[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (1 Viewer)

[Maroney=Speed]

I think the mistake people make is assuming Forte is a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.Make no mistake...Matt Forte is a superior athlete with superior skills. Even if I didn't know his combine numbers, the tape doesn't lie. In the end, tho, we play FF, & everything points toward Forte being a top FF RB for a long time. Sometimes people forget we play FF. All that said, it would be boring if everybody had the same thoughts. I appreciate everyone's opinion. Still, I honestly can't see what's not to like.

I've always been told, 'information is only as good as were you get it from'. After looking at the drafts EBF did last year, yes only one year. This does not hold well. So sorry to say I have moved on from taking anything 'As knowledgeable coming from EBF'. Maybe 2009 will be different for EBF, but maybe things are what they are.

Well, I meant what's not to like about Forte, but like I said, it would be boring if everyone had the same opinions. Right?

Not sure how you thought it was in anyway a shot at you? But correct, I like when I rank someone higher than others and so on.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

I think one of the critical mistakes people make in evaluating Forte is assuming he's a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.

Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?

Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).

I'd disagree with that. The three drills that seem to have the most bearing on a RB's prospects are the 40, the vertical leap, and the broad jump. Guys like Donald Brown, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and LaDainian Tomlinson qualify as superior athletes when you look at these numbers:Donald Brown

40 - 4.48

Vertical Leap - 41.5"

Broad Jump - 10'5"

Chris Johnson

40 - 4.24

Vertical Leap - 35"

Broad Jump - 10'10"

Jonathan Stewart

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 36.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

Adrian Peterson

40 - 4.40

Vertical Leap - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'7"

Reggie Bush

40 - 4.37

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

LaDainian Tomlinson

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'4"

Forte doesn't stack up with these guys in any area except speed.

Matt Forte

40 - 4.44

Vertical Leap - 33"

Broad Jump - 9'10"

These are pretty pedestrian numbers. I've been studying combine results for a few years and I've noticed that tall players tend to do better than shorter players in the broad jump (presumably because they have longer legs), so Forte's 9'10" mark stands out as pretty poor. The verts were down by about 1-2" at the 2008 combine, so his 33" jump may have been closer to 35" in a normal year, but it's still at the bottom end of what you usually see from elite RB prospects. He certainly appears to be a notch or two below the elite athletes at the position. Donald Brown had a vastly superior combine.

Mediocre combine numbers aren't a death sentence, but when you combine them with a mediocre pedigree and mediocre performance on the football field, you have a pretty unattractive picture.

Please stop this, you were way wrong with the rookie class last year, way wrong. Move on, but I do give you credit for going down with a sinking ship.I'll help. Where would you rank(pick) Forte in a 12 team Dynasty League?

Thanks

 

[Football Jones]

I think the mistake people make is assuming Forte is a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.Make no mistake...Matt Forte is a superior athlete with superior skills. Even if I didn't know his combine numbers, the tape doesn't lie. In the end, tho, we play FF, & everything points toward Forte being a top FF RB for a long time. Sometimes people forget we play FF. All that said, it would be boring if everybody had the same thoughts. I appreciate everyone's opinion. Still, I honestly can't see what's not to like.

I've always been told, 'information is only as good as were you get it from'. After looking at the drafts EBF did last year, yes only one year. This does not hold well. So sorry to say I have moved on from taking anything 'As knowledgeable coming from EBF'. Maybe 2009 will be different for EBF, but maybe things are what they are.

Well, I meant what's not to like about Forte, but like I said, it would be boring if everyone had the same opinions. Right?

Not sure how you thought it was in anyway a shot at you? But correct, I like when I rank someone higher than others and so on.

You misunderstood me. I knew it wasn't a shot at me.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

I think the mistake people make is assuming Forte is a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.Make no mistake...Matt Forte is a superior athlete with superior skills. Even if I didn't know his combine numbers, the tape doesn't lie. In the end, tho, we play FF, & everything points toward Forte being a top FF RB for a long time. Sometimes people forget we play FF. All that said, it would be boring if everybody had the same thoughts. I appreciate everyone's opinion. Still, I honestly can't see what's not to like.

I've always been told, 'information is only as good as were you get it from'. After looking at the drafts EBF did last year, yes only one year. This does not hold well. So sorry to say I have moved on from taking anything 'As knowledgeable coming from EBF'. Maybe 2009 will be different for EBF, but maybe things are what they are.

Well, I meant what's not to like about Forte, but like I said, it would be boring if everyone had the same opinions. Right?

Not sure how you thought it was in anyway a shot at you? But correct, I like when I rank someone higher than others and so on.

You misunderstood me. I knew it wasn't a shot at me.

I knew that, just wanted to pile on. Sorry my bad, it was to easy. Won't happen again.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

Why are people arguing still with a guy that obviously never watched a single Forte game? He talks out of both sides of his mouth. He claims that Forte made no "great" plays yet those that watched his games would say otherwise. Dont fall for his trollness. Let him bypass Forte and wait til next year when he whines about his losing team....LOL Personally, I'd love to owners like him in my league because I'd dominate for many many years since I actually watch games and dont rely merely on stats.

 

[awesomeness]

I think one of the critical mistakes people make in evaluating Forte is assuming he's a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.

Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?

Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).

I'd disagree with that. The three drills that seem to have the most bearing on a RB's prospects are the 40, the vertical leap, and the broad jump. Guys like Donald Brown, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and LaDainian Tomlinson qualify as superior athletes when you look at these numbers:Donald Brown

40 - 4.48

Vertical Leap - 41.5"

Broad Jump - 10'5"

Chris Johnson

40 - 4.24

Vertical Leap - 35"

Broad Jump - 10'10"

Jonathan Stewart

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 36.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

Adrian Peterson

40 - 4.40

Vertical Leap - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'7"

Reggie Bush

40 - 4.37

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

LaDainian Tomlinson

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'4"

Forte doesn't stack up with these guys in any area except speed.

Matt Forte

40 - 4.44

Vertical Leap - 33"

Broad Jump - 9'10"

These are pretty pedestrian numbers. I've been studying combine results for a few years and I've noticed that tall players tend to do better than shorter players in the broad jump (presumably because they have longer legs), so Forte's 9'10" mark stands out as pretty poor. The verts were down by about 1-2" at the 2008 combine, so his 33" jump may have been closer to 35" in a normal year, but it's still at the bottom end of what you usually see from elite RB prospects. He certainly appears to be a notch or two below the elite athletes at the position. Donald Brown had a vastly superior combine.

Mediocre combine numbers aren't a death sentence, but when you combine them with a mediocre pedigree and mediocre performance on the football field, you have a pretty unattractive picture.

Please stop this, you were way wrong with the rookie class last year, way wrong. Move on, but I do give you credit for going down with a sinking ship.I'll help. Where would you rank(pick) Forte in a 12 team Dynasty League?

Thanks

Its way too early to judge last year's rookie crop. You won't be able to accurately judge it until at least 3 years after the draft takes place. Though if there is one person's rankings of last year draft that has proven to be "way wrong", it is yours as it is pretty clear that Johnathon Stewart is not going to be an NFL fullback as you claimed.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

I think one of the critical mistakes people make in evaluating Forte is assuming he's a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.

Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?

Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).

I'd disagree with that. The three drills that seem to have the most bearing on a RB's prospects are the 40, the vertical leap, and the broad jump. Guys like Donald Brown, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and LaDainian Tomlinson qualify as superior athletes when you look at these numbers:Donald Brown

40 - 4.48

Vertical Leap - 41.5"

Broad Jump - 10'5"

Chris Johnson

40 - 4.24

Vertical Leap - 35"

Broad Jump - 10'10"

Jonathan Stewart

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 36.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

Adrian Peterson

40 - 4.40

Vertical Leap - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'7"

Reggie Bush

40 - 4.37

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

LaDainian Tomlinson

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'4"

Forte doesn't stack up with these guys in any area except speed.

Matt Forte

40 - 4.44

Vertical Leap - 33"

Broad Jump - 9'10"

These are pretty pedestrian numbers. I've been studying combine results for a few years and I've noticed that tall players tend to do better than shorter players in the broad jump (presumably because they have longer legs), so Forte's 9'10" mark stands out as pretty poor. The verts were down by about 1-2" at the 2008 combine, so his 33" jump may have been closer to 35" in a normal year, but it's still at the bottom end of what you usually see from elite RB prospects. He certainly appears to be a notch or two below the elite athletes at the position. Donald Brown had a vastly superior combine.

Mediocre combine numbers aren't a death sentence, but when you combine them with a mediocre pedigree and mediocre performance on the football field, you have a pretty unattractive picture.

Please stop this, you were way wrong with the rookie class last year, way wrong. Move on, but I do give you credit for going down with a sinking ship.I'll help. Where would you rank(pick) Forte in a 12 team Dynasty League?

Thanks

Its way too early to judge last year's rookie crop. You won't be able to accurately judge it until at least 3 years after the draft takes place. Though if there is one person's rankings of last year draft that has proven to be "way wrong", it is yours as it is pretty clear that Johnathon Stewart is not going to be an NFL fullback as you claimed.

Its way too early to judge on that one. So what are your top ten rookies this year by the way?Thanks

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I think one of the critical mistakes people make in evaluating Forte is assuming he's a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.

Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?

Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).

