Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Possible. I see him more 16-21 range
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Travdogg's final mock draft (updated post 73 as of draft day morning) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter travdogg
- Start date
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
If I was a Philly fan, that's the guy I would want. It's fairly rare to have that good of a QB/RB combination on one team.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
At this point, I don't care who they take. I personally want Jalen Carter but if they went Bijan Robinson I wouldn't be upset.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’d make that offense pretty unstoppable.
From a FF perspective I do agree with those who feel it’s less than ideal. Any team with a running QB is going to throw to the RB less (instead of a check-down, it’s often a QB run). And also presumably RZ GL carries by the QB will hinder the RB’s productivity a bit.
I’m sure Bijan will be fine anywhere he plays, but I’d prefer the Bengals or Chargers to the Eagles.
I mean, I personally wouldn't take him until the 20's, but I don't see it happening.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Probably true but my gut is the Packers will go with one of the OLs (Johnson or Jones) over a TE if the draft goes the way you predict for 1-14.
Just wanted to add some personal opinions about some guys I really like:
I think Anthony Richardson should be the #2 overall pick, regardless of who has that pick. The ceiling is just too great. Frankly, even if he doesn't improve at all as a passer, which is the least likely scenario, the rushing threat alone is enough to make a credible offense.
Somebody is going to get a nice steal on day 3 with Chase Brown (RB Illinois, 5-10 209 4.43) he's got some issues that will perhaps rightfully keep him out of rounds 2-3, not a great receiver, fumbles. But he's got good power (only Bijan broke more tackles last season) and breakaway speed.
I also really like his brother Sydney Brown who I think could be the best Safety in this draft class, and should be a top-40 pick in my eyes. He's not a good tackler, but that's his only real weakness I see.
Andrei Iosivas is a day 3 WR I'd keep my eye on. (6-3 205 4.43) he's one of the few WRs with size and speed, and while he wasn't super productive as Princeton, he did tear up the Senior Bowl, which is always nice to see from small schoolers.
Speaking of size/speed WRs, Jonathan Mingo (6-2 220 4.46) is a guy who is interesting to me. He's kind of a poor man's Deebo, where getting the ball to him is the hard part, once he's got it, he's dangerous. He could sneak into day 2.
Zack Kuntz (6-7 255 4.55) is a freak of nature, and feels like he isn't getting enough hype in what's an incredible TE class. Could be a day 3 steal, as most of his problems have been injuries, and was stuck behind Freiermuth at Penn State.
Speaking of freaks of nature, Darnell Washington is a little bit like the TE version of Richardson, where he may never become a truly great pass catcher, but he's worthy of a top-40 pick just from his blocking, if he does become a great receiver, he's got elite upside. He's a guy I'd love to see a team take where they don't need production right away, whether they have good WR depth (Bengals?) or he can be a heavily used #2 TE (Philly?)
I'd be very curious where Luke Musgrave would be ranked if he hadn't hurt his knee this season. He got off to a crazy start with 169 in a little under 2 games when he got hurt, with an amazing 3.38 YPRR, which was more than any WR let alone TE. He's probably the best TE in the class, if you want a downfield threat.
Zacch Pickens (6-4 291 4.89) is a sneaky round 3 target for teams that want an explosive DT, but don't want to spend a high pick. Pickens was very inconsistent, but is toolsy, and probably just needs quality coaching. You'd like to see him land with a team where he can be a 3rd or 4th rotational guy to start with, but I like his upside a ton.
Not an off the radar guy be any means, but I think Lukas Van Ness has the highest ceiling of any defensive player in this draft. I have no idea why he didn't play more at Iowa, and I can understand that giving pause, but I don't see a single hole in his game.
Speaking of Iowa, I think Jack Campbell should be a 1st round pick. I know the 4.65 40 time is gonna likely prevent that from happening, but that's the only hole in his game, and its somewhat offset by his 6.74 3-cone, which is arguably more important for a position that changes direction as much as LB.
Another guy who I think falls to far due to 40 time is Julius Brents (6-3 198 4.53) the Kansas State CB. Ideal fit for a press scheme, but not limited to one either. I think he should go round 2, and maybe even top-40, but that 40 time likely stings as under 4.5 seems to be a bit of a cutoff with CBs.
Another big CB I like is Cody Trice (6-3 206 4,47) out of Purdue. I do wonder if he might do best to move to safety as his biggest strength is his sure tackling, but he's not a liability in coverage by any means. Trice basically ends routes at the line of scrimmage, allowing only 1 catch in 88 press snaps in 2022. He does get a little lost on double moves, but he's a guy I'd take in round 2, and he's rarely mocked in the first 3 rounds.
Lastly, Blake Freeland (6-8 302 4.98) is the latest BYU OL to come out, and he may be the most talented one. He needs to add weight to that frame, as 302 is just too small at 6-8 for an OT, but if he can, he's excellent at getting to the next level and sealing off edges. He's a great round 3 target for any team that runs outside zones, so any of the Shanahan coaching tree.
I think Anthony Richardson should be the #2 overall pick, regardless of who has that pick. The ceiling is just too great. Frankly, even if he doesn't improve at all as a passer, which is the least likely scenario, the rushing threat alone is enough to make a credible offense.
Somebody is going to get a nice steal on day 3 with Chase Brown (RB Illinois, 5-10 209 4.43) he's got some issues that will perhaps rightfully keep him out of rounds 2-3, not a great receiver, fumbles. But he's got good power (only Bijan broke more tackles last season) and breakaway speed.
I also really like his brother Sydney Brown who I think could be the best Safety in this draft class, and should be a top-40 pick in my eyes. He's not a good tackler, but that's his only real weakness I see.
Andrei Iosivas is a day 3 WR I'd keep my eye on. (6-3 205 4.43) he's one of the few WRs with size and speed, and while he wasn't super productive as Princeton, he did tear up the Senior Bowl, which is always nice to see from small schoolers.
