Dynasty Joe's Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

Back to Crabtree, I would much rather gamble on upside than take his safe WR2/3 numbers. That means taking guys like Moore, Brown, Decker and even (Yikes!) DHB over him.

Why doesn't Crabtree have the upside those guys have? While draft position doesn't mean everything the guy was a top 10 draft pick because he was/is a talent. He's a very fluid player with decent speed and good hands. I think the perception of him would be a whole lot different if the Niners had any type of QB play. Even in a "career year" for Alex Smith the guy barely broke 3,000 yards and had only 17 TDs.

The problem is that the Niners are more than likely to sign Smith on for a few more years(3 was the latest I heard)so I tend to believe that unless the playcalling is different he seems like the safer play instead of the high upside guy.With that said Crabtree will still be a very good WR2 with how he is used.I also believe he early season injuries hampered his play as well so I can see a slight bump in his numbers next year given good health.

That's certainly an issue.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The problem is that the Niners are more than likely to sign Smith on for a few more years(3 was the latest I heard)so I tend to believe that unless the playcalling is different he seems like the safer play instead of the high upside guy.

NFL = not for long. KC hosted a playoff game last year. Now it's just as likely Kyle Orton will QB KC as it is Matt Cassel will. On Halloween Buffalo was 5-2 and had Fitzpatrick tied up for 6 more years. Now, they could easily go a different direction. After waiting 3 years to be a starter, Philly gave Kevin Kolb one half and one concussion before switching to Vick. Trent Dilfer was not the starting QB for Baltimore the year after they won the SB there, in fact he wasn't a starting QB at all.Smith's leash is not long. SF has Kaepernick waiting. Josh Johnson will be a FA and could still sign up to be the backup. Anything can happen, and his upside is still what it is. Especially when you look at his end of the year production which is already starting to reach that upside.

 

[tom22406]

The problem is that the Niners are more than likely to sign Smith on for a few more years(3 was the latest I heard)so I tend to believe that unless the playcalling is different he seems like the safer play instead of the high upside guy.

NFL = not for long. KC hosted a playoff game last year. Now it's just as likely Kyle Orton will QB KC as it is Matt Cassel will. On Halloween Buffalo was 5-2 and had Fitzpatrick tied up for 6 more years. Now, they could easily go a different direction. After waiting 3 years to be a starter, Philly gave Kevin Kolb one half and one concussion before switching to Vick. Trent Dilfer was not the starting QB for Baltimore the year after they won the SB there, in fact he wasn't a starting QB at all.Smith's leash is not long. SF has Kaepernick waiting. Josh Johnson will be a FA and could still sign up to be the backup. Anything can happen, and his upside is still what it is. Especially when you look at his end of the year production which is already starting to reach that upside.

I am no Smith fan at all so I agree with most of this.I was more talking about how Crabtree could be limited with Smith at QB.Smith is just a very average QB IMO so seeing a change would not surprise me in the least.Problem is I think Harbaugh will be loyal to Smith unless he falters for a long stretch so I see him being the QB for most of next season as well(baring injury).

 

[matttyl]

But these are dynasty rankings. Maybe just a guess, but I think that Crabtree will be in San Fran as a starter longer than Alex Smith will. Crabtree is under contract for 3 more years there, and it may turn out to be GOOD news for him if he were to wind up elsewhere.

 

[Ilov80s]

With medical advances, I think Detroit has a lot of confidence that LeShoure is ready to go next year. Look at 3 recent Achilles tears amongst pro athletes: Piston Jonas Jerebko tore his on October 2010. He was ready for the NBA season and is averaging 34 minutes, 12 points and 8 boards which are career best numbers. Demaryius Thomas tore his after the 2010 season. He was ready by October and ended the year with 5 solid games: 25 catches, 448 yards, 3 TDs. In the EPL, Bolton's Sam Ricketts ruptured his achiles in February, 2011 and returned this past weekend. Young athletes are recovered, rehabbed, and returning in <12 months.

