Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)

[GreatLakesMike]

A question for those of you who play in leagues that allow bidding bucks to be traded:

When do bidding bucks have the most value? I'm thinking right after the rookie/free agent draft or maybe 3/4 into the regular season, right before the playoff push. Honestly though, it's something I've never thought about until this year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Smith North is not one of the top 10 WR talents in the game today. Personally, I don't think he's one of the top 20. I think he's a solid enough WR1 type, but I think over the long run his production is going to match his talent, and anyone who ranks him in the top 10 (no matter HOW MANY targets he's getting) will be guilty of grievous short-sightedness.

That depends on how one measures "talent" for a WR. First off I do agree that he's not a top 10 talent, but he can still produce like a top 15-20 WR because of the talents he does possess. The guy could get open in a phone booth because he has some nice short area quickness, but more improtantly is one of the most precise route runners in the league. He's not blazing fast, but has adequate speed to get by CBs - and it's a thing of beauty to watch how he stes the CB up with his routes making it easier for him to "outrun" even a faster CB. He's a hand catcher that fights for the ball in an attacking mode.He does have tons of talent - just not necessarily the "flashy" type of talent.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

A question for those of you who play in leagues that allow bidding bucks to be traded:When do bidding bucks have the most value? I'm thinking right after the rookie/free agent draft or maybe 3/4 into the regular season, right before the playoff push. Honestly though, it's something I've never thought about until this year.

I used to play in one that allowed trading and never really found they held much value. I would think they would be worth the most in the 1st few weeks of the season. That's when the surprise FAs get picked up and when most of the dollars seem to be spent.

 

[SSOG]

A question for those of you who play in leagues that allow bidding bucks to be traded:When do bidding bucks have the most value? I'm thinking right after the rookie/free agent draft or maybe 3/4 into the regular season, right before the playoff push. Honestly though, it's something I've never thought about until this year.

I don't know when they have the most PERCEIVED value... but I know when they have the most actual value. Week 1 of the regular season. The second most value is week 2, the third most value is week 3. If there's a guy who is a strong enough talent to be a long-term factor in dynasty leagues who has been flying under the radar, he will almost always show it early. Think Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, Maurice Jones-Drew, Smith North. Hell, last year after week 1 I burned #1 waiver priority in my dynasty league on Mike Wallace because I thought he looked awesome in the season opener. Later weeks might have their share of flash-in-the-pans (mostly guys who are taking over for an injured starter), but most of the guys with staying power will flash early.

That depends on how one measures "talent" for a WR. First off I do agree that he's not a top 10 talent, but he can still produce like a top 15-20 WR because of the talents he does possess. The guy could get open in a phone booth because he has some nice short area quickness, but more improtantly is one of the most precise route runners in the league. He's not blazing fast, but has adequate speed to get by CBs - and it's a thing of beauty to watch how he stes the CB up with his routes making it easier for him to "outrun" even a faster CB. He's a hand catcher that fights for the ball in an attacking mode.He does have tons of talent - just not necessarily the "flashy" type of talent.

That's EBF's old "sneaky good vs. freaky good" argument (Steven Jackson = freaky good... Frank Gore = sneaky good). I understand the argument, but I don't think it applies. I agree that Smith North is talented, but he is not as talented as any of the following players: Fitzgerald, Johnson, Johnson, Jackson, Jackson, Austin, White, Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, Colston, Rice, Crabtree, Moss, Smith South, Bryant, Nicks, Boldin, Harvin, Ochocinco. I'd say Sims-Walker, Evans, Bowe, Welker, and Ward all have a case, too. That's 20-25 WRs who are more talented than Smith North. I think that falling in love with Smith North as a dynasty receiver is falling into the same "bad process" trap that I fell into with Lee Evans- the trap of evaluating talent in a vacuum. Does Smith North have a lot of talent? Yes, he does. Lee Evans did, too- he simply oozed talent. It's easy to think of him as very valuable as a result... but it ignores the fact that there are two dozen receivers in the league right now who ooze talent just as much, if not more. In order for Smith North to rank in the top 20, he's going to have to outproduce several WRs who are more talented than he is. In order for him to rank in the top 10, he's going to have to produce a LOT of WRs who are more talented than he is. That's not a bet I'm interested in taking.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That's EBF's old "sneaky good vs. freaky good" argument (Steven Jackson = freaky good... Frank Gore = sneaky good). I understand the argument, but I don't think it applies. I agree that Smith North is talented, but he is not as talented as any of the following players: Fitzgerald, Johnson, Johnson, Jackson, Jackson, Austin, White, Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, Colston, Rice, Crabtree, Moss, Smith South, Bryant, Nicks, Boldin, Harvin, Ochocinco. I'd say Sims-Walker, Evans, Bowe, Welker, and Ward all have a case, too. That's 20-25 WRs who are more talented than Smith North.

I think that's where we mya hve a difference of opion. I would say he's better at some very important WR skills than many on that list. Maybe it's an aruments of skills v. talent.I don't own Smith in any leagues right now so I wouldn't say I'm "falling in love" with him but I do think you are underselling his skill level because he's not as fast as say Chad Ochocinco or not as big as say Michael Crabtree. I've already listed the things he's very good at. In some cases we wouldn't be comparing apples to apples so it's hard to say who is more talented or who's talent makes for a better NFL WR. He was a second round pick (maybe third) coming out of the premier college football program in the nation at the time - lets not act like he's some slub playing above his talent level. USC recruits talent afterall.How many on that list are better route runners than Smith? How many have better hands? How many are more intelligent? He's a young WR that has gotten better every year. I'm not trying to turn him into something he's not, but there's plenty of fantasy value in a possession WR that also has some big play capability. I do think last season was very likely a career year, but I don't see why he's not capable of putting up a few more top 20 seasons over his career. He has Eli Manning's trust and he has a talent like Nicks on the otherside to draw attention away from him.

 

[SSOG]

That's EBF's old "sneaky good vs. freaky good" argument (Steven Jackson = freaky good... Frank Gore = sneaky good). I understand the argument, but I don't think it applies. I agree that Smith North is talented, but he is not as talented as any of the following players: Fitzgerald, Johnson, Johnson, Jackson, Jackson, Austin, White, Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, Colston, Rice, Crabtree, Moss, Smith South, Bryant, Nicks, Boldin, Harvin, Ochocinco. I'd say Sims-Walker, Evans, Bowe, Welker, and Ward all have a case, too. That's 20-25 WRs who are more talented than Smith North.

I think that's where we mya hve a difference of opion. I would say he's better at some very important WR skills than many on that list. Maybe it's an aruments of skills v. talent.I don't own Smith in any leagues right now so I wouldn't say I'm "falling in love" with him but I do think you are underselling his skill level because he's not as fast as say Chad Ochocinco or not as big as say Michael Crabtree. I've already listed the things he's very good at. In some cases we wouldn't be comparing apples to apples so it's hard to say who is more talented or who's talent makes for a better NFL WR. He was a second round pick (maybe third) coming out of the premier college football program in the nation at the time - lets not act like he's some slub playing above his talent level. USC recruits talent afterall.How many on that list are better route runners than Smith? How many have better hands? How many are more intelligent? He's a young WR that has gotten better every year. I'm not trying to turn him into something he's not, but there's plenty of fantasy value in a possession WR that also has some big play capability. I do think last season was very likely a career year, but I don't see why he's not capable of putting up a few more top 20 seasons over his career. He has Eli Manning's trust and he has a talent like Nicks on the otherside to draw attention away from him.

I never said that he was "some slub playing above his talent level". In fact, I believe I used the words "oozes talent" to describe him. Pretty sure I've said he's a legit NFL #1, too. He's got talent. You and I just disagree on where that talent ranks relative to his peers. I put him in the 20-25 range. Out of curiousity, where would you put him based strictly on talent?Also, the whole "he has a talented WR on the other side to draw attention" factor is radically overrated by fantasy owners. Assuming a WR is talented enough to handle #1 coverages (and, if I agree that Smith is a legit NFL #1, then obviously I think he is), then having a great WR on the other side will do more to hurt the player than it will to help him. There's only one football, after all- that quality WR is going to be drawing targets more than he'll be drawing coverages. Just look at Fitzgerald's with/without Boldin splits. Look at Harrison's numbers in the 4 years before Wayne broke out and his numbers in the 4 years after Wayne broke out (or look at Wayne's numbers before Garcon/Collie came on strong compared to his numbers after). Quality second options get targets, and those targets usually come at the expense of the first option. The fact that Smith North is going to play Robin to Nicks' Batman (or Batman to Nicks' Robin) is a negative, not a positive. I'd much prefer a Superman- doing it all on his own- to a Batman.

