I am in a Dynasty League that just started this year. I picked Johnson up on waivers. I can sign him to a long term deal (5 yrs) at the end of the season using credits we are assigned. I have someone who wants to trade me Vincent Jackson (Already signed for 4 years). Do you consider Jackson or Johnson to be the better value in the trade long term?
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Dynasty Question (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter iuatc
- Start date
This is a question that probably belongs in the ACF, but it is a good question.
As of now i have VJax a couple points higher than Johnson in my rankings, but alot of their future value is going to depend on what happens over the next few months. I think VJax value will take a hit if he goes anywhere other than SD. With that looking likely, i think Jackson will fall down my rankings before next season.
With Fitzpatrick looking like the Bills QB of the future, Steve Johnsons value has nowhere to go but up at this point. Not to mention he is far more valuable for the rest of this season.
Right now its a toss up for me, i probably wouldnt trade Johnson for Jackson, but then again, i probably wouldnt trade Jackson for Johnson.
As of now i have VJax a couple points higher than Johnson in my rankings, but alot of their future value is going to depend on what happens over the next few months. I think VJax value will take a hit if he goes anywhere other than SD. With that looking likely, i think Jackson will fall down my rankings before next season.
With Fitzpatrick looking like the Bills QB of the future, Steve Johnsons value has nowhere to go but up at this point. Not to mention he is far more valuable for the rest of this season.
Right now its a toss up for me, i probably wouldnt trade Johnson for Jackson, but then again, i probably wouldnt trade Jackson for Johnson.
Black
Footballguy
If it's PPR league, I'd look long and hard at Stevie.
Yes VJax has 'done it' before, but look how GOOD Rivers made really mediocre guys look. I think VJax is big, and fast, but that's about it. His first couple of years he did not show good hands. I believe his value came from Rivers. Plus, you now have one of the only guys to actually sit out most of a season (and look where that got him).
I'd sit on Stevie. He's a bit crazy, but young and has the look of a good WR in a potentially young, building Offense in BUF.
Yes VJax has 'done it' before, but look how GOOD Rivers made really mediocre guys look. I think VJax is big, and fast, but that's about it. His first couple of years he did not show good hands. I believe his value came from Rivers. Plus, you now have one of the only guys to actually sit out most of a season (and look where that got him).
I'd sit on Stevie. He's a bit crazy, but young and has the look of a good WR in a potentially young, building Offense in BUF.
pidgeonmanza
Footballguy
how strongly do you feel that fitzpatrick will be their qb of the future?Go deep said:
FFdork
Footballguy
I have watched zero Bills games so I'm not really qualified to speak to Johnson's skill set, but you do need to factor in that God hates him.
More seriously, I try to accumulate talent over situation when I'm looking long-term--so muches changes in the NFL over a period of 2-3 years. The situation guys (e.g. Tolbert for a good portion of this year) are people I try to fill out my roster with (and buy low/trade high) each year.
Just because few people knew Johnson at the beginning of the year doesn't mean he's not destined for NFL greatness, but I would assume most people prefer Vincent at this point. In any case, I'd go with whoever you feel is more talented.
More seriously, I try to accumulate talent over situation when I'm looking long-term--so muches changes in the NFL over a period of 2-3 years. The situation guys (e.g. Tolbert for a good portion of this year) are people I try to fill out my roster with (and buy low/trade high) each year.
Just because few people knew Johnson at the beginning of the year doesn't mean he's not destined for NFL greatness, but I would assume most people prefer Vincent at this point. In any case, I'd go with whoever you feel is more talented.
doowain
Footballguy
Why would Jackson's value take a hit anywhere other than SD? Any team that signs him will be paying a hefty contract and he will be their #1 option in the passing game. As it stands, even though SD is a passing team, VJax has never seen more than 107 targets in a season. He's basically the #2 in SD, so why wouldn't his value jump going to a team where he is the focus? Sure, there is a great chance that his new QB will not throw a deep ball on the level of Rivers, but with an increase in targets, I'd have to expect his PPR value to rise. Steve Johnson is not even in the same conversation as Vincent Jackson in terms of talent IMO. Regardless of the cloudiness surrounding VJax's future, I can't imagine him going to a worse offensive situation than Buffalo either.Go deep said:
Im not so sure about this what makes you think this? Im not suggesting Johnson is more talented, but i think it is alot closer than you think. You even admit that Johnson is in one of the worst situations, yet he is on pace to better Jacksons best season. Ive watcehd Jackson play alot, and no doubt he is talented, but considering what the other less talented Chargers WR have done this season, i dont think it is a stretch to assume Jacksons value is tied to Rivers more than most people think.
