Dynasty mindset (1 Viewer)

[Knowlt]

It's to that point in the year (if not already past it) to shape your dynasty mindset for next year, or even a playoff run this year. What route are you most sucessful with / what kind of advice could be had for someone in a similar situation.

I don't want to turn this into an Assistant Coach thread, however; with potential stash/breakout/injury guys like Keil Williams, Ringer, Darby, Goodson, Ches Taylor, etc available, do you move some veterans either with minor value now, and little to no value going forward, such as Vick, Driver, Portis, Farve, others, etc?

 

[thriftyrocker]

There's no reason to bail on Vick. He will start somewhere next year.

I would definitely sell on Portis, Chester, and Ricky for any value you can get.

The big question is when do you sell LT. The second big question is when do you sell TO. Both those guys are performing at stud levels this year, and might do so again next year. It will be hard for someone in the hunt - but with little chance to win - to sell those guys. But you probably should.

Darby isn't worth much at all. Goodson isn't worth much more.

 

[Tick]

I hate to say it, but it almost has to be an assistant coach question because there are too many variables involved. Roster size, number of teams, starting requirements, size of offseason rosters, scoring system, transaction rules, your team's record, your team's likely chances this year and next, your current collection of draft picks, the positions of strength on your team, the age of your starters, future value on your roster... there's too much that makes a big difference to make general strategy statements IMO. So, I'll do it anyway:

Roster size/number of teams/starting requirements: The bigger the rosters, the worse stuff is available on the wire, but that's always true, so this is a good time to scour for possible offseason promotions... Ajirotutu, Whitehurst, Sutton, Shipley, Tarvaris Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Kolb, McGahee, Olsen, Hart, Hardesty, BenTate, Maualuga, Angerer, Dillard, Lee, the LB on San Diego whose name I can't think off, Edds are some guys who could have a spike in value this offseason for various reasons but could possibly be available depending on how deep your league's rosters are. There's also a component of how many starters - if you have 16 teams with shallow rosters, a starting QB is worth more than in a 12-team league with larger rosters. If you can start 2 RBs and one flex, it drives up RB value and makes digging for possible future starters more important.

Size of offseason rosters: If you have to cut down to a staring lineup plus 10 bench spots, it doesn't really matter how large your in-season rosters are since you're not going to be keeping the guys anyway. In that case, just go for the best depth you can this season for the most part.

Scoring system: PPR is a big one, of course - without it, the incentive to consider undersized receivers goes down. Much the value interaction between the positions relies on this - 4/pass drives down the need to look for QB depth, 2 PPR for TEs makes them more attractive... on the IDP side, this can be huge - give a big bonus for sacks at an already thin DE position and it makes the Graham, Dunlap, Hughes, EBrown, etc. into great guys to stash.

Transaction rules: Obviously transaction costs drives up the cost of taking chances on players, whether it's real money or league money. If your league cuts off waivers really early, you might ignore future prospects to get depth at PK before the playoffs.

Your team's record: This affects other people's opinions of your draft picks if you're looking to trade. If you're 10th in scoring but 4-4, you're better off holding on to your picks because other people will see you as a middle-of-the-pack team, while in reality you're more likely to go 1-4 from here on out and get an earlier pick than others think.

Your team's likely chances this year and next: If you have a shot at a title, that has to be a major weight in the decision. Win a title, then work for next year in the offseason. Think of next season also - if you're not going to win this year because you have Romo, Grant, RMoss, and DWilliams, but you think they'll rebound enough next season, don't tear up your roster.

Your current collection of draft picks: I've got a league where our offseason rosters are 53, then expand to 60 at rookie draft time... and I've got 12 draft picks right now. That drives me to think about paying for help this season rather than looking to next season, since accumulating more draft picks gives less of an advantage than it might. It also means I don't look as strongly at waiver wire guys because I'm unlikely to keep them through next offseason.

The positions of strength on your team: I've got a league where there are always good safeties on the waiver wire... and I've got six really good safeties. There's no real point in spending much time looking at the guys on the wire.

