[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (1 Viewer)

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Forte's numbers come as the starting RB, Jones come as one of three RBs. And you conveniently ignore the meaningful numbers and production per touch.Forte has less than half the talent Jones has. The difference in numbers is a product of opportunity, not talent.

Explain to me then why Barber averaged 4.4, Choice 5.3, and Felix 5.6....that the Cowboy situation wasn't favorable to RB's.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Felix and Norwood have the same types of games. Speed backs that run mostly outside....don't run with a ton of power and have small lower bodies.

Felix Jones(first 2 years....FBG's has him 5'10 207 BTW):

146 for 951 6.5 6 tds 21rec 129 0 td

Jerious Norwood(first 2 years....FBG's has him 6'0 204):

201 for 1248 6.2 3 tds 40rec 379 0 td

Matt Forte(first 2 years):

574 for 2167 3.8 12 tds 120rec 948 4 tds

Tashard Choice two years in the league:

156 for 821 5.3 5 td 36rec 317 0td

Wierd how Choice has been almost as productive as Felix in the same time frame....hmmm

Wow... you really stuck your foot in your mouth here. Have you ever seen Felix OR Norwood play? Their games are not similar except they both are fast. Felix runs very well inside, actually.And I'm left wondering how 10 MORE carries for 130 LESS yards is "almost as productive"

I did? I watched a 2009 clip of Felix Jones today on youtube....I didn't see any run on the inside....everything is bounced outside.

I have seen him play....and I don't think he runs very well inside.

Watch a clip of Norwood and then of Felix....similar.

Obviously Felix has a better YPC.....but it is close...considering they both were behind Barber and in the same offense.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Haha....ask anyone that has played in a league with me....I dominate.

The truest sign someone is really losing an argumentthats all you could pick out....come on

1st round RB's rarely sit and don't start two years into the league.

It is also rare for a "explosive, speed, uber talented" RB to have 21 catches in 2 years....whats going on with that? Hightower had 3 times that this past year.

And then out come these gems.... hahahahhahaha wow...I know....21 catches is disappointing....then some 5th round pick from Richmond catches 3 times that in one season splitting time as well....its sad.

 

[Instinctive]

As a DFW resident and somebody who has to watch all the Cowboys games, and as a guy who is way lower than most on Felix...he definitely runs inside. But 8 yard runs to the inside aren't youtube worthy like 20+ yard runs to the outside.

And a situation favorable to RBs is very different from one favorable to A RB. Forte's massive opportunity has given him numbers. His lack of talent has held those numbers back from what they could be.

 

[switz]

This thread is about Forte....about why he isn't regarded highly despite others (Felix Jones) are valued above him.

Here's the simplest reason:Forte's production has been all about a LOT of opportunity, as his production PER TOUCH is very very very very low. Now the handwriting is on the wall that his opportunity will decrease, meaning his overall production is going DOWN. Thus his value is going down.Felix Jones production has been limited due to a lack of opportunity (two other RBs, and some health issues). However his production per touch has been extremely high, and all signs indicate his opportunity is going UP. Thus his value is going up.There are also a number of historical factors that come into play when considering Forte (or Jones). Runningbacks with Forte's history tend not to retain their starting jobs over many years (Kareen Abdul Jabbar, Antowain Smith, Kevan Barlow, etc.)On the other hand, runningbacks who produce in limited opportunity like Jones, eventually end up getting a very large share of the carries for their team, even if they start off as backups (Tiki Barber, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Neal Anderson). This is especially common when the team has an established starter on the team (a la Barber).

 

[corpcow]

I'd easily give a late 1st.

It's amazing how much people overreact in both ways. I'd certainly trade an early 2nd for Forte depending on my team situation, and I've been one of his harshest critics.

I dealt Forte right before the Taylor signing, but I would probably trade a pick after the 1.09 to get him back. Problem is, most owners will not sell him at that price. They look at his past numbers and/or what they paid to get him, so they would likely require more in a trade for him.

