Dynasty QB Stashes... (1 Viewer)

[lod01]

NY is not going to trade Manning. Their OC and the offensive philosophy may however be sent packing.

I don't think anyone has mentioned him, but I'm buying on Bray. He's already passed up Stanzi. He can make throws Smith and Chase wouldn't even attempt. He's got all of the physical skills. If his head is on straight, I think he's the future in KC. If anyone can fix him, it's Andy Reid.

I agree with this. Nassib is another I have stashed as an Eli owner. I think there's a real possibility Eli has a new address next season.

Absolutely no chance of that. If anyone is sent packing it's Gilbride and his offensive philosophy.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Sports on Earth's Russ Lande tweeted he spoke with one NFL "higher up" who said none of the QBs in the 2014 class are as good Ryan Nassib.

Lande later clarified that this NFL personnel member does not work for the Giants. The former NFL scout turned writer listed Nassib as the No. 1 quarterback and player in last year's draft class. Our own Josh Norris prefers at least four quarterbacks in the 2014 group to Nassib.


Source: Russ Lande on Twitter

I will remind everyone to keep in mind that Russ Lande was the guy who ranked Nassib last year as the # 1 prospect in the 2013 NFL draft when Russ was still a member of the National Football Post team.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Some really good performances in week 1 PS:

Ryan Griffin - Saints

Kellen Moore - Lions

Logan Thomas - Cards

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

One more - Nassib has been looking pretty good. Actually I wonder if maybe the Bills shouldn't have picked him after all, he would have come at a cheaper price than Manuel that's for sure.

 

[Adam Harstad]

None of the QB's in this thread are even worth a roster spot IMO. (maybe, and it's a stretch, in a 2 QB league)

How has no one mentioned the only rookie that will actually be starting? EJ Manuel is probably the only QB I would draft from this class. Doubt he does well this year, but he has fantastic physical traits.

Oz will be a career backup in denver.

I think it's crazy to suggest that no backup QB in the NFL today is worth being rostered. If we were making a list of backups worth rostering this time last year, it would have included Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. In other years, it might have included Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. Looking at the top 20 fantasy QBs of the last decade, 17 of the 20 began their careers as backups (Brees, Brady, Eli, Roeth, Palmer, McNabb, Hasselbeck, Favre, Rivers, Romo, Rodgers, Vick, Cutler, Schaub, Bulger, Delhomme), with the exceptions being Peyton, Ryan, and Flacco. Looking at the top 20 QBs in points per game gets us a few more week 1 starters, but it also gives us five guys in the top 20 (Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Warner, Romo) who were scheduled to be a backup QB on opening day for at least two years before getting the starting job. Those guys hold five league MVP trophies between them.

I think odds are very high that at least one guy who is currently a backup quarterback will wind up having a monstrous fantasy career. I would much rather roster a high-upside backup like Osweiler or Mallet than a known mediocrity like Carson Palmer.

Virtually all the guys you listed were high draft picks and were being groomed. Sorry I just don't see any of the current backups in the league being worth a damn. One or two may eventually turn into a bye week replacement type guy, but that's it. QB depth in the league is just ridiculously poor right now.

A lot of those guys were high draft picks being groomed, yes. Brock Osweiler is a high draft pick being groomed. Mallett and Foles were both 3rd rounders who were presumably drafted to eventually take over for an aging starter. I'm not advocating grabbing every backup in the league, I'm advocating some of the guys who have solid pedigree and who seem to have positive buzz around the league (KC tried to trade for Foles, Mallett will probably get a starting job on the open market, Osweiler was drafted and has been spoken about as the heir apparent). Throw in Cousins, who was a slightly later pick, but who seems to be well-regarded around the league and who has some great game film (similar to a young Matt Schaub in Atlanta), and I think there are four backups in the league who are reasonable fits for the profile of the breakout star QB.And, again, if this conversation had played out a year ago, everyone would be talking about Colin Kaepernick the exact same way. He was a 2nd round NFL pick, but because he was a backup, he was an afterthought. I got him as a free agent in most of my leagues. I even felt comfortable enough to expose him to the waiver wire for a week during byes if I needed the roster spot. Nobody in my leagues thought he was even worth owning, and now he's a consensus top-10 dynasty QB. As I said, I think the odds are exceptionally high that there's a backup in the NFL right this very moment who few people even consider worth owning, but who will become a consensus top-10 dynasty QB in the next couple of years. My money is one one or two from the Osweiler/Mallett/Foles/Cousins foursome. Maybe it's someone slightly more off the radar, like a Graham Harrell or a Chase Daniels or a Colt McCoy. Maybe it's a complete and total shocker, like a Jimmy Clausen or a Dennis Dixon. The idea that the 32 men who currently hold starting jobs in the NFL are the only ones who have a shot at fantasy stardom, though, is an idea that has repeatedly been proven wrong throughout history.

I'm certainly biased, because I've made an absolute killing in the backup QB market over the years. Yes, speculation will certainly leave you wasting roster spots on your share of Sage Rosenfelses, Chad Hennes, Billy Voleks, Charlie Whitehursts, and Joe Webbs. That's an inevitability- most of the backups you roster are going to be worthless and a complete waste of whatever capital you spent to acquire and hold them, not least of which is the roster spot you devoted to them. On other occasions, drafting backups will yield very modest returns that at least let you break even- think of your Matt Flynns and your Kevin Kolbs. Sometimes, though, drafting and holding backup QBs will yield an absolute grand-slam of value. I've mentioned Colin Kaepernick, and if Kaepernick was the only hit I'd had when trolling among the backups, his value today alone would have recouped all of my investments over the years and then some... but Kaepernick was far from the only hit. I owned Michael Vick in 75% of my leagues in 2010 when he was the most valuable player in all of fantasy football. I owned Aaron Rodgers in 33% of of my leagues in 2008. I started dynasty in 2007, but was in keeper leagues prior to that, and was in a position where I was keeping Matt Schaub and Philip Rivers for 20th round draft picks because I'd had the foresight to draft and hold them a year early.

Success stories like these aren't the norm- maybe 75-80% of the backup QBs you roster are going to return bupkis- but they're common enough, and each individual success is so hugely valuable that it easily offsets a half dozen failures. And over the past two decades, drafting highly-regarded backups has been a much more fruitful strategy than drafting lightly-regarded starters- it's been several times more likely to yield a perennial top-12 fantasy QB. So once the top 20-25 QBs are off the board, and your choices are between a talented backup or a guy like Christian Ponder or Carson Palmer or Kevin Kolb or Blaine Gabbert- a guy who has a starting job, but who we are pretty sure isn't all that good- the backup is more likely to yield dividends. In a 12-team league, unless each team only rosters 2 QBs, these top backups absolutely should be rostered. They might not be, but they should be.

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

 

[MAC_32]

Some really good performances in week 1 PS:

Ryan Griffin - Saints

Kellen Moore - Lions

Logan Thomas - Cards

arm strength is over rated, but you have to have some. Moore does not.The other two may have legs though.

