[Dynasty] Quality Years Remaining (QYR) (1 Viewer)

[Couch Potato]

I've migrated the last few years from redraft to dynasty leagues, and with that I've greatly increased my focus on age vs. productivity evaluation. I'm posting this today after reading the recent thread How old is too old for a RB? I'd like to share with you something I've put some time and thought into and has been valuable to me. I think it's a useful concept in Dynasty that you may want to add as another tool in your Dynasty player evaluation toolbox.

I keep a big fantasy football spreadsheet containing player data and projections, league info for my leagues, and a bunch of other weird stuff. One of the things it contains is a Quality Years Remaining (QYR) column for each player. QYR is a number that that gives me a sense of time remaining before a category of player (QB, RB, etc.) may be expected to go into serious decline. I created QYR using a merging of age research done a few years back by FBG's Doug Drinen, a Sabernomics rule of thumb formula used by Bill James in his Baseball Abstract, and my own research on career aging and productivity patterns of NFL players. QYR is only a general guideline and not an individual evaluation of any specific player.

The QYR formula takes into account a category of player's average peak age and 'serious decline' age. The formula is a little different for each category of player because they peak and decline at different ages. I use these as my average ages:

Peak:

QB = 28.5

RB = 24.5

WR = 26.5

TE = 25.5

PK = 28.5

Decline:

QB = 34

RB = 31

WR = 32

TE = 32

PK = 36

And here is the general formula (I prefer to use age at Sept 1 as it's near the season's start):

peak age-((1-((decline age-peak age)/peak age))*age on Sept 1)

Therefore,

QB = 28.5-((1-((34-28.5)/28.5))*age on Sept 1) = 28.5-(.807*age on Sept 1)

RB = 24.5-((1-((31-24.5)/24.5))*age on Sept 1) = 24.5-(.735*age on Sept 1)

WR = 26.5-((1-((32-26.5)/26.5))*age on Sept 1) = 26.5-(.792*age on Sept 1)

TE = 25.5-((1-((32-25.5)/25.5))*age on Sept 1) = 25.5-(.745*age on Sept 1)

PK = 28.5-((1-((36-28.5)/28.5))*age on Sept 1) = 28.5-(.737*age on Sept 1)

(NOTE -- see post 40 below for January 2010 post which rounds peak ages to whole numbers and updates the above factors accordingly)

Some players have negative QYR since by formula they should have gone into serious decline already. This doesn't mean that specific player has done so, but it's certainly a warning. Players need ultimately to be evaluated individually, and there will always be outliers like Brad Johnson and Rod Smith, but the exceptions don't discredit QYR's general usefulness.

As players get older, the sum of their Age+QYR increases, which is why if you add Age+QYR for different RBs, for example, you won't get the same answer. A 28 year old player no longer faces the risks of what could go wrong from ages 24-28 that a 24 year old does. The reasoning is a little like actuarial tables in that the longer you have already lived, the longer your overall life expectancy will be.

Let's look at some popular RBs as examples.

Shaun Alexander will be 29.0 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 3.2, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*29.0)=3.2. Age+QYR is 29.0+3.2=32.2.

Stephen Jackson will be 23.1 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 7.5, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*23.1)=7.5. Age+QYR is 23.1+7.5=30.6.

Tiki Barber will be 31.4 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 1.4, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*31.4)=1.4. Age+QYR is 31.4+1.4=32.8.

Tiki's total Age+QYR of 32.8 > Jackson's 30.6 because Tiki has already made it to age 31.4 whereas Jackson faces the extra risk of 8.3 years between his and Tiki's ages.

Finally, Curtis Martin will be 33.3 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 0.0, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*33.3)=0.0. Age+QYR is 33.3+0.0=33.3.

As I said earlier, players need to be evaluated individually, and Martin's QYR of 0.0 is no promise he's through. But I think a QYR approaching zero should have alarm bells going off for anyone considering owning a player. Personally, any player I choose to own who has a QYR under 2.0 is someone I place little trust in and make sure I have a good contingency plan for.

The QYR concept helps a fantasy player, especially in keeper and dynasty leagues, not only in that it gives a warning when a player is nearing the end, but also in evaluating players for other reasons (drafts, trades, keeper decisions, etc.). I think it's a useful quick and dirty tool for getting a rough sense of how much time a QB or RB or WR has remaining on the NFL landscape.

I was planning to save this for a FBG article later on, but hopefully by putting it out on the message board now, more people can benefit from it this offseason. Plus it saves Joe and David twenty bucks.

Best regards,

Couch Potato

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Good stuff here Couch Potato.

I've been working on a Dynasty Calculator, but that focuses more on rookies than vets. I'm probably going to debut that later this summer.

There was a good study done on average player life expectancy:

Career Expectancy

expected career length by position:

all positions

5.33

running backs

4.35

wide receivers

4.54

defensive tackles

4.71

tight ends

4.98

cornerbacks

5.13

defensive ends

5.39

linebackers

5.50

safeties

5.88

offensive line

5.95

quarterbacks

6.96

punters/kickers

8.33

 

[EBF]

Interesting idea.

That said, I have some problems with this as a way to measure RB longevity potential. In my opinion, the number of career touches that a back has accumulated is more important than his age. For example, Edgerrin James is only 27 years old, but has already logged over 2,500 career touches. I'll be very surprised if he holds up for more than another year or two.

Reuben Droughns is almost the exact same age, but has only accumulated about 700 touches. All else being equal, I'd say Droughns has a lot more left in the tank than James (although I'm not convinced that Droughns is good enough to keep his job in the long-term).

This is a good starting point, but I think it can be approved. Then again, there are also plenty of problems with counting touches. Certain players like LaDainian Tomlinson seem to avoid taking lots of big hits (you can actually see this when he plays), whereas other guys like Chris Brown and Kevin Jones tend to get lit up with some regularity.

 

[EBF]

Good stuff here Couch Potato.

I've been working on a Dynasty Calculator, but that focuses more on rookies than vets. I'm probably going to debut that later this summer.

There was a good study done on average player life expectancy:

Career Expectancy

expected career length by position:

all positions

5.33

running backs

4.35

wide receivers

4.54

defensive tackles

4.71

tight ends

4.98

cornerbacks

5.13

defensive ends

5.39

linebackers

5.50

safeties

5.88

offensive line

5.95

quarterbacks

6.96

punters/kickers

8.33

I've seen you use these numbers in arguments before and I have a bit of a problem with it. My problem is that it doesn't seem to account for the quality of the player. For example, you can expect a Pro Bowl caliber WR to have a longer career than someone like Taco Wallace. The Pro Bowler will only wash out if he gets injured or gets old, whereas the fringe player like Wallace is liable to be cut at any point. That's why I don't think you can just look at a guy like Larry Fitzgerald and say that he only has 2.54 years left. That's absurd. In all likelihood, Fitz will be a factor for the next decade. On the flipside, I wouldn't assume that someone like Carlos Francis has 2.54 years left. Fringe players wash out. Good players stick.

That said, the data is still useful.

 

[Couch Potato]

Good stuff here Couch Potato.

I've been working on a Dynasty Calculator, but that focuses more on rookies than vets. I'm probably going to debut that later this summer.

There was a good study done on average player life expectancy:

Career Expectancy

Hi Jeff:i saw that thread awhile back. The big drawback in the linked study, for the fantasy player's purposes, is that all players in a particular category are lumped together whereas we are generally dealing with higher ability players.

In the average number calculated by the study is every 4th stringer who will be replaced as soon as his skills diminish a little or another similar player can be found making minimum salary. A lot more roster turnover exists at the bottom.

I'd love to see that same study done but with the inclusion of only the top-(pick a number) players who would be draftable in fantasy leagues. The averages for players we as fantasy enthusiasts evaluate would be much, much higher.

ETA - The age research Drinen did (as I recall), and I've done, took into account only players who have attained certain standards of fantasy usefulness. The 'serious decline' number would be quite muddled if every scrub NFL player was included.

 

[EBF]

Good stuff here Couch Potato.

I've been working on a Dynasty Calculator, but that focuses more on rookies than vets.  I'm probably going to debut that later this summer.

There was a good study done on average player life expectancy:

Career Expectancy

Hi Jeff:i saw that thread awhile back. The big drawback in the linked study, for the fantasy player's purposes, is that a;; players in a particular category are lumped together whereas we are generally dealing with higher ability players.

In the average number calculated by the study is every 4th stringer who will be replaced as soon as his skills diminish a little or another similar player can be cheaply replaced by guys making minimum salary. A lot more roster turnover exists at the bottom.

I'd love to see that same study done but with the inclusion of only of the top-(pick a number) players who would be draftable in fantasy leagues. The averages for players we as fantasy enthusiasts evaluate would be much, much higher.

That's basically what I was getting at.

 

[Couch Potato]

Interesting idea.

That said, I have some problems with this as a way to measure RB longevity potential. In my opinion, the number of career touches that a back has accumulated is more important than his age. For example, Edgerrin James is only 27 years old, but has already logged over 2,500 career touches. I'll be very surprised if he holds up for more than another year or two.

Reuben Droughns is almost the exact same age, but has only accumulated about 700 touches. All else being equal, I'd say Droughns has a lot more left in the tank than James (although I'm not convinced that Droughns is good enough to keep his job in the long-term).

This is a good starting point, but I think it can be approved. Then again, there are also plenty of problems with counting touches. Certain players like LaDainian Tomlinson seem to avoid taking lots of big hits (you can actually see this when he plays), whereas other guys like Chris Brown and Kevin Jones tend to get lit up with some regularity.

As you mentioned, there are a lot of problems counting touches too, and I don't know myself which is a better indicator. Personally, I believe natural aging is a bigger culprit than workload, but I won't go to the mat arguing with someone who believes differently.One thing I do know is that I can set up a spreadsheet with a birth date and a bunch of formulas once, and it will always be up to date. Anyone can take my little formula and apply it just knowing a player's age, which is readily available. With touches it becomes very work-intensive and I don't know that it provides a better result. It's just a rule of thumb remember, not a hard-and-fast rule, whether using touches or age.

Plus, touches are strictly a RB concept. I want to know roughly how long a QB or a WR has left too, for draft and trade and keeper purposes. I can compare a WR to a RB in this way. I can't do that with touches.

 

[EBF]

Interesting idea.

That said, I have some problems with this as a way to measure RB longevity potential. In my opinion, the number of career touches that a back has accumulated is more important than his age. For example, Edgerrin James is only 27 years old, but has already logged over 2,500 career touches. I'll be very surprised if he holds up for more than another year or two.

Reuben Droughns is almost the exact same age, but has only accumulated about 700 touches. All else being equal, I'd say Droughns has a lot more left in the tank than James (although I'm not convinced that Droughns is good enough to keep his job in the long-term).

This is a good starting point, but I think it can be approved. Then again, there are also plenty of problems with counting touches. Certain players like LaDainian Tomlinson seem to avoid taking lots of big hits (you can actually see this when he plays), whereas other guys like Chris Brown and Kevin Jones tend to get lit up with some regularity.

As you mentioned, there are a lot of problems counting touches too, and I don't know myself which is a better indicator. Personally, I believe natural aging is a bigger culprit than workload, but I won't go to the mat arguing with someone who believes differently.One thing I do know is that I can set up a spreadsheet with a birth date and a bunch of formulas once, and it will always be up to date. Anyone can take my little formula and apply it just knowing a player's age, which is readily available. With touches it becomes very work-intensive and I don't know that it provides a better result. It's just a rule of thumb remember, not a hard-and-fast rule, whether using touches or age.

Plus, touches are strictly a RB concept. I want to know how long a QB or a WR (roughly) has left too, for draft and trade and keeper purposes. I can compare a WR to a RB in this way. I can't do that with touches.

Yea. I think this stuff is valuable, but I wouldn't take it as gospel. I think it's important to consider both age and touches. It's also wise to consider playing style and build. I like Steven Jackson a lot in redraft leagues. In dynasty? Not so much. He's young and he doesn't have a lot of mileage, but I don't think he projects to last as long as someone like Reggie Bush or maybe even Cadillac Williams.

 

[noneother]

one more consideration, "average time to peak" how long before a position contributes, QBs take longer to "cure" than RBs...

 

[EBF]

one more consideration, "average time to peak" how long before a position contributes, QBs take longer to "cure" than RBs...

That's true. It's important to keep that in mind when building your dynasty squads. Bad teams tend to get the early rookie picks and they tend to use those picks on RBs. This makes some sense, but I'd also argue that it might be wiser to trade down a bit and pick up some help at WR and QB. RB is the one position where you can often count on a rookie to give you decent numbers, meaning it should be the last hole that you fill when you're re-building your squad.

Of course, it's not quite that simple. You can almost always trade future picks for serviceable starters at QB and WR, whereas the draft might be your only real shot to get a decent RB.

 

[Yoda of the JediKnights]

Couch Potato,

Great Job!!! Always enjoy reading such...

Yoda

 

[code]

hmmm...needs more thought...