Exactly. Forte would be a good buy low, but no one is selling him low because everyone knows his value is low. The reason why I would be willing to buy him for a 2nd round is the same reason the other owner likely isn't willing to sell for that price

and thanks for making my point

What point was that? Early 2nd are usually a pretty speculative pick at least in my 16 team, non-PPR league. So, at that price, I'd be willing to speculate on him.But, Forte owners just acquired him themselves for 1.04-1.06 or paid a much higher premium after his rookie season... so for them, given what they've already invested in, his value has an anchor and it emphasizes that they're selling low. This doesn't mean it's RIGHT - just like it may or may not be right to hold on to a stock too long just because you bought it too high and don't want to take a loss. (If you're interested in the psychology behind this, check out Dan Ariely's Predictably Irrational and some other related books...)Neither myself or EBF - to of the early critics here - said he was worthless, only that he was severely overrated when he was being listed as a top 5-6 dynasty back. Now, as I said, it may be that the pendulum has swung too far the other way... but that's only true if the owner is willing to sell at that price.

 

[switz]

Felix and Norwood have the same types of games. Speed backs that run mostly outside....don't run with a ton of power and have small lower bodies.

Felix Jones(first 2 years....FBG's has him 5'10 207 BTW):

146 for 951 6.5 6 tds 21rec 129 0 td

Jerious Norwood(first 2 years....FBG's has him 6'0 204):

201 for 1248 6.2 3 tds 40rec 379 0 td

Matt Forte(first 2 years):

574 for 2167 3.8 12 tds 120rec 948 4 tds

Tashard Choice two years in the league:

156 for 821 5.3 5 td 36rec 317 0td

Wierd how Choice has been almost as productive as Felix in the same time frame....hmmm

Wow... you really stuck your foot in your mouth here. Have you ever seen Felix OR Norwood play? Their games are not similar except they both are fast. Felix runs very well inside, actually.And I'm left wondering how 10 MORE carries for 130 LESS yards is "almost as productive"

I did? I watched a 2009 clip of Felix Jones today on youtube....I didn't see any run on the inside....everything is bounced outside.

I have seen him play....and I don't think he runs very well inside.

Watch a clip of Norwood and then of Felix....similar.

Obviously Felix has a better YPC.....but it is close...considering they both were behind Barber and in the same offense.

It's fine for you to have an opinion that Felix doesn't run well inside... but it's just that, an opinion - and not based on much evidence. There's less evidence that Felix doesn't run well inside, than there is that Forte is likely to be replaced sooner than later.As for Choice YPC, he also ran most his snaps this season as a WildCat QB, and on third down... both situations that allow you to get downfield faster before getting touched - by starting closer to the line, and by running when the pass is expected. It's little things like that which help a knowledgeable football fan see the difference between NUMBERS and PERFORMANCE.

You're sorta stuck on the NUMBERS part I think.... but there's more to projection than overall numbers... which again is why people are down on Forte and high on Jones.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

This thread is about Forte....about why he isn't regarded highly despite others (Felix Jones) are valued above him.

Here's the simplest reason:Forte's production has been all about a LOT of opportunity, as his production PER TOUCH is very very very very low. Now the handwriting is on the wall that his opportunity will decrease, meaning his overall production is going DOWN. Thus his value is going down.Felix Jones production has been limited due to a lack of opportunity (two other RBs, and some health issues). However his production per touch has been extremely high, and all signs indicate his opportunity is going UP. Thus his value is going up.There are also a number of historical factors that come into play when considering Forte (or Jones). Runningbacks with Forte's history tend not to retain their starting jobs over many years (Kareen Abdul Jabbar, Antowain Smith, Kevan Barlow, etc.)On the other hand, runningbacks who produce in limited opportunity like Jones, eventually end up getting a very large share of the carries for their team, even if they start off as backups (Tiki Barber, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Neal Anderson). This is especially common when the team has an established starter on the team (a la Barber).

Nice breakdown Switz.While Forte has had the opportunity....b/c Chicago got rid of Benson upon him getting there....it is far from an ideal situation....watching games last year with that OL was bad. Combine that with his sprained knee in week 3....and I believe that accounts for the low per touch #'s.On the flip side though....the situation in Dallas is favorable for a RB....as I have outlined earlier. But will he ever have more than a 10-15 touches a game....for some games during a season....before he gets hurt. That's my question and it is tied in very deep to his value. Combine that with the fact that he is not a GL back or he doesn't catch a lot of balls....and i'm wondering how the values differ by a full round(rookie picks).

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Felix and Norwood have the same types of games. Speed backs that run mostly outside....don't run with a ton of power and have small lower bodies.

