This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
How is this situation any different than Chris Johnson coming into this year? LenDale had 200 touches and 15 TDs last year. Eventually they figured out "put the best player on the field." Baltimore seems to have already figured out the same thing with Rice vs. other backs.
It's not, but then again it's also not any different than Tiki Barber, Fred Taylor, Charlie Garner, Warrick Dunn, Garrison Hearst, Willie Parker, and many more. All of these players consistently posted great yardage, but lacked touchdown production in most seasons. Sometimes, teams have a great short yardage player that they continuously opt to use at the goal line despite having a star running back on the team. It worked out well in Chris Johnson's case. That's great, but not at all the norm. Generally, when a running back is viewed as a player who struggles at the goal line and/or has a true goal line back sharing the backfield with him, that player does not see elite level touchdown production on a regular basis. This does not change their actual NFL value, but it certainly changes their fantasy value.Also, please note that I said that I believe Ray Rice will have a fantastic year next season. I just think there is enough cause for concern with the questionable goal line situation that he is currently being valued too highly by many people (admittedly this is from a non ppr standpoint, as that probably does change the equation). He is not Chris Johnson, capable of routinely breaking long touchdown runs, so he will NEED those goal line touches to achieve elite level touchdown production. Am I definitively saying he will not receive them? Absolutely not. I am just stating that right now, he does not routinely get them and he will have at least Le'Ron McClain on the roster next year capable of vulturing them, if not McClain AND McGahee, making it a potential hindrance to his ability to ascend to the elite stud level.
Meh, he would've gotten pushed out of bounds after another yard or two had he kept running.It's funny that Johnson was mentioned here, as Johnson's willingness to cut the ball back inside in those situations is a big part of what makes him so valuable. As great as I think Steven Jackson is, it's maddening to see him get so many 30-40 yard runs that could have been 60-70 yard runs because once he gets downfield he just lets himself get pushed out of bounds.
I wouldn't be surprised if they do use McClain some as a vulture, but Rice has proven this year that he is in fact a capable goal line back. He isn't just a scat back. Also, in PPR leagues it doesn't even matter. He is golden.
If you could acquire him for a late second or third round rookie pick I would do it. I think he will get a chance to compete somewhere next year, although it will probably be a bad team, which limits his upside.
Now paging Detroit....
Yeah, it's funny how perceptions change. In college he was a between the tackles bellcow runner and never caught passes. If you look at Tiki as a comparison, his TD totals as a starter were 9, 4, 11, 3, 15, 11, 5. Inconsistent, but an average of 8 a year which is solid. Rice has 8 this year even with McGahee stealing so many early on.
I suppose it's all subjective. However, it's not only that Reggie decided to cutback that bothers me, it's that he does it so slowly. Guys like Chris Johnson make sudden shifts while maintaining speed, but Reggie always comes to a near full stop. As a fan, you just know the play is dead when he slows down.
Exactly. So, what would you offer for Kevin Smith's production for one year? I don't think McGahee has alot of years left in the tank.
I think that's a legitimate point and I also think the comparison to Tiki is a really good one. The thing is that Tiki was a regular top 5 back in PPR leagues no matter what and a top 10 in regular leagues. I don't think TO is much of a threat anymore and to be honest I doubt many teams will be interested in him. I didn't know Bowe was a FA but I am not so high on him. Boldin would be the one guy who would command alot of looks. The thing is that having a good WR may cut down on Rice's receptions but it could increase his TD opportunities because the offense as a whole would be more productive and on the field more and in the red zone more. Having a really good WR would be good I think and I am not sure the comparison to Westbrook, McNabb and TO is a good one because Flacco is not going to throw as much as McNabb and the Ravens are not going to become an Eagles offense, which prefers to pass. It might become a team like the Giants though when they acquired Plax and I don't think Plax ever hurt Tiki's production.
I think Bowe would be a great fit for the Ravens. He would give them a physical presence and #1 target that Flacco desperately needs. Having a true #1 WR would only open things up for Rice - it's not a bad thing to add another playmaker on the field offensively as it will only decrease defensive attention on the running game.
Interesting, Bowe is a guy I'll be watching carefully this off-season, and I'm considering making early offers for. Dude has sick talent...just sick. Terrific hands, and plays hard. He's made some of the most impressive WR catches in the NFL over the last two years, but you never see them or hear of them because he plays for the lowly Chiefs. Imagine what he might do on a real team with at least one other viable weapon, NOT playing from 10+ points behind by halftime EVERY game.
Bowe is not a FA. He still has 2 years left on his rookie contract. But Haley never seemed to like him. And if Haley already didn't like him, PED suspensions aren't going to endear him. He's a good candidate to be moved.
