Dynasty Rankings (6 Viewers)

[benm3218]

How is my argument coming full circle? The SR% you are using is not adjusted - it is a basic stat.

It's not very basic if the two sites define it differently :dizzy:

If your argument is that, in a vacuum, Rice has as many "successful" plays as McCoy and Peterson, then you are right. But Peterson and McCoy are doing more with their plays than Rice is.

True. If our sample size is 2010.

Why use Tiki Barber? His career is far from the standard in term of trajectory, he is simply an anomaly. If you want to invest stock in players having that kind of growth, later in their careers, be my guest. I find no logic in it, however.

The argument talks to the value of yardage-heavy RBs who don't regularly get goalline. Why wouldn't Tiki be the first name that came to mind? He had < 5 TDs in years after he broke out. The fact that Rice is (probably) having one shouldn't be a shock to the system.Curtis Martin, Fred Taylor, I could point to a lot more near-HOF (or better) quality RBs who had assorted bad TD years in the middle of their careers.

The problem being that we don't know (and I personally don't think) Rice is a near-HOF (or better) quality RB capable of being a top 10 RB on a regular basis, without more TDs. Because others have means nothing to Rice, unless he is also as capable. My eyes and stats suggest that he is not. He is a good NFL talent in a good situation. Because he is 23, I can see putting him top 10. But top 5 is reserved for players I feel are capable of finishing at or close to RB5 regularly. I think the top 5 are pretty set in stone and Rice is not a good enough player to crack that list, unless something drastic happens: ADP, CJ, MJD, AF, JC.

I agree with your top 5... My world is spinning.

 

[thehornet]

I dont understand. How are basic stats flawed? These the year to date stats.keep in mind, this has been a down yar for rice and an up year for charles and still Charles stats are only marginally better.I personally disagree that Charles is more likely to get you 2 crucial yards over rice.

All stats are flawed, but basic stats do nothing to attempt to correct it: 100 yards on 20 carries against the Cards are represented as equal to 100 yards on 20 carries against the Steelers; in some cases, 100 yards on 40 carries are equal to 100 yards on 10 carries. Essentially, advanced flaws do more to separate the Mike Andersons from the Clinton Portises. Honestly, my understanding of advanced stats is not such that I can explain them easily. I would suggest going to one of the sites and reading more about the stats. There is some really interesting information, especially when it goes into winning percentages: how much a players impact affects wins and losses. Charles stats are not marginally better. Charles helps his team win more and does much more each time he touches the ball.

I think you are attempting to use sabermetrics to determine if one player does more to help his team win games. However the two concenpts are mutually exclusive. Saying Charles helps his team win more because his YPC are higher THIS year does not mean he is more effective in helping his team win games. His per rush stats are better which you could infer helps gain first downs more often. this makes sense but it doesnt mean his contributions have more of a meningful effect on the outcome of a game. Rice has been astonishingly effecient since taking over lead back duties last year. Another point you are missing here is that the two backs have been used quite diffferntly throughout their NFL careers. Rice is a grinder and picks up tough yards. Many of the plays called for him are meant to move the chains 3 or 4 yards which hurts his ypc. Charles on the other hand is used in myriad different interesting packages. He is out on the perimeter often and a lot of the time Jones is on the inside grinding. Also, how do you explain Rice's contributions in the receiving and blocking aspects of his game? He is far superior in blocking and he has over double the receiving production over the past two years. Do you account for this stuff? Lastly, basic stats are not flawed. They are just that. Aggregate numbers are a healthy determination of what average production you can assume when drafting a fantasy team. Sure Rice is down this year but it shouldnt be used as a sign of things to come. he is still a highly elusive young back, only getting better on a strong running team.

 

[Go deep]

How is my argument coming full circle? The SR% you are using is not adjusted - it is a basic stat.

It's not very basic if the two sites define it differently :dizzy:

If your argument is that, in a vacuum, Rice has as many "successful" plays as McCoy and Peterson, then you are right. But Peterson and McCoy are doing more with their plays than Rice is.

True. If our sample size is 2010.

Why use Tiki Barber? His career is far from the standard in term of trajectory, he is simply an anomaly. If you want to invest stock in players having that kind of growth, later in their careers, be my guest. I find no logic in it, however.

The argument talks to the value of yardage-heavy RBs who don't regularly get goalline. Why wouldn't Tiki be the first name that came to mind? He had < 5 TDs in years after he broke out. The fact that Rice is (probably) having one shouldn't be a shock to the system.Curtis Martin, Fred Taylor, I could point to a lot more near-HOF (or better) quality RBs who had assorted bad TD years in the middle of their careers.

