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Dynasty: Kalen Ballage, RB Arizona State (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Liquid Courage
- Start date
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Response relevant to all quoted:
He was active for the first time this year and saw his first carry last Sunday. Kenyan Drake disappointing and just a veteran Frank Gore to beat for carries.
Dude is as good of a runner as any other back in this class! Just needs a chance but he's got 3-down potential.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
A) Drake is disappointing because he’s not getting the ball, not poor play
B) No way is Ballage anywhere close to the best runner in this class. He couldn’t even get the lead back role at ASU.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Not at all. I’m of course open to being wrong but his college usage is a major red flag. Now Kamara showed that sometimes college coaches can be outright stupid in player usage but I think that’s a rare exception.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why wasn't Alvin Kamara featured? Why was he the 30% share of a 70-30 committee behind a guy that was such a bad RB he ended up leaving the team and switching positions to WR?
There is a long list of guys that became great pros despite not being productive or even winning position battles in college. I get what you're saying but I'd be more concerned with his college struggles if we were talking about a top guy that was expensive to acquire. At Ballage's price his college production is already built in to his price and as far as flyers go, it is far from the worst problem that kind of player can have.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yep and look how it's turned out at the pros. Kenyan has much better excuses though. He was hurt and was playing with highly drafted NFL RBs.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think Kamara is much more the exception than the rule. I think it's pretty rare for a college RB to get under utilized and the turn out to be a big hit in the NFL. What other examples are there? But you are right, his cost makes adding him a pretty risk free proposition. The only loss is the opportunity cost of not bing able to roster someone else.
jm192
Footballguy
Matthew Berry cited a stat earlier this week that Drake is losing yards on 24% of his carries and the league average is ~10%. I don't know that I agree Drake's play isn't at least part of the issue.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am going to assume most of those carries were from the last 2 games where he has a total of 8 carries for 6 yards. Not good, but also I'd like to see those runs and determine if we can really pin that on Drake.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fast Willie Parker is the guy who comes to mind immediately who was used way less than even Ballage. Jerick McKinnon among the modern guys.
It's not like we're talking about Fast Willie or even Kamara levels of usage here for Ballage. He had 150 carries his senior year which is right in line or close to a handful of successful NFL backs like Mixon, MJD, Devonta Freeman. And that's just for long term success. There are a bevy of guys with similar college usage who had at least a short run in the NFL like Spencer Ware, CJ Anderson, etc.
You're right that it's definitely more the exception than the rule, but like I said that would be a larger concern if he were coming at the cost of a top prospect. Anyone that's essentially a dart throw is going to have a major wart and his is less offensive than many others, and has been overcome by other guys.
Elevencents
Footballguy
Really liked the prospects of this kid. Will be interesting to see what they do in the offseason. They better get rid of Drake and give him a chance somewhere because he is wasted talent there.
trader jake
Footballguy
Assuming Gase is retained, why wouldn't the Dolphins go with Ballage & Drake at RB next season? Seems logical and offers more dollars, draft picks, etc to be utilized to upgrade more pressing positions of need.
Elevencents
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
Mobile pass-catching backs can give Jacksonville issues + road Jacksonville plays extremely up-and-down. Dude is a legit RB2 for the big Fantasy game.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Before people get too excited you should know that his 75 yard TD happened because Zimmer called a blitz on the play.
Zimmer takes responsibility for the long run due to his play call.
Zimmer takes responsibility for the long run due to his play call.
I’m not sure I see the relevance of that as a criticism. PFF is crediting him with 95 yds after contact, that was the 5th fast run of the year per NFL advanced stats and also reading he had 5.75 yds created for the game. His athleticism is not some flukey measure. Will he get the volume to replicate or take advantage of a situation like that again is what does. Given Gase + Jacksonville, I think that is a far more relevant concern than whether the DC calls the wrong play. They always stand the chance to read the offense wrong IMO.
https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article223249595.html
Now obviously this quote begs the question, "Why didn't Ballage get more run earlier then?!" Nothing in Miami makes sense, but something inside me is saying don't overthink this one. The "starter" Frank Gore went down and Ballage took his role. Drake's touches remained limited, and Ballage showed his speed and explosiveness with a long TD. The coach then indicated that he was not surprised by his performance because he has a tendency to "finish in the end zone." That sounds like the kind of player who will get plenty of chances to show what he can do down the stretch...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yes you do not get my point. That does make my point irrelevant.Iceman03 said:
It was a broken play. All the numbers you cite are derived from a broken play.
