EBF
Footballguy
These rankings are for PPR leagues. A couple quick notes:
- I don't spend much time evaluating QBs. I've seen all of the top guys play, but I haven't taken the time to break down their game and get a good feel for their prospects, so what you'll read here is mostly based on what I've gathered from third party sources.
- I'm still sorting through the 3rd-7th round picks. My rankings are subject to change a little, particularly with the WRs.
- These rankings assume that RBs and WRs are more valuable than TEs and QBs.
- Green denotes a player who looks like an exceptional value to me. These are the players I recommend targeting.
First Tier
1. WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers
Crabtree is not quite a can’t miss prospect, but he’s close. He has the potential to develop into a quality possession receiver in the mold of Anquan Boldin or Dwayne Bowe. He’s already the most talented WR on the 49ers. With a year of seasoning, he should be ready to produce.
2. RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
I still have a nagging suspicion that Moreno might be fool’s gold since he doesn’t have the physical gifts you usually see from first round RBs, but he plays quicker and more explosive than he tests. He has very good lateral quickness, toughness, and instincts. He also offers good potential in the passing game. One or two of the backs in this draft might ultimately become better NFL players, but Moreno looks like the safest pick from where we stand today. I expect him to start immediately and receive a significant workload next season.
3. WR Percy Harvin, Vikings
Percy Harvin is one of the most talented skill players in this draft. There’s some talk of him being a tweener or a slot receiver, but that’s bunk. He has the exact same dimensions as Laveranues Coles at 5'11 192 pounds. I expect him to become that kind of player in the NFL and I think the character issues are overblown. He may be a diva, but I don’t think he’s a thug. I look for an immediate impact along the lines of what we saw from DeSean Jackson last season.
4. WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants
Nicks has good size and adequate mobility to become a WR1 in the NFL. I think he can produce immediately and eventually become a Dwayne Bowe type for the Giants. He doesn’t have the blazing speed of Maclin or Heyward-Bey, but he’s a better underneath target and not as enigmatic.
5. RB Shonn Greene, Jets
I liked Shonn Greene a lot going into the draft and I’m pleased with where he landed. Barring disaster, he should learn the ropes next season and emerge as New York’s starter in 2010. He has an ideal squatty frame, tremendous leg drive, fluid hips, very quick feet, and adequate speed. Plug him in, give him 300 carries, and watch the yards pile up. It won’t be flashy, but he’ll get the job done. I think he presents excellent value in the 5-10 range of drafts.
6. RB Chris Wells, Arizona
Wells is a huge enigma. Numerous pundits believe he has the potential to be one of the biggest steals of the NFL draft and he has a great opportunity as the starter in Arizona. However, he's a risky prospect whose athletic gifts come saddled with some serious durability/toughness concerns. Wells has a high center of gravity, long legs, and marginal avoidance skills. I think he’ll show flashes of dominance and possibly even win Rookie of the Year, but I wouldn’t want to invest in him at his current cost because I don’t think he’ll be successful over the long haul.
7. RB Donald Brown, Colts
Brown is a quick, explosive athlete who should at the very least offer a nice lightning complement to Joseph Addai. The big question is whether or not he has the potential to emerge as the workhorse back in the future. He’s not very big and although he runs hard, he simply doesn’t have the power to break NFL tackles and push the pile. He may be closer to Felix Jones than Edgerrin James. I would probably pass on him in favor of most of the first round WRs if given the choice, but he certainly has the potential to hit big. Bill Polian generally does a very good job of identifying players who fit his team’s system.
8. WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
Maclin has the speed to get deep and McNabb has the arm to find him. I think he’s slightly overrated, but he’s still a quality WR prospect and he’s much better than the likes of Troy Williamson (better hands) and Ted Ginn (better body proportions and strength). He’ll need to hone his route running if he’s going to live up to his hype, but he’s an immediate talent upgrade over Reggie Brown and potentially a long term WR1 for the Eagles.
Second Tier
9. RB LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
McCoy landed in an ideal situation for a back with his skill set. He’s not a punishing runner, but his lateral quickness and receiving skills have drawn comparisons to Brian Westbrook. Now he’ll have a chance to emerge as Wesbrook’s successor. Will he capitalize on that opportunity? I don’t know. The last two players tabbed to fill that role failed miserably (Lorenzo Booker and Ryan Moats). I think McCoy is better than those guys, but he has some holes in his game. He dances too much and doesn’t have great power. He might be relegated to a situational role like Leon Washington or Jerious Norwood. Nevertheless, the prospect of getting the next Westbrook makes him a tempting option in the mid-late first round of rookie drafts.
10. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
Heyward-Bey is the biggest boom-or-bust proposition in this WR class and the Raiders have shown a willingness to gamble on specimens with serious question marks (JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Fabian Washington, Stanford Routt). This is an ugly combination of player and situation. I think DHB’s potential will be wasted here and I suspect his career will mirror that of Donte Stallworth. He’ll show flashes of brilliance, but never become a consistent scorer.
11. QB Matt Stafford, Lions
Stafford is an experienced player who will benefit greatly from the presence of Calvin Johnson and safety valve Brandon Pettigrew. He was the top pick in the draft and seemingly has a decent chance of developing into a quality NFL starter. On the downside, the Lions have a poor offensive line and have shown no ability to develop young talent. There are also some observers who question Stafford’s consistency and intangibles.
12. QB Mark Sanchez, Jets
The “it” factor is huge at the QB position and a lot of onlookers think Sanchez trumps Stafford in this regard. What worries me is the lack of experience and the fact that he might be another big program QB whose game is overrated because he plays for a national powerhouse. You have to be impressed by what he accomplished in his only season as a starter, but he’ll likely need some seasoning before he’s ready to face NFL defenses. Like any QB prospect, there’s tremendous bust risk.
13. WR Kenny Britt, Titans
Britt doesn’t move as well as the other top WRs in this draft, but he’s the biggest of the bunch and he landed in a place with a serious talent void at WR. The path to Tennessee’s WR1 job is wide open. Will Britt seize the opportunity? I’m not a believer in his skills, but you simply can’t ignore a productive first round WR with the potential to become his team’s go-to guy.
14. WR Brandon Tate, Patriots
I believe Tate is potentially one of the 3-4 best WRs from this class. Had he not ripped up his knee and failed a drug test, he likely would’ve been a late first-early second round pick. The fact that he has so many red flags and still managed to be the 10th WR drafted speaks volumes about his talent. Make no mistake, this isn’t Chad Jackson. This guy can play. He’s smooth, explosive, and coordinated. I think he has the potential to become a Derrick Mason or Donald Driver type. The character concerns are legitimate and he probably won’t be ready to contribute for 2-3 years, but if anyone is going to emerge from that glut of 3rd-4th round WRs and become a startable FF option, my money is on Tate.
Third Tier
15. RB Andre Brown, Giants
In many respects, Brown’s draft profile will remind you of Brandon Jacobs. Like Jacobs, Brown is a big power back with surprising speed and questionable durability. He was touted as a five star recruit coming out of high school, but he never lived up the hype at NC State. For all his physical gifts, he appears to have questionable instincts and decisiveness. He’s a stiff, upright runner who takes too many shots to his body. Despite all these flaws, Brown is a viable option after the top five RBs go off the board because he could conceivably thrive if Brandon Jacobs were to get injured (a very realistic possibility). Derrick Ward left in the offseason and Ahmad Bradshaw is just a complementary back.
16. WR Brian Robiskie, Browns
Robiskie is the kind of guy that pundits love to praise because he’s harmless. He’s a hard worker, his dad has NFL ties, and he was a solid player for a major program. That’s all well and fine, but is this guy really a special talent? He catches the ball well and there are no glaring holes in his game, but he’s not very gifted physically and I find it hard to believe that he’s going to emerge as a standout FF option. He’s not particularly strong, not particularly quick, and not particularly fast. Maybe I’m missing things, but I just don’t see any special qualities here. I think Robiskie will put up decent stats in the short term, but plateau at around 700-800 yards per season. Think Michael Jenkins, Reggie Brown, and Bryant Johnson. I’m avoiding him like poison in my drafts.
17. QB Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
The Bucs invested a top 20 pick in Freeman, meaning he’ll be given every opportunity to justify the pick and become their franchise QB. I have no idea whether he’ll succeed or fail. He has all of the physical ability that you look for, but you never know if a QB has the intangibles until he’s played some NFL games. I don’t particularly trust the direction of the Bucs franchise, so I’m erring towards skepticism when it comes to Freeman.
18. WR Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns
I think this could be another situation like Bryant Johnson/Anquan Boldin where a team drafts two WRs in the same year and the later pick ends up being the better player. There are serious question marks about Massaquoi’s consistency, but he’s a better athlete than Robiskie. He’s a fluid, well-built player who physically looks the part of an NFL starting WR. I don’t know if he’ll ever be able to live up to his potential, but he’s worth a look in the WR7-10 range.
19. WR Mike Thomas, Jaguars
More physically gifted than his new teammate Dillard, Thomas is in the same class as DHB and Harvin when it comes to raw athleticism. Unfortunately, he’s under 5'8 tall. Can someone that short really become a productive pro WR? I don’t know, but Thomas has a powerful frame for his height. Every short WR prospect with speed is compared to Steve Smith these days. Thomas is the first one who actually resembles the Carolina star. He’s a nice gamble once the elite talents are gone.