 

[gang-wars]

I've migrated the last few years from redraft to dynasty leagues, and with that I've greatly increased my focus on age vs. productivity evaluation. I'm posting this today after reading the recent thread How old is too old for a RB? I'd like to share with you something I've put some time and thought into and has been valuable to me. I think it's a useful concept in Dynasty that you may want to add as another tool in your Dynasty player evaluation toolbox.

I keep a big fantasy football spreadsheet containing player data and projections, league info for my leagues, and a bunch of other weird stuff. One of the things it contains is a Quality Years Remaining (QYR) column for each player. QYR is a number that that gives me a sense of time remaining before a category of player (QB, RB, etc.) may be expected to go into serious decline. I created QYR using a merging of age research done a few years back by FBG's Doug Drinen, a Sabernomics rule of thumb formula used by Bill James in his Baseball Abstract, and my own research on career aging and productivity patterns of NFL players. QYR is only a general guideline and not an individual evaluation of any specific player.

The QYR formula takes into account a category of player's average peak age and 'serious decline' age. The formula is a little different for each category of player because they peak and decline at different ages. I use these as my average ages:

Peak:

QB = 28.5

RB = 24.5

WR = 26.5

TE = 25.5

PK = 28.5

Decline:

QB = 34

RB = 31

WR = 32

TE = 32

PK = 36

And here is the general formula (I prefer to use age at Sept 1 as it's near the season's start):

peak age-((1-((decline age-peak age)/peak age))*age on Sept 1)

Therefore,

QB = 28.5-((1-((34-28.5)/28.5))*age on Sept 1) = 28.5-(.807*age on Sept 1)

RB = 24.5-((1-((31-24.5)/24.5))*age on Sept 1) = 24.5-(.735*age on Sept 1)

WR = 26.5-((1-((32-26.5)/26.5))*age on Sept 1) = 26.5-(.792*age on Sept 1)

TE = 25.5-((1-((32-25.5)/25.5))*age on Sept 1) = 25.5-(.745*age on Sept 1)

PK = 28.5-((1-((36-28.5)/28.5))*age on Sept 1) = 28.5-(.737*age on Sept 1)

Some players have negative QYR since by formula they should have gone into serious decline already. This doesn't mean that specific player has done so, but it's certainly a warning. Players need ultimately to be evaluated individually, and there will always be outliers like Brad Johnson and Rod Smith, but the exceptions don't discredit QYR's general usefulness.

As players get older, the sum of their Age+QYR increases, which is why if you add Age+QYR for different RBs, for example, you won't get the same answer. A 28 year old player no longer faces the risks of what could go wrong from ages 24-28 that a 24 year old does. The reasoning is a little like actuarial tables in that the longer you have already lived, the longer your overall life expectancy will be.

Let's look at some popular RBs as examples.

Shaun Alexander will be 29.0 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 3.2, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*29.0)=3.2. Age+QYR is 29.0+3.2=32.2.

Stephen Jackson will be 23.1 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 7.5, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*23.1)=7.5. Age+QYR is 23.1+7.5=30.6.

Tiki Barber will be 31.4 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 1.4, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*31.4)=1.4. Age+QYR is 31.4+1.4=32.8.

Tiki's total Age+QYR of 32.8 > Jackson's 30.6 because Tiki has already made it to age 31.4 whereas Jackson faces the extra risk of 8.3 years between his and Tiki's ages.

Finally, Curtis Martin will be 33.3 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 0.0, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*33.3)=0.0. Age+QYR is 33.3+0.0=33.3.

As I said earlier, players need to be evaluated individually, and Martin's QYR of 0.0 is no promise he's through. But I think a QYR approaching zero should have alarm bells going off for anyone considering owning a player. Personally, any player I choose to own who has a QYR under 2.0 is someone I place little trust in and make sure I have a good contingency plan for.

The QYR concept helps a fantasy player, especially in keeper and dynasty leagues, not only in that it gives a warning when a player is nearing the end, but also in evaluating players for other reasons (drafts, trades, keeper decisions, etc.). I think it's a useful quick and dirty tool for getting a rough sense of how much time a QB or RB or WR has remaining on the NFL landscape.

I was planning to save this for a FBG article later on, but hopefully by putting it out on the message board now, more people can benefit from it this offseason. Plus it saves Joe and David twenty bucks.

Best regards,

Couch Potato

Do you have an excel file with players ages and QYR? That would be awesome.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Good stuff here Couch Potato.

I've been working on a Dynasty Calculator, but that focuses more on rookies than vets. I'm probably going to debut that later this summer.

There was a good study done on average player life expectancy:

Career Expectancy

Hi Jeff:i saw that thread awhile back. The big drawback in the linked study, for the fantasy player's purposes, is that all players in a particular category are lumped together whereas we are generally dealing with higher ability players.

In the average number calculated by the study is every 4th stringer who will be replaced as soon as his skills diminish a little or another similar player can be found making minimum salary. A lot more roster turnover exists at the bottom.

I'd love to see that same study done but with the inclusion of only the top-(pick a number) players who would be draftable in fantasy leagues. The averages for players we as fantasy enthusiasts evaluate would be much, much higher.

ETA - The age research Drinen did (as I recall), and I've done, took into account only players who have attained certain standards of fantasy usefulness. The 'serious decline' number would be quite muddled if every scrub NFL player was included.

There's validity to both sides of the argument. Your info here is predicated on a player who has already proven to be viable in the NFL. There are no Akili Smiths or Ryan Leafs in your metrics.I've seen arguments on both sides, but I believe the hit-or-miss success rate on NFL Draft Day is about 50%, so there's no clear way to say that Reggie Bush will last 4.5 years, 2 years, or 12. There's no way to tell.

Unexpected events happen all the time. Kellen Winslow Jr. was the Vernon Davis of his draft day. If I told you he might play 2 games in two years you would laugh.

So, taking the average of all NFL players is pretty unbiased data to use for drafting rookies.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I have some problems with this as a way to measure RB longevity potential. In my opinion, the number of career touches that a back has accumulated is more important than his age.

People bring this up quite often but really, does real life hold true to this ideal?Wasn't Priest Holmes supposed to hold up for years because even though he was getting old, he didn't have a whole lot of touches?Marshall Faulk generally had fewer touches than most feature RBs, yet he broke down right around the same age all RBs seem to. Corey Dillon looked awful that year despite not having that huge a workload for a career, with 1000+ less touches than Curtis Martin who broke down right around the same time, and meanwhile Emmitt Smith got more carries than most yet still made it to the same age we see most RBs get to before breaking down.It just seems to me that with so many RBs not getting their "start" at being the feature guy until they're 26, 27, or 28 (currently guys like Priest, Jordan, C. Taylor, etc) if it were really the case that touches were more the determining factor we'd see more of these RBs going strong when they're 34 or 35 years old, yet we never see it.If guys like Emmitt and Martin and many others can start getting the load at 21 or 22 years old and still last to 32 or 33, why can't guys that start getting the load at 24 or 25 or 26 or 27 make it to their mid-30's if touches are what really matter? LaMont Jordan has had fewer than half the touches of Clinton Portis, but does anyone really think that Jordan has more years left in the tank than Portis?Age seems to have a much larger effect.

 

[Couch Potato]

Good stuff here Couch Potato.

I've been working on a Dynasty Calculator, but that focuses more on rookies than vets. I'm probably going to debut that later this summer.

There was a good study done on average player life expectancy:

Career Expectancy

Hi Jeff:i saw that thread awhile back. The big drawback in the linked study, for the fantasy player's purposes, is that all players in a particular category are lumped together whereas we are generally dealing with higher ability players.

In the average number calculated by the study is every 4th stringer who will be replaced as soon as his skills diminish a little or another similar player can be found making minimum salary. A lot more roster turnover exists at the bottom.

I'd love to see that same study done but with the inclusion of only the top-(pick a number) players who would be draftable in fantasy leagues. The averages for players we as fantasy enthusiasts evaluate would be much, much higher.

ETA - The age research Drinen did (as I recall), and I've done, took into account only players who have attained certain standards of fantasy usefulness. The 'serious decline' number would be quite muddled if every scrub NFL player was included.

There's validity to both sides of the argument. Your info here is predicated on a player who has already proven to be viable in the NFL. There are no Akili Smiths or Ryan Leafs in your metrics.I've seen arguments on both sides, but I believe the hit-or-miss success rate on NFL Draft Day is about 50%, so there's no clear way to say that Reggie Bush will last 4.5 years, 2 years, or 12. There's no way to tell.

Unexpected events happen all the time. Kellen Winslow Jr. was the Vernon Davis of his draft day. If I told you he might play 2 games in two years you would laugh.

So, taking the average of all NFL players is pretty unbiased data to use for drafting rookies.

I forgot you mentioned your purpose was rookie evaluation. With lack of any track record it's much harder to foresee a career path. If I were doing a 'number of career years' evaluation of rookies I wouldn't look at QYR the same way I would with a player who has been in the league two years and has an established role.What I would do if I were doing such a study, though, is separate rookies by round (for round one, I'd even consider 1st half and 2nd half of the round separately) and look at 10 years of data. I'd never lump 7th rounders with 1st rounders to look at length of career - to do so would render the results valueless. Once I separated players by round, I'd then be more interested in fantasy production and when that ends than how long a career actually lasts.

For fantasy purposes, Anthony Thomas' (2nd round) career ended awhile back yet he still floats from team to team, pretty much useless to the guy who drafted him instead of LT2 (high 1st round). Measuring just career years treats them equally to this point. Karl Hankton has probably never been on a fantasy roster, yet he's still hanging around at the age of 36 because of special teams skills (or he has nekkid pics of the owner).

You don't want those kinds of guys messing up the value of your results. What I'd want to see is the usefulness of a typical 2nd or 3rd round pick over the course of his career, not just how long he hangs around. That sort of information would be much more valuable.

 

[wannabee]

Good stuff here Couch Potato.

I've been working on a Dynasty Calculator, but that focuses more on rookies than vets.  I'm probably going to debut that later this summer.

There was a good study done on average player life expectancy:

Career Expectancy

Hi Jeff:i saw that thread awhile back. The big drawback in the linked study, for the fantasy player's purposes, is that all players in a particular category are lumped together whereas we are generally dealing with higher ability players.

In the average number calculated by the study is every 4th stringer who will be replaced as soon as his skills diminish a little or another similar player can be found making minimum salary. A lot more roster turnover exists at the bottom.

I'd love to see that same study done but with the inclusion of only the top-(pick a number) players who would be draftable in fantasy leagues. The averages for players we as fantasy enthusiasts evaluate would be much, much higher.

ETA - The age research Drinen did (as I recall), and I've done, took into account only players who have attained certain standards of fantasy usefulness. The 'serious decline' number would be quite muddled if every scrub NFL player was included.

There's validity to both sides of the argument. Your info here is predicated on a player who has already proven to be viable in the NFL. There are no Akili Smiths or Ryan Leafs in your metrics.I've seen arguments on both sides, but I believe the hit-or-miss success rate on NFL Draft Day is about 50%, so there's no clear way to say that Reggie Bush will last 4.5 years, 2 years, or 12. There's no way to tell.

Unexpected events happen all the time. Kellen Winslow Jr. was the Vernon Davis of his draft day. If I told you he might play 2 games in two years you would laugh.

So, taking the average of all NFL players is pretty unbiased data to use for drafting rookies.

Oh, I agree with you. I forgot you mentioned your purpose was rookie evaluation. With lack of any track record it's much harder to foresee a career path. If I were doing a 'number of career years' evaluation of rookies I wouldn't look at QYR the same way I would with a player who has been in the league two years and has an established role.What I would do if I were doing such a study, though, is separate rookies by round (for round one, I'd even consider 1st half and 2nd half of the round separately) and look at 10 years of data. I'd then be more interested in fantasy production and when that ends than how long a career actually lasts.

For fantasy and purposes, Anthony Thomas' career ended awhile back yet he still floats from team to team, pretty much useless to the guy who drafted him instead of LT2. Measuring just career years treats them equally. Karl Hankton has probably never been on a fantasy roster, yet he's still hanging around at the age of 36 because of special teams skills (or he has nekkid pics of the owner).

You don't want those kinds of guys messing up the value of your results. What I'd want to see is the usefulness of a typical 2nd or 3rd round pick over the course of his career, not just how long he hangs around. That sort of information would be much more valuable.

This is not exactly related, but I had mentioned some of this stuff with Bloom in the past. This topic ranges everywhere from drafting trends by position and by team in last ten years to predicting the futures of rookies. He suggested I look at the first round of the last ten years, and weight them by pick using the NFL pick values (http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/8358748 ). So, if anyone wants a spreadsheet with the last ten years on NFL draft picks in a grid with the NFL pick value, shoot me a PM.

 

[brobe4]

Hey bruce now im starting to understand why i've been looking up in the standings to see you.

 

[EBF]

I have some problems with this as a way to measure RB longevity potential. In my opinion, the number of career touches that a back has accumulated is more important than his age.

