The State of the Draft is a series that includes notes, rumors and potential predictions based on discussions with members of the football industry, including scouts, agents and others involved in the process.
This edition of “State of the Draft” includes why the Titans might trade down from #1 overall, who may be moving up and why, why the Browns may be having an internal conflict on their quarterback plans, updates on where the quarterbacks may end up, how the top talent of the draft is viewed by teams, character notes on Bosa, Elliott, Nkemdiche and Spence, and much more.
Titans Trade Down
-Trading down is always much easier said than done, especially at #1 overall. But I’ve been told Tennessee would genuinely welcome the idea, which is why they’ve lessened their stance in the media from “kings ransom” to “open to it”. Why could they look to trade down? I’ve been told they value 3-4 other offensive tackles highly in this class and may end up preferring added picks without losing much value on their board.
-How far down they’d go isn’t known, nor if they’d be demanding an added 1st rounder to move down even a few spots. Being that they may be okay with trading down because they value other OTs similarly may mean that, if they stay put, Tunsil is the pick, though I can’t say that for sure.
Moving Up to #1 – Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers, Eagles, Rams?
-So who would move up? I was told some time ago that Wentz was atop their board which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Jerry Jones has come out and said that the team won’t draft a quarterback at #4 overall, but I wouldn’t rule it out. Jones has stated many times in the past he’s regretted not planning for life after Aikman, and with a playoff caliber roster already in place, the Cowboys may be willing to sacrifice short-term additions for long-term planning. Again, despite Jerry Jones’s statements, I’ve been told it’s still too early to rule out a trade up, especially if he feels the Eagles could be angling for Wentz at #1 as well.
-The Ravens aren’t known for making major trade ups, but being that they have few major needs and four fourth round picks, the Ravens could be an intriguing trade up option (DeForest Buckner/Laremy Tunsil would be my guess as their target).
-The 49ers and Eagles have had rumored interest in quarterbacks, but I’ve been almost told to almost entirely rule out the Eagles making a move or drafting a quarterback at #8, and doubt Goff to the 49ers at 7th overall; They have their eyes on other quarterbacks later the draft, though he may be in play should Goff slip on draft day.
Browns Potential Conflict
-Not to my surprise, I was told that Hue Jackson was a major advocate for Robert Griffin’s signing, and he feels he can really thrive within his offense. Whether or not Griffin’s signing was Sashi Brown’s way of throwing Jackson a bone or because he felt it was wise is unclear. But the contract design seems to indicate the former.
-The Browns plan was always to add two or, more likely, three quarterbacks this off-season. Griffin makes one. Who will be the second one? On one hand, I’ve been told that taking a QB at #2 has been Sashi Browns’ plan for some time, with Carson Wentz as the expected pick. On the other hand, I’ve been told repeatedly throughout the process, and reiterated unexpectedly from a source last week, that Hue Jackson advocates for Cardale Jones at the top of round two. Whether Sashi Brown and the higher-up front office is trying to put out smoke screens on Wentz (maybe to bait a team to move to #1 like Dallas?) or they simply do want Wentz and will pass on Jackson’s desires, it’s difficult to say at this point.
Quarterback Landing Spots?
-Could Jared Goff slip on draft day? It’s certainly possible. If Wentz ends up in Cleveland (likely), the 49ers seem like the only team that could take Goff in the top-10. Even that seems unlikely based on what I’ve been told, even if they trade Colin Kaepernick to Denver (haggling between a 2nd rounder vs a 4th rounder offered by Denver).
-Goff in Chicago makes sense to me, but if not there, he could slip to 20 and the New York Jets…or farther. While some I’ve spoken with believe Goff could go #2 to Cleveland or be a traded-up for player, the majority of those in the know on this quarterback class believe he’s more likely to slip that be picked in the top-five.
-Paxton Lynch is our top quarterback in this class, but that sentiment isn’t felt around the league. The Cowboys have interest (may not be that far off from Carson Wentz on their QB board), but the Rams seem like the odds on favorites to land him. If he slides past them, the Jets are a strong fit. Three teams that could move up for Lynch should he fall past the Rams: Cowboys, Browns (if they don’t take Wentz) and especially the Denver Broncos.
-The Texans are still in play for Christian Hackenberg, as crazy as that sounds. While it’s hard for me to believe, it’s what I’ve been told (
and been agreed with on by Ben Allbright on Twitter). That said, I think Denver may be the best fit if they don’t move up for Paxton Lynch. Arizona is a dark-horse, even in round one.
Top Of The Draft Talent
-There’s some concern as to how Ezekiel Elliott, Joey Bosa, Nick Vannett (especially) and other Buckeye prospects will handle the NFL based on the somewhat free reign they were given under Urban Meyer at Ohio State. While it shouldn’t entirely detract them from being high picks, it may be why Buckner over Bosa is common for NFL teams, and Elliott not in the top-eight is possible despite his talent.
-On Buckner: he’s highly viewed by NFL teams and character is a big reason why. While his on-film value has been under-appreciated, his character and by example and vocal leadership has been undervalued. He’s a player at least a few teams feel you can build a defense around. Myles Jack is also highly valued by teams. He’s in the top-two overall for two teams I know of.
-I know
Lance Zierlin of NFL.com has stated the Cowboys won’t be taking Bosa, I can’t entirely rule it out based on what I’ve been told. Myles Jack is a strong option, Ezekiel Elliott should be in play, but Bosa still makes too much sense and I’ve heard the two linked for some time. That all said, Lance is highly undervalued as an insider and when he says things like this (especially on Texas teams), I listen.
Other Notes
-One comparison I’ve heard for Mackensie Alexander (primarily based on attitude: Justin Gilbert. That was concerning to hear. Many feel he unwisely declared early and has rubbed some in the process the wrong way.
-Robert Nkemdiche isn’t a bad kid, at least that’s the general feeling among those who’ve spoken/interviewed him. One team said that he had one of the highest psychological test scores they’ve ever seen. He’s just an odd guy that teams can’t really get a handle on mentally. He’s been a star athlete since he was in middle school, and that’s affected how he’s grown as a person off the field.
-I still highly doubt that Nkemdiche’s a first-round pick, but he’ll have suitors in round two. Teams I don’t think will take him: Buffalo, Indianapolis. Team to watch: Oakland Raiders.
-Noah Spence’s image (and drug) rehab has drawn an interesting comparison: Von Miller. It took a suspension and further enlightenment for Miller to stop messing around and eliminate substance abuse from his life en route to being a Super Bowl star. Spence faced that problem as a sophomore in college and has responded similarly. While he’s not without lingering questions and wasn’t a saint after his Ohio State days were over, at least a few NFL teams believe he’s still likely worth a late-first round pick.
-Le’Raven Clark in the top-40 appears highly likely. Steelers make sense, but the Seahawks are the best fit. Despite his poor film and need for ample development, more than a few NFL OL coaches feel he’s a worthwhile project.
-Tavon Young is one of my favorite prospects in the class (I’ve compared him to Malcolm Butler), but one team that generally doesn’t consider cornerbacks under 6’0 has kept Young on their board as a top-100 option. The third-round seems likely, despite our high grade.
-Possible first-rounders that wouldn’t surprise me: Connor Cook, Kenneth Dixon, Le’Raven Clark, Kenny Clark, Will Jackson, Justin Simmons, Keanu Neal