Also, what makes you think Jackson is going to see more targets in his new situation? Even if he does, he is highly unlikely to maintain the YPC he was putting up in SD.
Obviously alot is going to depend on where VJax ends up, but odds are it wont be in a situation as good as SD.
On the other hand, Steve Johnsons situation shoudlnt change much in the near future, and if anything, can only get better.
At this point, i feel pretty good about it, especially if the Bills dont end up with the 1st pick in April. He just turned 28, so he has plenty of football left in him. With the amount of holes the Bills have, i doubt they will reach for a QB. Obviously it is going to depend on Fitzpatrick, but if he continues to play the way he has been, he will be starting for the Bills for the foreseeable future.
doowain
Footballguy
Did you even read what I typed? If VJax ends up somewhere else, how can you not expect his targets to go up? His best season has 107 targets. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I have to assume that's near the bottom for #1 WRs. Any team that signs him will have to pay him a very large contract. You don't think he'll then become the focus of the offense (like Gates is now)? That's why I expect his number of targets to go up. I already implied that his YPC would go down, but that his PPR value should rise considering a larger number of targets. He has some of the best deep ball tracking skills in the league, so I wouldn't expect his new team to ignore that.
Track record and pedigree are indicators. Jackson was a 2nd round pick. Johnson a 7th.
The Bills have attempted 382 passes vs. 271 rushes (58%/42% in favor of the pass). Last year it was a 441/424 split (51%/49% in favor of the pass). Clearly they've been playing from behind a lot this year and those will inflate a WRs numbers for sure. Is Johnson talented? Sure. Do I think he can keep this up? No. And his dynasty value is not Top 20 for me. Watching him play, there is nothing about him that is special to me. I think he's benefiting from a QB that is force feeding him balls and lax coverage that is consistently allowing completions due to Buffalo playing in catchup mode.
Have you watched the games, because this sounds like an assumption to me. In the 6 games since their week 6 bye, the Bills have either won, or lost by 3 or less points. Johnson is a big reason for that, racking up 42 rec, 582 yards, 5 TD's. How much of Johnson have you really seen ths year? I have watched every Bills snap this season, and Johnson is the real deal. As far as Vjax becoming the focus of another teams offense, that may end up being the case, but i dont know that it will work out that way. I have to wonder if there was a reason he never ended up with more than 107 targets. Again, im not suggesting he is not talented, but after seeing what the other Chargers WR's are doing this season(Floyd and Crayton are both in the leagues top 5 in YPC)his success may be more tied to Rivers than his own talent.
Also, after getting to watch players play in the NFL, their draft postion means almost nothing to me. Although i do agree that the Pats should have stuck with 1st round pick Drew Beldsoe over 6th round pick Tom Brady years back, what a mistake that ended up being.
Catbird
Footballguy
Great question, OP!
I'd take Stevie in a heartbeat.
I understand the lack of a proven record and that's the downside - sample size and the impact of Evans being most defenses' primary WR concern until the last several games. But I like that SJ has only a decent QB and offense but has his current high production, and that he has blown by a WR with similar (though lesser) talents to VJ. Johnson works in closer and goes over the middle pretty freely, and those are huge plusses for a high scoring WR long term. VJ is very talented, but has more of a one trick portfolio - not that I wouldn't grab him in a second for just about any team.
I think the Rivers factor and future team uncertainty are huge. Note Marshall going to a decent young offense where most of us expected him to remain dominant or even improve his numbers. Or look more closely at Boldin ... R.Moss ... Housh ... I think it is unlikely Jackson will be the same guy somewhere else - maybe if he goes to the Rams and Danario doesn't pan out? But I don't see near as much chance to be the scoring stud elsewhere as he has been in SD with its score by passing tendencies. Nor are there many teams with Rivers' talent looking for a #1 WR - so good chance he goes to a worse situation and numbers drop, maybe a lot.