People bring this up quite often but really, does real life hold true to this ideal?Wasn't Priest Holmes supposed to hold up for years because even though he was getting old, he didn't have a whole lot of touches?

Marshall Faulk generally had fewer touches than most feature RBs, yet he broke down right around the same age all RBs seem to. Corey Dillon looked awful that year despite not having that huge a workload for a career, with 1000+ less touches than Curtis Martin who broke down right around the same time, and meanwhile Emmitt Smith got more carries than most yet still made it to the same age we see most RBs get to before breaking down.

It just seems to me that with so many RBs not getting their "start" at being the feature guy until they're 26, 27, or 28 (currently guys like Priest, Jordan, C. Taylor, etc) if it were really the case that touches were more the determining factor we'd see more of these RBs going strong when they're 34 or 35 years old, yet we never see it.

If guys like Emmitt and Martin and many others can start getting the load at 21 or 22 years old and still last to 32 or 33, why can't guys that start getting the load at 24 or 25 or 26 or 27 make it to their mid-30's if touches are what really matter? LaMont Jordan has had fewer than half the touches of Clinton Portis, but does anyone really think that Jordan has more years left in the tank than Portis?

Age seems to have a much larger effect.

I don't know that you can necessarily conclude that. Recent trends may have favored age, but workload is most definitely a factor. Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and Eddie George all hit the wall well before they hit age 30. Ahman Green may be in the process of doing the same thing.Anyhow, Davis was effectively done when he was 27. Anderson had his best year when he was 26, had a final 1,000 yard season when he was 28, and was out of the NFL by the time he hit 30. George continued to get a lot of carries up until he was 30, but was never the same player after the 2000 season (when he was 27).

Based on the players above and other players that I've looked at, you often start to run into trouble at around 1700-1900 carries or around the age of 30 (these two often coincide).

Obviously it's not as simple as that. Some guys are built for longevity (Martin), whereas some quickly wear down (Anderson). Nevertheless, I start to get real nervous when a guy has logged about 1700 carries. That's why I'd really shy away from Shaun Alexander or Edgerrin James in a dynasty. Neither is in my top 10. I'm a little more forgiving of Tomlinson because I think he runs a little safer, but we might start to see him wear down in another year or two.

There are no sure things in FF. Some guys will surprise with their longevity and some will wash away sooner than expected. Nevertheless, if you consider both age and touches then I think you can effectively avoid some risk.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I have some problems with this as a way to measure RB longevity potential. In my opinion, the number of career touches that a back has accumulated is more important than his age.

People bring this up quite often but really, does real life hold true to this ideal?Wasn't Priest Holmes supposed to hold up for years because even though he was getting old, he didn't have a whole lot of touches?

Marshall Faulk generally had fewer touches than most feature RBs, yet he broke down right around the same age all RBs seem to. Corey Dillon looked awful that year despite not having that huge a workload for a career, with 1000+ less touches than Curtis Martin who broke down right around the same time, and meanwhile Emmitt Smith got more carries than most yet still made it to the same age we see most RBs get to before breaking down.

It just seems to me that with so many RBs not getting their "start" at being the feature guy until they're 26, 27, or 28 (currently guys like Priest, Jordan, C. Taylor, etc) if it were really the case that touches were more the determining factor we'd see more of these RBs going strong when they're 34 or 35 years old, yet we never see it.

If guys like Emmitt and Martin and many others can start getting the load at 21 or 22 years old and still last to 32 or 33, why can't guys that start getting the load at 24 or 25 or 26 or 27 make it to their mid-30's if touches are what really matter? LaMont Jordan has had fewer than half the touches of Clinton Portis, but does anyone really think that Jordan has more years left in the tank than Portis?

Age seems to have a much larger effect.

I don't know that you can necessarily conclude that. Recent trends may have favored age, but workload is most definitely a factor. Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and Eddie George all hit the wall well before they hit age 30. Ahman Green may be in the process of doing the same thing.Anyhow, Davis was effectively done when he was 27. Anderson had his best year when he was 26, had a final 1,000 yard season when he was 28, and was out of the NFL by the time he hit 30. George continued to get a lot of carries up until he was 30, but was never the same player after the 2000 season (when he was 27).

Based on the players above and other players that I've looked at, you often start to run into trouble at around 1700-1900 carries or around the age of 30 (these two often coincide).

Obviously it's not as simple as that. Some guys are built for longevity (Martin), whereas some quickly wear down (Anderson). Nevertheless, I start to get real nervous when a guy has logged about 1700 carries. That's why I'd really shy away from Shaun Alexander or Edgerrin James in a dynasty. Neither is in my top 10. I'm a little more forgiving of Tomlinson because I think he runs a little safer, but we might start to see him wear down in another year or two.

There are no sure things in FF. Some guys will surprise with their longevity and some will wash away sooner than expected. Nevertheless, if you consider both age and touches then I think you can effectively avoid some risk.

Eddie George is a good example of your point, and really the only one I can think of whereas there are dozens of examples to the contrary. Davis and Anderson are poor examples for your point because didn't both have basically career ending ACL injuries? Neither had met your "touch threshold" yet so to say that is the cause doesn't add up, and there are oodles upon oodles of guys who have flown right past that threshold without slowing down a bit, even the guy that best fits your arguement in Eddie George didn't slow down until way after that point.Again I pose the question...many guys start as a feature back at 21 or 22 and last 10-11 years, so why don't we ever see the guys who start as a feature back at 25 or 26 or 27 playing until they're 35 or 36 or 37?

 

[EBF]

I have some problems with this as a way to measure RB longevity potential. In my opinion, the number of career touches that a back has accumulated is more important than his age.

People bring this up quite often but really, does real life hold true to this ideal?Wasn't Priest Holmes supposed to hold up for years because even though he was getting old, he didn't have a whole lot of touches?

Marshall Faulk generally had fewer touches than most feature RBs, yet he broke down right around the same age all RBs seem to. Corey Dillon looked awful that year despite not having that huge a workload for a career, with 1000+ less touches than Curtis Martin who broke down right around the same time, and meanwhile Emmitt Smith got more carries than most yet still made it to the same age we see most RBs get to before breaking down.

It just seems to me that with so many RBs not getting their "start" at being the feature guy until they're 26, 27, or 28 (currently guys like Priest, Jordan, C. Taylor, etc) if it were really the case that touches were more the determining factor we'd see more of these RBs going strong when they're 34 or 35 years old, yet we never see it.

If guys like Emmitt and Martin and many others can start getting the load at 21 or 22 years old and still last to 32 or 33, why can't guys that start getting the load at 24 or 25 or 26 or 27 make it to their mid-30's if touches are what really matter? LaMont Jordan has had fewer than half the touches of Clinton Portis, but does anyone really think that Jordan has more years left in the tank than Portis?

Age seems to have a much larger effect.

I don't know that you can necessarily conclude that. Recent trends may have favored age, but workload is most definitely a factor. Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and Eddie George all hit the wall well before they hit age 30. Ahman Green may be in the process of doing the same thing.Anyhow, Davis was effectively done when he was 27. Anderson had his best year when he was 26, had a final 1,000 yard season when he was 28, and was out of the NFL by the time he hit 30. George continued to get a lot of carries up until he was 30, but was never the same player after the 2000 season (when he was 27).

Based on the players above and other players that I've looked at, you often start to run into trouble at around 1700-1900 carries or around the age of 30 (these two often coincide).

Obviously it's not as simple as that. Some guys are built for longevity (Martin), whereas some quickly wear down (Anderson). Nevertheless, I start to get real nervous when a guy has logged about 1700 carries. That's why I'd really shy away from Shaun Alexander or Edgerrin James in a dynasty. Neither is in my top 10. I'm a little more forgiving of Tomlinson because I think he runs a little safer, but we might start to see him wear down in another year or two.

There are no sure things in FF. Some guys will surprise with their longevity and some will wash away sooner than expected. Nevertheless, if you consider both age and touches then I think you can effectively avoid some risk.

Eddie George is a good example of your point, and really the only one I can think of whereas there are dozens of examples to the contrary. Davis and Anderson are poor examples for your point because didn't both have basically career ending ACL injuries? Neither had met your "touch threshold" yet so to say that is the cause doesn't add up, and there are oodles upon oodles of guys who have flown right past that threshold without slowing down a bit, even the guy that best fits your arguement in Eddie George didn't slow down until way after that point.Again I pose the question...many guys start as a feature back at 21 or 22 and last 10-11 years, so why don't we ever see the guys who start as a feature back at 25 or 26 or 27 playing until they're 35 or 36 or 37?

I never said age is irrelevant. That's not what I believe at all. However, I do believe that there's a difference between a guy like Reueben Droughns and a guy like Edgerrin James. I think James has two years left at most, whereas I could see Droughns remaining productive for four years. Like I said, I think it's important to consider both age and workload. I don't like to draft backs who are over 30 (regardless of their career touches) and I don't like to draft backs with a ton of career touches (regardless of age).

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice thread. I had not seen this one before.

I wonder if Couch Potato has made any revisions/updates to this formula?

 

[mlball77]

WOW. This thread really contains some diamonds. Thanks (both for its creation... and recent bump).

 

[Jedimaster21]

I was looking through old threads that discussed longevity for a RB, and I found this. A very interesting topic...

 

[saintfool]

big time thumbs up

 

[coolnerd]

 

[BigTex]

 

[Couch Potato]

Some players have negative QYR since by formula they should have gone into serious decline already. This doesn't mean that specific player has done so, but it's certainly a warning. Players need ultimately to be evaluated individually, and there will always be outliers like Brad Johnson and Rod Smith, but the exceptions don't discredit QYR's general usefulness.

Shaun Alexander will be 29.0 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 3.2, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*29.0)=3.2. Age+QYR is 29.0+3.2=32.2.

Stephen Jackson will be 23.1 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 7.5, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*23.1)=7.5. Age+QYR is 23.1+7.5=30.6.

Tiki Barber will be 31.4 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 1.4, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*31.4)=1.4. Age+QYR is 31.4+1.4=32.8.

Tiki's total Age+QYR of 32.8 > Jackson's 30.6 because Tiki has already made it to age 31.4 whereas Jackson faces the extra risk of 8.3 years between his and Tiki's ages.

Finally, Curtis Martin will be 33.3 years old as of Sept 1. Using the formula, his Quality Years Remaining is 0.0, arrived at as follows: 24.5-(.735*33.3)=0.0. Age+QYR is 33.3+0.0=33.3.

As I said earlier, players need to be evaluated individually, and Martin's QYR of 0.0 is no promise he's through. But I think a QYR approaching zero should have alarm bells going off for anyone considering owning a player. Personally, any player I choose to own who has a QYR under 2.0 is someone I place little trust in and make sure I have a good contingency plan for.

Interesting to look back on my QYR (Quality Years Remaining) post from back then, and what has happened to the older players used as examples in the two seasons since.Both Brad Johnson and Rod Smith were essentially worthless beginning with the 2006 season (each had negative QYRs in 2005 but were still producing in 2005, hence my calling them 'outliers.').

Alexander, with a QYR of 3.2 entering 2006, was considered a top-5 dynasty pick still by many, and I (as well as others) were warning folks to beware. His bad season in 2006 surprised a lot of people, and now after 2007 he's considered garbage. So, from top-5 to garbage in two seasons. His decline occurred even faster than QYR suggested, but with a QYR of 24.5-(.735*30)=2.4 entering 2007, it was definitely time to be getting concerned. His QYR entering 2008 is 1.7, and as I said in the original post, anything under 2.0 says I'd better have a contingency plan ready because a guy could be done. Alexander may or may not be done, but I wouldn't be holding out much hope for any big revival.

Tiki's QYR was 1.4 years entering 2006. And guess what? He played very well in 2006 -- and then promptly retired.

Curtis Martin's QYR entering 2006 was 0.0. At the time of my post (June 2006) it was still thought that he'd be back for another season, gimpy knees and all. But his knees wouldn't let him. QYR equaled reality in his case. He had 0.0 left.

Two seasons later, I've gone further with QYR. The QYR parameters in my original post are based on a player data set that met certain standards of fantasy relevance, so players who never amounted to anything and were out of football in a year or two wouldn't dilute the usefulness of the QYR estimate.

What I wanted to do now is try to come up with different sets of parameters for QYR based on varying standards of fantasy relevance. A WR who has been a stud through his career can maybe play and be fantasy-relevant to 34+ for example, but a fringe starting WR is likely to be replaced sooner, say 30 maybe, not because he physically peaks or begins his physical decline sooner but because his peak level isn't as high and therefore his replacement point (he becomes a below-average player and a younger guy becomes starter) comes sooner.

So, I'm now looking at varying end point ages and QYR sets for varying levels of player: stud or elite, average starter, backup. With newer players who haven't proven anything yet (first and maybe second year in the league, depending on circumstances), my categorization would be based on draft round, and as a player's place in the league becomes more clear, his QYR category and end point used in my QYR calculation would be better defined. Of course, by the 2nd half of his career, when QYR is really most useful, you have a decent history on the player and a much better idea what category he belongs in.

