Dynasty rankings for the offseason? (2 Viewers)

[onionsack]

Linebacker

1.       Luke Kuechly CAR

2.       Bobby Wagner SEA

3.       Kwon Alexander TBB

4.       C.J. Mosley BAL

5.       Lavonte David TBB

6.       Ryan Shazier PIT

7.       Alec Ogletree RAM

8.       Deion Jones ATL

9.       Telvin Smith JAX

10.   Jamie Collins NEP

11.   Vontaze Burfict CIN

12.   Christian Kirksey CLE

13.   Navorro Bowman SFO

14.   Benardrick McKinney HOU

15.   Zach Brown BUF

16.   Jatavis Brown LAC

17.   Jaylon Smith DAL

18.   Sean Lee DAL

19.   Eric Kendricks MIN

20.   Kiko Alonso MIA

21.   Deone Bucannon ARI

22.   Jordan Hicks PHI

23.   Jerrell Freeman CHI

24.   Von Miller DEN

25.   Vic Beasley ATL

26.   Myles Jack JAX

27.   Chandler Jones ARI

28.   Mark Barron RAM

29.   KJ Wright SEA

30.   Justin Houston KCC

31.   Melvin Ingram LAC

32.   Reggie Ragland BUF

33.   Nigel Bradham PHI

34.   Whitney Mercilus HOU

35.   Markus Golden ARI

36.   Tahir Whitehead DET

37.   Dont’a Hightower NEP

38.   Preston Brown BUF

39.   Denzel Perryman LAC

40.   Leonard Floyd CHI

41.   Ryan Kerrigan WAS

42.   Thomas Davis CAR

43.   Darron Lee NYJ

44.   Robert Quinn RAM

45.   Lawrence Timmons PIT

46.   Craig Robertson NOS

47.   Bud Dupree PIT

48.   Perry Riley OAK

49.   Lorenzo Alexander BUF

50.   Will Compton WAS

51.   Ramik Wilson KCC

52.   Mason Foster WAS

53.   Brandon Marshall DEN

54.   Shaq Thompson CAR

55.   Brian Orakpo TEN

56.   Clay Matthews GBP

57.   Preston Smith WAS

58.   Mychal Kendricks PHI

59.   Derrick Johnson KCC

60.   Deandre Levy DET

61.   Jake Ryan GBP

62.   Nick Perry GBP

63.   Jonathan Casillas NYG

64.   Dee Ford KCC

65.   Avery Williamson TEN

66.   Gerald Hodges SFO

67.   Anthony Barr MIN

68.   Derrick Morgan TEN

69.   De’Vondre Campbell ATL

70.   Jelani Jenkins MIA

71.   Bruce Irvin OAK

72.   Erik Walden IND

73.   Trent Murphy WAS

74.   Paul Posluszny JAX

75.   Shane Ray DEN

76.   B.J. Goodson NYG

77.   Ray-Ray Armstrong SFF

78.   Todd Davis DEN

79.   Brian Cushing HOU

80.   Edwin Jackson IND

81.   Demario Davis CLE

82.   Sio Moore ARI

83.   D’Qwell Jackson IND

84.   John Simon HOU

85.   Jordan Jenkins NYJ

86.   Dannell Ellerbe NOS

87.   Kyle Van Noy NEP

88.   Stephone Anthony NOS

89.   Kamalei Correa BAL

90.   Connor Barwin PHI

91.   Danny Trevathan CHI

92.   David Harris NYJ

93.   Pernell McPhee CHI

94.   Kevin Minter ARI

95.   Korey Toomer LAC

96.   Keenan Robinson NYG

97.   Corey Nelson DEN

98.   Vincent Rey CIN

99.   Cory James OAK

100.                        Sean Spence TEN

101.                        Manti Te’o LAC

102.                        Devon Kennard NYG

103.                        Antonio Morrison IND

104.                        Junior Galette WAS

105.                        Alex Okafor ARI

106.                        Josh Bynes DET

107.                        Kyle Emanuel LAC

108.                        Willie Young CHI

109.                        Anthony Hitchens DAL

110.                        Aaron Lynch SFO

111.                        Nick Kwiatkoski CHI

112.                        Malcolm Smith OAK

113.                        Nick Bellore SFO

114.                        Terrell Suggs BAL

115.                        Wesley Woodyard TEN

116.                        Blake Martinez GBP

117.                        Joshua Perry LAC

118.                        Lorenzo Mauldin NYJ

119.                        Kevin Dodd TEN

120.                        Vince Williams PIT

121.                        Daryl Smith TBB

122.                        Joe Schobert CLE

123.                        Antwione Williams DET

124.                        Shilique Calhoun OAK

125.                        Shea McClellin NEP

126.                        Demarcus Ware DEN

127.                        Karlos Dansby CLE

128.                        Shaquil Barrett DEN

129.                        Matt Judon BAL

130.                        James Harrison PIT

131.                        Koa Misi MIA

132.                        Elandon Roberts NEP

133.                        Tamba Hali KCC

134.                        Akeem Ayers IND

135.                        Datone Jones GBP

136.                        Lamarr Houston CHI

137.                        Stephen Tulloch PHI

138.                        Elvis Dumervil BAL

139.                        Dan Skuta JAX

140.                        Nick Vigil CIN

141.                        Kelvin Sheppard NYG

142.                        Damien Wilson DAL

143.                        Kentrell Brothers MIN

144.                        Za’Darius Smith BAL

145.                        Ben Heeney OAK

146.                        Najee Goode PHI

147.                        Barkevious Mingo NEP

148.                        Christian Jones CHI

149.                        Martrell Spaight WAS

150.                        Jarvis Jones PIT

151.                        Tamba Hali KCC

152.                        Albert McClellan BAL

153.                        J.T. Thomas NYG

154.                        Michael Wilhoite SFO

155.                        Kyler Fackrell GBP

156.                        Patrick Onwuasor BAL

157.                        Eli Harold SFO

158.                        Dadi Nicolas KCC

159.                        Bryce Hager RAM

160.                        Kevin Pierre-Louis SEA

161.                        Emmanuel Lamur MIN

162.                        Audie Cole MIN

163.                        Rey Maualuga CIN

164.                        Julius Peppers GBP

165.                        Mike Morgan SEA

166.                        Josh Mauga KCC

167.                        Justin Durant DAL

168.                        Aaron Wallace TEN

169.                        Joe Thomas GBP

170.                        Paul Dawson CIN

171.                        Paul Worrilow ATL

172.                        John Timu CHI

173.                        Kareem Martin ARI

174.                        Sam Barrington NOS

175.                        Donald Butler MIA

 

[onionsack]

