#### Couch Potato

##### Footballguy

I've migrated the last few years from redraft to dynasty leagues, and with that I've greatly increased my focus on age vs. productivity evaluation. I'm posting this today after reading the recent thread How old is too old for a RB? I'd like to share with you something I've put some time and thought into and has been valuable to me. I think it's a useful concept in Dynasty that you may want to add as another tool in your Dynasty player evaluation toolbox.

I keep a big fantasy football spreadsheet containing player data and projections, league info for my leagues, and a bunch of other weird stuff. One of the things it contains is a Quality Years Remaining (QYR) column for each player.

The QYR formula takes into account a category of player's average peak age and 'serious decline' age. The formula is a little different for each category of player because they peak and decline at different ages. I use these as my average ages:

Peak:

QB = 28.5

RB = 24.5

WR = 26.5

TE = 25.5

PK = 28.5

Decline:

QB = 34

RB = 31

WR = 32

TE = 32

PK = 36

And here is the general formula (I prefer to use age at Sept 1 as it's near the season's start):

peak age-((1-((decline age-peak age)/peak age))*age on Sept 1)

Therefore,

QB = 28.5-((1-((34-28.5)/28.5))*age on Sept 1)

RB = 24.5-((1-((31-24.5)/24.5))*age on Sept 1)

WR = 26.5-((1-((32-26.5)/26.5))*age on Sept 1)

TE = 25.5-((1-((32-25.5)/25.5))*age on Sept 1)

PK = 28.5-((1-((36-28.5)/28.5))*age on Sept 1)

Some players have negative QYR since by formula they should have gone into serious decline already. This doesn't mean that specific player has done so, but it's certainly a warning. Players need ultimately to be evaluated individually, and there will always be outliers like Brad Johnson and Rod Smith, but the exceptions don't discredit QYR's general usefulness.

As players get older, the sum of their Age+QYR increases, which is why if you add Age+QYR for different RBs, for example, you won't get the same answer. A 28 year old player no longer faces the risks of what could go wrong from ages 24-28 that a 24 year old does. The reasoning is a little like actuarial tables in that the longer you have already lived, the longer your overall life expectancy will be.

Let's look at some popular RBs as examples.

Shaun Alexander will be 29.0 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 3.2, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*29.0)=3.2. Age+QYR is 29.0+3.2=32.2.

Stephen Jackson will be 23.1 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 7.5, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*23.1)=7.5. Age+QYR is 23.1+7.5=30.6.

Tiki Barber will be 31.4 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 1.4, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*31.4)=1.4. Age+QYR is 31.4+1.4=32.8.

Tiki's total Age+QYR of 32.8 > Jackson's 30.6 because Tiki has already made it to age 31.4 whereas Jackson faces the extra risk of 8.3 years between his and Tiki's ages.

Finally, Curtis Martin will be 33.3 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 0.0, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*33.3)=0.0. Age+QYR is 33.3+0.0=33.3.

As I said earlier, players need to be evaluated individually, and Martin's QYR of 0.0 is no promise he's through. But I think a QYR approaching zero should have alarm bells going off for anyone considering owning a player.

The QYR concept helps a fantasy player, especially in keeper and dynasty leagues, not only in that it gives a warning when a player is nearing the end, but also in evaluating players for other reasons (drafts, trades, keeper decisions, etc.). I think it's a useful quick and dirty tool for getting a rough sense of how much time a QB or RB or WR has remaining on the NFL landscape.

I was planning to save this for a FBG article later on, but hopefully by putting it out on the message board now, more people can benefit from it this offseason. Plus it saves Joe and David twenty bucks.

Best regards,

Couch Potato

I keep a big fantasy football spreadsheet containing player data and projections, league info for my leagues, and a bunch of other weird stuff. One of the things it contains is a Quality Years Remaining (QYR) column for each player.