 

[cstu]

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

Where's Garappolo?

 

[Tool]

None of the QB's in this thread are even worth a roster spot IMO. (maybe, and it's a stretch, in a 2 QB league)

How has no one mentioned the only rookie that will actually be starting? EJ Manuel is probably the only QB I would draft from this class. Doubt he does well this year, but he has fantastic physical traits.

Oz will be a career backup in denver.

I think it's crazy to suggest that no backup QB in the NFL today is worth being rostered. If we were making a list of backups worth rostering this time last year, it would have included Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. In other years, it might have included Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. Looking at the top 20 fantasy QBs of the last decade, 17 of the 20 began their careers as backups (Brees, Brady, Eli, Roeth, Palmer, McNabb, Hasselbeck, Favre, Rivers, Romo, Rodgers, Vick, Cutler, Schaub, Bulger, Delhomme), with the exceptions being Peyton, Ryan, and Flacco. Looking at the top 20 QBs in points per game gets us a few more week 1 starters, but it also gives us five guys in the top 20 (Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Warner, Romo) who were scheduled to be a backup QB on opening day for at least two years before getting the starting job. Those guys hold five league MVP trophies between them.

I think odds are very high that at least one guy who is currently a backup quarterback will wind up having a monstrous fantasy career. I would much rather roster a high-upside backup like Osweiler or Mallet than a known mediocrity like Carson Palmer.

Virtually all the guys you listed were high draft picks and were being groomed. Sorry I just don't see any of the current backups in the league being worth a damn. One or two may eventually turn into a bye week replacement type guy, but that's it. QB depth in the league is just ridiculously poor right now.

A lot of those guys were high draft picks being groomed, yes. Brock Osweiler is a high draft pick being groomed. Mallett and Foles were both 3rd rounders who were presumably drafted to eventually take over for an aging starter. I'm not advocating grabbing every backup in the league, I'm advocating some of the guys who have solid pedigree and who seem to have positive buzz around the league (KC tried to trade for Foles, Mallett will probably get a starting job on the open market, Osweiler was drafted and has been spoken about as the heir apparent). Throw in Cousins, who was a slightly later pick, but who seems to be well-regarded around the league and who has some great game film (similar to a young Matt Schaub in Atlanta), and I think there are four backups in the league who are reasonable fits for the profile of the breakout star QB.And, again, if this conversation had played out a year ago, everyone would be talking about Colin Kaepernick the exact same way. He was a 2nd round NFL pick, but because he was a backup, he was an afterthought. I got him as a free agent in most of my leagues. I even felt comfortable enough to expose him to the waiver wire for a week during byes if I needed the roster spot. Nobody in my leagues thought he was even worth owning, and now he's a consensus top-10 dynasty QB. As I said, I think the odds are exceptionally high that there's a backup in the NFL right this very moment who few people even consider worth owning, but who will become a consensus top-10 dynasty QB in the next couple of years. My money is one one or two from the Osweiler/Mallett/Foles/Cousins foursome. Maybe it's someone slightly more off the radar, like a Graham Harrell or a Chase Daniels or a Colt McCoy. Maybe it's a complete and total shocker, like a Jimmy Clausen or a Dennis Dixon. The idea that the 32 men who currently hold starting jobs in the NFL are the only ones who have a shot at fantasy stardom, though, is an idea that has repeatedly been proven wrong throughout history.

I'm certainly biased, because I've made an absolute killing in the backup QB market over the years. Yes, speculation will certainly leave you wasting roster spots on your share of Sage Rosenfelses, Chad Hennes, Billy Voleks, Charlie Whitehursts, and Joe Webbs. That's an inevitability- most of the backups you roster are going to be worthless and a complete waste of whatever capital you spent to acquire and hold them, not least of which is the roster spot you devoted to them. On other occasions, drafting backups will yield very modest returns that at least let you break even- think of your Matt Flynns and your Kevin Kolbs. Sometimes, though, drafting and holding backup QBs will yield an absolute grand-slam of value. I've mentioned Colin Kaepernick, and if Kaepernick was the only hit I'd had when trolling among the backups, his value today alone would have recouped all of my investments over the years and then some... but Kaepernick was far from the only hit. I owned Michael Vick in 75% of my leagues in 2010 when he was the most valuable player in all of fantasy football. I owned Aaron Rodgers in 33% of of my leagues in 2008. I started dynasty in 2007, but was in keeper leagues prior to that, and was in a position where I was keeping Matt Schaub and Philip Rivers for 20th round draft picks because I'd had the foresight to draft and hold them a year early.

Success stories like these aren't the norm- maybe 75-80% of the backup QBs you roster are going to return bupkis- but they're common enough, and each individual success is so hugely valuable that it easily offsets a half dozen failures. And over the past two decades, drafting highly-regarded backups has been a much more fruitful strategy than drafting lightly-regarded starters- it's been several times more likely to yield a perennial top-12 fantasy QB. So once the top 20-25 QBs are off the board, and your choices are between a talented backup or a guy like Christian Ponder or Carson Palmer or Kevin Kolb or Blaine Gabbert- a guy who has a starting job, but who we are pretty sure isn't all that good- the backup is more likely to yield dividends. In a 12-team league, unless each team only rosters 2 QBs, these top backups absolutely should be rostered. They might not be, but they should be.

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

If i were a betting man, i'd bet against that.

 

[John Paul]

Nassib, Garoppolo and Savage.

 

[ex-ghost]

Pryor looks like garbage, he needs some serious work.

 

[MAC_32]

Pryor looks like garbage, he needs some serious work.

is this signed 2014, 2013, 2012, or what?

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

Where's Garappolo?

I traded Glennon and a future second to get into the late second this year and draft Garappolo in a 12 team Superflex. Not as high on Glennon as Harstad is but I'd put Garappolo in tier 1 and probably bump Glennon down.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Digging deeper, I'd say Mark Sanchez in his next stop. Team and the player need a fresh start.

Given he costs absolutely nothing at this point, he's one guy I wouldn't mind as a QB4.

I have a hard time thinking of too many backups/situations I prefer to him. Would be real interesting if Foles did happen to go down. A lot more surrounding offensive talent at his disposal.

 

[ex-ghost]

Pryor looks like garbage, he needs some serious work.

is this signed 2014, 2013, 2012, or what?

Signed,

2014 and beyond

 

[thriftyrocker]

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

Shocked you put Cousins that low. Nothing's changed since he stepped in last year. I loaded up nfl.com to see his stats from this week's preseason and there's an article "Cousins outplaying RG3." The only reason to prefer Carr or Mallet is getting to see them suck sooner. Mallet's really done nothing to deserve the hype he's gotten.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Given he costs absolutely nothing at this point, he's one guy I wouldn't mind as a QB4.

I have a hard time thinking of too many backups/situations I prefer to him. Would be real interesting if Foles did happen to go down. A lot more surrounding offensive talent at his disposal.