 

[renesauz]

That's EBF's old "sneaky good vs. freaky good" argument (Steven Jackson = freaky good... Frank Gore = sneaky good). I understand the argument, but I don't think it applies. I agree that Smith North is talented, but he is not as talented as any of the following players: Fitzgerald, Johnson, Johnson, Jackson, Jackson, Austin, White, Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, Colston, Rice, Crabtree, Moss, Smith South, Bryant, Nicks, Boldin, Harvin, Ochocinco. I'd say Sims-Walker, Evans, Bowe, Welker, and Ward all have a case, too. That's 20-25 WRs who are more talented than Smith North.

I think that's where we mya hve a difference of opion. I would say he's better at some very important WR skills than many on that list. Maybe it's an aruments of skills v. talent.I don't own Smith in any leagues right now so I wouldn't say I'm "falling in love" with him but I do think you are underselling his skill level because he's not as fast as say Chad Ochocinco or not as big as say Michael Crabtree. I've already listed the things he's very good at. In some cases we wouldn't be comparing apples to apples so it's hard to say who is more talented or who's talent makes for a better NFL WR. He was a second round pick (maybe third) coming out of the premier college football program in the nation at the time - lets not act like he's some slub playing above his talent level. USC recruits talent afterall.How many on that list are better route runners than Smith? How many have better hands? How many are more intelligent? He's a young WR that has gotten better every year. I'm not trying to turn him into something he's not, but there's plenty of fantasy value in a possession WR that also has some big play capability. I do think last season was very likely a career year, but I don't see why he's not capable of putting up a few more top 20 seasons over his career. He has Eli Manning's trust and he has a talent like Nicks on the otherside to draw attention away from him.

But it may be inconsequential. I also think he's very talented and should be ranked inside the top 20...but I see the argument about the other WR's. I see Smith north as a solid WR2, who should produce at that level for a long time. In the end, rank 18 vs. rank 25 is mostly preferance though.I do like the sneaky good vs. flashy good analogy. I belive Smith N fits in the sneaky good category

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That's EBF's old "sneaky good vs. freaky good" argument (Steven Jackson = freaky good... Frank Gore = sneaky good). I understand the argument, but I don't think it applies. I agree that Smith North is talented, but he is not as talented as any of the following players: Fitzgerald, Johnson, Johnson, Jackson, Jackson, Austin, White, Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, Colston, Rice, Crabtree, Moss, Smith South, Bryant, Nicks, Boldin, Harvin, Ochocinco. I'd say Sims-Walker, Evans, Bowe, Welker, and Ward all have a case, too. That's 20-25 WRs who are more talented than Smith North.

I think that's where we mya hve a difference of opion. I would say he's better at some very important WR skills than many on that list. Maybe it's an aruments of skills v. talent.

I don't own Smith in any leagues right now so I wouldn't say I'm "falling in love" with him but I do think you are underselling his skill level because he's not as fast as say Chad Ochocinco or not as big as say Michael Crabtree. I've already listed the things he's very good at. In some cases we wouldn't be comparing apples to apples so it's hard to say who is more talented or who's talent makes for a better NFL WR. He was a second round pick (maybe third) coming out of the premier college football program in the nation at the time - lets not act like he's some slub playing above his talent level. USC recruits talent afterall.

How many on that list are better route runners than Smith? How many have better hands? How many are more intelligent? He's a young WR that has gotten better every year. I'm not trying to turn him into something he's not, but there's plenty of fantasy value in a possession WR that also has some big play capability.

I do think last season was very likely a career year, but I don't see why he's not capable of putting up a few more top 20 seasons over his career. He has Eli Manning's trust and he has a talent like Nicks on the otherside to draw attention away from him.

I never said that he was "some slub playing above his talent level". In fact, I believe I used the words "oozes talent" to describe him. Pretty sure I've said he's a legit NFL #1, too. He's got talent. You and I just disagree on where that talent ranks relative to his peers. I put him in the 20-25 range. Out of curiousity, where would you put him based strictly on talent?Also, the whole "he has a talented WR on the other side to draw attention" factor is radically overrated by fantasy owners. Assuming a WR is talented enough to handle #1 coverages (and, if I agree that Smith is a legit NFL #1, then obviously I think he is), then having a great WR on the other side will do more to hurt the player than it will to help him. There's only one football, after all- that quality WR is going to be drawing targets more than he'll be drawing coverages. Just look at Fitzgerald's with/without Boldin splits. Look at Harrison's numbers in the 4 years before Wayne broke out and his numbers in the 4 years after Wayne broke out (or look at Wayne's numbers before Garcon/Collie came on strong compared to his numbers after). Quality second options get targets, and those targets usually come at the expense of the first option. The fact that Smith North is going to play Robin to Nicks' Batman (or Batman to Nicks' Robin) is a negative, not a positive. I'd much prefer a Superman- doing it all on his own- to a Batman.

Sorry I wasn't trying to say that you did say that, but my words did imply such. It was more of a general statement as it seems to be a general thought, since he isn't the flashy type.As far as having Nicks - for a possession type WR I think it does help having a dynamic talent drawing some attention (think Wes Welker, Amani Toomer or TJ Housh for some examples) - but I do see your point as well. I think they'll compliment eachother in a positive way.

As far as how I'd rank him from a pure talnt standpoint, like I said it's tough since it's not an apple to apples comaprison and it would depend on how you define "talent" - but I do think he's arguably one of the top 20 WRs in the league or can at least grow into that role.

 

[Creed Bratton]

That's EBF's old "sneaky good vs. freaky good" argument (Steven Jackson = freaky good... Frank Gore = sneaky good). I understand the argument, but I don't think it applies. I agree that Smith North is talented, but he is not as talented as any of the following players: Fitzgerald, Johnson, Johnson, Jackson, Jackson, Austin, White, Marshall, Wayne, Jennings, Colston, Rice, Crabtree, Moss, Smith South, Bryant, Nicks, Boldin, Harvin, Ochocinco. I'd say Sims-Walker, Evans, Bowe, Welker, and Ward all have a case, too. That's 20-25 WRs who are more talented than Smith North.

I think that's where we mya hve a difference of opion. I would say he's better at some very important WR skills than many on that list. Maybe it's an aruments of skills v. talent.I don't own Smith in any leagues right now so I wouldn't say I'm "falling in love" with him but I do think you are underselling his skill level because he's not as fast as say Chad Ochocinco or not as big as say Michael Crabtree. I've already listed the things he's very good at. In some cases we wouldn't be comparing apples to apples so it's hard to say who is more talented or who's talent makes for a better NFL WR. He was a second round pick (maybe third) coming out of the premier college football program in the nation at the time - lets not act like he's some slub playing above his talent level. USC recruits talent afterall.How many on that list are better route runners than Smith? How many have better hands? How many are more intelligent? He's a young WR that has gotten better every year. I'm not trying to turn him into something he's not, but there's plenty of fantasy value in a possession WR that also has some big play capability. I do think last season was very likely a career year, but I don't see why he's not capable of putting up a few more top 20 seasons over his career. He has Eli Manning's trust and he has a talent like Nicks on the otherside to draw attention away from him.

I never said that he was "some slub playing above his talent level". In fact, I believe I used the words "oozes talent" to describe him. Pretty sure I've said he's a legit NFL #1, too. He's got talent. You and I just disagree on where that talent ranks relative to his peers. I put him in the 20-25 range. Out of curiousity, where would you put him based strictly on talent?Also, the whole "he has a talented WR on the other side to draw attention" factor is radically overrated by fantasy owners. Assuming a WR is talented enough to handle #1 coverages (and, if I agree that Smith is a legit NFL #1, then obviously I think he is), then having a great WR on the other side will do more to hurt the player than it will to help him. There's only one football, after all- that quality WR is going to be drawing targets more than he'll be drawing coverages. Just look at Fitzgerald's with/without Boldin splits. Look at Harrison's numbers in the 4 years before Wayne broke out and his numbers in the 4 years after Wayne broke out (or look at Wayne's numbers before Garcon/Collie came on strong compared to his numbers after). Quality second options get targets, and those targets usually come at the expense of the first option. The fact that Smith North is going to play Robin to Nicks' Batman (or Batman to Nicks' Robin) is a negative, not a positive. I'd much prefer a Superman- doing it all on his own- to a Batman.

I actually agree with you in that having quality secondary options who could draw targets away from a #1 wide receiver is usually not good for that wide receiver's fantasy production. But, I don't think that holds true in every case. There are instances where improving the offense as a whole leads to a bigger pie to be divided for the players involved. But, I think this applies more to really elite offenses. Fitz/Boldin is a good example. Fitzgerald put up his best numbers with Boldin in 2008 while Warner was enjoying one of his best seasons. I don't think it's a coincidence that Randy Moss scored a combined 40 touchdowns in his rookie year and in 2007 opposite highly productive receivers. But, in general, I think being the sole option is better for elite talent receivers especially for generating receptions and yardage.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

A question for those of you who play in leagues that allow bidding bucks to be traded:When do bidding bucks have the most value? I'm thinking right after the rookie/free agent draft or maybe 3/4 into the regular season, right before the playoff push. Honestly though, it's something I've never thought about until this year.

