40?

2). If Gordon is taken in the 1st round DESPITE his "slow" 40, especially given his small BMI, do you view that as a positive? In other words, if RBs historically need very good 40 times unless they are very big, then it would stand to reason that Gordon excels at something else (tape, drills, his feet, burst, etc) enough to warrant being taken in the 1st ESPECIALLY when RBs have been devalued of late by the NFL. Would you agree with that statement? If not, why not?

I can't say where he'll be drafted. That's not for me to decide. Maybe he'll go top 15 even despite his time. Maybe he'll fall out of the first round altogether. Mocks give you hints, but you never really know until you know. What's clear is that he doesn't fit the pattern of the type of backs the league has typically picked in the first round. A faster 40 time and/or a lower height/higher weight would've brought him closer to the established archetypes.

As for question #2, there are a couple ways you can look at that. You can say, "Well if they're still willing to draft him high despite his bad body type/40 combination then they must love his film." The other way you can look at that is, "Well if they're still willing to draft him high despite his bad body type/40 combination then they're making a mistake." Teams make fundamental mistakes all the time. Bishop Sankey was in a "dead zone" as a power/speed tweener last season and the Titans still took him as the first RB in the draft. You could've said that if they felt comfortable taking him there then it "stands to reason that he excels at something" else. Or maybe they just blew it because they weren't looking at the right data.

Likewise, if someone feels comfortable investing a top 32 pick on Gordon, that can mean a lot of things. It can mean he's so good that he's a great prospect even despite his atypical game. Or it can simply mean that one team made a bad evaluation and a stupid pick. We won't know for sure until a couple years after the fact. Personally, I think his film is just "good" and not great. I don't think it's impossible that he'll be very good. On the other hand, I'm not going to pay market price for him because there are other players in the same ADP range who I'm more comfortable with.

Now you're running around in circles. Of course teams can make a bad pick. But bad teams have been picking in the 1st round every year and they've never made a "bad" pick by taking someone of Gordon's size with such a "slow" speed based on your post. So, if that happens, would you agree that it's a positive and that that team's particular evaluation of him sees something that is special about him even if YOU don't see it?

Just because teams make fundamental mistakes, they generally get it much more right than any other system. And since many of us trust that system (even you said it yourself multiple times that a player needs to be vetted by the draft), then to try and argue that the system fails in the particular instance on a player you don't seem to like because they made a mistake seems pretty darn biased.

I'm kind of glad Gordon didn't run a blazing 40. If a team is STILL willing to invest highly in him (particularly late in the 1st which is populated by mostly well run organizations) DESPITE the low 40, then what I and other are seeing on tape fits. If not, then it will certainly be a cause for concern if he falls in the draft. I'm willing to adjust my thoughts on him based on where he goes in the draft. I doubt you will because your mind seems made up already about him even though you like to talk about how the draft does a good job in vetting prospects, but who knows.....

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Duke WR Jamison Crowder logged forty times of 4.56 and 4.58 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
We aren't surprised or let down by these numbers. The 5-foot-8, 185-pound prospect has poor measurements all around -- with 30 3/8-inch arms and 8 3/4-inch hands -- but is a smart slot receiver with joystick agility who could be an elite NFL return man. The Blue Devils' prospect has drawn comparisons to Brandin Cooks, Antonio Brown and T.Y. Hilton.

Feb 21 - 11:33 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Georgia Tech WR Darren Waller posted 4.46 and 4.54 forty times at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Checking in at 6-foot-6, 238 pounds, this athletic freak was expected to scorch the Indy turf and didn't disappoint. Waller finds himself in a similar predicament to Devin Funchess, though they aren't similar prospects; Waller is bigger and faster, but far more unpolished. Like Funchess, Waller doesn't really have a position. Waller's size and speed could make him a dangerous outside weapon, but he's unrefined and needs a ton of work as a receiver. He's a good blocker for a receiver, but blocking as an NFL tight end is quite different than pushing around ACC cornerbacks. Waller is a high-upside Day 3 lottery ticket.

Feb 21 - 11:04 PM

 

[tdmills]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=703612&hl=

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=676867&hl=

Looks like I did pretty well in the past, so you can base it off of that if you have to get defensive and create some type of measuring stick.

Football is played on the field with pads on, not on a track in tights. The combine is a tool to use in evaluations, but it's 20% of the formula that is revealed to the public. 70% tape, 20% combine(part of this is accurate sizes too), 10% statistics.