I'd disagree with that. The three drills that seem to have the most bearing on a RB's prospects are the 40, the vertical leap, and the broad jump. Guys like Donald Brown, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and LaDainian Tomlinson qualify as superior athletes when you look at these numbers:Donald Brown

40 - 4.48

Vertical Leap - 41.5"

Broad Jump - 10'5"

Chris Johnson

40 - 4.24

Vertical Leap - 35"

Broad Jump - 10'10"

Jonathan Stewart

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 36.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

Adrian Peterson

40 - 4.40

Vertical Leap - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'7"

Reggie Bush

40 - 4.37

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

LaDainian Tomlinson

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'4"

Forte doesn't stack up with these guys in any area except speed.

Matt Forte

40 - 4.44

Vertical Leap - 33"

Broad Jump - 9'10"

These are pretty pedestrian numbers. I've been studying combine results for a few years and I've noticed that tall players tend to do better than shorter players in the broad jump (presumably because they have longer legs), so Forte's 9'10" mark stands out as pretty poor. The verts were down by about 1-2" at the 2008 combine, so his 33" jump may have been closer to 35" in a normal year, but it's still at the bottom end of what you usually see from elite RB prospects. He certainly appears to be a notch or two below the elite athletes at the position. Donald Brown had a vastly superior combine.

Mediocre combine numbers aren't a death sentence, but when you combine them with a mediocre pedigree and mediocre performance on the football field, you have a pretty unattractive picture.

Please stop this, you were way wrong with the rookie class last year, way wrong. Move on, but I do give you credit for going down with a sinking ship.I'll help. Where would you rank(pick) Forte in a 12 team Dynasty League?

Thanks

Its way too early to judge last year's rookie crop. You won't be able to accurately judge it until at least 3 years after the draft takes place. Though if there is one person's rankings of last year draft that has proven to be "way wrong", it is yours as it is pretty clear that Johnathon Stewart is not going to be an NFL fullback as you claimed.

Its way too early to judge on that one. So what are your top ten rookies this year by the way?Thanks

No, he pretty much nailed it. Stewart isn't going to be a fullback.

 

[EBF]

Personally, I'd love to owners like him in my league because I'd dominate for many many years since I actually watch games and dont rely merely on stats.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

I think one of the critical mistakes people make in evaluating Forte is assuming he's a marginal athlete. Not sure how that got started, but it's far from the truth. Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior at this year's combine, yet Forte is bigger, stronger, faster, & posted a better 3-cone time.

Donald Brown is being touted as a workout warrior?

Everything I've read says he pretty much killed the combine. My personal opinion is Brown excelled at the combine. I'd say workout warrior is a pretty apt description. Even EBF said Brown put up rare combine numbers.My point was to put to rest the silly talk of Forte not being a superior athlete. He certainly is (& with superior skills to boot).

I'd disagree with that. The three drills that seem to have the most bearing on a RB's prospects are the 40, the vertical leap, and the broad jump. Guys like Donald Brown, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, and LaDainian Tomlinson qualify as superior athletes when you look at these numbers:Donald Brown

40 - 4.48

Vertical Leap - 41.5"

Broad Jump - 10'5"

Chris Johnson

40 - 4.24

Vertical Leap - 35"

Broad Jump - 10'10"

Jonathan Stewart

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 36.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

Adrian Peterson

40 - 4.40

Vertical Leap - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'7"

Reggie Bush

40 - 4.37

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

LaDainian Tomlinson

40 - 4.46

Vertical Leap - 40.5"

Broad Jump - 10'4"

Forte doesn't stack up with these guys in any area except speed.

Matt Forte

40 - 4.44

Vertical Leap - 33"

Broad Jump - 9'10"

These are pretty pedestrian numbers. I've been studying combine results for a few years and I've noticed that tall players tend to do better than shorter players in the broad jump (presumably because they have longer legs), so Forte's 9'10" mark stands out as pretty poor. The verts were down by about 1-2" at the 2008 combine, so his 33" jump may have been closer to 35" in a normal year, but it's still at the bottom end of what you usually see from elite RB prospects. He certainly appears to be a notch or two below the elite athletes at the position. Donald Brown had a vastly superior combine.

Mediocre combine numbers aren't a death sentence, but when you combine them with a mediocre pedigree and mediocre performance on the football field, you have a pretty unattractive picture.

Please stop this, you were way wrong with the rookie class last year, way wrong. Move on, but I do give you credit for going down with a sinking ship.I'll help. Where would you rank(pick) Forte in a 12 team Dynasty League?

Thanks

Its way too early to judge last year's rookie crop. You won't be able to accurately judge it until at least 3 years after the draft takes place. Though if there is one person's rankings of last year draft that has proven to be "way wrong", it is yours as it is pretty clear that Johnathon Stewart is not going to be an NFL fullback as you claimed.

Its way too early to judge on that one. So what are your top ten rookies this year by the way?Thanks

No, he pretty much nailed it. Stewart isn't going to be a fullback.

Thanks Hoss, some just don't get it. A year doesn't mean anything.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Thanks Hoss, some just don't get it. A year doesn't mean anything.

I believe I was agreeing with him, not you, if you were the one who said Stewart would just be a fullback.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Only through three pages so far but has anyone mentioned Forte's fumbling rate?

 

[loose circuits]

ok, I just did a little research to compare Mendenhall to Forte:

looks like Mendy had 1/10th of a sec faster 40 and .5" more of vertical. Does this mean we shouldn't consider him having good pedigree either? Should I be trying to move him while he still has some value? Another stinker and they may consider him the next Curtis Enis

 

[EBF]

ok, I just did a little research to compare Mendenhall to Forte:looks like Mendy had 1/10th of a sec faster 40 and .5" more of vertical. Does this mean we shouldn't consider him having good pedigree either? Should I be trying to move him while he still has some value? Another stinker and they may consider him the next Curtis Enis

Mendenhall was a first round pick by a team with a phenomenal batting average. Almost every player Pittsburgh has picked in the first round in the past ten years has gone on to become a standout. You can't ask for a much better pedigree than that.I've never said that players with bad combine numbers can't be successful. Frank Gore and Michael Turner both had dismal combine numbers, but they're both great NFL players. The big difference between these guys and Forte is that they immediately dominated once they started getting a heavy dose of carries. Frank Gore averaged 5.4 YPC in his first season as a starter despite playing on a dismal 49ers team. Turner averaged 4.5 YPC last season on a team with a rookie QB. With those guys, it was obvious very early on that their mediocre pedigrees and athletic profiles weren't preventing them from being great players. With Forte, it isn't obvious. He had a poor YPC last season and was generally ineffective. If he had ripped it up like Gore or Turner then I'd be giving him credit for that performance (like I'm doing with Slaton) and I wouldn't have started this thread. What makes Forte especially scary as a top 10 pick is that he literally has none of the objective factors working in his favor. He wasn't a high pick. He isn't a great athlete. He didn't produce like a great player on the football field. That's three strikes and that's why he stands out to me as the most overrated player in the hobby right now.

 

[Eminence]

ok, I just did a little research to compare Mendenhall to Forte:looks like Mendy had 1/10th of a sec faster 40 and .5" more of vertical. Does this mean we shouldn't consider him having good pedigree either? Should I be trying to move him while he still has some value? Another stinker and they may consider him the next Curtis Enis

Mendenhall was a first round pick by a team with a phenomenal batting average. Almost every player Pittsburgh has picked in the first round in the past ten years has gone on to become a standout. You can't ask for a much better pedigree than that.I've never said that players with bad combine numbers can't be successful. Frank Gore and Michael Turner both had dismal combine numbers, but they're both great NFL players. The big difference between these guys and Forte is that they immediately dominated once they started getting a heavy dose of carries. Frank Gore averaged 5.4 YPC in his first season as a starter despite playing on a dismal 49ers team. Turner averaged 4.5 YPC last season on a team with a rookie QB. With those guys, it was obvious very early on that their mediocre pedigrees and athletic profiles weren't preventing them from being great players. With Forte, it isn't obvious. He had a poor YPC last season and was generally ineffective. If he had ripped it up like Gore or Turner then I'd be giving him credit for that performance (like I'm doing with Slaton) and I wouldn't have started this thread. What makes Forte especially scary as a top 10 pick is that he literally has none of the objective factors working in his favor. He wasn't a high pick. He isn't a great athlete. He didn't produce like a great player on the football field. That's three strikes and that's why he stands out to me as the most overrated player in the hobby right now.

You do realize Forte landed in almost the BEST spot for a Rookie RB? Chicago are going to feed the kid the rock. Even in a mediocre year he's a lock for 1,000+ Yards and about 5 TD. Throw in the fact he's a recieving threat and boom. ...nothing suggests that the Bears are going to stop giving him the ball anytime soon. Not to mention the Bears should be IMPROVING their offensive line in this upcoming draft.(Bears Homer)

 

[Chase Stuart]

Note: The below is pure statistical garbage because numbers don't mean anything and Bill Gates can't tell you which RB has the best vision and durability and therefore, which RB will turn into the next stud.

I compiled a dataset of rookie RBs in NFL history that were "productive" in their rookie seasons and then ran a regression based on draft status, rookie production and yards per carry as the input variables, with NFL career value as my output. Huh? Who cares.

Basically, over 0 is a pretty good year, 41 is what Ryan Grant was last year, 304 is what Matt Forte was last year, 699 is what Michael Turner was last year and 1300+ is what LT was in his best season.

For NFL draft value, I used the draft value chart.