I used to play in one that allowed trading and never really found they held much value. I would think they would be worth the most in the 1st few weeks of the season. That's when the surprise FAs get picked up and when most of the dollars seem to be spent.

A question for those of you who play in leagues that allow bidding bucks to be traded:When do bidding bucks have the most value? I'm thinking right after the rookie/free agent draft or maybe 3/4 into the regular season, right before the playoff push. Honestly though, it's something I've never thought about until this year.

I don't know when they have the most PERCEIVED value... but I know when they have the most actual value. Week 1 of the regular season. The second most value is week 2, the third most value is week 3. If there's a guy who is a strong enough talent to be a long-term factor in dynasty leagues who has been flying under the radar, he will almost always show it early. Think Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, Maurice Jones-Drew, Smith North. Hell, last year after week 1 I burned #1 waiver priority in my dynasty league on Mike Wallace because I thought he looked awesome in the season opener. Later weeks might have their share of flash-in-the-pans (mostly guys who are taking over for an injured starter), but most of the guys with staying power will flash early.

SSOG, Perceived value vs. Actual value is a good point. I'm probably looking for "perceived" value. I left 70% of my bidding bucks on the table last year because I didn't want to drop anyone on my roster. In hindsight, I probably should have "shot my wad" in week 1 and been done with it. My roster is stronger this year, and barring a catastrophic injury, I won't be dropping anyone. Perhaps a better plan would be to work the trade block and try to clear up a roster spot. Good information guys. Thanks SSOG and Buckeye.

 

[SSOG]

Sorry I wasn't trying to say that you did say that, but my words did imply such. It was more of a general statement as it seems to be a general thought, since he isn't the flashy type.As far as having Nicks - for a possession type WR I think it does help having a dynamic talent drawing some attention (think Wes Welker, Amani Toomer or TJ Housh for some examples) - but I do see your point as well. I think they'll compliment eachother in a positive way.As far as how I'd rank him from a pure talnt standpoint, like I said it's tough since it's not an apple to apples comaprison and it would depend on how you define "talent" - but I do think he's arguably one of the top 20 WRs in the league or can at least grow into that role.

I don't think it's at all a stretch to say that Smith North is arguably a top-20 WR. I've currently got him in the 20-25 range, so if someone has him in the 17-20 range that means we really only disagree on one or two receivers. My main point is that, unless Smith North grows dramatically in the next year or two (something not entirely outside of the realm of possibility), then anyone who ever puts him among the top 10 dynasty receivers is guilty of dramatically overrating opportunity. I'm going to be shocked if Smith North is ever one of the top 10 WR talents in the game.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Of course. I'm a BIG proponent of talent over situation. But situation can't be ignored. And, as you keenly pointed out, we're not talking about dropping him out of the top 25. For me, however, I can't justify putting a player in the top 5 when his situation limits his upside and there's no foreseeable change in the near future (next 1-2 years). I've already stated I can understand the ranking, I just don't hold the same viewpoint. You can't take things to either extreme (looking at ONLY talent or ONLY situation) or else you can get burned.

Finally, Jackson isn't old but he certainly isn't young either. Factor in that he's likely to miss most of this year and there's the possibility of a work stoppage next year and you're looking at a WR that will possibly be 29 going on 30 the next time he sees the field. Sorry but I simply can't rank that kind of guy over other TALENTS like Austin or S. Rice or Jennings or Marshall who not only have produced but are younger and also in better situations.

Likely? I think not.

It's June!

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Fair enough. I am just aksing about V-Jax because he is the only one, so far, where neither side is willing to cave and also wondering if it gives any of those who are high on V-Jax pause about his actual talent compared to other top WR's.

I'm very high on V-Jax, and I have no doubts at all that his actual talent is elite. I don't think there are a handful of WRs better than him right now.

VJax is going into his 6th season his career high receptions is 68 and he's never had a double digit TD season..When is this "actual talent" going to show up? His numbers threw 5 years are less then guys like Santana Moss and Lee Evans.

It's crazy people call this joker elite.. He's far from it, (numbers don't lie) add in the fact he cant stay out of trouble, you have your reason Chargers are not giving in.

Oh, give me a break. Receptions are vastly overrated. He had more first downs than Brandon Marshall last year on 33 fewer receptions. That's amazing production.

Touchdowns? If you want to draw the line for elite at a random number like 10, then you can take Andre Johnson out of the elite discussion too.

In addition to finishing first in Football Outsiders' DVOA efficiency metrics, he also finished first in Pro Football Focus' ratings. If you don't like metrics, then watch the guy play. If you can't spot talent, then you can't be helped. His elite talent is undeniable.

Turn down the tool volume.

Last time I checked this is a fantasy football discussion. You seem to have tunnel vision for this guy and comparing him to Andre Johnson is a JOKE.

Comparing him to Marshall is just as funny. Let's not forget Marshall has had more than 1 bad QB throwing him the ball. Vjax on the other hand has one of the best.

Now I have read you downgrading Marshall for bad character issues but refuse to do so with Vjax.. This makes you look very biased in your ranking system and what apply's for one should apply to another.

So give me a break

1. Look up above a couple of paragraphs. The subject on the table was "actual talent" not fantasy football. So turn down your own "tool volume" and turn up your reading comprehension.I'm not the one who decided that having a double-digit TD season in one's resume was the be-all/end-all for elite talent at the position (Remember how elite James Jett was in the 90s?). Furthermore, I don't think it's a joke to compare V-Jax to Andre Johnson since they're both 2 of the top-5 WRs in the NFL. And V-Jax is a better football player than Brandon Marshall. He just is.

2. I don't care if I look biased in my ranking system. I am biased in my ranking system. Anyone who has read this thread or the blog for the past four years should know that by now. Putting out unbiased opinions or rankings has never been what I'm trying to do.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Come on Chris - I have no problem if you or SSOG want to argue whether VJAX is "elite" based on talent & what you all see on the field. but basing it on the DVOA & PF Focus #'s BECAUSE they happen to help support your case in THIS instance is seriously flawed IMO.

FLOYD finished 7th in both DVOA & PFFocus - Maybe Rivers is just very efficient at delivering a good deep ball & letting his big, tall WR's go up & get it (I happen to feel that's partly the case) - yet he is ranked outside your top 50 & received the SAME tender from the Chargers that VJAX did. In PFFocus #'s - BESS finished Top 10 & MUSHIN & CHAMBERS both finished TOP 25. Walter was in the top 25 of DVOA & Cotchery finished top 10 in both metrics I believe.

You can argue that recs. don't matter but they relate to the type of O that a team runs, or how much a team targets a certain WR & in FANTASY that does matter. Like Gianmarco said in his post, VJAX with fewer targets/recs than the others in the top 10 has much less margin for error. If Matthews ends up being better than LT (the past 2 years LT) & SD becomes more run oriented (Norvs' basic tendency IMO) does VJax get MORE targets?

Again, the subject on the table was "elite talent" not future fantasy football value in PPR leagues. I'm very comfortable in calling V-Jax an elite talent based on what I've seen with my eyes, the metrics of two respected sites, and his basic stats.Since this "what I've seen with my eyes" seems to have been at the heart of many of the debates on here over the past few years, let me just state this for the record:

I'm not a scout. I understand that everybody isn't going to take my word on talent as gospel proof. I'm cool with that. But there are situations where I know a player is much better than people commonly believe. If I fight hard for a player it's because what I've seen on the field has convinced me that he's special.

If I get irritated on a player such as V-Jax, or Calvin Johnson, or Chris Johnson, or MJD, it's because people aren't seeing what I'm seeing. I can't make you see it, either. If that makes me a tool, so be it.

Regardless, rehashing arguments over and over again gets really old. Intelligent debate is one thing but dismissing V-Jax as non-elite outright (i.e. "It's crazy people call this joker elite") with specious arguments such as "never had double digit TDs in a season" just rub me the wrong way. I know, I'd do better to ignore those posts.

Plus, on the "knucklehead" front, if this was Marshall "holding out" I can guarantee you it would be MUCH MORE of a "concern" to you & others. But it seems that since you like VJAX the contract situation, suspension (DUI's), etc. are "no big deal" & just part of the normal NFL bargaining process (the CJ & Revis situations aren't the SAME, since both were first RD talent & considered the BEST @ their respective positions, & much more valuable to their teams IMO). Maybe SD management doesn't feel the same & those things do matter to them when figuring in a player in their long term plans.