Add in that Johnson's situation can hardly get worse (little downside), that he is already out-producing VJ's best years with Rivers and that I would take his craziness over Jackson's potential alcohol issues and year long suspension for a violation and I don't see much choice. Only reasons to consider VJ in this comparison, to me, are that he MIGHT go to a great situation and that Johnson might be looking better for a couple of months than he really is (and my eyeballs say otherwise).
I'd take Stevie in a heartbeat.
I understand the lack of a proven record and that's the downside - sample size and the impact of Evans being most defenses' primary WR concern until the last several games. But I like that SJ has only a decent QB and offense but has his current high production, and that he has blown by a WR with similar (though lesser) talents to VJ. Johnson works in closer and goes over the middle pretty freely, and those are huge plusses for a high scoring WR long term. VJ is very talented, but has more of a one trick portfolio - not that I wouldn't grab him in a second for just about any team.
I think the Rivers factor and future team uncertainty are huge. Note Marshall going to a decent young offense where most of us expected him to remain dominant or even improve his numbers. Or look more closely at Boldin ... R.Moss ... Housh ... I think it is unlikely Jackson will be the same guy somewhere else - maybe if he goes to the Rams and Danario doesn't pan out? But I don't see near as much chance to be the scoring stud elsewhere as he has been in SD with its score by passing tendencies. Nor are there many teams with Rivers' talent looking for a #1 WR - so good chance he goes to a worse situation and numbers drop, maybe a lot.
Add in that Johnson's situation can hardly get worse (little downside), that he is already out-producing VJ's best years with Rivers and that I would take his craziness over Jackson's potential alcohol issues and year long suspension for a violation and I don't see much choice. Only reasons to consider VJ in this comparison, to me, are that he MIGHT go to a great situation and that Johnson might be looking better for a couple of months than he really is (and my eyeballs say otherwise).
doowain
Footballguy
So you pick the best example ever for a draft position comparison. Sigh.Anyway, since you brought it up.....since Week 6, Johnson has 68 targets. Project that to a full season and that's 181 targets. That would be the most in the NFL in the last 3 years.Have you watched the games, because this sounds like an assumption to me. In the 6 games since their week 6 bye, the Bills have either won, or lost by 3 or less points. Johnson is a big reason for that, racking up 42 rec, 582 yards, 5 TD's. How much of Johnson have you really seen ths year? I have watched every Bills snap this season, and Johnson is the real deal. As far as Vjax becoming the focus of another teams offense, that may end up being the case, but i dont know that it will work out that way. I have to wonder if there was a reason he never ended up with more than 107 targets. Again, im not suggesting he is not talented, but after seeing what the other Chargers WR's are doing this season(Floyd and Crayton are both in the leagues top 5 in YPC)his success may be more tied to Rivers than his own talent.
Also, after getting to watch players play in the NFL, their draft postion means almost nothing to me. Although i do agree that the Pats should have stuck with 1st round pick Drew Beldsoe over 6th round pick Tom Brady years back, what a mistake that ended up being.
Playing from behind or not......the pass/run splits don't lie. They are throwing the ball A TON and Johnson is being force fed the ball.
ETA: Even though I'm sure with more targets the YPC would come down, consider this:
With VJax catch %, rec per TD, and YPC, if given 181 targets, last year he'd have projected to..
115 rec
1973 yards
15 TDs
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This is a pretty big deal, Johnson is putting up numbers, and that is helping the Bills stay competitive. It would be alot different if he was just racking up alot of 4th quarter stats.They are throwing alot because it is working, due in large part to Steve Johnson. You act as though getting alot of targets is a bad thing, but there is a reason certain players get alot of targets and some dont. Thats not to say Jackson might not get more targets with a new team, but i dont think there is any guarantee that will happen. Right now, Johnson seems to be the safer bet, as his situation is unlikely to change much in the near future.
Obviously i know that the Brady/Bledsoe comaprison is an extreme, but the point is draft postion doesnt mean anything after the guys have a few years under their belt in the NFL.
doowain
Footballguy
The fact remains that you are putting your eggs in the basket of a 7th round pick on one of the worst teams of the last decade on the basis of a 6 game stretch instead of the 2nd round pick who has performed as a WR1 for a full season, has improved his statistics every year in the league, and has a track record of success. I understand that one of the flaws of this hobby is the "what have you done for me lately" attitude. I think this is one of those cases. Had VJax played all year long, I don't even think this is a debate.