Speaking of size/speed WRs, Jonathan Mingo (6-2 220 4.46) is a guy who is interesting to me. He's kind of a poor man's Deebo, where getting the ball to him is the hard part, once he's got it, he's dangerous. He could sneak into day 2.
Zack Kuntz (6-7 255 4.55) is a freak of nature, and feels like he isn't getting enough hype in what's an incredible TE class. Could be a day 3 steal, as most of his problems have been injuries, and was stuck behind Freiermuth at Penn State.
Speaking of freaks of nature, Darnell Washington is a little bit like the TE version of Richardson, where he may never become a truly great pass catcher, but he's worthy of a top-40 pick just from his blocking, if he does become a great receiver, he's got elite upside. He's a guy I'd love to see a team take where they don't need production right away, whether they have good WR depth (Bengals?) or he can be a heavily used #2 TE (Philly?)
I'd be very curious where Luke Musgrave would be ranked if he hadn't hurt his knee this season. He got off to a crazy start with 169 in a little under 2 games when he got hurt, with an amazing 3.38 YPRR, which was more than any WR let alone TE. He's probably the best TE in the class, if you want a downfield threat.
Zacch Pickens (6-4 291 4.89) is a sneaky round 3 target for teams that want an explosive DT, but don't want to spend a high pick. Pickens was very inconsistent, but is toolsy, and probably just needs quality coaching. You'd like to see him land with a team where he can be a 3rd or 4th rotational guy to start with, but I like his upside a ton.
Not an off the radar guy be any means, but I think Lukas Van Ness has the highest ceiling of any defensive player in this draft. I have no idea why he didn't play more at Iowa, and I can understand that giving pause, but I don't see a single hole in his game.
Speaking of Iowa, I think Jack Campbell should be a 1st round pick. I know the 4.65 40 time is gonna likely prevent that from happening, but that's the only hole in his game, and its somewhat offset by his 6.74 3-cone, which is arguably more important for a position that changes direction as much as LB.
Another guy who I think falls to far due to 40 time is Julius Brents (6-3 198 4.53) the Kansas State CB. Ideal fit for a press scheme, but not limited to one either. I think he should go round 2, and maybe even top-40, but that 40 time likely stings as under 4.5 seems to be a bit of a cutoff with CBs.
Another big CB I like is Cody Trice (6-3 206 4,47) out of Purdue. I do wonder if he might do best to move to safety as his biggest strength is his sure tackling, but he's not a liability in coverage by any means. Trice basically ends routes at the line of scrimmage, allowing only 1 catch in 88 press snaps in 2022. He does get a little lost on double moves, but he's a guy I'd take in round 2, and he's rarely mocked in the first 3 rounds.
Lastly, Blake Freeland (6-8 302 4.98) is the latest BYU OL to come out, and he may be the most talented one. He needs to add weight to that frame, as 302 is just too small at 6-8 for an OT, but if he can, he's excellent at getting to the next level and sealing off edges. He's a great round 3 target for any team that runs outside zones, so any of the Shanahan coaching tree.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Bijuan probably will end up being a top 3 player from this class over his career. But still don’t see him going top 5. Bears make a lot of sense if Sko is gone, maybe even if he isn’t. Philly would be scary.
But the rb market is just not good. When even Barkley is probably playing for $10M, it’s really hard to see any back even one who does everything going higher than 16.
In honor of my friends who work in higher ed. I feel it’s time for a full refresher on the "Runningbacks Don't Matter 101" course as teams ready for their next big exam next week. The data is overwhelming.
https://twitter.com/JoeyIckes/status/1649459088428859413
The studies on the running game go back to as early as 2011 when Brian Burke clarified just how inefficient running the ball was compared to passing.
https://slate.com/culture/2011/11/nfl-offense-running-for-three-yards-is-like-going-backwards.html
Then in 2014 Dr. Ed Feng looked at 10 years of data that showed that rushing efficiency contributed to only ~4.4% of the variance in wins, vs the passing game contributing ~62%
https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/
Around 2017-2018 the data really cranked up on RBs themselves.
Josh Hermsmeyer looked at 10 years of rushing data, and found that two factors accounted for 96%(!) of rushing gains... Those two factors?
Field position, and # of defenders in the box...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...king-success-isnt-the-linemen-its-sean-mcvay/
Then Eric and George from PFF added to that study, finding that in addition to Josh's two factors, the actual run concept on a play moves the needle in rushing EPA more than the quality (determined by PFF grade) of the actual ball carrier.
https://www.pff.com/news/pro-are-nf...-replaceable-the-story-of-the-2018-nfl-season
Add that to the study by Ben Baldwin showing that RBs drafted in the top-20 are no better than the league average on a yards per carry basis. There’s also a nugget in here about RBs having the highest 1st rd bust rate of all offensive positions
Don’t do it. Like, ever.
https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/2/2...uon-barkley-leonard-fournette-ezekiel-elliott
Since we know with these studies (and others) that running backs have very little influence on the success of a running game, and that running game success has little impact on winning games, the argument moves to the passing game.
Does a RB matter if he can be a pass catcher?
Well, in this study, Eric Eager (again) shows that passes thrown to RBs are the less efficient, less valuable, and less stable year over year, than targets to any other position.
https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-forecast-examines-value-of-coverage-and-receiving
- Ben Baldwin confirmed that study in this one, where his data showed that targets to RBs have about 1/4 of the EPA per play of targets to TE, and even less vs targets to WR, and a lower success rate (positive EPA) than targets to TE or WRs.
- The best catchers of the football are the players who play positions primarily geared toward, well, catching the football.
The next question would be, what if a RB can line up as a wide receiver or in the slot on some plays. Does that change the equation?
Back to Eric and George at PFF... RBs lined up in the slot were far less efficient than WRs and TEs lined up in the slot.