Felix Jones(first 2 years....FBG's has him 5'10 207 BTW):

146 for 951 6.5 6 tds 21rec 129 0 td

Jerious Norwood(first 2 years....FBG's has him 6'0 204):

201 for 1248 6.2 3 tds 40rec 379 0 td

Matt Forte(first 2 years):

574 for 2167 3.8 12 tds 120rec 948 4 tds

Tashard Choice two years in the league:

156 for 821 5.3 5 td 36rec 317 0td

Wierd how Choice has been almost as productive as Felix in the same time frame....hmmm

Wow... you really stuck your foot in your mouth here. Have you ever seen Felix OR Norwood play? Their games are not similar except they both are fast. Felix runs very well inside, actually.And I'm left wondering how 10 MORE carries for 130 LESS yards is "almost as productive"

I did? I watched a 2009 clip of Felix Jones today on youtube....I didn't see any run on the inside....everything is bounced outside.

I have seen him play....and I don't think he runs very well inside.

Watch a clip of Norwood and then of Felix....similar.

Obviously Felix has a better YPC.....but it is close...considering they both were behind Barber and in the same offense.

It's fine for you to have an opinion that Felix doesn't run well inside... but it's just that, an opinion - and not based on much evidence. There's less evidence that Felix doesn't run well inside, than there is that Forte is likely to be replaced sooner than later.As for Choice YPC, he also ran most his snaps this season as a WildCat QB, and on third down... both situations that allow you to get downfield faster before getting touched - by starting closer to the line, and by running when the pass is expected. It's little things like that which help a knowledgeable football fan see the difference between NUMBERS and PERFORMANCE.

You're sorta stuck on the NUMBERS part I think.... but there's more to projection than overall numbers... which again is why people are down on Forte and high on Jones.

And you have your opinion Switz....I haven't seen him run inside(heck anything between both B Gaps effectively.

You tie in Forte being replaced based on things though. You know he did sprain his knee in week 3.....and that effected him all of the season. What if Jones would've played through a significant injury(again Forte has toughness) and his #'s suffered.....I feel you would be barking up a different tree.

I know Choice was used in different ways....but so is Jones.....pitches, flips, counters, designed cutbacks to allow him to go to the OUTSIDE. That argument goes both ways. But in the end...the Dallas run blocking OL...allows for many RB's to succeed.

I think a lot of people love big plays and flashy players. Which is why they draft players in fantasy baseball b/c they can hit HR's vs guys that have a high OBP.

 

[Instinctive]

Felix and Norwood have the same types of games. Speed backs that run mostly outside....don't run with a ton of power and have small lower bodies.

Felix Jones(first 2 years....FBG's has him 5'10 207 BTW):

146 for 951 6.5 6 tds 21rec 129 0 td

Jerious Norwood(first 2 years....FBG's has him 6'0 204):

201 for 1248 6.2 3 tds 40rec 379 0 td

Matt Forte(first 2 years):

574 for 2167 3.8 12 tds 120rec 948 4 tds

Tashard Choice two years in the league:

156 for 821 5.3 5 td 36rec 317 0td

Wierd how Choice has been almost as productive as Felix in the same time frame....hmmm

Wow... you really stuck your foot in your mouth here. Have you ever seen Felix OR Norwood play? Their games are not similar except they both are fast. Felix runs very well inside, actually.And I'm left wondering how 10 MORE carries for 130 LESS yards is "almost as productive"

I did? I watched a 2009 clip of Felix Jones today on youtube....I didn't see any run on the inside....everything is bounced outside.

I have seen him play....and I don't think he runs very well inside.

Watch a clip of Norwood and then of Felix....similar.

Obviously Felix has a better YPC.....but it is close...considering they both were behind Barber and in the same offense.

It's fine for you to have an opinion that Felix doesn't run well inside... but it's just that, an opinion - and not based on much evidence. There's less evidence that Felix doesn't run well inside, than there is that Forte is likely to be replaced sooner than later.As for Choice YPC, he also ran most his snaps this season as a WildCat QB, and on third down... both situations that allow you to get downfield faster before getting touched - by starting closer to the line, and by running when the pass is expected. It's little things like that which help a knowledgeable football fan see the difference between NUMBERS and PERFORMANCE.

You're sorta stuck on the NUMBERS part I think.... but there's more to projection than overall numbers... which again is why people are down on Forte and high on Jones.

And you have your opinion Switz....I haven't seen him run inside(heck anything between both B Gaps effectively.

You tie in Forte being replaced based on things though. You know he did sprain his knee in week 3.....and that effected him all of the season. What if Jones would've played through a significant injury(again Forte has toughness) and his #'s suffered.....I feel you would be barking up a different tree.

