I grew up in the 70s, so I understand all too well.It's a Milwaukee thing. most wouldnt understand
cloppbeast said:I can deal with Holyfield if all he lacks is top end, even if it's really bad. I havent heard anything about a ss or his 40 yard split. Just something to show a smidgen of acceleration, which he looked to have in his football games imo.
The abandoned ship of Singletary confuses me more than anything. People loved this guy before the combine.
I think some on this board are sleeping on Benny Snell Jr.It’s something I did. there’s a threshold for 40 times on RBs that once they exceed it, the odds of being an impact RB in the NFL seems to go through the floor. I have no problem drafting a 4.60 RB. Long speed is a great trait but it’s way down the list in traits that RBs need to succeed in the NFL IMO.
I don’t think it’s even an overreaction let alone an extreme one. You have two players with limited receiving profiles (one of which who split time at FAU) who have now displayed poor athleticism. Also in Singletary’s case he is probably too small to be having a 4.65. Situation may lead either back to have spurts of productivity as a pro but what was being hoped for was the chance at being a stud. I don’t think either one offers that at this point and we should be going for home runs in rookie drafts.Jacobs aside, Foghorn Leghorn makes a good point... you have RBs like Singletary (and even Holyfield) who were thought of very highly prior to the combine and they had good production in college. Suddenly Holyfield is undraftable and people have practically jumped ship on Singletary? Seems like too much stock can be put into the combine, especially the 40. I dont think ant team has the "40 yard" play... but maybe I'm wrong.
I think you're confusing straight line 40 yard speed with "athelticism"I don’t think it’s even an overreaction let alone an extreme one. You have two players with limited receiving profiles (one of which who split time at FAU) who have now displayed poor athleticism. Also in Singletary’s case he is probably too small to be having a 4.65. Situation may lead either back to have spurts of productivity as a pro but what was being hoped for was the chance at being a stud. I don’t think either one offers that at this point and we should be going for home runs in rookie drafts.
C’mon man... I am not confusing athleticism. This is not athletic: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/devin-singletary/I think you're confusing straight line 40 yard speed with "athelticism"
By your definition, DK Metcalf is the most athletic WR in the draft
It's a Milwaukee thing. most wouldnt understand
If you liked a guy as a stud pending the combine, you should still like him in the 2nd or 3rd of rookie drafts if he runs a 4.66. Moving on to the next flavor of the week sparq score darling, you'll miss out on a lot of hidden gems.I don’t think it’s even an overreaction let alone an extreme one. You have two players with limited receiving profiles (one of which who split time at FAU) who have now displayed poor athleticism. Also in Singletary’s case he is probably too small to be having a 4.65. Situation may lead either back to have spurts of productivity as a pro but what was being hoped for was the chance at being a stud. I don’t think either one offers that at this point and we should be going for home runs in rookie drafts.
thisIf you liked a guy as a stud pending the combine, you should still like him in the 2nd or 3rd of rookie drafts if he runs a 4.66. Moving on to the next flavor of the week sparq score darling, you'll miss out on a lot of hidden gems.
It’s not just the 40. He had a terrible workout all together. I’m not a guy who believes the 220lb myth but when a guy is under 205 and starts creeping closer to 200 or below they need to have elite speed in order to do anything of real significance. Maybe Singletary will flash in different ways (he caught a lot of passes his JR year) but I would bet against him ever having a top 24 season based on all information available. I believe I had him RB6 pre combine but there is zero reason to stubbornly keep a guy high when new info is presented. Much like how if AJ Brown or N’Keal Harry goes to the Ravens people will not want to touch them top 5 despite being the best two WR’s predraft.If you liked a guy as a stud pending the combine, you should still like him in the 2nd or 3rd of rookie drafts if he runs a 4.66. Moving on to the next flavor of the week sparq score darling, you'll miss out on a lot of hidden gems.
A lot of people had him a lot higher than 6. I don't suggest keeping him up at number 1, but 6-10 sounds fair, maybe a little lower. You liked him for some reason before the combine, all that stuff didn't go away. Unless you only like players who you thought would have a good sparq score, in which case you don't even need to watch football.It’s not just the 40. He had a terrible workout all together. I’m not a guy who believes the 220lb myth but when a guy is under 205 and starts creeping closer to 200 or below they need to have elite speed in order to do anything of real significance. Maybe Singletary will flash in different ways (he caught a lot of passes his JR year) but I would bet against him ever having a top 24 season based on all information available. I believe I had him RB6 pre combine but there is zero reason to stubbornly keep a guy high when new info is presented. Much like how if AJ Brown or N’Keal Harry goes to the Ravens people will not want to touch them top 5 despite being the best two WR’s predraft.