That's interesting, but none of those are as demanding as NFL RB. And being able to come back and play is very different from being able to exceed at RB.Leshoure was not an ubertalent, just a good back with a great college season. If there's any loss in ability, he could become ordinary. Thomas had 2 things going for him 1) his talent level was pretty high to begin with and 2) some of his attributes cannot be messed with like height and catch radius. The floor of a post-Achilles Thomas was BMW. The floor of a post-Achilles Leshoure is John Clay or Anthony Dixon.Elton Brand is an interesting comparison because he was undersized for being a PF; he needed burst to be able to fight for rebounds and compete inside. Even though he came back quickly (missed less than a season) and was able to be serviceable, he was never the same guy. Leshoure will be back in uniform, no doubt, but will he be anything more than a plodder, Dixon/Clay fringe player?We'll know how confident Detroit is in Leshoure when they decide whether to resign Kevin Smith.

Elton Brand was also injured 5 years ago. Medical advances are coming a long quickly. Think about what a torn ACL meant 5 years ago vs today. Wes Welker and Brandon Pettigrew were back playing in less than a year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Back to Crabtree, I would much rather gamble on upside than take his safe WR2/3 numbers. That means taking guys like Moore, Brown, Decker and even (Yikes!) DHB over him.

Why doesn't Crabtree have the upside those guys have? While draft position doesn't mean everything the guy was a top 10 draft pick because he was/is a talent. He's a very fluid player with decent speed and good hands. I think the perception of him would be a whole lot different if the Niners had any type of QB play. Even in a "career year" for Alex Smith the guy barely broke 3,000 yards and had only 17 TDs.

I don't buy the first 3 year comparison. I think it is completely useless in this setting. A lot of players can produce the numbers that Roddy did in his first 2 seasons - keep in mind his situation wasn't ideal. But, not a lot of players end up being one of the top 5-7 WRs in the game, capable of doing what Roddy did, with the attention he was getting. I don't see Crabtree and Roddy as similar physically, in how they play. Roddy is more athletic, more explosive, and plays as though he understands that he is bigger than the people trying to cover and tackle him.think Crabtree is average and the conversation we are having is about as simple as that. Not as simple as me being right - time will tell - but as simple our opinions differ. Average is a subjective term, and surely Crabtree is the best WR on his team by a wide margin. I just don't plan on that being the case for long, however. By the time Smith is out of the way and a more capable player is in his place, I think it is very likely that Crabtree is relegated to role that suits him better: WR2/3 intermediate possession guy. Players have scored a lot of points in that role, but I won't bet on that happening. When you look at the flashes that Crabtree has shown, they are lacking in comparison to the flashes of the other guys, even if Crabtree has been more consistent during his career, thus far. I am not ready to accept Crabtree's last 8 games as his value moving forward, especially when 4 of those came against the Rams and Cardinals.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Crabtree's flashes 2011 edition

52 yard TD - CB ran a 4.3 40 at the combine and Crabtree has 1 1/2 steps on him.

38 yard catch - stutter step fools Patrick Peterson

29 yard catch - Patrick Peterson and 2 other Cardinals whiff on tackling him

41 yard catch - Game winning catch

38 yard catch - Beats man coverage on Nnamdi and sheds a few tackles

I love the clip of Moore beating 2 CBs for the ball in the air as much as anyone, but to say Crabtree is just a guy is pretty wrong. He has it.

 

[Concept Coop]

Crabtree's flashes 2011 edition

52 yard TD - CB ran a 4.3 40 at the combine and Crabtree has 1 1/2 steps on him.

38 yard catch - stutter step fools Patrick Peterson

29 yard catch - Patrick Peterson and 2 other Cardinals whiff on tackling him

41 yard catch - Game winning catch

38 yard catch - Beats man coverage on Nnamdi and sheds a few tackles

I love the clip of Moore beating 2 CBs for the ball in the air as much as anyone, but to say Crabtree is just a guy is pretty wrong. He has it.