The best fit regression formula was:

1245 + 0.86*draft value + 1.88*VALUE -23.9*YPC

With Matt Forte's rookie inputs of 460 for draft value, 304 for VALUE and 3.92 for YPC, we get a career value grade of 2118. What does *that* mean? That's exactly what Deuce McAllister's career value score is, and puts him in a tier with Terry Allen, Robert Smith, Floyd Little, Rodney Hampton, George Rogers, Warrick Dunn, James Brooks, James Wilder, Joe Morris, Garrison Hearst and Thomas Jones. I have no idea if that's "good" or "bad" based on what we know so far about Forte.

What I find interesting is the interaction among the variables. The #1 overall pick is worth 3000 points, so that's a draft value of 2580 right off the bat. So even after one year, being the a top five pick is worth a lot. Why? Because Tony Dorsett, Jamal Lewis, Marshall Faulk and LT were not ZOMG world beaters their rookie year but became future studs. They weren't bad, but they obviously got much, much better. Conversely, guys like Don Woods, Mike Anderson and Reuben Mayes were awesome as rookies, but were low draft picks that flamed out. So draft status is still pretty important after just one season.

That said, the other interesting thing is the YPC variable is negative. That doesn't mean YPC is meaningless, it just means that when you are using draft value and my RB value ranking as your inputs, bringing in YPC to the table doesn't add much. My RB value system ignores YPC but focuses on rushing yards, TDs, fumbles and receiving yards.

For example, LT and Curtis Martin had lackluster YPC as rookies. So did, to a lesser extent, Marshall Faulk, Eddie George, Billy Simms and Edgerrin James. Ickey Woods, Don Woods, Mike Anderson and Reggie Brooks had great YPC averages as rookies but didn't do much for their careers.

What's this all getting at? A RB who was a very high draft pick and had 1800 total yards and just a 3.6 YPC average after his rookie season would look like a future HOFer to me. Of the 12 or so most productive rookie RBs in history, the only two that flamed out were sixth round picks -- Anderson and Woods -- and they were the only picks after the third round of those twelve. Looking deeper, Olandis Gary and Mike Thomas would fit that as well, although so would TD.

It's impossible to find anyone that matches Forte's profile of 2nd round pick, great production, low YPC as a rookie. Eric Rhett, Curtis Martin, Anthony Thomas and Matt Snell come the closest, and they aren't all that close.

Of the most productive rookie RBs with a low YPC average, ignoring draft status, you get John Stephens, Curtis Martin, Marshall Faulk, Eddie George, Billy Sims, Olandis Gary and Edgerrin James. There's a lot of talent in that group, but all but two were first round picks.

Anyway, I've probably said a bunch of nothing here, and I doubt you're still reading, but my main takeaway is considering Forte's strong production (i.e., 3rd in the league in yards from scrimmage), his low YPC is meaningless and shouldn't turn you away; however, a red flag may be that low YPC average in conjunction with his non-high draft status. Only a few second round RBs have been very productive -- Portis, Ricky Watters, Ickey Woods, Corey Dillon -- and they all had huge YPC averages. A-Train would probably be the closest fit there, but his YPC average was better and his production was worse.

 

[Eminence]

Note: The below is pure statistical garbage because numbers don't mean anything and Bill Gates can't tell you which RB has the best vision and durability and therefore, which RB will turn into the next stud.

I compiled a dataset of rookie RBs in NFL history that were "productive" in their rookie seasons and then ran a regression based on draft status, rookie production and yards per carry as the input variables, with NFL career value as my output. Huh? Who cares.

Basically, over 0 is a pretty good year, 41 is what Ryan Grant was last year, 304 is what Matt Forte was last year, 699 is what Michael Turner was last year and 1300+ is what LT was in his best season.

For NFL draft value, I used the draft value chart.

The best fit regression formula was:

1245 + 0.86*draft value + 1.88*VALUE -23.9*YPC

With Matt Forte's rookie inputs of 460 for draft value, 304 for VALUE and 3.92 for YPC, we get a career value grade of 2118. What does *that* mean? That's exactly what Deuce McAllister's career value score is, and puts him in a tier with Terry Allen, Robert Smith, Floyd Little, Rodney Hampton, George Rogers, Warrick Dunn, James Brooks, James Wilder, Joe Morris, Garrison Hearst and Thomas Jones. I have no idea if that's "good" or "bad" based on what we know so far about Forte.

What I find interesting is the interaction among the variables. The #1 overall pick is worth 3000 points, so that's a draft value of 2580 right off the bat. So even after one year, being the a top five pick is worth a lot. Why? Because Tony Dorsett, Jamal Lewis, Marshall Faulk and LT were not ZOMG world beaters their rookie year but became future studs. They weren't bad, but they obviously got much, much better. Conversely, guys like Don Woods, Mike Anderson and Reuben Mayes were awesome as rookies, but were low draft picks that flamed out. So draft status is still pretty important after just one season.

That said, the other interesting thing is the YPC variable is negative. That doesn't mean YPC is meaningless, it just means that when you are using draft value and my RB value ranking as your inputs, bringing in YPC to the table doesn't add much. My RB value system ignores YPC but focuses on rushing yards, TDs, fumbles and receiving yards.

For example, LT and Curtis Martin had lackluster YPC as rookies. So did, to a lesser extent, Marshall Faulk, Eddie George, Billy Simms and Edgerrin James. Ickey Woods, Don Woods, Mike Anderson and Reggie Brooks had great YPC averages as rookies but didn't do much for their careers.

What's this all getting at? A RB who was a very high draft pick and had 1800 total yards and just a 3.6 YPC average after his rookie season would look like a future HOFer to me. Of the 12 or so most productive rookie RBs in history, the only two that flamed out were sixth round picks -- Anderson and Woods -- and they were the only picks after the third round of those twelve. Looking deeper, Olandis Gary and Mike Thomas would fit that as well, although so would TD.

It's impossible to find anyone that matches Forte's profile of 2nd round pick, great production, low YPC as a rookie. Eric Rhett, Curtis Martin, Anthony Thomas and Matt Snell come the closest, and they aren't all that close.

Of the most productive rookie RBs with a low YPC average, ignoring draft status, you get John Stephens, Curtis Martin, Marshall Faulk, Eddie George, Billy Sims, Olandis Gary and Edgerrin James. There's a lot of talent in that group, but all but two were first round picks.

Anyway, I've probably said a bunch of nothing here, and I doubt you're still reading, but my main takeaway is considering Forte's strong production (i.e., 3rd in the league in yards from scrimmage), his low YPC is meaningless and shouldn't turn you away; however, a red flag may be that low YPC average in conjunction with his non-high draft status. Only a few second round RBs have been very productive -- Portis, Ricky Watters, Ickey Woods, Corey Dillon -- and they all had huge YPC averages. A-Train would probably be the closest fit there, but his YPC average was better and his production was worse.

Formulas in football... really? Thought my eyes were the only "formula" I needed?

 

[EBF]

Thanks for posting that Chase. I knew you would bring something interesting to the table here.

I don't know what to make of all that info, but I definitely did notice that most of the current 2nd-4th round picks who eventually became stars had high YPC averages right away: Portis, Westbrook, MJD, and Gore. Curtis Martin might be the best case scenario for Forte. He wasn't a home run hitter, but he was a reliable workhorse who pieced together a great career.

For the record, my argument has never been that Forte is a total bust with a 100% probability of failing. I just think there's considerable risk of a Chris Brown/Joseph Addai/Julius Jones style regression to mediocrity. I wouldn't take him anywhere near his ADP because I think you'd be drafting him at his upside without factoring in that chance of regression.

 

[Burning Sensation]

ok, I just did a little research to compare Mendenhall to Forte:

looks like Mendy had 1/10th of a sec faster 40 and .5" more of vertical. Does this mean we shouldn't consider him having good pedigree either? Should I be trying to move him while he still has some value? Another stinker and they may consider him the next Curtis Enis

Mendenhall was a first round pick by a team with a phenomenal batting average. Almost every player Pittsburgh has picked in the first round in the past ten years has gone on to become a standout. You can't ask for a much better pedigree than that.I've never said that players with bad combine numbers can't be successful. Frank Gore and Michael Turner both had dismal combine numbers, but they're both great NFL players. The big difference between these guys and Forte is that they immediately dominated once they started getting a heavy dose of carries. Frank Gore averaged 5.4 YPC in his first season as a starter despite playing on a dismal 49ers team. Turner averaged 4.5 YPC last season on a team with a rookie QB.

With those guys, it was obvious very early on that their mediocre pedigrees and athletic profiles weren't preventing them from being great players. With Forte, it isn't obvious. He had a poor YPC last season and was generally ineffective. If he had ripped it up like Gore or Turner then I'd be giving him credit for that performance (like I'm doing with Slaton) and I wouldn't have started this thread.

What makes Forte especially scary as a top 10 pick is that he literally has none of the objective factors working in his favor. He wasn't a high pick. He isn't a great athlete. He didn't produce like a great player on the football field. That's three strikes and that's why he stands out to me as the most overrated player in the hobby right now.

I have to ask again, why dont you like Mcfadden?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Thanks for posting that Chase. I knew you would bring something interesting to the table here.I don't know what to make of all that info, but I definitely did notice that most of the current 2nd-4th round picks who eventually became stars had high YPC averages right away: Portis, Westbrook, MJD, and Gore. Curtis Martin might be the best case scenario for Forte. He wasn't a home run hitter, but he was a reliable workhorse who pieced together a great career. For the record, my argument has never been that Forte is a total bust with a 100% probability of failing. I just think there's considerable risk of a Chris Brown/Joseph Addai/Julius Jones style regression to mediocrity. I wouldn't take him anywhere near his ADP because I think you'd be drafting him at his upside without factoring in that chance of regression.