20. TE Jared Cook, Titans
Cook is an athletic specimen who will be groomed to replace Alge Crumpler. Tennessee has historically had some decent TEs, so this seems like a nice combination of opportunity and talent.
21. TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
Pettigrew looks like a low ceiling/high floor FF option who should eventually give you Heath Miller numbers with a slight chance of becoming a top 5 guy. His lack of elite burst prevents him from joining the Winslow/Shockey class as a receiving prospect.
22. QB Pat White, Dolphins
Whether White succeeds or fails, it will be interesting to watch his career unfold. The dual threat QB has seen his stock climb throughout the offseason to the point where the Dolphins felt comfortable spending a 2nd round pick on him despite having Chad Pennington and Chad Henne on the roster. His flashy running skills will likely land him some screen time on the highlight shows, but he will only become a relevant FF player if he’s able to develop as a passer and become a true quarterback. By all indications, he’ll at least be given the chance.
Fourth Tier
23. WR Jarett Dillard, Jaguars
Dillard slipped in the draft because he’s short, slender, and comparatively slow. He’s not laterally quick enough to project well as a slot WR and he doesn’t have the sheer size and/or speed that teams look for in an outside WR. Can he overcome these hurdles and become a productive pro? Hard to say for sure, but I wouldn’t count it out. He was immensely productive in college and he possesses all of the inherent skills that you look for from a receiver. He runs great routes, makes circus catches over defenders, and has vacuum hands. He’ll work hard and get the most out of his skills. I won’t guarantee success at the pro level, but I like him more than the remaining wideouts on the board.
24. RB Cedric Peerman, Ravens
Despite having an intriguing size/speed combo and a pretty decent college career, Peerman tumbled all the way to the 6th round of the draft. 6th round picks are a longshot and he faces an uphill battle to achieve significant FF value, but he has a versatile skill set with enough upside to potentially make some noise down the road. He has a stocky frame, good speed, and decent quicks. LeRon McClain is a gimmick and Willis McGahee is a husk of his former self, so there’s more opportunity in Baltimore than you might think.
25. WR Austin Collie, Colts
This is a nice synergy of talent and system. Collie isn’t explosive or fast, but he’s a smooth player with good hands and great production at the college level. If Anthony Gonzalez should falter in his first season as a starter, it’s possible that Collie could push him for the WR2 job opposite Reggie Wayne. Temper your expectations though. He’s a scrappy player, but not a freak talent. Guys like this seem to have trouble in today’s NFL. Had he not landed on the Colts, I would be skeptical of his chances.
26. RB Glen Coffee, 49ers
Coffee is a talented player. He had a great season last year in a tough conference, but I’m not sure how well his game will translate to the NFL. He’s built more like a WR than a RB at 6'2 and less than 200 pounds. I think he’s a poor man’s Kevin Smith and while he may have some short term value if Gore goes down, I don’t see him emerging as the successor in San Francisco. However, they drafted him so early that they must be pretty high on his game. He could be underrated here. If you don’t like the other late tier backs, you might want to take a chance on Coffee.
27. RB Gartrell Johnson, Chargers
Johnson’s workout numbers leave a lot to be desired, but he gets the most out of his ability. He profiles as a no-nonsense Mike Anderson type who can thrive in spurts. I doubt that he’ll duplicate the success of recent Chargers 5th round pick Michael Turner, but he’s a quality player who will make the roster. If LT breaks down in the next season or two, Johnson could be a decent stopgap solution.
28. RB Mike Goodson, Panthers
Goodson is a WR/RB tweener who has the raw ability to make a Norwood type impact for the Panthers. Right now he doesn’t have much opportunity, but DeAngelo Williams will be out of the picture eventually and Goodson could provide a little lightning to go along with Jonathan Stewart’s thunder. His upside might be limited because he probably doesn’t have the frame to handle a heavy workload.
29. TE Cornelius Ingram, Eagles
Ingram is one of the most athletic TEs in this draft and might have pushed for a top 100 spot in the draft if not for a serious injury. I think he has the talent to eventually become the top TE for the Eagles and I like his upside as a late pick if you need a TE.
30. WR Kenny McKinley, Broncos
I think McKinley is a solid player who could potentially have a quality career in the NFL. His overall game and talent level reminds me of Jets WR Chansi Stuckey. McKinley is quick, fast, and productive. He’s South Carolina’s career leader in receptions, but he has a slender frame and may be best suited to a reserve role. He’s also buried behind two elite young WRs, so we probably won’t hear much from him unless Marshall has further legal problems.