This does bring more subjectivity into the mix (is Player X a category A, B, C player?), but I think it's better than calculating QYR for Randy Moss and Sinorice Moss using the same age 32 end point. Randy would require the Category A end point age, Sinorice the Category C age, and QYRs I think become more accurate for the lower level players like Sinorice doing it this way. Anyway, that's the goal, and I'll present what I currently have in a later post in this thread once I tighten things up some.

Finally, I've adjusted somewhat the peak age used in my QYR calculation. Since QYR is a rule of thumb estimate, I chose to simplify and round to the nearest year rather than nearest half-year. No big deal.

Was:

Peak:

QB = 28.5

RB = 24.5

WR = 26.5

TE = 25.5

PK = 28.5

Now using:

QB = 29

RB = 25

WR = 27

TE = 26

PK = 29

This changes the multiplication factor a bit too, but I'll give all that when I give the different factors for each QYR category in my later post, sometime today or in the next few days.

 

[PranksterJD]

Bumping for being awesome.

 

[BigTex]

Bumping for being awesome.

For the last year and a half I've searched for this thread. Thank you kind sir for the bump.

 

[higgins]

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

sofa spud, this is a great thread ... anxious for updates

 

[jeter23]

 

[geoff8695]

Mike Herman used to do an annual "Life of a Stud" article, that I found to be a useful starting point when considering how many quality years a top player had left. I don't remember seeing it this year though...

Does anyone know if Mike or another staff member created a 2008 version?

 

[gheemony]

Bump for update from CP, includin how he uses it to calculate the net present value of a player as mentioned in another thread.

Thanks in advance, CP! You're the man.

 

[Tau837]

 

[lyon812]

This warrants a bump every now and then.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

For some reason, CP will not share his current spreadsheet .....

Love reading this post/thread again.

 

[gheemony]

Yeah, this is one of the best thread ever. I have QYR built into my auction values formula. Would love to see the formula, but it must be a matter of national security.

 

[Couch Potato]

Wow, my old thread got bumped again. I'd better chime in here and not be so lazy.

Finally, I've adjusted somewhat the peak age used in my QYR calculation. Since QYR is a rule of thumb estimate, I chose to simplify and round to the nearest year rather than nearest half-year. No big deal.

Was:

Peak:

QB = 28.5

RB = 24.5

WR = 26.5

TE = 25.5

PK = 28.5

Now using:

QB = 29

RB = 25

WR = 27

TE = 26

PK = 29

This changes the multiplication factor a bit too, but I'll give all that when I give the different factors for each QYR category in my later post, sometime today or in the next few days.

Yeah, this is one of the best thread ever. I have QYR built into my auction values formula. Would love to see the formula, but it must be a matter of national security.

Sorry I didn't post the new factor in a few days back then like I thought I would. I never got back to the planned project of categorizing level A, B, C players and having a set of factors for each. My dad got sick a short time later and died that offseason (2008), and afterwards I had so much to do related to that. And then we started a new season and this sort of just got forgotten. Offseason 2009 was a blur, working 2 jobs and using the spare time to get Dad's house ready to sell. Matt Waldman asked if I could update this last year and make it a FBG article, and I just couldn't commit to anything more than I already had going. Yeah I know, whine whine whine. LOL. Anyway...Two years later (!!!) I'm happy to post the little factor change. It's not much of a difference of course since it's just caused by the rounding of the player peak ages in the formula.

QB = 29-((1-((34-29)/29))*age on Sept 1) = 29-(.828*age on Sept 1)

RB = 25-((1-((31-25)/25))*age on Sept 1) = 25-(.760*age on Sept 1)

WR = 27-((1-((32-27)/27))*age on Sept 1) = 27-(.815*age on Sept 1)

TE = 26-((1-((32-26)/26))*age on Sept 1) = 26-(.769*age on Sept 1)

PK = 29-((1-((36-29)/29))*age on Sept 1) = 29-(.759*age on Sept 1)

Will I ever get to working up different endpoints and factors for A, B, C players? Who knows. It's the offseason once again, life will be a lot more normal this offseason, so maybe. But the fantasy relevant players we care about are mostly A players from this standpoint, and that's who the above formula is meant to cover.

 

[Couch Potato]

For some reason, CP will not share his current spreadsheet .....

Love reading this post/thread again.

I can give this quick and dirty for now. Ages and QYR are as of 9/1/10, (originally this post was not adjusted to next Sept 1). This should probably cover most NFL position players that anyone would care about. Each position sorted by NFL team. ETA -- I added birth dates also. Player--Team--Draft--Rnd/Pk--Age--QYR--Birthdate

Leinart, Matt ARI Q-06 R1/10 27.3 6.4 05/11/83

St. Pierre, Brian ARI Q-03 R5/163 30.8 3.5 11/28/79

Warner, Kurt ARI Q-.94 UDFA 39.2 -3.4 06/22/71

Redman, Chris ATL Q-00 R3/75 33.2 1.6 07/07/77

Ryan, Matt ATL Q-08 R1/03 25.3 8.1 05/17/85

Beck, John BAL Q-07 R2/40 29.0 5.0 08/21/81

Flacco, Joe BAL Q-08 R1/18 25.6 7.8 01/16/85

Smith, Troy BAL Q-07 R5/174 26.1 7.4 07/20/84

Brohm, Brian BUF Q-08 R2/56 24.9 8.4 09/23/85

Edwards, Trent BUF Q-07 R3/92 26.8 6.8 10/30/83

Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF Q-05 R7/250 27.8 6.0 11/24/82

