Dynasty hat vs redraft hat - a philosophical discussion (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hi sharks,

Gonna get real for a second. I wear two hats. No, not the Jimmy hats of hip hop lore, but the figurative hat.

I’m a grinder. Every year, every dynasty roster I grind it out year-round. This year I made Mixon, Chase, Dotson, Chase Brown, Deebo, McLaurin, and others targets of my various dynasty rosters, I tried to shore up weaknesses, while building for the future. For my aging win now team, I leaned into it and got even older to try to go back to back.

So as my redraft league draft approaches (8/31) I find myself needing to take my dynasty hat off, and as with every year it’s a struggle. I end up targeting/valuing players in redraft as if I’m in dynasty mindset.

So how do you do it? How do you take off your dynasty hat to draft redraft? How do I stop valuing age over beauty?

The struggle is real.

 

[OnTheReg]

I love you for posting this thread. I am so torn in the same way and don’t have an easy answer: trying to strike the balance is very difficult.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I love you for posting this thread. I am so torn in the same way and don’t have an easy answer: trying to strike the balance is very difficult.

Feels so schizophrenic.

I want to talk myself out of the exciting rookies, and avoid avoiding the James Conner, Deebo, Joe Mixon types I tend to avoid in dynasty.

Or the “buy low” guys like Dotson, who may not deliver for 2 years.

It’s a completely different mindset, and I’m starting to think that the only way to approach my redraft team is with the same mindset as I am approaching my win-now aging dynasty team.

And alcohol. Lots of alcohol.

 

[menobrown]

How do I stop valuing age over beauty?

Dynasty actually helped me to understand how much age matters in redraft as well. Obviously not the same thing as drafting Derrick Henry in round two of a redraft vs startup but I've come to understand more the impact of age and how that in and itself is a risk factor.

 

[Jayded]

Seeing players take time to develop in playing dynasty should help make better choices in redraft.

As a dynasty player you know how little CJ Strouds there are and how many more later year breakouts there are. Let others chase the rookie ; take the high floor, consistent vet.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Let others chase the rookie ; take the high floor, consistent vet.

Sometimes chasing the rookie pays off though.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

When I want to take off a hat I put it into my hat box

 

[Gatorade]

This will be the first year I have been in a redraft in a while. Had to take that dynasty hat off recently when my draft started. Beforehand I just compared the redraft and dynasty rankings here at FBG to give me an idea of players to move up or down. Then I compared that with the ADP rankings on sleeper to fine tune that a little more. Thru four picks so far, my team still seems kind of young. Guess I'll have to draft the old dudes late.

 

[joey]

Where dynasty helps me is in picking those late round rookie RB picks who can end up in a starting gig during the year.

 

[kutta]

Where dynasty helps me is in picking those late round rookie RB picks who can end up in a starting gig during the year.

I agree with this.
I think we all know the rankings and who we like and don’t like in both dynasty and redraft.
But guaranteed, no redraft-only player has done the research that dynasty players have done on the rookies. That’s what you need to exploit.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I'm with you. What I do is build my draft board / cheat sheet using actual projections and league settings and stick to it. I let my leaguemates take the shiny new rookies and focus on the guys that the data suggest will be high value at their ADP. I'll also allow myself a couple "my guys" (usually Bears players) that I can take slightly above ADP to keep me interested because I find my interest in redraft wanes if I have a bunch of Packers on my roster!

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

no redraft-only player has done the research that dynasty players have done on the rookies

jokes on you, I don't do any research!

 

[zed2283]

I don't really think it's that hard to switch hats, or maybe that's my "cognitive bias" showing.

I think the only slight effect is that maybe I reach for a rookie that I wanted in dynasty but didn't get.

One aspect that I find very interesting/useful is that I'm in redraft leagues with the same guys I'm in dynasty with, and watching what they do in redraft gives me insight to their dynasty team. For example, if I see someone picking/bidding high on one of my dynasty players, I know maybe he'll value that player more in a trade.