31. WR Johnny Knox, Bears
I haven’t seen him play much. All I know is that he looks pretty fluid and he has blistering speed. I think he has more upside than teammate Juaquin Iglesias. In a best case scenario, he could become a Lance Moore type for Chicago. Right now he’s just a project who’s much more likely to fail than succeed.
32. WR Ramses Barden, Giants
Barden is a king-sized WR who will have a chance to claim some of Plaxico’s red zone looks. There’s some long term potential here, but many scouts question Barden’s ability to separate and he’s probably only the third best young WR on this team behind Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks. Monitor his training camp progress and consider acquiring him if he outplays Nicks. For now he looks like a one trick pony who may be limited to a narrow role as a red zone specialist.
33. TE Shawn Nelson, Bills
The Bills have been searching for a receiving threat at TE for a few years. They may have found their man in Nelson, who’s basically an oversized WR lining up at TE. His lack of blocking skills may limit his playing time, but he’s an athletic receiver who could become relevant in FF leagues.
Fifth Tier
34. RB James Davis, Browns
Once upon a time, Davis was thought to be a potential blue chip NFL prospect. He was eventually outed as a mediocre talent, but he has enough size and mobility to make some noise in the event of a Jamal Lewis injury. He could be this year’s Tim Hightower depending on how well Lewis plays. I doubt he has enough ability to emerge as Cleveland's next franchise back.
35. RB Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
Jennings will battle Chauncey Washington for a roster spot. Neither player deserves to take many carries away from MJD, but teams need multiple backs these days and Jennings has the potential to become a decent complement. He’ll probably only have significant FF value if Jones-Drew suffers an injury.
36. WR Derrick Williams, Lions
Derrick Williams is a quick return specialist who also offers potential as a WR. He was a five star recruit coming out of high school, but never really looked like a standout player when I watched him at Penn State. Nevertheless, he had a solid week of Senior Bowl practices and now has the opportunity to compete for a long term starting job opposite Calvin Johnson. I doubt he'll succeed, but you shouldn't ignore a 3rd round WR with an opportunity.
37. QB Stephen McGee, Dallas
McGee is an interesting project who figures to be the developmental QB3 behind Romo and Kitna next season. He’s an athletic QB whose stock rebounded after a disappointing career at Texas A&M. He looked very good at the Shrine Bowl and helped himself with a strong week of practice. The Dallas offense isn’t what it once was now that Owens is gone, but McGee has a chance to eventually blossom into a starter here or elsewhere. He looks like a decent late pick if you’re willing to be patient with him for a few years.
38. WR Mike Wallace, Steelers
Thomas was obviously drafted as a replacement for the departed Nate Washington. He’s a speedy receiver who should be able to threaten the secondary and make some big plays. Can he polish his game and become the heir to Hines Ward’s starting job? I doubt it.
39. WR Deon Butler, Seahawks
Mike Mayock thinks Butler will be a better pro receiver than his Penn State counterpart Derrick Williams. I tend to agree. Butler has good speed, hands, and route running skills. I think he projects nicely as a slot receiver. The Seahawks are probably hoping that he’ll fill the void created by Bobby Engram’s departure. He doesn’t have a huge upside, but he should be a decent pro.
40. WR Patrick Turner, Dolphins
Turner was a big time recruit coming out of high school. He gradually became an above average college player at USC, but never flashed the kind of talent that makes you think he can stick as a starter in the NFL. He’s a big target with halfway decent speed and hands, but he’s not explosive or aggressive. Basically, he’s Maurice Stovall with weaker jump ball skills.
41. WR Juaquin Iglesias, Bears
The Bears may have added Jay Cutler, but Jerry Angelo is still Jerry Angelo. I believe Iglesias is one of the most overrated WR prospects in the draft. He’s the classic big program WR whose skills are overhyped because he plays for a high profile team. He doesn’t have the size to be a power receiver or the speed to be a downfield receiver. He looks like a slot guy who will be useless for FF purposes.
42. RB Javon Ringer, Titans
Ringer is a squatty little back with a strong lower body and good lateral quickness. I don’t think he has the raw size needed to be a starter in the league, but he’ll make the roster and possibly contribute in the event of an injury. I don’t see him pushing LenDale White aside simply because he can’t match Fatty’s power even though he might be the better overall back.
43. TE James Casey, Texans
Casey is an interesting prospect thanks to his versatility and hands, but he’s buried behind a quality starter and I don’t know if he has the burst to emerge as a startable option. He will probably languish in obscurity behind Daniels for a few years and there's no guarantee that he'll get a shot to start elsewhere.
- I don't spend much time evaluating QBs. I've seen all of the top guys play, but I haven't taken the time to break down their game and get a good feel for their prospects, so what you'll read here is mostly based on what I've gathered from third party sources.
- I'm still sorting through the 3rd-7th round picks. My rankings are subject to change a little, particularly with the WRs.