Delhomme, Jake CAR Q-.97 UDFA 35.6 -0.5 01/10/75

Feeley, A.J. CAR Q-01 R5/155 33.3 1.4 05/16/77

McCown, Josh CAR Q-02 R3/81 31.2 3.2 07/04/79

Moore, Matt CAR Q-07 UDFA 26.1 7.4 08/09/84

Cutler, Jay CHI Q-06 R1/11 27.3 6.4 04/29/83

Hanie, Caleb CHI Q-08 UDFA 25.0 8.3 09/11/85

O'Sullivan, J.T. CIN Q-02 R6/186 31.0 3.3 08/25/79

Palmer, Carson CIN Q-03 R1/01 30.7 3.6 12/27/79

Palmer, Jordan CIN Q-07 R6/205 26.3 7.3 05/30/84

Anderson, Derek CLE Q-05 R6/213 27.2 6.5 06/15/83

Quinn, Brady CLE Q-07 R1/22 25.8 7.6 10/27/84

Ratliff, Brett CLE Q-07 UDFA 25.1 8.3 08/08/85

Kitna, Jon DAL Q-.96 UDFA 37.9 -2.4 09/21/72

McGee, Stephen DAL Q-09 R4/101 26.9 6.7 09/27/83

Romo, Tony DAL Q-03 UDFA 30.4 3.9 04/21/80

Brandstater, Tom DEN Q-09 R6/174 25.9 7.6 10/21/84

Orton, Kyle DEN Q-05 R4/106 27.8 6.0 11/14/82

Simms, Chris DEN Q-03 R3/97 30.0 4.2 08/29/80

Culpepper, Daunte DET Q-.99 R1/11 33.6 1.2 01/28/77

Stafford, Matthew DET Q-09 R1/01 22.6 10.3 02/07/88

Stanton, Drew DET Q-07 R2/43 26.3 7.2 05/07/84

Flynn, Matt GB Q-08 R7/209 25.2 8.1 06/20/85

Rodgers, Aaron GB Q-05 R1/24 26.7 6.9 12/02/83

Grossman, Rex HOU Q-03 R1/22 30.0 4.2 08/23/80

Orlovsky, Dan HOU Q-05 R5/145 27.0 6.6 08/18/83

Schaub, Matt HOU Q-04 R3/90 29.2 4.8 06/25/81

Manning, Peyton IND Q-.98 R1/01 34.4 0.5 03/24/76

Painter, Curtis IND Q-09 R6/201 25.2 8.2 06/24/85

Sorgi, Jim IND Q-04 R6/193 29.7 4.4 12/03/80

Garrard, David JAC Q-02 R4/108 32.5 2.1 02/14/78

McCown, Luke JAC Q-04 R4/106 29.1 4.9 07/12/81

Cassel, Matt KC Q-05 R7/230 28.3 5.6 05/17/82

Croyle, Brodie KC Q-06 R3/85 27.6 6.2 02/06/83

Gutierrez, Matt KC Q-07 UDFA 26.2 7.3 06/09/84

Henne, Chad MIA Q-08 R2/57 25.2 8.2 07/02/85

Pennington, Chad MIA Q-00 R1/18 34.2 0.7 06/26/76

Thigpen, Tyler MIA Q-07 R7/217 26.4 7.2 04/14/84

White, Pat MIA Q-09 R2/44 24.5 8.7 02/25/86

Favre, Brett MIN Q-.91 R2/33 40.9 -4.8 10/10/69

Jackson, Tarvaris MIN Q-06 R2/64 27.4 6.4 04/21/83

Rosenfels, Sage MIN Q-01 R4/109 32.5 2.1 03/06/78

Brady, Tom NE Q-00 R6/199 33.1 1.6 08/03/77

Hoyer, Brian NE Q-09 UDFA 24.9 8.4 10/13/85

Brees, Drew NO Q-01 R2/32 31.6 2.8 01/15/79

Brunell, Mark NO Q-.93 R5/118 40.0 -4.1 09/17/70

Carr, David NYG Q-02 R1/01 31.1 3.2 07/21/79

Manning, Eli NYG Q-04 R1/01 29.7 4.5 01/03/81

Ainge, Erik NYJ Q-08 R5/162 24.2 9.0 06/12/86

Clemens, Kellen NYJ Q-06 R2/49 27.2 6.5 06/06/83

O'Connell, Kevin NYJ Q-08 R3/94 25.3 8.1 05/25/85

Sanchez, Mark NYJ Q-09 R1/05 23.8 9.3 11/11/86

Frye, Charlie OAK Q-05 R3/67 29.0 5.0 08/28/81

Gradkowski, Bruce OAK Q-06 R6/194 27.6 6.2 01/27/83

Losman, J.P. OAK Q-04 R1/22 29.5 4.6 03/12/81

Russell, JaMarcus OAK Q-07 R1/01 25.1 8.3 08/09/85

Kolb, Kevin PHI Q-07 R2/36 26.0 7.5 08/24/84

McNabb, Donovan PHI Q-.99 R1/02 33.8 1.1 11/25/76

Vick, Michael PHI Q-01 R1/01 30.2 4.0 06/26/80

Batch, Charlie PIT Q-.98 R2/60 35.7 -0.6 12/05/74

Dixon, Dennis PIT Q-08 R5/156 25.6 7.8 01/11/85

Roethlisberger, Ben PIT Q-04 R1/11 28.5 5.4 03/02/82

Rivers, Philip SD Q-04 R1/04 28.7 5.2 12/08/81

Volek, Billy SD Q-00 UDFA 34.3 0.6 04/28/76

Whitehurst, Charlie SD Q-06 R3/81 28.1 5.8 08/06/82

Hasselbeck, Matt SEA Q-.98 R6/187 34.9 0.1 09/25/75

Teel, Mike SEA Q-09 R6/178 24.7 8.6 01/06/86

Wallace, Seneca SEA Q-03 R4/110 30.1 4.1 08/06/80

Davis, Nate SF Q-09 R5/171 23.3 9.7 05/25/87

Hill, Shaun SF Q-02 UDFA 30.6 3.6 01/09/80

Smith, Alex SF Q-05 R1/01 26.3 7.2 05/07/84

Boller, Kyle STL Q-03 R1/19 29.2 4.8 06/17/81

Bulger, Marc STL Q-00 R6/168 33.4 1.4 04/05/77

Null, Keith STL Q-09 R6/196 24.9 8.4 09/24/85

Reilly, Mike STL Q-09 UDFA 25.7 7.8 01/01/85

Freeman, Josh TB Q-09 R1/17 22.6 10.3 01/13/88

Johnson, Josh TB Q-08 R5/160 24.3 8.9 05/15/86

Leftwich, Byron TB Q-03 R1/07 30.6 3.7 01/14/80

Collins, Kerry TEN Q-.95 R1/05 37.7 -2.2 12/30/72

Young, Vince TEN Q-06 R1/03 27.3 6.4 05/18/83

Bartel, Richard WAS Q-07 UDFA 27.6 6.2 02/03/83

Brennan, Colt WAS Q-08 R6/186 27.0 6.6 08/16/83

Player--Team--Draft--Rnd/Pk--Age--QYR--Birthdate

Dorsey, DeDe -- R-06 UDFA 26.1 5.2 08/01/84

Perry, Chris -- R-04 R1/26 28.7 3.2 12/27/81

Hightower, Tim ARI R-08 R5/149 24.3 6.5 05/23/86

Stephens-Howling, LaRod ARI R-09 R7/240 23.4 7.3 04/26/87

Wells, Chris ARI R-09 R1/31 22.1 8.2 08/07/88

Wright, Jason ARI R-04 UDFA 28.1 3.6 07/12/82

Norwood, Jerious ATL R-06 R3/79 27.1 4.4 07/29/83

Snelling, Jason ATL R-07 R7/244 26.7 4.7 12/29/83

Stecker, Aaron ATL R-.99 UDFA 34.8 -1.4 11/13/75

Turner, Michael ATL R-04 R5/154 28.5 3.3 02/13/82

McClain, Le'Ron BAL F-07 R4/137 25.7 5.5 12/27/84

McGahee, Willis BAL R-03 R1/23 28.9 3.1 10/20/81

Parmele, Jalen BAL R-08 R6/176 24.7 6.3 12/30/85

Rice, Ray BAL R-08 R2/55 23.6 7.1 01/22/87

Jackson, Fred BUF R-06 UDFA 29.5 2.6 02/20/81

Lynch, Marshawn BUF R-07 R1/12 24.4 6.5 04/22/86

Goodson, Mike CAR R-09 R4/111 23.3 7.3 05/23/87

Stewart, Jonathan CAR R-08 R1/13 23.4 7.2 03/21/87

Sutton, Tyrell CAR R-09 UDFA 23.7 7.0 12/19/86

Williams, DeAngelo CAR R-06 R1/27 27.4 4.2 04/25/83

Bell, Kahlil CHI R-09 UDFA 23.7 7.0 12/10/86

Forte, Matt CHI R-08 R2/44 24.7 6.2 12/10/85

Jones, Kevin CHI R-04 R1/30 28.0 3.7 08/21/82

Peterson, Adrian CHI R-02 R6/199 31.2 1.3 07/01/79

Wolfe, Garrett CHI R-07 R3/93 26.0 5.2 08/17/84

Benson, Cedric CIN R-05 R1/04 27.7 4.0 12/28/82

Johnson, Larry CIN R-03 R1/27 30.8 1.6 11/19/79

Leonard, Brian CIN R-07 R2/52 26.6 4.8 02/03/84

Scott, Bernard CIN R-09 R6/209 26.6 4.8 02/10/84

Davis, James CLE R-09 R6/195 24.7 6.3 01/01/86

Harrison, Jerome CLE R-06 R5/145 27.5 4.1 02/26/83

Jennings, Chris CLE R-09 UDFA 24.7 6.2 12/12/85

Lewis, Jamal CLE R-00 R1/05 31.0 1.4 08/29/79

Vickers, Lawrence CLE F-06 R6/180 27.3 4.2 05/08/83

Anderson, Deon DAL F-07 R6/195 27.6 4.0 01/27/83

Barber, Marion DAL R-05 R4/109 27.2 4.3 06/10/83

Choice, Tashard DAL R-08 R4/122 25.8 5.4 11/20/84

Jones, Felix DAL R-08 R1/22 23.3 7.3 05/08/87

Buckhalter, Correll DEN R-01 R4/121 31.8 0.8 11/11/78

Hillis, Peyton DEN F-08 R7/227 24.6 6.3 01/21/86

Jordan, LaMont DEN R-01 R2/49 31.8 0.8 11/11/78

Moreno, Knowshon DEN R-09 R1/12 23.1 7.4 07/16/87

Brown, Aaron DET R-09 R6/192 24.7 6.2 12/10/85

Morris, Maurice DET R-02 R2/54 30.8 1.6 12/01/79

Peerman, Cedric DET R-09 R6/185 23.9 6.8 10/10/86

Smith, Kevin DET R-08 R3/64 23.7 7.0 12/17/86

Grant, Ryan GB R-05 UDFA 27.7 3.9 12/09/82

Green, Ahman GB R-.98 R3/76 33.5 -0.5 02/16/77

Jackson, Brandon GB R-07 R2/63 24.9 6.1 10/02/85

Kuhn, John GB F-05 UDFA 27.8 3.9 11/09/82

Wynn, DeShawn GB R-07 R7/228 26.9 4.6 10/09/83

Brown, Chris HOU R-03 R3/93 29.4 2.7 04/17/81

Foster, Arian HOU R-09 UDFA 23.9 6.8 09/24/86

Henry, Chris HOU R-07 R2/50 25.2 5.8 06/06/85

Moats, Ryan HOU R-05 R3/77 27.7 3.9 12/17/82

Slaton, Steve HOU R-08 R3/89 24.7 6.3 01/04/86

Addai, Joseph IND R-06 R1/30 27.3 4.2 05/03/83

Brown, Donald IND R-09 R1/27 23.4 7.2 04/11/87

Hart, Mike IND R-08 R6/202 24.4 6.5 04/09/86

Simpson, Chad IND R-08 UDFA 26.7 4.7 01/01/84

Jennings, Rashad JAC R-09 R7/250 25.4 5.7 03/26/85

Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC R-06 R2/60 25.4 5.7 03/23/85

Jones, Greg JAC F-04 R2/55 29.4 2.6 04/04/81

Battle, Jackie KC R-07 UDFA 26.9 4.5 10/01/83

Charles, Jamaal KC R-08 R3/73 23.7 7.0 12/27/86

Savage, Dantrell KC R-08 UDFA 25.5 5.6 02/15/85

Smith, Kolby KC R-07 R5/148 25.7 5.5 12/15/84

Williams, Javarris KC R-09 R7/212 24.4 6.5 04/08/86

Brown, Ronnie MIA R-05 R1/02 28.7 3.2 12/12/81

Cobbs, Patrick MIA R-06 UDFA 27.6 4.0 01/31/83

Hilliard, Lex MIA R-08 R6/204 26.1 5.2 07/30/84

Polite, Lousaka MIA F-04 UDFA 29.0 3.0 09/14/81

Sheets, Kory MIA R-09 UDFA 25.4 5.7 03/31/85

Williams, Ricky MIA R-.99 R1/05 33.3 -0.3 05/21/77

Peterson, Adrian MIN R-07 R1/07 25.4 5.7 03/21/85

Taylor, Chester MIN R-02 R6/207 30.9 1.5 09/22/79

Young, Albert MIN R-08 UDFA 25.5 5.6 02/25/85

Faulk, Kevin NE R-.99 R2/46 34.2 -1.0 06/05/76

Green-Ellis, BenJarvus NE R-08 UDFA 25.2 5.9 07/02/85

Maroney, Laurence NE R-06 R1/21 25.6 5.6 02/05/85

Morris, Sammy NE R-00 R5/156 33.4 -0.4 03/23/77

Taylor, Fred NE R-.98 R1/09 34.6 -1.3 01/27/76

Bell, Mike NO R-06 UDFA 27.4 4.2 04/23/83

Bush, Reggie NO R-06 R1/02 25.5 5.6 03/02/85

Evans, Heath NO F-01 R3/82 31.7 0.9 12/30/78

Hamilton, Lynell NO R-08 UDFA 25.1 5.9 08/05/85

Thomas, Pierre NO R-07 UDFA 25.7 5.5 12/18/84

Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG R-07 R7/250 24.5 6.4 03/19/86

Brown, Andre NYG R-09 R4/129 23.7 7.0 12/15/86

Jacobs, Brandon NYG R-05 R4/110 28.2 3.6 07/06/82

Johnson, Gartrell NYG R-09 R4/134 24.2 6.6 06/21/86

Ware, Danny NYG R-07 UDFA 25.5 5.6 02/18/85

Greene, Shonn NYJ R-09 R3/65 25.0 6.0 08/21/85

Jones, Thomas NYJ R-00 R1/07 32.0 0.7 08/19/78

Washington, Chauncey NYJ R-08 R7/213 25.3 5.7 04/29/85

Washington, Leon NYJ R-06 R4/117 28.0 3.7 08/29/82

Woodhead, Danny NYJ R-08 UDFA 25.6 5.5 01/25/85

Bush, Michael OAK R-07 R4/100 26.2 5.1 06/16/84

Fargas, Justin OAK R-03 R3/96 30.6 1.7 01/25/80

McFadden, Darren OAK R-08 R1/04 23.0 7.5 08/27/87

Russell, Gary OAK R-07 UDFA 24.0 6.8 09/08/86

Buckley, Eldra PHI R-07 UDFA 25.2 5.9 06/23/85

McCoy, LeSean PHI R-09 R2/53 22.1 8.2 07/12/88

Weaver, Leonard PHI F-05 UDFA 27.9 3.8 09/23/82

Westbrook, Brian PHI R-02 R3/91 31.0 1.4 09/02/79

Mendenhall, Rashard PIT R-08 R1/23 23.2 7.4 06/19/87

Moore, Mewelde PIT R-04 R4/119 28.1 3.6 07/24/82

Parker, Willie PIT R-04 UDFA 29.8 2.3 11/11/80

Summers, Frank PIT F-09 R5/169 25.0 6.0 09/06/85

Bennett, Michael SD R-01 R1/27 32.1 0.6 08/13/78

Hester, Jacob SD F-08 R3/69 25.3 5.8 05/08/85

Sproles, Darren SD R-05 R4/130 27.2 4.3 06/20/83

Tolbert, Mike SD F-08 UDFA 24.8 6.2 11/23/85

Tomlinson, LaDainian SD R-01 R1/05 31.2 1.3 06/23/79

Forsett, Justin SEA R-08 R7/233 24.9 6.1 10/14/85

Jones, Julius SEA R-04 R2/43 29.0 2.9 08/14/81

Rankin, Louis SEA R-08 R7/221 25.3 5.8 05/04/85

Coffee, Glen SF R-09 R3/74 23.3 7.3 05/01/87

Gore, Frank SF R-05 R3/65 27.3 4.3 05/14/83

Robinson, Michael SF F-06 R4/100 27.6 4.0 02/06/83

Darby, Kenneth STL R-07 R7/246 27.7 4.0 12/26/82

Gado, Samkon STL R-05 UDFA 27.8 3.9 11/13/82

Jackson, Steven STL R-04 R1/24 27.1 4.4 07/22/83

Ogbonnaya, Chris STL R-09 R7/211 24.3 6.5 05/20/86

Graham, Earnest TB R-03 UDFA 30.6 1.7 01/15/80

Smith, Clifton TB R-08 UDFA 25.2 5.9 07/04/85

Ward, Derrick TB R-04 R7/235 30.0 2.2 08/30/80

Williams, Carnell TB R-05 R1/05 28.4 3.4 04/21/82

Johnson, Chris TEN R-08 R1/24 24.9 6.0 09/23/85

Ringer, Javon TEN R-09 R5/173 23.6 7.1 02/02/87

White, LenDale TEN R-06 R2/45 25.7 5.5 12/20/84

Betts, Ladell WAS R-02 R2/56 31.0 1.4 08/27/79

Cartwright, Rock WAS R-02 R7/257 30.7 1.6 12/03/79

Ganther, Quinton WAS R-06 R7/246 26.1 5.1 07/15/84

Mason, Marcus WAS R-07 UDFA 26.2 5.1 06/23/84

Portis, Clinton WAS R-02 R2/51 29.0 3.0 09/01/81

Sellers, Mike WAS F-.98 UDFA 35.1 -1.7 07/21/75

Player--Team--Draft--Rnd/Pk--Age--QYR--Birthdate

Burress, Plaxico -- W-00 R1/08 33.1 0.1 08/12/77

Jones, Matt -- W-05 R1/21 27.4 4.7 04/22/83

Boldin, Anquan ARI W-03 R2/54 29.9 2.6 10/03/80

Breaston, Steve ARI W-07 R5/142 27.0 5.0 08/20/83

Doucet, Early ARI W-08 R3/81 24.8 6.8 10/28/85

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI W-04 R1/03 27.0 5.0 08/31/83