What's the true value of a slot weapon in today's NFL market
PFF Data Scientists Dr. Eric Eager & George Chahrouri take a deeper look at how valuable a weapon from the slot is for NFL offenses, and how pivotal a slot receiver is to offensive success.
https://www.pff.com/news/pro-examining-the-value-of-offensive-slot-weapons
So if the running game itself doesn't help you win, the RB doesn't impact the running game, and regularly throwing to a RB is a losing proposition, maybe there are secondary benefits?
Maybe having a good RB & a good running game helps the play action game?
Well our friend Ben found that "teams don't need to run often -- or run well -- to set up play-action. Play-action works for teams that run frequently, infrequently, well, or poorly"
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing
Ok so then maybe a good running back and a good running game keeps the defense rested?
Well FBO did the work & found that "the main - and perhaps only - channel through which an offense can help a defense on a per-drive basis is through field position."
Defense and Rest Time
Do defenses really wear out over the course of a game? Do defenses benefit from long drives that give them more time to rest on the sideline? Guest columnist Ben Baldwin investigates.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/defense-and-rest-time
So in review of our review... Running backs don't help the running game, they're inherently inefficient in the passing game compared to WR's and TEs. They don't improve play action effectiveness, and they don't help your defense...
Additionally, drafting RBs high is not "safer" than other positions, and does not correlate to better production from the RB position.
You just can't legitimately justify the idea of spending premium (picks or $$) on the running back position, with any quantifiable measures.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Someone should send the above post to Jerry Jones before he trades up into the top ten to get Bijan.
rockaction
Footballguy
i read that feed on my Twitter feed. Pretty damning stuff about RBs and worth. It's crazy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Maybe he’s just thinking of us FF managers, did you ever stop to consider the altruism angle? No, of course you didn’t.
Never change, Jerruh.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Jerruh = The Anti-BelichickMaybe he’s just thinking of us FF managers, did you ever stop to consider the altruism angle? No, of course you didn’t.
Never change, Jerruh.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Good stuff, and the receiving stats are an often used argument. One that I’d make myself with Bijuan, ekeler, kamara, Barkley, and a few others. I do think there’s a significant value when your RB is actually a really good receiver but perhaps not as much as I thought.
I still think backs are underpaid but thanks for showing a good case for why they might be appropriately valued relative to team success.
Even Derrick Henry wasn’t as valuable to the Titans as AJ brown - which was discussed in this forum at some length during 2021.
To be fair, Barkley has been good in 1 of the last 3 seasons. Like, he's a very talented RB, but has more red flags than most at the position. Truthfully, I think he was (at best) the #3 RB who was a FA this offseason, behind the grossly underrated Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs.
Side note: I've been driving the Tony Pollard bandwagon for pretty much his entire career now, and it still blows my mind how underrated he is. He's the 3rd best RB in the NFL in my opinion. Chubb, CMC, then Pollard. Its not his fault his team was too stubborn to notice, it wasn't unlike the Chargers continuing to insist on Gordon over Ekeler as late as 2019, even though like Pollard he offered more than the 1st round pick ahead of him, by the beginning of year 2 at the latest. I think we are kinda seeing something similar happen in Pittsburgh, where Jaylen Warren is probably better than Najee Harris, but let's see how long it takes them to admit that.
Which isn't an argument against all 1st round RBs (I think the world of CMC and think he's a major exception to that excellent post by @Obie Wan ) while it is against Najee, who went about 40 picks higher than I thought he should have) but an argument against blindly valuing someone in the face of evidence pointing toward something else. I'm indifferent about Gordon, but Zeke was the best RB prospect of the last decade in my opinion, and he's been pretty much JAG for years now. Its zero surprise his market is what it is.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Fair points on Barkley but we really disagree on the best RBs. Pollard is underrated but he’s still behind those two, Henry, Barkley, and Jacobs. Probably on par with cook, Walker (we’ll see more next year), Etienne and probably others.
But we’re going on a tangent hike here.
I'll drop it after, but I think the top-10 NFL RBs are:
1. Chubb
2. CMC
3. Pollard
4. Henry
5. Bijan
6. Stevenson
7. Jacobs
8. A.Jones
9. Dillon
10. Ekeler
With an honorable mention for Dobbins if he could stay on the field.
I don't think I'd have Cook or even Etienne in the top-20.
Somewhat back on topic, it wouldn't take much of a performance at or above expectations, for me to put Bijan #3, and while I don't think Arizona should take him at #3, I wouldn't have a major problem with Atlanta or especially Chicago making that pick. If Philly does (or trades for Henry) then yikes for the NFL. I'm mostly on board with the idea of RBs shouldn't go in round 1, but I think Bijan is special, in a way that none of Najee, Etienne, CEH (still helaireous he was a 1st), or even Jacobs were.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Part of the fun is disagreeing.
Etienne is severely underrated imo. And I don’t see Stevenson near that high.
Ok, one last shot at it, with a little more info, and the Rodgers deal.
1. Carolina=Bryce Young QB Alabama, no brainer in my opinion.
2. Houston=CJ Stroud QB Ohio State, I think the Texans want to move down, and that's why so many guys have been floated as the #2 pick, but ultimately, I'm not projecting trades, so assume nobody wants to move up to meet Houston's price, I think Stroud is the pick. They need a QB who can start now, and I'm not putting much weight in the S2 scores.
3. Arizona=Will Anderson DE Alabama, I think if Anderson is gone, the Cards are furiously trying to trade down, but I think he's their guy.
4. Indianapolis=Anthony Richardson QB Florida, I'm not buying the Levis talk at all, feels somewhat like the Mac Jones is going 3rd to SF talk from a couple years ago to me. I don't see Ballard being able to turn down Richardson's traits, and Irsay will love the attention it brings.
