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[Dynasty] 2021 NFL Draft Class (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
miqws
Footballguy
Post Player Pos Team NFL# Count Avg SD
1 Najee Harris RB Pit 24 22 1.65 0.67
2 Ja'Marr Chase WR Cin 5 22 1.85 0.88
3 Kyle Pitts TE Atl 4 22 3.70 1.34
4 Travis Etienne RB Jac 25 22 4.05 1.23
5 Jav. Williams RB Den 35 22 5.65 1.50
6 Jaylen Waddle WR Mia 6 22 5.90 1.33
7 Devonta Smith WR Phi 10 22 6.05 1.43
8 Rashod Bateman WR Bal 27 22 8.90 1.48
9 Trevor Lawrence QB Jac 1 22 9.60 1.98
10 Elijah Moore WR NYJ 34 22 11.65 2.37
11 Rondale Moore WR Ari 49 22 12.40 3.05
12 Ter. Marshall WR Car 59 22 13.05 3.20
13 Trey Lance QB SF 3 22 13.15 2.52
14 Justin Fields QB Chi 11 22 14.35 2.87
15 Trey Sermon RB SF 88 22 14.45 2.16
16 Kadarius Toney WR NYG 20 22 14.90 2.85
17 Michael Carter RB NYJ 107 22 16.50 3.68
18 Zach Wilson QB NYJ 2 22 19.50 3.20
19 Dyami Brown WR Was 82 22 21.35 2.87
20 K. Gainwell RB Phi 150 22 22.85 5.45
21 A. St. Brown WR Det 112 22 22.85 5.20
22 D, Eskridge WR Sea 56 22 23.50 4.33
23 Amari Rodgers WR GB 85 21 23.50 3.44
24 Pat Freiermuth TE Pit 55 22 24.85 3.92
25 Tylan Wallace WR Bal 131 22 26.80 5.87
26 Mac Jones QB NE 15 21 27.00 5.16
27 Chuba Hubbard RB Car 126 20 27.55 5.09
28 Nico Collins WR Hou 89 21 28.05 5.87
29 Tutu Atwell WR LAR 57 20 30.95 6.52
30 Josh Palmer WR LAC 77 14 31.60 8.31
31 R. Stevenson RB NE 120 18 32.60 5.49
32 A. Schwartz WR Cle 91 17 34.20 5.03
33 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 194 10 36.20 6.58
34 Jaelon Darden WR TB 129 14 36.60 4.75
35 D. Fitzpatrick WR Ten 109 10 36.85 5.00
36 Kylin Hill RB GB 256 13 37.05 4.80
37 Jer. Jefferson RB Det 257 10 37.10 5.34
38 Seth Williams WR Den 219 13 37.40 4.27
39 Brevin Jordan TE Hou 147 11 37.75 3.97
40 Tommy Tremble TE Car 83 8 38.55 3.62
Early consensus rankings - average and SD - max/min, from @Faust links and other sites.
1 Najee Harris RB Pit 24 22 1.65 0.67
2 Ja'Marr Chase WR Cin 5 22 1.85 0.88
3 Kyle Pitts TE Atl 4 22 3.70 1.34
4 Travis Etienne RB Jac 25 22 4.05 1.23
5 Jav. Williams RB Den 35 22 5.65 1.50
6 Jaylen Waddle WR Mia 6 22 5.90 1.33
7 Devonta Smith WR Phi 10 22 6.05 1.43
8 Rashod Bateman WR Bal 27 22 8.90 1.48
9 Trevor Lawrence QB Jac 1 22 9.60 1.98
10 Elijah Moore WR NYJ 34 22 11.65 2.37
11 Rondale Moore WR Ari 49 22 12.40 3.05
12 Ter. Marshall WR Car 59 22 13.05 3.20
13 Trey Lance QB SF 3 22 13.15 2.52
14 Justin Fields QB Chi 11 22 14.35 2.87
15 Trey Sermon RB SF 88 22 14.45 2.16
16 Kadarius Toney WR NYG 20 22 14.90 2.85
17 Michael Carter RB NYJ 107 22 16.50 3.68
18 Zach Wilson QB NYJ 2 22 19.50 3.20
19 Dyami Brown WR Was 82 22 21.35 2.87
20 K. Gainwell RB Phi 150 22 22.85 5.45
21 A. St. Brown WR Det 112 22 22.85 5.20
22 D, Eskridge WR Sea 56 22 23.50 4.33
23 Amari Rodgers WR GB 85 21 23.50 3.44
24 Pat Freiermuth TE Pit 55 22 24.85 3.92
25 Tylan Wallace WR Bal 131 22 26.80 5.87
26 Mac Jones QB NE 15 21 27.00 5.16
27 Chuba Hubbard RB Car 126 20 27.55 5.09
28 Nico Collins WR Hou 89 21 28.05 5.87
29 Tutu Atwell WR LAR 57 20 30.95 6.52
30 Josh Palmer WR LAC 77 14 31.60 8.31
31 R. Stevenson RB NE 120 18 32.60 5.49
32 A. Schwartz WR Cle 91 17 34.20 5.03
33 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 194 10 36.20 6.58
34 Jaelon Darden WR TB 129 14 36.60 4.75
35 D. Fitzpatrick WR Ten 109 10 36.85 5.00
36 Kylin Hill RB GB 256 13 37.05 4.80
37 Jer. Jefferson RB Det 257 10 37.10 5.34
38 Seth Williams WR Den 219 13 37.40 4.27
39 Brevin Jordan TE Hou 147 11 37.75 3.97
40 Tommy Tremble TE Car 83 8 38.55 3.62
Early consensus rankings - average and SD - max/min, from @Faust links and other sites.