The two free backups I prioritized this year were Sanchez and Thad Lewis. Sanchez looks the part. He is fitting the system well, and I think he will be startable if Foles got hurt. He's still Sanchez, but for short term stats and the chance to sell high, he's worth a roster spot. Thad is still battling with Tuel, and his upside is quite a bit lower, so he's probably churnable.

I also added Fales just because somehow he didn't get drafted, but now will probably churn him for Clausen. Both J. Palmer and Clausen played well and Palmer played ahead of him. Whoever backs up Cutler is worth rostering in SF/2QB.

 

[Donnybrook]

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

Tier 0.5 - Ryan Griffin

 

[Adam Harstad]

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

Where's Garappolo?

Total oversight. I had him on the list, but I was shuffling names between the tiers and I must have accidentally deleted him. He's in tier 2 for me.

 

[Adam Harstad]

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

If i were a betting man, i'd bet against that.

A lot of people bet against that last year when the list included Nick Foles and two years ago when the list included Colin Kaepernick. Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, and Brady were opening-day backups for at least two seasons. Drew Brees was a backup to start his career, and then saw his cost drop as people thought he'd be a backup again after Rivers was drafted. Mike Vick was a backup to start out in Atlanta and a backup again to start out in Philadelphia. Russell Wilson was available at a discount at this time during his rookie year because people thought he'd be backing up Flynn. Even a guy like Matt Cassell once flirted with top-10 dynasty value.

History tells us that the stars of tomorrow are incredibly likely to be the backups of today. Again, just look through the beginning of this thread and see how many people were ragging on the possibility that Nick Foles might be a fantasy star, saying he wasn't even worth rostering in 2QB leagues. As of right now, that looks like a pretty brutal collection of names... but if we're given the benefit of three years worth of hindsight, I think there are going to be at least a couple names that jump off that list as massive, massive bargains.

 

[ex-ghost]

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

Where's Garappolo?

Total oversight. I had him on the list, but I was shuffling names between the tiers and I must have accidentally deleted him. He's in tier 2 for me.

Not a fan of Ryan Griffin? Behind an ironman does stifle his chances, but he sure has looked good so far.

 

[Adam Harstad]

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

Shocked you put Cousins that low. Nothing's changed since he stepped in last year. I loaded up nfl.com to see his stats from this week's preseason and there's an article "Cousins outplaying RG3." The only reason to prefer Carr or Mallet is getting to see them suck sooner. Mallet's really done nothing to deserve the hype he's gotten.

Cousins looked atrocious in game action last year. Like, brutally bad. That's not a death-knell (Aaron Rodgers was just abysmal in his first two preseasons, and he turned out okay I guess)- I mean, Cousins still makes my "backups worth rostering" list, so obviously I still like him. Mallett has also looked pretty bad when given a chance, but I believe he's going to be getting a starting job at least one year and possibly two years earlier than Cousins. I debated a lot on whether to drop Mallett into tier 3, where I think he kind of belongs, but as long as the possibility exists that he might be traded before the season, I think he's a bit ahead of those other tier 3 guys. I almost split the baby and created a "tier 2.5" just for Mallett.

 

[cstu]

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

Shocked you put Cousins that low. Nothing's changed since he stepped in last year. I loaded up nfl.com to see his stats from this week's preseason and there's an article "Cousins outplaying RG3." The only reason to prefer Carr or Mallet is getting to see them suck sooner. Mallet's really done nothing to deserve the hype he's gotten.

Cousins looked atrocious in game action last year. Like, brutally bad. That's not a death-knell (Aaron Rodgers was just abysmal in his first two preseasons, and he turned out okay I guess)- I mean, Cousins still makes my "backups worth rostering" list, so obviously I still like him. Mallett has also looked pretty bad when given a chance, but I believe he's going to be getting a starting job at least one year and possibly two years earlier than Cousins. I debated a lot on whether to drop Mallett into tier 3, where I think he kind of belongs, but as long as the possibility exists that he might be traded before the season, I think he's a bit ahead of those other tier 3 guys. I almost split the baby and created a "tier 2.5" just for Mallett.

I'm a believer in "good backup QB's get traded". Of course bad QB's get traded too but I have a hard time believing that Mallett is a future starting QB and no one wanted to pony up a pick for him. I've at least read that the Browns offered a 4th for Cousins but haven't heard anything about an offer for Mallett. It could be that the Pats' asking price for Mallett is simply too high but I'm inclined to think that he's just not valued around the league.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Not a fan of Ryan Griffin? Behind an ironman does stifle his chances, but he sure has looked good so far.

Typically I'm looking for guys who were drafted in the first 3 rounds who are still on their first contract. That's the gold standard for a QB stash. Griffin was an undrafted rookie who spent time on a practice squad with no one else in the league expressing any interest in him. He's reportedly embroiled in a heated battle with Luke McCown- aka the BAD McCown brother- for the backup job. These are all negative indicators for me.

Now, Griffin looked really good in very limited action against another team's backups in preseason, and he also reportedly had a strong scrimmage. These are positive indicators, but pretty weak ones. The top 5 QBs by passing yards last preseason were Pat Devlin, Case Keenum, Matt Simms, Dominique Davis, and Ryan Mallett. The top QBs by passer rating (looking strictly at the backups) were Tarvaris Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kirk Cousins, T.J. Yates, Shaun Hill, G.J. Kinne, and... Luke McCown (he was 32/49 for 378 with 4 TD and 1 INT last preseason).

Basically, when I'm rostering backups, I want pedigree, but I'll be willing to waive that requirement a bit if there's a clear path to playing time. Ryan Griffin has neither, and a some good camps and a solid preseason performance won't be enough to get me to roster him indefinitely in any except for the very deepest of leagues imaginable.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm a believer in "good backup QB's get traded". Of course bad QB's get traded too but I have a hard time believing that Mallett is a future starting QB and no one wanted to pony up a pick for him. I've at least read that the Browns offered a 4th for Cousins but haven't heard anything about an offer for Mallett. It could be that the Pats' asking price for Mallett is simply too high but I'm inclined to think that he's just not valued around the league.

Yeah, like I said, I'm not really all that high on Mallett- he ranks where he ranks almost exclusively on the back of his urgency score. I have less faith in his ability to ever amount to anything worthwhile than pretty much anyone else on that list... but at the same time, I'll know for sure whether he amounts to anything worthwhile a lot sooner than pretty much anyone else on that list, too. Even if he doesn't get traded this offseason- and he probably won't- he's a free agent and we'll learn an awful lot about what the league thinks about him when we see what kind of contract he gets.

 

[Donnybrook]

Not a fan of Ryan Griffin? Behind an ironman does stifle his chances, but he sure has looked good so far.

Typically I'm looking for guys who were drafted in the first 3 rounds who are still on their first contract. That's the gold standard for a QB stash. Griffin was an undrafted rookie who spent time on a practice squad with no one else in the league expressing any interest in him. He's reportedly embroiled in a heated battle with Luke McCown- aka the BAD McCown brother- for the backup job. These are all negative indicators for me.