To not take those things into account when discussing DYNASTY value (on a WR you have #4) NOW (you yourself have said that these things - rankings - can be very fluid, I remember the huge amount of guff the poster got last year because he said he wanted Austin ranked over Ocho after his first two big games, yet now it is universally accepted) however doesn't seem to make much sense. I don't think any VJAX owner should be panicking & selling but I'm not sure anybody should be paying top 10 value to buy him now either.

I LOVE this thread & the whole Dynasty discussion - I think it is one of the MOST valuable things in the SP (& in FBGuys for that matter) but in this case I just happen to RESPECTFULLY disagree with you.

Fair enough. I don't mind respectfully disagreeing at all.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Do you know how I read this thread? I scan for F&L, SSOG, Thriftyrocker, EBF and a few other guys I know and trust. Those guys got there because I read their predictions/opinions and weeks, or months or years later their views were validated by actual results. F&L is the undisputed king in my mind. If theres a disagreement among the guys I trust I side with F&L.

I used to spend tons of time reading everything I could to compete in my leagues. Now I just make sure I read those guys and get the Footballguys summary email daily to keep up on news. I have won repeatedly against great competition in my local league and in expert leagues coming out of the forums. I've built dominant fantasy teams just by following F&L's advice.

Granted it is a discussion and that involves one or more people expressing opinions back and forth. However, I can see why F&L gets frustrated rehashing old arguments over and over again. Hell I get tired of re-reading them. Particularly when they follow logic like "value is based on the future, but hey here's proof that this guys sucks: look at his past and some other irrelevant stuff". Hey, thanks for the great insight. It seems like there are people here just for the argument (and a useless one at that) and not a relevant, insightful dynasty fantasy discussion.

To borrow and F&L phrase he used regarding Miles Austin: F&L is the truth.

Ignore him to your own detriment. I'll keep listening and continue tacking up championship banners. Dynasty is his world and we're all just living in it.

Thank you for the kind words, samNhenry.

SSOG, Thriftyrocker, EBF, and at least a couple dozen others here make this the best Dynasty discussion going.

 

[OnThInIcE911]

I appreciate those who responded to my comments on V-Jax. I actually have much less hate for him after all this talk.

I still probably won't own him since I think most owners value him higher than I do but I wouldn't pass on a chance to grab him on the cheap right now.

 

[Rockchild]

Thank you for the kind words, samNhenry. SSOG, Thriftyrocker, EBF, and at least a couple dozen others here make this the best Dynasty discussion going.

These contributors are great but I also appreciate others who don't post as often or have contrary opinions and ideas. It's great to have alternatives to get everyone thinking and developing their own rankings and opinions on players. It can be exasperating for 'discussions' to go on and on without progressing in the discussion and sometimes getting personal. It does clog up the thread but overall it usually gets back on track and cooler heads prevail. Keep up the good work everyone.

 

[whodeywhodey]

Have you guys discussed James Jones yet?

With the 35 year old Donald Driver having bilateral knee surgery this offseason I think he is one of THE players to get right now.

I have him stashed and am loving it!

 

[Mimo]

Nice article by Tom Kowalski (Lions Beat Writer) on Calvin. This is a BIG year for him, is he all hype or will he produce at where many expect him to.

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2010/...+-+MLive.com%29

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Nice article by Tom Kowalski (Lions Beat Writer) on Calvin. This is a BIG year for him, is he all hype or will he produce at where many expect him to.

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2010/...+-+MLive.com%29

Not really sure how a WR who already has a 1300/12 season could be talked about as all hype.

 

[SSOG]

Plus, on the "knucklehead" front, if this was Marshall "holding out" I can guarantee you it would be MUCH MORE of a "concern" to you & others. But it seems that since you like VJAX the contract situation, suspension (DUI's), etc. are "no big deal" & just part of the normal NFL bargaining process (the CJ & Revis situations aren't the SAME, since both were first RD talent & considered the BEST @ their respective positions, & much more valuable to their teams IMO). Maybe SD management doesn't feel the same & those things do matter to them when figuring in a player in their long term plans.

I've thought about this for a while and realized that you're absolutely right. I've reached a decision that Marshall is a knucklehead (a very educated and well-informed decision, and a decision that I won't back off of in the slightest- if Marshall isn't a knucklehead, then no one on this entire planet is). With that said, since I've made that decision already, I'm predisposed towards viewing everything through that particular prism. If Marshall was holding out, I would absolutely hold it up as further evidence of his knuckleheadedness. That would be a mistake on my part, though. Holdouts don't make people knuckleheaded, they just serve as a reminder to the casual fan that what to us is entertainment to the players is a job. If I felt that I was undercompensated, I would do what I had to to bring my compensation back up in line with what my skills merited. That doesn't make me a knucklehead, that doesn't make Vincent Jackson a knucklehead, and it wouldn't make Brandon Marshall a knucklehead, either. Which isn't to say that Marshall wouldn't still be a knucklehead for various other reasons.

Have you guys discussed James Jones yet?

With the 35 year old Donald Driver having bilateral knee surgery this offseason I think he is one of THE players to get right now.

I have him stashed and am loving it!

James Jones is one of the biggest headaches on my entire roster. Every 2 months or so somebody brings up a James Jones vs. Jordy Nelson discussion, and every 2 months I try to come up with something intelligent or educated to say on the battle... but at the end of the day, it really just beats the ever-living @&*% out of me. I've got no freaking clue which of the two is going to be the guy who steps up when Driver steps down. I don't think anybody does. I question whether the GB coaches even do. I'm pretty sure it's going to be one of those two, so I've just acquired both and then locked their roster spots and put them into hibernation. In a year or two we'll find out who the victor was, but in the meantime I'm just burning two roster spots to secure one NFL position (GBWR2).I also went out and acquired Finley this offseason as a hedge in case Green Bay turns into the northern version of the Owens and Witten show in Dallas. I'd hate to have burned both of those roster spots for 3+ years to walk away with nothing.

 

[Fighting Noles]

We agree on that part then SSOG (holdout doesn't = knucklehead). Also, I NEVER got into the Marshall "knucklehead" debate, nor defended him. I also wasn't comparing Marshall to VJAX in that regard either (although the DUI's/suspension looming is "troubling" when compared to others ranked around him with no such issues). I simply felt (& still do feel) when I wrote that, if it was Marshall threatening a hold out - We would have had another "Here goes another day in the life of Brandon owners" thread started and instead we have had a lot of - "It's June fellas" or "This happens all the time, etc." I think this is simply because two of the main contributors here (F & L and yourself - and I stated that both of your contributions have added a TON to this entire thread and to the board as a whole, along with many others who post in here and that I value when reading) happen to like VJAX a LOT. You both have him as either WR4 or 5 in Dynasty.

First off, the situation with the CBA & RFA's status is VERY DIFFERENT this year from previous ones and it lends itself to players in VJAXs' case (who we both agree, as he surely does, should be better compensated) POSSIBLY being willing to sit out rather than play for an inferior salary and risk injury. IF AJ does not "reup" the lowered tender, I simply don't see VJAX playing for $600K this year. Throw in the suspension (lost salary $'s) and the fact that the CBA is in "limbo" right now and quite frankly, ownership holds most of the cards in his case IMO. I know many here will say that SD can't win without him or that they would be seriously hurting their chances, but when you look at that division I'm not sure AJ/Mgmnt. agree with that. I think they would be "ok" with him missing 10 games & playing in the postseason and I think VJAX might feel "well we'll see how you do in the postseason without me". This is why I thought it needed to be considered in a player ranked so highly. I also feel playing with Rivers (a top 5 QB), helps VJAX, and if he somehow leaves SD over this, that could also impact his ranking.

I have also read from others who like him that high - "Well what is the BIG difference between WR4 or 10 anyway", F&L has them all in the same tier and we are just arguing around the "edges" or over slight disagreements, etc.

I couldn't DISAGREE more with that line of thinking. In DYNASTY, it is those types of decisions in start-ups and trades that can make or break you for YEARS. A SECOND RD START-UP pick is VERY important NOT to miss on. I want at least 3-4 CORE players on my team and "missing" (what I mean by that, is taking a player who either underperforms the spot or is impacted in trade value negatively when compared to those drafted around him) on one is a BIG deal IMO. That's the whole difference between Dynasty and REDRAFT - You have these players for a long time. Where I think Chris' gets "ticked" sometimes, is with those who don't feel VJAX is talented - I never said that. I simply am not sure he is AS talented or more importantly, will be given the full opportunity to showcase those talents (I do feel Gianmarcos' target argument has a lot of validity on players ranked THIS HIGH) as others in the same tier. I think these ARE the things that should be discussed in this thread, along with whether Rice/Harvin warrant their rankings once Favre leaves, Waynes' age & Garcon/Collie stepping up last year, Marshalls' "knuckleheadness", Gore & SJAXs' "tipping points" etc... BECAUSE those are the types of questions that mine & many other leagues deal with every day when a trade is offered or a draft starts. These are all top tier players and choosing the right one is very important IMO & quite frankly why I like this thread so much. I know everyone LOVES finding the next Austin, Rice(s) or other guy that seemingly comes out of nowhere (and this thread helps a lot in that regard too) but I'd much rather get my core group of players "right" (especially for those of us who play in LARGER leagues with less margin for error) and let my drafting hopefully take over once the top 60 or so are off the board. EVERYBODY basically knows the top 25-30 guys but they may have vastly different opinions on where those players rank.