5. Seattle=Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech, I think his size fits an older school HC like Carroll, and I think at the end of the day, its between him and Carter, and Carter's red flags are bigger.
6. Detroit=Devin Witherspoon CB Illinois, perfect fit for the defense, and the Okudah trade makes this more of a need.
7. Las Vegas-Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon, Al Davis would live this pick, as Gonzalez has Raider measurables. Being that their #1 CB is Nate Hobbs, you could say its a need.
8. Atlanta=Bijan Robinson RB Texas, I still honestly think he could go higher, but this feels like a great fit. Best RB prospect in at least 5 years goes to the 2nd most run heavy team in the NFL.
9. Chicago=Jalen Carter DT Georgia, I think his mini fall ends here. Ironcically before the trade down, and the off-field stuff, Carter was often mocked to the Bears at #1.
10. Philadelphia=Nolan Smith DE Georgia, feels like he's steadily moving up, and the Eagles know how to use a player like this in their heavy DL rotation.
11. Tennessee=Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio State, still not feeling Levis here. JSN gives them a true #1, allowing Burks to shine more as a #2.
12. Houston=Lukas Van Ness DE Iowa, freakish talent that needs some refinement, Ryans gets his defensive centerpiece and his QB.
13. Green Bay=Paris Johnson OT Ohio State, not a pick I've seen in mocks, as he's often gone by now, but I think OTs fall a bit due to perceived depth.
14. New England=Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern, this falls perfectly for NE, as they can get a major OL upgrade, without passing on a top CB or EDGE.
15. NY Jets=Broderick Jones OT Georgia, keeping Aaron Rodgers upright is the most important goal the Jets have. Jones is a bit raw in my eyes, but he's an upgrade from what they have.
16. Washington=Joey Porter CB Penn State, maybe Dantzler bounces back in an actual NFL defense, but Porter gives them a guy with size and speed in the secondary.
17. Pittsburgh=Darnell Wright OT Tennessee, feels like a Steelers pick. Big time run blocker, who is a small question mark in the passing game due to gimmicky offense. Not saying he can't do it, just that the evidence is a bit skewed.
18. Detroit=Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh, anywhere from #10 to here feels like Kancey's range, so this is good fortune for the Lions.
19. Tampa Bay=Jordan Addison WR USC, on the surface this probably looks like a weird pick. WR is probably the strongest position on TB, that said, I don't think Mike Evans is necessarily long for the team, and Addison seems like he's liked a lot more by the NFL than by the media. Could see TB being proactive here.
20. Seattle=Will Levis QB Kentucky, the "slide" finally ends, in a spot where Levis can be built up and brought along slowly.
21. LA Chargers=Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame, the Chargers have been telling everyone that getting receiving help is priority #1, and Mayer offers Hockenson like ability with better blocking.
22. Baltimore=Deonte Banks CB Maryland, pretty much a perfect marriage of need/talent.
23, Minnesota=Zay Flowers WR Boston College, I don't think for a second KJ Osborn is a #2 WR. Flowers also adds some speed to clear out for JJ/Hock.
24. Jacksonville=Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State, another guy flying up boards, Jags have very few real holes for a mediocre team.
25. NY Giants=Brian Branch S Alabama, a great fit for Martindale's defense as a versatile DB you can ask to do most anything.
26. Dallas=Dalton Kincaid TE Utah, upgrading Daltons at TE. Kincaid has an Andrews level ceiling.
27. Buffalo=Quentin Johnston WR TCU, Bills have been pretty open about WR need, and Johnston offers something their other WRs don't, top notch RAC abilities.
28. Cincinnati=Bryan Bresee DT Clemson, a bit of a luxury pick, as the Bengals are pretty good at DT, nonetheless, a 3rd option is useful, and Bresee has a high ceiling, though he never really improved in college.
29. New Orleans=Myles Murphy DE Clemson, dream scenario for the Saints, Murphy was considered a top-5 prospect 3 months ago.
30. Philadelphia=Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama, offers so much in the receiving/big play department, I think he's too hard to pass up here. Penny/Hurts can handle the short yardage stuff.
31. Kansas City=Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma, Chiefs lost both starting Tackles from last season, and for some reason think Jawaan Taylor is good. Harrison would allow KC to at least keep Taylor at RT, where he'll be less exposed.
1. Carolina=Bryce Young QB Alabama, no brainer in my opinion.
2. Houston=CJ Stroud QB Ohio State, I think the Texans want to move down, and that's why so many guys have been floated as the #2 pick, but ultimately, I'm not projecting trades, so assume nobody wants to move up to meet Houston's price, I think Stroud is the pick. They need a QB who can start now, and I'm not putting much weight in the S2 scores.
3. Arizona=Will Anderson DE Alabama, I think if Anderson is gone, the Cards are furiously trying to trade down, but I think he's their guy.
4. Indianapolis=Anthony Richardson QB Florida, I'm not buying the Levis talk at all, feels somewhat like the Mac Jones is going 3rd to SF talk from a couple years ago to me. I don't see Ballard being able to turn down Richardson's traits, and Irsay will love the attention it brings.
5. Seattle=Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech, I think his size fits an older school HC like Carroll, and I think at the end of the day, its between him and Carter, and Carter's red flags are bigger.
6. Detroit=Devin Witherspoon CB Illinois, perfect fit for the defense, and the Okudah trade makes this more of a need.
7. Las Vegas-Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon, Al Davis would live this pick, as Gonzalez has Raider measurables. Being that their #1 CB is Nate Hobbs, you could say its a need.
8. Atlanta=Bijan Robinson RB Texas, I still honestly think he could go higher, but this feels like a great fit. Best RB prospect in at least 5 years goes to the 2nd most run heavy team in the NFL.
9. Chicago=Jalen Carter DT Georgia, I think his mini fall ends here. Ironcically before the trade down, and the off-field stuff, Carter was often mocked to the Bears at #1.