Haley didn't like his initial efforts during training camp and preseason, but that was several months ago. Haley's recent comments about how impressed he was with Bowe staying in shape and how happy he is to have one of their best players back would seem to indicate that Haley might have changed his mind. Back to the point, I agree that the greatest threat to Rice is a better receiver. Watching them, it seems like a lot of Rice's receptions come on checkdowns, rather than designed plays, after Flacco's looked out for the 100th time and realized that no one is open.
So pretty much all this talk about Bowe is non-sense. If the guy is not even a restricted FA the odds of him being moved are slim--there just are not that many trades in the NFL and I doubt that many other teams are going to open the bank to get a guy who just got off suspension for violating the performance enhancement drug policy.
Cam Cameron loves to keep the RB involved. A WR will help the offense in general but it doesn't necessarily mean that Rice will be less involved.
But a true #1WR would also help to keep the chains moving and create longer drives and also create some space in the open field for Rice.
No. He signed a six-year, $65 million extension on 10/31/08.
Thanks. Of course simply clicking on his name would have shown me that...d'oh...
Brown being one spot ahead of Addai is that in large part due to the contract status of both and Addai being 4 years his senior?
Like some others that post in this thread, I was not high on Turner coming into this year and am not high on his dynasty prospects because of the Curse of 370 and his age. I would sell him, but not sure what he can command. Find that owner that thinks the injury is a fluke and that he'll back at 100% next year. But I think a lot of owners will wait to buy until it's clear that he's healthy. Might be best to shop him in the off-season (injury forgotten) when a team is determined to find a #1 RB and is willing to trade WRs or QBs to get that back.
I agree with you that the injury effects his trade value today but I think most dynasty owners would be aware that a high ankle sprain shouldn't be an issue next season. Curse of 370? Age? Sure... those might be reasons to sell. Trading reopens after the Superbowl so I can't trade him right now anyway. Thoughts?
I don't think he's a long-term asset, so I would be shopping him in the off-season. I'd point to his 2008 stats and remind owners that he was hurt (but not seriously), Ryan was hurt, and the Falcons played a tough schedule. Next year should be more like 2008 ... but you really need help at WR, so that's the only reason you'd consider trading him. Who to target? In the off-season, I am less worried about filling a specific need, and more interested in accumulating talent. Sure, it would be nice to trade to fill a need, but it's not critical. Find the best offer, even if it doesn't fit your needs. Then spend the rest of the off-season moving that talent to fill your perceived needs.If you look back 2-10 pages, I think you'll see some good lists of buy lows. Names I'd consider in general (not necessarily for Turner): Ben, Flacco, Ryan, Jennings, Witten, Stewart.
Interesting, actually. You may be right.
I like Minnesota to pick up a replacement for Chet this offseason. Either a rook speedster like Best or Spiller or an adequate FA backup that can take some of the short-yardage pounding off Peterson (like McGahee or Larry).
I like Turner to be a low end RB1 for the next two years so I wouldn't mind targeting him. Would Turner owners consider a late first round pick for him this off season before rookie draft? Would that at least be a respectable opening bid? I am in playoffs so my pick will be 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, or 1.12
This isn't a very good offer IMO. Turner is worth a top 3 pick I would think, possibly more.
I was thinking--coming off an injury and a bad year and he isn't exactly young.
He's a top 15 dynasty back, IMO. Not the time to sell low, and I wouldn't accept less than a top 2 (and maybe 3 if things shake out right between now and after the draft). Remember, this is also a class without any can't miss studs. Two likely solid picks, and 3 or 4 more with good potential. I'd trade Turner for Dwyer or Bryant and maybe Matthews and that's only 'cause on my roster I have other good backs with little to no dropoff in production to my starting lineup. If I were dependant on Turner, I'd have to have a top 3 pick + a prospect or minor upgrade.
You can try it but I'd reject without a 2nd thought. If you could add another piece to the puzzle, like a decent WR or something, then it would get closer. But even coming off a poor year he's worth more than a late 1st rounder by a decent clip. I usually try and pinpoint what a team's needs are and see if I can put together a package...
For comparison, earlier this year I traded Turner and Eli for Jonathan Stewart and Tony Romo. And that was after he started the season slow, before he started ripping off 100-yard games.He's recovering from an ankle sprain--so not something that he needs to rehab or threatens his perforamance in 2010. He's the workhorse on a balanced offense that had a strong set of games before his injury. He likely has 2-3 years left of excellent-to-good production. That's far superior to a late first rounder that could crap out. I've said it before, I'll say it again: People continually overestimate the value of draft picks compared to established, productive players. Last year in my leagues, the 1.09-1.12 pick was typically where Greene/Heyward-Bey/Robiskie went. Are any of those worth Turner?
You could start with two late firsts, depending on the other team's make up and plans it might be close.Oops, read that wrong - thought you had multiple picks. Add a decent WR or QB or RB2 type. Kevin Smith + late 1st should get him.