The problem being that we don't know (and I personally don't think) Rice is a near-HOF (or better) quality RB capable of being a top 10 RB on a regular basis, without more TDs. Because others have means nothing to Rice, unless he is also as capable. My eyes and stats suggest that he is not. He is a good NFL talent in a good situation. Because he is 23, I can see putting him top 10. But top 5 is reserved for players I feel are capable of finishing at or close to RB5 regularly. I think the top 5 are pretty set in stone and Rice is not a good enough player to crack that list, unless something drastic happens: ADP, CJ, MJD, AF, JC.

Rice is a very good RB, but i think it is far too early to call Rice a near HOF'er. I still think he is a low end RB1 in dynasty leagues, but he is not a top 5 RB. I think he belongs down near Amhad Bradshaw, and Rashard Mendenhall(who is a player i think is overvalued in dynasty leagues too, but thats a whole different sublect).

Also, so much for the low BMI guys from the 2008 draft, 3 of them are arguably top 5 dynasty RB's(CJ, Charles and Mcfadden). Im still amazed how many good RB's came out of that class. They make up half of my top 18 RB's.

 

[thehornet]

How is my argument coming full circle? The SR% you are using is not adjusted - it is a basic stat.

It's not very basic if the two sites define it differently :dizzy:

If your argument is that, in a vacuum, Rice has as many "successful" plays as McCoy and Peterson, then you are right. But Peterson and McCoy are doing more with their plays than Rice is.

True. If our sample size is 2010.

Why use Tiki Barber? His career is far from the standard in term of trajectory, he is simply an anomaly. If you want to invest stock in players having that kind of growth, later in their careers, be my guest. I find no logic in it, however.

The argument talks to the value of yardage-heavy RBs who don't regularly get goalline. Why wouldn't Tiki be the first name that came to mind? He had < 5 TDs in years after he broke out. The fact that Rice is (probably) having one shouldn't be a shock to the system.Curtis Martin, Fred Taylor, I could point to a lot more near-HOF (or better) quality RBs who had assorted bad TD years in the middle of their careers.

The problem being that we don't know (and I personally don't think) Rice is a near-HOF (or better) quality RB capable of being a top 10 RB on a regular basis, without more TDs. Because others have means nothing to Rice, unless he is also as capable. My eyes and stats suggest that he is not. He is a good NFL talent in a good situation. Because he is 23, I can see putting him top 10. But top 5 is reserved for players I feel are capable of finishing at or close to RB5 regularly. I think the top 5 are pretty set in stone and Rice is not a good enough player to crack that list, unless something drastic happens: ADP, CJ, MJD, AF, JC.

Let us know when Charles goes over 2000 yards from scrimmage in one season, k?

 

[Go deep]

I dont understand. How are basic stats flawed? These the year to date stats.keep in mind, this has been a down yar for rice and an up year for charles and still Charles stats are only marginally better.I personally disagree that Charles is more likely to get you 2 crucial yards over rice.

All stats are flawed, but basic stats do nothing to attempt to correct it: 100 yards on 20 carries against the Cards are represented as equal to 100 yards on 20 carries against the Steelers; in some cases, 100 yards on 40 carries are equal to 100 yards on 10 carries. Essentially, advanced flaws do more to separate the Mike Andersons from the Clinton Portises. Honestly, my understanding of advanced stats is not such that I can explain them easily. I would suggest going to one of the sites and reading more about the stats. There is some really interesting information, especially when it goes into winning percentages: how much a players impact affects wins and losses. Charles stats are not marginally better. Charles helps his team win more and does much more each time he touches the ball.

Another point you are missing here is that the two backs have been used quite diffferntly throughout their NFL careers. Rice is a grinder and picks up tough yards. Many of the plays called for him are meant to move the chains 3 or 4 yards which hurts his ypc. Charles on the other hand is used in myriad different interesting packages. He is out on the perimeter often and a lot of the time Jones is on the inside grinding.

I think both backs are used almost the same. How is using a RB when the team needs 3 or 4 yards bad for a RB, and do you have actual statistics that prove Rice does this and Charles does not? Either way, neither back is used alot in short yardgae situations and both backs get most of the 3rd down work.

 

[Concept Coop]

Let us know when Charles goes over 2000 yards from scrimmage in one season, k?

He was on pace to do it, over the second half of the season last year. But I will remember to send you a PM when he does it.

 

[thehornet]

I dont understand. How are basic stats flawed? These the year to date stats.keep in mind, this has been a down yar for rice and an up year for charles and still Charles stats are only marginally better.I personally disagree that Charles is more likely to get you 2 crucial yards over rice.

All stats are flawed, but basic stats do nothing to attempt to correct it: 100 yards on 20 carries against the Cards are represented as equal to 100 yards on 20 carries against the Steelers; in some cases, 100 yards on 40 carries are equal to 100 yards on 10 carries. Essentially, advanced flaws do more to separate the Mike Andersons from the Clinton Portises. Honestly, my understanding of advanced stats is not such that I can explain them easily. I would suggest going to one of the sites and reading more about the stats. There is some really interesting information, especially when it goes into winning percentages: how much a players impact affects wins and losses. Charles stats are not marginally better. Charles helps his team win more and does much more each time he touches the ball.