That's why I don't think it's "nitpicking" to discuss VJAX's contract situation or lack of targets here and why I said I RESPECTFULLY disagreed with Chris using the DVOA/DYOR #'s to support his case (since the rankings bump up most big target guys - like I said, Floyd was 7th in both, yet F & L has him ranked 73rd). I totally agree with you both saying "I see it with my eyes on the field" - But that is true with most top 10 - 15 guys at their position (esp. WR) and figuring out which ones will really STAY ranked that high based on those talents is the KEY & why I think some of us keep coming back here to discuss certain players....

Thanks as always for the feedback & thinking it over for a couple of days (& for your "edit" above F & L).

 

[thecardiackid]

I disagree. A DUI is worse. It would take a lot of immature camp antics to get suspended. On top of that, a DUI means a person put his life and the life of others at jeopardy.

Everything else aside, and in dynasty formats, (at least to me) it's very concerning that VJax has been CAUGHT and formally charged w/ DUI's 2x in that 3 year span. I'm not getting in the middle of the *who is the lesser knucklehead* debate between BM and VJ. But, if I'm even considering making a move to acquire the potential upside of Jackson based on the #s, combined w/ his pending 2010 time out, I'd probably look elsewhere. If he was 24 now, maybe that would be different.Regardless of his talent or poential, I just don't see Norv changing enough (especially in PPR formats) to make it worth the investment.Yes, he has elite NFL talent, but his overall situation (both w/ the offensive distribution in SD, and his evident personal issues w/ current & pending suspensions) - makes it tough to bet your current to mid-term dynasty future on the upside.

 

[thecardiackid]

So with all this talk about VJax missing a lot of time this year, how about some thoughts on whether or not Naanee or Davis can seize an opportunity? My first pick would be Davis, but the guy just can't stay healthy. He seemed to have a nice offseason and then he gets a concussion. Did he have injury problems at LSU? Naanee probably has more athletic ability, but he is missing his chance while sitting out an injury of his own. Anyone have any opinions on either one?Just to be clear: I realize this is deep sea fishing here. VJax's absence is more likely to create opportunity for Gates, Mathews, Sproles & Floyd. I'm talking about waiver wire/late draft flyer here.

Anyone have an opinion on C. "buster" Davis? Former late 1st round pick w/ a possible (maybe short term) door opening? Or Naanee for that matter (though he's probably rostered in most deeper leagues @ this point).I was thinking about dropping either K. Burton or maybe J. Dillard (bench scraps) for Davis on a flyier in one (keep 25) league.

 

[SSOG]

First off, the situation with the CBA & RFA's status is VERY DIFFERENT this year from previous ones and it lends itself to players in VJAXs' case (who we both agree, as he surely does, should be better compensated) POSSIBLY being willing to sit out rather than play for an inferior salary and risk injury. IF AJ does not "reup" the lowered tender, I simply don't see VJAX playing for $600K this year. Throw in the suspension (lost salary $'s) and the fact that the CBA is in "limbo" right now and quite frankly, ownership holds most of the cards in his case IMO. I know many here will say that SD can't win without him or that they would be seriously hurting their chances, but when you look at that division I'm not sure AJ/Mgmnt. agree with that. I think they would be "ok" with him missing 10 games & playing in the postseason and I think VJAX might feel "well we'll see how you do in the postseason without me". This is why I thought it needed to be considered in a player ranked so highly. I also feel playing with Rivers (a top 5 QB), helps VJAX, and if he somehow leaves SD over this, that could also impact his ranking.

I definitely do consider it. Last season, I had VJax as my dynasty WR4. Currently, I've got him at WR6 (I dropped him behind Roddy and Austin). I have looked at dropping him lower, but I think everyone below him as just as much in the way of warts and not quite as much in the way of talent (for instance, I don't think Desean will ever be a regular TD producer, Wayne is old, Dez and Crabs are still unproven, Colston's not a featured WR1, I've always thought that Jennings was overrated, Marshall's a knucklehead, Rice has Harvin coming up through the ranks and Tavaris Jackson looming at QB). If we approach the season and the holdout still looks likely, I'll probably drop VJax another rung or two.I don't think that leaving San Diego hurts VJax that much, though. His efficiency numbers will surely fall hard, but going from 100 targets to 150 targets would more than offset that. I'd rather he stay (because I think he's capable of getting 130-150 targets with the Bolts), but if he goes, he's still one of the most talented guys in the league.

Anyone have an opinion on C. "buster" Davis? Former late 1st round pick w/ a possible (maybe short term) door opening? Or Naanee for that matter (though he's probably rostered in most deeper leagues @ this point).I was thinking about dropping either K. Burton or maybe J. Dillard (bench scraps) for Davis on a flyier in one (keep 25) league.

Our free agents are locked and our rookie draft is actually a rookie/FA draft, but I rostered Naanee around week 15 or so as a "why the hell not" flier, and I'm liking it so far. He's a physical specimen, and I'm curious to see what he does next year if VJax holds out. I'm not expecting much, but like I said, he's a "why the hell not" kind of add.I'm not that high on Buster Davis, but I'd take him over Keenan Burton in a heartbeat. Untalented #3 WR on a good passing offense trumps untalented #3 WR on a terrible passing offense.

 

[D'OHtis]

Re: James jones

I think Jordy will wind up replacing driver. Better football player. James jones reeks of Bryant Johnson to me. I don't know that he'll be in gb after his contract is up.

 

[Go deep]

Re: James jonesI think Jordy will wind up replacing driver. Better football player. James jones reeks of Bryant Johnson to me. I don't know that he'll be in gb after his contract is up.

I think Finley will be the biggest beneficiary, although i do think Jones is more likely to take over the #2 WR spot. Not so much based on talent, but skill set. Just seems he is better outside, and Nelson inside.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

####### and Beer gave up Wayne, Reggie IND WR

Schmiden Theory gave up Avery, Donnie STL WR;Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR;Houshmandzadeh, T.J. SEA WR;Meachem, Robert NOS WR

unfair trade?

 

[Go deep]

####### and Beer gave up Wayne, Reggie IND WRSchmiden Theory gave up Avery, Donnie STL WR;Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR;Houshmandzadeh, T.J. SEA WR;Meachem, Robert NOS WRunfair trade?

Fair trade, but i prefer the Wayne side ever so slightly. By the way, this is an ACF question.

 

[Inspiration]

Re: James jonesI think Jordy will wind up replacing driver. Better football player. James jones reeks of Bryant Johnson to me. I don't know that he'll be in gb after his contract is up.

I think Finley will be the biggest beneficiary, although i do think Jones is more likely to take over the #2 WR spot. Not so much based on talent, but skill set. Just seems he is better outside, and Nelson inside.

Being better outside or inside has little impact on whether or not a player starts for his team. No team is going to give an inferior player 300+ extra snaps over the course of a season simply because the superior option is best inside. Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Hines Ward, Steve Smith (NYG) and TJ Houshmandzadeh are just a few examples of players who served as their teams' primary slot receiver while still starting for their team. In fact, Donald Driver (who started all 16 games for the Packers last season) frequently moved inside when James Jones entered the game (and led the team snaps taken from the slot). That's not to say that James Jones won't win the starting position over Jordy Nelson. Rather, I simply mean to say that snaps will largely be determined based on talent level, not primary position.

 

[shader]

I couldn't DISAGREE more with that line of thinking. In DYNASTY, it is those types of decisions in start-ups and trades that can make or break you for YEARS. A SECOND RD START-UP pick is VERY important NOT to miss on. I want at least 3-4 CORE players on my team and "missing" (what I mean by that, is taking a player who either underperforms the spot or is impacted in trade value negatively when compared to those drafted around him) on one is a BIG deal IMO. That's the whole difference between Dynasty and REDRAFT - You have these players for a long time.

This hits on a point I'd like to discuss. Initial dynasty drafts. I'm of the opinion that the most difficult picks in initial dynasty drafts are rounds 2-4. In my current draft, a 16-team league, I made a bold move. I traded rounds 2,3 AND 4 for an early pick in the 1st round...who I used on Andre Johnson. Then I teamed him with my other 1st, Calvin Johnson, to give me a studly dynasty duo. Some thought I overpaid, but I think I'll get the last laugh. Why? Because of the problems with 3rd and 4th round players.