Apparently we have different definitions of "pretty well". I'm not saying I'd do any better, but 2013. :X

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=673126&hl=

Here's the only comparison i've seen in the SP, i'll let you judge.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

William & Mary senior WR Tre McBride is a "Pierre Garcon-like player" who "has the tape that could land him in the top-100 and his combine performance won't hurt that prediction," wrote CBS Sports' Dane Brugler.
"He ran an unofficial 4.41 in the 40-yard dash [at the combine] and looked outstanding catching the ball with smooth routes and above average body control," Brugler wrote. "McBride gathers himself so effortlessly in his route breaks, showing off natural hands and overall receiver traits." NFL Media draft analyst Lance Zierlein compares the William & Mary star's skill-set to Patriots' WR Brandon LaFell. McBride posted 64 receptions for 809 yards and four touchdowns last season.

Source: CBS Sports
Feb 22 - 1:15 AM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Ohio State WR Devin Smith ran forty times of 4.42 and 4.47 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
We think these disappointing times -- Smith had reportedly run a 4.33 forty in the past, was hoping to clock in the 4.3s, and had "a chance to run in the 4.2 range," according to ESPN's Todd McShay -- might end the receiver's dream of going in Round 1. That said, Smith is still ticketed for no worse than a Round 2 selection. "He tracks the deep ball as well as any college wide receiver I've seen in years," said NFL Network's Mike Mayock.

Feb 21 - 10:50 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Maryland WR Stefon Diggs recorded forty times of 4.46 and 4.50 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
A decent -- but not breathtaking -- showing by the 6-foot, 195-pounder, especially since he is almost exclusively a straight-line player, like a poor man's Ted Ginn Jr. Diggs made a mistake in leaving school early. We'll let TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline explain why: "Most [NFL teams] grade Diggs as a last day pick and feel another season on the college field would’ve potentially pushed him into the draft’s initial 75 selections."

Feb 21 - 10:16 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Washington State WR Vince Mayle posted forty times of 4.67 and 4.73 at the NFL Scouting Combine.
The 6-foot-2, 224-pound former basketball player was probably hoping to clock in the high 4.5s, but his final tallies aren't terribly surprising. Mayle hauled in 106 passes for 1,483 yards and nine touchdowns across 12 games last year in Mike Leach's pass-happy offense. Because of the scheme and his overall raw game, a decent chunk of that production came on gimmicks and bubble screens. That said, there's talent here, specifically in his physicality, ball skills, and strong hands. An NFC scout told NFL.com in December that Mayle is "the best-kept secret on the West Coast" and was "one of the biggest risers on draft boards" after a huge senior season. The likely Day 3 pick will have to provide special teams value early in his career to hang on long enough to iron out the technical deficiencies inherent to his current game.

Feb 21 - 8:34 PM

 

[EBF]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=703612&hl=

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=676867&hl=

Looks like I did pretty well in the past, so you can base it off of that if you have to get defensive and create some type of measuring stick.

Football is played on the field with pads on, not on a track in tights. The combine is a tool to use in evaluations, but it's 20% of the formula that is revealed to the public. 70% tape, 20% combine(part of this is accurate sizes too), 10% statistics.

Apparently we have different definitions of "pretty well". I'm not saying I'd do any better, but 2013. :X

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=673126&hl=

Here's the only comparison i've seen in the SP, i'll let you judge.

Heh. Apart from the fact that you're comparing your February rankings with my December rankings, I'd point out that anyone can find years where they've done very well or very poorly. I think I was pretty on the money in 2010 and 2012. Not so much 2013.

Most of my energy goes towards devy stuff these days and I think I've gotten very good at it. I didn't see too many people hyping up Nick Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott last May: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702488&p=16861183

 

[Steed]

Can Conley play?

http://draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=256352&gif=NegligibleBoilingHogget

 

[MAC_32]

Can Conley play?

http://draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=256352&gif=NegligibleBoilingHogget

Based on what he did in college, no. Smells of Chris Henry.

 

[EBF]

Can Conley play?

http://draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=256352&gif=NegligibleBoilingHogget

An important question that I'm sure people will be looking at over the next 2+ months.

One thing that bears mentioning is how atrocious Georgia is at getting production from their WRs. They always have great athletes. They just suck at using them. Here's a list of recent Georgia WRs along with their best collegiate yardage season:

AJ Green - 963 yards

Tavarres King - 950 yards

Mohamed Massaquoi - 920 yards

Reggie Brown - 860 yards

Fred Gibson - 801 yards

Kris Durham - 659 yards

Marlon Brown - 469 yards

That's seven receivers with some degree of NFL talent. Not a single one of them produced a 1k+ yard season at Georgia. This list is a little deceptive because I think AJ Green would've done it if not for his suspension in his final season, but nevertheless it shows you how terrible Georgia is at utilizing its WR talent. Wasting NFL caliber receivers is like an annual tradition for the Bulldogs. That's something to keep in mind when you look at Conley's modest stats.

