So, I am putting together the first edition of the rookie 100 for 2006. I am still tweaking the rankings to reflect my gut feelings and all star game/practice performances. I hope to get the first top 100 out sometime next week - for now, I figured I'd share my early thoughts on the position by position outlook for anyone obsessed enough to be planning a rookie draft strategy, or those with early drafts. Of course, the combine, pro days, and the draft will blow a lot of this up...
QB - Matt Leinart and Vince Young are rock solid first round picks. The #5 should guarantee you one of them. Jay Cutler should be a late first/early second depending on the needs of the teams picking in the 7-10 range. Omar Jacobs is the only other prospect that will definitely get a shot to start down the line - he should be a mid-late 2nd round rookie pick, and has nearly the same upside (tools-wise) as the big 3 QBs. After those 4, the outlook is very bleak. I like Reggie McNeal and Brad Smith, but mainly because of their possible value at other positions. They should be picked in the 40s or 50s. Pinegar and Gradkowski are very solid, but not overwhelming from a talent standpoint - again 40s or 50s. Whitehurst should also sneak in there because he looks the part, although I worry about his inconsistency. There are any number of guys worth fliers in the 50-100 range depending on who stands out to you, but its a very underwhelming group after the top 4. If you're looking for help at QB, the #5 pick is the place to be. If you really want Young or Leinart and they go at #4, you get Maroney, who can probably be traded for any number of good fantasy QBs.
RB - There is a clear big 3 that should be the top 3 in every draft - Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams, and LenDale White. I think Lawrence Maroney should be 4th, but some will differ. Brian Calhoun will go in the 5-10 range, and Joseph Addai should go in the 10-15 range. If you want Maurice Drew or Jerome Harrison, you might have to have a pick in the 10-15 range also, because someone will reach for them. After that, you have a lot of RBs of different shapes, sizes, and styles. Everyone will have a favorite, and an RB that goes in the mid 20s in one draft could last til the 40s or 50s in another. Washington, Henderson, Bell, Hall, Norwood, Howard, Humes, Moore, Whitehead, Daniels - they all bring something interesting to the table. At least one or two of these guys will end up being huge steals in the 3rd/4th round of rookie drafts. Draft destination will do more to sort these guys out than at any other position.
WR - Brutal. Just Brutal. Santonio Holmes is legit and should go in the top 10 in every draft. Like the QBs, depending on the needs of the teams in your leagues top 10, you might have to be at #5 to be assured of getting him. After that, there are lots of WRs with the tools to succeed, but none as sure as Holmes. I like Sinorice Moss and Demetrius Williams as early/mid 2nd rounders. The size/speed guys like Jon Orr, Todd Watkins, and Chad Jackson should go in the teens or early/mid 20s. I also like Greg Lee and Brandon Marshall (my #1 sleeper at WR) in the late 20s. There are lots of other solid WRs, but they are not guys that look especially good for fantasy - more dependable types like Mike Hass, Derek Hagan, Jason Avant, and interesting big WRs that arent necessarily gamebreakers like Maurice Stovall, Hank Baskett, and Martin Nance. There are also some other very good sleepers, such as Marques Colston, Travis Wilson and Greg Jennings. All in all, there should be many more solid WR prospects than you're used to seeing on the board into the 40s and 50s.
TE - This is one of the best classes of pass catching TEs the draft has ever seen. Vernon Davis and Marcedes Lewis should be top 10 picks, and both seem destined to be stalwart starting fantasy TEs, with a shot be in that Gonzo/Gates/Shockey tier. The 6-8 range is a great place to be if you want one of these guys. Dominique Byrd is another one of my favorites in this draft, and he could go anywhere from late first to mid 2nd. His ability to make plays downfield is right there with Davis and Lewis. Leonard Pope could go in the teens, but i dont seem him as athletically gifted as a receiver as the top 3. There are at least 3 other players that should be solid fantasy TEs - David Thomas, Tim Day, and Joel Klopfenstein - these guys look like great value picks once you get in the 40s/50s, but their upside is limited compared to the top 4. Another one of my sleepers is Garrett Mills, who is a gifted pass catcher, but is currently getting moved to FB. I highly recommend looking at Mills once you get in the 50s.
DE - Mario Williams looks like an impact DE, and Tamba Hali has the motor to rack up tackles despite no real elite tools. Mathias Kiwanuka has the profile of a sack artist, but he might not rack up tackles in run support (thanks TICK) I see Williams in the late 30s/40s and Hali/Kiwanuka in the 50s. Elvis Dumervil, Darryl Tapp, and Eric Henderson are interesting late round flier picks for leagues that weight sacks (3x or more points than tackles), but Williams and Hali are the guys you need to know here.
DT - Brodrick Bunkley has the right set of skills to be a starting DT for fantasy - the burst and strength to get in the backfield consistently and motor to get some tackles in pursuit. He's a guy to look at once you get in garbage time picks. I don't see any other DTs worth drafting - Watson and Ngata will be gap cloggers and probably not rack up stats in the NFL. In even the deepest of leagues, startable DTs are on the waiver wire. I do not recommend using picks on them.