Now, Griffin looked really good in very limited action against another team's backups in preseason, and he also reportedly had a strong scrimmage. These are positive indicators, but pretty weak ones. The top 5 QBs by passing yards last preseason were Pat Devlin, Case Keenum, Matt Simms, Dominique Davis, and Ryan Mallett. The top QBs by passer rating (looking strictly at the backups) were Tarvaris Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kirk Cousins, T.J. Yates, Shaun Hill, G.J. Kinne, and... Luke McCown (he was 32/49 for 378 with 4 TD and 1 INT last preseason).

Basically, when I'm rostering backups, I want pedigree, but I'll be willing to waive that requirement a bit if there's a clear path to playing time. Ryan Griffin has neither, and a some good camps and a solid preseason performance won't be enough to get me to roster him indefinitely in any except for the very deepest of leagues imaginable.

The truth is the Rams tried to sign Griffin after Bradford was injured in week 7. New Orleans blocked the move by choosing to sign him to its own active roster. http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/10278/rams-will-get-a-look-at-qb-that-almost-was

 

[Tool]

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

If i were a betting man, i'd bet against that.

A lot of people bet against that last year when the list included Nick Foles and two years ago when the list included Colin Kaepernick. Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, and Brady were opening-day backups for at least two seasons. Drew Brees was a backup to start his career, and then saw his cost drop as people thought he'd be a backup again after Rivers was drafted. Mike Vick was a backup to start out in Atlanta and a backup again to start out in Philadelphia. Russell Wilson was available at a discount at this time during his rookie year because people thought he'd be backing up Flynn. Even a guy like Matt Cassell once flirted with top-10 dynasty value.

History tells us that the stars of tomorrow are incredibly likely to be the backups of today. Again, just look through the beginning of this thread and see how many people were ragging on the possibility that Nick Foles might be a fantasy star, saying he wasn't even worth rostering in 2QB leagues. As of right now, that looks like a pretty brutal collection of names... but if we're given the benefit of three years worth of hindsight, I think there are going to be at least a couple names that jump off that list as massive, massive bargains.

Of the guys you listed most were top prospects. Brady and Romo are two extreme examples from the past 20 years. Is it possible? sure. I just don't see it as likely with that list.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The truth is the Rams tried to sign Griffin after Bradford was injured in week 7. New Orleans blocked the move by choosing to sign him to its own active roster. http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/10278/rams-will-get-a-look-at-qb-that-almost-was

Thanks Donny, I'd missed that! I'm still not that high on Griffin, since undrafted guys becoming stars are still the exception and not the rule, but it's a good sign that another team at least showed an interest.

 

[Adam Harstad]

You can add Nick Foles to that list of success stories, now.

This year's backup QBs to roster (aside from the obvious Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel picks):

Tier 1- Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon

Tier 2- Ryan Nassib, Derek Carr, Ryan Mallett

Tier 3- Kirk Cousins, Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Terrelle Pryor

At least two of the names on that list will one day be top-10 dynasty QBs.

If i were a betting man, i'd bet against that.

A lot of people bet against that last year when the list included Nick Foles and two years ago when the list included Colin Kaepernick. Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, and Brady were opening-day backups for at least two seasons. Drew Brees was a backup to start his career, and then saw his cost drop as people thought he'd be a backup again after Rivers was drafted. Mike Vick was a backup to start out in Atlanta and a backup again to start out in Philadelphia. Russell Wilson was available at a discount at this time during his rookie year because people thought he'd be backing up Flynn. Even a guy like Matt Cassell once flirted with top-10 dynasty value.

History tells us that the stars of tomorrow are incredibly likely to be the backups of today. Again, just look through the beginning of this thread and see how many people were ragging on the possibility that Nick Foles might be a fantasy star, saying he wasn't even worth rostering in 2QB leagues. As of right now, that looks like a pretty brutal collection of names... but if we're given the benefit of three years worth of hindsight, I think there are going to be at least a couple names that jump off that list as massive, massive bargains.

Of the guys you listed most were top prospects. Brady and Romo are two extreme examples from the past 20 years. Is it possible? sure. I just don't see it as likely with that list.

It's funny, people used this exact argument against me last year when I mentioned Nick Foles. Like, this exact argument.

Colin Kaepernick was a 2nd rounder behind an entrenched starter. Nick Foles was a 3rd rounder. Brees was a 2nd rounder, as was Brett Favre. Matt Schaub was a 3rd rounder. Michael Vick was a high draft pick, but had... erm... fallen into disfavor by the time he signed with the Eagles. Russell Wilson was a 3rd rounder. This is why I try to target guys who were drafted in the first 3 rounds and who are still on their first contract, because that's the profile. Of the ten names I provided, Osweiler (2nd), Glennon (3rd), Mallett (3rd), Carr (2nd), and Garoppolo (2nd) all fit the profile to a tee. Logan Thomas (4th), Tom Savage (4th), Kirk Cousins (4th), and Ryan Nassib (4th) all just miss out on the profile, but they've either had some positive play (Cousins), earned a lot of buzz (Nassib), or have an easy enough path to playing time (Thomas, Savage) that I stretched the profile a little bit to include them, but that's why none of them made it into Tier 1 with Osweiler and Glennon. And the tenth name on the list, Terrelle Pryor, is only there because rushing quarterbacks are so overvalued in fantasy. Guys like Vince Young, Tim Tebow, and Kordell Stewart were awesome fantasy quarterbacks despite being terrible NFL quarterbacks. He's a pure "why the heck not?" upside play. Maybe Pete Carroll fixes him like Jim Harbaugh fixed Alex Smith. Maybe not. I'd only burn a roster spot on him in the very deepest of leagues, but I'll at least be keeping an eye on him from week to week for positive signs.

Individually, I think all of these guys are longshots. Maybe they have a 25% chance each of ever amounting to anything. Collectively, though... based on league history, we can feel pretty confident that a couple of guys that are currently backups will wind up being quality starters down the road. Looking at all the backups, those guys look like the cream of the crop, the ones most likely to take that next step at some point.

Edit: aside from the obvious Manziel/Bridgewater/Bortles trio, of course. Though if you can get those guys for a discount because they're currently backups, by all means do so.

 

[jurb26]

It's funny, people used this exact argument against me last year when I mentioned Nick Foles. Like, this exact argument.