In PPR leagues though it isn't as good because he almost catches no passes. Right now he is 21st in my league with 154 points; I figure if he hadn't missed any games he would be up around 190 points, which puts him Kevin Smith or Forte territory. I wouldn't give up a top three pick for him. He is a good RB2 if healthy or a poor RB2 if he has issues like this season. Thanks for the feedback though. The more I hear you guys speak and the more I think about it, the more I realize he may not be a good buy for people in PPR dynasty like me.
Yeah, his value in PPR is definitely very limited.
Lots of past tense verbs in that explanation.Point being: in FF you don't get points for what he would have averaged had he played. The injury did happen and hurts his value. Not only for the rest of this season, but, as he is going to be 28 before next season - and still possibly coming back from injury, his value takes a hit. Basically, right now he's around RB12 in non-PPR leagues. If he continues to slip (either doesn't play this week or his production is a little off for the final three weeks) he'll end up around RB15 or so -right around guys like Mendenhall and Forte - who could have been had for a lot cheaper (and probably still could be). This was a player many had in the top 5 RBs - to finish outside the top 10 and possibly outside of the top 15 is a bad year. If Forte is having a bad year, how can Turner not be? In one league I'm in the two are only two slots apart in overall FF points for RBs (Mendy is right between them).
Dismissing his pre-injury excellence is a curious position. He was performing at a high level and scoring plenty of points even in a PPR league (though that obviously depends on scoring systems, in mine he was Top-10 before his injury). A high ankle sprain sucks, but it isn't the death knell you seem to perceive it as. His 2010 value should hold steady; hell, it might rise since the people who were worried about his high 2008 workload can be ensured he won't have nearly as many carries this year, priming him for an excellent 2010 season in which he continues to dominate the Atlanta backfield.
4 out of his first 6 games he had 65 rushing yards or less. In that period he was averaging 3.4 YPC. Yes, for a 3 game stretch against NO, Washington and Carolina he was excellent. His value in 2010 will not rise in dynasty leagues as he will be 28 (read "2 years away from the RB cliff"). In terms of people wooried about his workload - you're not really suggesting that people should be pleased becuase he didn't get as many carries becuase he's injured, are you?? IMHO (and the opinion of quite a few dynatsy owners) - the fact that he couldn't carry the load for more than one season IS the cause for concern. I am simply suggesting that the trade value for Turner has peaked in dynasty formats. He's getting older, and is now injured. If you have him, he is likely one of those "hold until he collapses"-type players as you will probably never be able trade him for the value he is to your team.
And 5 out of 9 games, he had 97 yards or more. (weeks 2, 5, 8, 9, 10)That’s three more than Ray Rice (1, 4)
Though as has been discussed previously in multiple threads, his relative lack of wear and tear due to his apprenticeship to Tomlinson means he’s not your typical 28-year-old running back, since, counting this year, he’s had exactly two seasons (out of 6) of more than 80 carries.
He sprained his ankle in his second year as a starter, which isn’t uncommon. A number of top RBs suffer injuries without questioning their durability. There’s no reason to take one injury in a vacuum and overreact to it. In an earlier thread on Turner, Drfeelgood said something that I’ll just quote here rather than pretend to restate it: “I don't know what spraining his ankle has to do with wear and tear. A running back with little amount of carries in his career would have sprained his ankle on that tackle if his foot turned under like Turner's did when being tackled. If anything, Turner was getting better with his running over the last few games, not wearing down.” http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/lofiv...hp/t505831.html
Right, and I’m suggesting that his value hasn’t peaked, because there’s no reason to be pessimistic from this point forward. Despite his slow start--which happened to the entire Falcons offense--he was performing on par with the top RBs in the league. He’s the bellcow and goal line threat in a running-focused offense. He was injured on a legitimate play in a way that has nothing to do with wear and tear. He has a minimal-to-nonexistent injury history, has incredibly little usage for a 28-year-old, and has no threat to his role or playing time. He could easily succeed into his early 30's.
My post was directed at those who claimed Turner was having a poor season prior to his injury. Of course discussing that requires using past tense verbs. It's in the past.
Agreed, and I've posted multiple times on how I thought Turner was a sell. If I could land him for a mediocre talent and a crapshoot draft pick, I'd do it without hesitating.Edited to add: not just a mediocre talent, but a mediocre talent coming off of an EVEN BIGGER injury than the one Turner is suffering from.I don't want to go all LHUCKS and turn into the guy who's always reminding people how awesome I am (because I'm really not that awesome) or how right all my calls are (because they aren't all right by a long shot), but anyone watching the Carolina/Minnesota game tonight is getting a chance to watch Jonathan Stewart show just how talented he is, and to watch Smiff remind everyone that he's still every bit as good as he always was. If you are the kind of guy who prizes talent over situation, there are two fantastic talents putting on a nice demonstration right now. It's not too late to get on board.Fear & Loathing said:
Yeah, I don't know how this got out-of-control. I said sell, but not give-away. A late first-round pick is worth almost nothing.