I know Choice was used in different ways....but so is Jones.....pitches, flips, counters, designed cutbacks to allow him to go to the OUTSIDE. That argument goes both ways. But in the end...the Dallas run blocking OL...allows for many RB's to succeed.

I think a lot of people love big plays and flashy players. Which is why they draft players in fantasy baseball b/c they can hit HR's vs guys that have a high OBP.

As a DFW resident and somebody who has to watch all the Cowboys games, and as a guy who is way lower than most on Felix...he definitely runs inside. But 8 yard runs to the inside aren't youtube worthy like 20+ yard runs to the outside.And a situation favorable to RBs is very different from one favorable to A RB. Forte's massive opportunity has given him numbers. His lack of talent has held those numbers back from what they could be.

 

[Instinctive]

Also, Forte potentially being injured this past year doesn't mean his per touch numbers didn't still SUCK his rookie year...

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

What point was that? Early 2nd are usually a pretty speculative pick at least in my 16 team, non-PPR league. So, at that price, I'd be willing to speculate on him.But, Forte owners just acquired him themselves for 1.04-1.06 or paid a much higher premium after his rookie season... so for them, given what they've already invested in, his value has an anchor and it emphasizes that they're selling low. This doesn't mean it's RIGHT - just like it may or may not be right to hold on to a stock too long just because you bought it too high and don't want to take a loss. (If you're interested in the psychology behind this, check out Dan Ariely's Predictably Irrational and some other related books...)Neither myself or EBF - to of the early critics here - said he was worthless, only that he was severely overrated when he was being listed as a top 5-6 dynasty back. Now, as I said, it may be that the pendulum has swung too far the other way... but that's only true if the owner is willing to sell at that price.

How many are overreacting.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Also, Forte potentially being injured this past year doesn't mean his per touch numbers didn't still SUCK his rookie year...

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nfl/news/story?id=4844949Still that bad OL(remember they drafted a 1st round rookie OT that didn't play much all year and after the season signed 3 FA OL)

And a Marked man.....did you fear Orton(even with Marshall he didn't throw down field)....Marty Booker....Brandon Lloyd?

 

[switz]

You tie in Forte being replaced based on things though. You know he did sprain his knee in week 3.....and that effected him all of the season. What if Jones would've played through a significant injury(again Forte has toughness) and his #'s suffered.....I feel you would be barking up a different tree.

Jones did play through an injury this season, he played while wearing a brace for 3-4 games. And it did effect his numbers. His YPC was much lower after the injury than prior, and very low during the games he wore the brace. He had a 5 game stretch, where outside of a 46 yarder, his long was like 4, because he was injured.The problem is Forte's numbers per carry didn't really drop much due to the "knee" (0.3) - so why should we think it is the reason he was terrible? Maybe he's just terrible, with or without the knee injury. He wasn't injured in 08, and when did he get injured this past season? Because his numbers were bad right from the start, it's doubtful they were a product of injury IMO.

 

[switz]

And a Marked man.....did you fear Orton(even with Marshall he didn't throw down field)....Marty Booker....Brandon Lloyd?

Defenses obviously feared Orton was going to pass downfield enough for Forte to get 63 receptions his rookie season. He had 57 his second year, so it's hard to argue the QB change was what allowed/disallowed him to run well. In fact, there's basically no way to blame Orton for Forte's struggles, as Forte was even worse with Cutler.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

You tie in Forte being replaced based on things though. You know he did sprain his knee in week 3.....and that effected him all of the season. What if Jones would've played through a significant injury(again Forte has toughness) and his #'s suffered.....I feel you would be barking up a different tree.

Jones did play through an injury this season, he played while wearing a brace for 3-4 games. And it did effect his numbers. His YPC was much lower after the injury than prior, and very low during the games he wore the brace. He had a 5 game stretch, where outside of a 46 yarder, his long was like 4, because he was injured.The problem is Forte's numbers per carry didn't really drop much due to the "knee" (0.3) - so why should we think it is the reason he was terrible? Maybe he's just terrible, with or without the knee injury. He wasn't injured in 08, and when did he get injured this past season? Because his numbers were bad right from the start, it's doubtful they were a product of injury IMO.

Oh thats right...I knew Jones was injured for a couple games.Forte pulled his hammy in the offseason and I linked it above...but it was week 3.Maybe he is just terrible....haha. I also went into more about Forte above about 2008.Is Forte one of the best RB's in the NFL? No...but he is a good RB with all around skills.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

And a Marked man.....did you fear Orton(even with Marshall he didn't throw down field)....Marty Booker....Brandon Lloyd?

Defenses obviously feared Orton was going to pass downfield enough for Forte to get 63 receptions his rookie season. He had 57 his second year, so it's hard to argue the QB change was what allowed/disallowed him to run well. In fact, there's basically no way to blame Orton for Forte's struggles, as Forte was even worse with Cutler.

B/c a RB can't catch a ball unless the offense has a downfield threat?He was worse due to injury Switz and that OL.Brandon Lloyd and Marty Booker....and Hester trying to be a WR(and run blocking).

 

[switz]

Is Forte one of the best RB's in the NFL? No...but he is a good RB with all around skills.

And that's why is value is going to continue to drop. He'll probably stay in the league as a third down RB, and the lesser portion of RBBC, but he's not good enough to keep a starting job for long.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Is Forte one of the best RB's in the NFL? No...but he is a good RB with all around skills.

And that's why is value is going to continue to drop. He'll probably stay in the league as a third down RB, and the lesser portion of RBBC, but he's not good enough to keep a starting job for long.

Good RB's can be starting RB's switz. Felix Jones isn't one of the best RB's in the NFL either. But Jones isn't a GL guy or a 3rd down guy either.

 

[Instinctive]

Is Forte one of the best RB's in the NFL? No...but he is a good RB with all around skills.

And that's why is value is going to continue to drop. He'll probably stay in the league as a third down RB, and the lesser portion of RBBC, but he's not good enough to keep a starting job for long.

Good RB's can be starting RB's switz. Felix Jones isn't one of the best RB's in the NFL either. But Jones isn't a GL guy or a 3rd down guy either.

Again, gotta interrupt. Felix is an effective GL RB, in my experience of watchig him here at home. In my watching of Forte, I havent actually seen him score from the goalline. What sticks out to me is 4 times in a row from the ATL 1, 3 stuffs and a fumble.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Is Forte one of the best RB's in the NFL? No...but he is a good RB with all around skills.

And that's why is value is going to continue to drop. He'll probably stay in the league as a third down RB, and the lesser portion of RBBC, but he's not good enough to keep a starting job for long.

Good RB's can be starting RB's switz. Felix Jones isn't one of the best RB's in the NFL either. But Jones isn't a GL guy or a 3rd down guy either.

Again, gotta interrupt. Felix is an effective GL RB, in my experience of watchig him here at home. In my watching of Forte, I havent actually seen him score from the goalline. What sticks out to me is 4 times in a row from the ATL 1, 3 stuffs and a fumble.

Haha...u can interrupt all you want. I'm not saying Forte is a great GL guy by any means. I remember that series and knew Forte wasn't the same RB(later would find out about the knee) so I agree with you in that point. But running behind your pads is huge at the GL, along with vision(I think this is Felix's strength). He won't be a GL guy until he runs behind his pads though.

 

[imagroid]

Felix and Norwood have the same types of games. Speed backs that run mostly outside....don't run with a ton of power and have small lower bodies.

Felix Jones(first 2 years....FBG's has him 5'10 207 BTW):

146 for 951 6.5 6 tds 21rec 129 0 td

Jerious Norwood(first 2 years....FBG's has him 6'0 204):

201 for 1248 6.2 3 tds 40rec 379 0 td

Matt Forte(first 2 years):

574 for 2167 3.8 12 tds 120rec 948 4 tds

Tashard Choice two years in the league:

156 for 821 5.3 5 td 36rec 317 0td

Wierd how Choice has been almost as productive as Felix in the same time frame....hmmm

Wow... you really stuck your foot in your mouth here. Have you ever seen Felix OR Norwood play? Their games are not similar except they both are fast. Felix runs very well inside, actually.And I'm left wondering how 10 MORE carries for 130 LESS yards is "almost as productive"

Probably the 15 more balls he caught and almost 200 more rec yds.

This thread is about Forte....about why he isn't regarded highly despite others (Felix Jones) are valued above him.

Here's the simplest reason:Felix Jones production has been limited due to a lack of opportunity (two other RBs, and some health issues).

I'd say that's putting it nicely.

 

[brock]

Looks like he found his speed.

 

[basher]

Looks like he found his speed.

he had speed ... still doesn't have an o-line that can block for him. every handoff so far there is at least one DL in the backfield

 

[biggamer3]

what a start to season

 

[BoulderBob]

what a start to season

With Martz/Cutler, his line doesn't have to be great. Snag Chester, and laugh as you got a RB1 talent in the 4th round...