Urban, Jerheme ARI W-03 UDFA 29.8 2.7 11/26/80

Booker, Marty ATL W-.99 R3/78 34.1 -0.8 07/31/76

Douglas, Harry ATL W-08 R3/84 25.0 6.7 09/16/85

Finneran, Brian ATL W-.98 UDFA 34.6 -1.2 01/31/76

Jenkins, Michael ATL W-04 R1/29 28.2 4.0 06/18/82

White, Roddy ATL W-05 R1/27 28.8 3.5 11/02/81

Clayton, Mark BAL W-05 R1/22 28.2 4.0 07/02/82

Harper, Justin BAL W-08 R7/215 25.5 6.2 02/24/85

Mason, Derrick BAL W-.97 R4/098 36.6 -2.8 01/17/74

Smith, Marcus BAL W-08 R4/106 25.6 6.1 01/11/85

Washington, Kelley BAL W-03 R3/65 31.0 1.7 08/21/79

Williams, Demetrius BAL W-06 R4/111 27.4 4.6 03/28/83

Evans, Lee BUF W-04 R1/13 29.5 3.0 03/11/81

Hardy, James BUF W-08 R2/41 24.7 6.9 12/24/85

Johnson, Steve BUF W-08 R7/224 28.7 3.6 01/01/82

Owens, Terrell BUF W-.96 R3/89 36.7 -2.9 12/07/73

Parrish, Roscoe BUF W-05 R2/55 28.1 4.1 07/16/82

Reed, Josh BUF W-02 R2/36 30.3 2.3 05/01/80

Jarrett, Dwayne CAR W-07 R2/45 24.0 7.5 09/11/86

Martin, Charly CAR W-09 UDFA 9.7 19.1 01/01/01

Moore, Kenneth CAR W-08 R5/136 25.5 6.2 02/19/85

Muhammad, Muhsin CAR W-.96 R2/43 37.3 -3.4 05/05/73

Smith, Steve CAR W-01 R3/74 31.3 1.5 05/12/79

Aromashodu, Devin CHI W-06 R7/233 26.3 5.6 05/23/84

Bennett, Earl CHI W-08 R3/70 23.4 7.9 03/23/87

Davis, Rashied CHI W-05 UDFA 31.1 1.7 07/24/79

Hester, Devin CHI W-06 R2/57 27.8 4.3 11/04/82

Iglesias, Juaquin CHI W-09 R3/99 23.0 8.2 08/22/87

Knox, Johnny CHI W-09 R5/140 23.8 7.6 11/03/86

Caldwell, Andre CIN W-08 R3/97 25.4 6.3 04/15/85

Coles, Laveranues CIN W-00 R3/78 32.7 0.4 12/29/77

Cosby, Quan CIN W-09 UDFA 27.7 4.4 12/23/82

Ochocinco, Chad CIN W-01 R2/36 32.6 0.4 01/09/78

Simpson, Jerome CIN W-08 R2/46 24.6 7.0 02/04/86

Cribbs, Joshua CLE W-05 UDFA 27.2 4.8 06/09/83

Furrey, Mike CLE W-00 UDFA 33.3 -0.1 05/12/77

Massaquoi, Mohamed CLE W-09 R2/50 23.8 7.6 11/24/86

Robiskie, Brian CLE W-09 R2/36 22.7 8.5 12/03/87

Stallworth, Donte' CLE W-02 R1/13 29.8 2.7 11/10/80

Steptoe, Syndric CLE W-07 R7/234 25.7 6.0 12/06/84

Stuckey, Chansi CLE W-07 R7/235 26.9 5.1 10/04/83

Austin, Miles DAL W-06 UDFA 26.8 5.1 11/02/83

Crayton, Patrick DAL W-04 R7/216 31.4 1.4 04/07/79

Hurd, Sam DAL W-06 UDFA 25.4 6.3 04/24/85

Ogletree, Kevin DAL W-09 UDFA 23.1 8.2 08/05/87

Williams, Roy DAL W-04 R1/07 28.7 3.6 12/20/81

Gaffney, Jabar DEN W-02 R2/33 29.7 2.8 12/01/80

Lloyd, Brandon DEN W-03 R4/124 29.2 3.2 07/05/81

Marshall, Brandon DEN W-06 R4/119 26.4 5.5 03/23/84

McKinley, Kenny DEN W-09 R5/141 23.6 7.8 01/31/87

Royal, Eddie DEN W-08 R2/42 24.3 7.2 05/21/86

Stokley, Brandon DEN W-.99 R4/105 34.2 -0.9 06/23/76

Jennings, Adam DET W-06 R6/184 27.8 4.4 11/17/82

Johnson, Bryant DET W-03 R1/17 29.5 3.0 03/07/81

Johnson, Calvin DET W-07 R1/02 24.9 6.7 09/25/85

Northcutt, Dennis DET W-00 R2/32 32.7 0.4 12/22/77

Williams, Derrick DET W-09 R3/82 24.2 7.3 07/06/86

Driver, Donald GB W-.99 R7/213 35.6 -2.0 02/02/75

Jennings, Greg GB W-06 R2/52 26.9 5.0 09/21/83

Jones, James GB W-07 R3/78 26.4 5.5 03/31/84

Nelson, Jordy GB W-08 R2/36 25.3 6.4 05/31/85

Swain, Brett GB W-08 R7/217 25.6 6.1 01/21/85

Anderson, David HOU W-06 R7/251 27.1 4.9 07/28/83

Davis, Andre HOU W-02 R2/47 31.2 1.6 06/12/79

Johnson, Andre HOU W-03 R1/03 29.1 3.3 07/11/81

Jones, Jacoby HOU W-07 R3/73 26.1 5.7 07/11/84

Martinez, Glenn HOU W-04 UDFA 28.8 3.6 11/30/81

Walter, Kevin HOU W-03 R7/255 29.1 3.3 08/04/81

Baskett, Hank IND W-06 UDFA 28.0 4.2 09/04/82

Collie, Austin IND W-09 R4/127 24.8 6.8 11/11/85

Garcon, Pierre IND W-08 R6/205 25.1 6.6 08/08/85

Gonzalez, Anthony IND W-07 R1/32 26.0 5.9 09/18/84

Hall, Roy IND W-07 R5/169 26.7 5.2 12/08/83

Wayne, Reggie IND W-01 R1/30 31.8 1.1 11/17/78

Dillard, Jarett JAC W-09 R5/144 24.7 6.9 12/21/85

Holt, Torry JAC W-.99 R1/06 34.2 -0.9 06/05/76

Sims-Walker, Mike JAC W-07 R3/79 25.8 6.0 11/11/84

Thomas, Mike JAC W-09 R4/107 23.2 8.1 06/04/87

Underwood, Tiquan JAC W-09 R7/253 23.5 7.8 02/17/87

Williamson, Troy JAC W-05 R1/07 27.3 4.7 04/30/83

Bowe, Dwayne KC W-07 R1/23 26.1 5.7 07/21/84

Chambers, Chris KC W-01 R2/52 32.1 0.9 08/12/78

Copper, Terrance KC W-04 UDFA 28.5 3.8 03/12/82

Darling, Devard KC W-04 R3/82 28.4 3.9 04/16/82

Lawrence, Quinten KC W-09 R6/175 25.9 5.9 09/21/84

Long, Lance KC W-08 UDFA 25.3 6.4 05/04/85

Wade, Bobby KC W-03 R5/139 29.5 3.0 02/25/81

Bess, Davone MIA W-08 UDFA 25.0 6.7 09/13/85

Camarillo, Greg MIA W-05 UDFA 28.4 3.9 04/18/82

Ginn, Ted MIA W-07 R1/09 25.4 6.3 04/12/85

Hartline, Brian MIA W-09 R4/108 23.8 7.6 11/22/86

Turner, Patrick MIA W-09 R3/87 23.3 8.0 05/19/87

Berrian, Bernard MIN W-04 R3/78 29.7 2.8 12/27/80

Harvin, Percy MIN W-09 R1/22 22.3 8.9 05/28/88

Johnson, Jaymar MIN W-08 R6/193 26.1 5.7 07/10/84

Lewis, Greg MIN W-03 UDFA 30.6 2.1 02/12/80

Rice, Sidney MIN W-07 R2/44 24.0 7.4 09/01/86

Aiken, Sam NE W-03 R4/127 29.7 2.8 12/14/80

Edelman, Julian NE W-09 R7/232 24.3 7.2 05/22/86

Moss, Randy NE W-.98 R1/21 33.5 -0.3 02/13/77

Stanback, Isaiah NE W-07 R4/103 26.0 5.8 08/16/84

Tate, Brandon NE W-09 R3/83 22.9 8.3 10/05/87

Welker, Wes NE W-04 UDFA 29.3 3.1 05/01/81

Colston, Marques NO W-06 R7/252 27.2 4.8 06/05/83

Henderson, Devery NO W-04 R2/50 28.4 3.8 03/26/82

Meachem, Robert NO W-07 R1/27 25.9 5.9 09/28/84

Moore, Lance NO W-05 UDFA 27.0 5.0 08/31/83

Barden, Ramses NYG W-09 R3/85 24.7 6.9 01/01/86

Hagan, Derek NYG W-06 R3/82 25.9 5.9 09/21/84

Hixon, Domenik NYG W-06 R4/130 25.9 5.9 10/08/84

Manningham, Mario NYG W-08 R3/95 24.3 7.2 05/25/86

Moss, Sinorice NYG W-06 R2/44 26.7 5.3 12/28/83

Nicks, Hakeem NYG W-09 R1/29 21.8 9.2 11/14/88

Smith, Steve NYG W-07 R2/51 25.3 6.4 05/06/85

Allison, Aundrae NYJ W-07 R5/146 26.2 5.7 06/25/84

Clowney, David NYJ W-07 R5/157 25.1 6.5 07/08/85

Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ W-04 R4/108 28.2 4.0 06/16/82