The clips won't play on my phone, but I will watch them when I can.Crabtree had one of the higher target % in the league, but a very low Yard Per Target, at 7.7. He accounted for over 1/4 of the team's targets. That can't keep up, should the 49ers expect to improve their offense. Crabtree has the advantage of a running game that teams aim to shutdown, before sliding coverage to Crabtree. And, with 7.7 yrds/tgt - they have no reason to change the way they defend him/49ers passing game.

The only numbers that stand out, when looking at Crabtree, is the amount of times he was targeted. He catch rate was average, but that is less impressive, when his "Deep pass attempts" were less than 25% of his targets.

Nothing about Crabtree's numbers suggest he does anything at an above average rate. NOTHING.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Crabtree had one of the higher target % in the league, but a very low Yard Per Target, at 7.7. He accounted for over 1/4 of the team's targets.

Roddy White's "yard per target" the past 3 years: 7.0, 7.8, 7.3. Is Roddy White elite?ETA: Did the Falcons upgrade their pass offense this year with little reflection in White's target or yard per target numbers?

 

[Concept Coop]

Crabtree had one of the higher target % in the league, but a very low Yard Per Target, at 7.7. He accounted for over 1/4 of the team's targets.

Roddy White's "yard per target" the past 3 years: 7.0, 7.8, 7.3. Is Roddy White elite?

Yes. If coverage was a charted stat, it would suggest such. When Crabtree gets the attention that Roddy does, and and increase in targets and target %, on a team that passes much more, AND his per touch production improves, we can bring Crabtree into the Roddy conversation. Until then, it is very premature.

 

[Concept Coop]

ETA: Did the Falcons upgrade their pass offense this year with little reflection in White's target or yard per target numbers?

Yes. Yet, he still led the NLF in target %. So, the Falcons got better, added a very good target in Jones, and Roddy still demanded 30% of the teams targets, all while getting more attention than Crabtree.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If coverage was a charted stat, it would suggest such. When Crabtree gets the attention that Roddy does, and and increase in targets and target %, on a team that passes much more, AND his per touch production improves, we can bring Crabtree into the Roddy conversation. Until then, it is very premature.

That's fine. We're arguing upside, not current value. Crabtree is still a speculative asset. Per White's example, I don't think his "per target production" is an issue if the volume increases.

 

[Concept Coop]

If coverage was a charted stat, it would suggest such. When Crabtree gets the attention that Roddy does, and and increase in targets and target %, on a team that passes much more, AND his per touch production improves, we can bring Crabtree into the Roddy conversation. Until then, it is very premature.

That's fine. We're arguing upside, not current value. Crabtree is still a speculative asset. Per White's example, I don't think his "per target production" is an issue if the volume increases.

5 people had a target rate higher than Crabtree: Fitz, Roddy, Welker, Marshall, and Bowe. Add Crabtree to that list and play "One of these things doesn't belong." Crabtree's targets are not going to increase. The 5 ahead of him get targets because they are elite players. Crabtree got them because his team had little else to offer through the passing game.In short, Crabtree has very likely met his peak, when it comes to target %. He needs to drastically improve his per target production to produce better fantasy football numbers. I don't see anything to suggest that happens, when watching him play.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I can understand why people would be down on Crabtree. I really can. His holdout, subsequent injuries, bad attitude, and mediocre production are cause for concern.

However, I think there is a good chance Crabtree is in the process of turning his career around. His attitude has done an about face this season, and is now considered a team first guy. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ycn-10782065

The biggest issue for Crabtree's fantasy potential right now is the QB situation in SF.

Alex Smith threw for 200 yards or less in 10 of 16 games this year. He had one game over 275 yards all year. (291) He threw for 17 TDs on the season. That doesn't leave much room for fantasy stardom amongst your pass catchers.

There is no doubt in my mind Harbaugh would love to run an uptempo professional level passing offense. The talent level of his QB does not allow that at this point however. Harbaugh may be praising Alex Smith, calling him their guy of the future, but make no mistake about it, they will try to upgrade that position asap. Whether that is Kaepernick or someone outside the organization is yet unknown.

If, and or when they do get that QB, I think Crabtree has Nicks/Boldin type potential.