Perhaps it's because Jacobs has better size and poor numbers at the combine are more forgivable for the RB that has better measurables?Edit: Also, it's ironic people have dug in for Jacobs, but completely abandoned Singletary's hype train.
Bleacher Report's Matt Miller stamped Stanford TE Kaden Smith with a Round 4 grade.
Miller thought he would be higher on Smith (6'5/255) as a " Physical route-runner" with "good hands." He criticizes that Smith "lacks speed and is a linear route-runner with no juice to create separation." Miller hit the nail on the head here with Smiths' lack of athleticism after he tested in just the 8th percentile of SPARQ athletic composite scores at the NFL Scouting Combine. After a poor showing at the combine, Smith will likely be a Day 3 selection.
SOURCE: Matt Miller on Twitter
Mar 24, 2019, 9:44 AM
Bleacher Report's Matt Miller believes San Diego State TE Kahale Warring has "huge potential."
Miller labels Warring (6'5/252) as a "Wow" athlete, and he showed it at the NFL Scouting Combine with an 80th percentile SPARQ athletic composite score. Warring has been getting a lot of hype from draft analysts over the past month and for good reason. He only began playing football as a senior in high school and continued to improve dramatically each year. Miller believes Warring can be a team's second tight end and will likely be drafted on Day 3.
SOURCE: Matt Miller on Twitter
Mar 24, 2019, 9:23 AM
What did Alfred Morris run? He wasn’t fast but had a very nice 3-4 years when he first entered the league.It’s something I did. There’s a threshold for 40 times on RBs that once they exceed it, the odds of being an impact RB in the NFL seems to go through the floor. I have no problem drafting a 4.60 RB. Long speed is a great trait but it’s way down the list in traits that RBs need to succeed in the NFL IMO. But once players exceed about 4.66 seconds in the 40, the chances of finding a guy who can be a FF contributor is extremely slim. That goes through the history of the combine. That’s the red flag for me. And it doesn’t matter how great they looked or how proloific they were in college - that threshold just seems to identify RBs who just aren’t athletic enough to succeed in the NFL.
Not ironic at all..
Edit: Also, it's ironic people have dug in for Jacobs, but completely abandoned Singletary's hype train.
The Athletic's Dane Brugler ranked Northwestern State WR Jazz Ferguson as the 11th-ranked "small school" prospect.
Ferguson (6'5/227) is a former LSU transfer who made the switch after an arrest and 2016 suspension. He has high-end division 1 talent, he just had problems off the field. Ferguson ran a speedy 4.45-second 40-yard dash but nearly matched D.K. Metcalf's brutal 3-cone time of 7.38 with a 7.25. Brugler notes that Ferguson projects as a "developmental receiver" which matches his perceived draft stock of Day 3.
SOURCE: The Athletic
Mar 24, 2019, 10:53 AM
You don’t just get to cherry pick outliers and compare them to everyone that runs a sub 4.6.what if Singletary went to Chicago? We saw what Nagy did with an "unatheletic" Kareem Hunt... would people feel differently about Singletarys future then?
ETA: I suggest Chicago because they are reportedly very interested
PFF has Singletary ranked 2nd in elusiveness and 3rd in attempts without being tackled by first contact. Sure sounds like he plays athletic to me.
If he went to Chicago I'd think he'd be the 3rd best RB on the team and his athletic profile is far worse then Hunts. People care to much about 40's times as if that is all that goes into the athletic profile. Singletary sucked almost across the board, just his jumps were average.PFF has Singletary ranked 2nd in elusiveness and 3rd in attempts without being tackled by first contact. Sure sounds like he plays athletic to me.
What did Alfred Morris run? He wasn’t fast but had a very nice 3-4 years when he first entered the league.
Oh I'm not disagreeing with you brother, just wondering. I can't think of many that had success outside of Morris (being a Skins fan) You could also argue that Morris had a shorter NFL career as a starter because he did lack speed too.Morris and Ricky Watters were successful despite sub-4.66 40 times. Given all the RBs who ran sub 4.66 40s and that we can find 2 were successful emphasizes my point more than detracts from it, don’t you think?
Maybe Singletary or Jacobs are outliers in this group also (and all we have is a pro day time for Jacobs, so it’s pure speculation with him) but that’s a risk I’m not willing to hope for given where I’d have to draft them and the other RBs in this draft.
Always loved him though, was always a team player and a good guy off the field. One of the good ones! Well Jacobs time wasn't actually sub 4.66 (people are just guessing based on pro day/combine disparity which is completely arbitrary), and there are a lot of guys in that general 4.6 range.Morris and Ricky Watters were successful despite sub-4.66 40 times. Given all the RBs who ran sub 4.66 40s and that we can find 2 were successful emphasizes my point more than detracts from it, don’t you think?