Even if Forte is an average talent in a good situation, isnt he still less of a risk than most of the RB's people will take in the mid-first to mid-2nd round?

 

[EBF]

ok, I just did a little research to compare Mendenhall to Forte:looks like Mendy had 1/10th of a sec faster 40 and .5" more of vertical. Does this mean we shouldn't consider him having good pedigree either? Should I be trying to move him while he still has some value? Another stinker and they may consider him the next Curtis Enis

Mendenhall was a first round pick by a team with a phenomenal batting average. Almost every player Pittsburgh has picked in the first round in the past ten years has gone on to become a standout. You can't ask for a much better pedigree than that.I've never said that players with bad combine numbers can't be successful. Frank Gore and Michael Turner both had dismal combine numbers, but they're both great NFL players. The big difference between these guys and Forte is that they immediately dominated once they started getting a heavy dose of carries. Frank Gore averaged 5.4 YPC in his first season as a starter despite playing on a dismal 49ers team. Turner averaged 4.5 YPC last season on a team with a rookie QB. With those guys, it was obvious very early on that their mediocre pedigrees and athletic profiles weren't preventing them from being great players. With Forte, it isn't obvious. He had a poor YPC last season and was generally ineffective. If he had ripped it up like Gore or Turner then I'd be giving him credit for that performance (like I'm doing with Slaton) and I wouldn't have started this thread. What makes Forte especially scary as a top 10 pick is that he literally has none of the objective factors working in his favor. He wasn't a high pick. He isn't a great athlete. He didn't produce like a great player on the football field. That's three strikes and that's why he stands out to me as the most overrated player in the hobby right now.

You do realize Forte landed in almost the BEST spot for a Rookie RB? Chicago are going to feed the kid the rock. Even in a mediocre year he's a lock for 1,000+ Yards and about 5 TD. Throw in the fact he's a recieving threat and boom. ...nothing suggests that the Bears are going to stop giving him the ball anytime soon. Not to mention the Bears should be IMPROVING their offensive line in this upcoming draft.(Bears Homer)

Isn't that what Joseph Addai owners thought last year?Sometimes it doesn't take much for a RB to slip down the depth chart. Julius Jones was all the rage after his flashy rookie season. Lo and behold Marion Barber slips to the 4th round, the Cowboys pick him, Jones has a sophomore slump, Barber asserts himself, and before you know it Julius is sent packing. This type of stuff happens all the time in the league. If you're not a great player, you're not going to keep your job for very long. I'm not saying Forte WILL lose his job soon, I'm just saying that it's a very realistic possibility. As of right now he doesn't look so special that he's guaranteed a workhorse role indefinitely like a young Portis or Edgerrin. That could change with a big year in 2009.

 

[identikit]

ok, I just did a little research to compare Mendenhall to Forte:

looks like Mendy had 1/10th of a sec faster 40 and .5" more of vertical. Does this mean we shouldn't consider him having good pedigree either? Should I be trying to move him while he still has some value? Another stinker and they may consider him the next Curtis Enis

Mendenhall was a first round pick by a team with a phenomenal batting average. Almost every player Pittsburgh has picked in the first round in the past ten years has gone on to become a standout. You can't ask for a much better pedigree than that.I've never said that players with bad combine numbers can't be successful. Frank Gore and Michael Turner both had dismal combine numbers, but they're both great NFL players. The big difference between these guys and Forte is that they immediately dominated once they started getting a heavy dose of carries. Frank Gore averaged 5.4 YPC in his first season as a starter despite playing on a dismal 49ers team. Turner averaged 4.5 YPC last season on a team with a rookie QB.

With those guys, it was obvious very early on that their mediocre pedigrees and athletic profiles weren't preventing them from being great players. With Forte, it isn't obvious. He had a poor YPC last season and was generally ineffective. If he had ripped it up like Gore or Turner then I'd be giving him credit for that performance (like I'm doing with Slaton) and I wouldn't have started this thread.

What makes Forte especially scary as a top 10 pick is that he literally has none of the objective factors working in his favor. He wasn't a high pick. He isn't a great athlete. He didn't produce like a great player on the football field. That's three strikes and that's why he stands out to me as the most overrated player in the hobby right now.

I have to ask again, why dont you like Mcfadden?

 

[EBF]

ok, I just did a little research to compare Mendenhall to Forte:

looks like Mendy had 1/10th of a sec faster 40 and .5" more of vertical. Does this mean we shouldn't consider him having good pedigree either? Should I be trying to move him while he still has some value? Another stinker and they may consider him the next Curtis Enis

Mendenhall was a first round pick by a team with a phenomenal batting average. Almost every player Pittsburgh has picked in the first round in the past ten years has gone on to become a standout. You can't ask for a much better pedigree than that.I've never said that players with bad combine numbers can't be successful. Frank Gore and Michael Turner both had dismal combine numbers, but they're both great NFL players. The big difference between these guys and Forte is that they immediately dominated once they started getting a heavy dose of carries. Frank Gore averaged 5.4 YPC in his first season as a starter despite playing on a dismal 49ers team. Turner averaged 4.5 YPC last season on a team with a rookie QB.

With those guys, it was obvious very early on that their mediocre pedigrees and athletic profiles weren't preventing them from being great players. With Forte, it isn't obvious. He had a poor YPC last season and was generally ineffective. If he had ripped it up like Gore or Turner then I'd be giving him credit for that performance (like I'm doing with Slaton) and I wouldn't have started this thread.

What makes Forte especially scary as a top 10 pick is that he literally has none of the objective factors working in his favor. He wasn't a high pick. He isn't a great athlete. He didn't produce like a great player on the football field. That's three strikes and that's why he stands out to me as the most overrated player in the hobby right now.

I have to ask again, why dont you like Mcfadden?

There are objective reasons to like him, but my subjective opinion has always been that he's not very good. The track record of top 10 picks with good combine numbers is probably excellent, so I'm knowingly playing against the odds in the case of DMC.I don't have any problem with someone liking Forte as long as they acknowledge that it's a leap of faith based on their subjective opinion of his abilities rather than on the objective factors. None of the objective factors say he's a guy you should burn a top 10 dynasty pick on.

 

[squistion]

I have to ask again, why dont you like Mcfadden?

There are objective reasons to like him, but my subjective opinion has always been that he's not very good. The track record of top 10 picks with good combine numbers is probably excellent, so I'm knowingly playing against the odds in the case of DMC.I don't have any problem with someone liking Forte as long as they acknowledge that it's a leap of faith based on their subjective opinion of his abilities rather than on the objective factors. None of the objective factors say he's a guy you should burn a top 10 dynasty pick on.

Glad to see your opinion of Forte was entirely objective.OK, so McFadden objectively looks good, but you don't subjectively like him so the combine numbers don't really count. Meanwhile, those of us who like Forte are being subjective, with the 1705 all purpose yards and the 12 TDs he scored irrelevant due to the low YPC and high number of carries. OK.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Thanks for posting that Chase. I knew you would bring something interesting to the table here.I don't know what to make of all that info, but I definitely did notice that most of the current 2nd-4th round picks who eventually became stars had high YPC averages right away: Portis, Westbrook, MJD, and Gore. Curtis Martin might be the best case scenario for Forte. He wasn't a home run hitter, but he was a reliable workhorse who pieced together a great career. For the record, my argument has never been that Forte is a total bust with a 100% probability of failing. I just think there's considerable risk of a Chris Brown/Joseph Addai/Julius Jones style regression to mediocrity. I wouldn't take him anywhere near his ADP because I think you'd be drafting him at his upside without factoring in that chance of regression.

No problem, EBF. BTW, I agree with you about the broad jump being an important metric and showing a meaningful difference between Lynch and Forte.As for Westbrook, he had a 4.2 YPC average his rookie year but without many carries. Feel free to add Thurman Thomas, Tiki Barber, Roger Craig, Charlie Garner, James Wilder, Joe Morris, Jim Nance, Pete Johnson, Joe Cribbs, Travis Henry, Christian Okoye and Natrone Means as RBs with 100+ carries and a sub-4.25 YPC average.Anyway, this is part of a bigger study I've got where I explain why I think YPC is overrated.

 

[corpcow]

Amen. I'm a little late to this thread, but I've been saying this for awhile.

Forte was 4th in the league in rushing attemps (316) and was one of the only top 10 RBs who averaged less than 4 YPC (3.9 YPC). Turner had 4.5, ADP had 4.85, Portis had 4.3, DeAngelo had 5.5, TJones was 4.5, Slaton was 4.8, Chris Johnson was 4.9). His numbers were also helped because he led all RBs with 63 catches at 7.5 YPC (good, but nothing spectacular). He only broke 100 yards 3 times all season, and that was against Detroit, the Rams, and Indy.

No RB touched the ball more this year, and his top 5 finish may have more been a matter of circumstance and opportunity than anything else. If he only gets 250 carries next year, you're talking about a guy that isn't even going to break 1k rushing yards at that rate.

Yes, he gets some credit for holding up under the weight of that load. (Then again, he averaged just 3.3 YPC over the last 4 games of the season). And yes, if he had a better offensive line and better receivers his YPC may go up somewhat... but how much?

It all comes back to this: if his numbers come from having the bulk of the offense run through him because he's the most talented player on that offense, and they bring in additional guys to share the load, then his numbers are likely going to suffer.