Think about it this way. Of the top 12WRs this year, only Fitz and Harvin didn't have exceptional QBs, and Harvin gets plenty of his value from the RB position.

 

[The Captain]

Please rename this thread "Michael Crabtree Dynasty Debate".

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[Concept Coop]

I can understand why people would be down on Crabtree. I really can. His holdout, subsequent injuries, bad attitude, and mediocre production are cause for concern.

However, I think there is a good chance Crabtree is in the process of turning his career around. His attitude has done an about face this season, and is now considered a team first guy. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ycn-10782065

The biggest issue for Crabtree's fantasy potential right now is the QB situation in SF.

Alex Smith threw for 200 yards or less in 10 of 16 games this year. He had one game over 275 yards all year. (291) He threw for 17 TDs on the season. That doesn't leave much room for fantasy stardom amongst your pass catchers.

There is no doubt in my mind Harbaugh would love to run an uptempo professional level passing offense. The talent level of his QB does not allow that at this point however. Harbaugh may be praising Alex Smith, calling him their guy of the future, but make no mistake about it, they will try to upgrade that position asap. Whether that is Kaepernick or someone outside the organization is yet unknown.

If, and or when they do get that QB, I think Crabtree has Nicks/Boldin type potential.

Think about it this way. Of the top 12WRs this year, only Fitz and Harvin didn't have exceptional QBs, and Harvin gets plenty of his value from the RB position.

It's really not as simple as his QB situation. A better QB will hurt his target %. Throwing more often will hurt his target %. Having an NFL caliber WR2 will hurt his target %. The more a team throws the ball, the more they must spread it around. The more teams throw the ball, the more defenses account for it, the more attention the #1 option gets (and how long will that be Crabtree?). The biggest issue for Michael Crabtree is that he is an average WR. He could get better, but I think his ceiling is rather low - he doesn't posses elite physical tools, nor does he do any one thing at an elite level.

Michael Crabtree needs to be more productive when the ball is thrown to him, period. He isn't a great Red zone option, nor does he make big plays an above average rate. He can't have the benefit of the doubt both ways - he can't benefit from the numerous, safe, single coverage targets that he gets, and then get the assumption that his numbers improve with a better QB who throws the ball more. It's not logical.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Michael Crabtree needs to be more productive when the ball is thrown to him, period. He isn't a great Red zone option, nor does he make big plays an above average rate. He can't have the benefit of the doubt both ways - he can't benefit from the numerous, safe, single coverage targets that he gets, and then get the assumption that his numbers improve with a better QB who throws the ball more. It's not logical.

Do you think Greg Little is too high at 25? Would you agree that Crabtree's year was much better despite the fact that they were targeted about the same and had similar issues with weak QBs?I don't own Little and would sell him for most guys in tier 6.

 

[Concept Coop]

Michael Crabtree needs to be more productive when the ball is thrown to him, period. He isn't a great Red zone option, nor does he make big plays an above average rate. He can't have the benefit of the doubt both ways - he can't benefit from the numerous, safe, single coverage targets that he gets, and then get the assumption that his numbers improve with a better QB who throws the ball more. It's not logical.

Do you think Greg Little is too high at 25? Would you agree that Crabtree's year was much better despite the fact that they were targeted about the same and had similar issues with weak QBs?I don't own Little and would sell him for most guys in tier 6.

II would agree. Little's year was not good, as far as efficiency goes. And yes, I do think top 25 is too high for him. I don't see him as a future #1WR in the NFL and Crabtree is more likely to be relevant as a #2.

 

[todisco1]

The biggest issue for Michael Crabtree is that he is an average WR.

Disagree with this big time. Michael Crabtree is far above "average" IMO. Whether he lives up to his billing is still to be determined but I think he has a very good skill set.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I can understand why people would be down on Crabtree. I really can. His holdout, subsequent injuries, bad attitude, and mediocre production are cause for concern.

However, I think there is a good chance Crabtree is in the process of turning his career around. His attitude has done an about face this season, and is now considered a team first guy. http://sports.yahoo....ug=ycn-10782065

The biggest issue for Crabtree's fantasy potential right now is the QB situation in SF.