 

[Faust]

Baylor QB Bryce Petty, WR Antwan Goodley both impress at NFL Combine

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Devin Smith - WR - Buckeyes

Ohio State WR Devin Smith's disappointing 40 time on Saturday was a result of a sluggish first 10 yards, reports TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline.

Smith, expected to finish with a time in the 4.3s or even 4.2s, ran forty times of 4.42 and 4.47 at the NFL Scouting Combine. "I spoke with people from Smiths camp who told me the problem was all in the initial ten yards," Pauline wrote. "Throughout combine training Smith had been clocking 1.45-seconds in his ten time but yesterday for some reason he ran 1.55s. The one-tenth difference kept Smith out of the 4.3s. Itll be interesting to see what happens during the Buckeyes pro-day." The slower-than-expected time could keep Smith, a burner, out of the first round.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Feb 22 - 8:36 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

MyCole Pruitt - TE - Salukis

Southern Illinois TE MyCole Pruitt "was able to take advantage of the down [TE] group" at the combine, wrote ESPN's Todd McShay.

The 6-foot-2, 250-pounder has long arms (33 1/2) and big hands (10 1/4). "[Pruitt] really stood out during the testing drills," McShay wrote. "His 4.58 40 and 38-inch vertical led the group, and he posted the fourth-best broad jump at 9-10. We have yet to do a full evaluation on Pruitt, but he certainly helped gain some attention Friday by putting up the best numbers among tight ends." McShay will see a nice pair of mitts on tape. Pruitt caught 81 passes for 861 yards and 13 touchdowns last season.

Source: ESPN Insider

Feb 22 - 10:59 PM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Bryce Petty - QB - Bears

Baylor QB Bryce Petty’s accuracy on Saturday "really impressed" ESPN’s Todd McShay.

"Tightened up his lower-body mechanics and it's showing during this passing session," McShay wrote. NFL Media analyst Mike Mayock was also impressed by Petty's showing, particularly with how the ball was jumping off his hand, but believes Petty will require more than a year of work to mold into an NFL starter due to his transition from Baylor's spread offense to a pro-style set.

Source: Todd McShay on Twitter

Feb 22 - 7:09 PM

 

[Borden]

Can Conley play?

http://draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/?clip=256352&gif=NegligibleBoilingHogget

Yep. There's another video up on DB vs Arkansas.

I will admit that I jumped on the bandwagon though.

 

[bucksoh]

So will people jump back on the Gordon band wagon when he runs a 4.39 40 at his pro day? Does anyone think, he has a chance too?

 

[Biabreakable]

what was LeVeon Bells work out numbers like?

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/le'veon-bell?id=25401754.60 forty for a guy his size is very good. (Same with Jeremy Hill last year)

Three cone of 6.75 better than any RB this year.

His shuttle and jumps pale in comparison to this years group, though.

Absolutely. And a great reminder to not put too much stock in these numbers. You can weed out some guys you were considering from the combine numbers but it's a mistake to do it without watching their film first and considering their other measurables.

A guy like Buck Allen has become more appealing to me after the combine while guys like TJ Yeldon and Duke Johnson have given me less reason to take a chance on them.

exactly so while I knew a few people who post here would have certain reactions to the RBs workout numbers, I think football skill is in intangible still.

Could someone refresh my memory as to the 3-cone scale, whats considered good, excellent and terrible?

Here is a thread discussing what statistics matter for college running backs.

For LeVeon Bell it certainly was noted at that time how remarkable it was for a RB of his size to perform so well in the 3 cone drill.

But to be honest Bell came into the 2014 season about 10 pounds lighter than the weight he played at in college and his rookie season. He became a much better player in his second season. Many people remarked how Bell looked like a completely different player than what they thought he was. So people watching him in college and his rookie season were not seeing the full potential of what Bell would become.

 

[pizzatyme]

What are the thoughts on Kenny Bell WR Nebraska? I thought he had a very nice combine and he seems to be off the radar.

 

[MAC_32]

What are the thoughts on Kenny Bell WR Nebraska? I thought he had a very nice combine and he seems to be off the radar.

I haven't taken much time to analyze him, and probably won't, but anytime I watched Abdullah and Bell had the ball he played recklessly and hurt himself.

 

[pizzatyme]

What are the thoughts on Kenny Bell WR Nebraska? I thought he had a very nice combine and he seems to be off the radar.

I haven't taken much time to analyze him, and probably won't, but anytime I watched Abdullah and Bell had the ball he played recklessly and hurt himself.