 

[jbz]

the run blocking is either really bad or Suh and the Lions DL are pretty damn good. I think it's a mixture of both.

 

[EBF]

I watched almost the entire game today. He made two huge plays in the passing game. The 89 yard TD catch was basically a gift from the defense. He did well to recognize the seam and get north-south, but it wasn't exactly a "wow" play. Just the right call at the right time with a lot of green grass in front of him. The second TD catch was more impressive. He ran a route down the sideline and made a nice adjustment for the twisting catch in the end zone.

There's no doubt that he has some skills as a receiver. On the other hand, his struggles in the rushing game continue. After being near the bottom of the league's starters in YPC last season he posted another stinker today with just 50 yards on 17 carries (2.9 YPC).

Forte was ranked as a consensus top 10 dynasty pick when I started this thread. I don't think there's any doubt that he was badly overrated at the time. On the other hand, I have never argued that he's complete crap with no place in the NFL. He's an adequate rusher and he adds value in the passing game. I actually think he could have a decent FF season again for the simple reason that the Bears still don't have any go-to playmakers to siphon away targets/carries.

Long term is he a stud talent? Absolutely not. His continued struggles to run the ball prove that.

 

[Badm]

I watched almost the entire game today. He made two huge plays in the passing game. The 89 yard TD catch was basically a gift from the defense. He did well to recognize the seam and get north-south, but it wasn't exactly a "wow" play. Just the right call at the right time with a lot of green grass in front of him. The second TD catch was more impressive. He ran a route down the sideline and made a nice adjustment for the twisting catch in the end zone.

There's no doubt that he has some skills as a receiver. On the other hand, his struggles in the rushing game continue. After being near the bottom of the league's starters in YPC last season he posted another stinker today with just 50 yards on 17 carries (2.9 YPC).

Forte was ranked as a consensus top 10 dynasty pick when I started this thread. I don't think there's any doubt that he was badly overrated at the time. On the other hand, I have never argued that he's complete crap with no place in the NFL. He's an adequate rusher and he adds value in the passing game. I actually think he could have a decent FF season again for the simple reason that the Bears still don't have any go-to playmakers to siphon away targets/carries.

Long term is he a stud talent? Absolutely not. His continued struggles to run the ball prove that.

What are you talking about? I'll never understand the lack of respect Forte gets.....The guy had 200 yards total offense. The 90 yard TD was a gift? He didn't break any tackles, but he out-manuevered and outran the whole team. If he had a decent hole to run through, he made it count. The O-Line sucks and he still put 200 together. Yep, he definitely isn't a stud nor top 10 dynasty pick... He is 24 and has run behind putrid O-Lines and still puts up #s....You need to re-watch the vids on him from today..

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010091207/2...ons@bears/watch

 

[EBF]

He had a very nice game today. I'm not trying to take that away from him. He'll continue to play a big role in the passing game and pick up some cheap points on receptions. Here's the thing...he's not a great running back. 3.9 YPC in 2008. 3.6 YPC in 2007. 2.9 YPC today. That's very poor rushing production over a massive sample size. He's just not an above average back when it comes to running the football.

I'm not saying there's no place for him in the NFL. There is. However, this thread was started when Forte was a consensus top 10-15 pick in dynasty startups. People thought he was an elite, superstar level talent. He isn't. He's a decent player who benefits tremendously from a system that feeds him the ball. He will need to maintain a very high level of productivity in the passing game if he's going to have a strong FF season because the past few years have clearly demonstrated that he struggles to generate production in the ground game.

 

[TitusIII]

Even though he will be a top 5 back in Martz's system, he'd be putting up 4.0+ or better RPC on a team with a half-way decen line. Guy is an above average back who has improved significantly(eye-test) since his rookie year. An injured 2009 doesn't matter to me...

 

[Badm]

He had a very nice game today. I'm not trying to take that away from him. He'll continue to play a big role in the passing game and pick up some cheap points on receptions. Here's the thing...he's not a great running back. 3.9 YPC in 2008. 3.6 YPC in 2007. 2.9 YPC today. That's very poor rushing production over a massive sample size. He's just not an above average back when it comes to running the football.

I'm not saying there's no place for him in the NFL. There is. However, this thread was started when Forte was a consensus top 10-15 pick in dynasty startups. People thought he was an elite, superstar level talent. He isn't. He's a decent player who benefits tremendously from a system that feeds him the ball. He will need to maintain a very high level of productivity in the passing game if he's going to have a strong FF season because the past few years have clearly demonstrated that he struggles to generate production in the ground game.

