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[Dynasty] 2019 NFL Draft Class (2 Viewers)

Bojang0301 said:
I’ve seen people suggesting to trade up into the beginning of the first before positions get solidified... when I see stuff like this I have to wonder why. I believe people should be trading down rather than hoping a fringe prospect like Jacobs lands a prime spot. 
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Do you think that members of this group have as good or better chance of being a hit than those taken in the 1st round?

 
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bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Only 7 WRs the last 15 years have posted a 42 inch vertical or better at the NFL Scouting Combine.
(Jarrett Dillard, Trindon Holliday, Jon Baldwin, Kashif Moore, Jaelen Strong, Chris Conley, Speedy Noil)

I'll take the under here https://t.co/Cej6L0MTZn
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Sure but he's probably going to clear 40. I don't get why people think he won't test well. He won't blaze the 40 but for a big strong guy, he looks very athletic to me. 

 
tangfoot said:
Do you think that members of this group have as good or better chance of being a hit than those taken in the 1st round?
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Where the players are right now? Ya, I don’t see the risk profile as much different between Mike Weber and Josh Jacobs but that’s just my opinion. Most around here don’t like it. 

 
The Draft Network's Jon Ledyard called Washington State RB James Williams an "electric playmaker."

Williams (6'0/205) will likely end up as a mid-round pick, which lowers his chances, but he has the potential to be an above average pass-catching running back. Williams led this year’s RB class in targets (93), receptions (83), receiving yards (613), and receiving touchdowns (4) and graded well in YPT (4th) and Marginal Explosion (4th). However, if he is going to be a playmaker, Williams has to improve his pass protection skills. If Williams lands on a team that utilizes their running backs as receivers, watch out.

SOURCE: The Draft Network

Feb 13, 2019, 6:41 PM
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Reese's Senior Bowl director Jim Nagy put Clemson WR Hunter Renfrow on his all-value team.

Renfrow (5'10/175) joins West Virginia WR Gary Jennings on the former NFL scout's imaginary team. At Senior Bowl practices, Renfrow showed off his route-running prowess and his sure-fire hands. Of course, there are limitations with Renfrow, but he has a higher floor than other Day 3 wide receiver prospects. If he tests better than expected, Renfrow could be flirting with a Day 2 selection.

SOURCE: Jim Nagy on Twitter

Feb 14, 2019, 4:41 PM
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Reese's Senior Bowl director Jim Nagy put Michigan RB Karan Higdon on his all-value team.

Higdon (5'9/203) was largely forgettable at Senior Bowl practices and he only had 18 rushing yards in the game, so this listing by Nagy is surprising. Where Higdon needs to make some noise as at the NFL Combine or else he risks being a Round 6 or 7 prospect. For now, Higdon is closer to the Round 5 range after clearing the 900-yard mark in back to back seasons for the Wolverines.

SOURCE: Jim Nagy on Twitter

Feb 14, 2019, 4:37 PM
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Reese's Senior Bowl director Jim Nagy listed West Virginia WR Gary Jennings on his all-value team.

Jennings (6'1/213) had a nice showing at Senior Bowl practices, and he was underrated at West Virginia with QB Will Grier getting a lot of the attention. However, Jennings is a legit NFL prospect and Nagy's listing is more evidence as so. As a senior, Jennings scored 13 touchdowns (17.8 TD%) and averaged 12.6 yards on his 73 targets (917 yards). As of now, Jennings sits on the Day 2/3 borderline.

SOURCE: Jim Nagy on Twitter

Feb 14, 2019, 4:32 PM
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NFL.com's Lance Zierlein says Miami RB Travis Homer in "plenty of dog to him in pass pro."

Homer (5'11/195) can "thump it out" while in pass protection, according to Zierlein. Of all of the attributes a running back can have, pass protection always seems like the biggest hindrance to seeing playing time as a rookie, so this is good news for Homer. As a runner, Homer averaged 6.0 yards per carry, but he only had four touchdowns on 164 carries, scoring only two touchdowns on 24 red zone carries. While there's not a huge ceiling with Homer on the surface, he has the skills to potentially carve out a role in the NFL but that is dependant on where and when he is drafted.