Alex Smith threw for 200 yards or less in 10 of 16 games this year. He had one game over 275 yards all year. (291) He threw for 17 TDs on the season. That doesn't leave much room for fantasy stardom amongst your pass catchers.

There is no doubt in my mind Harbaugh would love to run an uptempo professional level passing offense. The talent level of his QB does not allow that at this point however. Harbaugh may be praising Alex Smith, calling him their guy of the future, but make no mistake about it, they will try to upgrade that position asap. Whether that is Kaepernick or someone outside the organization is yet unknown.

If, and or when they do get that QB, I think Crabtree has Nicks/Boldin type potential.

Think about it this way. Of the top 12WRs this year, only Fitz and Harvin didn't have exceptional QBs, and Harvin gets plenty of his value from the RB position.

It's really not as simple as his QB situation. A better QB will hurt his target %. Throwing more often will hurt his target %. Having an NFL caliber WR2 will hurt his target %. The more a team throws the ball, the more they must spread it around. The more teams throw the ball, the more defenses account for it, the more attention the #1 option gets (and how long will that be Crabtree?). The biggest issue for Michael Crabtree is that he is an average WR. He could get better, but I think his ceiling is rather low - he doesn't posses elite physical tools, nor does he do any one thing at an elite level.

Michael Crabtree needs to be more productive when the ball is thrown to him, period. He isn't a great Red zone option, nor does he make big plays an above average rate. He can't have the benefit of the doubt both ways - he can't benefit from the numerous, safe, single coverage targets that he gets, and then get the assumption that his numbers improve with a better QB who throws the ball more. It's not logical.

So if Matt Flynn is their QB in 2012, and he throws for 720 more yards (which just brings them to the NFL midpoint) than Alex Smith did this year, Crabtree won't benefit? I could point you to plenty of threads from last season talking about how CAR Steve Smith was done. He didn't have it anymore, and some were even saying he wasn't that good to begin with. Then he gets a capable QB, and magically he's an elite WR again. He got the same number of targets this year as he did in 2009. Yet he had 400 more yards. He got 30 more targets this year than last, and got 840 more yards.

Looks what's happened to Santonio Holmes since he left Roethlisberger, and downgraded his QB to Sanchez. His last year with the Steelers yardage is only slightly less than the total from his two years with the Jets.

QBs matter, and Alex Smith is hurting the Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree.

 

[Concept Coop]

The biggest issue for Michael Crabtree is that he is an average WR.

Disagree with this big time. Michael Crabtree is far above "average" IMO. Whether he lives up to his billing is still to be determined but I think he has a very good skill set.

I don't want to sidetrack the thread anymore than I have, so I'll say this and move on:Michael Crabtree is either good enough to be a long-term WR1 in the NFL or not. If he is, he will eventually need to beat double/shifted/altered coverage regularly. I don't think Michael Crabtree can do that. If we determine he is a number 2, he would need an exceptional situation (i.e. Jordy Nelson) to be anything more than an average (or below) fantasy WR2. I am not investing anything into that hope. I am hardly an authority and could simply be missing something, but I don't see anything elite about Crabtree. His catch radius is average and he doesn't make big plays with any kind of regularity. That is not a good formula to bank on, IMO. Someone brought up the QB situation for the guys in the top 10. Their QB situation is not the common denominator - WRs have put up top 10 numbers without top 10 QBs and FBG did a study suggesting such. The most common denominator is talent. They have things that they do at elite levels, even Harvin. Crabtree doesn't belong.

 

[Concept Coop]

So if Matt Flynn is their QB in 2012, and he throws for 720 more yards (which just brings them to the NFL midpoint) than Alex Smith did this year, Crabtree won't benefit? I could point you to plenty of threads from last season talking about how CAR Steve Smith was done. He didn't have it anymore, and some were even saying he wasn't that good to begin with. Then he gets a capable QB, and magically he's an elite WR again. He got the same number of targets this year as he did in 2009. Yet he had 400 more yards. He got 30 more targets this year than last, and got 840 more yards. Looks what's happened to Santonio Holmes since he left Roethlisberger, and downgraded his QB to Sanchez. His last year with the Steelers yardage is only slightly less than the total from his two years with the Jets. QBs matter, and Alex Smith is hurting the Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree.