The age of your starters: If you've got McFadden, McCoy, Mendenhall, Foster, and Wells, you don't need Portis as well... but you also don't necessarily need to look as strongly at RB prospects and can focus on WRs.

Future value on your roster: If you've got guys who aren't startable this year, but will be in the future (Mathews, Spiller, Hardesty, Crabtree, Bradford, Demaryius, etc.), there might be an incentive to sell an older player off knowing you won't need him as much in the future.

 

[Sabertooth]

It's to that point in the year (if not already past it) to shape your dynasty mindset for next year, or even a playoff run this year. What route are you most sucessful with / what kind of advice could be had for someone in a similar situation.

I don't want to turn this into an Assistant Coach thread, however; with potential stash/breakout/injury guys like Keil Williams, Ringer, Darby, Goodson, Ches Taylor, etc available, do you move some veterans either with minor value now, and little to no value going forward, such as Vick, Driver, Portis, Farve, others, etc?

Yeah, one of these is not like the others.

 

[DoubleG]

I hate to say it, but it almost has to be an assistant coach question because there are too many variables involved. Roster size, number of teams, starting requirements, size of offseason rosters, scoring system, transaction rules, your team's record, your team's likely chances this year and next, your current collection of draft picks, the positions of strength on your team, the age of your starters, future value on your roster... there's too much that makes a big difference to make general strategy statements IMO. So, I'll do it anyway:Roster size/number of teams/starting requirements: The bigger the rosters, the worse stuff is available on the wire, but that's always true, so this is a good time to scour for possible offseason promotions... Ajirotutu, Whitehurst, Sutton, Shipley, Tarvaris Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Kolb, McGahee, Olsen, Hart, Hardesty, BenTate, Maualuga, Angerer, Dillard, Lee, the LB on San Diego whose name I can't think off, Edds are some guys who could have a spike in value this offseason for various reasons but could possibly be available depending on how deep your league's rosters are. There's also a component of how many starters - if you have 16 teams with shallow rosters, a starting QB is worth more than in a 12-team league with larger rosters. If you can start 2 RBs and one flex, it drives up RB value and makes digging for possible future starters more important.Size of offseason rosters: If you have to cut down to a staring lineup plus 10 bench spots, it doesn't really matter how large your in-season rosters are since you're not going to be keeping the guys anyway. In that case, just go for the best depth you can this season for the most part.Scoring system: PPR is a big one, of course - without it, the incentive to consider undersized receivers goes down. Much the value interaction between the positions relies on this - 4/pass drives down the need to look for QB depth, 2 PPR for TEs makes them more attractive... on the IDP side, this can be huge - give a big bonus for sacks at an already thin DE position and it makes the Graham, Dunlap, Hughes, EBrown, etc. into great guys to stash.Transaction rules: Obviously transaction costs drives up the cost of taking chances on players, whether it's real money or league money. If your league cuts off waivers really early, you might ignore future prospects to get depth at PK before the playoffs.Your team's record: This affects other people's opinions of your draft picks if you're looking to trade. If you're 10th in scoring but 4-4, you're better off holding on to your picks because other people will see you as a middle-of-the-pack team, while in reality you're more likely to go 1-4 from here on out and get an earlier pick than others think.Your team's likely chances this year and next: If you have a shot at a title, that has to be a major weight in the decision. Win a title, then work for next year in the offseason. Think of next season also - if you're not going to win this year because you have Romo, Grant, RMoss, and DWilliams, but you think they'll rebound enough next season, don't tear up your roster.Your current collection of draft picks: I've got a league where our offseason rosters are 53, then expand to 60 at rookie draft time... and I've got 12 draft picks right now. That drives me to think about paying for help this season rather than looking to next season, since accumulating more draft picks gives less of an advantage than it might. It also means I don't look as strongly at waiver wire guys because I'm unlikely to keep them through next offseason.The positions of strength on your team: I've got a league where there are always good safeties on the waiver wire... and I've got six really good safeties. There's no real point in spending much time looking at the guys on the wire.The age of your starters: If you've got McFadden, McCoy, Mendenhall, Foster, and Wells, you don't need Portis as well... but you also don't necessarily need to look as strongly at RB prospects and can focus on WRs.Future value on your roster: If you've got guys who aren't startable this year, but will be in the future (Mathews, Spiller, Hardesty, Crabtree, Bradford, Demaryius, etc.), there might be an incentive to sell an older player off knowing you won't need him as much in the future.