In fantasy, there's opportunity and there's talent. I'm not suggestion that Forte is not talented at all, but his numbers reflect more of a special opportunity than a special talent. The balance in FF is trying to find the right mix of talent and opportunity

 

[gianmarco]

In fantasy, there's opportunity and there's talent. I'm not suggestion that Forte is not talented at all, but his numbers reflect more of a special opportunity than a special talent.



The balance in FF is trying to find the right mix of talent and opportunity

This should be everyone's goal. Amazingly well put.

 

[Chase Stuart]

- He didn't have a great rookie year

WTF?

The fact that people find that statement shocking just demonstrates the degree to which a fantasy football lens colors one's perception of NFL performance. After Ben Roethlisberger's impressive rookie season, virtually no one had him ranked as a top 10 dynasty QB. People looked at his paltry yardage/TD totals and concluded that he wasn't a good fantasy prospect. I argued otherwise because I looked at his per-throw averages and realized that he was capable of putting up nice stats if his number of pass attempts increased. A couple years later that's exactly what happened. Ben still isn't an elite FF option, but he was a great investment if you bought him back then when no one thought he could be a FF starter. This reminds me of that situation because, once again, people are only looking at the yardage/TD totals without looking at HOW the player arrived at those totals. Forte finished third among NFL RBs in total yards, but of the 24 RBs with 200+ carries last season, only 5 had a lower YPC average. He ranked among the bottom half of NFL starters in YPC. So while his end of season yardage totals make it look like he had a great season, the reality is that he was a mediocre performer who benefited from a huge number of touches. It's easy to cite the poor supporting cast, but as I mentioned earlier in this thread, Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson averaged 4.1 and 3.8 YPC in their Chicago careers respectively. If Forte is significantly better than those guys, it doesn't show in his statistics.

Bad comparison. Allow me to make some gross generalizations. When you’re a good passing team (measured by ANY/A), you probably won’t need to pass that often. You’ll score points and you’ll be winning, so you’ll stop throwing. If you’re a bad passing team, you’ll throw some INTs, have a bunch of three and outs, and are likely to have to pass a bunch in the fourth quarter. That’s exactly why raw passing yards is a bad way to measure passing production — bad passing teams are likely to have a bunch of passing yards late in the game and good passing teams aren’t going to accumulate many passing yards at the ends of games. That means passing yards doesn’t accurately measure passing ability, since it penalizes good passing teams and helps bad passing teams. The opposite happens with rushing. If you’re a great rushing team, you’ll keep rushing. If you’re a bad rushing team, you’ll stop rushing. So raw rushing yards is a fine way to measure rushing.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Talking about where a guy was drafted after his rookie year is utterly moronic.

Steve Young was the #1 pick and a highly touted prospect; he was horrible his rookie year. I don't think it would have been moronic to still be high on him after that.

 

[Chase Stuart]

With Forte, it isn't obvious. He had a poor YPC last season and was generally ineffective.

He was in the top five of the league in rushing first downs. That's pretty effective of him.

 

[Biabreakable]

I have always disliked when people take a positive.. a player getting above average level of action/touches and try to twist it into a negative (said player had too much action thus regression to the mean).

Last year pre-draft I liked Forte but thought he had limitations. After seeing him play I saw a very tough RB able to run inside and out, able to make people miss or fight for extra yardage and this guy has great hands. In a thread discussing player comparisons for Forte, Marcus Allen seemed the closest in my eyes. Watching him play against the Vikings ( a very good run defense) he played like a veteran not a rookie. He took what the D would give him and he did more with it than just about any other RB I have seen do against that defense over the past 3 years.

While one can argue for regression to the mean in regards to Forte's workload I think one needs consider that if the Bears offense improves (it would be hard for it not to) that will give Forte more scoring opportunities and more plays on offense in general. So the loss in total touches (if there is a decline) would be offset by likely higher YPC and end up a wash.

I think Forte has more talent than some people are giving him credit for in this thread. And he is one of the few 3 down RBs in the league that is likely to continue to get 50+ catches a season. That bodes well for his fantasy potential and longevity imho and thus he deserves to be ranked highly in dynasty leagues. Especially ones that give PPR to RBs.

I don't get the Addai compare at all. Never considered Addai a workhorse. Forte has already proven he can be one.

Personaly I would rather have a well rounded player like Forte who is going to get a high level of action as long as he is healthy than a player who may be better than Forte in one area of thier game but will likely always be used in more of a commitee situation (and thus never get the touches).

Toughness is really the only question as the bottom line for a RB with high touches. I am not aware of Forte having any serious injury issues or issues playing through minor dings and bruises. One season isn't enough to judge him on but I like what he has shown so far enough that I think he is worth the risk.

If the Bears do not address their Oline would be my biggest concern for Forte moving Forward. Nothing else about him and his situation concerns me. Especially not him having the 4th most touches out of all RBs last year.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Only through three pages so far but has anyone mentioned Forte's fumbling rate?

No one bit on t his, but I think it explains some of Forte's low YPC average. He had just one fumble in 316 carries and 63 receptions. That's phenomenal. Adrian Peterson had 9 fumbles on 363 carries and 21 receptions -- that's terrible. But there's a negative correlation between fumbling and yards per carry -- RBs often fumble when they're going for the extra yard(s). Now if they gain an extra yard 100 times, then maybe one or two or three fumbles is worth it. But you should look at the fumble rate in conjunction with the YPC rate.It's just like airplanes.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I have always disliked when people take a positive.. a player getting above average level of action/touches and try to twist it into a negative (said player had too much action thus regression to the mean).Last year pre-draft I liked Forte but thought he had limitations. After seeing him play I saw a very tough RB able to run inside and out, able to make people miss or fight for extra yardage and this guy has great hands. In a thread discussing player comparisons for Forte, Marcus Allen seemed the closest in my eyes. Watching him play against the Vikings ( a very good run defense) he played like a veteran not a rookie. He took what the D would give him and he did more with it than just about any other RB I have seen do against that defense over the past 3 years. While one can argue for regression to the mean in regards to Forte's workload I think one needs consider that if the Bears offense improves (it would be hard for it not to) that will give Forte more scoring opportunities and more plays on offense in general. So the loss in total touches (if there is a decline) would be offset by likely higher YPC and end up a wash.I think Forte has more talent than some people are giving him credit for in this thread. And he is one of the few 3 down RBs in the league that is likely to continue to get 50+ catches a season. That bodes well for his fantasy potential and longevity imho and thus he deserves to be ranked highly in dynasty leagues. Especially ones that give PPR to RBs.I don't get the Addai compare at all. Never considered Addai a workhorse. Forte has already proven he can be one.Personaly I would rather have a well rounded player like Forte who is going to get a high level of action as long as he is healthy than a player who may be better than Forte in one area of thier game but will likely always be used in more of a commitee situation (and thus never get the touches).Toughness is really the only question as the bottom line for a RB with high touches. I am not aware of Forte having any serious injury issues or issues playing through minor dings and bruises. One season isn't enough to judge him on but I like what he has shown so far enough that I think he is worth the risk.If the Bears do not address their Oline would be my biggest concern for Forte moving Forward. Nothing else about him and his situation concerns me. Especially not him having the 4th most touches out of all RBs last year.

Regression to the mean is a real concept that doesn't exist just in mathematics but in the world every day.Forte losing touches isn't an example of regression to the mean, though. Forte improving his YPC average just might be.

 

[Scooby]

To me, he reminds me of Eddie George, taller runner, and just a steady performer.

 

[kremenull]

One of the most far "off-base" posts I've seen in a while. Forte is not special in the sense of "wowing" you with his athletic ability, but he is special in his subtle brilliance that made him proficient in an offense that was essentially putrid. Lack of any viable and consistent playmakers on his offense, Forte was a marked man all season. His superb vision and cutback ability allowed him to turn 2-3 yd gains into 5-6 yd gains behind a subpar o-line. Going forward, once the Bears add at least some decent playmakers and upgrade the offensive line to at least respectability, Forte's yards per touch, which you are basing your argument on, will undoubtedly increase, IMO, as more space will be created for him to operate.

I think you (EBF) offer some pretty good analysis for the most part in many of your posts, but here your reasoning is a bit short-sighted. A guy like Thurman Thomas, Emmitt Smith, and Priest Holmes never wowed people with their athleticism either, but they sure as hell had (multiple) great years during their NFL careers, fantasy-wise as well as NFL standards.....I certainly see the same with Forte.

 

[Football Jones]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I believe it's surprising more people don't like Forte. The YPC argument is bordering on ridiculous, IMO. Take a look at the RBs who were mentioned that had a better YPC (the other top RBs). Now take a look at what Forte had to work with (both his poor OL & fellow skill players). Most of the other RBs had vastly superior help.

Instead of worrying if Forte will somehow magically lose the special skills he has, I'd be concerned with looking at his upside when he actually gets some help, LOL. If you want a good YPC...believe me...it's coming.

That said, the main thing is I don't understand why his detractors aren't seeing what I'm seeing on the field. His burst (especially good for a tall RB), his extremely loose hips (which helps a RB make sharper cuts at a higher rate of speed), his vision, his pass-catching ability (already one of the best receiving backs in the league), & his blocking (especially good for a young RB). I'm really at a loss to explain how anyone who watched him last year isn't absolutely giddy at his potential as it relates to FF (especially in PPR leagues). I don't get it.