10. Philadelphia=Nolan Smith DE Georgia, feels like he's steadily moving up, and the Eagles know how to use a player like this in their heavy DL rotation.
11. Tennessee=Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio State, still not feeling Levis here. JSN gives them a true #1, allowing Burks to shine more as a #2.
12. Houston=Lukas Van Ness DE Iowa, freakish talent that needs some refinement, Ryans gets his defensive centerpiece and his QB.
13. Green Bay=Paris Johnson OT Ohio State, not a pick I've seen in mocks, as he's often gone by now, but I think OTs fall a bit due to perceived depth.
14. New England=Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern, this falls perfectly for NE, as they can get a major OL upgrade, without passing on a top CB or EDGE.
15. NY Jets=Broderick Jones OT Georgia, keeping Aaron Rodgers upright is the most important goal the Jets have. Jones is a bit raw in my eyes, but he's an upgrade from what they have.
16. Washington=Joey Porter CB Penn State, maybe Dantzler bounces back in an actual NFL defense, but Porter gives them a guy with size and speed in the secondary.
17. Pittsburgh=Darnell Wright OT Tennessee, feels like a Steelers pick. Big time run blocker, who is a small question mark in the passing game due to gimmicky offense. Not saying he can't do it, just that the evidence is a bit skewed.
18. Detroit=Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh, anywhere from #10 to here feels like Kancey's range, so this is good fortune for the Lions.
19. Tampa Bay=Jordan Addison WR USC, on the surface this probably looks like a weird pick. WR is probably the strongest position on TB, that said, I don't think Mike Evans is necessarily long for the team, and Addison seems like he's liked a lot more by the NFL than by the media. Could see TB being proactive here.
20. Seattle=Will Levis QB Kentucky, the "slide" finally ends, in a spot where Levis can be built up and brought along slowly.
21. LA Chargers=Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame, the Chargers have been telling everyone that getting receiving help is priority #1, and Mayer offers Hockenson like ability with better blocking.
22. Baltimore=Deonte Banks CB Maryland, pretty much a perfect marriage of need/talent.
23, Minnesota=Zay Flowers WR Boston College, I don't think for a second KJ Osborn is a #2 WR. Flowers also adds some speed to clear out for JJ/Hock.
24. Jacksonville=Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State, another guy flying up boards, Jags have very few real holes for a mediocre team.
25. NY Giants=Brian Branch S Alabama, a great fit for Martindale's defense as a versatile DB you can ask to do most anything.
26. Dallas=Dalton Kincaid TE Utah, upgrading Daltons at TE. Kincaid has an Andrews level ceiling.
27. Buffalo=Quentin Johnston WR TCU, Bills have been pretty open about WR need, and Johnston offers something their other WRs don't, top notch RAC abilities.
28. Cincinnati=Bryan Bresee DT Clemson, a bit of a luxury pick, as the Bengals are pretty good at DT, nonetheless, a 3rd option is useful, and Bresee has a high ceiling, though he never really improved in college.
29. New Orleans=Myles Murphy DE Clemson, dream scenario for the Saints, Murphy was considered a top-5 prospect 3 months ago.
30. Philadelphia=Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama, offers so much in the receiving/big play department, I think he's too hard to pass up here. Penny/Hurts can handle the short yardage stuff.
31. Kansas City=Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma, Chiefs lost both starting Tackles from last season, and for some reason think Jawaan Taylor is good. Harrison would allow KC to at least keep Taylor at RT, where he'll be less exposed.
32. Pittsburgh=Will McDonald DE Iowa State, probably a better prospect than Highsmith, who I think will price himself out of the Steelers range anyway.
33. Houston=Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee, gives them a deep threat to go with Collins size, and hopefully Metchie's slot work.
34. Arizona=Cam Smith CB South Carolina, #1 CB is currently Marco Wilson, so yeah, help is needed.
35. Indianapolis=Kelee Ringo CB Georgia, a Ballard type through and through. Ringo could potentially move to Safety, but his tools are tough to see falling further than this.
36. LA Rams=Keion White DE Georgia Tech, I'm still kinda shocked he was invited to the draft. I think he's a 2/3 level prospect, but that makes me think the NFL likes him more than I do, still hard to see in round 1. Rams D is probably the worst in the NFL on paper, yes even with Donald, so anything helps.
37. Seattle=Mazi Smith DT Michigan, Seahawks keep hitting the DL just like they did a year ago with the OL.
38. Las Vegas=Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee, I swear this isn't just for the Hooker in Vegas jokes. I think he's a guy McDaniels will like, and Jimmy G is what he is, a guy you always want to be trying to improve from.
39. Carolina=Adetomiwa Adebawore DE Northwestern, despite his size he's clearly quick enough to stay outside. I think he'd offer a nice compliment to Brian Burns.
40. New Orleans=O'Cyrus Torrence G Florida, the Sainst have 2 1st round picks at Guard, but neither are particularly good. Ruiz in particular has been a bust. Torrence should open some big holes in the run game.
41. Tennessee=BJ Ojulari DE LSU, Titans fans are probably disappointed not to get an OL in round 1 or 2, but I don't see Dawand Jones as their type, and its too high for Mauch. Ojulari gives them an option opposite Landry, that doesn't force them to be relying on Arden Key.
42. Green Bay=Darnell Washington TE Georgia, kinda feels like 50% of the Packers scouting is just watching Georgia games. But seriously, Washington's upside is sky-high, and the worst case is he's a top-notch blocker.
43. NY Jets=John Michael Schmitz C Minnesota, fits well in the zone blocking scheme in NY, and again, protecting Rodgers priority #1.
44. Atlanta=Josh Downs WR North Carolina, perfect complement to London/Pitts as a quick strike player in the middle of the field.
45. Green Bay=Cedric Tillman WR Tennessee, I think he goes a little higher than expected just due to having some size. The Packers need to make Jordan Love's job as easy as possible and 3 offensive picks in the top-45 will certainly help.