Great posting - tons of good stuff in here.Some other minor tidbits I would toss out are:Whether you are in contention or not, scour the WW in leagues that aren't real deep for injured cast-offs that could/should be productive next year. Especially as you get past bye weeks, you may find room on your roster for an upside guy like , Montario Hardesty, Ben Tate or D. Alexander from the Rams or try to trade for a guy like Finley or Clark, whose value in shallow rostered leagues might be lower, expecially if the team is in contention and looking for roster space.As a general rule, I've always been of the mindset of "if you can make it into the playoffs, go for it" - especially in head-to-head leagues. There are so many variables in head-to-head play that all you need is 1 hot week or an unexpected hot streak by a who is filling in for an injured starter (see Ricky Williams last year, Jacob Tamme could be the same at TE this year) - and all of the sudden your a win a way from taking home the cash. Even in dynasty leagues, someone is going to win it this year - and if history serves as an example, it's not always (or even usually) the team that had the best record. Might as well be you.Mid to late round rookie picks in dynatsy leagues are fairly useless. Just go back and look at your previous drafts. Sure, there is an occasional diamond in the rough, but from about pick 12-15 on, it's alot more "miss" than "hit". The other thing to remember is that if you are actually trading to get better, that pick is going to be even later (assuming your picks are determined by record). If you are in contention trade those mid-to-late rounders for players that can help put you over the top - or at least use them to sweeten deals to get better now. Sometimes, you can even turn around and trade those players you picked up, back for draft picks.

 

[FUBAR]

As a general rule, I've always been of the mindset of "if you can make it into the playoffs, go for it" - especially in head-to-head leagues. There are so many variables in head-to-head play that all you need is 1 hot week or an unexpected hot streak by a who is filling in for an injured starter (see Ricky Williams last year, Jacob Tamme could be the same at TE this year) - and all of the sudden your a win a way from taking home the cash. Even in dynasty leagues, someone is going to win it this year - and if history serves as an example, it's not always (or even usually) the team that had the best record. Might as well be you.

As a general rule I agree with this but it depends on the league. In one of mine, there was a decent chance I could make the playoffs but we have a few dominant teams that unless there's a massive breakout of injuries on all three, one of those 3 is almost guaranteed to win it this year. So I dumped some guys for picks and injured players like Ryan Grant.

Mid to late round rookie picks in dynatsy leagues are fairly useless. Just go back and look at your previous drafts. Sure, there is an occasional diamond in the rough, but from about pick 12-15 on, it's alot more "miss" than "hit". The other thing to remember is that if you are actually trading to get better, that pick is going to be even later (assuming your picks are determined by record). If you are in contention trade those mid-to-late rounders for players that can help put you over the top - or at least use them to sweeten deals to get better now. Sometimes, you can even turn around and trade those players you picked up, back for draft picks.

I assume you're not referring to IDP here. Again, in general I agree, if you can get a productive old player for a mid-late pick, do it. In IDP leagues those late picks can be valuable. You also have to know yourself, honestly, are you a good drafter, finder of talent? I've certainly had misses but more hits of either key players that start for me like Lofton, Talib, and DJax or provide better trade value than the pick would have been like Bess, Henne and Moore. Overall I think I've been successful at finding later gems but many of those are IDPs or WR3/4 types and if I could have gotten a stud starter for the picks, that would have been beneficial - in other words, know yourself and know your league. Finding a bunch of WRs who will rank in the 30s won't help you much if your league has small rosters and lineups but if you start 4+ WRs in a large league they can help a lot. Right now is the ideal time to rebuild if you have the right players to trade and do it well. I'm less inclined to trade for picks in some leagues because they cost too much but a rookie or 2nd year player who isn't producing yet or is behind an older player is the kind of player to pursue.