 

[Tybeeman]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I believe it's surprising more people don't like Forte. The YPC argument is bordering on ridiculous, IMO. Take a look at the RBs who were mentioned that had a better YPC (the other top RBs). Now take a look at what Forte had to work with (both his poor OL & fellow skill players). Most of the other RBs had vastly superior help.Instead of worrying if Forte will somehow magically lose the special skills he has, I'd be concerned with looking at his upside when he actually gets some help, LOL. If you want a good YPC...believe me...it's coming.That said, the main thing is I don't understand why his detractors aren't seeing what I'm seeing on the field. His burst (especially good for a tall RB), his extremely loose hips (which helps a RB make sharper cuts at a higher rate of speed), his vision, his pass-catching ability, & his blocking (especially good for a young RB). I'm really at a loss to explain how anyone who watched him last year isn't absolutely giddy at his potential. I don't get it.

 

[treat88]

I'm really at a loss to explain how anyone who watched him last year isn't absolutely giddy at his potential. I don't get it.

I can certainly see how folks would be excited.It's still not unreasonable to rank him outside of the top 10 FF players, which was the initial premise.Personally, I think he is far more Joseph Addai than LT. Even having said that I would put him in the top 15-20 players in dynasty.

 

[Biabreakable]

I have always disliked when people take a positive.. a player getting above average level of action/touches and try to twist it into a negative (said player had too much action thus regression to the mean).Last year pre-draft I liked Forte but thought he had limitations. After seeing him play I saw a very tough RB able to run inside and out, able to make people miss or fight for extra yardage and this guy has great hands. In a thread discussing player comparisons for Forte, Marcus Allen seemed the closest in my eyes. Watching him play against the Vikings ( a very good run defense) he played like a veteran not a rookie. He took what the D would give him and he did more with it than just about any other RB I have seen do against that defense over the past 3 years. While one can argue for regression to the mean in regards to Forte's workload I think one needs consider that if the Bears offense improves (it would be hard for it not to) that will give Forte more scoring opportunities and more plays on offense in general. So the loss in total touches (if there is a decline) would be offset by likely higher YPC and end up a wash.I think Forte has more talent than some people are giving him credit for in this thread. And he is one of the few 3 down RBs in the league that is likely to continue to get 50+ catches a season. That bodes well for his fantasy potential and longevity imho and thus he deserves to be ranked highly in dynasty leagues. Especially ones that give PPR to RBs.I don't get the Addai compare at all. Never considered Addai a workhorse. Forte has already proven he can be one.Personaly I would rather have a well rounded player like Forte who is going to get a high level of action as long as he is healthy than a player who may be better than Forte in one area of thier game but will likely always be used in more of a commitee situation (and thus never get the touches).Toughness is really the only question as the bottom line for a RB with high touches. I am not aware of Forte having any serious injury issues or issues playing through minor dings and bruises. One season isn't enough to judge him on but I like what he has shown so far enough that I think he is worth the risk.If the Bears do not address their Oline would be my biggest concern for Forte moving Forward. Nothing else about him and his situation concerns me. Especially not him having the 4th most touches out of all RBs last year.

Regression to the mean is a real concept that doesn't exist just in mathematics but in the world every day.Forte losing touches isn't an example of regression to the mean, though. Forte improving his YPC average just might be.

I am not disputing regression to the mean at all. I am disputing that player X must have less FF potential in year N+1 just because they have above average carries in the previous season.We seem to be in agreement that the YPC might improve (as the team does). I do not expect Forte to catch 60 balls/year moving forward, that is a lot of catches for a RB, but I think he has shown enough proficiency that I would expect him to average something like 50 catches/year as I do not see Forte being phased out of the passing game that much even as other options for the Bears improve (they must). And again if the Bears offense improves then that would be more total offensive plays and I think will work out to close to a wash in terms of total touches for Forte.The Bears Oline does concern me.I do not own Forte. Wish I did.

 

[identikit]

I have always disliked when people take a positive.. a player getting above average level of action/touches and try to twist it into a negative (said player had too much action thus regression to the mean).

Last year pre-draft I liked Forte but thought he had limitations. After seeing him play I saw a very tough RB able to run inside and out, able to make people miss or fight for extra yardage and this guy has great hands. In a thread discussing player comparisons for Forte, Marcus Allen seemed the closest in my eyes. Watching him play against the Vikings ( a very good run defense) he played like a veteran not a rookie. He took what the D would give him and he did more with it than just about any other RB I have seen do against that defense over the past 3 years.

While one can argue for regression to the mean in regards to Forte's workload I think one needs consider that if the Bears offense improves (it would be hard for it not to) that will give Forte more scoring opportunities and more plays on offense in general. So the loss in total touches (if there is a decline) would be offset by likely higher YPC and end up a wash.

I think Forte has more talent than some people are giving him credit for in this thread. And he is one of the few 3 down RBs in the league that is likely to continue to get 50+ catches a season. That bodes well for his fantasy potential and longevity imho and thus he deserves to be ranked highly in dynasty leagues. Especially ones that give PPR to RBs.

I don't get the Addai compare at all. Never considered Addai a workhorse. Forte has already proven he can be one.

Personaly I would rather have a well rounded player like Forte who is going to get a high level of action as long as he is healthy than a player who may be better than Forte in one area of thier game but will likely always be used in more of a commitee situation (and thus never get the touches).

Toughness is really the only question as the bottom line for a RB with high touches. I am not aware of Forte having any serious injury issues or issues playing through minor dings and bruises. One season isn't enough to judge him on but I like what he has shown so far enough that I think he is worth the risk.

If the Bears do not address their Oline would be my biggest concern for Forte moving Forward. Nothing else about him and his situation concerns me. Especially not him having the 4th most touches out of all RBs last year.

Regression to the mean is a real concept that doesn't exist just in mathematics but in the world every day.Forte losing touches isn't an example of regression to the mean, though. Forte improving his YPC average just might be.

I am not disputing regression to the mean at all. I am disputing that player X must have less FF potential in year N+1 just because they have above average carries in the previous season.We seem to be in agreement that the YPC might improve (as the team does). I do not expect Forte to catch 60 balls/year moving forward, that is a lot of catches for a RB, but I think he has shown enough proficiency that I would expect him to average something like 50 catches/year as I do not see Forte being phased out of the passing game that much even as other options for the Bears improve (they must). And again if the Bears offense improves then that would be more total offensive plays and I think will work out to close to a wash in terms of total touches for Forte.

The Bears Oline does concern me.

I do not own Forte. Wish I did.

Not to mention if the Bears offense improves, it should mean more GL opps for Forte. One-yard TD's do wonders (FF-wise) to help offset a (theoretical) lower amount of touches.

 

[Christo]

I have always disliked when people take a positive.. a player getting above average level of action/touches and try to twist it into a negative (said player had too much action thus regression to the mean).Last year pre-draft I liked Forte but thought he had limitations. After seeing him play I saw a very tough RB able to run inside and out, able to make people miss or fight for extra yardage and this guy has great hands. In a thread discussing player comparisons for Forte, Marcus Allen seemed the closest in my eyes. Watching him play against the Vikings ( a very good run defense) he played like a veteran not a rookie. He took what the D would give him and he did more with it than just about any other RB I have seen do against that defense over the past 3 years. While one can argue for regression to the mean in regards to Forte's workload I think one needs consider that if the Bears offense improves (it would be hard for it not to) that will give Forte more scoring opportunities and more plays on offense in general. So the loss in total touches (if there is a decline) would be offset by likely higher YPC and end up a wash.I think Forte has more talent than some people are giving him credit for in this thread. And he is one of the few 3 down RBs in the league that is likely to continue to get 50+ catches a season. That bodes well for his fantasy potential and longevity imho and thus he deserves to be ranked highly in dynasty leagues. Especially ones that give PPR to RBs.I don't get the Addai compare at all. Never considered Addai a workhorse. Forte has already proven he can be one.Personaly I would rather have a well rounded player like Forte who is going to get a high level of action as long as he is healthy than a player who may be better than Forte in one area of thier game but will likely always be used in more of a commitee situation (and thus never get the touches).Toughness is really the only question as the bottom line for a RB with high touches. I am not aware of Forte having any serious injury issues or issues playing through minor dings and bruises. One season isn't enough to judge him on but I like what he has shown so far enough that I think he is worth the risk.If the Bears do not address their Oline would be my biggest concern for Forte moving Forward. Nothing else about him and his situation concerns me. Especially not him having the 4th most touches out of all RBs last year.

Regression to the mean is a real concept that doesn't exist just in mathematics but in the world every day.Forte losing touches isn't an example of regression to the mean, though. Forte improving his YPC average just might be.

The rarely invoked progression to the mean.

 

[Biabreakable]

I have always disliked when people take a positive.. a player getting above average level of action/touches and try to twist it into a negative (said player had too much action thus regression to the mean).Last year pre-draft I liked Forte but thought he had limitations. After seeing him play I saw a very tough RB able to run inside and out, able to make people miss or fight for extra yardage and this guy has great hands. In a thread discussing player comparisons for Forte, Marcus Allen seemed the closest in my eyes. Watching him play against the Vikings ( a very good run defense) he played like a veteran not a rookie. He took what the D would give him and he did more with it than just about any other RB I have seen do against that defense over the past 3 years. While one can argue for regression to the mean in regards to Forte's workload I think one needs consider that if the Bears offense improves (it would be hard for it not to) that will give Forte more scoring opportunities and more plays on offense in general. So the loss in total touches (if there is a decline) would be offset by likely higher YPC and end up a wash.I think Forte has more talent than some people are giving him credit for in this thread. And he is one of the few 3 down RBs in the league that is likely to continue to get 50+ catches a season. That bodes well for his fantasy potential and longevity imho and thus he deserves to be ranked highly in dynasty leagues. Especially ones that give PPR to RBs.I don't get the Addai compare at all. Never considered Addai a workhorse. Forte has already proven he can be one.Personaly I would rather have a well rounded player like Forte who is going to get a high level of action as long as he is healthy than a player who may be better than Forte in one area of thier game but will likely always be used in more of a commitee situation (and thus never get the touches).Toughness is really the only question as the bottom line for a RB with high touches. I am not aware of Forte having any serious injury issues or issues playing through minor dings and bruises. One season isn't enough to judge him on but I like what he has shown so far enough that I think he is worth the risk.If the Bears do not address their Oline would be my biggest concern for Forte moving Forward. Nothing else about him and his situation concerns me. Especially not him having the 4th most touches out of all RBs last year.