46. New England=Antonio Johnson S Texas A&M, classic Belichick type as a CB/S tweener.
47. Washington=Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State, gives the offense a much needed seam stretcher.
48. Detroit=Drew Sanders LB Arkansas, another high-upside addition for the defense.
49. Pittsburgh=Jartavius Martin S Illinois, another versatile CB/S tweener, of which the Steelers could use either.
50. Tampa Bay=Julius Brents CB Kansas State, Bucs fan probably would want an OL here, but I think Tampa again goes BPA. I wouldn't rule out a post draft reunion with Donovan Smith at a much cheaper price than a year ago.
51. Miami=Sam LaPorta TE Iowa, McDaniel gets his new Kittle. Ok, maybe not, but they get a much cheaper and probably better Gesicki replacement.
52. Seattle=DJ Turner CB Michigan, Seattle tends to prefer bigger CBs, but I think they'll make an exception for a guy with Turner's speed.
53. Chicago=Dawand Jones OT Ohio State, I think his weight issues, and the recent history of OTs with weight issues, leads to a bit of a fall for Jones. I think the Bears OL is actually pretty solid, but this is a nice value and he'd start at RT. Some may prefer safer picks from a team rebuilding like the Bears, but I think fence swings make more sense.
54. LA Chargers=Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas State, pretty much nothing behind Bosa/Mack, and who knows how long Mack will be around?
55. Detroit=Tucker Kraft TE South Dakota State, can't see them going in with the TEs they have, especially now that Jameson Williams is out for 6 weeks. Be kind of ironic to take a TE with a pick they got for Hockenson, but its a sizeable need, and the defense has added 3 likely starters to this point.
56. Jacksonville=Keeanu Benton DT Wisconsin, despite the recent Davin Hamilton extension, DT is still a position the Jags could use some help at.
57. NY Giants=Steve Avila G TCU, LG is a hole, and Avila is an ideal fit.
58. Dallas=Tyler Scott WR Cincinnati, unless he bounces back big this year, I think Michael Gallup isn't long for the Cowboys. Scott brings a true deep threat skill set, and while a bit of a luxury pick (WR might be the strongest position on Dallas), I think he'd have a role.
59. Buffalo=Jack Campbell LB Iowa, an ideal situation for Buffalo getting Campbell to replace Tremaine Edmunds. You lose some speed sure, but Campbell might end up being a better overall LB.
60. Cincinnati=Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA, I'm not sure he'd push Mixon off the roster, but I think he could certainly take a Perine sized chunk of the work as a rookie, with upside for more.
61. Chicago=Jonathan Mingo WR Mississippi, another shot at high upside, Mingo profiles as a poor man's Deebo Samuel, and brings a different skill set to what the Bears currently have at WR, but he's also raw enough, that he's probably not playing ahead of Claypool/Mooney this year, but has the upside to be ahead of either in the future.
62. Philadelphia=Sydney Brown S Illinois, one of my favorite players in the draft. Brown gives them a rangy safety on the back end, to go with Edmunds/Blankenship.
63. Kansas City=Marvin Mims WR Oklahoma, gives KC a deep threat to compliment the RAC options of Toney/Moore.
33. Houston=Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee, gives them a deep threat to go with Collins size, and hopefully Metchie's slot work.
34. Arizona=Cam Smith CB South Carolina, #1 CB is currently Marco Wilson, so yeah, help is needed.
35. Indianapolis=Kelee Ringo CB Georgia, a Ballard type through and through. Ringo could potentially move to Safety, but his tools are tough to see falling further than this.
36. LA Rams=Keion White DE Georgia Tech, I'm still kinda shocked he was invited to the draft. I think he's a 2/3 level prospect, but that makes me think the NFL likes him more than I do, still hard to see in round 1. Rams D is probably the worst in the NFL on paper, yes even with Donald, so anything helps.
37. Seattle=Mazi Smith DT Michigan, Seahawks keep hitting the DL just like they did a year ago with the OL.
38. Las Vegas=Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee, I swear this isn't just for the Hooker in Vegas jokes. I think he's a guy McDaniels will like, and Jimmy G is what he is, a guy you always want to be trying to improve from.
39. Carolina=Adetomiwa Adebawore DE Northwestern, despite his size he's clearly quick enough to stay outside. I think he'd offer a nice compliment to Brian Burns.
40. New Orleans=O'Cyrus Torrence G Florida, the Sainst have 2 1st round picks at Guard, but neither are particularly good. Ruiz in particular has been a bust. Torrence should open some big holes in the run game.
41. Tennessee=BJ Ojulari DE LSU, Titans fans are probably disappointed not to get an OL in round 1 or 2, but I don't see Dawand Jones as their type, and its too high for Mauch. Ojulari gives them an option opposite Landry, that doesn't force them to be relying on Arden Key.
42. Green Bay=Darnell Washington TE Georgia, kinda feels like 50% of the Packers scouting is just watching Georgia games. But seriously, Washington's upside is sky-high, and the worst case is he's a top-notch blocker.
43. NY Jets=John Michael Schmitz C Minnesota, fits well in the zone blocking scheme in NY, and again, protecting Rodgers priority #1.
44. Atlanta=Josh Downs WR North Carolina, perfect complement to London/Pitts as a quick strike player in the middle of the field.
45. Green Bay=Cedric Tillman WR Tennessee, I think he goes a little higher than expected just due to having some size. The Packers need to make Jordan Love's job as easy as possible and 3 offensive picks in the top-45 will certainly help.
46. New England=Antonio Johnson S Texas A&M, classic Belichick type as a CB/S tweener.
47. Washington=Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State, gives the offense a much needed seam stretcher.