- These rankings assume that RBs and WRs are more valuable than TEs and QBs.
- Green denotes a player who looks like an exceptional value to me. These are the players I recommend targeting.
First Tier
1. WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers
Crabtree is not quite a can’t miss prospect, but he’s close. He has the potential to develop into a quality possession receiver in the mold of Anquan Boldin or Dwayne Bowe. He’s already the most talented WR on the 49ers. With a year of seasoning, he should be ready to produce.
2. RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
I still have a nagging suspicion that Moreno might be fool’s gold since he doesn’t have the physical gifts you usually see from first round RBs, but he plays quicker and more explosive than he tests. He has very good lateral quickness, toughness, and instincts. He also offers good potential in the passing game. One or two of the backs in this draft might ultimately become better NFL players, but Moreno looks like the safest pick from where we stand today. I expect him to start immediately and receive a significant workload next season.
3. WR Percy Harvin, Vikings
Percy Harvin is one of the most talented skill players in this draft. There’s some talk of him being a tweener or a slot receiver, but that’s bunk. He has the exact same dimensions as Laveranues Coles at 5'11 192 pounds. I expect him to become that kind of player in the NFL and I think the character issues are overblown. He may be a diva, but I don’t think he’s a thug. I look for an immediate impact along the lines of what we saw from DeSean Jackson last season.
4. WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants
Nicks has good size and adequate mobility to become a WR1 in the NFL. I think he can produce immediately and eventually become a Dwayne Bowe type for the Giants. He doesn’t have the blazing speed of Maclin or Heyward-Bey, but he’s a better underneath target and not as enigmatic.
5. RB Shonn Greene, Jets
I liked Shonn Greene a lot going into the draft and I’m pleased with where he landed. Barring disaster, he should learn the ropes next season and emerge as New York’s starter in 2010. He has an ideal squatty frame, tremendous leg drive, fluid hips, very quick feet, and adequate speed. Plug him in, give him 300 carries, and watch the yards pile up. It won’t be flashy, but he’ll get the job done. I think he presents excellent value in the 5-10 range of drafts.
6. RB Chris Wells, Arizona
Wells is a huge enigma. Numerous pundits believe he has the potential to be one of the biggest steals of the NFL draft and he has a great opportunity as the starter in Arizona. However, he's a risky prospect whose athletic gifts come saddled with some serious durability/toughness concerns. Wells has a high center of gravity, long legs, and marginal avoidance skills. I think he’ll show flashes of dominance and possibly even win Rookie of the Year, but I wouldn’t want to invest in him at his current cost because I don’t think he’ll be successful over the long haul.
7. RB Donald Brown, Colts
Brown is a quick, explosive athlete who should at the very least offer a nice lightning complement to Joseph Addai. The big question is whether or not he has the potential to emerge as the workhorse back in the future. He’s not very big and although he runs hard, he simply doesn’t have the power to break NFL tackles and push the pile. He may be closer to Felix Jones than Edgerrin James. I would probably pass on him in favor of most of the first round WRs if given the choice, but he certainly has the potential to hit big. Bill Polian generally does a very good job of identifying players who fit his team’s system.
8. WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
Maclin has the speed to get deep and McNabb has the arm to find him. I think he’s slightly overrated, but he’s still a quality WR prospect and he’s much better than the likes of Troy Williamson (better hands) and Ted Ginn (better body proportions and strength). He’ll need to hone his route running if he’s going to live up to his hype, but he’s an immediate talent upgrade over Reggie Brown and potentially a long term WR1 for the Eagles.
Second Tier
9. RB LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
McCoy landed in an ideal situation for a back with his skill set. He’s not a punishing runner, but his lateral quickness and receiving skills have drawn comparisons to Brian Westbrook. Now he’ll have a chance to emerge as Wesbrook’s successor. Will he capitalize on that opportunity? I don’t know. The last two players tabbed to fill that role failed miserably (Lorenzo Booker and Ryan Moats). I think McCoy is better than those guys, but he has some holes in his game. He dances too much and doesn’t have great power. He might be relegated to a situational role like Leon Washington or Jerious Norwood. Nevertheless, the prospect of getting the next Westbrook makes him a tempting option in the mid-late first round of rookie drafts.
10. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
Heyward-Bey is the biggest boom-or-bust proposition in this WR class and the Raiders have shown a willingness to gamble on specimens with serious question marks (JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Fabian Washington, Stanford Routt). This is an ugly combination of player and situation. I think DHB’s potential will be wasted here and I suspect his career will mirror that of Donte Stallworth. He’ll show flashes of brilliance, but never become a consistent scorer.