LB - There are 4 truly elite LBs for fantasy in this draft - A.J. Hawk, Chad Greenway, Abdul Hodge, and DQwell Jackson. Hodge (thumper like Thurman) and Jackson (QB of the D like Tatupu) will be solid MLBs (the fantasy gold position for IDP leagues) at worst, with top 10 upside. Hawk will be a terror no matter where he lines up, and Greenway looks like a top WLB in the making with his speed and size. None of these 4 should last past 25 in rookie drafts. I could see Hawk in the 12-18 range, and the rest in the 15-25 range. Ernie Sims and Demeco Ryans should be the next guys off the board at LB, along with MLB size/speed prospect Kai Parham, and hardnosed MLB Freddie Roach. All of these guys are solid picks in the 25-35 range if you're looking to reload at LB. After that, there are all kinds of athletic OLB types and solid MLB prospects to be had. This is a deeeeeep draft at LB, and this is good news if you need help there - solid LB prospects should be on the board well into the 60s and 70s.
DB - I see Darnell Bing as the stud DB of this rookie draft. he's got the skills to be a do everything safety. he should go in the 30s-40s. Ko Simpson is another elite safety prospect that should be gone sometime in the 40s. Michael Huff and Jimmy Williams could be FS, could be CB, I dont know - its really hard to gauge their fantasy impact without seeing where they end up. I would take them in the 50s right now. There some other solid SS prospects, better than any in the 05 draft, to be had in the 50s and later. Guys like Greg Blue, Dwayne Slay (either of which could be moved to LB a la Thomas Davis), Bernard Pollard, and Daniel Bullocks are all worth looking at in the later rounds if you need help at safety. Roman Harper, Donte Whitner, Calvin Lowry and Pat Watkins are also solid prospects and are all worth late round fliers. This is much much better year for safety prospects than last year. Like LB, good news for you if you're looking to reload. I dont think any CB is worth drafting this year, except possibly Antonio Cromartie if he checks out physically, and maybe Alan Zemaitis. I like them because they are physical and big enough to rack up tackles in the running game. The other top CBs are more straight cover guys, although they will be startable when they get picked on unmercifully in their first years as starters. Of course, Huff and Williams are draftable at CB if they are moved there by their team. In even the deepest of leagues, startable CBs are on the waiver wire. I do not recommend using picks on them, unless you see them becoming truly elite (top 5-10)
Hope this helps!
QB - Matt Leinart and Vince Young are rock solid first round picks. The #5 should guarantee you one of them. Jay Cutler should be a late first/early second depending on the needs of the teams picking in the 7-10 range. Omar Jacobs is the only other prospect that will definitely get a shot to start down the line - he should be a mid-late 2nd round rookie pick, and has nearly the same upside (tools-wise) as the big 3 QBs. After those 4, the outlook is very bleak. I like Reggie McNeal and Brad Smith, but mainly because of their possible value at other positions. They should be picked in the 40s or 50s. Pinegar and Gradkowski are very solid, but not overwhelming from a talent standpoint - again 40s or 50s. Whitehurst should also sneak in there because he looks the part, although I worry about his inconsistency. There are any number of guys worth fliers in the 50-100 range depending on who stands out to you, but its a very underwhelming group after the top 4. If you're looking for help at QB, the #5 pick is the place to be. If you really want Young or Leinart and they go at #4, you get Maroney, who can probably be traded for any number of good fantasy QBs.
RB - There is a clear big 3 that should be the top 3 in every draft - Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams, and LenDale White. I think Lawrence Maroney should be 4th, but some will differ. Brian Calhoun will go in the 5-10 range, and Joseph Addai should go in the 10-15 range. If you want Maurice Drew or Jerome Harrison, you might have to have a pick in the 10-15 range also, because someone will reach for them. After that, you have a lot of RBs of different shapes, sizes, and styles. Everyone will have a favorite, and an RB that goes in the mid 20s in one draft could last til the 40s or 50s in another. Washington, Henderson, Bell, Hall, Norwood, Howard, Humes, Moore, Whitehead, Daniels - they all bring something interesting to the table. At least one or two of these guys will end up being huge steals in the 3rd/4th round of rookie drafts. Draft destination will do more to sort these guys out than at any other position.
WR - Brutal. Just Brutal. Santonio Holmes is legit and should go in the top 10 in every draft. Like the QBs, depending on the needs of the teams in your leagues top 10, you might have to be at #5 to be assured of getting him. After that, there are lots of WRs with the tools to succeed, but none as sure as Holmes. I like Sinorice Moss and Demetrius Williams as early/mid 2nd rounders. The size/speed guys like Jon Orr, Todd Watkins, and Chad Jackson should go in the teens or early/mid 20s. I also like Greg Lee and Brandon Marshall (my #1 sleeper at WR) in the late 20s. There are lots of other solid WRs, but they are not guys that look especially good for fantasy - more dependable types like Mike Hass, Derek Hagan, Jason Avant, and interesting big WRs that arent necessarily gamebreakers like Maurice Stovall, Hank Baskett, and Martin Nance. There are also some other very good sleepers, such as Marques Colston, Travis Wilson and Greg Jennings. All in all, there should be many more solid WR prospects than you're used to seeing on the board into the 40s and 50s.