48. Detroit=Drew Sanders LB Arkansas, another high-upside addition for the defense.
49. Pittsburgh=Jartavius Martin S Illinois, another versatile CB/S tweener, of which the Steelers could use either.
50. Tampa Bay=Julius Brents CB Kansas State, Bucs fan probably would want an OL here, but I think Tampa again goes BPA. I wouldn't rule out a post draft reunion with Donovan Smith at a much cheaper price than a year ago.
51. Miami=Sam LaPorta TE Iowa, McDaniel gets his new Kittle. Ok, maybe not, but they get a much cheaper and probably better Gesicki replacement.
52. Seattle=DJ Turner CB Michigan, Seattle tends to prefer bigger CBs, but I think they'll make an exception for a guy with Turner's speed.
53. Chicago=Dawand Jones OT Ohio State, I think his weight issues, and the recent history of OTs with weight issues, leads to a bit of a fall for Jones. I think the Bears OL is actually pretty solid, but this is a nice value and he'd start at RT. Some may prefer safer picks from a team rebuilding like the Bears, but I think fence swings make more sense.
54. LA Chargers=Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas State, pretty much nothing behind Bosa/Mack, and who knows how long Mack will be around?
55. Detroit=Tucker Kraft TE South Dakota State, can't see them going in with the TEs they have, especially now that Jameson Williams is out for 6 weeks. Be kind of ironic to take a TE with a pick they got for Hockenson, but its a sizeable need, and the defense has added 3 likely starters to this point.
56. Jacksonville=Keeanu Benton DT Wisconsin, despite the recent Davin Hamilton extension, DT is still a position the Jags could use some help at.
57. NY Giants=Steve Avila G TCU, LG is a hole, and Avila is an ideal fit.
58. Dallas=Tyler Scott WR Cincinnati, unless he bounces back big this year, I think Michael Gallup isn't long for the Cowboys. Scott brings a true deep threat skill set, and while a bit of a luxury pick (WR might be the strongest position on Dallas), I think he'd have a role.
59. Buffalo=Jack Campbell LB Iowa, an ideal situation for Buffalo getting Campbell to replace Tremaine Edmunds. You lose some speed sure, but Campbell might end up being a better overall LB.
60. Cincinnati=Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA, I'm not sure he'd push Mixon off the roster, but I think he could certainly take a Perine sized chunk of the work as a rookie, with upside for more.
61. Chicago=Jonathan Mingo WR Mississippi, another shot at high upside, Mingo profiles as a poor man's Deebo Samuel, and brings a different skill set to what the Bears currently have at WR, but he's also raw enough, that he's probably not playing ahead of Claypool/Mooney this year, but has the upside to be ahead of either in the future.
62. Philadelphia=Sydney Brown S Illinois, one of my favorite players in the draft. Brown gives them a rangy safety on the back end, to go with Edmunds/Blankenship.
63. Kansas City=Marvin Mims WR Oklahoma, gives KC a deep threat to compliment the RAC options of Toney/Moore.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Your best work yet.
I hope you updated your entry into the draft contest.
I hope you updated your entry into the draft contest.
Deamon
Footballguy
Woo hoo! The Encore chants were heard and honoured. Thanks!
I like this one a lot better. Will be really intresting to see if Levis and Hooker fall like you think they do (Hooker in Vegas would be hilarious like you say)
Donnybrook
Footballguy
23, Minnesota=Zay Flowers WR Boston College, I don't think for a second KJ Osborn is a #2 WR. Flowers also adds some speed to clear out for JJ/Hock.
Could happen if Kwesi ignores the problem and hope it goes away. The problem is Vikings' defense ranked 31st in the NFL last season. It is a deep CB class and might be able to get one in the 3rd. Honestly I hope he adds multiple defensive players because he has yet to draft a defensive player that is a full time starter.
Could happen if Kwesi ignores the problem and hope it goes away. The problem is Vikings' defense ranked 31st in the NFL last season. It is a deep CB class and might be able to get one in the 3rd. Honestly I hope he adds multiple defensive players because he has yet to draft a defensive player that is a full time starter.
I think the defense wasn't anywhere near the 31st best in talent. I think Donatell was about the worst DC in the NFL in probably a decade. Far too often it felt like the Vikings were playing prevent as a base. I think Flores can get them to top-15 with basically the same talent. I do think CB is a need, and Banks would be in play if he makes it to 23.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Definitely spot on for what the Eagles would do.
Personally, I'd be a bit disappointed if Carter went 1 pick before them. Hope if he's still there at 8 the Eagles try to trade up with Atlanta to get him.
Personally, I'd be a bit disappointed if Carter went 1 pick before them. Hope if he's still there at 8 the Eagles try to trade up with Atlanta to get him.
Completely agree with this. Their defense talent wise wasn't as bad as their play of the field and that was 100% on the DC. I am really looking forward to what Flores will do as I really liked that hire. I was very disappointed in ZaDarius wanting out (and can't figure out why) as I think he and Hunter bring a lot to the table as a duo.
BigJim®
Footballguy
FWIW, on KFAN this AM Bercich and PA got me off the ledge from seeing all these WR takes... opining this is a very unlikely position for the Vikes 1st. Maybe in the 3rd or 4th. They are usually pretty plugged in.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
There is only so much a DC can do. It not like they didn’t suck under Zimmer. That why I dead against trading up because I think the law of averages comes calling next season and they end up on the wrong side of the one score games. I know that I tend to be pessimistic. See many draftniks mocking WR, QB and RB early and I can’t help to think that fantasy football is too much on their brains.
Well, through round 1 I'd say the biggest loser is easily Detroit, who after 1 year of competency, is back to their foolish ways. 2 1st rounds picks, and they take 2 non-premium positions, and 1 of which was at maybe the strongest position on the team. I know Swift has worn out his welcome a bit, but Gibbs at 12 was the worst pick of the 1st round in my eyes, and Campbell was bottom 3.