Edwards, Braylon NYJ W-05 R1/03 27.5 4.6 02/21/83

Smith, Brad NYJ W-06 R4/103 26.7 5.2 12/12/83

Wright, Wallace NYJ W-06 UDFA 26.6 5.3 02/01/84

Heyward-Bey, Darius OAK W-09 R1/07 23.5 7.8 02/26/87

Higgins, Johnny Lee OAK W-07 R3/99 27.0 5.0 09/08/83

Murphy, Louis OAK W-09 R4/124 23.3 8.0 05/11/87

Schilens, Chaz OAK W-08 R7/226 24.8 6.8 11/07/85

Walker, Javon OAK W-02 R1/20 31.9 1.0 10/14/78

Avant, Jason PHI W-06 R4/109 27.4 4.7 04/20/83

Brown, Reggie PHI W-05 R2/35 29.6 2.9 01/13/81

Curtis, Kevin PHI W-03 R3/74 32.1 0.8 07/17/78

Jackson, DeSean PHI W-08 R2/49 23.8 7.6 12/01/86

Maclin, Jeremy PHI W-09 R1/19 22.3 8.8 05/11/88

Holmes, Santonio PIT W-06 R1/25 26.5 5.4 03/03/84

Sweed, Limas PIT W-08 R2/53 25.7 6.1 12/25/84

Wallace, Mike PIT W-09 R3/84 24.1 7.4 08/01/86

Ward, Hines PIT W-.98 R3/92 34.5 -1.1 03/08/76

Byrd, Demetrius SD W-09 R7/224 24.2 7.3 06/30/86

Davis, Craig SD W-07 R1/30 24.9 6.7 10/05/85

Floyd, Malcom SD W-04 UDFA 29.0 3.4 09/08/81

Jackson, Vincent SD W-05 R2/61 27.6 4.5 01/14/83

Naanee, Legedu SD W-07 R5/172 27.0 5.0 09/16/83

Osgood, Kassim SD W-03 UDFA 30.3 2.3 05/20/80

Branch, Deion SEA W-02 R2/65 31.1 1.6 07/18/79

Burleson, Nate SEA W-03 R3/71 29.0 3.3 08/19/81

Butler, Deon SEA W-09 R3/91 24.7 6.9 01/04/86

Houshmandzadeh, TJ SEA W-01 R7/204 32.9 0.2 09/26/77

Obomanu, Ben SEA W-06 R7/249 26.8 5.1 10/30/83

Battle, Arnaz SF W-03 R6/197 30.5 2.1 02/22/80

Bruce, Isaac SF W-.94 R2/33 37.8 -3.8 11/10/72

Crabtree, Michael SF W-09 R1/10 23.0 8.3 09/14/87

Hill, Jason SF W-07 R3/76 25.5 6.2 02/20/85

Jones, Brandon SF W-05 R3/96 27.9 4.3 10/06/82

Morgan, Josh SF W-08 R6/174 25.2 6.5 06/20/85

Amendola, Danny STL W-08 UDFA 24.8 6.8 11/02/85

Avery, Donnie STL W-08 R2/33 26.2 5.6 06/12/84

Burton, Keenan STL W-08 R4/128 25.8 5.9 10/29/84

Foster, Brooks STL W-09 R5/160 24.4 7.1 04/09/86

Gibson, Brandon STL W-09 R6/194 23.1 8.2 08/13/87

Kent, Jordan STL W-07 R6/210 26.1 5.7 07/24/84

Martin, Ruvell STL W-04 UDFA 28.1 4.1 08/10/82

Robinson, Laurent STL W-07 R3/75 25.3 6.4 05/20/85

Bradley, Mark TB W-05 R2/39 28.6 3.7 01/29/82

Bryant, Antonio TB W-02 R2/63 29.5 3.0 03/09/81

Clark, Brian TB W-06 UDFA 26.7 5.3 12/26/83

Clayton, Michael TB W-04 R1/15 27.9 4.3 10/13/82

Stovall, Maurice TB W-06 R3/90 25.5 6.2 02/21/85

Stroughter, Sammie TB W-09 R7/233 24.7 6.9 01/03/86

Britt, Kenny TEN W-09 R1/30 21.9 9.1 09/19/88

Edison, Dominique TEN W-09 R6/206 24.1 7.3 07/16/86

Gage, Justin TEN W-03 R5/143 29.6 2.9 01/25/81

Hawkins, Lavelle TEN W-08 R4/126 24.1 7.3 07/12/86

Jones, Mark TEN W-04 R7/206 29.8 2.7 11/03/80

Washington, Nate TEN W-05 UDFA 27.0 5.0 08/28/83

Kelly, Malcolm WAS W-08 R2/51 23.7 7.7 12/30/86

Mitchell, Marko WAS W-09 R7/243 25.5 6.2 03/11/85

Moss, Santana WAS W-01 R1/16 31.3 1.5 06/01/79

Randle El, Antwaan WAS W-02 R2/62 31.0 1.7 08/17/79

Thomas, Devin WAS W-08 R2/34 23.8 7.6 11/15/86

Player--Team--Draft--Rnd/Pk--Age--QYR--Birthdate

Patrick, Ben ARI T-07 R7/215 26.0 6.0 08/23/84

Gonzalez, Tony ATL T-.97 R1/13 34.5 -0.5 02/27/76

Peelle, Justin ATL T-02 R4/103 31.5 1.8 03/15/79

Zelenka, Joe ATL T-.99 UDFA 34.5 -0.5 03/09/76

Heap, Todd BAL T-01 R1/31 30.5 2.6 03/16/80

Smith, L.J. BAL T-03 R2/61 30.3 2.7 05/13/80

Fine, Derek BUF T-08 R4/132 27.0 5.2 08/24/83

Nelson, Shawn BUF T-09 R4/121 24.9 6.8 10/05/85

Schouman, Derek BUF T-07 R7/222 25.5 6.7 03/11/85

Barnidge, Gary CAR T-08 R5/141 24.9 6.8 09/22/85

King, Jeff CAR T-06 R5/155 27.5 4.8 02/19/83

Rosario, Dante CAR T-07 R5/155 25.9 6.1 10/25/84

Clark, Desmond CHI T-.99 R6/179 33.4 0.3 04/20/77

Davis, Kellen CHI T-08 R5/158 24.9 6.9 10/11/85

Olsen, Greg CHI T-07 R1/31 25.5 6.4 03/11/85

Coats, Daniel CIN T-07 UDFA 26.4 5.7 04/16/84

Coffman, Chase CIN T-09 R3/98 23.8 7.7 11/10/86

Estandia, Greg CLE T-06 UDFA 27.8 4.6 11/18/82

Heiden, Steve CLE T-.99 R3/69 33.9 -0.1 09/21/76

Moore, Evan CLE T-08 UDFA 25.7 6.3 01/03/85

Royal, Robert CLE T-02 R5/160 31.3 1.9 05/15/79

Bennett, Martellus DAL T-08 R2/61 23.5 7.9 03/10/87

Phillips, John DAL T-09 R6/208 23.2 8.1 06/11/87

Witten, Jason DAL T-03 R3/69 28.3 4.2 05/06/82

Graham, Daniel DEN T-02 R1/21 31.8 1.5 11/16/78

Quinn, Richard DEN T-09 R2/64 24.0 7.5 09/06/86

Scheffler, Tony DEN T-06 R2/61 27.5 4.8 02/15/83

Fitzsimmons, Casey DET T-03 UDFA 29.9 3.0 10/10/80

Heller, Will DET T-03 UDFA 29.5 3.3 02/28/81

Pettigrew, Brandon DET T-09 R1/20 25.5 6.4 02/23/85

Finley, Jermichael GB T-08 R3/91 23.4 8.0 03/26/87

Lee, Donald GB T-03 R5/156 30.0 2.9 08/31/80

Casey, James HOU T-09 R5/152 25.9 6.0 09/22/84

Daniels, Owen HOU T-06 R4/098 27.8 4.6 11/09/82

Hill, Anthony HOU T-09 R4/122 25.7 6.3 01/02/85

Clark, Dallas IND T-03 R1/24 31.2 2.0 06/12/79

Robinson, Gijon IND T-07 UDFA 25.9 6.1 10/12/84

Santi, Tom IND T-08 R6/196 24.8 6.9 11/22/85

Tamme, Jacob IND T-08 R4/127 25.5 6.4 03/15/85

Lewis, Marcedes JAC T-06 R1/28 26.3 5.8 05/19/84

Miller, Zach JAC T-09 R6/180 25.9 6.1 10/04/84

Cottam, Brad KC T-08 R3/76 25.7 6.2 12/28/84

Pope, Leonard KC T-06 R3/72 27.0 5.2 09/09/83

Ryan, Sean KC T-04 R5/144 30.4 2.6 03/27/80

Fasano, Anthony MIA T-06 R2/53 26.4 5.7 04/20/84

Haynos, Joey MIA T-08 UDFA 26.0 6.0 08/28/84

Kleinsasser, Jim MIN T-.99 R2/44 33.6 0.2 01/31/77

Mills, Garrett MIN T-06 R4/106 26.7 5.4 12/14/83

Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN T-03 R3/91 30.2 2.8 06/18/80

Baker, Chris NE T-02 R3/88 30.8 2.3 11/18/79

Watson, Benjamin NE T-04 R1/32 29.7 3.2 12/18/80

Campbell, Dan NO T-.99 R3/79 34.4 -0.4 04/13/76

Miller, Billy NO T-.99 R7/218 33.4 0.3 04/24/77

Shockey, Jeremy NO T-02 R1/14 30.0 2.9 08/18/80

Thomas, David NO T-06 R3/86 27.2 5.1 07/05/83

Beckum, Travis NYG T-09 R3/100 23.6 7.8 01/24/87

Boss, Kevin NYG T-07 R5/153 26.6 5.5 01/11/84

Pascoe, Bear NYG T-09 R6/184 24.5 7.1 02/23/86

Dearth, James NYJ T-.99 R6/191 34.6 -0.6 01/22/76

Keller, Dustin NYJ T-08 R1/30 25.9 6.1 09/25/84

Miller, Zach OAK T-07 R2/38 24.7 7.0 12/11/85

Stewart, Tony OAK T-01 R5/147 31.1 2.1 08/09/79

Celek, Brent PHI T-07 R5/162 25.6 6.3 01/25/85

Ingram, Cornelius PHI T-09 R5/153 25.2 6.6 06/10/85

Rucker, Martin PHI T-08 R4/111 25.3 6.5 05/04/85

Smith, Alex PHI T-05 R3/71 28.3 4.2 05/22/82

Miller, Heath PIT T-05 R1/30 27.9 4.6 10/22/82

Spaeth, Matt PIT T-07 R3/77 26.8 5.4 11/24/83

Gates, Antonio SD T-03 UDFA 30.2 2.8 06/18/80

Wilson, Kris SD T-04 R2/61 29.0 3.7 08/22/81

Carlson, John SEA T-08 R2/38 26.3 5.8 05/12/84

Davis, Vernon SF T-06 R1/06 26.6 5.6 01/31/84

Walker, Delanie SF T-06 R6/175 26.1 6.0 08/12/84

Fells, Daniel STL T-06 UDFA 26.9 5.3 09/23/83

McMichael, Randy STL T-02 R4/114 31.2 2.0 06/28/79

Stevens, Jerramy TB T-02 R1/28 30.8 2.3 11/13/79

Winslow, Kellen TB T-04 R1/06 27.1 5.1 07/21/83

Cook, Jared TEN T-09 R3/089 23.4 8.0 04/07/87

Crumpler, Alge TEN T-01 R2/35 32.7 0.9 12/23/77

Scaife, Bo TEN T-05 R6/179 29.7 3.2 01/06/81

Cooley, Chris WAS T-04 R3/81 28.1 4.4 07/11/82

Davis, Fred WAS T-08 R2/48 24.6 7.1 01/15/86

Yoder, Todd WAS T-00 UDFA 32.5 1.0 03/18/78

Player--Team--Draft--Rnd/Pk--Age--QYR--Birthdate

Nugent, Mike ARI K-05 R2/47 28.5 7.4 03/02/82

Rackers, Neil ARI K-00 R6/169 34.0 3.2 08/16/76

Bryant, Matt ATL K-02 UDFA 35.3 2.3 05/29/75

Cundiff, Billy BAL K-02 UDFA 30.4 5.9 03/30/80

Lindell, Rian BUF K-00 UDFA 33.6 3.5 01/20/77

Kasay, John CAR K-.91 R4/098 40.8 -2.0 10/27/69

Gould, Robbie CHI K-05 UDFA 27.7 8.0 12/06/82

Graham, Shayne CIN K-01 UDFA 32.7 4.2 12/09/77

Dawson, Phil CLE K-.98 UDFA 35.6 2.0 01/23/75

Buehler, David DAL K-09 R5/172 23.6 11.1 02/05/87

Folk, Nick DAL K-07 R6/178 25.8 9.4 11/05/84

Prater, Matt DEN K-06 UDFA 26.1 9.2 08/10/84

Hanson, Jason DET K-.92 R2/56 40.2 -1.5 06/17/70

Crosby, Mason GB K-07 R6/193 26.0 9.3 09/03/84

Brown, Kris HOU K-.99 R7/228 33.7 3.4 12/23/76

Stover, Matt IND K-.90 R12/329 42.6 -3.3 01/27/68

Vinatieri, Adam IND K-.96 UDFA 37.7 0.4 12/28/72

Scobee, Josh JAC K-04 R5/137 28.2 7.6 06/23/82

Succop, Ryan KC K-09 R7/256 24.0 10.8 09/19/86

Carpenter, Dan MIA K-08 UDFA 24.8 10.2 11/25/85

Longwell, Ryan MIN K-.97 UDFA 36.0 1.7 08/16/74

Gostkowski, Stephen NE K-06 R4/118 26.6 8.8 01/28/84

Carney, John NO K-.87 UDFA 46.4 -6.2 04/20/64

Hartley, Garrett NO K-08 UDFA 24.3 10.6 05/16/86

Tynes, Lawrence NYG K-01 UDFA 32.3 4.5 05/03/78

Feely, Jay NYJ K-01 UDFA 34.3 3.0 05/23/76

Janikowski, Sebastian OAK K-00 R1/17 32.5 4.3 03/02/78

Akers, David PHI K-.97 UDFA 35.7 1.9 12/09/74

Reed, Jeff PIT K-02 UDFA 31.4 5.2 04/09/79

Kaeding, Nate SD K-04 R3/65 28.4 7.4 03/26/82

Mare, Olindo SEA K-.96 UDFA 37.2 0.8 06/06/73

Nedney, Joe SF K-.95 UDFA 37.4 0.6 03/22/73

Brown, Josh STL K-03 R7/222 31.3 5.2 04/29/79

Barth, Connor TB K-08 UDFA 24.4 10.5 04/11/86

Bironas, Rob TEN K-02 UDFA 32.6 4.3 01/29/78

Gano, Graham WAS K-09 UDFA 23.4 11.3 04/09/87

 

[Couch Potato]

Bump for update from CP, includin how he uses it to calculate the net present value of a player as mentioned in another thread. Thanks in advance, CP! You're the man.

This net present value idea is something I definitely want to get back to. For those who don't know what gheemony is talking about, a few years ago I was working on taking a typical player's fantasy point career curve and discounting each year back to today to get a single NPV for a player. It values today much more than 3 or 4 years from now, but also recognizes that players don't go forever, and attempts to put a number on overall remaining value. I was messing with various discount rates and settled on a high rate due to the relatively high uncertainty associated with future prediction. I didn't trust my results enough to really follow through though, but 4 seasons later it looks like maybe I should have.I remember when I first did it in preseason 2006 it came up with SJax becoming more valuable than LT beginning in 2008 (one player ascending, the other declining). I thought "No way, this can't be right. It can't be that soon, just 2 years?!" because LT was THE running back to own at that time. But that's exactly what happened. On a PPG basis SJax passed him in 2008, beat him again in 2009, and it looks like in 2010 and beyond there will be no comparison. The 2006 preseason NPV calc nailed it. While this is just one case, the calc really makes you take a sobering look at a current stud over the rest of a career instead of being mesmerized by what's going on today in his peak years. I think if I can ever get my act together and do my work combining the QYR and NPV ideas, I will have a much better idea of a player's overall future value and when to hold vs when to trade. I have to admit I ignored the earlier calc and never dealt LT (two leagues), and instead of getting an SJax or equivalent for him before 2008 I'm now relegated to watching his value turn to dust.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Bump for update from CP, includin how he uses it to calculate the net present value of a player as mentioned in another thread. Thanks in advance, CP! You're the man.

This net present value idea is something I definitely want to get back to. For those who don't know what gheemony is talking about, a few years ago I was working on taking a typical player's fantasy point career curve and discounting each year back to today to get a single NPV for a player. It values today much more than 3 or 4 years from now, but also recognizes that players don't go forever, and attempts to put a number on overall remaining value. I was messing with various discount rates and settled on a high rate due to the relatively high uncertainty associated with future prediction. I didn't trust my results enough to really follow through though, but 4 seasons later it looks like maybe I should have.I remember when I first did it in preseason 2006 it came up with SJax becoming more valuable than LT beginning in 2008 (one player ascending, the other declining). I thought "No way, this can't be right. It can't be that soon, just 2 years?!" because LT was THE running back to own at that time. But that's exactly what happened. On a PPG basis SJax passed him in 2008, beat him again in 2009, and it looks like in 2010 and beyond there will be no comparison. The 2006 preseason NPV calc nailed it. While this is just one case, the calc really makes you take a sobering look at a current stud over the rest of a career instead of being mesmerized by what's going on today in his peak years. I think if I can ever get my act together and do my work combining the QYR and NPV ideas, I will have a much better idea of a player's overall future value and when to hold vs when to trade. I have to admit I ignored the earlier calc and never dealt LT (two leagues), and instead of getting an SJax or equivalent for him before 2008 I'm now relegated to watching his value turn to dust.