Colin Kaepernick was a 2nd rounder behind an entrenched starter. Nick Foles was a 3rd rounder. Brees was a 2nd rounder, as was Brett Favre. Matt Schaub was a 3rd rounder. Michael Vick was a high draft pick, but had... erm... fallen into disfavor by the time he signed with the Eagles. Russell Wilson was a 3rd rounder. This is why I try to target guys who were drafted in the first 3 rounds and who are still on their first contract, because that's the profile. Of the ten names I provided, Osweiler (2nd), Glennon (3rd), Mallett (3rd), Carr (2nd), and Garoppolo (2nd) all fit the profile to a tee. Logan Thomas (4th), Tom Savage (4th), Kirk Cousins (4th), and Ryan Nassib (4th) all just miss out on the profile, but they've either had some positive play (Cousins), earned a lot of buzz (Nassib), or have an easy enough path to playing time (Thomas, Savage) that I stretched the profile a little bit to include them, but that's why none of them made it into Tier 1 with Osweiler and Glennon. And the tenth name on the list, Terrelle Pryor, is only there because rushing quarterbacks are so overvalued in fantasy. Guys like Vince Young, Tim Tebow, and Kordell Stewart were awesome fantasy quarterbacks despite being terrible NFL quarterbacks. He's a pure "why the heck not?" upside play. Maybe Pete Carroll fixes him like Jim Harbaugh fixed Alex Smith. Maybe not. I'd only burn a roster spot on him in the very deepest of leagues, but I'll at least be keeping an eye on him from week to week for positive signs.

Individually, I think all of these guys are longshots. Maybe they have a 25% chance each of ever amounting to anything. Collectively, though... based on league history, we can feel pretty confident that a couple of guys that are currently backups will wind up being quality starters down the road. Looking at all the backups, those guys look like the cream of the crop, the ones most likely to take that next step at some point.

Edit: aside from the obvious Manziel/Bridgewater/Bortles trio, of course. Though if you can get those guys for a discount because they're currently backups, by all means do so.

Very well said and excellent post. It's funny that I've never really put THIS much thought into it but I've inherently been trying to aquire Osweiller and Glennon in pretty much all my dynasty leagues. I've been pretty successful thus far. I just know I like their game and think they will eventually be starters in the NFL.

This certainly helps me feel better about it though.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Very well said and excellent post.

It's funny that I've never really put THIS much thought into it but I've inherently been trying to aquire Osweiller and Glennon in pretty much all my dynasty leagues. I've been pretty successful thus far. I just know I like their game and think they will eventually be starters in the NFL.

This certainly helps me feel better about it though.

I have one dynasty league where my top three quarterbacks right now are Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, and Nick Foles. I would think the league would start catching on to the strategy eventually, but I just got Mike Glennon as a complete and total throw-in. Meaning he didn't even cost me anything, I just had a trade in place and said "hey, would you mind adding Glennon?" and the other guy just said "sure, why not." Osweiler, Nassib, and Mallett are still available on waivers (the only thing preventing me from adding them is the fact that I don't want to roster 8 quarterbacks...) We will have our rookie draft in a couple of weeks, but based on league history, I'd bet dollars to donuts that at least two and likely three of Carr, Garoppolo, Savage, and Thomas go undrafted. It's a deep league- there are 41 quarterbacks currently rostered, though several of those guys will undoubtedly be cut once room is needed for rookie draft picks. The league is filled with reasonably sharp owners, though most of them aren't quite the degenerates that most of us are. They just completely miss out on what kind of quarterbacks they should be rostering. One owner has Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Christian Ponder, and Mark Sanchez. His starter is Tony Romo, so it's not like he just needs some kind of starter to roll out on a weekly basis. He should be rostering QBs for upside, but he instead opts for known mediocrities with a clear path to a starting job. Blaine Gabbert still has a roster spot. The Aaron Rodgers owner opted to handcuff him with Matt Flynn. Matt McGloin and Josh Freeman are both rostered. One owner has Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, and he opted to back them up with Andy Dalton and Matt Schaub, two low-ceiling mediocrities who will never crack his starting lineup. Again, these are pretty good owners, it's just that, like you, most owners don't devote much brain space to their backup QB. Unfortunately, unlike you, most owners don't intuitively stumble on what the right kind of backup really is. I imagine if everyone looked at their leagues, they'd see similar patterns- low-upside known mediocrities rostered as QB3s, quality prospects forgotten and available on waivers, etc. Just because a guy is one of 32 starting NFL quarterbacks doesn't mean he's one of the top 32 dynasty quarterbacks, and vice versa. Right now, the way the market prices backup quarterbacks (essentially making them available for free) is an inefficiency. Inefficiencies can (and should) be exploited for big profit gains.

I often say that the most common error in dynasty is simply a failure of imagination; people assume that how things are is how things will continue to be, despite abundant historical evidence to the contrary.

I mean, even I look at that list of names I provided and say "blech". It's really hard to get excited about Ryan Nassib. But when it comes time to devoting end-of-bench roster spots to a quarterback, guys who are similar to Ryan Nassib provide a much higher return on investment than guys who are similar to Carson Palmer. It's not even close. Yeah, I waste a lot of time rostering guys like Colt McCoy and Sage Rosenfels and Matt Flynn and Kevin Kolb (although those last two would have at least provided positive returns at one point). But I'd much rather have a low probability shot at huge value than a high-probability shot at getting a consistently below-replacement player. At this point, Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Cassell and Brian Hoyer are who we thought they were. Don't let them off the hook.

 

[ORC]

Very well said and excellent post.

It's funny that I've never really put THIS much thought into it but I've inherently been trying to aquire Osweiller and Glennon in pretty much all my dynasty leagues. I've been pretty successful thus far. I just know I like their game and think they will eventually be starters in the NFL.

This certainly helps me feel better about it though.

I have one dynasty league where my top three quarterbacks right now are Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, and Nick Foles. I would think the league would start catching on to the strategy eventually, but I just got Mike Glennon as a complete and total throw-in. Meaning he didn't even cost me anything, I just had a trade in place and said "hey, would you mind adding Glennon?" and the other guy just said "sure, why not." Osweiler, Nassib, and Mallett are still available on waivers (the only thing preventing me from adding them is the fact that I don't want to roster 8 quarterbacks...) We will have our rookie draft in a couple of weeks, but based on league history, I'd bet dollars to donuts that at least two and likely three of Carr, Garoppolo, Savage, and Thomas go undrafted. It's a deep league- there are 41 quarterbacks currently rostered, though several of those guys will undoubtedly be cut once room is needed for rookie draft picks. The league is filled with reasonably sharp owners, though most of them aren't quite the degenerates that most of us are. They just completely miss out on what kind of quarterbacks they should be rostering. One owner has Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Christian Ponder, and Mark Sanchez. His starter is Tony Romo, so it's not like he just needs some kind of starter to roll out on a weekly basis. He should be rostering QBs for upside, but he instead opts for known mediocrities with a clear path to a starting job. Blaine Gabbert still has a roster spot. The Aaron Rodgers owner opted to handcuff him with Matt Flynn. Matt McGloin and Josh Freeman are both rostered. One owner has Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, and he opted to back them up with Andy Dalton and Matt Schaub, two low-ceiling mediocrities who will never crack his starting lineup. Again, these are pretty good owners, it's just that, like you, most owners don't devote much brain space to their backup QB. Unfortunately, unlike you, most owners don't intuitively stumble on what the right kind of backup really is. I imagine if everyone looked at their leagues, they'd see similar patterns- low-upside known mediocrities rostered as QB3s, quality prospects forgotten and available on waivers, etc. Just because a guy is one of 32 starting NFL quarterbacks doesn't mean he's one of the top 32 dynasty quarterbacks, and vice versa. Right now, the way the market prices backup quarterbacks (essentially making them available for free) is an inefficiency. Inefficiencies can (and should) be exploited for big profit gains.