These rounds usually include the following categories:

1. Aging players with limited long-term value: Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Ryan Grant

2. Young, unproven players with question marks and unknown futures: Lesean McCoy, Knowshon, Felix Jones, Matt Forte.

3. QB's. I'm of the opinion that in 1 QB leagues, once you get past the first 3-4, then you might as well wait awhile for your QB.

If I had it to do over again, I'd do the same thing. In fact if I was ever going to be in another startup dynasty (I'm at 3, my limit right now), I'd try to do a similar move. Do all I can to move up and get 2 studs. Especially in a 16-team league (ppr), having Andre and Calvin is going to give me a huge advantage.

 

[Go deep]

Re: James jonesI think Jordy will wind up replacing driver. Better football player. James jones reeks of Bryant Johnson to me. I don't know that he'll be in gb after his contract is up.

I think Finley will be the biggest beneficiary, although i do think Jones is more likely to take over the #2 WR spot. Not so much based on talent, but skill set. Just seems he is better outside, and Nelson inside.

Being better outside or inside has little impact on whether or not a player starts for his team. No team is going to give an inferior player 300+ extra snaps over the course of a season simply because the superior option is best inside. Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Hines Ward, Steve Smith (NYG) and TJ Houshmandzadeh are just a few examples of players who served as their teams' primary slot receiver while still starting for their team. In fact, Donald Driver (who started all 16 games for the Packers last season) frequently moved inside when James Jones entered the game (and led the team snaps taken from the slot). That's not to say that James Jones won't win the starting position over Jordy Nelson. Rather, I simply mean to say that snaps will largely be determined based on talent level, not primary position.

I agree, if one guy is clearly more talented than the other. However, if its close, as i believe it is in this case, i think the edge would go to the guy who is better fit for that spot.

 

[SSOG]

####### and Beer gave up Wayne, Reggie IND WR Schmiden Theory gave up Avery, Donnie STL WR;Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR;Houshmandzadeh, T.J. SEA WR;Meachem, Robert NOS WRunfair trade?

No. While I'd strongly prefer one side, both sides could be easily defended.

 

[SSOG]

This hits on a point I'd like to discuss. Initial dynasty drafts. I'm of the opinion that the most difficult picks in initial dynasty drafts are rounds 2-4. In my current draft, a 16-team league, I made a bold move. I traded rounds 2,3 AND 4 for an early pick in the 1st round...who I used on Andre Johnson. Then I teamed him with my other 1st, Calvin Johnson, to give me a studly dynasty duo. Some thought I overpaid, but I think I'll get the last laugh. Why? Because of the problems with 3rd and 4th round players.These rounds usually include the following categories:1. Aging players with limited long-term value: Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Ryan Grant2. Young, unproven players with question marks and unknown futures: Lesean McCoy, Knowshon, Felix Jones, Matt Forte.3. QB's. I'm of the opinion that in 1 QB leagues, once you get past the first 3-4, then you might as well wait awhile for your QB.If I had it to do over again, I'd do the same thing. In fact if I was ever going to be in another startup dynasty (I'm at 3, my limit right now), I'd try to do a similar move. Do all I can to move up and get 2 studs. Especially in a 16-team league (ppr), having Andre and Calvin is going to give me a huge advantage.

I was about to say you overpaid, but I missed that it was a 16-team league. In a 16-teamer, I think that's a fine strategy. To put some numbers to those picks... assuming you had, say, the #8 overall pick, then the 2nd/3rd/4th would be #25, #40, and #57. In a 12-teamer, that would be pick 3.01, 4.04, and 5.09, which seems like a much more palatable price to pay for Andre Johnson. Based on the FBGs consensus dynasty rankings, that's Steve Smith South, Lesean McCoy, and Matt Forte for Andre Johnson. That's a trade that I would very likely make in my dynasty league.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

####### and Beer gave up Wayne, Reggie IND WR Schmiden Theory gave up Avery, Donnie STL WR;Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR;Houshmandzadeh, T.J. SEA WR;Meachem, Robert NOS WRunfair trade?

No. While I'd strongly prefer one side, both sides could be easily defended.

I would definitely prefer the Reggie Wayne side, but legit arguments can be made that Edwards and Meachem are top-20 talents.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Re: James jonesI think Jordy will wind up replacing driver. Better football player. James jones reeks of Bryant Johnson to me. I don't know that he'll be in gb after his contract is up.

FWIW, the knowledgeable Packers homers in this thread have consistently backed Jones over Nelson. Kitrick Taylor, who definitely has his finger on the pulse of the Pack, has come out strongly in favor of Jones.Jones reminds me of a poor man's Boldin (with the attendant nagging injuries).

 

[Redmen62]

Re: James jonesI think Jordy will wind up replacing driver. Better football player. James jones reeks of Bryant Johnson to me. I don't know that he'll be in gb after his contract is up.

FWIW, the knowledgeable Packers homers in this thread have consistently backed Jones over Nelson. Kitrick Taylor, who definitely has his finger on the pulse of the Pack, has come out strongly in favor of Jones.Jones reminds me of a poor man's Boldin (with the attendant nagging injuries).

I'm a Nelson owner, and still think Jones is the guy to have.

 

[EBF]

I couldn't DISAGREE more with that line of thinking. In DYNASTY, it is those types of decisions in start-ups and trades that can make or break you for YEARS. A SECOND RD START-UP pick is VERY important NOT to miss on. I want at least 3-4 CORE players on my team and "missing" (what I mean by that, is taking a player who either underperforms the spot or is impacted in trade value negatively when compared to those drafted around him) on one is a BIG deal IMO. That's the whole difference between Dynasty and REDRAFT - You have these players for a long time.

This hits on a point I'd like to discuss. Initial dynasty drafts. I'm of the opinion that the most difficult picks in initial dynasty drafts are rounds 2-4. In my current draft, a 16-team league, I made a bold move. I traded rounds 2,3 AND 4 for an early pick in the 1st round...who I used on Andre Johnson. Then I teamed him with my other 1st, Calvin Johnson, to give me a studly dynasty duo. Some thought I overpaid, but I think I'll get the last laugh. Why? Because of the problems with 3rd and 4th round players.

These rounds usually include the following categories:

1. Aging players with limited long-term value: Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Ryan Grant

2. Young, unproven players with question marks and unknown futures: Lesean McCoy, Knowshon, Felix Jones, Matt Forte.

3. QB's. I'm of the opinion that in 1 QB leagues, once you get past the first 3-4, then you might as well wait awhile for your QB.

If I had it to do over again, I'd do the same thing. In fact if I was ever going to be in another startup dynasty (I'm at 3, my limit right now), I'd try to do a similar move. Do all I can to move up and get 2 studs. Especially in a 16-team league (ppr), having Andre and Calvin is going to give me a huge advantage.

I'm all for adding difference makers to your team, but I don't necessarily buy into the quality > quantity theory when it comes to dynasty rosters. Depth is hugely important because of the inevitable injuries and underperformance that will strike your starting lineup. For this reason I might prefer a package of "good" players over a single elite player, even with the understanding that "good" players are much easier to come by. If anything, I usually advocate trading out of the first round when possible because I think the difference between the guys ranked 5-30 is exaggerated. The players you pick in rounds 2-4 should be starters for your team. Without looking at any recent drafts, I'm guessing that those picks could've netted you a trio like Michael Crabtree, Jahvid Best, and Tony Romo. I can't say that I would prefer Andre Johnson to that package.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Toying with some changes to the rankings and looking for some feedback. It will look something like this:

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Age: 26.9 | Contract: Thru 2014 | Value Score: 100

Talent + Age Rank: No. 1

WR Rank: No. 9

[Greg Jennings - 27.0, Donald Driver - 35.7, James Jones - 26.6, Jordy Nelson - 25.4]

TE Rank: No. 1

[Jermichael Finley - 23.6]

RB Rank: No. 16

[Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, James Starks]

OL Rank: No. 23

Coaches/Front Office: No. 9

Along with the change in rankings, I may also be forced to lose the Sons of the Tundra blog and focus more on using Rotoworld.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Toying with some changes to the rankings and looking for some feedback. It will look something like this:

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Age: 26.9 | Contract: Thru 2014 | Value Score: 100

Talent + Age Rank: No. 1

WR Rank: No. 9

[Greg Jennings - 27.0, Donald Driver - 35.7, James Jones - 26.6, Jordy Nelson - 25.4]

TE Rank: No. 1

[Jermichael Finley - 23.6]

RB Rank: No. 16

[Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, James Starks]

OL Rank: No. 23

Coaches/Front Office: No. 9

Along with the change in rankings, I may also be forced to lose the Sons of the Tundra blog and focus more on using Rotoworld.