SOURCE: Lance Zierlein on Twitter

Feb 14, 2019, 3:54 PM
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Faust said:
2019 NFL Draft Player Profiles: Ohio State WR Parris Campbell

Ohio State: Five reasons Parris Campbell could be a first-round pick

Parris Campbell is bringing potential first-round talent to the field
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The Draft Network's Trevor Sikkema mocked Ohio State WR Parris Campbell to Round 6.

Two weeks ago, Bleacher Report's Matt Miller sent Campbell (6'1/208) to the Jaguars with the No. 38 overall pick, but Sikkema and others aren't as bullish when it comes to Campbell's draft stock. However, the NFL Combine is right around the corner and Campbell is expected to perform at a high level with reports of a sub-4.40 forty and a 40-inch vertical. Those numbers would indicate that Campbell could be a deep threat despite being used as a short-yardage YAC receiver at the Ohio State University.

SOURCE: The Draft Network

Feb 14, 2019, 3:40 PM
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SB Nation's Crissy Froyd reports that Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald is "expected to be selected in the third or fourth round" of the 2019 NFL Draft.

What? Reportedly, Fitzgerald (6'5/230) would be an option to serve in the Saints Taysom Hill role, which would allow Fitzgerald to run and occasionally pass. Here are the issues with that. First of all, Fitzgerald does not have NFL passing ability, and secondly, there are only a few teams who would even be open to utilizing it. It seems unlikely that Fitzgerald will actually be drafted as high as the report indicates, but NFL teams have drafted kickers in the second round, so we can't rule it out.

SOURCE: Crissy Froyd on Twitter

Feb 14, 2019, 3:17 PM
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Faust said:
NFL DRAFT ANALYTICS FOR WR 

...the NFL data is for NFL seasons two through four (not the rookie season) because that’s when an NFL team is seeing the biggest returns on the draft pick, 

STATISTICS THAT HAVE HISTORICALLY NOT BEEN CORRELATED TO EARLY NFL SUCCESS (AV/G) FOR WRS:

1. NFL Combine Vertical Jump (R-squared  = 0.00)

2. College YPR vs. Teammates (0.00)

3. NFL Combine 40-Yard Dash (0.00)

4. NFL Combine Broad Jump (0.00)

5. College YPR (0.00) ...

---------------------------

STATISTICS THAT HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN CORRELATED TO EARLY NFL SUCCESS (AV/G) FOR WRS:

1. College Market Share of Receptions (R-squared = 0.06)

2. College Dominance Rating (0.06)

3. College Market Share of Receiving Yards (0.06)

4. College Market Share of Receiving TDs (0.05)

-----------------------------

 ...to take advantage of the small correlations here, you definitely want to focus on the market share data. In general, the market share data outperformed the total production and per game production. In fact, the four top metrics in this sample were the market share metrics -- dominance rating adds up market share of receiving yards and market share of receiving touchdowns.

CONCLUSION: ...

The NFL Draft has not been great at evaluating wide receivers relative to other positions. The r-squared for the position is only 0.14, meaning that only 14% of the variation in early NFL success for wide receivers can be explained by the overall draft pick. That’s not very good, but I’m expecting this number to improve with college football analytics starting to improve.

...the NFL Combine has been little to zero correlation, meaning that it’s smart to buy-low on receivers who did mediocre (not terrible) at the combine.
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Go to the above LINK to see the entire article w/charts and explanations but some good stuff.

Here is an analytic that doesn't bode well for the first WR selected in any draft.  Woof.  This stat dovetails into the above analytic study.  Click LINK to chart.

--------------------------------------------------------

LINK to chart of list of the first WR picked in every draft since 2000... hit rate is... not very good

Marcus Mosher‏Verified account @Marcus_Mosher

Here is a list of the first WR picked in every draft since 2000. The hit rate by the league is... not very good.

12:57 PM - 14 Feb 2019

 
Benjamin Allbright calls Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson a "future journeyman" and "spot start" quarterback.