I often say that the most common error in dynasty is simply a failure of imagination; people assume that how things are is how things will continue to be, despite abundant historical evidence to the contrary.

I mean, even I look at that list of names I provided and say "blech". It's really hard to get excited about Ryan Nassib. But when it comes time to devoting end-of-bench roster spots to a quarterback, guys who are similar to Ryan Nassib provide a much higher return on investment than guys who are similar to Carson Palmer. It's not even close. Yeah, I waste a lot of time rostering guys like Colt McCoy and Sage Rosenfels and Matt Flynn and Kevin Kolb (although those last two would have at least provided positive returns at one point). But I'd much rather have a low probability shot at huge value than a high-probability shot at getting a consistently below-replacement player. At this point, Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Cassell and Brian Hoyer are who we thought they were. Don't let them off the hook.

Definitely agree with the thought process. The difficulty is execution. If you're stuck with one of these "they are who we thought they were" guys, who do you trade them for? It's difficult if you're currently relying on one of those guys to just flat out trade them straight up for Glennon, Osweiler, Carr, or Nassib. If you're in a 2 QB league for example with Hoyer as your #2, are you going to trade him straight up for Nassib? And if you're the guy who is stashing Nassib, why would you trade for Hoyer if he's not startable for you?

I certainly agree that rostering the type of player you describe is advantageous, but I disagree with the premise that a lot of these guys are available for almost free. If you're trading a Schaub/Dalton for a player at a different position and want to get one of these backup QBs as a throw in, that might be your best bet.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Definitely agree with the thought process. The difficulty is execution. If you're stuck with one of these "they are who we thought they were" guys, who do you trade them for? It's difficult if you're currently relying on one of those guys to just flat out trade them straight up for Glennon, Osweiler, Carr, or Nassib. If you're in a 2 QB league for example with Hoyer as your #2, are you going to trade him straight up for Nassib? And if you're the guy who is stashing Nassib, why would you trade for Hoyer if he's not startable for you?

I certainly agree that rostering the type of player you describe is advantageous, but I disagree with the premise that a lot of these guys are available for almost free. If you're trading a Schaub/Dalton for a player at a different position and want to get one of these backup QBs as a throw in, that might be your best bet.

2QB leagues dramatically change the calculus. Known mediocrities like Carson Palmer and Alex Smith are legit every-week starters in that format. I'll gladly roster a bunch of low-upside guys for no reason other than that they have a starting job (for however long they can hold it.)

I'm talking about 1QB leagues. If you have absolutely nothing at quarterback, guys like Palmer and Alex Smith have value out of sheer necessity. If your top quarterback is someone like Tony Romo, it sometimes pays to roster a low-upside backup like Joe Flacco or Eli Manning just so an injury doesn't leave you absolutely hosed at the position. In my mind, though, there's no excuse to ever roster a low-upside, proven mediocrity like Matt Schaub as your QB3. Your 3rd QB is a developmental position, so use it on someone who actually has a chance to develop.

Good luck trading one of those "they are who we thought they were" guys. Nobody will ever give anything for them, which should be a clue about their true value. If I'm in a position where Carson Palmer is my QB3, I would cut him straight up for Mike Glennon and not lose a wink of sleep over it.

 

[SelenaCat]

Where's Garappolo?

Out of curiosity, what's the assumption on how long Brady will remain a starting-caliber QB (primarily fantasy, but for NFL as well)?

 

[ex-ghost]

Another great showing by Griffin.

 

[cstu]

Where's Garappolo?

Out of curiosity, what's the assumption on how long Brady will remain a starting-caliber QB (primarily fantasy, but for NFL as well)?

I'm on this tiny little island that thinks Brady gets traded before he retires.

 

[LususV]

I'm stashing Mark Sanchez in deeper superflex and 2 QB leagues. No joke.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Everybody Get On The Connor Shaw Hype TrainLet’s stop flipping out about Johnny Manziel flipping people off for a second and consider how he did football-wise yesterday in his second preseason game: 7 of 16 for 65 yards and a touchdown. He ran once, for -1 yards. He was sacked three times.

How about his competitor for the starting job, last year’s sorta-sensation (in that he was decent) Brian Hoyer? Hoyer went 2 of 6 for 16 yards. Sacked once.

Now check out the stat line for third-or-maybe-even-fourth-string-quarterback-depending-on-where-Rex-Grossman-falls, Connor Shaw, an undrafted rookie out of South Carolina (keeping in mind it was against Washington’s third-string defense): 8 of 9 for 123 yards and a touchdown, a last-second Hail Mary that probably could have gone either way:

That’s pretty good. He didn’t convert the two-point conversion, but he made things interesting.

Here’s what else you should know about Shaw: He had a best record as a quarterback in Gamecocks history; he was the MVP of the 2014 Capital One Bowl against Wisconsin; he had the fastest 40-yard-dash time of any QB at the combine — yes, better than Manziel. His biggest knocks are arm strength and durability, though he did come off the bench with a sprained knee to help South Carolina come back from 17 down and beat the fifth-ranked Missouri Tigers last season, so there’s that.

Is the title of Browns QB (and the honor of having your name added to this jersey) now a three-way race? Realistically, Shaw has no shot of unseating either Hoyer or Manziel from the starting job. But while those two had mostly ineffectual nights behind center, Shaw looked composed in the pocket and showed flashes of Manziel-esque mobility when he had to.

Either our expectations for what a Browns QB can do are ridiculously low, or this guy is actually capable of being an NFL player. Let’s all get on the Connor Shaw hype train, if only to make Cleveland’s already circus-like atmosphere even more ridiculous. It’s mid-August — what else is there to do?

By the way, Colt McCoy threw a touchdown for Washington last night, and Robert Griffin III didn’t, so I guess McCoy should get the start over RGIII in Week 1, too.

http://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/everybody-get-on-the-connor-shaw-hype-train/

I'd like to see more of Connor Shaw. Maybe he's done for the preseason, not sure, but I thought he looked pretty confident and showed quick release and decision making vs the Redskins.

 

[Faust]

Greg Cosell's NFL Preview: Breaking down the rookie quarterbacks

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-s-nfl-preview--breaking-down-the-rookie-quarterbacks-164847540.html

 

[Tornacl]

I know he doesn't fit your profile exactly due to being drafted in the sixth round, but did the pre-season change your opinion on Mettenberger? His stock likely fell in the draft due to his injury, but there were a lot of people who thought he was one of the best QBs in this class. Like many of the others on the list, he is waiver wire material in most leagues (at least he's available in all four of the dynasty leagues I'm in).

All he has in front of him long-term is the questionable Jake Locker. (I know he is listed as 3rd right now, but I have a feeling that if Locker were to get hurt for several weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see Whitehurst finish the game, and then Mettenberger end up starting the next game(s).)

