Snorkelson
Footballguy
There are some distinct stages of off-season information that a savvy dynasty player should understand.
1. The lead up to the start of the league year.
Leading up to the beginning of the year is important to leverage. Potential free agents, cap casualties, etc can change the makeup of nfl rosters, launching previous backups into relevance (chase edwards) or offering a discounted trade price (Aaron Jones) because of landing spot uncertainty. You can also overpay (aj dillon) for players during this time. News during this time is often reliable- so and so will likely be cut for cap space, team wants to resign player, etc. This is a good time to sell someone who maybe had a great playoff run but has otherwise been pedestrian. Also the time to try to buy rookie picks, as they will be more costly in the draft lead up/post draft period.
2. The lead up to the draft.
DO NOT LISTEN to news during this time other than player evaluations. There’s a dead news period, so you get stories like “russel Wilson to be traded.” You can possibly leverage that news by buying someone like Lockett low, but news at this time is garbage most of the time. Mac Jones to SF was being built into fantasy values; it was a done deal, they went to his pro day! Take anything you hear in the lead up to the draft with a salt block. Still some time to move up or get rookie picks.
3. Post draft/June 1 cuts.
The time when you’re doing your rookie drafts; there’s information on depth charts but it’s speculation. Most active time for trading in pretty much every league. Rookie picks skyrocket. Trying to figure out skill positions that will open up room for a young player is the most important thing otherwise. Maybe you get russel gage as a throw in, or maybe you make a cheap offer on kmet or crowder in hopes they have a better situation by training camp.
First waiver periods in leagues, use your ww dollars for players who slipped through, or save them all for one big bid during preseason.
The other info that comes out during this period is stuff like “Etienne/d. Evans taking snaps at wr” which influences the value of the wrs (shenault) but also “Titans to use Henry in the passing game more” so it’s more speculation really, but offers a buy/sell window sometimes.
4. OTAs
PAY ATTENTION to the steady drumbeat. If every ota article talks about a young player who looks fantastic, they may just break out.
IGNORE the hope peddlers. How can you tell the difference?
I look for a steady stream of good news- shenault looks great with no pads, if he continues to have good news through camp I’m real excited. Bryan Edwards posted a picture, and it’s “wr1!!!!”
Coaches statements are hard to discern here- sometimes they seem down on a player as a motivational tactic, sometimes they talk up a role they have in mind.
per @tangfoot: There are lots of positive stories that sound nice but aren’t actionable; player in best shape of his life, early draft pick looks good- the hope peddlers. Note these stories and look for that consistent good news. Pay closer attention to the negative stories, like “player had 3 drops” “rookie qb had 3 picks in red zone drills” “was working with trainers on the sideline.”
Beware the speed merchant in the news before players are wearing pads.
5. Preseason
The cards are on the table somewhat. You can somewhat figure out how players will be used. People have their teams pretty much set. Last round of veteran roster cut downs (fournette/Robinson). Personally, in leagues with decent sized rosters, I’ll pick up any starting qb during off-season waivers and try to flip them for a late rd pick when a qb goes down, which happens a lot in preseason/early season. Need to be quick about it though- get that offer out there ASAP, owners will take that guy just so they aren’t over a barrel while they negotiate for a new starter.
Last chance to use off-season faab money.
5. Week 1
Really no information to glean from, but it’s worth mentioning that week 1 can be the most valuable FA week.
6. via @Biabreakable
Week 4 regular season/trade deadline
With 4 weeks of data to draw from, now is the time to look at usage and make trades to turn your season around or take your winning team to the next level (redraft). Bia expounds on those below in the replies with specific examples.
Also take note of the nfl trade deadline, where stuff actually happens now as opposed to when it was week 6 and trades were rare. Leverage that information to look for cheap guys who might find an opportunity or veterans who might find themselves playing for a playoff run, or guys who might benefit from a qb change.
When you want to move on from a player, or want to acquire one, reading the off-season tea leaves and pouncing at the right time can bring TONS of value, or it can cost you dearly.