Cornerback

1.       Marcus Peters KCC

2.       Vernon Hargreaves TBB

3.       Daryl Worley CAR

4.       Ryan Logan NEP

5.       Bashaud Breeland WAS

6.       A.J. Bouye HOU

7.       Malcolm Butler NEP

8.       Prince Amukamara JAX

9.       Delvin Breaux NOS

10.   Casey Hayward GBP

11.   Xavier Rhodes MIN

12.   Jalen Ramsey JAX

13.   Jalen Collins ATL

14.   Jason McCourty TEN

15.   Artie Burns PIT

16.   Jimmie Ward SFO

17.   Kareem Jackson HOU

18.   Ronald Darby BUF

19.   Kevin Johnson HOU

20.   Josh Norman WAS

21.   Marcus Cooper ARI

22.   E.J. Gaines RAM

23.   James Bradberry CAR

24.   Eli Apple NYG

25.   Brian Poole ATL

26.   Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie NYG

27.   Byron Maxwell MIA

28.   David Amerson OAK

29.   Damarious Randall GBP

30.   Lamarcus Joyner RAM

31.   Deshawn Shead SEA

32.   Joe Haden CLE

33.   Janoris Jenkins NYG

34.   Orlando Scandrick DAL

35.   Steven Nelson KCC

36.   Trumaine Johnson RAM

37.   Chris Harris DEN

38.   Darius Slay DET

39.   Robert Alford ATL

40.   Aqib Talib DEN

41.   Brent Grimes TBB

42.   Stephon Gilmore BUF

43.   Bradley Roby DEN

44.   Jason Verrett LAC

45.   Nolan Carroll PHI

46.   Xavien Howard MIA

47.   Dre Kirkpatrick CIN

48.   Terrance Mitchell KCC

49.   Tramon Williams CLE

50.   Brandon Flowers SDC

51.   Kevin Johnson HOU

52.   Shareece Wright BAL

53.   Richard Sherman SEA

54.   Jacoby Glenn CHI

55.   Brandon Carr DAL

56.   Jalen Mills PHI

57.   Senquez Golson PIT

58.   Jamar Taylor CLE

59.   Brice McCain TEN

60.   William Jackson III CIN

61.   Jeremy Lane SEA

62.   Kendall Fuller WAS

63.   Desmond Trufant ATL

64.   Nevin Lawson DET

65.   Juston Burris NYJ

66.   P.J. Williams NOS

67.   Tramaine Brock SFO

68.   Patrick Robinson IND

69.   Quandre Diggs DET

70.   Cre’von LeBlanc CHI

71.   Tony Lippett MIA

72.   Aaron Colvin JAX

73.   Trae Waynes MIN

74.   Quinten Rollins GBP

75.   Josh Shaw CIN

76.   Vontae Davis IND

77.   Phillip Gaines KCC

78.   Darrelle Revis NYJ

79.   Morris Claiborne DAL

80.   Ross Cockrell PIT

81.   Adam Jones CIN

82.   Antwon Blake TEN

83.   Buster Skrine NYJ

84.   Sam Shields GBP

85.   Jerraud Powers BAL

86.   Melvin Rashaan IND

87.   Eric Rowe NEP

88.   Josh Robinson TBB

89.   Kayvon Webster DEN

90.   D.J. Hayden OAK

91.   Darius Butler IND

92.   William Gay PIT

93.   Rashard Robinson SFO

94.   Captain Munnerlyn MIN

95.   Ladarius Gunter GBP

96.   Mackensie Alexander MIN

97.   Darqueze Dennard CIN

98.   Kayvon Webster DEN

99.   Sterling Moore NOS

100.                        Tavon Young BAL

101.                        Anthony Brown DAL

102.                        Nickell Robey BUF

103.                        Kyle Fuller CHI

104.                        Tracy Porter CHI

105.                        Jude Adjei-Barimah TBB

106.                        Bryce Callahan CHI

107.                        Quinton Dunbar WAS

108.                        Brandon Williams ARI

109.                        Leodis McKelvin PHI

110.                        Trevor Williams LAC

111.                        Damian Swann NOS

112.                        Johnathan Joseph HOU

113.                        Leonard Johnson CAR