His path to determining whether there is anything there is probably not too far off, as Locker has yet to play 16 games in a year.

 

[ZWK]

I'm generally not a fan of stashing backup QBs in standard size dynasty leagues, unless they were drafted in the first round or early second (or if they run well).

If you look at where the top fantasy quarterbacks have come from, most of them were top 40 picks in the NFL draft. That includes 12 of the top 16 QBs in redraft ADP this year, and 67% of all QB VBD since 1988 (and this 67% level has stayed pretty steady over that time). QB is extremely top-heavy, and most of the guys at the top were identified as top prospects coming out of college.

Top fantasy QBs have included a ton of early first round picks, a fair number of mid-to-late first rounders, a bunch of early second rounders (Kaepernick, Brees, Favre, Esiason, Cunningham), and then a smattering of guys who went during the rest of the draft or who went undrafted (Brady, Romo, etc.). There seems to be a pretty rapid dropoff after pick 40 - picks 41-90 do not really stand out from picks 91+ in terms of quality (although Wilson & Foles have hit recently).

There presumably is not a sudden sharp cutoff between picks 40 & 41, but I can make up a theory which fits the observed pattern that pick 35 is notably different from pick 55. A QB who makes it past the early 2nd has been passed on twice by all of the QB-needy teams with early picks, which is not a good sign.

So, my approach to QBs prospects who weren't drafted in the top 40 or 50 picks: Any QB who is about to get one of his first few starts is probably worth rostering to see what he does. But I'd rather not fill up a roster spot for years waiting for a not-drafted-early QB prospect to get his shot.

(Things are different in a 2 QB league or with very deep rosters. Also, rostering a low-upside veteran who will never see your starting lineup, like Chad Henne as your QB4, is an even worse idea than rostering a decent prospect like Osweiler or Nassib.)

 

[Tool]

I'm generally not a fan of stashing backup QBs in standard size dynasty leagues, unless they were drafted in the first round or early second (or if they run well).

If you look at where the top fantasy quarterbacks have come from, most of them were top 40 picks in the NFL draft. That includes 12 of the top 16 QBs in redraft ADP this year, and 67% of all QB VBD since 1988 (and this 67% level has stayed pretty steady over that time). QB is extremely top-heavy, and most of the guys at the top were identified as top prospects coming out of college.

Top fantasy QBs have included a ton of early first round picks, a fair number of mid-to-late first rounders, a bunch of early second rounders (Kaepernick, Brees, Favre, Esiason, Cunningham), and then a smattering of guys who went during the rest of the draft or who went undrafted (Brady, Romo, etc.). There seems to be a pretty rapid dropoff after pick 40 - picks 41-90 do not really stand out from picks 91+ in terms of quality (although Wilson & Foles have hit recently).

There presumably is not a sudden sharp cutoff between picks 40 & 41, but I can make up a theory which fits the observed pattern that pick 35 is notably different from pick 55. A QB who makes it past the early 2nd has been passed on twice by all of the QB-needy teams with early picks, which is not a good sign.

So, my approach to QBs prospects who weren't drafted in the top 40 or 50 picks: Any QB who is about to get one of his first few starts is probably worth rostering to see what he does. But I'd rather not fill up a roster spot for years waiting for a not-drafted-early QB prospect to get his shot.

(Things are different in a 2 QB league or with very deep rosters. Also, rostering a low-upside veteran who will never see your starting lineup, like Chad Henne as your QB4, is an even worse idea than rostering a decent prospect like Osweiler or Nassib.)

Good post and I agree with your approach. Sucks to miss out on that one that hits though...

 

[thriftyrocker]

(Things are different in a 2 QB league or with very deep rosters. Also, rostering a low-upside veteran who will never see your starting lineup, like Chad Henne as your QB4, is an even worse idea than rostering a decent prospect like Osweiler or Nassib.)

In general I find that trades in superflex or 2QB leagues are based on need not hope. That is, if someone's QB2 goes down and Henne is still starting, it will be easier to get modest value in trade for him than a backup with little chance of starting any time soon. Holding Henne and Fitzpatrick both works as a trade chip (and one that's easy to let go if you find someone with need) and reduces the pool of QBs available. If you're not prioritizing Kyle Orton in a 2QB dynasty right now, you're letting a potential trade chip slip away. Sure he will never start for you, but that doesn't mean you want him starting (or providing depth) for someone else. I would prefer a solid stopgap like Orton in Buffalo, Weeden in Dallas, Clausen in Chicago, or Tarvaris in Seattle, over a "what if" prospect like Griffin, Savage, Kellen Moore, Aaron Murray, for a lot of the reasons you gave in your post, that most of the "what if"s are "probably never"s.

 

[ZWK]

(Things are different in a 2 QB league or with very deep rosters. Also, rostering a low-upside veteran who will never see your starting lineup, like Chad Henne as your QB4, is an even worse idea than rostering a decent prospect like Osweiler or Nassib.)

In general I find that trades in superflex or 2QB leagues are based on need not hope. That is, if someone's QB2 goes down and Henne is still starting, it will be easier to get modest value in trade for him than a backup with little chance of starting any time soon. Holding Henne and Fitzpatrick both works as a trade chip (and one that's easy to let go if you find someone with need) and reduces the pool of QBs available. If you're not prioritizing Kyle Orton in a 2QB dynasty right now, you're letting a potential trade chip slip away. Sure he will never start for you, but that doesn't mean you want him starting (or providing depth) for someone else. I would prefer a solid stopgap like Orton in Buffalo, Weeden in Dallas, Clausen in Chicago, or Tarvaris in Seattle, over a "what if" prospect like Griffin, Savage, Kellen Moore, Aaron Murray, for a lot of the reasons you gave in your post, that most of the "what if"s are "probably never"s.

That paragraph was unclear - I intended to say that rostering Henne in a 1 QB league is a terrible idea. I was agreeing with Adam's point that rostering low-upside veteran QBs is a bad idea in standard leagues, despite disagreeing with his claim that rostering non-pedigree QB prospects is a good idea. Fitzpatrick or Nassib? The answer is neither (in start 1 QB leagues, with 250ish position players rostered).

In a 2 QB leagues the calculation is very different, and there are probably 50+ QBs worth rostering (including all 32 starters).

 

[mr roboto]

ZWK great posts. I play in a 2 QB league and there are currently around 55 QBs rostered (10 teams). Hell, I drafted Logan Thomas in the 5th round this year. Lottery ticket but you've gotta have those in this setup.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I'm stashing Mark Sanchez in deeper superflex and 2 QB leagues. No joke.

Same, even large 16 teamers

 

[KellysHeroes]

Where's Garappolo?

Out of curiosity, what's the assumption on how long Brady will remain a starting-caliber QB (primarily fantasy, but for NFL as well)?

I'm on this tiny little island that thinks Brady gets traded before he retires.