11. QB Matt Stafford, Lions
Stafford is an experienced player who will benefit greatly from the presence of Calvin Johnson and safety valve Brandon Pettigrew. He was the top pick in the draft and seemingly has a decent chance of developing into a quality NFL starter. On the downside, the Lions have a poor offensive line and have shown no ability to develop young talent. There are also some observers who question Stafford’s consistency and intangibles.
12. QB Mark Sanchez, Jets
The “it” factor is huge at the QB position and a lot of onlookers think Sanchez trumps Stafford in this regard. What worries me is the lack of experience and the fact that he might be another big program QB whose game is overrated because he plays for a national powerhouse. You have to be impressed by what he accomplished in his only season as a starter, but he’ll likely need some seasoning before he’s ready to face NFL defenses. Like any QB prospect, there’s tremendous bust risk.
13. WR Kenny Britt, Titans
Britt doesn’t move as well as the other top WRs in this draft, but he’s the biggest of the bunch and he landed in a place with a serious talent void at WR. The path to Tennessee’s WR1 job is wide open. Will Britt seize the opportunity? I’m not a believer in his skills, but you simply can’t ignore a productive first round WR with the potential to become his team’s go-to guy.
14. WR Brandon Tate, Patriots
I believe Tate is potentially one of the 3-4 best WRs from this class. Had he not ripped up his knee and failed a drug test, he likely would’ve been a late first-early second round pick. The fact that he has so many red flags and still managed to be the 10th WR drafted speaks volumes about his talent. Make no mistake, this isn’t Chad Jackson. This guy can play. He’s smooth, explosive, and coordinated. I think he has the potential to become a Derrick Mason or Donald Driver type. The character concerns are legitimate and he probably won’t be ready to contribute for 2-3 years, but if anyone is going to emerge from that glut of 3rd-4th round WRs and become a startable FF option, my money is on Tate.
Third Tier
15. RB Andre Brown, Giants
In many respects, Brown’s draft profile will remind you of Brandon Jacobs. Like Jacobs, Brown is a big power back with surprising speed and questionable durability. He was touted as a five star recruit coming out of high school, but he never lived up the hype at NC State. For all his physical gifts, he appears to have questionable instincts and decisiveness. He’s a stiff, upright runner who takes too many shots to his body. Despite all these flaws, Brown is a viable option after the top five RBs go off the board because he could conceivably thrive if Brandon Jacobs were to get injured (a very realistic possibility). Derrick Ward left in the offseason and Ahmad Bradshaw is just a complementary back.
16. WR Brian Robiskie, Browns
Robiskie is the kind of guy that pundits love to praise because he’s harmless. He’s a hard worker, his dad has NFL ties, and he was a solid player for a major program. That’s all well and fine, but is this guy really a special talent? He catches the ball well and there are no glaring holes in his game, but he’s not very gifted physically and I find it hard to believe that he’s going to emerge as a standout FF option. He’s not particularly strong, not particularly quick, and not particularly fast. Maybe I’m missing things, but I just don’t see any special qualities here. I think Robiskie will put up decent stats in the short term, but plateau at around 700-800 yards per season. Think Michael Jenkins, Reggie Brown, and Bryant Johnson. I’m avoiding him like poison in my drafts.
17. QB Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
The Bucs invested a top 20 pick in Freeman, meaning he’ll be given every opportunity to justify the pick and become their franchise QB. I have no idea whether he’ll succeed or fail. He has all of the physical ability that you look for, but you never know if a QB has the intangibles until he’s played some NFL games. I don’t particularly trust the direction of the Bucs franchise, so I’m erring towards skepticism when it comes to Freeman.
18. WR Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns
I think this could be another situation like Bryant Johnson/Anquan Boldin where a team drafts two WRs in the same year and the later pick ends up being the better player. There are serious question marks about Massaquoi’s consistency, but he’s a better athlete than Robiskie. He’s a fluid, well-built player who physically looks the part of an NFL starting WR. I don’t know if he’ll ever be able to live up to his potential, but he’s worth a look in the WR7-10 range.
19. WR Mike Thomas, Jaguars
More physically gifted than his new teammate Dillard, Thomas is in the same class as DHB and Harvin when it comes to raw athleticism. Unfortunately, he’s under 5'8 tall. Can someone that short really become a productive pro WR? I don’t know, but Thomas has a powerful frame for his height. Every short WR prospect with speed is compared to Steve Smith these days. Thomas is the first one who actually resembles the Carolina star. He’s a nice gamble once the elite talents are gone.
20. TE Jared Cook, Titans
Cook is an athletic specimen who will be groomed to replace Alge Crumpler. Tennessee has historically had some decent TEs, so this seems like a nice combination of opportunity and talent.
21. TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
Pettigrew looks like a low ceiling/high floor FF option who should eventually give you Heath Miller numbers with a slight chance of becoming a top 5 guy. His lack of elite burst prevents him from joining the Winslow/Shockey class as a receiving prospect.
