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You are probably right.I don't think Nicks is on the list, nor Julio. AJ is right on the cusp.
No way. He isn't even the best back in his own division.
So whedn Richardson gets drafted by the Cleveland Browns and sucks and Mathews is tearing it up, what then? Mathews showed alot this year and who is the best back in the division Jamaal CHarles? Sure but his got a bumm ACL right now. IF healthy I'd take Jamaal over 1.01 too
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id add julio to this but i agree overall. Stafford/Cam are worth more then the 1.01 imo...
Just curious why Gronk at #3 but no Graham?
Can't disagree with this. I had Brees and Stafford on my team at the midpoint of this year. I felt the need to move one and decided it should be Stafford. I shipped him off for what wound up being the 1.06 and Eli in return. I don't think his perceived value and actual value are close yet. People are still really afraid that he's gonna take another hit and lose another year.
Where's your list? What is the proper valuation for the 1.01?I also think it's likely you're currently UNDERvaluing the 1.01. Look at who the last 5 1.01s were: Ingram, Mathews, Moreno, McFadden, Peterson. That's one guy the jury's still out on (Ingram), one guy who was an unqualified bust (Bush), two guys who performed right in line with that valuation (McFadden and Mathews, both of whom have been mentioned as being close in value to the 1.01 this year), and one guy who outperformed this consensus by a huge margin (Peterson, who would have been the #1 overall in startups as a rookie if we knew then what we know now). That's a pretty phenomenal success rate. The 1.01 rookie pick has demonstrated repeatedly that its proper value is typically in the late-1st to late-2nd range.
I'm curious if people would still feel the same way about Stafford if he hadn't had a chance to pad his season-ending totals with a 59 attempt, 520 yard, 5 TD performance in week 17 against a Packers squad that was resting its key contributors. Going into week 17, Stafford was 5th, and closer to #7 Matt Ryan than he was to #4 Tom Brady. The same Matt Ryan who hasn't seen his name brought up once in this entire thread. I view Stafford more in a tier with Tony Romo than a tier with Aaron Rodgers.
Every year.
See I'm not even really concerned about another injury. I feel like much of his injury prone label was overblown. He was healthy his entire college career and then he went to an awful Detroit team where he was repeatedly getting spiked on his shoulder. Combined with the fact that he's a tough kid who hangs in the pocket, it's not surprising he got injured. I just don't think qbs other than newton and Rodgers command this type of value. There are a lot of good fantasy qbs nowadays which devalues the position and workhorse rbs are more rare than ever.'Chimp Magnet said:
Standard FBG scoring....it's right in the title there.I like the inclusion of Harvin. Not sure I'd value him more than Nicks or not. Really close.
I appreciate your mentioning the last 5 picks and when I look at the 5 previous, I see even more pitfalls (as things have shaken out over time). You have a class of Brown/Benson/Caddy (think Caddy was the top pick for FF...which all were "fine", none difference makers)'Synesthesia said:
Not one of those guys is on every list here... in fact only Mathews and McFadden have been listed at all and on the cusp at that. That worries me. Lets examine taking the consensus #1 RB vs the #1 WR each of these years:Ingram vs AJ GreenMathews vs Dez BryantMoreno vs CrabtreeMcFadden vs Deshawn JacksonPeterson vs MegatronHmm...I could see the Luck argument- having a Manning/Brady/Brees caliber QB for a decade makes you an instant contender every year. But for a running back with their current shelf life in a pass happy league? Pass.
That's your own fault. There were many people AT THE TIME who would have overwhelmingly advocated that you take Dez/Mathews and Green in the last two drafts. Moreno wasn't thought of as a slam-dunk #1 pick either, by most.'The Comedian said:I have had the #1 pick the last three years through a horrible team and various trades. I was able to get Moreno, Mathews and Ingram. Honestly, i will trade that pick in a second if i ever get it again. Way too much uncertainty.