Regression to the mean is a real concept that doesn't exist just in mathematics but in the world every day.Forte losing touches isn't an example of regression to the mean, though. Forte improving his YPC average just might be.

The rarely invoked progression to the mean.

We need more references to this.My projections almost always tend to be far too conservative because of overuse of the former and not enough of the latter.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I have always disliked when people take a positive.. a player getting above average level of action/touches and try to twist it into a negative (said player had too much action thus regression to the mean).Last year pre-draft I liked Forte but thought he had limitations. After seeing him play I saw a very tough RB able to run inside and out, able to make people miss or fight for extra yardage and this guy has great hands. In a thread discussing player comparisons for Forte, Marcus Allen seemed the closest in my eyes. Watching him play against the Vikings ( a very good run defense) he played like a veteran not a rookie. He took what the D would give him and he did more with it than just about any other RB I have seen do against that defense over the past 3 years. While one can argue for regression to the mean in regards to Forte's workload I think one needs consider that if the Bears offense improves (it would be hard for it not to) that will give Forte more scoring opportunities and more plays on offense in general. So the loss in total touches (if there is a decline) would be offset by likely higher YPC and end up a wash.I think Forte has more talent than some people are giving him credit for in this thread. And he is one of the few 3 down RBs in the league that is likely to continue to get 50+ catches a season. That bodes well for his fantasy potential and longevity imho and thus he deserves to be ranked highly in dynasty leagues. Especially ones that give PPR to RBs.I don't get the Addai compare at all. Never considered Addai a workhorse. Forte has already proven he can be one.Personaly I would rather have a well rounded player like Forte who is going to get a high level of action as long as he is healthy than a player who may be better than Forte in one area of thier game but will likely always be used in more of a commitee situation (and thus never get the touches).Toughness is really the only question as the bottom line for a RB with high touches. I am not aware of Forte having any serious injury issues or issues playing through minor dings and bruises. One season isn't enough to judge him on but I like what he has shown so far enough that I think he is worth the risk.If the Bears do not address their Oline would be my biggest concern for Forte moving Forward. Nothing else about him and his situation concerns me. Especially not him having the 4th most touches out of all RBs last year.

Regression to the mean is a real concept that doesn't exist just in mathematics but in the world every day.Forte losing touches isn't an example of regression to the mean, though. Forte improving his YPC average just might be.

The rarely invoked progression to the mean.

We need more references to this.My projections almost always tend to be far too conservative because of overuse of the former and not enough of the latter.

A lot of people invoked it when discussing Thomas Jones' TD potential last season. He wasn't going to get just one rushing TD again.

 

[loose circuits]

so who thinks Forte will have more than 12 total TD's this year?

 

[AnonymousBob]

So based on his combine, ypc, and draft position, we are supposed to downgrade him?

It seems rather logical to me. There is no question EBF wanted to catch people's attention and calling Forte THE most overrated player has caused more of a fight than his reasoning should have.Look at a player like Frank Gore - he did not play on a good team nor did he have a good o-line. Yet he averaged 4.8 in his first season splitting time with Barlow. In his first full season (2006), he averaged 5.4...the Niners were not a good team that year nor was their o-line anything special. In fact their entire offense was fairly lousy. I do think Forte should be ranked in the top ten rb's going forward - but that's not so much because he's clearly a stud as much as there isn't anybody else who deserves the spot. There are a handful of rb's I'd love to have on my team - Forte isn't a guy I'll go out of my way to acquire. If he ends up on my team then so be as I have little doubt he'll be serviceable for awhile longer. I just don't see the upside with Forte. Let's say you draft him as the #5 rb...how many of you think he has a reasonable shot of finishing higher than that? I think that's his absolute ceiling and I view it unlikely he'll hit that mark. So you draft a guy who's absolute upside is where he's being drafted? That's absolutely horrible value. At least with a guy like SJax or ADP being drafted that high they've shown they're capable of putting up monster games. I think some people put too much stock in where a player was drafted but let's not kid ourselves - there IS a reason players are drafted where they're drafted. No method is foolproof but we shouldn't take the exceptions to the rule like Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, Rod Smith, Curtis Martin and toss those names about to prove that where a guy was drafted is meaningless. Does anybody think Reggie Bush would still be getting the ball force fed to him had he been a later round pick? He sure as heck hasn't blown away everybody on the football field yet because he was such a high pick he's going to get more rope before NO phases him out. A second round pick who looked good (but not special in any measureable statistic) isn't exactly an irreplaceable cog in the Chicago machine.And finally, I think many (if not all) would agree a huge part of a player's value (especially rb's) stem from their situations. What is so appealing about Forte's situation? Are the Bears a young team? Do they have a good offensive line? Other quality offensive weapons to take attention away from Forte? A qb who can march this team up and down the field in the blink of an eye while setting him up for gimmie td plunges? He doesn't break long runs, the offense is putrid, the offensive line is even worse...and his appeal is what exactly?

 

[AnonymousBob]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I believe it's surprising more people don't like Forte. The YPC argument is bordering on ridiculous, IMO. Take a look at the RBs who were mentioned that had a better YPC (the other top RBs). Now take a look at what Forte had to work with (both his poor OL & fellow skill players). Most of the other RBs had vastly superior help.

Instead of worrying if Forte will somehow magically lose the special skills he has, I'd be concerned with looking at his upside when he actually gets some help, LOL. If you want a good YPC...believe me...it's coming.

That said, the main thing is I don't understand why his detractors aren't seeing what I'm seeing on the field. His burst (especially good for a tall RB), his extremely loose hips (which helps a RB make sharper cuts at a higher rate of speed), his vision, his pass-catching ability (already one of the best receiving backs in the league), & his blocking (especially good for a young RB). I'm really at a loss to explain how anyone who watched him last year isn't absolutely giddy at his potential as it relates to FF (especially in PPR leagues). I don't get it.

What special skills might those be? As Chase pointed out, his fumbling rate was incredible. Was else was so special? His ability to not get hurt after handling the ball more than any other rb last year? I generally believe injuries are luck more than anything else but if you want to say he's durable I have nothing to argue against you. His yards per catch and carry were far from special. People keep saying when the Bears get him some help he'll be so much better...but what makes everyone so sure the Bears WILL get him some help? They are an aging team with lots of holes to fill on both sides of the ball. They have so many holes I can't envision help coming to him anytime soon. Who are the wr's? Hester? Is Early a bust? The drafting of Chris Williams last year was a mistake and they haven't shown to be great when it comes to drafting offensive talent. I just do not understand people assuming help will come to this guy so quickly and easily.

So in order to meet his adp, the team has to improve on their offense, he has to again lead all rb's in touches, and/or he has to start doing a lot more with each touch.

I don't see this offense improving much, if at all. I refuse to expect him to improve much if the offensive pieces around him do not improve. So we have to count on him getting loads and loads of touches.

 

[loose circuits]

So based on his combine, ypc, and draft position, we are supposed to downgrade him?

It seems rather logical to me. There is no question EBF wanted to catch people's attention and calling Forte THE most overrated player has caused more of a fight than his reasoning should have.Look at a player like Frank Gore - he did not play on a good team nor did he have a good o-line. Yet he averaged 4.8 in his first season splitting time with Barlow. In his first full season (2006), he averaged 5.4...the Niners were not a good team that year nor was their o-line anything special. In fact their entire offense was fairly lousy. I do think Forte should be ranked in the top ten rb's going forward - but that's not so much because he's clearly a stud as much as there isn't anybody else who deserves the spot. There are a handful of rb's I'd love to have on my team - Forte isn't a guy I'll go out of my way to acquire. If he ends up on my team then so be as I have little doubt he'll be serviceable for awhile longer. I just don't see the upside with Forte. Let's say you draft him as the #5 rb...how many of you think he has a reasonable shot of finishing higher than that? I think that's his absolute ceiling and I view it unlikely he'll hit that mark. So you draft a guy who's absolute upside is where he's being drafted? That's absolutely horrible value. At least with a guy like SJax or ADP being drafted that high they've shown they're capable of putting up monster games. I think some people put too much stock in where a player was drafted but let's not kid ourselves - there IS a reason players are drafted where they're drafted. No method is foolproof but we shouldn't take the exceptions to the rule like Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, Rod Smith, Curtis Martin and toss those names about to prove that where a guy was drafted is meaningless. Does anybody think Reggie Bush would still be getting the ball force fed to him had he been a later round pick? He sure as heck hasn't blown away everybody on the football field yet because he was such a high pick he's going to get more rope before NO phases him out. A second round pick who looked good (but not special in any measureable statistic) isn't exactly an irreplaceable cog in the Chicago machine.And finally, I think many (if not all) would agree a huge part of a player's value (especially rb's) stem from their situations. What is so appealing about Forte's situation? Are the Bears a young team? Do they have a good offensive line? Other quality offensive weapons to take attention away from Forte? A qb who can march this team up and down the field in the blink of an eye while setting him up for gimmie td plunges? He doesn't break long runs, the offense is putrid, the offensive line is even worse...and his appeal is what exactly?