114.                        Marcus Williams NYJ

115.                        Jimmy Smith BAL

116.                        Sean Smith OAK

117.                        Terence Newman MIN

118.                        Harlan Miller ARI CB

119.                        Bobby McCain MIA

120.                        Briean Boddy-Calhoun CLE

121.                        Patrick Peterson ARI

122.                        Cyrus Jones NEP

123.                        Ken Crawley NOS

124.                        Johnathan Jones NEP

125.                        Greg Toler WAS

126.                        Davon House JAX

127.                        Blake Countess RAM

 

[onionsack]

Safety

1.       Landon Collins NYG

2.       Keanu Neal ATL

3.       Reshad Jones MIA

4.       Harrison Smith MIN

5.       Karl Joseph OAK

6.       Eric Berry KCC

7.       Johnathan Cyprien JAX

8.       Morgan Burnett GBP

9.       Tony Jefferson ARI

10.   Barry Church DAL

11.   Tyrann Mathieu ARI

12.   Clayton Geathers IND

13.   Jahleel Addae LAC

14.   Su’a Cravens WAS

15.   Kenny Vaccaro NOS

16.   Ha Ha Clinton-Dix GBP

17.   Kam Chancellor SEA

18.   Sean Davis PIT

19.   Shawn Williams CIN

20.   Malcolm Jenkins PHI

21.   T.J. Ward DEN

22.   Tavon Wilson DET

23.   Rodney McLeod PHI

24.   D.J. Swearinger ARI

25.   Corey Graham BUF

26.   Eric Weddle BAL

27.   Miles Killebrew DET

28.   Eric Reid SFO

29.   Von Bell NOS

30.   Earl Thomas SEA

31.   Byron Jones DAL

32.   Daniel Sorensen KCC

33.   Antoine Bethea SFO

34.   Devin McCourty NEP

35.   Isa Abdul-Quddus MIA

36.   Kurt Coleman CAR

37.   Adrian Amos CHI

38.   Darian Stewart DEN

39.   Patrick Chung NEP

40.   Bradley McDougald TBB

41.   Calvin Pryor NYJ

42.   Darian Thompson NYG

43.   Jaquiski Tartt SFO

44.   Ricardo Allen ATL

45.   Kevin Byard TEN

46.   Donte Whitner WAS

47.   T.J. Green IND

48.   Deangelo Hall WAS

49.   T.J. McDonald RAM

50.   Keith Tandy TBB

51.   Derrick Kindred CLE

52.   Glover Quin DET

53.   Lardarius Webb BAL

54.   Da’Norris Searcy TEN

55.   Quintin Demps HOU

56.   Tre Boston CAR

57.   George Iloka CIN

58.   Micah Hyde GBP

59.   Harold Jones-Quartey CHI

60.   Jairus Byrd NOS

61.   Andre Hal HOU

62.   Reggie Nelson CIN

63.   Mike Adams IND

64.   Jordan Poyer CLE

65.   Duke Ihenacho WAS

66.   Dwight Lowery LAC

67.   Tashaun Gipson JAX

68.   Justin Simmons DEN

69.   Ibraheim Campbell CLE

70.   K.J. Dillon HOU

71.   Rontez Miles NYJ

72.   Ron Parker KCC

73.   Nate Allen OAK

74.   Duron Harmon NEP

75.   Aaron Williams BUF

76.   Marcus Gilchrist NYJ

77.   Maurice Alexander RAM

78.   Chris Conte TBB

79.   Jaylen Watkins PHI

80.   Rashad Johnson TEN

81.   Andrew Sendejo MIN

82.   Andrew Adams NYG

83.   Shamarko Thomas PIT

84.   Robert Blanton BUF

85.   Daimion Stafford TEN

86.   William Parks DEN

87.   Jayron Kearse MIN

88.   Rafael Bush DET

89.   Bacarri Rambo MIA

90.   Nat Berhe NYG

91.   JJ Wilcox DAL

92.   Ryan Smith TBB

93.   Robert Golden PIT

94.   Kelcie McCray SEA

95.   Tyvis Powell CLE

96.   Jeron Johnson SEA

97.   Kendrick Lewis BAL

98.   Dashon Goldson ATL

99.   Michael Griffin CAR

100.                        Matt Elam BAL

101.                        James Ihedigbo BUF

 

[onionsack]

OK, it’s way early in the off-season, but with no updated IDP rankings on the site for the past 4 months, I’m going to post mine [you'll have to scroll up just above this post to see them] just to get the conversation started. A few caveats: First of all, these rankings are going to be undergoing heavy revision over the next few weeks as free agency and the draft play havoc with players’ value. I’ll try to update them on occasion. Secondly, the leagues I play in are VERY deep (as a quick glance at the sheer number of players ranked will attest), and the top 50 (100 for LBs) players at every position are inevitably already on rosters in the leagues I play in. So my interest lies more in finding the players who are poised to assume productive roles, rather than the ones that are already there.

Also, these are DYNASTY rankings, based on the expected production to come over the entire likely FUTURE career of the player. There’s a heavier bias towards youth than one might be used to seeing, but again, I play in deep leagues where a young middle-tier player’s output over ten years might provide greater value than a veteran stud’s output for only one or two. Needless to add, you get no points for the production a player has already accumulated, and I’ve seen a lot of dynasty teams ruined by chasing past production.

Finally, I don’t do tiers. I think it’s a cop-out, and a way to avoid making tough decisions on the relative value of players. I also don’t find them particularly useful. At the end of the day, owners have to decide whether to add/drop/trade/protect a certain player over another player, and their decision has to take into account all of the factors involved anyway. So things like age, injury-risk, surrounding cast, possibility of position switch, off-the-field issues etc. are all baked into my rankings. Generally speaking, If I had a guy on my team, and I could trade him straight up for another player that’s higher on my rankings at the same position, I’d do it. Nor would it depend much on whether I was in “win-it-now” mode or in full rebuild. Because my teams are ALWAYS in win-it-now mode, and I’d almost never trade away a future asset just for some short-term gain in a dynasty league.

As for the current state of the NFL off-season, intriguing situations abound. What is Oakland going to do at middle linebacker? Perry Riley started the season on the street, but forced his way past Heeney and Cory James into the starting lineup and was a pleasant surprise. PFF graded him out as the #10 overall inside linebacker in the league, but he’s a UFA and it’s possible Oakland tries to upgrade here in the draft.

What will the new scheme in Cleveland mean? Emmanuel Ogbah could see a huge jump in value with the move to defensive end in a 4-3, particularly if they draft Myles Garrett to play across from him. Shelton has turned the corner but who will play at 3-tech?

What will Wade Phillips mean to the LA Rams defensive players? Will Aaron Donald still be designated a DT? Will he be as effective playing as a 5-tech DE? What about Robert Quinn? Assuming he returns to full health, will he thrive as an edge-rushing LB?

Whither Sheldon Richardson? He’s worn out his welcome in New York and has been linked to the Cowboys, Broncos, Redskins and Raiders amongst others. Whether he ends up as a 4-3 undertackle or a 3-4 DE (or the Jets keep him and let Kevin Greene try to turn him into an OLB) will have big consequences for his fantasy value.

Gus Bradley to the Chargers, which means 4-3…Bosa will be a monster, and Liuget gains value in DT leagues. How the linebackers play out is anyone’s guess. Jatavis Brown seems tailor-made for WILL. Perryman at Mike? He seems more of a two-down thumper. Is Te’o still in the mix? If Melvin Ingram hits the road, Jeremiah Attaochu becomes a sneaky add. If Ingram stays, he’s a top 10 DE. He seems the type of smallish DE that Bradley has gotten a lot of production out of in the past with Chris Clemons and Yannick Ngakoue.

Bills: Who’s at Mike? Ragland or Preston Brown? Could be extra value for Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson with a DE designation.

Will the Ravens pay nose tackle Brandon Williams? How are they going to replace Orr? Will Kamalei Correa get a chance at redemption?

Colts: The purge has begun with D’qwell Jackson getting jettisoned. They might have a totally revamped LB corps by the time the dust of free agency and the draft settles..

Ah...sifting through the team moves...best time of the year for dynasty leagues!

 

[Tick]

Thanks for posting.  Some LB feedback:

• Kirksey seems high with Collins in town.
  
• Zach Brown is strange so high with Ragland presumed the MLB and Brown a FA.
  
• Burfict is completely unreliable – could be out of the league at any second.
  
• Man, is that ever a cliff after 32.  Wow.
  
• Levy at 60 doesn’t look right at all.  Health, but you have Jaylon Smith and Bowman in the top 17.  Levy’s a monster if healthy.
  
• It seems like some mediocre SLB replacement level guys are ahead of guys with more upside like Morrison, Kwiatkoski, and Martinez.
  
• I’d have Daryl Washington somewhere on the list.
  

 

[ChicagoArch]

I am worried about Ragland. If the Bills resign Zach Brown, I think a typical 4-3 would dictate Zach at WILL, Preston at MIKE and Ragland, who rushed the passer on 3rd down in college, at SAM and coming off the field on passing situations. That said, Zach, Preston and Ragland are all 250+ lbs. Sean McDermott just came from a situation where he had 3 very good-to-elite starting LBs, none of whom were heavier than 235 lbs. If McDermott prefers faster, lighter LBs, I think all of these guys could be an issue and eventually need to find new homes. Between Preston and Ragland, I would prefer Preston hands down. Preston is only a year older than Ragland and has already produced. The chances of a guy who has already produced producing again are much higher than the chances of a guy who hasn't produced producing. If you understood that sentence, you're smarter than I am.

If the Bills don't resign Zach Brown, that may be the best scenario for Zach, even considering Buffalo's favorable stat crew. Whenever looking at potential landing spots for UFAs, people always consider the best possible location, i.e. every WR would be amazing if they went to New England. So take this with a grain of salt. But Zach could sign on in Baltimore as Orr's replacement. Zach could sign for Indy and play basically any spot on that defense that isn't played by Clayton Geathers (I'm not saying Brown could play D-Line or Safety, I'm simply pointing out the fact that the Colts defense is almost completely devoid of talent). KC is cash strapped but could sign him as Derrick Johnson's insurance/replacement. Even with the move to a 4-3, San Francisco could sign him as the Will to play next to Navarro Bowman.

 

[Gally]

Thanks for posting.  Some LB feedback:

• Kirksey seems high with Collins in town.
  
  
• Zach Brown is strange so high with Ragland presumed the MLB and Brown a FA.
  
  
• Burfict is completely unreliable – could be out of the league at any second.
  
  
• Man, is that ever a cliff after 32.  Wow.
  
  
• Levy at 60 doesn’t look right at all.  Health, but you have Jaylon Smith and Bowman in the top 17.  Levy’s a monster if healthy.
  
  
• It seems like some mediocre SLB replacement level guys are ahead of guys with more upside like Morrison, Kwiatkoski, and Martinez.
  
  
• I’d have Daryl Washington somewhere on the list.
  
  

I would also have Darron Lee (42) a bit higher.  I would maybe just switch Jack and Lee  because Lee has actually been on the field and produced some. 

 

[onionsack]

Cheers for the replies, very helpful in determining how others value players. I’ll try to respond to some of the above comments...

The injured guys are always hardest to rank and always draw the widest range of opinions. In general I’m probably more likely to take a chance on them if they’ve already got a track record of production, if only because I’m pretty confident I can find a gem or two in the bonepile if they never do recover and deliver on their upside. I actually thought I had Levy ranked pretty high for a guy who’s had multiple surgeries on different parts of his body, has barely played in two seasons, didn’t look particularly effective when he finally did hit the field, and is about to turn 30. If you head over to the Lions’ message boards, you’ll find even less enthusiasm for their LB corps, with many openly hoping Reuben Foster falls to their pick and many calling for a complete overhaul. I was able to move Levy in a league last year for 2nd and 3rd round rookie picks and I feel like I made out like a bandit. Obviously if he can regain his pre-injury form he’s a top-tier tackle machine, but at this point I’m willing to let others gamble on him. Definitely a guy that should be on everybody’s radar, though, if he shows a return to full fitness.

Bowman’s a couple years younger, and has already proven he can come back from a serious knee injury and thrive. Initial reports on his recovery from the Achilles injury are positive and he sounds very optimistic about a full return to health.

As for Jaylon Smith, this guy is the prototypical 3-down impact LB if he’s healthy and, judging from this recent workout, looks to be getting really close to full health. If anything, I’m likely to reach a little higher than where I currently have him to secure his services. He’s got a 3-down role waiting for him as soon as he’s ready, and could pay big dividends down the road.

The Browns have all kinds of holes to fill and it’s unlikely anyone gets drafted or acquired to compete with Kirksey in the near future. The linebackers were a rare unit of strength for them. Kirksey was the #5 overall IDP in Zealots scoring (#9 on average).  I think he and Collins will be on the field all day putting up big stats on a poor team. I’m assuming Kirksey’s penciled in at Mike on first down, but even if he isn’t, he’ll be in the nickel package a lot and playing 90% of downs.

Burfict? Yeah, a complete knucklehead, and he’s got his own injury history, but an undeniable wrecking ball in the middle of a defense. I don’t think I have him on any of my teams, but I always seem to wish I did. Owners who do have him and have had to weather his brainfarts and breakdowns personally will no doubt rank him lower and I probably should, too, due to the various risks associated with owning him.

The Bills are a real conundrum at the moment, in light of their switch to a 4-3. Zach Brown would be perfect at WILL in their new scheme, but will they pony up for his services? Everyone seems convinced that Ragland is going to walk into the starting job at Mike and terrorize the league. I don’t think that’s near as certain as people are betting. He was acquired for a first round rookie pick in one of my leagues, and I think that’s just madness. Both he and Preston Brown have coverage limitations so it’s going to be interesting to see how they settle into roles in this scheme, and what percentage of snaps they see.

Darron Lee: Just not a fan. Seems terribly miscast in a 3-4, and, at barely 215 pounds, I think he might eventually get converted to safety. He’d be much more effective as a WILL in a 4-3, but that’s not the scheme he’s in. There was a time when I thought Lawrence Timmons was similarly miscast in Pittsburgh, though, and that seemed to work out OK. Still, PFF’s evaluation doesn’t inspire a lot of hope: (PFF overall grade for Lee: 38.8)

“Darron Lee has all the athleticism and measurables in the world, but it’s looking less and less likely that there is a football player operating the controls. He is the lowest-graded rookie linebacker in the league and has allowed a passer rating of 132.9 when thrown at in coverage. In fact, the only area PFF measures that Lee has graded well in is discipline, thanks to just two penalties on the season.”

Again, thanks for the comments – the points were all well taken and very much appreciated!

 

[jacobo_moses]

Safety

1.       Landon Collins NYG

2.       Keanu Neal ATL

3.       Reshad Jones MIA

4.       Harrison Smith MIN

5.       Karl Joseph OAK

6.       Eric Berry KCC

7.       Johnathan Cyprien JAX

8.       Morgan Burnett GBP

9.       Tony Jefferson ARI

10.   Barry Church DAL

11.   Tyrann Mathieu ARI

12.   Clayton Geathers IND

13.   Jahleel Addae LAC

14.   Su’a Cravens WAS

15.   Kenny Vaccaro NOS

16.   Ha Ha Clinton-Dix GBP

17.   Kam Chancellor SEA

18.   Sean Davis PIT

19.   Shawn Williams CIN

20.   Malcolm Jenkins PHI

21.   T.J. Ward DEN

22.   Tavon Wilson DET

23.   Rodney McLeod PHI

24.   D.J. Swearinger ARI

25.   Corey Graham BUF

26.   Eric Weddle BAL

27.   Miles Killebrew DET

28.   Eric Reid SFO

29.   Von Bell NOS

30.   Earl Thomas SEA

31.   Byron Jones DAL

32.   Daniel Sorensen KCC

33.   Antoine Bethea SFO

34.   Devin McCourty NEP

35.   Isa Abdul-Quddus MIA

36.   Kurt Coleman CAR

37.   Adrian Amos CHI

38.   Darian Stewart DEN

39.   Patrick Chung NEP

40.   Bradley McDougald TBB

41.   Calvin Pryor NYJ

42.   Darian Thompson NYG

43.   Jaquiski Tartt SFO

44.   Ricardo Allen ATL

45.   Kevin Byard TEN

46.   Donte Whitner WAS

47.   T.J. Green IND

48.   Deangelo Hall WAS

49.   T.J. McDonald RAM

50.   Keith Tandy TBB

51.   Derrick Kindred CLE

52.   Glover Quin DET

53.   Lardarius Webb BAL

54.   Da’Norris Searcy TEN

55.   Quintin Demps HOU

56.   Tre Boston CAR

57.   George Iloka CIN

58.   Micah Hyde GBP

59.   Harold Jones-Quartey CHI

60.   Jairus Byrd NOS

61.   Andre Hal HOU

62.   Reggie Nelson CIN

63.   Mike Adams IND

64.   Jordan Poyer CLE

65.   Duke Ihenacho WAS

66.   Dwight Lowery LAC

67.   Tashaun Gipson JAX

68.   Justin Simmons DEN

69.   Ibraheim Campbell CLE

70.   K.J. Dillon HOU

71.   Rontez Miles NYJ

72.   Ron Parker KCC

73.   Nate Allen OAK

74.   Duron Harmon NEP

75.   Aaron Williams BUF

76.   Marcus Gilchrist NYJ

77.   Maurice Alexander RAM

78.   Chris Conte TBB

79.   Jaylen Watkins PHI

80.   Rashad Johnson TEN

81.   Andrew Sendejo MIN

82.   Andrew Adams NYG

83.   Shamarko Thomas PIT

84.   Robert Blanton BUF

85.   Daimion Stafford TEN

86.   William Parks DEN

87.   Jayron Kearse MIN

88.   Rafael Bush DET

89.   Bacarri Rambo MIA

90.   Nat Berhe NYG

91.   JJ Wilcox DAL

92.   Ryan Smith TBB

93.   Robert Golden PIT

94.   Kelcie McCray SEA

95.   Tyvis Powell CLE

96.   Jeron Johnson SEA

97.   Kendrick Lewis BAL

98.   Dashon Goldson ATL

99.   Michael Griffin CAR

100.                        Matt Elam BAL

101.                        James Ihedigbo BUF

So Geathers stays at SS right? With this ranking. Or do you think he goes to LB?

 

[GECKO]

Good stuff unionsack!

 

[onionsack]

So Geathers stays at SS right? With this ranking. Or do you think he goes to LB?

Really good question. My assumption is that he keeps his safety designation (hence his inclusion among the safeties), but he's one of those tweeners who spends a lot of time in the box no matter what, and his coaches are clearly pondering the possibility of playing him at ILB in order to cover up what is clearly the team's Achilles heal. This is one of those situations where, while the draft and free agency will go a long way in clearing things up, his value should be pretty considerable no matter what ensues. I'm pretty bullish on him.

 

[Tick]

It's weird how these things go in cycles.  It wasn't long ago that Adam Archuleta was unemployable because he was such a strange thing: a safety/linebacker tweener.  No place for that in the game!

 

[onionsack]

Levy released, not offered pay cut. This was my fear - that he's just not the same player after all of those injuries. Still hoping he can get his health back and be an impact player, though. Man, could the Packers use him..

 

[Tick]

Levy released, not offered pay cut. This was my fear - that he's just not the same player after all of those injuries. Still hoping he can get his health back and be an impact player, though. Man, could the Packers use him..

Yup, you were right - he was so good, it sucks to see this happen to guys.

 

[jacobo_moses]

Yup, you were right - he was so good, it sucks to see this happen to guys.

So who is the LB in DET to own? Besides Whitehead?

 

[Tick]

So who is the LB in DET to own? Besides Whitehead?

Sounds like Worrilow.

 

[WagesOfZin]

quite possibly not on the roster yet.  

 

[matttyl]

Any update to these?  Would love to hear your thoughts on Sua Cravens. 

 

[Snorkelson]

Where do you guys rank Ingram and Hughes with the change from 3-4 LB to 4-3 DE? 

 

[Flying Elvis]

quite possibly not on the roster yet.  

and the winner is . . . 

Jarrad Davis! 

Some updates on guys with changes to designations, teams, and competition (draft) would be helpful, for sure. 

 

[Hankmoody]

Where do you guys rank Ingram and Hughes with the change from 3-4 LB to 4-3 DE? 

Big impact for Ingram.  He'll be playing LEO which is the premier pass rush role in that defense.

 

[NingDynasty]

Big impact for Ingram.  He'll be playing LEO which is the premier pass rush role in that defense.

That's certainly the hope from an IDP perspective. I'm still seeing some reports that illustrate how good of a coverage backer he is and the door isn't shut on him playing sam. I'm really tempted to see if I can get him at LB pricing but the speculative designation by Rotoworld may have closed the window.

 

[matttyl]

Big impact for Ingram.  He'll be playing LEO which is the premier pass rush role in that defense.

Chances MFL changes his designation to LB before the season?

 

[Hankmoody]

Chances MFL changes his designation to LB before the season?

MFL doesn't make the changes.  They import position designations from Rotoworld.  Rotoworld assign the designation based on what they see on the field.  So it all depends on how LAC are lining him up.  That's the reason I created the All 32 defensive schemes thread, so we could get and stay in front of any changes people are seeing as their teams/players line up.  The good news is Roto doesn't make changes once the season starts (or MFL doesn't import changes, I forget which) so once the regular season starts it's locked in.  We just need to keep our eyes open so we can improve the accuracy of our speculation.

 

[matttyl]

MFL doesn't make the changes.  They import position designations from Rotoworld.  Rotoworld assign the designation based on what they see on the field.  So it all depends on how LAC are lining him up.  That's the reason I created the All 32 defensive schemes thread, so we could get and stay in front of any changes people are seeing as their teams/players line up.  The good news is Roto doesn't make changes once the season starts (or MFL doesn't import changes, I forget which) so once the regular season starts it's locked in.  We just need to keep our eyes open so we can improve the accuracy of our speculation.

Yeah, that's what I meant.  I guess I'm asking what the odds of that are. 

Looking back at my 2016 MFL league, position designation changes happened May 3, June 8, July 13, two more in August, and one last pretty big one on September 5.  If that holds true for this year, we've got 4 more adjustments to get through.

 

[Hankmoody]

Right, but I think only LAC coaches could give odds at this point.   It's about how he's used.  If Attochu sucks as a SAM they may flop him and Ingram, who is known to be a pretty good cover guy.  If Ingram isn't as comfortable playing with him hand in the dirt maybe he changes.  It's not just about how he lines up in base either.  There's a Khaili Mack thread floating around here summarizing how Mack lined up last year.  Paraphrasing, it was something like "80% of base was as DE, but that was only 35% of all plays.  He lined up at OLB on 65% of the total snaps, thus the change".

As we get reports from TC, as we see preseason games, we'll get a better sense with that info. 

 

[matttyl]

Right, but I think only LAC coaches could give odds at this point.   It's about how he's used.  If Attochu sucks as a SAM they may flop him and Ingram, who is known to be a pretty good cover guy.  If Ingram isn't as comfortable playing with him hand in the dirt maybe he changes.  It's not just about how he lines up in base either.  There's a Khaili Mack thread floating around here summarizing how Mack lined up last year.  Paraphrasing, it was something like "80% of base was as DE, but that was only 35% of all plays.  He lined up at OLB on 65% of the total snaps, thus the change".

As we get reports from TC, as we see preseason games, we'll get a better sense with that info. 

Assuming he stays at DL, though - can we expect a top 10 DL season from him in this role?

 

[Gally]

Assuming he stays at DL, though - can we expect a top 10 DL season from him in this role?

I wouldn't put him quite that high.  I would put him in the top 20-ish of DL.  Looking at the scoring for my league last year (Big Play:  8 pts sack/1 pt per tackle) and he would have finished 20th as a DL.  I would expect he would be in the same general area. 

 

[matttyl]

I wouldn't put him quite that high.  I would put him in the top 20-ish of DL.  Looking at the scoring for my league last year (Big Play:  8 pts sack/1 pt per tackle) and he would have finished 20th as a DL.  I would expect he would be in the same general area. 

Hmm.  He's averaged 48.5 solos, 14 assisted, 9 sacks, 6 passes defended (likely batted down), and 4.5 fumble/recoveries the last two years - and for whatever it's worth MFL is projecting (via fantasy sharks) a slight bump in solos and an even 10 sacks.  That's typically good enough for top 5 production in a typical scoring IDP league.  It was slightly better than what Oliver Vernon did last year, who was #5 in my league.

 

[Hankmoody]

Assuming he stays at DL, though - can we expect a top 10 DL season from him in this role?

Now this one I'll plant a flag on and say yes.  He would have been DL2 last year.  He probably won't get quite the tackle total but might be in better position to get a couple more sacks to help offset that.

 

[Hankmoody]

Hmm.  He's averaged 48.5 solos, 14 assisted, 9 sacks, 6 passes defended (likely batted down), and 4.5 fumble/recoveries the last two years - and for whatever it's worth MFL is projecting (via fantasy sharks) a slight bump in solos and an even 10 sacks.  That's typically good enough for top 5 production in a typical scoring IDP league.  It was slightly better than what Oliver Vernon did last year, who was #5 in my league.

Those are lining up at LB though, with different duties.  He'll be asked to set the edge a lot more now rather than attack and wrap.  Reasonable to expect those to drop. 

 

[matttyl]

Those are lining up at LB though, with different duties.  He'll be asked to set the edge a lot more now rather than attack and wrap.  Reasonable to expect those to drop. 

Thanks for all the info.  Let me get the timeline right, though - I don't watch much Chargers football.  For the past two years he's been playing OLB in a 3-4.  They are shifting to a 4-3, where he'll be a DE (opposite Bosa)?

 

[Gally]

Hmm.  He's averaged 48.5 solos, 14 assisted, 9 sacks, 6 passes defended (likely batted down), and 4.5 fumble/recoveries the last two years - and for whatever it's worth MFL is projecting (via fantasy sharks) a slight bump in solos and an even 10 sacks.  That's typically good enough for top 5 production in a typical scoring IDP league.  It was slightly better than what Oliver Vernon did last year, who was #5 in my league.

With our big play league (8:1 sack to tackle) and Ingram "only" having 8 sacks last year he really went down the list.  We also give a bump to DT (2pts per tackle & 10 pts per sack vs 1 pt/8pts for all other positions) so that skewed the overall DL rankings probably more than most scoring systems. 

For just DE he would have been #9 overall based on last years totals.  So I guess in most scoring systems I can agree he will be a top 10 DE this year.  My scoring system devalues him a little bit but will still have more value than he would have had as a LB.(top 30 LB based on last year's stats in my scoring).   

 

[Hankmoody]

Thanks for all the info.  Let me get the timeline right, though - I don't watch much Chargers football.  For the past two years he's been playing OLB in a 3-4.  They are shifting to a 4-3, where he'll be a DE (opposite Bosa)?

Yes, and was very good in coverage too so collected quite a few tackles and passes defended in the process.  That could actually work for him, if he's able to sniff out screens and shovel passes, but overall he'll be taking on more blocks and setting the edge (keeping the tackle in front of him and preventing the run from getting outside, funneling the RB upfield to a waiting LB like Perryman or Brown).