TE - This is one of the best classes of pass catching TEs the draft has ever seen. Vernon Davis and Marcedes Lewis should be top 10 picks, and both seem destined to be stalwart starting fantasy TEs, with a shot be in that Gonzo/Gates/Shockey tier. The 6-8 range is a great place to be if you want one of these guys. Dominique Byrd is another one of my favorites in this draft, and he could go anywhere from late first to mid 2nd. His ability to make plays downfield is right there with Davis and Lewis. Leonard Pope could go in the teens, but i dont seem him as athletically gifted as a receiver as the top 3. There are at least 3 other players that should be solid fantasy TEs - David Thomas, Tim Day, and Joel Klopfenstein - these guys look like great value picks once you get in the 40s/50s, but their upside is limited compared to the top 4. Another one of my sleepers is Garrett Mills, who is a gifted pass catcher, but is currently getting moved to FB. I highly recommend looking at Mills once you get in the 50s.
DE - Mario Williams looks like an impact DE, and Tamba Hali has the motor to rack up tackles despite no real elite tools. Mathias Kiwanuka has the profile of a sack artist, but he might not rack up tackles in run support (thanks TICK) I see Williams in the late 30s/40s and Hali/Kiwanuka in the 50s. Elvis Dumervil, Darryl Tapp, and Eric Henderson are interesting late round flier picks for leagues that weight sacks (3x or more points than tackles), but Williams and Hali are the guys you need to know here.
DT - Brodrick Bunkley has the right set of skills to be a starting DT for fantasy - the burst and strength to get in the backfield consistently and motor to get some tackles in pursuit. He's a guy to look at once you get in garbage time picks. I don't see any other DTs worth drafting - Watson and Ngata will be gap cloggers and probably not rack up stats in the NFL. In even the deepest of leagues, startable DTs are on the waiver wire. I do not recommend using picks on them.
LB - There are 4 truly elite LBs for fantasy in this draft - A.J. Hawk, Chad Greenway, Abdul Hodge, and DQwell Jackson. Hodge (thumper like Thurman) and Jackson (QB of the D like Tatupu) will be solid MLBs (the fantasy gold position for IDP leagues) at worst, with top 10 upside. Hawk will be a terror no matter where he lines up, and Greenway looks like a top WLB in the making with his speed and size. None of these 4 should last past 25 in rookie drafts. I could see Hawk in the 12-18 range, and the rest in the 15-25 range. Ernie Sims and Demeco Ryans should be the next guys off the board at LB, along with MLB size/speed prospect Kai Parham, and hardnosed MLB Freddie Roach. All of these guys are solid picks in the 25-35 range if you're looking to reload at LB. After that, there are all kinds of athletic OLB types and solid MLB prospects to be had. This is a deeeeeep draft at LB, and this is good news if you need help there - solid LB prospects should be on the board well into the 60s and 70s.
DB - I see Darnell Bing as the stud DB of this rookie draft. he's got the skills to be a do everything safety. he should go in the 30s-40s. Ko Simpson is another elite safety prospect that should be gone sometime in the 40s. Michael Huff and Jimmy Williams could be FS, could be CB, I dont know - its really hard to gauge their fantasy impact without seeing where they end up. I would take them in the 50s right now. There some other solid SS prospects, better than any in the 05 draft, to be had in the 50s and later. Guys like Greg Blue, Dwayne Slay (either of which could be moved to LB a la Thomas Davis), Bernard Pollard, and Daniel Bullocks are all worth looking at in the later rounds if you need help at safety. Roman Harper, Donte Whitner, Calvin Lowry and Pat Watkins are also solid prospects and are all worth late round fliers. This is much much better year for safety prospects than last year. Like LB, good news for you if you're looking to reload. I dont think any CB is worth drafting this year, except possibly Antonio Cromartie if he checks out physically, and maybe Alan Zemaitis. I like them because they are physical and big enough to rack up tackles in the running game. The other top CBs are more straight cover guys, although they will be startable when they get picked on unmercifully in their first years as starters. Of course, Huff and Williams are draftable at CB if they are moved there by their team. In even the deepest of leagues, startable CBs are on the waiver wire. I do not recommend using picks on them, unless you see them becoming truly elite (top 5-10)
Hope this helps!
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, but I'm convinced to never draft a rookie WR (starting in 2006), since it usually takes a few years for them to develop. In dynasty leagues I find it easier to steal WRs away from owners who give up on them after a couple years, just as they are about to break out 
No sense taking up a roster spot in shallow leagues for a rookie WR, IMO.
I pimped Cutler so hard, that I'm trying not to completely destroy any credibility my opinions may have, so I've held off on the TO comparison (but, I have been thinking it for awhile). It's crazy, but the catches I've seen on a highlight vid, and the way he looked like a man among boys at the Hula Bowl (and all season)... it's all very TO-like. So, what the heck, I'll be honest. Marshall is the best WR in the draft. There, I said it. My other option was to say, "Sssshhhhh."
with the Marshall kool aid.
I needed a QB more in that league and like Jason Campbell enough to have made that trade.