My kinda guy!

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline reports that the New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers were showing heavy interest in Miami WR Phillip Dorsett at the combine.
"It was bandied about the internet the New York Jets spent a significant amount of time with Philip Dorsett. I can confirm this to be true. Besides the Jets the other team who has taking a liking to the speedy wide out are the Green Bay Packers," Pauline wrote. The Packers and the Jets both have needs at the wide receiver position, with Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin potentially out the door. The Hurricane prospect could be a nice weapon as a vertical threat at the next level.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 23 - 2:24 PM

 

[pizzatyme]

Rotoworld:

TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline reports that the New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers were showing heavy interest in Miami WR Phillip Dorsett at the combine.
"It was bandied about the internet the New York Jets spent a significant amount of time with Philip Dorsett. I can confirm this to be true. Besides the Jets the other team who has taking a liking to the speedy wide out are the Green Bay Packers," Pauline wrote. The Packers and the Jets both have needs at the wide receiver position, with Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin potentially out the door. The Hurricane prospect could be a nice weapon as a vertical threat at the next level.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 23 - 2:24 PM

I got to see him in person at the Combine and he looked terrific. Interesting that the Packers were overly interested. What's that say about Cobb if anything?

 

[MAC_32]

Rotoworld:

TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline reports that the New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers were showing heavy interest in Miami WR Phillip Dorsett at the combine.
"It was bandied about the internet the New York Jets spent a significant amount of time with Philip Dorsett. I can confirm this to be true. Besides the Jets the other team who has taking a liking to the speedy wide out are the Green Bay Packers," Pauline wrote. The Packers and the Jets both have needs at the wide receiver position, with Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin potentially out the door. The Hurricane prospect could be a nice weapon as a vertical threat at the next level.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 23 - 2:24 PM

I got to see him in person at the Combine and he looked terrific. Interesting that the Packers were overly interested. What's that say about Cobb if anything?

Given the quality of this class and the fact that the Pack drafted two receivers last year (plus Janis) I expect Cobb to walk, the Pack to take the comp pick next year, then draft someone day 2.

 

[Faust]

2015 NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Jameis Winston goes No. 1 to Buccaneers

NFL Mock Draft No. 4: Eagles trade up to land Mariota at No. 4

2015 NFL Mock Draft: Jaguars keep Dante Fowler in Florida

2015 NFL Mock Draft: Titans can't ignore Mariota's upside at No. 2

Mock Draft Version 3: NFL Combine shakes up first roundNFL mock draft: Projecting the first two rounds after the combine

 

[-CE-]

Rotoworld:

TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline reports that the New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers were showing heavy interest in Miami WR Phillip Dorsett at the combine.
"It was bandied about the internet the New York Jets spent a significant amount of time with Philip Dorsett. I can confirm this to be true. Besides the Jets the other team who has taking a liking to the speedy wide out are the Green Bay Packers," Pauline wrote. The Packers and the Jets both have needs at the wide receiver position, with Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin potentially out the door. The Hurricane prospect could be a nice weapon as a vertical threat at the next level.

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Feb 23 - 2:24 PM

I got to see him in person at the Combine and he looked terrific. Interesting that the Packers were overly interested. What's that say about Cobb if anything?

That if someone is willing to really throw the bank at Cobb, they'll let him walk. The Packers have a team philosophy of drafting then trusting what they did, attempting to keep those players for reasonable prices or letting them walk. They've done well in the past, they drafted WR's last year, and if they are looking at another WR this year they are expecting Cobb to be overpriced by the market.

It makes sense. I always thought Cobb was great, but Aaron Rodgers is really great. I think they'll give Cobb a contract offer similar to Nelson... they have a little cap room this year, but it might be better spent to keep Bryan Bulaga on the offensive line.

 

[mcintyre1]

What are the thoughts on Kenny Bell WR Nebraska? I thought he had a very nice combine and he seems to be off the radar.

I had a big long response typed up before the forums disappeared yesterday which was lost, but the summary is: physically talented, iffy hands, great run blocker. Probably not fantasy relevant ever.

 

[Faust]

Klatt's NFL Draft Big Board: Who stands their ground in Version 3?

 

[Faust]

Fantasy rookie RB Class of 2015

 

[Faust]

2015 NFL Draft Outlook

 

[Faust]

Phil Simms: 2015 QB class is 'a bad group,' Jameis is 'best thrower'

 

[Faust]

Dynasty Rookie Top 40:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/52395/69/dynasty-rookie-top-40

 

[mcintyre1]

Fantasy rookie RB Class of 2015

Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska) ... His is a Donald Brown-style profile.