I said I was done, but this post deserves a retort. Steve Smith can beat double teams and is a playmaker. Santonio Holmes can beat double teams and is a playmaker. QB situations hurt guys like this, because they need a QB willing and able to put the ball where they can get it. Accuracy needs to be mentioned here, along with blanket terms like "good" and "bad". Alex Smith is an accurate QB capable of getting the ball to the places Crabtree can get open. But, QB play does matter - look at Larry's season compared to last. It improved as his QB play improved. The difference bewteen Larry and Michael is this: Larry dealt with double/shifted/altered coverage with Max Hall at QB. Michael Crabtree has not been with Alex at QB.

 

[thriftyrocker]

His catch radius is average and he doesn't make big plays with any kind of regularity.

I disagree with that assessment. His wingspan was the highest in his draft class which included Kenny Britt and DHB. Bigger than Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson too. Like Blackmon, he has the catch radius of a guy 3" taller and can play bigger than he actually is. If you want to provide highlights that show him missing balls in the air after you get to a terminal, I'd love to see them (check a few posts earlier for him grabbing some), but otherwise I don't think catch radius is a reason to doubt Crabtree's upside.

 

[Concept Coop]

His catch radius is average and he doesn't make big plays with any kind of regularity.

I disagree with that assessment. His wingspan was the highest in his draft class which included Kenny Britt and DHB. Bigger than Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson too. Like Blackmon, he has the catch radius of a guy 3" taller and can play bigger than he actually is. If you want to provide highlights that show him missing balls in the air after you get to a terminal, I'd love to see them (check a few posts earlier for him grabbing some), but otherwise I don't think catch radius is a reason to doubt Crabtree's upside.

If you are suggesting that his catch radius is even close to Jackson's or Johnson's, we are using a very different definition of the term. He doesn't play bigger than he is, at all. If you have video of him making catches that those you listed wouldn't be able to, I'd love to see them.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If you are suggesting that his catch radius is even close to Jackson's or Johnson's, we are using a very different definition of the term. He doesn't play bigger than he is, at all. If you have video of him making catches that those you listed wouldn't be able to, I'd love to see them.

Only comparing Crabtree to Calvin in measured wingspan. There's an ESPN Sport Science clip on Blackmon that talks about how his catch radius is the same as Plax's due to wingspan and vert, and those numbers are slightly less than Crabtree's. It's partly BSPN fluff, but the point remains that Crabtree's wingspan means a lot and makes his catch radius a + not a - as far as his future upside.Of course Calvin Johnson's vert is obscene given his size and makes him incomparable.

 

[Concept Coop]

If you are suggesting that his catch radius is even close to Jackson's or Johnson's, we are using a very different definition of the term. He doesn't play bigger than he is, at all. If you have video of him making catches that those you listed wouldn't be able to, I'd love to see them.

Only comparing Crabtree to Calvin in measured wingspan. There's an ESPN Sport Science clip on Blackmon that talks about how his catch radius is the same as Plax's due to wingspan and vert, and those numbers are slightly less than Crabtree's. It's partly BSPN fluff, but the point remains that Crabtree's wingspan means a lot and makes his catch radius a + not a - as far as his future upside.Of course Calvin Johnson's vert is obscene given his size and makes him incomparable.

Perhaps I am using the wrong word, then.Desean Jackson has a solid catch radius because you can throw him open deep - he has an extra gear, so he can adjust as needed, when slower players can't. Steve Smith has a bigger catch radius because you can throw him open deep, and because he is strong enough, and willing to fight for the ball in the air/in traffic. Larry Fitzgerald has a ridiculous catch radius because he can catch the ball almost anywhere he can get his hands, because he is big, strong, has great body control, he can jump, et cetera, et cetera. When I say catch radius, it has very little to do with size, length. I don't feel Crabtree has an above average catch radius, based on the used definition of the word.