Allbright equates that to a Day 2 or early Day 3 pick, which aligns with Senior Bowl director Jim Nagy's report that no GM gave Thorson below a third-round grade. However, we aren't going to lock Thorson into a Day 2 selection at all. In fact, he's probably closer to Round 5 or 6 than Round 2 or 3. Allbright continues to categorize Will Grier, Jarrett Stidham, and Ryan Finley as future journeymen and spot start quarterbacks.

SOURCE: Benjamin Allbright on Twitter

Feb 15, 2019, 7:26 PM
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To  go with the Marcus Mosher Tweet of the first WR drafted dating back to 2000.  The replies to his tweet asked about context of other skill positions.  He said he would dig into that and just Tweeted the first RB selected dating back to 2000.  The hit rate is much higher than the first WR's taken.

-----------------------

LINK to first RBs drafted dating back to year 2000 to compare  hit rates with WRs

Marcus Mosher‏Verified account @Marcus_Mosher

Here is the first RB picked in each draft since 2000:

9:31 AM - 15 Feb 2019

 
Bracie Smathers said:
To  go with the Marcus Mosher Tweet of the first WR drafted dating back to 2000.  The replies to his tweet asked about context of other skill positions.  He said he would dig into that and just Tweeted the first RB selected dating back to 2000.  The hit rate is much higher than the first WR's taken.

-----------------------

LINK to first RBs drafted dating back to year 2000 to compare  hit rates with WRs

Marcus Mosher‏Verified account @Marcus_Mosher

Here is the first RB picked in each draft since 2000:

9:31 AM - 15 Feb 2019
Click to expand...
I dont see the hit rate for wrs. but the above list is impressive 

 
Bracie Smathers said:
To  go with the Marcus Mosher Tweet of the first WR drafted dating back to 2000.  The replies to his tweet asked about context of other skill positions.  He said he would dig into that and just Tweeted the first RB selected dating back to 2000.  The hit rate is much higher than the first WR's taken.

-----------------------

LINK to first RBs drafted dating back to year 2000 to compare  hit rates with WRs

Marcus Mosher‏Verified account @Marcus_Mosher

Here is the first RB picked in each draft since 2000:

9:31 AM - 15 Feb 2019
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Awesome that’s what I like to see. Every year is different but when data like this is measured in the right perspective it can help with your decision making.

Thanks for posting,

Tex

 
What is everyone's opinion of the QBs after Murray and Haskins? 

Anyone worth grabbing end of round 2/round 3? 

Stidham had round 1 buzz... any thoughts? Wait for 2020?

 
Dr. Dan said:
What is everyone's opinion of the QBs after Murray and Haskins? 

Anyone worth grabbing end of round 2/round 3? 

Stidham had round 1 buzz... any thoughts? Wait for 2020?
Click to expand...
Not this year and I wouldn't bother with Murray.  Haskins is the only QB (non-QB2 leagues) worth drafting IMO and that's not until rd 2 of rookie drafts.

 
JohnnyU said:
Not this year and I wouldn't bother with Murray.  Haskins is the only QB (non-QB2 leagues) worth drafting IMO and that's not until rd 2 of rookie drafts.
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Originally I was planning on grabbing him at 2.1. and I still could I think. But I may pass for 2020. I am not in desperate need for a qb, and 2.1 could be a top te. I would rather have that than a qb I think. I have my reservations on Haskins, but he is my favorite in this class. 

 
Finally got around to calculating some market share numbers last night (work ZWK has probably had done since the end of bowl season) I have to admit Benny Snell and Alexander Mattison were big surprises. I still can’t get over people wanting to say and put Josh Jacobs as #1 overall. He had an 11% team market share... it was dead last amongst the 35 prospects I calculated including Kerrith Whyte, Tony Pollard, Bruce Anderson and Lance Dunn. People can think or say it doesn’t matter but it has a very strong correlation with success. If I was walking into the process blind he would probably start working his way into the conversation in the early teens when his receiving share starts distinguishing him from other players. 

 
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