Part of this is an unfair comparison. If you want to make it really fair, get a list of guys going in the 15-25 range in startups during some of those seasons. You'll see a lot of names like Cadillac, Maroney, Barlow, Domanick Davis, Jamal Lewis, over-the-hill Shaun Alexander, Julius Jones, and Kevin Jones. It's not like we're comparing a "super-risky" rookie vs. an "ultra-safe" veteran- people have a tendency to overrate the riskiness of rookies and underrate the riskiness of vets. When it comes down to it, the only "safe" picks are the guys who are still on the upslope of their career and who have demonstrated multiple stud-caliber seasons... and there aren't 15 of those guys in the NFL. By my count, right now you've got Calvin, Rodgers, McCoy, Rice, maybe Nicks (depending on your definition of stud), maybe Fitz (depending on your definition of upslope), and... nobody. That's it. Everyone else is already reaching their peak (and therefore at risk of major age-related meltdown in the next few seasons), or else still moderately unproven (and therefore at risk of becoming the next Michael Clayton, Matt Ryan, or Kevin Jones- guys where it seemed that the sky was the limit after their first season).Late 1st to mid 2nd picks bust at a near 50% clip, even in dynasty startups. Compared to that, the list of those last 10 rookie 1.01s starts to look a lot more palatable.When I opened this thread and read some of those lists, my first thought was that people were overrating Richardson, but on reflection I really think that the 10-20 range really is the right place to value the 1.01 pick right now.
Stafford is easily the youngest QB of the guys you listed other than Newton and he fought through a thumb injury on his throwing hand this year that greatly hindered his success for 4 games, 9 of his 16 INTs came in that 4 game stretch. He is a great player. If you can't see that by now then I guess you never will. He only needs to prove more durable. When's he's been healthy, he's been great. Add to it that he's still only 23 years old, yes 23, I would in no way give him up for the 1st pick and roll the dice on a rookie.To date in Stafford's career he has averaged 270 passing yds passing and just over 2 TDs per game. He's done this while being injured every year thus far and still being one of the youngest starting QBs in the NFL today. That average alone paces him for 4,300 yds and 32 TDs per season. Like him or not, those are elite numbers.
Take Calvin out o the mix and Stafford is no better than Jay Cutler.
That's fine, because with a weapon like Calvin Johnson and a pass-happy offense, Jay Cutler would most likely be a top-5 dynasty QB. He's incredibly talented.
Even if we assume this is true, why would we take away Johnson when he is still there and likely will be for a long time?
Curious to hear any system where you'd even consider the #1 over Rodgers.
Those are great stats, but they don't necessarily tell you how well the player played. Think of it in baseball terms. If Player A hits 25 home runs in a season and Player B hits 20 home runs, then is Player A clearly the better home run hitter? No, because we're missing important information. If Player A hit 25 home runs in 500 at-bats and Player B hit 20 home runs in 200 at-bats, the picture looks a lot different. The total stats don't tell the whole story. Stafford was not an elite QB on a per-throw basis. He just benefited from an ENORMOUS number of pass attempts. He threw the ball 663 times this past season. To put that into perspective, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and even Drew Brees have NEVER thrown the ball that many times in a single season. I find it highly likely that Stafford's attempts will drop in future seasons. When that happens, will he still be an elite FF QB?
Well, you've been wrong about Stafford for 4 years now so I guess I wouldn't expect that to change now. If Stafford is simply a product of the system, explain why his record as a starter has been so much better than Det's record w/o him the past 3 years. Also, explain why his QB rating has improved 3 years in a row since entering the NFL, just like it did when he was at Georgia. I love how so many act as though a 23 year old QB who hasn't even played a full 2 seasons in the NFL yet has already reached his peak simply because Megatron is there. Here's the thing, Megatron's success and career year are just as tied to Stafford as Stafford's was to Megatron. The comparison to Big Ben is silly. It's no coincidence that Big Ben has not replicated the YPA numbers of his 2 seasons in any other season. It's because he threw the ball more and when you do, it's more difficult to do. In Big Ben's 1st 2 seasons he only passed the ball a ridiculously low amount of times per game of 21. In those seasons he averaged 8.9 YPA. Since then, he has averaged over 31 attempts per game and his YPA has dropped to a rate of 7.8. Coincidence, I think not. By the way, Stafford's was 7.6 last yer with 41 attempts per game. Not that big a deal when you actually put the numbers into perspective. During the 4 game stretch when he was nursing an injured thumb his YPA was 7.1. When healthy, it was 7.8.