Frank Gore is not a fair comparison. It is much easier to have a high ypc when your carries are limitedHis appeal is that he's already shown he could get it done with no offense around him. If the Bears put together an offense, his numbers can improve- TD's, YPC, etc... You say You mention SJax. Who has the lower floor? SJax hasn't been able to stay healthy. No reason to think that's going to start now. It's been that way since college. Not like he has no question marks on his resume either. I'd take Forte's durability over SJax's upside. Especially considering the Rams offense is completely rebuilding. While signing Brown is a step in the right direction, they still have some huge holes to fill at WR and other spots along the OL. Furthermore, the past 2 seasons he's averaged barely 4.2 and 4.1 ypc respectively with a far lesser workload than Forte had. Is that .3 and .2 ypc that big of difference when you consider the injury history?you also mention exceptions to the rule. Has any rookie RB ever had as successful season as Forte had fantasy wise? Shouldn't we consider that he could be one of those exceptions especially considering he did it with no supporting cast. Reggie Bush is irrelevant. Has nothing to do with anything...

 

[Football Jones]

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I believe it's surprising more people don't like Forte. The YPC argument is bordering on ridiculous, IMO. Take a look at the RBs who were mentioned that had a better YPC (the other top RBs). Now take a look at what Forte had to work with (both his poor OL & fellow skill players). Most of the other RBs had vastly superior help.

Instead of worrying if Forte will somehow magically lose the special skills he has, I'd be concerned with looking at his upside when he actually gets some help, LOL. If you want a good YPC...believe me...it's coming.

That said, the main thing is I don't understand why his detractors aren't seeing what I'm seeing on the field. His burst (especially good for a tall RB), his extremely loose hips (which helps a RB make sharper cuts at a higher rate of speed), his vision, his pass-catching ability (already one of the best receiving backs in the league), & his blocking (especially good for a young RB). I'm really at a loss to explain how anyone who watched him last year isn't absolutely giddy at his potential as it relates to FF (especially in PPR leagues). I don't get it.

What special skills might those be? As Chase pointed out, his fumbling rate was incredible. Was else was so special? His ability to not get hurt after handling the ball more than any other rb last year? I generally believe injuries are luck more than anything else but if you want to say he's durable I have nothing to argue against you. His yards per catch and carry were far from special. People keep saying when the Bears get him some help he'll be so much better...but what makes everyone so sure the Bears WILL get him some help? They are an aging team with lots of holes to fill on both sides of the ball. They have so many holes I can't envision help coming to him anytime soon. Who are the wr's? Hester? Is Early a bust? The drafting of Chris Williams last year was a mistake and they haven't shown to be great when it comes to drafting offensive talent. I just do not understand people assuming help will come to this guy so quickly and easily.

So in order to meet his adp, the team has to improve on their offense, he has to again lead all rb's in touches, and/or he has to start doing a lot more with each touch.

I don't see this offense improving much, if at all. I refuse to expect him to improve much if the offensive pieces around him do not improve. So we have to count on him getting loads and loads of touches.

The thing some people don't realize is even if Forte's surrounding cast doesn't improve, he's still a top RB (he's proven he can excel status quo). The exciting thing is their offense will certainly improve over time. As you can imagine, I'm sure it's a priority for the Bears.I mentioned his special skills in my previous post. This is pretty simple actually. If you watched Forte extensively last year & didn't come away nothing less than thrilled about his potential, you're not seeing what I'm seeing. Period.

This thread has certainly run its course, tho. I don't see anything else either side can add. This argument will be settled on the field.

 

[awesomeness]

So based on his combine, ypc, and draft position, we are supposed to downgrade him?

It seems rather logical to me. There is no question EBF wanted to catch people's attention and calling Forte THE most overrated player has caused more of a fight than his reasoning should have.Look at a player like Frank Gore - he did not play on a good team nor did he have a good o-line. Yet he averaged 4.8 in his first season splitting time with Barlow. In his first full season (2006), he averaged 5.4...the Niners were not a good team that year nor was their o-line anything special. In fact their entire offense was fairly lousy.

I do think Forte should be ranked in the top ten rb's going forward - but that's not so much because he's clearly a stud as much as there isn't anybody else who deserves the spot. There are a handful of rb's I'd love to have on my team - Forte isn't a guy I'll go out of my way to acquire. If he ends up on my team then so be as I have little doubt he'll be serviceable for awhile longer.

I just don't see the upside with Forte. Let's say you draft him as the #5 rb...how many of you think he has a reasonable shot of finishing higher than that? I think that's his absolute ceiling and I view it unlikely he'll hit that mark. So you draft a guy who's absolute upside is where he's being drafted? That's absolutely horrible value. At least with a guy like SJax or ADP being drafted that high they've shown they're capable of putting up monster games.

I think some people put too much stock in where a player was drafted but let's not kid ourselves - there IS a reason players are drafted where they're drafted. No method is foolproof but we shouldn't take the exceptions to the rule like Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, Rod Smith, Curtis Martin and toss those names about to prove that where a guy was drafted is meaningless.

Does anybody think Reggie Bush would still be getting the ball force fed to him had he been a later round pick? He sure as heck hasn't blown away everybody on the football field yet because he was such a high pick he's going to get more rope before NO phases him out. A second round pick who looked good (but not special in any measureable statistic) isn't exactly an irreplaceable cog in the Chicago machine.

And finally, I think many (if not all) would agree a huge part of a player's value (especially rb's) stem from their situations. What is so appealing about Forte's situation? Are the Bears a young team? Do they have a good offensive line? Other quality offensive weapons to take attention away from Forte? A qb who can march this team up and down the field in the blink of an eye while setting him up for gimmie td plunges?

He doesn't break long runs, the offense is putrid, the offensive line is even worse...and his appeal is what exactly?

The thing about Forte is that his floor seems to be very high. Sure there are other RB's with more talent and they will have more monster games compared to Forte, but Forte was consistent every game last year. In my league Forte was the only player to have 0 games where he scored less than 10 points during the 16 week fantasy season. The next closest player was LT who had 3 games below 10 points. Forte's floor is pretty high barring injury. And he's already had a season in the top 5 of fantasy backs, so we know he is capable of doing it again. But what makes him such a good FF back to have is his floor looks to be quite high. I would be astounded if Forte isn't a top 10 RB next year, and there is reason to believe that he could be a top 10 RB for the next 2-3-4-5 years.

 

[lyon812]

So based on his combine, ypc, and draft position, we are supposed to downgrade him?

It seems rather logical to me. There is no question EBF wanted to catch people's attention and calling Forte THE most overrated player has caused more of a fight than his reasoning should have.Look at a player like Frank Gore - he did not play on a good team nor did he have a good o-line. Yet he averaged 4.8 in his first season splitting time with Barlow. In his first full season (2006), he averaged 5.4...the Niners were not a good team that year nor was their o-line anything special. In fact their entire offense was fairly lousy. I do think Forte should be ranked in the top ten rb's going forward - but that's not so much because he's clearly a stud as much as there isn't anybody else who deserves the spot. There are a handful of rb's I'd love to have on my team - Forte isn't a guy I'll go out of my way to acquire. If he ends up on my team then so be as I have little doubt he'll be serviceable for awhile longer. I just don't see the upside with Forte. Let's say you draft him as the #5 rb...how many of you think he has a reasonable shot of finishing higher than that? I think that's his absolute ceiling and I view it unlikely he'll hit that mark. So you draft a guy who's absolute upside is where he's being drafted? That's absolutely horrible value. At least with a guy like SJax or ADP being drafted that high they've shown they're capable of putting up monster games. I think some people put too much stock in where a player was drafted but let's not kid ourselves - there IS a reason players are drafted where they're drafted. No method is foolproof but we shouldn't take the exceptions to the rule like Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, Rod Smith, Curtis Martin and toss those names about to prove that where a guy was drafted is meaningless. Does anybody think Reggie Bush would still be getting the ball force fed to him had he been a later round pick? He sure as heck hasn't blown away everybody on the football field yet because he was such a high pick he's going to get more rope before NO phases him out. A second round pick who looked good (but not special in any measureable statistic) isn't exactly an irreplaceable cog in the Chicago machine.And finally, I think many (if not all) would agree a huge part of a player's value (especially rb's) stem from their situations. What is so appealing about Forte's situation? Are the Bears a young team? Do they have a good offensive line? Other quality offensive weapons to take attention away from Forte? A qb who can march this team up and down the field in the blink of an eye while setting him up for gimmie td plunges? He doesn't break long runs, the offense is putrid, the offensive line is even worse...and his appeal is what exactly?

Frank Gore is not a fair comparison. It is much easier to have a high ypc when your carries are limited

To give you the numbers for Bob's comparison above, which was first full-season: Gore 2006: 312 carries, 19.5 per game, 5.4ypc, 61 receptions, 9th in league in carriesForte 2008: 316 carries, 19.8 per game, 3.9ypc, 63 receptions, 4th in league in carriesYou'd be better served comparing later years. Gore averaged 16.7 carries in 2007, 17.1 in 2008. That being said, saying that his "carries are limited" when the difference is basically 3 a game isn't really proving anything. Heck, you'd be even better served noting Gore's YPC (4.2, 4.3) the last two years and saying that it's not that far off from Forte. But saying it isn't a fair comparison..come on, now.