Are you going to do this for every position?

So from your example above...with Ryan Grant have all of them below him as well?

 

[Redmen62]

Toying with some changes to the rankings and looking for some feedback. It will look something like this:

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Age: 26.9 | Contract: Thru 2014 | Value Score: 100

Talent + Age Rank: No. 1

WR Rank: No. 9

[Greg Jennings - 27.0, Donald Driver - 35.7, James Jones - 26.6, Jordy Nelson - 25.4]

TE Rank: No. 1

[Jermichael Finley - 23.6]

RB Rank: No. 16

[Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, James Starks]

OL Rank: No. 23

Coaches/Front Office: No. 9

Along with the change in rankings, I may also be forced to lose the Sons of the Tundra blog and focus more on using Rotoworld.

Are you going to do this for every position?

So from your example above...with Ryan Grant have all of them below him as well?

I always think that more information = better, but I suspect this might require more work than it may be worth. If you're already doing all those unit evaluations it's one thing, but I don't know if it's necessary to do them from scratch for this purpose.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I couldn't DISAGREE more with that line of thinking. In DYNASTY, it is those types of decisions in start-ups and trades that can make or break you for YEARS. A SECOND RD START-UP pick is VERY important NOT to miss on. I want at least 3-4 CORE players on my team and "missing" (what I mean by that, is taking a player who either underperforms the spot or is impacted in trade value negatively when compared to those drafted around him) on one is a BIG deal IMO. That's the whole difference between Dynasty and REDRAFT - You have these players for a long time.

This hits on a point I'd like to discuss. Initial dynasty drafts. I'm of the opinion that the most difficult picks in initial dynasty drafts are rounds 2-4. In my current draft, a 16-team league, I made a bold move. I traded rounds 2,3 AND 4 for an early pick in the 1st round...who I used on Andre Johnson. Then I teamed him with my other 1st, Calvin Johnson, to give me a studly dynasty duo. Some thought I overpaid, but I think I'll get the last laugh. Why? Because of the problems with 3rd and 4th round players.

These rounds usually include the following categories:

1. Aging players with limited long-term value: Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Ryan Grant

2. Young, unproven players with question marks and unknown futures: Lesean McCoy, Knowshon, Felix Jones, Matt Forte.

3. QB's. I'm of the opinion that in 1 QB leagues, once you get past the first 3-4, then you might as well wait awhile for your QB.

If I had it to do over again, I'd do the same thing. In fact if I was ever going to be in another startup dynasty (I'm at 3, my limit right now), I'd try to do a similar move. Do all I can to move up and get 2 studs. Especially in a 16-team league (ppr), having Andre and Calvin is going to give me a huge advantage.

I'm all for adding difference makers to your team, but I don't necessarily buy into the quality > quantity theory when it comes to dynasty rosters. Depth is hugely important because of the inevitable injuries and underperformance that will strike your starting lineup. For this reason I might prefer a package of "good" players over a single elite player, even with the understanding that "good" players are much easier to come by. If anything, I usually advocate trading out of the first round when possible because I think the difference between the guys ranked 5-30 is exaggerated. The players you pick in rounds 2-4 should be starters for your team. Without looking at any recent drafts, I'm guessing that those picks could've netted you a trio like Michael Crabtree, Jahvid Best, and Tony Romo. I can't say that I would prefer Andre Johnson to that package.

I agree with you here EBF.

I generally like to trade out of the first and then trade before a certain "drop off" I see in talent. But the reason I prefer quantity over quality is because in startup drafts it allows for more flexability.

In the above scenario....you have Calvin and AJ. Great....but you don't have another pick until the 5th round(in a 16 teamer is 6th round value) and you don't have a QB/RB/TE or WR3. So you will feel pressured to take guys that hit on those picks and more likely veterans to win now....which could lose out on in future years from lacking depth and/or youth.

However with trading down....you can take risks on players(like QB early, rookies, TE early, stacking a bunch of quality at RB or WR, etc) b/c you have the extra picks.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Toying with some changes to the rankings and looking for some feedback. It will look something like this:

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Age: 26.9 | Contract: Thru 2014 | Value Score: 100

Talent + Age Rank: No. 1

WR Rank: No. 9

[Greg Jennings - 27.0, Donald Driver - 35.7, James Jones - 26.6, Jordy Nelson - 25.4]

TE Rank: No. 1

[Jermichael Finley - 23.6]

RB Rank: No. 16

[Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, James Starks]

OL Rank: No. 23

Coaches/Front Office: No. 9

Along with the change in rankings, I may also be forced to lose the Sons of the Tundra blog and focus more on using Rotoworld.

Are you going to do this for every position?

So from your example above...with Ryan Grant have all of them below him as well?

I always think that more information = better, but I suspect this might require more work than it may be worth. If you're already doing all those unit evaluations it's one thing, but I don't know if it's necessary to do them from scratch for this purpose.

That's what I was going to point out....redundancy. Perhaps have a team link with each of those and then your normal positional breakdowns(I do look at them and appreciate them by the way).

 

[SSOG]

I agree with you here EBF.I generally like to trade out of the first and then trade before a certain "drop off" I see in talent. But the reason I prefer quantity over quality is because in startup drafts it allows for more flexability.In the above scenario....you have Calvin and AJ. Great....but you don't have another pick until the 5th round(in a 16 teamer is 6th round value) and you don't have a QB/RB/TE or WR3. So you will feel pressured to take guys that hit on those picks and more likely veterans to win now....which could lose out on in future years from lacking depth and/or youth. However with trading down....you can take risks on players(like QB early, rookies, TE early, stacking a bunch of quality at RB or WR, etc) b/c you have the extra picks.

Personally, I'd take the opposite tact- instead of taking veterans and trying to win now, I'd take young players. Your roster will have lots of holes in it, but it'll result in some nice rookie picks to fill those holes in the next year or two. Your first round uberstuds will still be uberstuds next year and the year after. Draft youth, play to win in year 2. At least, that's how I'd play it.

 

[Kree]

I couldn't DISAGREE more with that line of thinking. In DYNASTY, it is those types of decisions in start-ups and trades that can make or break you for YEARS. A SECOND RD START-UP pick is VERY important NOT to miss on. I want at least 3-4 CORE players on my team and "missing" (what I mean by that, is taking a player who either underperforms the spot or is impacted in trade value negatively when compared to those drafted around him) on one is a BIG deal IMO. That's the whole difference between Dynasty and REDRAFT - You have these players for a long time.

This hits on a point I'd like to discuss. Initial dynasty drafts. I'm of the opinion that the most difficult picks in initial dynasty drafts are rounds 2-4. In my current draft, a 16-team league, I made a bold move. I traded rounds 2,3 AND 4 for an early pick in the 1st round...who I used on Andre Johnson. Then I teamed him with my other 1st, Calvin Johnson, to give me a studly dynasty duo. Some thought I overpaid, but I think I'll get the last laugh. Why? Because of the problems with 3rd and 4th round players.

These rounds usually include the following categories:

1. Aging players with limited long-term value: Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Ryan Grant

2. Young, unproven players with question marks and unknown futures: Lesean McCoy, Knowshon, Felix Jones, Matt Forte.

3. QB's. I'm of the opinion that in 1 QB leagues, once you get past the first 3-4, then you might as well wait awhile for your QB.

If I had it to do over again, I'd do the same thing. In fact if I was ever going to be in another startup dynasty (I'm at 3, my limit right now), I'd try to do a similar move. Do all I can to move up and get 2 studs. Especially in a 16-team league (ppr), having Andre and Calvin is going to give me a huge advantage.

I'm all for adding difference makers to your team, but I don't necessarily buy into the quality > quantity theory when it comes to dynasty rosters. Depth is hugely important because of the inevitable injuries and underperformance that will strike your starting lineup. For this reason I might prefer a package of "good" players over a single elite player, even with the understanding that "good" players are much easier to come by. If anything, I usually advocate trading out of the first round when possible because I think the difference between the guys ranked 5-30 is exaggerated. The players you pick in rounds 2-4 should be starters for your team. Without looking at any recent drafts, I'm guessing that those picks could've netted you a trio like Michael Crabtree, Jahvid Best, and Tony Romo. I can't say that I would prefer Andre Johnson to that package.