It is not something that is sustainable.
Sure he was fast enough to take advantage of the bad call. That is a good thing. However the metrics you cite are derived mostly by a broken play, and you have the nerve to say that me pointing that out is irrelevant?
Small sample sizes of performance with a large chunk of that performance coming off a broken play is less relevant than my point is.
Wait do other teams not blitz as well. We better redo a lot of stats then cause sometimes teams blitz on a screen play letting that rb have a big play. Oh man there’s also those times when players fall down or figure a safety is helping them when there not and that’s also a big play.
Its part of the game. I don’t think anyone is saying ballage is all of a sudden a stud. Most people had him as a sleeper because he has a lot of potential but is a little raw as a runner and that potential was just shown even if it was a “broken” play
It was hardly that much of a broken play and is a scenario that happens enough in the NFL that it shouldn’t just be dismissed or subdued. This isn’t Chris Hogan running free down the sideline because Artie Burns doesn’t know what he’s doing. He ran through an arm tackle, blew by whatever was left of the LB core and then outran two DB’s at a freight train speed.
Now, I don’t think he looked like the sharpest RB I’ve ever seen play, he certainly seems to not have a great instinct. If he is going to get 15-18 touches though, the chance of having a breakaway run again are not low, IMO. People’s expectations for him have already been kept in check with his poor collegiate production, low draft position and being banished to the bench this year. Seeing the athleticism displayed (4.3 ypc outside of that run mind you) should probably bring his value and upside into a much clearer and more accurate value for him. I don’t see the value of dismissing that play just because of the call, it proves that his athleticism is not just gym rat or taking advantage of D2 kids. He ran pretty damn well versus a really good NFL D even without the run. It’s pretty difficult to say what any other back would do on that play. Some wouldn’t break the arm tackle, some wouldn’t outrun the DB’s, some would do the exact same thing (very few would reach the same speed). I don’t mind pointing it out that Zimmer messed up and there is a flukish nature to that, I don’t see the need to have a dismissive nature over it though.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is a weird hill to die on. He was sitting at 6 carries for 30 yards before that rush so he was already looking pretty good for a raw prospect that wasn't supposed to play much this year but was thrust into the fire.
Regardless, an inopportune blitz hardly seems like a "broken play". They happen all the time. It wasn't like he got the ball and ran straight for 80 yards like we see of so many long TDs. He made a nice quick cut, showed great burst, and ran through a tackle. Let's not pretend that Frank Gore would have gotten more than 8 yards on that same "broken play".
Obviously there is a long way to go for him becoming anything valuable, but it was a nice start for a guy for whom this year was supposed to be a mulligan.
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BigJim®
Footballguy
I like Bia's takes almost always, but I don't see the need to calm enthusiasm for a guy who has generated 8 posts after being invisible for 2 months.
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Sweatpants
Footballguy
Calm down!
MIN not great against the run. Ballage is not known for his vision and instincts, hips are a bit stiff and footwork isn't great. Something to keep in mind. He is a physical specimen though.
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dcgangstas
Footballguy
I'm strongly considering him as my flex versus Gus Edwards and Damien Williams.
Ballage should get plenty of work, given that Jacksonville isn't going to put up a lot of offense and the Jags seem to be in give-up mode. Gus revved up the Gus Bus last week, though he's subject to negative-game script. That could be a problem with the Ravens facing a high-octane offense like the Chargers. If I knew that Spencer Ware wasn't playing (he's practicing on limited basis, so he'll play) Williams would definitely get the start.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Here is a all 22 look at the play we are talking about.
Presnap we see that the Dolphins are using one TE and 2 other receivers to the right of the formation. The Vikings line up with their line shifted away from the strong side and the LB stack on this side with only one of them playing the middle. Presnap one receiver comes across to the left before the play. No defender follows him. After the snap the LBers blitz on the left side of the formation and the play.
The run is to the strong side and Ballage finds the gap and beats the corner in the hole. The safety got caught up in the blocking.
There was no one else there to stop the play because of the blitz. So he didn't blow by any LBers at all, as they were blitzing on the other side of the formation.
I don't see any broken tackles on the play unless you mean the defensive lineman? I don't think he got a hand on him. The defensive back just never makes a tackle attempt on him and he blows right by. The other defensive back was blocked.
