I just took him with the 15th pick in a PPR rookie draft. In my first pass at my post-draft rankings I think he should be slotted somewhere in the 11-20 range. Here's the thing about prospects who land in unfavorable situations: on the one hand their value dips because their short term opportunity is cloudy, but on the other hand they often become bargain buys because their poor situation means you can buy them below the cost of their talent level. If you want to be optimistic about Dwyer's future, I think you have to look at Michael Turner as a parallel. Turner was a massively productive college back who slipped because of poor workout numbers and concerns about his college situation (he didn't play in a gimmicky offense like Dwyer, but he played in a small conference that diminished his statistical achievements). He fell to the 154th pick in the draft and landed in a terrible situation behind LaDainian Tomlinson, a young superstar in the prime of his career. He eventually found a new team, had a monster debut season as a starter, and achieved top 5 dynasty RB value. I don't know if Dwyer can replicate that feat, but I'm having a hard time reconciling his apparent talent with his bottom of the barrel draft position. I think he's a classic boom or bust pick in rookie drafts. Considering that the options in the 10+ range are pretty uninspiring, why not roll the dice on Dwyer and hope that he becomes the franchise back he was almost unanimously touted as 4-5 months ago? Sure, he will most likely fail, but there's undeniable upside in the 10-20 range of rookie drafts and it's not like the guys you might take over him are good bets to succeed.