This is the sort of thing I am struggling with atm, in an attempted trade for Wells for Felix/Barber/Harrison. I would pretty much be upgrading depth (only 2 RBs REQUIRED with 3 other flex spots) as I already have Mendenhall and Rice (And probably Stewart whom I am trading for in return for my 1.02) and the flex spots are pretty much covered to a degree (PPR, at WR I have Jennings, White, DeSean, MSW, Nicks, Garcon). I like Felix but Wells is a stud to me, but the problem comes with the other pieces. I see the same possible upside to Felix as I do Wells, with only % of difference in terms of chance of that happening, and it's making the trade difficult to process. I'm killing good depth, which is important when Wells is still a ??? in all fairness, and also giving up a good quality youngster in Felix. By giving up the 2nd, 3rd and 4th you ARE giving up good young depth at the minimum. I don't mind the trade, but it's approximate impact on your positional drafting will be difficult to make up I reckon unless you have a very solid draft. Alas, if you're making those sorts of trades, you obviously believe in yourself . Whether that means going QB next asap and then trying to get some okay refuse at RB, I don't know.

Would be interested to see how the rest of your draft went

 

[Fighting Noles]

Toying with some changes to the rankings and looking for some feedback. It will look something like this:

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Age: 26.9 | Contract: Thru 2014 | Value Score: 100

Talent + Age Rank: No. 1

WR Rank: No. 9

[Greg Jennings - 27.0, Donald Driver - 35.7, James Jones - 26.6, Jordy Nelson - 25.4]

TE Rank: No. 1

[Jermichael Finley - 23.6]

RB Rank: No. 16

[Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, James Starks]

OL Rank: No. 23

Coaches/Front Office: No. 9

Along with the change in rankings, I may also be forced to lose the Sons of the Tundra blog and focus more on using Rotoworld.

Are you going to do this for every position?

So from your example above...with Ryan Grant have all of them below him as well?

I always think that more information = better, but I suspect this might require more work than it may be worth. If you're already doing all those unit evaluations it's one thing, but I don't know if it's necessary to do them from scratch for this purpose.

That's what I was going to point out....redundancy. Perhaps have a team link with each of those and then your normal positional breakdowns(I do look at them and appreciate them by the way).

I am for WHATEVER keeps the BLOG RANKINGS OPEN Chris.....If this extra work forces the elimination of the blog (ie: only ROTOWORLD Rankings - And aren't those top 200 only or would you be ranking each position there) then I am against it (LOL), since I truly enjoy the blog/rankings.

 

[Instinctive]

Too many quotes!!!!! Alogn the lines of whethe ror not one should trade into/out of the 1st in dynasty start ups, here's my 2 cents for ya, EBF/Benson/Shader/SSOG

I think the best plan in that situation is to get multiple WRs with the 1st rounders---I'd take Fitz/Calvin because of age considerations, if possible, and then take the best QB I could as early as I could, unless the whole top tier is gone. Then I'd keep going WR or top IDP (if there is IDP) and TE...screw the RB position for now.

Then get QBs like Eli, Kolb, Leinart, Henne, Stafford, Freeman ---I'd try to get 3 of them. At this point, I have a bunch of wideouts, some great QB future, hopefully a nice TE, and absolutely nothing at RB.

Suck for a year. Trade all non first round picks with a guy you managed to get lucky with for another first. Use yours (probably 1.01) and the other to get 2 starting RBs. (This year's example would be Best and Mathews)

It's a strategy that works, 2 years ago I took over a dynasty with junk everywhere, and Calvin. I managed to trade any and all RB pieces, draft Donald Brown and Chris Wells and Michael Crabtree, and then suck again...an extra year, but the initial drafter had done absolutely horrible.

Now the roster is: Sidney Rice, Roddy White, Crabtree, Dez Bryant, Wells, rotation at RB2, Rivers, Celek.

TE went from Marcedes Lewis to Celek.

QB from Hasselbeck to Rivers

WR: Calvin and Miles Austin became Crabtree/Dez/Sidney (all from Calvin) and Roddy/a piece used to get Rivers

The point is, this is now a championship caliber team. Utter dominance at WR over all but one other team (AJ/VJax/Fitz good god) because everybody else has one stud there. A top 5 QB. And all because my two years of first rounders were 1.01 and 1.02, and I was able to trade guys like Calvin for a top 3 pick, a top 8 pick, and another top 3 pick.

WIDE RECEIVERS are always the position you want to dominate at. And don't underestimate having a good QB. If you get the best wideouts and QBs, you can get to the playoffs and maybe have Jerome Harrison there and ready to go off. Or Ryan Grant. Or Nick Goings.........you get the point

 

[Dr. Evil]

Toying with some changes to the rankings and looking for some feedback. It will look something like this:

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Age: 26.9 | Contract: Thru 2014 | Value Score: 100

Talent + Age Rank: No. 1

WR Rank: No. 9

[Greg Jennings - 27.0, Donald Driver - 35.7, James Jones - 26.6, Jordy Nelson - 25.4]

TE Rank: No. 1

[Jermichael Finley - 23.6]

RB Rank: No. 16

[Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, James Starks]

OL Rank: No. 23

Coaches/Front Office: No. 9

Along with the change in rankings, I may also be forced to lose the Sons of the Tundra blog and focus more on using Rotoworld.

Are you going to do this for every position?

So from your example above...with Ryan Grant have all of them below him as well?

I always think that more information = better, but I suspect this might require more work than it may be worth. If you're already doing all those unit evaluations it's one thing, but I don't know if it's necessary to do them from scratch for this purpose.

That's what I was going to point out....redundancy. Perhaps have a team link with each of those and then your normal positional breakdowns(I do look at them and appreciate them by the way).

I am for WHATEVER keeps the BLOG RANKINGS OPEN Chris.....If this extra work forces the elimination of the blog (ie: only ROTOWORLD Rankings - And aren't those top 200 only or would you be ranking each position there) then I am against it (LOL), since I truly enjoy the blog/rankings.

 

[Lash]

Plus, on the "knucklehead" front, if this was Marshall "holding out" I can guarantee you it would be MUCH MORE of a "concern" to you & others. But it seems that since you like VJAX the contract situation, suspension (DUI's), etc. are "no big deal" & just part of the normal NFL bargaining process (the CJ & Revis situations aren't the SAME, since both were first RD talent & considered the BEST @ their respective positions, & much more valuable to their teams IMO). Maybe SD management doesn't feel the same & those things do matter to them when figuring in a player in their long term plans.

I've thought about this for a while and realized that you're absolutely right. I've reached a decision that Marshall is a knucklehead (a very educated and well-informed decision, and a decision that I won't back off of in the slightest- if Marshall isn't a knucklehead, then no one on this entire planet is). With that said, since I've made that decision already, I'm predisposed towards viewing everything through that particular prism. If Marshall was holding out, I would absolutely hold it up as further evidence of his knuckleheadedness. That would be a mistake on my part, though. Holdouts don't make people knuckleheaded, they just serve as a reminder to the casual fan that what to us is entertainment to the players is a job. If I felt that I was undercompensated, I would do what I had to to bring my compensation back up in line with what my skills merited. That doesn't make me a knucklehead, that doesn't make Vincent Jackson a knucklehead, and it wouldn't make Brandon Marshall a knucklehead, either. Which isn't to say that Marshall wouldn't still be a knucklehead for various other reasons.

Have you guys discussed James Jones yet?

With the 35 year old Donald Driver having bilateral knee surgery this offseason I think he is one of THE players to get right now.

I have him stashed and am loving it!

James Jones is one of the biggest headaches on my entire roster. Every 2 months or so somebody brings up a James Jones vs. Jordy Nelson discussion, and every 2 months I try to come up with something intelligent or educated to say on the battle... but at the end of the day, it really just beats the ever-living @&*% out of me. I've got no freaking clue which of the two is going to be the guy who steps up when Driver steps down. I don't think anybody does. I question whether the GB coaches even do. I'm pretty sure it's going to be one of those two, so I've just acquired both and then locked their roster spots and put them into hibernation. In a year or two we'll find out who the victor was, but in the meantime I'm just burning two roster spots to secure one NFL position (GBWR2).I also went out and acquired Finley this offseason as a hedge in case Green Bay turns into the northern version of the Owens and Witten show in Dallas. I'd hate to have burned both of those roster spots for 3+ years to walk away with nothing.

me too SSOG and what will royally suck is when Green Bay picks one of those elite 2011 WRs LOL while I've burned away 3+ years of rostering both Nelson/Jones waiting on Driver to retire

 

[SSOG]

By giving up the 2nd, 3rd and 4th you ARE giving up good young depth at the minimum. I don't mind the trade, but it's approximate impact on your positional drafting will be difficult to make up I reckon unless you have a very solid draft. Alas, if you're making those sorts of trades, you obviously believe in yourself . Whether that means going QB next asap and then trying to get some okay refuse at RB, I don't know.

I don't think that's necessarily the case at all. In fact, top picks are much more valuable to you if you don't believe in yourself because they're much harder to screw up. The easiest pick in any rookie draft is pick 1.01. If someone was worried about getting a bunch of Slatons and Barbers in rounds 2, 3, or 4 I could see them packaging to take the "sure thing" in Andre Johnson.