I watch every Bears game. The Bears O-Line is terrible. Even worse for run plays. TERRIBLE. Plus he played hurt most of last year. Whats Forte's ranking if you combine the past 2 seasons overall with your league's scoring system. In mine he is #10. And only 24. How is he not top 10-15 pick?

 

[loose circuits]

does the OP still have this same opinion? he was a top 10 back last year and off to a decent start this season. that catch and run he had Sunday where he trucked 2 different Falcons was a pretty good play

 

[jurb26]

Lots of crow to be served here. Forte just keeps on proving the doubters wrong, one game at a time.

 

[geoff8695]

Your query returned 20 records. NAME POS YRs G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT 1 Chris Johnson rb 2008--2011 48 934 4622 4.95 34 143 1033 7.22 4 793.5 2 Adrian Peterson rb 2008--2011 48 977 4545 4.65 40 102 908 8.90 1 791.3 3 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2008--2011 47 832 3636 4.37 33 149 1256 8.43 5 716.2 4 Michael Turner rb 2008--2011 44 899 4041 4.49 39 26 201 7.73 0 658.2 5 Matt Forte rb 2008--2011 49 827 3304 4.00 18 176 1585 9.01 8 644.9 6 Thomas Jones rb 2008--2011 49 869 3613 4.16 33 60 387 6.45 2 610.0 7 Steven Jackson rb 2008--2011 44 911 3764 4.13 18 136 1076 7.91 1 598.0 8 Frank Gore rb 2008--2011 40 694 3068 4.42 19 144 1250 8.68 7 587.8 9 Ray Rice rb 2008--2011 46 688 3123 4.54 13 178 1573 8.84 3 565.6 10 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2008--2011 46 739 2770 3.75 29 130 1021 7.85 1 559.1 11 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008--2011 36 589 3026 5.14 26 63 440 6.98 2 514.6 12 Jamaal Charles rb 2008--2011 48 497 3000 6.04 12 117 1046 8.94 6 512.6 13 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008--2011 45 596 2776 4.66 29 31 279 9.00 1 485.5 14 Cedric Benson rb 2008--2011 42 861 3230 3.75 16 66 476 7.21 1 472.6 15 Jonathan Stewart rb 2008--2011 47 589 2762 4.69 22 36 303 8.42 2 450.5 16 Fred Jackson rb 2008--2011 49 610 2672 4.38 10 115 908 7.90 4 447.4 17 Ricky Williams rb 2008--2011 49 572 2516 4.40 17 84 628 7.48 4 439.4 18 Ronnie Brown rb 2008--2011 42 565 2305 4.08 23 80 594 7.43 0 438.6 19 Rashard Mendenhall rb 2008--2011 37 597 2485 4.16 20 50 445 8.90 1 419.0 20 Darren McFadden rb 2008--2011 39 462 2162 4.68 12 98 1043 10.64 3 410.5
Obviously Forte is more valuable in PPR leagues, but look who's scored the 5th most fantasy points at RB in standard FBG scoring over the last 3 seasons combined.

Can we officially call this myth "busted" now?

 

[ffguru56]

I also tend to believe Forte's big knock is his YPC but is solely attributed to his O-line. With having only watched a small sample size of games it seems to be he doesn't have that elusiveness to necessarily create opportunities as consistent with top backs. However, he is regularly involved in the passing game, and for fantasy purposes, that adds up quickly.

I compare Forte to Chris Johnson, not because Forte can/will rush for over 2000 yards because I don't believe he ever will get close to that or because he has that game breaking speed as CJ has because he doesn't, but in a pure fantasy perspective I see stats throughout the course of the year that are very similar.

Both players are hit or miss. When they hit, they hit big (ie in our league Forte's Week 1 total (2011) was 40.40 points whereas that doubled the typical quality start for a rb). However, when they miss they also miss big like Weeks 3,4,7 etc last year when Forte had single digit points. Johnson does the exact same thing, but people overlook that because on any carry he can take it to the house and also because at the end of the seasons he has 2000 yards rushing. But last year he had a few weeks of single digit points: 2, 4, 12, 16 and that's not including 2-3 more weeks of mediocre numbers.

In retrospect, I don't care about the NFL RB differences between the two (though obviously it bodes well for their future in all regards) nor do I care how each of them get these big games, as long as they get them. What I care about is how they produce fantasy-wise and they both have that big-game potential. You just have to decide whether you want the stinkers that will come with it.