Maybe Singletary or Jacobs are outliers in this group also (and all we have is a pro day time for Jacobs, so it’s pure speculation with him) but that’s a risk I’m not willing to hope for given where I’d have to draft them and the other RBs in this draft.
...I'm not. I'm asking if anyone would like Singletary more if he were drafted by a team that has been linked with him more than once. And that their coach has previously taken an uninspiring RB and made him a star. These are just facts.You don’t just get to cherry pick outliers and compare them to everyone that runs a sub 4.6.
Also, here is why Holyfield’s 40 matters: https://twitter.com/pff_austingayle/status/1109869305741672449?s=21
Thanks for this feedback, and answering the question.If he went to Chicago I'd think he'd be the 3rd best RB on the team and his athletic profile is far worse then Hunts. People care to much about 40's times as if that is all that goes into the athletic profile. Singletary sucked almost across the board, just his jumps were average.
His level of comp is so poor I just don't think trying to prop him up using those PFF stats is a good idea
I would agree 100% with thisWell Jacobs time wasn't actually sub 4.66 (people are just guessing based on pro day/combine disparity which is completely arbitrary), and there are a lot of guys in that general 4.6 range.
Arian Foster - 4.68
LeVeon Bell - 4.60
Eddie Lacy - 4.64
Mark Ingram - 4.62
James Conner - 4.65
Kareem Hunt - 4.62
That's just a quick off the top of my head list, I'm sure there are many more. Of course all those guys were 215lbs+ which is why it's much more concerning for Singletary than it is for Jacobs.
Puzzled by this take as well. Holyfield ran slower at this pro day, things are not always faster at pro days.Well Jacobs time wasn't actually sub 4.66 (people are just guessing based on pro day/combine disparity which is completely arbitrary), and there are a lot of guys in that general 4.6 range.
They don’t exactly have a “broad jump play” or even a “3-cone play” either, but they do seem to think they can extract predictive value from these drills.Jacobs aside, Foghorn Leghorn makes a good point... you have RBs like Singletary (and even Holyfield) who were thought of very highly prior to the combine and they had good production in college. Suddenly Holyfield is undraftable and people have practically jumped ship on Singletary? Seems like too much stock can be put into the combine, especially the 40. I dont think ant team has the "40 yard" play... but maybe I'm wrong.
It absolutely makes sense to expect that a smaller guy should have more weight placed on their athleticism than a bigger guy who has a more well rounded skillset.They don’t exactly have a “broad jump play” or even a “3-cone play” either, but they do seem to think they can extract predictive value from these drills.
Maybe they are wrong, maybe not. But I’m on board with Foghorn...if you do put any predictive weight on combine numbers it makes less than zero sense to then cherrypick which players to apply the method to and which to ignore it for. Bad process there.
(Typing the above, and remembering how the classic Foghorn Leghorn cartoons always turn out, being “on board with Foghorn” strikes me as a collosally high-risk situation to put myself in...)
Well Jacobs time wasn't actually sub 4.66 (people are just guessing based on pro day/combine disparity which is completely arbitrary), and there are a lot of guys in that general 4.6 range.
Arian Foster - 4.68
LeVeon Bell - 4.60
Eddie Lacy - 4.64
Mark Ingram - 4.62
James Conner - 4.65
Kareem Hunt - 4.62
That's just a quick off the top of my head list, I'm sure there are many more. Of course all those guys were 215lbs+ which is why it's much more concerning for Singletary than it is for Jacobs.
Only Ingram and Hunt ran both. Ingram's got better and the only info on Hunt's is that he claimed he ran faster at it (not much coverage of Toledo's pro day apparently).How many of those guys listed turned better 40s on their pro day than they did at the combine?
I recall LeVeon destroyed the 3cone drill.....I think its a far more important metric than the 40.Well Jacobs time wasn't actually sub 4.66 (people are just guessing based on pro day/combine disparity which is completely arbitrary), and there are a lot of guys in that general 4.6 range.
Arian Foster - 4.68
LeVeon Bell - 4.60
Eddie Lacy - 4.64
Mark Ingram - 4.62
James Conner - 4.65
Kareem Hunt - 4.62
That's just a quick off the top of my head list, I'm sure there are many more. Of course all those guys were 215lbs+ which is why it's much more concerning for Singletary than it is for Jacobs.
He did, as did Christian McCaffrey. Both are top 10 in 3cone times over the last 10 years.I recall LeVeon destroyed the 3cone drill.....I think its a far more important metric than the 40.