woodstock
Footballguy
I can tell you now that the draft rankings by writers and the ones by players in the other thread of "post your rookie drafts" are very, very different. Sermon is 1.08-1.12 and in the rankings never tops the top twelve, other than Bloom's. A lot of the rankers and drafts are different. It would behoove people to check that thread if they want an idea of where players are really going.
joey
Footballguy
Exactly. RB-needy teams (me) might reach on a player like Sermon or Carter since there seem to be so many WRs with either questions or in the same big tier, so why go WR when you can likely get a similar WR later in the round or in the next round, and take the position-scarce RB early.
woodstock
Footballguy
And analysts would claim that given those backs' draft capital, long-term it's a bad reach for them. I see their point. But they're not playing with your team. They're usually analysts that have tons of teams and can be dispassionate about scoring in the long-run over a large range of outcomes with a bunch of squads. That's part of the reason why there's a disconnect there.
It's interesting, the disconnect between people that have the teams and people that rank the players that way. It would seem to me that neither side is stupid, per se, as some analysts would make you feel, but that there really is a different set of circumstances for each selection made.
That's surely a defense of somebody like myself, who might reach at RB, but when so many people are doing it (and I've looked at twelve or thirteen drafts and Sermon never leaves the top twelve) you have to wonder if it's a gigantic collective mistake, or whether there's a darn good reason for it that isn't quantifiable.
joey
Footballguy
Exactly.
And in my specific circumstance, I am RB-needy, I hold the 1.6, 1.10 and 1.11 and 2.5 picks. So I read I "should" take one of Devonta or Waddle (even with questions around their size) at 6, assuming 3RB/Pitts/Chase go to 1-5.
But when I run the scenarios for MY TEAM (with Hill/Claypool/CDavis/Shenault/Pittman at WR), I can see myself missing out on BOTH Sermon and Carter between my 1.6 and 1.10 picks, so I’d rather grab a Sermon and hope Carter makes it to 1.10, and/or take the best of the remaining WR prospects, of which there seems to be a big old tier of similarly rated guys to chose from.
woodstock
Footballguy
Check that rookie draft thread and you'll get a better idea of where the guys are going. Even check the Superflex ones and discount the QBs. Get a raw count on the players and you'll have a better idea than most ADP or, especially, ranking sources will give you (depending on when your draft is, of course. Mine is soon and I can't wait for monthly ADPs to reflect the changes. There may be searchable ADP sources by date, I'm just not aware of them). I'm not sure what to tell you about your particular team or what a good analyst would say about your starting requirements and long-term success. I heard one analyst discounting Sermon because you might miss out on Elijah or Rondale Moore.
#### that. That's what I say to that.
It used to be better (you could select draft date ranges and you'd see how many drafts participated) but you can get a somewhat time relevant ADP for dynasty rookie drafts at myfantasyleague.com.
You can't filter scoring beyond PPR/non-PPR or toggle SF/non-SF, but it's something. Looks like there's a lot of SF leagues drafting early. If you take out the QB's Sermon is going neck and neck with E. Moore at 1.09-1.10 in drafts conducted post-NFL Draft.
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woodstock
Footballguy
Wow. Thanks. Yep, that looks about right and about what I'm seeing in the mocks posted here, too. Looks like you need to have a first-round pick to grab him in 1 QB settings. Carter is a few spots below him, so beginning of the second, looks like. Draft capital be damned, it seems.