 

[C-Bound]

The guy is plenty fast and has great vision. Add in the passing game love and the OL issues are not much of a factor.

 

[squistion]

does the OP still have this same opinion? he was a top 10 back last year and off to a decent start this season. that catch and run he had Sunday where he trucked 2 different Falcons was a pretty good play

Probably, we are talking EBF here. This is the same person who predicted in McFadden's rookie year that he would be a bust in the NFL and has yet to recant on that - in fact as of last December he was still saying that McFadden had not shown that he was even "an above average starting RB" (and this was when DMC was second only to Foster in points scored per game). So, it is unlikely to ever see any admission of error (no matter how well Forte performs in the future).

 

[EBF]

does the OP still have this same opinion? he was a top 10 back last year and off to a decent start this season. that catch and run he had Sunday where he trucked 2 different Falcons was a pretty good play

Probably, we are talking EBF here. This is the same person who predicted in McFadden's rookie year that he would be a bust in the NFL and has yet to recant on that - in fact as of last December he was still saying that McFadden had not shown that he was even "an above average starting RB" (and this was when DMC was second only to Foster in points scored per game). So, it is unlikely to ever see any admission of error (no matter how well Forte performs in the future).

Get a life?

 

[squistion]

does the OP still have this same opinion? he was a top 10 back last year and off to a decent start this season. that catch and run he had Sunday where he trucked 2 different Falcons was a pretty good play

Probably, we are talking EBF here. This is the same person who predicted in McFadden's rookie year that he would be a bust in the NFL and has yet to recant on that - in fact as of last December he was still saying that McFadden had not shown that he was even "an above average starting RB" (and this was when DMC was second only to Foster in points scored per game). So, it is unlikely to ever see any admission of error (no matter how well Forte performs in the future).

Get a life?

I am not the one who bumped this thread - although I couldn't resist adding my two cents when I saw it back on the main board.

 

[EBF]

As for Forte, he has lasted a lot longer than I thought he would. I don't think he's among the best backs in the league and I still think he was overrated as a top 10 pick, but he's a solid player and productive for FF purposes because of his receiving skills.

 

[loose circuits]

he looked pretty fast on that long run

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Is Forte one of the best RB's in the NFL? No...but he is a good RB with all around skills.

And that's why is value is going to continue to drop. He'll probably stay in the league as a third down RB, and the lesser portion of RBBC, but he's not good enough to keep a starting job for long.

Update?

 

[loose circuits]

Is Forte one of the best RB's in the NFL? No...but he is a good RB with all around skills.

And that's why is value is going to continue to drop. He'll probably stay in the league as a third down RB, and the lesser portion of RBBC, but he's not good enough to keep a starting job for long.

Update?

he certainly looked good enough today

 

[GreatLakesMike]

As for Forte, he has lasted a lot longer than I thought he would. I don't think he's among the best backs in the league and I still think he was overrated as a top 10 pick, but he's a solid player and productive for FF purposes because of his receiving skills.

He's no Shonn Greene.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Maybe one of these years this thread will be right

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Sometimes people get it right sometimes ya get it wrong. Forte is a productive NFL player. Time to move along there really is no reason to debate

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Matt Forte, YOU ARE WHO WE THOUGHT YOU WERE!

Yes, a very good RB. On pace for over 2500 total yards.

 

[loose circuits]

Sometimes people get it right sometimes ya get it wrong. Forte is a productive NFL player. Time to move along there really is no reason to debate

yeah, but when you start a thread like this sure seems like you really are putting your reputation on the line here, no?Many people thought EBF was the man for this thread after Forte's 2nd season, but it clearly wasn't Forte that was struggling

 

[squistion]

Sometimes people get it right sometimes ya get it wrong. Forte is a productive NFL player. Time to move along there really is no reason to debate

yeah, but when you start a thread like this sure seems like you really are putting your reputation on the line here, no?Many people thought EBF was the man for this thread after Forte's 2nd season, but it clearly wasn't Forte that was struggling

Yes, and everybody makes wrong calls, but this thread took it a step further and was unequivocal about Forte's prospects - it wasn't your usual "Player X is overrated" thread. And we saw something similar prior to that with the constant "McFadden will fail in the NFL" meme his rookie year from the same poster. Anyway, I think people might have let it go if we hadn't been subjected to all the "I told you so!" comments the following season.