Sorry if I took your tone the wrong way. It is a pet peeve of mine when people tell me that what I spent time thinking about and time sharing is irrelevant.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You can see from the reverse angle that starts at the 22 second mark in this video that his initial cuts (a jump cut to the right and then immediate explosion upfield) were much more impressive than they appear from the all 22. We know about his athleticism but these kind of intracicies were supposed to be his weak point and he did great at them on this play and wouldn't have had all that space without them.
Also regarding that athleticism you can see from two different instances in the all-play both here and here that it did not look like a play that was set to go for 75 yards. Those are the kinds of plays that a solid plug and play RB picks up 8-12 yards but a special athlete turns into a 75 yard TD. Hence my comment about Gore picking up 8 yards on that play and everyone forgetting about it if he were in there.
You're right that he didn't break a tackle. You can see from the reverse angle that the D-lineman does get a hand on him but it's a desperation attempt and barely a swat. Nonetheless, I would be more skeptical if it were JUST the speed to toast those secondary players that would have had a weaker athlete that got him the long TD, but the really nice jump cut and burst to start the play was very crucial to setting that up and was impressive imho.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree it was good that he saw the hole and hit it with some decent footwork to change direction after pressing it to the outside at first. The speed is great as well as noted in Faust posts.
Maybe this is irrelevant as well, but at the time the Vikings defense wasn't playing very well as the whole team seemed to go into a lull after the pick six on Cousins, the long drive at the end of the half by the Dolphins they didn't seem to be playing very well. Things changed after this play by Ballage, as far as Miami ability to move the ball. A wake up call for the defense or momentum shift or whatever you want to call it. The defense seemed to react and play with more intensity after this play. IIRC the Vikings offense stalled after the TD. It wasn't until the defense got a stop that the Vikings offense got going again.
FWIW I had Ballage ranked as a tier 3 RB prospect right after Ito Smith. I can see how he might be a RB 2 for the next couple of games though.
I don't have confidence in Gase keeping his job and the way he has used RB with Miami so far isn't something I want to be hitched to either.
I agree with what you are saying though, that on the run he shows some traits that Ballage has been criticized for lacking or needing improvement. So that is a great sign.
I find myself really surprised sometimes how effective some players end up becoming at the NFL level. That is usually when those players are paired with a very good situation. I don't think the Dolpins are that right now. As far as long term speculation about Ballage being a 200 touch player for the Dolphins next season, maybe he will.
I certainly didn’t mean any insult with the word “relevance”, would signifcance sound better? I don’t know. Whatever the case, I just meant from my perspective the blitz call isn’t a nullifying factor for me. I do, however, have other criticisms of both his play and the situation. He is a hell of a straight line athlete, no doubt, but he did look stiff in how agile he is and raw in his manner to just hit the line as fast as he could (reminiscent in ways to Christine Micheal) without any vision but moreso lucking into designed holes. I like him, hard not to like 21 mph speed at 237 lbs, but whether he can learn the nuance is going to be the story. The athleticism and having a history as a good pass catcher is very helpful to what his ceiling could be though.
The thoughts are Gase are 100% correct though. Who knows if he’ll e coaching there next year, it’s a derelict situation for the next two weeks and it will be unpredictable what the next staff wants and whether Ballage will be in the plans or if they draft someone/revert back to Drake or a true split.
The thoughts are Gase are 100% correct though. Who knows if he’ll e coaching there next year, it’s a derelict situation for the next two weeks and it will be unpredictable what the next staff wants and whether Ballage will be in the plans or if they draft someone/revert back to Drake or a true split.
Anyone else intrigued by the reports that Gore really took this kid under his wing all season?
I read an article on The Athletic that Gore invited Ballage to join him in his pre-game warmup rituals which begin more than 2 hours before kickoff.
I've read a bunch of quotes from Ballage that show a tremendous amount of respect and appreciation for the way Gore mentored him.
Doesn't necessarily mean he will be successful on the field but if there's a RB to learn from, Frank Gore has to be one of the very best.
I read an article on The Athletic that Gore invited Ballage to join him in his pre-game warmup rituals which begin more than 2 hours before kickoff.
I've read a bunch of quotes from Ballage that show a tremendous amount of respect and appreciation for the way Gore mentored him.
Doesn't necessarily mean he will be successful on the field but if there's a RB to learn from, Frank Gore has to be one of the very best.
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