The biggest winner is clearly Philly. Fleecing the scaredy cat Bears for Carter, and then getting the best value so far in Nolan Smith. The rich got richer.
Another favorite pick of mine was Dalton Kincaid. I've always thought Dawson Knox was JAG, but he put up numbers because Josh Allen is elite. Kincaid is a huge upgrade and could be the #2 pass catcher on the team real quick. I really love the fits of Bryce Young to Carolina, Will Anderson to Houston, Bijan Robinson to Atlanta, and Jordan Addison to Minnesota.
The biggest winner is clearly Philly. Fleecing the scaredy cat Bears for Carter, and then getting the best value so far in Nolan Smith. The rich got richer.
Another favorite pick of mine was Dalton Kincaid. I've always thought Dawson Knox was JAG, but he put up numbers because Josh Allen is elite. Kincaid is a huge upgrade and could be the #2 pass catcher on the team real quick. I really love the fits of Bryce Young to Carolina, Will Anderson to Houston, Bijan Robinson to Atlanta, and Jordan Addison to Minnesota.
Deamon
Footballguy
pretty solid mock, hit way more picks than i did.
Feels surreal to get Carter and Smith.
Hit roughly 25%, which I'll take. About 40% if its just matching position to team.
Lost in Philly's great work is Seattle also knocking it out of the park. As long as Geno wasn't a fluke, no reason they can't stay a playoff team.
Was really surprised Joey Porter wasn't a 1st rounder. Have to think he's a top-3 pick on day 2. Maybe the Lions can redeem themselves a little bit there?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You’ve been predicting Bijan top 10 for as long as anyone. Nailed it.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I have no doubt they have interest in Nolan Smith. He's one of the players they brought in for a pre-draft visit. Lucas Van Ness is another guy they're interested in, I just think Smith fits their profile better. He's basically Hasaan Reddick build with blazing speed. Eagles past history suggests that they will be taking one of the players on the pre-draft visit list. When I look at their DT visits, it's Jalen Carter and then a bunch of guys who they can get in rounds 2-4. Kancey isn't on that list.
Reading the tea leaves, if they take a DT at 10, it will be Carter. With 30, they'll probably go defensive back, either Branch or a CB.
Tracking Eagles top-30 prospect visits in 2023
As we near the 2023 NFL Draft, we’ll be tracking all of the Eagles’ reported top-30 visits. By Dave Zangarowww.nbcsports.com
I was spot on with this analysis. Only miss was I didn't think Nolan Smith would be available at #30. Eagles brought in both Carter and Smith for top 30 visits.
Yep. I grossly overestimated the competency of other GMs, as the Eagles killed it in round 1.
I have no doubt they have interest in Nolan Smith. He's one of the players they brought in for a pre-draft visit. Lucas Van Ness is another guy they're interested in, I just think Smith fits their profile better. He's basically Hasaan Reddick build with blazing speed. Eagles past history suggests that they will be taking one of the players on the pre-draft visit list. When I look at their DT visits, it's Jalen Carter and then a bunch of guys who they can get in rounds 2-4. Kancey isn't on that list.
Reading the tea leaves, if they take a DT at 10, it will be Carter. With 30, they'll probably go defensive back, either Branch or a CB.
Tracking Eagles top-30 prospect visits in 2023
As we near the 2023 NFL Draft, we’ll be tracking all of the Eagles’ reported top-30 visits. By Dave Zangaro
I was spot on with this analysis. Only miss was I didn't think Nolan Smith would be available at #30. Eagles brought in both Carter and Smith for top 30 visits.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Yep. I grossly overestimated the competency of other GMs, as the Eagles killed it in round 1.
I have no doubt they have interest in Nolan Smith. He's one of the players they brought in for a pre-draft visit. Lucas Van Ness is another guy they're interested in, I just think Smith fits their profile better. He's basically Hasaan Reddick build with blazing speed. Eagles past history suggests that they will be taking one of the players on the pre-draft visit list. When I look at their DT visits, it's Jalen Carter and then a bunch of guys who they can get in rounds 2-4. Kancey isn't on that list.
Reading the tea leaves, if they take a DT at 10, it will be Carter. With 30, they'll probably go defensive back, either Branch or a CB.
Tracking Eagles top-30 prospect visits in 2023
As we near the 2023 NFL Draft, we’ll be tracking all of the Eagles’ reported top-30 visits. By Dave Zangaro
I was spot on with this analysis. Only miss was I didn't think Nolan Smith would be available at #30. Eagles brought in both Carter and Smith for top 30 visits.
Florio's report on Carter was pretty unflattering. Philly was probably the one team that has the infrastructure (meaning Jordan Davis) in place to help Carter become a good pro. They had an on paper good day, whether that translates into on gameday good days is TBD. I'm happy with the outcome though.
Maggot Brain
Footballguy
Here's a write-up on how all the 'so called experts' did in their mocksl....not impressed.
https://www.bleedinggreennation.com...3-accuracy-football-grading-scores-will-levis
https://www.bleedinggreennation.com...3-accuracy-football-grading-scores-will-levis
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Pretty unfair to mockers.
For example, Todd McShay had Nolan Smith at #10. It was listed as his worst pick, non-Levis pick. Smith may very well have been the pick there if Philly doesn't trade up to get Jalen Carter. McShay literally could have had the Eagles day 1 draft board and gotten the #10 pick wrong since Philly didn't pick #10.
I thought @travdogg 2nd mock was really good. Best one I saw throughout the whole process. Seattle at #5 set off a domino effect. If Seattle takes Wilson at #5, then Detroit may have stayed and taken Witherspoon at #6. Then it's possible that Vegas takes Gonzalez at #7. But once Witherspoon is gone, Detroit trades out and now the pick is Arizona who has different needs (taking Johnson) which cause Wilson to drop to Vegas, which then may have caused Gonazlez to drop.