**QYR is a number that that gives me a sense of time remaining before a category of player (QB, RB, etc.) may be expected to go into serious decline.**I created QYR using a merging of age research done a few years back by FBG's Doug Drinen, a Sabernomics rule of thumb formula used by Bill James in his Baseball Abstract, and my own research on career aging and productivity patterns of NFL players.**QYR is only a general guideline and not an individual evaluation of any specific player.**The QYR formula takes into account a category of player's average peak age and 'serious decline' age. The formula is a little different for each category of player because they peak and decline at different ages. I use these as my average ages:

Peak:

QB = 28.5

RB = 24.5

WR = 26.5

TE = 25.5

PK = 28.5

Decline:

QB = 34

RB = 31

WR = 32

TE = 32

PK = 36

And here is the general formula (I prefer to use age at Sept 1 as it's near the season's start):

peak age-((1-((decline age-peak age)/peak age))*age on Sept 1)

Therefore,

QB = 28.5-((1-((34-28.5)/28.5))*age on Sept 1)

**= 28.5-(.807*age on Sept 1)**RB = 24.5-((1-((31-24.5)/24.5))*age on Sept 1)

**= 24.5-(.735*age on Sept 1)**WR = 26.5-((1-((32-26.5)/26.5))*age on Sept 1)

**= 26.5-(.792*age on Sept 1)**TE = 25.5-((1-((32-25.5)/25.5))*age on Sept 1)

**= 25.5-(.745*age on Sept 1)**PK = 28.5-((1-((36-28.5)/28.5))*age on Sept 1)

**= 28.5-(.737*age on Sept 1)****(NOTE -- see post 40 below for January 2010 post which rounds peak ages to whole numbers and updates the above factors accordingly)**Some players have negative QYR since by formula they should have gone into serious decline already. This doesn't mean that specific player has done so, but it's certainly a warning. Players need ultimately to be evaluated individually, and there will always be outliers like Brad Johnson and Rod Smith, but the exceptions don't discredit QYR's general usefulness.

As players get older, the sum of their Age+QYR increases, which is why if you add Age+QYR for different RBs, for example, you won't get the same answer. A 28 year old player no longer faces the risks of what could go wrong from ages 24-28 that a 24 year old does. The reasoning is a little like actuarial tables in that the longer you have already lived, the longer your overall life expectancy will be.

Let's look at some popular RBs as examples.

Shaun Alexander will be 29.0 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 3.2, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*29.0)=3.2. Age+QYR is 29.0+3.2=32.2.

Stephen Jackson will be 23.1 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 7.5, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*23.1)=7.5. Age+QYR is 23.1+7.5=30.6.

Tiki Barber will be 31.4 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 1.4, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*31.4)=1.4. Age+QYR is 31.4+1.4=32.8.

Tiki's total Age+QYR of 32.8 > Jackson's 30.6 because Tiki has already made it to age 31.4 whereas Jackson faces the extra risk of 8.3 years between his and Tiki's ages.

Finally, Curtis Martin will be 33.3 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 0.0, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*33.3)=0.0. Age+QYR is 33.3+0.0=33.3.

As I said earlier, players need to be evaluated individually, and Martin's QYR of 0.0 is no promise he's through. But I think a QYR approaching zero should have alarm bells going off for anyone considering owning a player.

**Personally, any player I choose to own who has a QYR under 2.0 is someone I place little trust in and make sure I have a good contingency plan for.**The QYR concept helps a fantasy player, especially in keeper and dynasty leagues, not only in that it gives a warning when a player is nearing the end, but also in evaluating players for other reasons (drafts, trades, keeper decisions, etc.). I think it's a useful quick and dirty tool for getting a rough sense of how much time a QB or RB or WR has remaining on the NFL landscape.

I was planning to save this for a FBG article later on, but hopefully by putting it out on the message board now, more people can benefit from it this offseason. Plus it saves Joe and David twenty bucks.

Best regards,

Couch Potato

Last edited by a moderator: