Dynasty Rankings (6 Viewers)

[editor47]

Hindsight is 20/20. McGahee and McClain played okay for the Ravens last year. Willie Parker was an established former Pro Bowler who was only 29 years old at the start of the season. Sure, it's easy to say these players were minor obstacles now that we have the benefit of hindsight, but it wasn't as if everyone expected Rice and Mendenhall to emerge as starters this season. If anything, people were skeptical (sort of like how you're skeptical about Brown and Greene).

All off-season and through the first few weeks, the vast majority were going on about how big a bust Mendenhall was. Far more down on him than anyone is about Brown and Greene right now. If I were a Ricky Williams owner, I'd giggle with glee if I could pry away Brown or Greene in a trade for him. Especially Greene. He's wonderfully positioned to take over for Thomas Jones in a promising run-oriented offense. Maybe it takes another year or two. Maybe he busts out. But his value upside beyond this year is so much higher than Ricky Williams' short-term value.

You are assuming this remains a run-oriented offense ... it could be. It could just as easily go the way of the rest of the NFL and become a Mark Sanchez offense when he develops.

 

[SSOG]

Well, for one, some might think last year's draft class was relatively weak - several good players; no great ones. And next year's won't be. (I don't know; pure speculation. Just throwing out a rationale).

If anything, next year's draft class is looking far weaker at RB than this year's. Besides, if that's your rationale, then trade Green or Brown for a future 1st and be done with it.

wasn't MY rationale. just A rationale for making a trade now to win.

I never said that it was your rationale, just that it was a bad rationale. If your mindset is that last year's draft sucked, then the solution isn't to trade the fruits for other dynasty assets that suck just as much, it's to trade them for dynasty assets that don't suck.

 

[editor47]

Well, for one, some might think last year's draft class was relatively weak - several good players; no great ones. And next year's won't be. (I don't know; pure speculation. Just throwing out a rationale).

If anything, next year's draft class is looking far weaker at RB than this year's. Besides, if that's your rationale, then trade Green or Brown for a future 1st and be done with it.

wasn't MY rationale. just A rationale for making a trade now to win.

I never said that it was your rationale, just that it was a bad rationale. If your mindset is that last year's draft sucked, then the solution isn't to trade the fruits for other dynasty assets that suck just as much, it's to trade them for dynasty assets that don't suck.

mea culpa

 

[MAC_32]

Hey all, I was wondering if I could get some thoughts on some IRed players. Generally these guys can be gotten fairly cheap if the other person doesn't have space to spare and are still in the hunt. Plyers like....

James Davis - A lot of talk preseason for him, will be taking over Lewis with Harrison next year.

Leon Washington - We know hes good, especially in return leagues, but will Greene take full brunt of the snaps when/if Jones leaves at years end?

Laurent Robinson - We saw him 'break out' of sorts before getting injured. I don't know if he will ever step up as a viable WR though.

Kevin Jones - Still in Chiggy, can possibly get time back if Forte continues his average performances through the year (Not that he's a stud by any stretch)

Andre Brown - Homer in me likes him, and will probably get his fair chance with the pill depending on how we finish out the year running-wise

Thought it could be a decent batch of info on who to target for those with the space.

The Browns are void of play makers, it isn't all going to be fixed in one offseason and if Mangini's team building model from the past is being utilized in Cleveland he will not make RB a priority this offseason, nor should he. Davis is a quliaty buy if you can wrestle him from an owner.Leon had a horrible leg injury, buying him depends on the cost. I got him for Josh Morgan, my #8 WR at the time. My RB's are horrible as my battle for #2 behind Chris Johnson is between Moreno, Forsett, Snelling, and Jerome Harrison. He was worth that risk. We'll see what the Jets do this offseason at RB, Greene's not going to be the all purpose back so if another isn't brought in Leon will get an opportunity and there will be reason to believe his rehab is going well.

Robinson started to show his potential, but then did what he does every year, and got hurt. He's worth the roster spot but I wouldn't pay much to get him unless your WR situation looks like the RB situation I diagramed above.

KJ = done, unfortunately

From what I read Andre Brown had the leg up on the #3 role before his injury, with Bradshaw's contract expiring after 2010 and Jacobs nearing 30 at that time an opportunity may present itself. Quality buy.

 

[Sinrj]

Williams shouldn't be so expensive. For a non-playoff team he's a liability.

I'm reluctant to jump in the Greene train (if any). He's already 24 with limited experience. If he isn't starting next year (2010) he'll be 26 at the start of 2011 season. He's almost 2 years older then Stewart with a similar ETA. Not a ton of upside here IMO.

 

[MAC_32]

Sorry to come in a little late on this...I have no qualms at all going WR/QB-heavy in an initial dynasty draft, provided the value is there. Sure, if your RBs aren't competitive, you can probably kiss off the idea of being a contender in year one. But that's ok. Bad teams get good rookie draft picks and since RB is the most plug-and-play of the positions in question, you can grab a hot rookie (or trade the high pick for an up-and-comer that you prefer) to go with some of the high-upside, value backs you initially drafted and/or accumulated along the way. Then you are strong at all positions and are ready to wreak havoc for 3-6 years.

I'm never willing to punt a year on purpose. I think that's ludicrous. It defeats the whole purpose of competing. It's also a year without a banner, which makes F&L cry.

I am, but not in an inaugural season. That's silly. I inherited a garbage dynasty team 2 seasons ago and sold off all older pieces of value, dumped the rest, and then began to build my team. I had zero chance at competing last season regardless and my team's better off now because of it. There are only two players remaining from the team I inherited 21 months ago - Charles Tillman and Lwarence Timmons. Willie Parker, Joey Galloway, Keith Brooking, Zach Thomas, Lee Evans, LenDale White, Marc Bulger, and Patrick Crayton are all doing nothing elsewhere and that's some of the best my team had to offer. The only player I moved that I should not have was Heath Miller, although he was a big part in me acquiring Welker. My team is now 5-5, 5th in total points and features Carson Palmer (bought while hurt last year)Chad Henne Chris Johnson (part of the Parker deal)Knowshon MorenoJustin Forsett Sidney Rice (cost a draft pick downgrade and Crayton)Mike Sims-Walker (throw-in on deal sending Zach Miller and Bulger elsewhere)Nate Burleson (plucked off waivers after getting roster bubbled by another owner during the offseason)Percy HarvinMike WallaceDustin Keller (also part of Sims-Walker deal)Good but not great IDP's - I won't go into details here since it is not applicable to most of youI've also since acquired and sold Orton (before hurting his ankle in 08), Welker, Royal, and Pierre Thomas. I've now got a decent core, have 5 of the first 25 picks next season, and an extra 1st rounder in each of the 011 and 012 drafts.My long winded point being, there is a time to give up on this season before it starts, it depends on how bad the roster is.

 

[corpcow]

This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value.

Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Wrong. It's not a question of absolute dynasty value; it's a cost-benefit analysis. In this case, the benefit is that he likely wins his league (if you assume that Ricky will be a top 5 back down the stretch which I believe he will). The cost is a future prospect, but in this case he has a NUMBER of good young prospects.I said it repeatedly, but in THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, if you can trade Green for Ricky I would do it.

Don't make this trade under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE...........Classic sell high. Ricky will not sustain last nights performance thru the rest of the year.

Will Ricky continue to average 3 TDs per game? Probably not. But I think it's silly to dismiss his numbers matter of factly.I'm not looking at last night's performance - I'm looking at the collective success of the Miami running game, how good Ricky has been as a major part of that, and the fact that he has (definitely) the lion's share of the load for the rest of the year. Prior to this week, Ricky was in most of my leagues RB13, with Ronnie at RB9. Collectively, they are far and away the most successful tandem backfield in the NFL.

Up to last week, Ricky had 103 carries to Ronnie's 148 (41% vs. 59%). Ricky is actually averaging a higher YPC (5.41 vs. 4.39) but Ronnie has more touches and more TDs (8 vs. 6). He's also been slightly more effective in the passing game (18/193/1 vs. 14/98/0). Now if you look at week 11, Ricky got 71% of the carries (and 77% of the production, and 100% of the TD opportunities).

Even while only getting a minority of the RB touches, he was putting up better numbers than a bunch of other RB1s. In my main league, he was only 5 pts behind Steven Jackson prior to this week, and ahead of Forte, Grant, Barber, LT, Slaton, etc etc.

Let's assume that their running game suffers (10-15% less production) and that he continues to get 70-75% of the work with Ronnie out. That would put him at RB4 production is n most leagues if we project forward...

 

[corpcow]

Hindsight is 20/20. McGahee and McClain played okay for the Ravens last year. Willie Parker was an established former Pro Bowler who was only 29 years old at the start of the season. Sure, it's easy to say these players were minor obstacles now that we have the benefit of hindsight, but it wasn't as if everyone expected Rice and Mendenhall to emerge as starters this season. If anything, people were skeptical (sort of like how you're skeptical about Brown and Greene).

All off-season and through the first few weeks, the vast majority were going on about how big a bust Mendenhall was. Far more down on him than anyone is about Brown and Greene right now. If I were a Ricky Williams owner, I'd giggle with glee if I could pry away Brown or Greene in a trade for him. Especially Greene. He's wonderfully positioned to take over for Thomas Jones in a promising run-oriented offense. Maybe it takes another year or two. Maybe he busts out. But his value upside beyond this year is so much higher than Ricky Williams' short-term value.

T.Jones is being written off way too quickly IMO. Yes, he's getting up there in age, but let's not forget that he is both a workout warrior AND he has relatively few miles on him for that age given his early career struggles. I also think he's a much more complete (and underrated) back that most give him credit for. Even if this remains a run-oriented offense behind this line, I don't think you can just project Green into the Jones role. As I've said repeatedly in the past, Green is a fairly one-dimensional back. If Leon didn't get hurt and Jones was gone next year, I truly believe (and have heard similar refrains echoed from Jets RB staff who are friends of the family) that it was about giving Leon a bigger role. Leon is a dynamic playmaker but (probably) can't hold up as a do-everything back. Meanwhile, Green is good in some circumstances but among other things can't catch for ####. The upside - if he hits it big - is Rudi Johnson for me. So, an absolute scale, what you said is likely the case - but then trading is rarely about absolute value but rather relative value. In this case, given the rest of his youth at RB, I think the short-term gain is worth the potential long-term loss.

 

[Tau837]

It's not reactionary at all. I would have said the same thing before the game last night... no good reason to give Stewart as many carries as Williams. IMO Williams is one of the top few RBs in the NFL and Stewart is not in that tier.

And as long as we're going to discuss their ypc, let's get it right. Williams is averaging 5.4 ypc on the season, Stewart is averaging 4.6.

NOW they are, but it'd be pretty darn silly for a coaching staff to base the carry split in the game on what the two RBs ypc values would be... AFTER THE GAME. Going into the Miami game, Williams was at 5.1 on the year, and Stewart was at 4.8 for the year... which is a heck of a lot more relevant to what happened during the game than their ypc figures after the game was over.

OK. Let me say this now so there is no confusion. IMO Williams has proven that he deserves quite a bit more carries and touches than Stewart in every single game going forward this year, barring injury to Williams. I agree Stewart can play a valuable role, but it should be a smaller role than Williams.

 

[Tau837]

2) Skillset. My opinion is that Stewart simply has more tools in his belt, so to speak. DeAngelo has some wicked tools at his disposal, but it seems to me that he's lacking a bit in the "power" moveset department. He doesn't have Stewart's filthy stiffarm, he doesn't have Stewart's mass or leg drive (and the resulting ability to push a pile), he doesn't seem to have Stewart's willingness to lower his shoulder and finish off a run.

OK, so you think Williams does not have some skills, or at least to the same degree, that Stewart has. Are you saying the reverse is not also true? That is, do you not agree that Stewart does not have some skills, or at least to the same degree, that Williams has?

3) Coaching Staff Support. DeAngelo Williams was platooned with DeSean Foster... who, let's face it, was awful. When Foster left and Williams was set to inherit the job all to himself, the coaching staff went out and spent the #13 overall draft pick on Stewart. These guys see Williams every single day in practices, and they're fully aware of his skills and his limitations. One possible interpretation of those moves is that the coaching staff is leery of giving him the full load all to himself. True, another possible interpretation is that the coaching staff is filled with morons, but it raises a red flag, however small, that hasn't yet been raised for Stewart (not only is he platooning with a better back than Williams was to start his career, he's also getting a larger share of the platoon than Williams did to start his career, and he's performing better with his share than Williams did to start his career).

IMO it's hard to use what Fox has done as justification for anything. He has mismanaged the Carolina RB situation consistently in his tenure. He has obviously botched the QB situation. I'm sure Carolina homers could chime in with some other issues. Case in point is that it was obviously wrong of Fox not to use Williams much more extensively in his first two seasons... and now, IMO, he is giving carries to Stewart that should go to Williams, so the mismanagement continues.

 

[Tau837]

And you really don't need me to tell you how stupid the "Team X wins more when the RB gets more carries" argument is. It's a complete bastardization of correlation and causation. Hell, the Oakland Raiders are undefeated when Darren McFadden gets 20+ carries! I understand your point (Williams is a great player, get him the ball), but it simplifies the matter too much. From where I sit, there are three great players on the Panthers offense- Williams, Smiff, and Stewart. I think Smiff is more talented than Williams, and I think Stewart factors more prominently in the team's long-term plans, which means you can't really involve Williams at the expense of either.

This was already addressed. I didn't say it was causation. But it is fact. And the bolded is really where we disagree. IMO Williams is their best player, followed by Smith. And with Williams under contract through next season, there is no compelling need to get Stewart more touches now just because he "factors more prominently in the team's long term plans." They have plenty of time for that if and when Williams is gone, gets hurt, or loses effectiveness. None of those things are true right now, so it is perfectly reasonable for them to give Williams the majority of touches and hold Stewart in a more minor role for now.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Sorry to come in a little late on this...I have no qualms at all going WR/QB-heavy in an initial dynasty draft, provided the value is there. Sure, if your RBs aren't competitive, you can probably kiss off the idea of being a contender in year one. But that's ok. Bad teams get good rookie draft picks and since RB is the most plug-and-play of the positions in question, you can grab a hot rookie (or trade the high pick for an up-and-comer that you prefer) to go with some of the high-upside, value backs you initially drafted and/or accumulated along the way. Then you are strong at all positions and are ready to wreak havoc for 3-6 years.

I'm never willing to punt a year on purpose. I think that's ludicrous. It defeats the whole purpose of competing. It's also a year without a banner, which makes F&L cry.

I am, but not in an inaugural season. That's silly. I inherited a garbage dynasty team 2 seasons ago and sold off all older pieces of value, dumped the rest, and then began to build my team. I had zero chance at competing last season regardless and my team's better off now because of it. There are only two players remaining from the team I inherited 21 months ago - Charles Tillman and Lwarence Timmons. Willie Parker, Joey Galloway, Keith Brooking, Zach Thomas, Lee Evans, LenDale White, Marc Bulger, and Patrick Crayton are all doing nothing elsewhere and that's some of the best my team had to offer. The only player I moved that I should not have was Heath Miller, although he was a big part in me acquiring Welker. My team is now 5-5, 5th in total points and features Carson Palmer (bought while hurt last year)Chad Henne Chris Johnson (part of the Parker deal)Knowshon MorenoJustin Forsett Sidney Rice (cost a draft pick downgrade and Crayton)Mike Sims-Walker (throw-in on deal sending Zach Miller and Bulger elsewhere)Nate Burleson (plucked off waivers after getting roster bubbled by another owner during the offseason)Percy HarvinMike WallaceDustin Keller (also part of Sims-Walker deal)Good but not great IDP's - I won't go into details here since it is not applicable to most of youI've also since acquired and sold Orton (before hurting his ankle in 08), Welker, Royal, and Pierre Thomas. I've now got a decent core, have 5 of the first 25 picks next season, and an extra 1st rounder in each of the 011 and 012 drafts.My long winded point being, there is a time to give up on this season before it starts, it depends on how bad the roster is.

finally a "here is my team" post that is thoughtful and worthwhile not like LOOK AT MY TEAM?

 

[SSOG]

OK, so you think Williams does not have some skills, or at least to the same degree, that Stewart has. Are you saying the reverse is not also true? That is, do you not agree that Stewart does not have some skills, or at least to the same degree, that Williams has?

Like I said, DeAngelo has some wicked tools at his disposal. He just doesn't have as many NFL-caliber tools as Stewart. To make up some oversimplified examples... say there are 4 "tools" that an RB needs to succeed. Stewart will score a 6/10 or higher in all four categories. Williams might have a 10/10 in two of the categories, but he only has a 3/10 and 4/10 in the other two. So yes, he is absolutely and unequivocally better in some respects than Stewart, but I think Stewart has a broader and more robust skillset at his disposal.

IMO it's hard to use what Fox has done as justification for anything. He has mismanaged the Carolina RB situation consistently in his tenure. He has obviously botched the QB situation. I'm sure Carolina homers could chime in with some other issues. Case in point is that it was obviously wrong of Fox not to use Williams much more extensively in his first two seasons... and now, IMO, he is giving carries to Stewart that should go to Williams, so the mismanagement continues.

But the fact that he continues to "mismanage" and err on the side of giving Williams too few carries is telling. It's like Mewelde Moore- every coach he played for gave him fewer carries than NFL fans thought he deserved. Eventually, you have to assume that the coaches (who, it should be noted, see MUCH more of Williams than you or I ever do) believe, for one reason or another, that Williams shouldn't be getting more carries. One possible explanation is that the coaches are all morons and are all wrong. Another explanation is that the coaches know more than we do, and Williams isn't built to be a workhorse for one reason or another. Again, this isn't meant as a major criticism of Williams, who I have ranked as an easy top-10 dynasty RB, but it's definitely a red flag, however tiny of one it might be, and it's a red flag that Stewart doesn't possess. The only "error" the coaches have made on Stewart's behalf is getting him TOO MANY carries (at least in your opinion).You asked why I thought that Stewart was better suited to being a workhorse than Williams, and whether you think the coaching staff are all idiots or not, the fact that they have habitually given Williams fewer carries than he deserves in all situations, and have (in your opinion) given Stewart MORE carries than he deserves in all situations, is a factor in that opinion.

This was already addressed. I didn't say it was causation. But it is fact. And the bolded is really where we disagree. IMO Williams is their best player, followed by Smith. And with Williams under contract through next season, there is no compelling need to get Stewart more touches now just because he "factors more prominently in the team's long term plans." They have plenty of time for that if and when Williams is gone, gets hurt, or loses effectiveness. None of those things are true right now, so it is perfectly reasonable for them to give Williams the majority of touches and hold Stewart in a more minor role for now.

As soon as Williams carries an entire offense on his shoulders, I'll call him a better talent than Smiff. In the mean time, Smitty's #1.Also, what is Carolina going to do this season? Realistically, what is the most they can hope to accomplish? This team is going nowhere this year, so why on earth shouldn't they give Stewart a bigger role if he's the guy who figures more prominently in their long-term plans?

 

[Slim25]

How I built my team that was terrible (made by me) through 5 years

Garcia, Jeff PHI QB 102.30 9 FA

McNair, Steve BAL QB 213.00 7 24.12

Palmer, Carson CIN QB 266.20 5 4.10

Dillon, Corey NEP RB 186.90 6 5.11

Jones, Greg JAC RB (I) - 6 12.04

Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 278.70 6 11.02

Maroney, Laurence NEP RB 156.90 6 3.10

Nash, Damien DEN RB 14.70 4 FA

Taylor, Fred JAC RB 195.80 6 9.05

Driver, Donald GBP WR 269.40 6 6.01

Glenn, Terry DAL WR 211.80 3 14.12

Horn, Joe NOS WR 129.90 7 11.03

Smith, Steve CAR WR 259.70 9 2.01

Crumpler, Alge ATL TE 182.00 5 6.06

Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE 31.60 6 22.10

Graham, Shayne CIN PK 119.00 5 21.02

Holliday, Vonnie MIA DT 112.50 8 FA

Peppers, Julius CAR DE 147.50 9 7.12

Strahan, Michael NYG DE 67.00 4 15.01

Crowder, Channing MIA LB 151.50 8 26.09

Davis, Thomas CAR LB 149.50 9 24.10

Farrior, James PIT LB 208.60 4 19.05

James, Bradie DAL LB 185.50 3 FA

Tatupu, Lofa SEA LB 207.40 5 8.04

Marshall, Richard CAR CB 197.90 9 FA

Bell, Yeremiah MIA S 148.00 8 FA

Boulware, Michael SEA S 86.10 5 20.04

Landry, Dawan BAL S 164.60 7 FA

Williams, Roy DAL S 155.80 3 15.05

Current Team

QB1 Rodgers (Pos Rank1) Acquired in trade for Palmer

QB2 Cutler Acquired in trade for Quinn, B and 2nd round draft pick

QB3 Favre 4th round rookie draft pick

QB4 Young F/A

RB1 Chris Johnson Acquired in Trade before 2008 began for Brandon Jacobs

RB2 Maurice Jones Drew

RB3 Ladainian Tomlinson Acquired in Trade for Larry Johnson & Mendenhall 2008

RB4 Ladell Betts Trade for Donald Brown

WR1 Calvin Johnson Acquired in Trade for Steve Smith

WR2 Greg Jennings

WR3 Marques Colston Acquired in Trade for Clinton Portis

WR4 Desean Jackson Trade for Lee Evans

WR5 Hakeem Nicks 1.09

TE1 Kellen Winslow Trade for Greg Olsen

TE2 Dustin Keller 2.06

DL1 Julius Peppers

DL2 Justin Tuck Trade for LeRon McClain

LB1 Jon Beason Traded Lofa Tatupu

LB2 Curtis Lofton Traded future 2nd round pick

LB3 James Lauriniatis 1.11

LB4 Thomas Davis

LB5 Hunter Hillenmeyer FA

DB1 Eric Weddle FA

DB2 Brian Dawkins Traded Gibril Wilson

 

[Tau837]

IMO it's hard to use what Fox has done as justification for anything. He has mismanaged the Carolina RB situation consistently in his tenure. He has obviously botched the QB situation. I'm sure Carolina homers could chime in with some other issues. Case in point is that it was obviously wrong of Fox not to use Williams much more extensively in his first two seasons... and now, IMO, he is giving carries to Stewart that should go to Williams, so the mismanagement continues.

But the fact that he continues to "mismanage" and err on the side of giving Williams too few carries is telling. It's like Mewelde Moore- every coach he played for gave him fewer carries than NFL fans thought he deserved. Eventually, you have to assume that the coaches (who, it should be noted, see MUCH more of Williams than you or I ever do) believe, for one reason or another, that Williams shouldn't be getting more carries. One possible explanation is that the coaches are all morons and are all wrong. Another explanation is that the coaches know more than we do, and Williams isn't built to be a workhorse for one reason or another. Again, this isn't meant as a major criticism of Williams, who I have ranked as an easy top-10 dynasty RB, but it's definitely a red flag, however tiny of one it might be, and it's a red flag that Stewart doesn't possess. The only "error" the coaches have made on Stewart's behalf is getting him TOO MANY carries (at least in your opinion).You asked why I thought that Stewart was better suited to being a workhorse than Williams, and whether you think the coaching staff are all idiots or not, the fact that they have habitually given Williams fewer carries than he deserves in all situations, and have (in your opinion) given Stewart MORE carries than he deserves in all situations, is a factor in that opinion.

Your Mewelde Moore comparison is a poor one. Moore has played for 3 NFL head coaches. Williams has played only for Fox, who has consistently mismanaged his RBs.

This was already addressed. I didn't say it was causation. But it is fact. And the bolded is really where we disagree. IMO Williams is their best player, followed by Smith. And with Williams under contract through next season, there is no compelling need to get Stewart more touches now just because he "factors more prominently in the team's long term plans." They have plenty of time for that if and when Williams is gone, gets hurt, or loses effectiveness. None of those things are true right now, so it is perfectly reasonable for them to give Williams the majority of touches and hold Stewart in a more minor role for now.

As soon as Williams carries an entire offense on his shoulders, I'll call him a better talent than Smiff. In the mean time, Smitty's #1.

Smith carried the Carolina offense in 2005. I don't think that really carries a lot of weight in 2009.

Also, what is Carolina going to do this season? Realistically, what is the most they can hope to accomplish? This team is going nowhere this year, so why on earth shouldn't they give Stewart a bigger role if he's the guy who figures more prominently in their long-term plans?

Call me crazy, but I think they should be trying their best to win every game on their schedule. The way to do that is to give the most touches to their best player. It's not like they need to see what they have in Stewart before his contract expires, or something like that... they know he is good. In fact, one could argue that, knowing that, they should strive to keep his touches down this year and next year to minimize wear and tear and risk of injury and maximize his effectiveness when he presumably takes over in 2011.

 

[MAC_32]

Sorry to come in a little late on this...I have no qualms at all going WR/QB-heavy in an initial dynasty draft, provided the value is there. Sure, if your RBs aren't competitive, you can probably kiss off the idea of being a contender in year one. But that's ok. Bad teams get good rookie draft picks and since RB is the most plug-and-play of the positions in question, you can grab a hot rookie (or trade the high pick for an up-and-comer that you prefer) to go with some of the high-upside, value backs you initially drafted and/or accumulated along the way. Then you are strong at all positions and are ready to wreak havoc for 3-6 years.

I'm never willing to punt a year on purpose. I think that's ludicrous. It defeats the whole purpose of competing. It's also a year without a banner, which makes F&L cry.

I am, but not in an inaugural season. That's silly. I inherited a garbage dynasty team 2 seasons ago and sold off all older pieces of value, dumped the rest, and then began to build my team. I had zero chance at competing last season regardless and my team's better off now because of it. There are only two players remaining from the team I inherited 21 months ago - Charles Tillman and Lwarence Timmons. Willie Parker, Joey Galloway, Keith Brooking, Zach Thomas, Lee Evans, LenDale White, Marc Bulger, and Patrick Crayton are all doing nothing elsewhere and that's some of the best my team had to offer. The only player I moved that I should not have was Heath Miller, although he was a big part in me acquiring Welker. My team is now 5-5, 5th in total points and features Carson Palmer (bought while hurt last year)Chad Henne Chris Johnson (part of the Parker deal)Knowshon MorenoJustin Forsett Sidney Rice (cost a draft pick downgrade and Crayton)Mike Sims-Walker (throw-in on deal sending Zach Miller and Bulger elsewhere)Nate Burleson (plucked off waivers after getting roster bubbled by another owner during the offseason)Percy HarvinMike WallaceDustin Keller (also part of Sims-Walker deal)Good but not great IDP's - I won't go into details here since it is not applicable to most of youI've also since acquired and sold Orton (before hurting his ankle in 08), Welker, Royal, and Pierre Thomas. I've now got a decent core, have 5 of the first 25 picks next season, and an extra 1st rounder in each of the 011 and 012 drafts.My long winded point being, there is a time to give up on this season before it starts, it depends on how bad the roster is.

finally a "here is my team" post that is thoughtful and worthwhile not like LOOK AT MY TEAM?

Glad that's how it was interpreted. I should fully disclose, there are a series of misses I've had too, but that's how it should be on a rebuilding dynasty team. The goal should be to acquire guys currently buried that could be great but have an equal or greater chance of being nothing, really that's how it should be on all teams but especially ones focused more on the future than the now. I hit on guys like Burleson, Sims-Walker, Rice, among others but also missed on guys like Brady Quinn, Jerome Harrison, Miles Austin (victim to my roster bubble), Josh Morgan, Domenik Hixon, and many more. I say 'miss' because I held onto these guys instead of trading for Brent Celek, Cedric Benson, Miles Austin, and I'm sure others.I just can't wait until next season when I should finally have a roster that can compete for the playoffs! Something rewarding knowing this team was built from ruins.

 

[SSOG]

Your Mewelde Moore comparison is a poor one. Moore has played for 3 NFL head coaches. Williams has played only for Fox, who has consistently mismanaged his RBs.

Which explains why it's a very small red flag instead of a full-blown red flag. Regardless of how teensy tiny you think that red flag might be because of how stupid John Fox and his entire coaching staff is, it's still a miniscule, microscopic, sub-atomic red flag that Stewart simply does not possess.

Smith carried the Carolina offense in 2005. I don't think that really carries a lot of weight in 2009.

It does to me, since my eyes tell me he's the same guy. Besides, Smiff didn't just carry the offense in 2005... he also carried it in 2006 (led the team in yards from scrimmage), and again in 2007 (led the team in yards from scrimmage), and oh yeah, he also had more yards per game than DeAngelo Williams LAST SEASON.

Call me crazy, but I think they should be trying their best to win every game on their schedule. The way to do that is to give the most touches to their best player. It's not like they need to see what they have in Stewart before his contract expires, or something like that... they know he is good. In fact, one could argue that, knowing that, they should strive to keep his touches down this year and next year to minimize wear and tear and risk of injury and maximize his effectiveness when he presumably takes over in 2011.

Okay, crazy. You said it yourself- they know Stewart is good. It's not like giving carries to Jonathan Stewart is waiving a white flag and flushing the season down the drain, here. And I'd think they'd be more concerned about getting Stewart more NFL experience than saving him from the "pounding" of a 170 carry season (which is what he's on pace for).Seriously, Stewart is on pace for 170 carries, which is hardly out of line for such an awesome RB2. DeAngelo is on pace for 290 carries... sure, they could possibly bump that up, but what's the point of giving your "best player" 370 carries in what's essentially a lost season? Realistically, they could probably be giving him 320 carries this season without any big concern, so you're basically crying over what amounts to 2 carries per game. Either you think that the Panthers should give DeAngelo 2 more carries per game, or else you think they should give him an obscene workload and blow him out over a lost season.You really think those two extra carries per game would make THAT dramatic a difference, here? It's two carries a game.

 

[Tau837]

Call me crazy, but I think they should be trying their best to win every game on their schedule. The way to do that is to give the most touches to their best player. It's not like they need to see what they have in Stewart before his contract expires, or something like that... they know he is good. In fact, one could argue that, knowing that, they should strive to keep his touches down this year and next year to minimize wear and tear and risk of injury and maximize his effectiveness when he presumably takes over in 2011.

Okay, crazy. You said it yourself- they know Stewart is good. It's not like giving carries to Jonathan Stewart is waiving a white flag and flushing the season down the drain, here. And I'd think they'd be more concerned about getting Stewart more NFL experience than saving him from the "pounding" of a 170 carry season (which is what he's on pace for).Seriously, Stewart is on pace for 170 carries, which is hardly out of line for such an awesome RB2. DeAngelo is on pace for 290 carries... sure, they could possibly bump that up, but what's the point of giving your "best player" 370 carries in what's essentially a lost season? Realistically, they could probably be giving him 320 carries this season without any big concern, so you're basically crying over what amounts to 2 carries per game. Either you think that the Panthers should give DeAngelo 2 more carries per game, or else you think they should give him an obscene workload and blow him out over a lost season.You really think those two extra carries per game would make THAT dramatic a difference, here? It's two carries a game.

No. Go back to my post that started this whole exchange. I think (a) Williams should have 15+ carries every game and (b) Williams should have at least a few more carries than Stewart every game. Why? Because he is better, and thus giving him a greater share of the carries improves Carolina's chance of winning. My post that started this exchange highlighted the fact that it was inexcusable for Williams to get only 13 carries when he averaged more than 9 ypc... and inexcusable that Stewart got the same number of carries when he averaged about 4 ypc.That said, I'm going to stop this now. I didn't intend to hijack this dynasty thread with this debate. And I know from experience that you and I could continue this for a long time. So I'll just agree to disagree with you.

 

[editor47]

OK, so you think Williams does not have some skills, or at least to the same degree, that Stewart has. Are you saying the reverse is not also true? That is, do you not agree that Stewart does not have some skills, or at least to the same degree, that Williams has?

Like I said, DeAngelo has some wicked tools at his disposal. He just doesn't have as many NFL-caliber tools as Stewart. To make up some oversimplified examples... say there are 4 "tools" that an RB needs to succeed. Stewart will score a 6/10 or higher in all four categories. Williams might have a 10/10 in two of the categories, but he only has a 3/10 and 4/10 in the other two. So yes, he is absolutely and unequivocally better in some respects than Stewart, but I think Stewart has a broader and more robust skillset at his disposal.

IMO it's hard to use what Fox has done as justification for anything. He has mismanaged the Carolina RB situation consistently in his tenure. He has obviously botched the QB situation. I'm sure Carolina homers could chime in with some other issues. Case in point is that it was obviously wrong of Fox not to use Williams much more extensively in his first two seasons... and now, IMO, he is giving carries to Stewart that should go to Williams, so the mismanagement continues.

But the fact that he continues to "mismanage" and err on the side of giving Williams too few carries is telling. It's like Mewelde Moore- every coach he played for gave him fewer carries than NFL fans thought he deserved. Eventually, you have to assume that the coaches (who, it should be noted, see MUCH more of Williams than you or I ever do) believe, for one reason or another, that Williams shouldn't be getting more carries. One possible explanation is that the coaches are all morons and are all wrong. Another explanation is that the coaches know more than we do, and Williams isn't built to be a workhorse for one reason or another. Again, this isn't meant as a major criticism of Williams, who I have ranked as an easy top-10 dynasty RB, but it's definitely a red flag, however tiny of one it might be, and it's a red flag that Stewart doesn't possess. The only "error" the coaches have made on Stewart's behalf is getting him TOO MANY carries (at least in your opinion).You asked why I thought that Stewart was better suited to being a workhorse than Williams, and whether you think the coaching staff are all idiots or not, the fact that they have habitually given Williams fewer carries than he deserves in all situations, and have (in your opinion) given Stewart MORE carries than he deserves in all situations, is a factor in that opinion.

This was already addressed. I didn't say it was causation. But it is fact. And the bolded is really where we disagree. IMO Williams is their best player, followed by Smith. And with Williams under contract through next season, there is no compelling need to get Stewart more touches now just because he "factors more prominently in the team's long term plans." They have plenty of time for that if and when Williams is gone, gets hurt, or loses effectiveness. None of those things are true right now, so it is perfectly reasonable for them to give Williams the majority of touches and hold Stewart in a more minor role for now.

As soon as Williams carries an entire offense on his shoulders, I'll call him a better talent than Smiff. In the mean time, Smitty's #1.Also, what is Carolina going to do this season? Realistically, what is the most they can hope to accomplish? This team is going nowhere this year, so why on earth shouldn't they give Stewart a bigger role if he's the guy who figures more prominently in their long-term plans?

by your own ranking stewart scores 24/40 and williams a 26 or 27/40. i don't know. that sounds like williams the more complete back. i think i'd rather have a guy who is a superior talent in two out of four tools than slightly above average in all four.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

My long winded point being, there is a time to give up on this season before it starts, it depends on how bad the roster is.

I thought it went without saying that inheriting someone else's junk-filled roster is an exception to the rule.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value.

Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Wrong. It's not a question of absolute dynasty value; it's a cost-benefit analysis. In this case, the benefit is that he likely wins his league (if you assume that Ricky will be a top 5 back down the stretch which I believe he will). The cost is a future prospect, but in this case he has a NUMBER of good young prospects.I said it repeatedly, but in THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, if you can trade Green for Ricky I would do it.

Don't make this trade under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE...........Classic sell high. Ricky will not sustain last nights performance thru the rest of the year.

Alright, you need to quit littering this thread with bad information.Of course Ricky won't get three TDs per game. But he's a legit RB1 the rest of the way. If you're into actually winning championships as opposed to simply building the prettiest roster possible on paper, you may be interested in acquiring a late-season difference maker.

That being said, the Week 15-16 playoff run is a crap shoot. Dynasty playoffs need to run concurrent with NFL playoffs, but that's another tangent altogether.

 

[Rodeojones]

F/L. Interested in hearing your reasoning behind the low ranking for Brandon Marshall. As of Nov 11, you have him at #19.

Thanks.

 

[djmich]

F/L. Interested in hearing your reasoning behind the low ranking for Brandon Marshall. As of Nov 11, you have him at #19. Thanks.

High Knucklehead Factor

 

[Deuceman]

This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value.

Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Wrong. It's not a question of absolute dynasty value; it's a cost-benefit analysis. In this case, the benefit is that he likely wins his league (if you assume that Ricky will be a top 5 back down the stretch which I believe he will). The cost is a future prospect, but in this case he has a NUMBER of good young prospects.I said it repeatedly, but in THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, if you can trade Green for Ricky I would do it.

Don't make this trade under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE...........Classic sell high. Ricky will not sustain last nights performance thru the rest of the year.

Alright, you need to quit littering this thread with bad information.Of course Ricky won't get three TDs per game. But he's a legit RB1 the rest of the way. If you're into actually winning championships as opposed to simply building the prettiest roster possible on paper, you may be interested in acquiring a late-season difference maker.

That being said, the Week 15-16 playoff run is a crap shoot. Dynasty playoffs need to run concurrent with NFL playoffs, but that's another tangent altogether.

How is that bad info? Of course I don't see Ricky scoring 3 TDs per for the rest of the season. My point is even if he does perform at RB1 level thru the end of the season he is not worth a top 6-7 rookie pick which is what Greene and Brown are. If I was offered Greene or Brown in my dynasty for Ricky I will take it all day and I'm sure u would too. Having Ricky does not guarantee a banner this year, having Brown or Greene does not either but I would rather have the potential of those 2 for the next 5-6 years vs 5 more games of Ricky.

 

[s&m]

In trying to evaluate some end of bench carryover players for next season, I'm looking at several players and their situation, what are your thoughts and rankings on these players. Who has upside vs oppurtunity, talent vs situation, who are the best chance at fantasy revelence and value in the next 18-24 months in your opinion? I am torn due to not having seen all these players actually play and having to go with my gut and what I've read. Personally I think one of the NYG players should be gold and I like the situation in Houston for Moats and in Miami for Hillard.

Leron McClain

Danny Ware

Andre Brown

Ryan Moats

Rashard Jennings

Lex Hilliard

I would love any reasons why I should like a couple of these guys to carry over for a chance at fantasy value next year and beyond, thanks

 

[thatguy]

This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value.

Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Wrong. It's not a question of absolute dynasty value; it's a cost-benefit analysis. In this case, the benefit is that he likely wins his league (if you assume that Ricky will be a top 5 back down the stretch which I believe he will). The cost is a future prospect, but in this case he has a NUMBER of good young prospects.I said it repeatedly, but in THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, if you can trade Green for Ricky I would do it.

Don't make this trade under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE...........Classic sell high. Ricky will not sustain last nights performance thru the rest of the year.

Alright, you need to quit littering this thread with bad information.Of course Ricky won't get three TDs per game. But he's a legit RB1 the rest of the way. If you're into actually winning championships as opposed to simply building the prettiest roster possible on paper, you may be interested in acquiring a late-season difference maker.

That being said, the Week 15-16 playoff run is a crap shoot. Dynasty playoffs need to run concurrent with NFL playoffs, but that's another tangent altogether.

Wow, really? He's saying more or less the same thing as others have said (SSOG, EBF). And he's not giving out any information that isn't true. The information he's giving out: Ricky will not continue to rush for 100 yards and score 3 TD's per game. This is obvious to all of us, and that's really all he's saying. Everything else he is saying is opinion. He doesn't believe the trade should be made, he believes Ricky is a classic sell high. I was under the impression you welcomed dissenting opinions in this thread.Beyond that, I'd like to hear more about your last sentence. Your dynasty league's playoffs run concurrent to the NFL playoffs? Pray tell how you have this set up and how successful it has been... It's definitely an interesting tangent that I'd love to hear more about.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value.

Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Wrong. It's not a question of absolute dynasty value; it's a cost-benefit analysis. In this case, the benefit is that he likely wins his league (if you assume that Ricky will be a top 5 back down the stretch which I believe he will). The cost is a future prospect, but in this case he has a NUMBER of good young prospects.I said it repeatedly, but in THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, if you can trade Green for Ricky I would do it.

Don't make this trade under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE...........Classic sell high. Ricky will not sustain last nights performance thru the rest of the year.

Alright, you need to quit littering this thread with bad information.Of course Ricky won't get three TDs per game. But he's a legit RB1 the rest of the way. If you're into actually winning championships as opposed to simply building the prettiest roster possible on paper, you may be interested in acquiring a late-season difference maker.

That being said, the Week 15-16 playoff run is a crap shoot. Dynasty playoffs need to run concurrent with NFL playoffs, but that's another tangent altogether.

I would trade Greene for Ricky if I had a good shot at the Championship this season. But that's because I think Greene is vastly overrated here. I think his ceiling is comparable to Rudi Johnson and I think a Championship is worth more than that. I wouldn't do that with Brown because I think his ceiling is much higher.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value.

Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Wrong. It's not a question of absolute dynasty value; it's a cost-benefit analysis. In this case, the benefit is that he likely wins his league (if you assume that Ricky will be a top 5 back down the stretch which I believe he will). The cost is a future prospect, but in this case he has a NUMBER of good young prospects.I said it repeatedly, but in THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, if you can trade Green for Ricky I would do it.

Don't make this trade under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE...........Classic sell high. Ricky will not sustain last nights performance thru the rest of the year.

Alright, you need to quit littering this thread with bad information.Of course Ricky won't get three TDs per game. But he's a legit RB1 the rest of the way. If you're into actually winning championships as opposed to simply building the prettiest roster possible on paper, you may be interested in acquiring a late-season difference maker.

That being said, the Week 15-16 playoff run is a crap shoot. Dynasty playoffs need to run concurrent with NFL playoffs, but that's another tangent altogether.

Wow, really? He's saying more or less the same thing as others have said (SSOG, EBF). And he's not giving out any information that isn't true. The information he's giving out: Ricky will not continue to rush for 100 yards and score 3 TD's per game. This is obvious to all of us, and that's really all he's saying. Everything else he is saying is opinion. He doesn't believe the trade should be made, he believes Ricky is a classic sell high. I was under the impression you welcomed dissenting opinions in this thread.Beyond that, I'd like to hear more about your last sentence. Your dynasty league's playoffs run concurrent to the NFL playoffs? Pray tell how you have this set up and how successful it has been... It's definitely an interesting tangent that I'd love to hear more about.

That Ricky won't continue to rush for 100 yards and score 3 TDs per game is not really all he's saying. He's also saying that trading youth for a legit shot at a championship isn't worth it UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE. And I think that's weak sauce. I'm not into playing timidly when championships are on the line. I don't really need Ricky in any of my leagues, but if I thought I needed a lead-pipe RB1 the rest of the way to put me over the top he'd be the one target.

As far as playoff leagues, those are the only type I play in. We've discussed it in much detail earlier in the thread, so I won't get back on the soapbox. Here's a link to a playoff league screed from my blog that goes into deeper details.

We also started the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league with the owners comprised of people who follow and contribute to this thread . . . and that league uses the NFL playoffs as its playoffs. If you're interested, I'd be happy to put you on the list if/when another owner drops out.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

That Ricky won't continue to rush for 100 yards and score 3 TDs per game is not really all he's saying. He's also saying that trading youth for a legit shot at a championship isn't worth it UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE. And I think that's weak sauce. I'm not into playing timidly when championships are on the line.

I don't really need Ricky in any of my leagues, but if I thought I needed a lead-pipe RB1 the rest of the way to put me over the top he'd be the one target.

As far as playoff leagues, those are the only type I play in. We've discussed it in much detail earlier in the thread, so I won't get back on the soapbox. Here's a link to a playoff league screed from my blog that goes into deeper details.

We also started the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league with the owners comprised of people who follow and contribute to this thread . . . and that league uses the NFL playoffs as its playoffs. If you're interested, I'd be happy to put you on the list if/when another owner drops out.

I was lucky enough to get a spot in the FBG Dynasty league that F&L is referencing, and I love the format. It creates a completely different strategy, where you have to weigh the values of players based not only on talent, but also on that player's potential to make the post season and contribute to a playoff/championship run. Elevates the value of Reggie Wayne to a decisive level above Calvin Johnson (just a random example) - but you still have to factor in the 10 more years Calvin has to contribute to your future.

Obviously, being the first year we have not seen a post-season in the league yet, but I am looking forward to it - even if I wind up watching it and not patrticipating in it. Just a cool and different concept. That said, I am not sure I would go so far as to make it the format for all of my leagues. I think it is a nice deviation from the norm, and I am genuinely excited to be involved in it, but I still love me some traditional week 14-16 playoffs!

 

[Deuceman]

That Ricky won't continue to rush for 100 yards and score 3 TDs per game is not really all he's saying. He's also saying that trading youth for a legit shot at a championship isn't worth it UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE. And I think that's weak sauce. I'm not into playing timidly when championships are on the line.

I don't really need Ricky in any of my leagues, but if I thought I needed a lead-pipe RB1 the rest of the way to put me over the top he'd be the one target.

As far as playoff leagues, those are the only type I play in. We've discussed it in much detail earlier in the thread, so I won't get back on the soapbox. Here's a link to a playoff league screed from my blog that goes into deeper details.

We also started the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league with the owners comprised of people who follow and contribute to this thread . . . and that league uses the NFL playoffs as its playoffs. If you're interested, I'd be happy to put you on the list if/when another owner drops out.

I'm not against trading youth, I'm against trading top 6-7 type rookie youth for 5 game runs. If it were Moats/Snelling/Ringer types for Ricky, no problem.

 

[SayWhat?]

Easily my favorite thread on FBG, mostly because I love the differing opinions and analysis on every player under the sun in dynasty leagues. Also, F&L's thoughts are in line with mine 98% of the time, so it helps reaffirm what I'm thinking about numerous players.

That being said F&L, your take on Ricky Williams most definitely falls under the 2% where our thoughts don't jive. I don't care how close one thinks they are to winning a title this year, there's a better than not chance that Ricky Williams makes zero difference in whether or not your team has a title come year-end. For the purposes of a dynasty league, it would be foolish to move a player of Greene or Brown's calibur for someone who (a) more likely than not won't make the difference in whether or not you end with a title (b) could see his value plummet to zero, or in other words his pre-2009 value, with any sort of injury (c ) will likely revert to a RB3 production level next year as part of a RBBC.

I don't care how close you think you are to a title. Giving up a Greene or Brown (or any color for that matter ) for Ricky Williams is a poor decision unless you're getting another asset in return.

 

[jonboltz]

Easily my favorite thread on FBG, mostly because I love the differing opinions and analysis on every player under the sun in dynasty leagues. Also, F&L's thoughts are in line with mine 98% of the time, so it helps reaffirm what I'm thinking about numerous players.

That being said F&L, your take on Ricky Williams most definitely falls under the 2% where our thoughts don't jive. I don't care how close one thinks they are to winning a title this year, there's a better than not chance that Ricky Williams makes zero difference in whether or not your team has a title come year-end. For the purposes of a dynasty league, it would be foolish to move a player of Greene or Brown's calibur for someone who (a) more likely than not won't make the difference in whether or not you end with a title (b) could see his value plummet to zero, or in other words his pre-2009 value, with any sort of injury (c ) will likely revert to a RB3 production level next year as part of a RBBC.

I don't care how close you think you are to a title. Giving up a Greene or Brown (or any color for that matter ) for Ricky Williams is a poor decision unless you're getting another asset in return.

In leagues that have larger starting req's and/or flex spots, picking up RW could easily be a large boost to a team, enough to push someone over the top.

 

[ManningissGod]

F&L

20 team dynasty. Im 9-1 and im trying to win my 4th championship this year.

My Roster

Peyton Manning

Jonathan Stewart

Darren Sproles

Reggie Wayne

Vincent Jackson

Miles Austin

Steve Smith (NYG)

Dustin Keller

Alge Crumpler

Yes i know my team is very slim according to starters. But in my league, every team has their flaws. Mine is RB

I can get SJAX or Deangelo Williams RB/WR 1 pt. every 10 yds. 6 pts td.

I would have to give up Stewart, Reggie Wayne (or VJax) for Deangelo Williams (Or Steven Jackson) and Dwayne Bowe

I know Bowe is suspended. But i could roll out with Wayne (or Jackson, depending on who i trade), Miles Austin, and Steve Smith (NYG), and have my #1 RB, alongside with Sproles, who is 8th in my league due to return yardage.

Who should i go after? SJax or Williams.? What WR should i trade? Or should i stay put, and let my WR's take me far this year. Since Sproles and Stewart are still doing halfway decent. I just feel if i have a #1 RB, Alongside with my WR's Who all 4 are in the top 10. I feel i can win this year. Playoffs are weeks 12,13,14,15 I already have week 12 Bye on lock.

Opinions?

The trade would have to be in by tomorrow night.

 

[cstu]

As far as playoff leagues, those are the only type I play in. We've discussed it in much detail earlier in the thread, so I won't get back on the soapbox. Here's a link to a playoff league screed from my blog that goes into deeper details.

We also started the FB Guys Dynasty Thread league with the owners comprised of people who follow and contribute to this thread . . . and that league uses the NFL playoffs as its playoffs. If you're interested, I'd be happy to put you on the list if/when another owner drops out.

Not only does the format incorporate so much more strategy, it also ratchets up the competition level several notches while simultaneously removing a good portion of the luck factor inherent in week 14-16 playoffs (when you win a championship, you know you've really earned it).

I agree that it increases the amount of strategy needed, but I'm at a loss trying to understand why you say it removes a good portion of the luck factor. Given that the success of your team is dependent on who wins a playoff game (or does or doesn't get the bye) I think it drastically increases the luck factor. Interesting idea to say the least though and I would be against trying it.

 

[cstu]

Easily my favorite thread on FBG, mostly because I love the differing opinions and analysis on every player under the sun in dynasty leagues. Also, F&L's thoughts are in line with mine 98% of the time, so it helps reaffirm what I'm thinking about numerous players.

That being said F&L, your take on Ricky Williams most definitely falls under the 2% where our thoughts don't jive. I don't care how close one thinks they are to winning a title this year, there's a better than not chance that Ricky Williams makes zero difference in whether or not your team has a title come year-end. For the purposes of a dynasty league, it would be foolish to move a player of Greene or Brown's calibur for someone who (a) more likely than not won't make the difference in whether or not you end with a title (b) could see his value plummet to zero, or in other words his pre-2009 value, with any sort of injury (c ) will likely revert to a RB3 production level next year as part of a RBBC.

I don't care how close you think you are to a title. Giving up a Greene or Brown (or any color for that matter ) for Ricky Williams is a poor decision unless you're getting another asset in return.

I agree with not trading Greene straight up for Ricky, but you are also trading an unproven potential in Greene (though I really think he'll do well in that offense and behind that OL) for a proven guy who can help put you over the top. I think Ricky is easily worth a late 2nd/early 1st to a contending team and in fact I gave up a late 1st, S. Moss, and Greene for Ricky and Steve Smith (Giants).

 

[peter griffin]

Question for you guys out there, I'm in a dynasty league with TD passes counting for 6 points and 1 point per 20 yards passing (needless to say the scoring is a bit QB heavy). First three QB's are Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman. Not awful but not great either. I've had Leinart on my roster since the inception of the league in 2006 more for the circumstances surrounding him than any great belief in the talent he posesses. Kevin Kolb is on the waiver wire in my league, and I'm giving serious consideration to dropping Leinart for Kolb as I tinker with my roster as I run out the clock on a disappointing season. I would like some takes on this move. How does Kolb's upside compare to Leinart's? Will it take a change of scenery for Kolb to really get his chance?

 

[editor47]

Question for you guys out there, I'm in a dynasty league with TD passes counting for 6 points and 1 point per 20 yards passing (needless to say the scoring is a bit QB heavy). First three QB's are Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman. Not awful but not great either. I've had Leinart on my roster since the inception of the league in 2006 more for the circumstances surrounding him than any great belief in the talent he posesses. Kevin Kolb is on the waiver wire in my league, and I'm giving serious consideration to dropping Leinart for Kolb as I tinker with my roster as I run out the clock on a disappointing season. I would like some takes on this move. How does Kolb's upside compare to Leinart's? Will it take a change of scenery for Kolb to really get his chance?

i think there's about a 70 percent chance kolb starts in 2010 for the eagles. if andy reid is coaching and he's starting, he'll put up top 10 numbers. its just the nature of the system. at worst, he will be a starter in 11. but so will leinart, probably. this year was the first time we really saw what kolb could do with a full week of practice and it was solid. anyone else you could cut to have them both?

 

[peter griffin]

editor: here's the rest of my roster: PPR 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving. start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE. I guess I could cut one of my end of the bench wideouts but I like most of those guys in terms of upside and they are more likely to potentially develop into fantasy starters than Leinart or Kolb. Appreciate your input.

QB:

Cutler, Ryan, Freeman, Leinart

RB:

Rice, Jacobs, Moreno, McFadden, Greene, Betts, Choice

WR:

Desean Jackson, Bowe, Boldin, Holmes, Berrian, Bennett, Mike Thomas, Andre Caldwell, Avery

TE:

Daniels, Z. Miller (OAK), Boss

 

[editor47]

editor: here's the rest of my roster: PPR 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving. start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE. I guess I could cut one of my end of the bench wideouts but I like most of those guys in terms of upside and they are more likely to potentially develop into fantasy starters than Leinart or Kolb. Appreciate your input. QB: Cutler, Ryan, Freeman, LeinartRB: Rice, Jacobs, Moreno, McFadden, Greene, Betts, ChoiceWResean Jackson, Bowe, Boldin, Holmes, Berrian, Bennett, Mike Thomas, Andre Caldwell, AveryTEaniels, Z. Miller (OAK), Boss

make a trade then. two of your WRs for one a little better. or a WR and a TE. or trade leinart to the warner owner.

 

[new-guru]

I am yet to make any offers. Wow I thoroughly enjoyed the read.

This thread is the best. F&L I think highly of your website.

I have started to feel the guy out and I think he is Stuborn enough to only want to trade for Moreno. Which is off limits since I traded J. Lewis and Addai for K. Moreno and S. Greene before week 1

Thanks to all that replied this site is AMAZING

 

[ManningissGod]

anyone on advice with the SJAX Williams deal?

 

[ookook]

I like Greene fine, but I like Williams lots more than most.

I agree totally with F&L, if I were going into the playoffs and weak at RB, I would make the trade. Sure, I would try to get a late 2010 2nd round pick thrown in, but let us not forget that Williams will play next year and has played well. My only caveat is the teh RBBC nature his role might be. But if he were in Cleveland or something he would turn out good numbers.

So the issue for me is not talent or age, but situation.

But will Greene EVER be a feature back either? Not sure, as Washington was impressing before the injury. And, if I were the Jets, I would re-sign Jones (not that they will).

 

[EBF]

I like Greene fine, but I like Williams lots more than most. I agree totally with F&L, if I were going into the playoffs and weak at RB, I would make the trade. Sure, I would try to get a late 2010 2nd round pick thrown in, but let us not forget that Williams will play next year and has played well. My only caveat is the teh RBBC nature his role might be. But if he were in Cleveland or something he would turn out good numbers.So the issue for me is not talent or age, but situation.But will Greene EVER be a feature back either? Not sure, as Washington was impressing before the injury. And, if I were the Jets, I would re-sign Jones (not that they will).

Ricky is 32. He will have ZERO trade value once the season ends and his practical value will be minimal next season and beyond. No one knows what kind of player Greene will become. He could be the next Kenny Irons or Brandon Jackson. He could be the next Frank Gore or Ray Rice. Either way, I don't believe in giving up this type of prospect for someone who will be worthless in a month. It's incredibly short-sighted and incongruent with the dynasty format. You can call it playing to win now. I call it playing to lose tomorrow...and the next year...and the next year. You make deals like this and your team will suffer the consequences long term. People act like there's some special significance to winning RIGHT NOW, but in reality winning next year is just as important. All that matters is the overall value. FWIW, I know this thread isn't about Greene, but I think he's the type of player you should be BUYING and not SELLING in dynasty leagues. He appears to have all the talent needed to become a top 10-15 type RB. If this thread offers any indication then he's undervalued right now and I'll be looking to snap him up in many leagues this offseason.

 

[editor47]

I like Greene fine, but I like Williams lots more than most. I agree totally with F&L, if I were going into the playoffs and weak at RB, I would make the trade. Sure, I would try to get a late 2010 2nd round pick thrown in, but let us not forget that Williams will play next year and has played well. My only caveat is the teh RBBC nature his role might be. But if he were in Cleveland or something he would turn out good numbers.So the issue for me is not talent or age, but situation.But will Greene EVER be a feature back either? Not sure, as Washington was impressing before the injury. And, if I were the Jets, I would re-sign Jones (not that they will).

Ricky is 32. He will have ZERO trade value once the season ends and his practical value will be minimal next season and beyond. No one knows what kind of player Greene will become. He could be the next Kenny Irons or Brandon Jackson. He could be the next Frank Gore or Ray Rice. Either way, I don't believe in giving up this type of prospect for someone who will be worthless in a month. It's incredibly short-sighted and incongruent with the dynasty format. You can call it playing to win now. I call it playing to lose tomorrow...and the next year...and the next year. You make deals like this and your team will suffer the consequences long term. People act like there's some special significance to winning RIGHT NOW, but in reality winning next year is just as important. All that matters is the overall value. FWIW, I know this thread isn't about Greene, but I think he's the type of player you should be BUYING and not SELLING in dynasty leagues. He appears to have all the talent needed to become a top 10-15 type RB. If this thread offers any indication then he's undervalued right now and I'll be looking to snap him up in many leagues this offseason.

I can't wait to come back into this thread in 2 years and wonder where Greene is even playing. Who cares what Ricky Williams' trade value is in 2010. You are making the trade for the rest of the 2009 season and because you think you can win. The significance to winning now is if I win now, i can win next year. If I wait to win next year, I can't go back in time to win this year. Also, I'm alive now. The league is alive. There is a small chance neither will be true in 2010. Again, trading Shonn Greene is not going to cost you numerous championships. There will be another Shonn Greene in the 2010 draft.

 

[BespokeJort]

I like Greene fine, but I like Williams lots more than most. I agree totally with F&L, if I were going into the playoffs and weak at RB, I would make the trade. Sure, I would try to get a late 2010 2nd round pick thrown in, but let us not forget that Williams will play next year and has played well. My only caveat is the teh RBBC nature his role might be. But if he were in Cleveland or something he would turn out good numbers.So the issue for me is not talent or age, but situation.But will Greene EVER be a feature back either? Not sure, as Washington was impressing before the injury. And, if I were the Jets, I would re-sign Jones (not that they will).

Ricky is 32. He will have ZERO trade value once the season ends and his practical value will be minimal next season and beyond. No one knows what kind of player Greene will become. He could be the next Kenny Irons or Brandon Jackson. He could be the next Frank Gore or Ray Rice. Either way, I don't believe in giving up this type of prospect for someone who will be worthless in a month. It's incredibly short-sighted and incongruent with the dynasty format. You can call it playing to win now. I call it playing to lose tomorrow...and the next year...and the next year. You make deals like this and your team will suffer the consequences long term. People act like there's some special significance to winning RIGHT NOW, but in reality winning next year is just as important. All that matters is the overall value. FWIW, I know this thread isn't about Greene, but I think he's the type of player you should be BUYING and not SELLING in dynasty leagues. He appears to have all the talent needed to become a top 10-15 type RB. If this thread offers any indication then he's undervalued right now and I'll be looking to snap him up in many leagues this offseason.

So I know F&L hates these types of questions, but I feel like it is relevant in this case: in the minds of those who wouldn't make this trade, what level of prospect WOULD you trade for Ricky Williams? Assuming you were a contender riding with a shaky starter at one RB slot (or lost ronnie brown, or something of the sort)? Not necessarily a "what guy would you trade" specifically, but are there any guys who you have ranked above him that you'd trade for him? Or is this POV just a 'not gonna trade anyone with future value for a guy with no future value' angle?

 

[Tick]

F&L, what is your thinking on having LT just above Thomas Jones?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

People act like there's some special significance to winning RIGHT NOW, but in reality winning next year is just as important.

You're familiar with the concepts of 1) uncertainty, 2) time value of money. Right? Your statement above doesn't even require a lengthy response to refute.

All that matters is the overall value.

Sure, value matters the most. But I wouldn't say that it is ALL that matters. That seems like too narrow of a statement.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

I like Greene fine, but I like Williams lots more than most.

I agree totally with F&L, if I were going into the playoffs and weak at RB, I would make the trade. Sure, I would try to get a late 2010 2nd round pick thrown in, but let us not forget that Williams will play next year and has played well. My only caveat is the teh RBBC nature his role might be. But if he were in Cleveland or something he would turn out good numbers.

So the issue for me is not talent or age, but situation.

But will Greene EVER be a feature back either? Not sure, as Washington was impressing before the injury. And, if I were the Jets, I would re-sign Jones (not that they will).

Ricky is 32. He will have ZERO trade value once the season ends and his practical value will be minimal next season and beyond. No one knows what kind of player Greene will become. He could be the next Kenny Irons or Brandon Jackson. He could be the next Frank Gore or Ray Rice. Either way, I don't believe in giving up this type of prospect for someone who will be worthless in a month. It's incredibly short-sighted and incongruent with the dynasty format. You can call it playing to win now. I call it playing to lose tomorrow...and the next year...and the next year. You make deals like this and your team will suffer the consequences long term. People act like there's some special significance to winning RIGHT NOW, but in reality winning next year is just as important. All that matters is the overall value.

FWIW, I know this thread isn't about Greene, but I think he's the type of player you should be BUYING and not SELLING in dynasty leagues. He appears to have all the talent needed to become a top 10-15 type RB. If this thread offers any indication then he's undervalued right now and I'll be looking to snap him up in many leagues this offseason.

I can't wait to come back into this thread in 2 years and wonder where Greene is even playing. Who cares what Ricky Williams' trade value is in 2010. You are making the trade for the rest of the 2009 season and because you think you can win. The significance to winning now is if I win now, i can win next year. If I wait to win next year, I can't go back in time to win this year. Also, I'm alive now. The league is alive. There is a small chance neither will be true in 2010.

Again, trading Shonn Greene is not going to cost you numerous championships. There will be another Shonn Greene in the 2010 draft.

(1) If youve sold players who are expected to have more value next season than this season for players who have more value this season than next season, then your chances of winning next season should be lower. (2) In general terms, Williams does not guarantee a championship this year any more than Greene helps in future years. (3) If you win this year, you shouldnt have a shot at the 2010 Greene.I think there is a small percentage of teams for whom a Greene for Williams trade makes sense. You would need to have a shot at the playoffs, a weak enough RB2 or flex starter to make Williams a notable upgrade, and enough young, unproven RB depth that the loss of Greene wont hurt much.

 

[mikel2014]

My team in a 16-team PPR league:

QB Philip Rivers

RB Ryan Grant

RB Kevin Smith

RB/WR Nate Burleson

WR Randy Moss

WR Michael Crabtree

TE Jason Witten

K Lawrence Tynes

DEF Miami

Bench Matthew Stafford

Bench Reggie Bush

Bench Danny Ware

Bench Donnie Avery

Bench Santana Moss

Bench Mike Thomas

Bench Jared Cook

I've been offered Steve Slaton and 1st Round (the team is 3-7 and in 14th currently. I expect the pick to be top 4 next year) for Ryan Grant, Nate Burleson, and Matt Stafford. I'm leaning towards accepting the deal. I'm concerned that the potential dropoff between Grant and Slaton could hurt me for the remainder of the season. I'm 5-5 and making a playoff push. What do you guys think about Slaton vs Grant going forward this year as well as the future?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Easily my favorite thread on FBG, mostly because I love the differing opinions and analysis on every player under the sun in dynasty leagues. Also, F&L's thoughts are in line with mine 98% of the time, so it helps reaffirm what I'm thinking about numerous players.

That being said F&L, your take on Ricky Williams most definitely falls under the 2% where our thoughts don't jive. I don't care how close one thinks they are to winning a title this year, there's a better than not chance that Ricky Williams makes zero difference in whether or not your team has a title come year-end. For the purposes of a dynasty league, it would be foolish to move a player of Greene or Brown's calibur for someone who (a) more likely than not won't make the difference in whether or not you end with a title (b) could see his value plummet to zero, or in other words his pre-2009 value, with any sort of injury (c ) will likely revert to a RB3 production level next year as part of a RBBC.

I don't care how close you think you are to a title. Giving up a Greene or Brown (or any color for that matter ) for Ricky Williams is a poor decision unless you're getting another asset in return.

I like winning.

Edit to add: And I totally disagree with the bolded. I could easily see Ricky being among the contenders for fantasy playoff MVP in Weeks 14-16. I don't think you understand the level Ricky is playing at right now.

Again, my problem with the original statement was that the trade shouldn't be considered UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. If I have, say, Chris Johnson and another young RB -- say Knowshon Moreno or Beanie Wells -- it absolutely makes sense go for the title instead of sitting on my hands.