The Athletic's Dane Brugler writes that North Dakota State QB Easton Stick has the "winning resume NFL coaches will appreciate."
Stick (6'1/224) comes in at No. 14 in Brugler's ranking of small school prospects but he notes that "Stick has an average arm but he exudes competitive toughness and razor-sharp intelligence." Stick is a cerebral quarterback with Sean Mcvay-like play recall he showed on a guest appearance on Rotoworld's podcast with Josh Norris. Stick will likely be selected in the late rounds as a developmental quarterback.
SOURCE: The Athletic
Mar 24, 2019, 12:47 PM
FiveThirtyEight's Josh Hermsmeyer gives Boise State QB Brett Rypien a 39% chance of averaging 7.1 yards per attempt in the NFL.
Hermsmeyer built a statistical model using advanced stats to project NFL success, and Rypien (6'2/212) finished in the middle of the pack. Rypien's accuracy was above average, but he was dinged for his weak strength of schedule. Overall, Rypien looks like one of the best Day 3 quarterback prospects in the class.
SOURCE: FiveThirtyEight
Mar 24, 2019, 3:16 PM
Denver Broncos GM John Elway said the team will host private workouts for Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, and Daniel Jones.
The earlier trade for Joe Flacco does not rule out a first-round pick on a quarterback for the Broncos, and it appears that all four quarterbacks are being heavily evaluated. At this point, it would be shocking if Murray was available at No. 10 overall, but Haskins should be in range if the Broncos are willing to trade up, potentially all the way up to 3rd overall. Both Lock and Jones wouldn't require a big move up, so they are the two most likely quarterback options. The link between Lock and the Broncos has been strong for months.
SOURCE: Nicki Jhabvala on Twitter
Mar 24, 2019, 4:00 PM
Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham was 63rd in Total QBR among qualified FBS quarterbacks.
QBR adjusts for strength of schedule, so his raw QBR would be even lower. It's more evidence of how much of a projection Stidham (6'2/214) is, but the NFL-bound quarterback didn't receive a lot of help from his coaching staff and offensive scheme. At the Senior Bowl, Stidham looked improved to some draft analysts, but there's been little buzz since. Stidham sits on the Day 2/3 borderline for now.
SOURCE: ESPN.com
Mar 24, 2019, 5:32 PM
You should get some indication from watching a player as to their athleticism. Did Singletary give the perception he would test awesome at the combine? I thought people just liked the way he plays football.I think the main point re: Jacobs vs. Singletary after their mediocre workouts is that there are lots of examples of 220lb guys who ran a 4.6 and still went on to be successful. There are very very few of sub 205lb guys who did so.
I believe EBF gave some numbers a few years back on how smaller backs could definitely be successful in the modern era, but they pretty much had to be fast (somewhere around the 4.4 range) to be so.
And as has also been pointed out, Singletary's poor workout went far beyond just his 40. Look at how much crap DK Metcalf is getting for his 3 cone time. Singletary's was just as bad except he did it at 203lbs at a position where it's more important and without great metrics in any other drills to balance it out.
The lack of (seemingly) quality options at RB in the draft this year, combined with the shortage of fantasy relevant job openings in the NFL, makes me wonder if guys like Yeldon, Duke Johnson, Crowell, and a signed guy like Mike Davis, might have a better shot at those jobs. If it comes down to a training camp battle between these vets and these rookies, IDK.I’ll be making my own thread but I finally got a chance to go through and really do some weeding out and distunguishing where I value RB’s. Based upon market share, receiving/target share, breakout age, speed score and factoring in agility score, 3-cone and vert below is where I stand right now. I have created an unknown tier this year due to the amount of injured players. I am putting Josh Jacobs in that group seeing as I expect him to go high and will only be judging him by situation as his metrics wouldn’t even have him on my radar otherwise.
Unknown: B.Love, J.Moore, R.Anderson, J.Jacobs, D.Thompson (no pro day yet)
Tier 1: Darrell Henderson, Trayveon Williams, Justice Hill, Mike Weber
Tier 2: Miles Sanders, Damarea Crockett, Miles Gaskins, David Montgomery, Travis Homer
Tier 3: Ryquell Armstead, Alex Barnes, Devine Ozigbo, Benny Snell, Damien Harris, Alex Mattison, Quadre Ollison, Dexter Williams
Tier 4: Devin Singletary, James Williams, Tony Pollard
Tier 5: Karan Higdon, Jordan Scarlett, Darrin Hall
Ranking this class is like pulling teeth. Though I have tiers, I have a tough time distinguishing them from one another and will be heavily factoring in situation, draft capital and anticipated role into post draft rankings. I also have a laundry list of guys on a watch list for pro days. I expect very few of them make it onto the list later on.