Baring a Peyton like scenic Brady is a pat forever

 

[Adam Harstad]

That paragraph was unclear - I intended to say that rostering Henne in a 1 QB league is a terrible idea. I was agreeing with Adam's point that rostering low-upside veteran QBs is a bad idea in standard leagues, despite disagreeing with his claim that rostering non-pedigree QB prospects is a good idea. Fitzpatrick or Nassib? The answer is neither (in start 1 QB leagues, with 250ish position players rostered).

In a 2 QB leagues the calculation is very different, and there are probably 50+ QBs worth rostering (including all 32 starters).

I don't think we're disagreeing, I think we're just looking at different league types. I play in a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (plus 2 IR and 2 TS spots). In a format like that, there's no way in hell I'd burn a roster spot on Ryan Nassib. Roster spots are too dear to burn on backup QBs who might be years away from contributing, (though I did grab Osweiler in the last waiver run of the season just in case Peyton wound up retiring over the offseason).

My oldest dynasty league, on the other hand, is a 10-teamer with 30 roster spots and extremely generous IRs (up to 10 IR spots, no rule in place that the player in question must have already been on your roster when he was injured for you to place him on IR). By the end of the season we will have 300+ offensive players rostered, and at the moment there are 41 quarterbacks on rosters, with every owner but one rostering at least 4. (The relative scarcity on the wire and the fact that it's a 10-teamer also means quality quarterbacks command much higher trade values than you'd see in most 1QB leagues). In that league, yeah, I'll carry multiple backup QBs at once. (I currently have Glennon and Mallett.)

My point isn't so much that everyone should be rostering backup quarterbacks, it's that everyone should be smarter about what quarterbacks they roster. If you're going to carry three quarterbacks, you're better off grabbing a long-shot like Ryan Nassib as your QB3 than a no-shot like Eli Manning. Your QB1 is your starter, your QB2 is your "break glass in case of emergency" guy who should be able to at least give you some points in the event something happens to your starter, and your QB3 is a pure upside play. This also applies to rankings: once I get past the top 20 or so I've already covered all of the starters and quality "break glass in case of emergency" backups, so I start ranking quality upside guys over the known mediocrities who just happen to have a starting job at the moment.

 

[MAC_32]

Welp, stash has been made with Logan Thomas. I expect this to go similarly as Terrelle Pryor, but with a slightly better chance of success because Logan has a good head on his shoulders whereas Pryor is a box of rocks. Carson is only inked for two more years and iirc if Arizona wants him gone after this season they can do that cheaply, so...we'll see.

 

[cstu]

Welp, stash has been made with Logan Thomas. I expect this to go similarly as Terrelle Pryor, but with a slightly better chance of success because Logan has a good head on his shoulders whereas Pryor is a box of rocks. Carson is only inked for two more years and iirc if Arizona wants him gone after this season they can do that cheaply, so...we'll see.

They will save $10M off the cap by cutting him.

 

[ZWK]

That paragraph was unclear - I intended to say that rostering Henne in a 1 QB league is a terrible idea. I was agreeing with Adam's point that rostering low-upside veteran QBs is a bad idea in standard leagues, despite disagreeing with his claim that rostering non-pedigree QB prospects is a good idea. Fitzpatrick or Nassib? The answer is neither (in start 1 QB leagues, with 250ish position players rostered).

In a 2 QB leagues the calculation is very different, and there are probably 50+ QBs worth rostering (including all 32 starters).

I don't think we're disagreeing, I think we're just looking at different league types. I play in a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (plus 2 IR and 2 TS spots). In a format like that, there's no way in hell I'd burn a roster spot on Ryan Nassib. Roster spots are too dear to burn on backup QBs who might be years away from contributing, (though I did grab Osweiler in the last waiver run of the season just in case Peyton wound up retiring over the offseason).

My oldest dynasty league, on the other hand, is a 10-teamer with 30 roster spots and extremely generous IRs (up to 10 IR spots, no rule in place that the player in question must have already been on your roster when he was injured for you to place him on IR). By the end of the season we will have 300+ offensive players rostered, and at the moment there are 41 quarterbacks on rosters, with every owner but one rostering at least 4. (The relative scarcity on the wire and the fact that it's a 10-teamer also means quality quarterbacks command much higher trade values than you'd see in most 1QB leagues). In that league, yeah, I'll carry multiple backup QBs at once. (I currently have Glennon and Mallett.)

My point isn't so much that everyone should be rostering backup quarterbacks, it's that everyone should be smarter about what quarterbacks they roster. If you're going to carry three quarterbacks, you're better off grabbing a long-shot like Ryan Nassib as your QB3 than a no-shot like Eli Manning. Your QB1 is your starter, your QB2 is your "break glass in case of emergency" guy who should be able to at least give you some points in the event something happens to your starter, and your QB3 is a pure upside play. This also applies to rankings: once I get past the top 20 or so I've already covered all of the starters and quality "break glass in case of emergency" backups, so I start ranking quality upside guys over the known mediocrities who just happen to have a starting job at the moment.

You're right that league size makes a big difference. Waiting on a guy like Osweiler or Nassib is much less costly in a league where more players are rostered - roster slots are cheaper, so you're giving up less by keeping one filled.

I think your framing in the part of your response that I bolded ("If you're going to carry three quarterbacks...") is the wrong way to look at things. An owner shouldn't decide to carry three quarterbacks and then pick between Fitzpatrick & Nassib. The decision of whether or not to roster a low-upside veteran like Fitzpatrick is based on whether you might need him to start for you this year - if your top 2 QBs have the same bye, or if one of them gets knocked out for the season, then it might be worth rostering him as a potential stopgap. Otherwise, he's not worth rostering.

Nassib isn't competing with Fitzpatrick for a spot on your roster, he's competing with all of the prospects at the other positions like TE David Ausberry (and whoever you'd pick up if Ausberry busts in a few weeks, and the rest of the guys you'd churn through that roster spot). If the waiver wire is so thin at RB, WR, and TE that you can't do better than sitting on a QB like Nassib, then roster Nassib. If there still are some RB/WR/TE prospects with decent potential, and there are likely to continue to be decent enough prospects for there to be value in churning guys through that roster spot, then don't lock a QB prospect into the roster spot.

Prospects have no position. Their position is "bench" - guys who won't help me win now, and probably won't ever amount to anything, but have enough expected value to be worth keeping in your portfolio. They aren't competing for your roster space with other guys at the same position, they're competing with other prospects. If you have room to roster 8 prospects who are extremely unlikely to crack your lineup this year, then there is no particular reason to earmark exactly 1 of those spots to a QB prospect. Depending on the quality of the prospects out there at each position (and who you're able to beat the other owners to picking up) you might roster 4 QB prospects or you might roster none. It doesn't make much sense to be worried about rostering too few QB prospects, because odds are you'll end up with 0 fantasy-startable QBs out of the bunch regardless of whether you have 0 or 4 prospects. And it doesn't make much sense to be worried about rostering too many QB prospects (except insofar as you're passing up better prospect value at other positions), because odds are you won't end up with more than 1 fantasy-startable QB out of the bunch (and if you do wind up with more than 1, that is not a bad problem to have).