22. QB Pat White, Dolphins
Whether White succeeds or fails, it will be interesting to watch his career unfold. The dual threat QB has seen his stock climb throughout the offseason to the point where the Dolphins felt comfortable spending a 2nd round pick on him despite having Chad Pennington and Chad Henne on the roster. His flashy running skills will likely land him some screen time on the highlight shows, but he will only become a relevant FF player if he’s able to develop as a passer and become a true quarterback. By all indications, he’ll at least be given the chance.
Fourth Tier
23. WR Jarett Dillard, Jaguars
Dillard slipped in the draft because he’s short, slender, and comparatively slow. He’s not laterally quick enough to project well as a slot WR and he doesn’t have the sheer size and/or speed that teams look for in an outside WR. Can he overcome these hurdles and become a productive pro? Hard to say for sure, but I wouldn’t count it out. He was immensely productive in college and he possesses all of the inherent skills that you look for from a receiver. He runs great routes, makes circus catches over defenders, and has vacuum hands. He’ll work hard and get the most out of his skills. I won’t guarantee success at the pro level, but I like him more than the remaining wideouts on the board.
24. RB Cedric Peerman, Ravens
Despite having an intriguing size/speed combo and a pretty decent college career, Peerman tumbled all the way to the 6th round of the draft. 6th round picks are a longshot and he faces an uphill battle to achieve significant FF value, but he has a versatile skill set with enough upside to potentially make some noise down the road. He has a stocky frame, good speed, and decent quicks. LeRon McClain is a gimmick and Willis McGahee is a husk of his former self, so there’s more opportunity in Baltimore than you might think.
25. WR Austin Collie, Colts
This is a nice synergy of talent and system. Collie isn’t explosive or fast, but he’s a smooth player with good hands and great production at the college level. If Anthony Gonzalez should falter in his first season as a starter, it’s possible that Collie could push him for the WR2 job opposite Reggie Wayne. Temper your expectations though. He’s a scrappy player, but not a freak talent. Guys like this seem to have trouble in today’s NFL. Had he not landed on the Colts, I would be skeptical of his chances.
26. RB Glen Coffee, 49ers
Coffee is a talented player. He had a great season last year in a tough conference, but I’m not sure how well his game will translate to the NFL. He’s built more like a WR than a RB at 6'2 and less than 200 pounds. I think he’s a poor man’s Kevin Smith and while he may have some short term value if Gore goes down, I don’t see him emerging as the successor in San Francisco. However, they drafted him so early that they must be pretty high on his game. He could be underrated here. If you don’t like the other late tier backs, you might want to take a chance on Coffee.
27. RB Gartrell Johnson, Chargers
Johnson’s workout numbers leave a lot to be desired, but he gets the most out of his ability. He profiles as a no-nonsense Mike Anderson type who can thrive in spurts. I doubt that he’ll duplicate the success of recent Chargers 5th round pick Michael Turner, but he’s a quality player who will make the roster. If LT breaks down in the next season or two, Johnson could be a decent stopgap solution.
28. RB Mike Goodson, Panthers
Goodson is a WR/RB tweener who has the raw ability to make a Norwood type impact for the Panthers. Right now he doesn’t have much opportunity, but DeAngelo Williams will be out of the picture eventually and Goodson could provide a little lightning to go along with Jonathan Stewart’s thunder. His upside might be limited because he probably doesn’t have the frame to handle a heavy workload.
29. TE Cornelius Ingram, Eagles
Ingram is one of the most athletic TEs in this draft and might have pushed for a top 100 spot in the draft if not for a serious injury. I think he has the talent to eventually become the top TE for the Eagles and I like his upside as a late pick if you need a TE.
30. WR Kenny McKinley, Broncos
I think McKinley is a solid player who could potentially have a quality career in the NFL. His overall game and talent level reminds me of Jets WR Chansi Stuckey. McKinley is quick, fast, and productive. He’s South Carolina’s career leader in receptions, but he has a slender frame and may be best suited to a reserve role. He’s also buried behind two elite young WRs, so we probably won’t hear much from him unless Marshall has further legal problems.
31. WR Johnny Knox, Bears
I haven’t seen him play much. All I know is that he looks pretty fluid and he has blistering speed. I think he has more upside than teammate Juaquin Iglesias. In a best case scenario, he could become a Lance Moore type for Chicago. Right now he’s just a project who’s much more likely to fail than succeed.
32. WR Ramses Barden, Giants
Barden is a king-sized WR who will have a chance to claim some of Plaxico’s red zone looks. There’s some long term potential here, but many scouts question Barden’s ability to separate and he’s probably only the third best young WR on this team behind Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks. Monitor his training camp progress and consider acquiring him if he outplays Nicks. For now he looks like a one trick pony who may be limited to a narrow role as a red zone specialist.