1. The lead up to the start of the league year.
Leading up to the beginning of the year is important to leverage. Potential free agents, cap casualties, etc can change the makeup of nfl rosters, launching previous backups into relevance (chase edwards) or offering a discounted trade price (Aaron Jones) because of landing spot uncertainty. You can also overpay (aj dillon) for players during this time. News during this time is often reliable- so and so will likely be cut for cap space, team wants to resign player, etc. This is a good time to sell someone who maybe had a great playoff run but has otherwise been pedestrian. Also the time to try to buy rookie picks, as they will be more costly in the draft lead up/post draft period.
2. The lead up to the draft.
DO NOT LISTEN to news during this time other than player evaluations. There’s a dead news period, so you get stories like “russel Wilson to be traded.” You can possibly leverage that news by buying someone like Lockett low, but news at this time is garbage most of the time. Mac Jones to SF was being built into fantasy values; it was a done deal, they went to his pro day! Take anything you hear in the lead up to the draft with a salt block. Still some time to move up or get rookie picks.
3. Post draft/June 1 cuts.
The time when you’re doing your rookie drafts; there’s information on depth charts but it’s speculation. Most active time for trading in pretty much every league. Rookie picks skyrocket. Trying to figure out skill positions that will open up room for a young player is the most important thing otherwise. Maybe you get russel gage as a throw in, or maybe you make a cheap offer on kmet or crowder in hopes they have a better situation by training camp.
First waiver periods in leagues, use your ww dollars for players who slipped through, or save them all for one big bid during preseason.
The other info that comes out during this period is stuff like “Etienne/d. Evans taking snaps at wr” which influences the value of the wrs (shenault) but also “Titans to use Henry in the passing game more” so it’s more speculation really, but offers a buy/sell window sometimes.
4. OTAs
PAY ATTENTION to the steady drumbeat. If every ota article talks about a young player who looks fantastic, they may just break out.
IGNORE the hope peddlers. How can you tell the difference?
I look for a steady stream of good news- shenault looks great with no pads, if he continues to have good news through camp I’m real excited. Bryan Edwards posted a picture, and it’s “wr1!!!!”
Coaches statements are hard to discern here- sometimes they seem down on a player as a motivational tactic, sometimes they talk up a role they have in mind.
per @tangfoot: There are lots of positive stories that sound nice but aren’t actionable; player in best shape of his life, early draft pick looks good- the hope peddlers. Note these stories and look for that consistent good news. Pay closer attention to the negative stories, like “player had 3 drops” “rookie qb had 3 picks in red zone drills” “was working with trainers on the sideline.”
Beware the speed merchant in the news before players are wearing pads.
5. Preseason
The cards are on the table somewhat. You can somewhat figure out how players will be used. People have their teams pretty much set. Last round of veteran roster cut downs (fournette/Robinson). Personally, in leagues with decent sized rosters, I’ll pick up any starting qb during off-season waivers and try to flip them for a late rd pick when a qb goes down, which happens a lot in preseason/early season. Need to be quick about it though- get that offer out there ASAP, owners will take that guy just so they aren’t over a barrel while they negotiate for a new starter.
Last chance to use off-season faab money.
5. Week 1
Really no information to glean from, but it’s worth mentioning that week 1 can be the most valuable FA week.
6. via @Biabreakable
Week 4 regular season/trade deadline
With 4 weeks of data to draw from, now is the time to look at usage and make trades to turn your season around or take your winning team to the next level (redraft). Bia expounds on those below in the replies with specific examples.
Also take note of the nfl trade deadline, where stuff actually happens now as opposed to when it was week 6 and trades were rare. Leverage that information to look for cheap guys who might find an opportunity or veterans who might find themselves playing for a playoff run, or guys who might benefit from a qb change.
When you want to move on from a player, or want to acquire one, reading the off-season tea leaves and pouncing at the right time can bring TONS of value, or it can cost you dearly.
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