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Huge beat
At Floyds current rate this season, if given 181 targets his numbers would look like this: 93 rec1911 yards14 TD'sCrayton numers with 181 targets this year:121 rec2215 yards5 TD'sSeyi Ajirotutu numbers projected with 181 targets this year:139 rec2794 yards27 TD'sSeems being a Chargers Wr would be a good thing for anyone if they got 181 targets. Problem is, they dont, and a bigger problem for Jackson is he isnt going to be a Chargers WR next year, so its likely he does less with the targets he does get next season. Plus, why is it assumed he will get more targets with a new team?
Its funny depsite being a 7th round pick on one of the worst teams he is still putting up better numbers than Jackson ever has. Plus Jackson had the advantage of one of the best situations for a WR, a situation he is soon to be without. Not to mention Johnson has much more value this year and is almost 4 years younger.Also, im not putting my eggs anywhere, i am just giving my opinion on the situation. I do own both, but in only one league each. I hope they both succeed, and i have them ranked very close, but right now, based on what i have seen, i would give the edge to Johnson.
I know one thing, anyone who says Johnson is not even close to the talent of Jackson hasnt watched Jackson play, and is probably to caught up in draft position.
doowain
Footballguy
Again, you are taking small sample sizes and extrapolating. I took an entire season.Ok, let me break it down a little more. Would you say the 2nd option in an offense would get more or less targets than the 1st option in an offense? Ignore offensive philosophies as that's an unknown at this point. What would you expect to happen 99 times out of 100?
6 game stretch? Johnson has been putting up numbers all season. Which is only one less season than Jackson. Its not like we are talking about one guy with a long track record of success and another with two good games.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I agree with you on this point. But that is the sticking point right now with VJax. He chose not to play this season. He's gotten himself in trouble with the law in the past. There's definitely some off the field things to be concerned about. You may be correct in that he will be featured in his new offense next season. He could land in a fantastic spot like the Rams and be a legitimate #1 for your team. He could also go to a team like Carolina, and be unstartable like Steve Smith is now. Steve Johnson is rapidly rising up the dynasty rankings right now. It wouldn't shock me if a year from now Steve Johnson would carry more value than VJax. I just don't believe this is a no brainer.
doowain
Footballguy
History is littered with players (with less pedigree) who have put up half season's worth of top notch statistics only to fade away into oblivion. I'm just saying automatically plugging him into your Top 15 rankings, and even ahead of more proven WRs like VJax, is a recipe for disaster.So, how is being the WR1 for a team and only seeing 107 targets one of the best advantages in the NFL for a WR? That's less than 7 targets per game. On the open market, Jackson is going to approach what Marshall got last year. You think that a team is going to pay that and target him less than 7 times a game? He's a player you can build your offense around. San Diego has had the luxury of not needing to do that with Gates on board and LT for so many years.
doowain
Footballguy
I would expect the first option to get more targets. But your doing alot of assuming with Jackson. Who is to say he is the #1 option, and even if he is, who is to say that he will do anything close to what he did on SD with those targets. Fitzgerald is clearly more talented than Johnson, and is averaging 2 more targets per game, yet Johnson is putting up much better numbers. Also, i used a small sample size for each WR, but it hasnt mattered which WR was the #1 each week, the Chargers are getting the same production out of the #1 WR no matter who has played it, including Jackson. I would be willing to bet if Floyd had been the Chargers #2 pass option during the 2008 and 2009 season, his numbers would have been very similar to VJax. I dont think i can say the same thing about Steve Johnson and the Bills this season.doowain said:
doowain
Footballguy
Well, God doesn't hate the guy that I'm backing.....so I like my chances.
higgins
Footballguy
I meant you and Go deep!
doowain
Footballguy
I meant you and Go deep!
You can disagree and debate without it being a "fight". I thought that's what we were doing?
higgins
Footballguy
I was being facetious -- carry on.I meant you and Go deep!
You can disagree and debate without it being a "fight". I thought that's what we were doing?
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
The key wording of your question is "long term". I would rather have S. Johnson. He's only 24 years old and Jackson turns 28 in less than a month. Still young, but those four years are no small consideration in Dyansty. Jackson's off-field issues also give me pause.
It's close.
It's close.