33. TE Shawn Nelson, Bills
The Bills have been searching for a receiving threat at TE for a few years. They may have found their man in Nelson, who’s basically an oversized WR lining up at TE. His lack of blocking skills may limit his playing time, but he’s an athletic receiver who could become relevant in FF leagues.
Fifth Tier
34. RB James Davis, Browns
Once upon a time, Davis was thought to be a potential blue chip NFL prospect. He was eventually outed as a mediocre talent, but he has enough size and mobility to make some noise in the event of a Jamal Lewis injury. He could be this year’s Tim Hightower depending on how well Lewis plays. I doubt he has enough ability to emerge as Cleveland's next franchise back.
35. RB Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
Jennings will battle Chauncey Washington for a roster spot. Neither player deserves to take many carries away from MJD, but teams need multiple backs these days and Jennings has the potential to become a decent complement. He’ll probably only have significant FF value if Jones-Drew suffers an injury.
36. WR Derrick Williams, Lions
Derrick Williams is a quick return specialist who also offers potential as a WR. He was a five star recruit coming out of high school, but never really looked like a standout player when I watched him at Penn State. Nevertheless, he had a solid week of Senior Bowl practices and now has the opportunity to compete for a long term starting job opposite Calvin Johnson. I doubt he'll succeed, but you shouldn't ignore a 3rd round WR with an opportunity.
37. QB Stephen McGee, Dallas
McGee is an interesting project who figures to be the developmental QB3 behind Romo and Kitna next season. He’s an athletic QB whose stock rebounded after a disappointing career at Texas A&M. He looked very good at the Shrine Bowl and helped himself with a strong week of practice. The Dallas offense isn’t what it once was now that Owens is gone, but McGee has a chance to eventually blossom into a starter here or elsewhere. He looks like a decent late pick if you’re willing to be patient with him for a few years.
38. WR Mike Wallace, Steelers
Thomas was obviously drafted as a replacement for the departed Nate Washington. He’s a speedy receiver who should be able to threaten the secondary and make some big plays. Can he polish his game and become the heir to Hines Ward’s starting job? I doubt it.
39. WR Deon Butler, Seahawks
Mike Mayock thinks Butler will be a better pro receiver than his Penn State counterpart Derrick Williams. I tend to agree. Butler has good speed, hands, and route running skills. I think he projects nicely as a slot receiver. The Seahawks are probably hoping that he’ll fill the void created by Bobby Engram’s departure. He doesn’t have a huge upside, but he should be a decent pro.
40. WR Patrick Turner, Dolphins
Turner was a big time recruit coming out of high school. He gradually became an above average college player at USC, but never flashed the kind of talent that makes you think he can stick as a starter in the NFL. He’s a big target with halfway decent speed and hands, but he’s not explosive or aggressive. Basically, he’s Maurice Stovall with weaker jump ball skills.
41. WR Juaquin Iglesias, Bears
The Bears may have added Jay Cutler, but Jerry Angelo is still Jerry Angelo. I believe Iglesias is one of the most overrated WR prospects in the draft. He’s the classic big program WR whose skills are overhyped because he plays for a high profile team. He doesn’t have the size to be a power receiver or the speed to be a downfield receiver. He looks like a slot guy who will be useless for FF purposes.
42. RB Javon Ringer, Titans
Ringer is a squatty little back with a strong lower body and good lateral quickness. I don’t think he has the raw size needed to be a starter in the league, but he’ll make the roster and possibly contribute in the event of an injury. I don’t see him pushing LenDale White aside simply because he can’t match Fatty’s power even though he might be the better overall back.
43. TE James Casey, Texans
Casey is an interesting prospect thanks to his versatility and hands, but he’s buried behind a quality starter and I don’t know if he has the burst to emerge as a startable option. He will probably languish in obscurity behind Daniels for a few years and there's no guarantee that he'll get a shot to start elsewhere.
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I think Id move Donald Brown ahead of the WRs, he's a much safer bet imo. Other than that and the absence of scott I think this list is much to reality closer then blooms 
(although bloom has alot more gutsy calls) Bloom has Dillard way too high still, I appreciate his bullishness about it, but I dont agree with him. to make a long story short bloom has Tate too low, Dillard, Thomas, DHB too high and the RBs as a whole too low, as well as Cook. I think Id move DHB down some more. I cant picture myself taking him over Stafford or Sanchez, I think he's got bust written all over him. Randy Moss couldnt succeed in Oakland, dont think DHB can succeed with ####ty coaches, crappie oline, and a crappy QB on a run heavy team.