 

[Hurl Bruce]

At what point in a dynasty startup draft do you flip and start targeting "old" guys?

We're in round 7 right now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

no redraft-only player has done the research that dynasty players have done on the rookies

jokes on you, I don't do any research!

There’s actually something very zen about this.

I have a friend who’s won a couple years who actually takes this approach.

At the draft he opens the CBS rankings for our league, and that’s his draft sheet. He doesn’t do a stitch of research. It’s his only league.

So while us “sharks” are brimming with data points, making hard choices round to round, tryna strategize where to pick our sleepers and breakout candidates, he’s just humming along, picking the next guy on his list.

Most years he gets burned by some bad picks. But he’s also had 2 LCG wins in the last 10 years.

I pour countless hours of research into the grind year-round, and in the last 10 years I have (checks notes) … uh, 2 LCG wins.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't really think it's that hard to switch hats, or maybe that's my "cognitive bias" showing.

I think the only slight effect is that maybe I reach for a rookie that I wanted in dynasty but didn't get.

This is actually my only issue as well. Not just player I didn’t get, but players I like more in dynasty - which in redraft can easily be wasted picks.

One aspect that I find very interesting/useful is that I'm in redraft leagues with the same guys I'm in dynasty with, and watching what they do in redraft gives me insight to their dynasty team. For example, if I see someone picking/bidding high on one of my dynasty players, I know maybe he'll value that player more in a trade.

Solid point. I have the same - 3 people in my IDP redraft are in my 2 IDP 16 team dynasty leagues (1 in one, 2 in both) and it definitely gives me insight to that, as well as knowing what players they like during the draft.

The challenge there is, in a 16-team format you might not love everyone on your roster. I remember once thinking I sniped a LB because I know the dude picking after me had him in a dynasty league, and he immediately chirped up “man, I’ve been trying to trade that bum for a month”.

It is definitely possible to outthink yourself with that.

 

[zed2283]

no redraft-only player has done the research that dynasty players have done on the rookies

jokes on you, I don't do any research!

There’s actually something very zen about this.

I have a friend who’s won a couple years who actually takes this approach.

At the draft he opens the CBS rankings for our league, and that’s his draft sheet. He doesn’t do a stitch of research. It’s his only league.

So while us “sharks” are brimming with data points, making hard choices round to round, tryna strategize where to pick our sleepers and breakout candidates, he’s just humming along, picking the next guy on his list.

Most years he gets burned by some bad picks. But he’s also had 2 LCG wins in the last 10 years.

I pour countless hours of research into the grind year-round, and in the last 10 years I have (checks notes) … uh, 2 LCG wins.

Just goes to show that, as much as we hate to admit it, it's mostly luck.

And the consensus rankings are usually accurate.

Auto-draft teams usually do pretty well.

 

[-OZ-]

Just goes to show that, as much as we hate to admit it, it's mostly luck.

And the consensus rankings are usually accurate.

Auto-draft teams usually do pretty well

It’s eerie just how analogous FF is to investing. Luck, generally speaking the markets have everything known factored in, and automating helps. Similarly, calling a few shots while mostly going chalk can be a good method.

 

[kutta]

no redraft-only player has done the research that dynasty players have done on the rookies

jokes on you, I don't do any research!

There’s actually something very zen about this.

I have a friend who’s won a couple years who actually takes this approach.

At the draft he opens the CBS rankings for our league, and that’s his draft sheet. He doesn’t do a stitch of research. It’s his only league.

So while us “sharks” are brimming with data points, making hard choices round to round, tryna strategize where to pick our sleepers and breakout candidates, he’s just humming along, picking the next guy on his list.

Most years he gets burned by some bad picks. But he’s also had 2 LCG wins in the last 10 years.

I pour countless hours of research into the grind year-round, and in the last 10 years I have (checks notes) … uh, 2 LCG wins.

That doesn’t sound like any fun. I love the high of being “right” on a guy, and I freaking hate being wrong. But those emotional swings are what makes this stupid hobby so much fun for me.