I'll probably be lynched for even suggesting this but seriously, if you ever developed something like this you could sell a yearly subscription to it. Just sayin'.

 

[FUBAR]

Player--Team--Draft--Rnd/Pk--Age--QYR

Leinart, Matt ARI Q-06 R1/10 26.7 7.5

you lost me here, Leinart has 7.5 quality years remaining? He probably doesn't have 1.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Bump for update from CP, includin how he uses it to calculate the net present value of a player as mentioned in another thread. Thanks in advance, CP! You're the man.

This net present value idea is something I definitely want to get back to. For those who don't know what gheemony is talking about, a few years ago I was working on taking a typical player's fantasy point career curve and discounting each year back to today to get a single NPV for a player. It values today much more than 3 or 4 years from now, but also recognizes that players don't go forever, and attempts to put a number on overall remaining value. I was messing with various discount rates and settled on a high rate due to the relatively high uncertainty associated with future prediction. I didn't trust my results enough to really follow through though, but 4 seasons later it looks like maybe I should have.I remember when I first did it in preseason 2006 it came up with SJax becoming more valuable than LT beginning in 2008 (one player ascending, the other declining). I thought "No way, this can't be right. It can't be that soon, just 2 years?!" because LT was THE running back to own at that time. But that's exactly what happened. On a PPG basis SJax passed him in 2008, beat him again in 2009, and it looks like in 2010 and beyond there will be no comparison. The 2006 preseason NPV calc nailed it. While this is just one case, the calc really makes you take a sobering look at a current stud over the rest of a career instead of being mesmerized by what's going on today in his peak years. I think if I can ever get my act together and do my work combining the QYR and NPV ideas, I will have a much better idea of a player's overall future value and when to hold vs when to trade. I have to admit I ignored the earlier calc and never dealt LT (two leagues), and instead of getting an SJax or equivalent for him before 2008 I'm now relegated to watching his value turn to dust.

What discount rate were you using? I've estimated discount rates in the past using a variety of methods, and typically come up with 20-30% annual discount rates....just curious how that measures up with what you assumed.

 

[Couch Potato]

Player--Team--Draft--Rnd/Pk--Age--QYR

Leinart, Matt ARI Q-06 R1/10 26.7 7.5

you lost me here, Leinart has 7.5 quality years remaining? He probably doesn't have 1.

You could say a lot of players have no quality years remaining depending on how you define quality, but I'm making no attempt to assess a player's value here, only his longevity. Also, as I said in the original post, QYR is only a general guideline and not an individual evaluation of any specific player. I'm simply applying a formula based on averages to all players in a class. Its purpose is to give a rule of thumb number to each class of player (i.e., QB, RB, etc.) based on average peak and end points for that class. My original study of player ages used only players that met a certain standard of fantasy-worthiness (because that's all I really cared about at the time), and end point ages are going to be somewhat higher for such players than for lesser players who flame out earlier. Admittedly, if I apply the formula to all players that someone might have rostered (as I have done in the above post), it ends up overstating QYR for the lesser players. By how much I don't know. That's a flaw, and it's why I have wanted to revisit QYR for lesser players to come up with different end points and multipliers for these category B and C guys since they are generally out of the league earlier than category A guys would be. For now though, the one formula for everyone is what I've got.

I'm not trying to make this QYR thing out to be more than it is. It's a rule of thumb estimate, and it doesn't take the place of individual player evaluation. It says a QB of Brett Favre's age should have been off coaching Pop Warner somewhere 3+ seasons ago, not throwing 33 TD passes in the NFL, and that a QB of JaMarcus Russell's age should have 9 years left. It doesn't tell you a thing about the ability of either guy. Just like any medical study or marketing study or whatever study of a body of people, it isn't meant to tell you what will become of one particular individual.

 

[Couch Potato]

What discount rate were you using? I've estimated discount rates in the past using a variety of methods, and typically come up with 20-30% annual discount rates....just curious how that measures up with what you assumed.

As you know, the rate used to discount future cash flows (or in this case, future fantasy point flows ) attempts to take into account risk. The rate consists of (1) the time value or risk free rate (a fantasy point today is worth more than a projected fantasy point 3 years from now) and (2) a risk premium (to take into account the risk that a projected future fantasy point may not materialize at all).That's where I got bogged down in my study a few years ago. I felt like I was just guessing at discount rates. In the real world we can look at a lot of similar financial data to assess rates of return. In our little fantasy football world there's not a lot to go on in determining how much confidence we should have that Player X will achieve his projected numbers next year, let alone 3 years from now.I plugged in 15%, 20%, 25%, 30% to see how they looked. I ended up using 20% but felt that rate would only be good for upper echelon players. My work on the project stopped and I never got back to it, but if/when I do, I think I'd have higher rates for lesser (category B and C) players because of the greater risk associated with their futures. Maybe 25-30% for B's and 35-50% for C's (and at 50% you're basically saying 3 years from now you have almost no confidence, which is pretty much the case with such guys). But again, I'm just guessing at this point. I'm hoping one day I'll get real ambitious and go back to 1990 or so and do a better historical study of all drafted and significant UDFA skill position players and their careers, year by year, and then I'd have a better body of work from which to help with a lot of questions such as end point, career production curve, etc. for lesser players as well. I think doing something like this might also help me with rookie draft pick valuations. If I do any of this stuff this offseason I'll be sure to share with you guys, either here or in a FBG article. I know myself though, and despite good intentions my follow through has always been a problem due to real life demands on my time.

 

[FUBAR]

Player--Team--Draft--Rnd/Pk--Age--QYR

Leinart, Matt ARI Q-06 R1/10 26.7 7.5

you lost me here, Leinart has 7.5 quality years remaining? He probably doesn't have 1.

You could say a lot of players have no quality years remaining depending on how you define quality, but I'm making no attempt to assess a player's value here, only his longevity. Also, as I said in the original post, QYR is only a general guideline and not an individual evaluation of any specific player. I'm simply applying a formula based on averages to all players in a class. Its purpose is to give a rule of thumb number to each class of player (i.e., QB, RB, etc.) based on average peak and end points for that class. My original study of player ages used only players that met a certain standard of fantasy-worthiness (because that's all I really cared about at the time), and end point ages are going to be somewhat higher for such players than for lesser players who flame out earlier. Admittedly, if I apply the formula to all players that someone might have rostered (as I have done in the above post), it ends up overstating QYR for the lesser players. By how much I don't know. That's a flaw, and it's why I have wanted to revisit QYR for lesser players to come up with different end points and multipliers for these category B and C guys since they are generally out of the league earlier than category A guys would be. For now though, the one formula for everyone is what I've got.

The multiplier makes sense. I don't know if it makes more sense to use a projection of points each year or simply tier the player and give points per tier - Chris Johnson at 25 years old, tier 1; give 100 points for tier 1 and 6 quality years remaining, for 600 points. A player like Marion Barber has 4 QYR and projects as a tier 4 RB; if we deduct a standard 15 points per tier, that's 55 points X 4 QYR = 220 points. Now, Michael Turner looks to have 3 QYR and projects as a tier 2 RB. 85 X 3 = 255. We get what we probably already know, Turner is worth more than Barber, but it isn't by much. The biggest difference in various people's rankings will be where they project a player to remain for his QYR and how much they deduct per tier drop. Interesting though, right now we don't have many RBs with only a few years left in the top tier. Perhaps the right way to do this is look at players we'd likely consider equal at different ends of their career? For example, SJax is the oldest guy I have in tier 1 with 4 years left (400 pts). He's probably worth about the same as Chris Wells (arguably) If Wells is a tier 3 with 8 years left and we want to make this equal 400, it would have to be 50 points for tier 3 - 25 points off per tier? I think this gets us in the ballpark.

 

[Couch Potato]

Player--Team--Draft--Rnd/Pk--Age--QYR

Leinart, Matt ARI Q-06 R1/10 26.7 7.5

you lost me here, Leinart has 7.5 quality years remaining? He probably doesn't have 1.

You could say a lot of players have no quality years remaining depending on how you define quality, but I'm making no attempt to assess a player's value here, only his longevity. Also, as I said in the original post, QYR is only a general guideline and not an individual evaluation of any specific player. I'm simply applying a formula based on averages to all players in a class. Its purpose is to give a rule of thumb number to each class of player (i.e., QB, RB, etc.) based on average peak and end points for that class. My original study of player ages used only players that met a certain standard of fantasy-worthiness (because that's all I really cared about at the time), and end point ages are going to be somewhat higher for such players than for lesser players who flame out earlier. Admittedly, if I apply the formula to all players that someone might have rostered (as I have done in the above post), it ends up overstating QYR for the lesser players. By how much I don't know. That's a flaw, and it's why I have wanted to revisit QYR for lesser players to come up with different end points and multipliers for these category B and C guys since they are generally out of the league earlier than category A guys would be. For now though, the one formula for everyone is what I've got.

The multiplier makes sense. I don't know if it makes more sense to use a projection of points each year or simply tier the player and give points per tier - Chris Johnson at 25 years old, tier 1; give 100 points for tier 1 and 6 quality years remaining, for 600 points. A player like Marion Barber has 4 QYR and projects as a tier 4 RB; if we deduct a standard 15 points per tier, that's 55 points X 4 QYR = 220 points. Now, Michael Turner looks to have 3 QYR and projects as a tier 2 RB. 85 X 3 = 255. We get what we probably already know, Turner is worth more than Barber, but it isn't by much. The biggest difference in various people's rankings will be where they project a player to remain for his QYR and how much they deduct per tier drop. Interesting though, right now we don't have many RBs with only a few years left in the top tier. Perhaps the right way to do this is look at players we'd likely consider equal at different ends of their career? For example, SJax is the oldest guy I have in tier 1 with 4 years left (400 pts). He's probably worth about the same as Chris Wells (arguably) If Wells is a tier 3 with 8 years left and we want to make this equal 400, it would have to be 50 points for tier 3 - 25 points off per tier? I think this gets us in the ballpark.

Your idea is interesting. I will want to look at it more closely when there's more time. Some parts of the valuation and NPV thing that I want to do are still pretty fuzzy in my mind. I have some idea what I want to do, but I'm a guy who has to plow through something and get really immersed into it before I begin to understand it very well. I'm not real intuitive. I wish I were a whole lot smarter than I am. Man, if I had Drinen's IQ.... Oh well. Gotta run, get my day going. Seeya!

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

What discount rate were you using? I've estimated discount rates in the past using a variety of methods, and typically come up with 20-30% annual discount rates....just curious how that measures up with what you assumed.

As you know, the rate used to discount future cash flows (or in this case, future fantasy point flows ) attempts to take into account risk. The rate consists of (1) the time value or risk free rate (a fantasy point today is worth more than a projected fantasy point 3 years from now) and (2) a risk premium (to take into account the risk that a projected future fantasy point may not materialize at all).That's where I got bogged down in my study a few years ago. I felt like I was just guessing at discount rates. In the real world we can look at a lot of similar financial data to assess rates of return. In our little fantasy football world there's not a lot to go on in determining how much confidence we should have that Player X will achieve his projected numbers next year, let alone 3 years from now.I plugged in 15%, 20%, 25%, 30% to see how they looked. I ended up using 20% but felt that rate would only be good for upper echelon players. My work on the project stopped and I never got back to it, but if/when I do, I think I'd have higher rates for lesser (category B and C) players because of the greater risk associated with their futures. Maybe 25-30% for B's and 35-50% for C's (and at 50% you're basically saying 3 years from now you have almost no confidence, which is pretty much the case with such guys). But again, I'm just guessing at this point. I'm hoping one day I'll get real ambitious and go back to 1990 or so and do a better historical study of all drafted and significant UDFA skill position players and their careers, year by year, and then I'd have a better body of work from which to help with a lot of questions such as end point, career production curve, etc. for lesser players as well. I think doing something like this might also help me with rookie draft pick valuations. If I do any of this stuff this offseason I'll be sure to share with you guys, either here or in a FBG article. I know myself though, and despite good intentions my follow through has always been a problem due to real life demands on my time.

Would be very curious if you do anything this offseason. I estimated 20-30% discount rates using trades in my keeper league (which also incorporates "cash" that teams use to bid on non-keeper free agents each offseason). There was a decent enough sample size of trades where teams gave up current draft picks in exchange for future draft picks + cash, to be able to estimate the "discount rate" implied by the deals. In most cases, the embedded discount rate was ~20-30% (in a few cases as high as 40%, or as low as 10%). FWIW.