Another point you are missing here is that the two backs have been used quite diffferntly throughout their NFL careers. Rice is a grinder and picks up tough yards. Many of the plays called for him are meant to move the chains 3 or 4 yards which hurts his ypc. Charles on the other hand is used in myriad different interesting packages. He is out on the perimeter often and a lot of the time Jones is on the inside grinding.

I think both backs are used almost the same. How is using a RB when the team needs 3 or 4 yards bad for a RB, and do you have actual statistics that prove Rice does this and Charles does not? Either way, neither back is used alot in short yardgae situations and both backs get most of the 3rd down work.

I wish I had the work each has done and on wahat downs. I know Rice is averaging over 5 more carries per game becuase he isused in grinder spots. Also, I know Jones is used often in short situations a lot more ofte than McGahee.

 

[Go deep]

Let us know when Charles goes over 2000 yards from scrimmage in one season, k?

In his last 16 games, Charles has 2121 total yards.

 

[The Man With No Name]

I dont understand. How are basic stats flawed? These the year to date stats.keep in mind, this has been a down yar for rice and an up year for charles and still Charles stats are only marginally better.I personally disagree that Charles is more likely to get you 2 crucial yards over rice.

All stats are flawed, but basic stats do nothing to attempt to correct it: 100 yards on 20 carries against the Cards are represented as equal to 100 yards on 20 carries against the Steelers; in some cases, 100 yards on 40 carries are equal to 100 yards on 10 carries. Essentially, advanced flaws do more to separate the Mike Andersons from the Clinton Portises. Honestly, my understanding of advanced stats is not such that I can explain them easily. I would suggest going to one of the sites and reading more about the stats. There is some really interesting information, especially when it goes into winning percentages: how much a players impact affects wins and losses. Charles stats are not marginally better. Charles helps his team win more and does much more each time he touches the ball.

Another point you are missing here is that the two backs have been used quite diffferntly throughout their NFL careers. Rice is a grinder and picks up tough yards. Many of the plays called for him are meant to move the chains 3 or 4 yards which hurts his ypc. Charles on the other hand is used in myriad different interesting packages. He is out on the perimeter often and a lot of the time Jones is on the inside grinding.

I think both backs are used almost the same. How is using a RB when the team needs 3 or 4 yards bad for a RB, and do you have actual statistics that prove Rice does this and Charles does not? Either way, neither back is used alot in short yardgae situations and both backs get most of the 3rd down work.

When needing 3 or 4 yards-Charles--12 rushes for 44 yards, 3 1st downs, 1 touchdown.Rice------15 rushes for 52 yards, 9 1st downs, 0 touchdowns

 

[thehornet]

Let us know when Charles goes over 2000 yards from scrimmage in one season, k?

In his last 16 games, Charles has 2121 total yards.

one season. But look, I don't want to bicker. I think Charles is excellent. I just feel that Rice is being downplayed here. He is a fantastic talent and still deserves mention with the top backs in the league.

 

[Go deep]

Let us know when Charles goes over 2000 yards from scrimmage in one season, k?

In his last 16 games, Charles has 2121 total yards.

one season. But look, I don't want to bicker. I think Charles is excellent. I just feel that Rice is being downplayed here. He is a fantastic talent and still deserves mention with the top backs in the league.

OK, he is likely to do it this season, and had almost 1500 last season and didnt see more than 6 carries until week 10. Either way, both players are very good, i just think Charles is a little better.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think you are attempting to use sabermetrics to determine if one player does more to help his team win games. However the two concenpts are mutually exclusive. Saying Charles helps his team win more because his YPC are higher THIS year does not mean he is more effective in helping his team win games. His per rush stats are better which you could infer helps gain first downs more often. this makes sense but it doesnt mean his contributions have more of a meningful effect on the outcome of a game. Rice has been astonishingly effecient since taking over lead back duties last year. Another point you are missing here is that the two backs have been used quite diffferntly throughout their NFL careers. Rice is a grinder and picks up tough yards. Many of the plays called for him are meant to move the chains 3 or 4 yards which hurts his ypc. Charles on the other hand is used in myriad different interesting packages. He is out on the perimeter often and a lot of the time Jones is on the inside grinding. Also, how do you explain Rice's contributions in the receiving and blocking aspects of his game? He is far superior in blocking and he has over double the receiving production over the past two years. Do you account for this stuff? Lastly, basic stats are not flawed. They are just that. Aggregate numbers are a healthy determination of what average production you can assume when drafting a fantasy team. Sure Rice is down this year but it shouldnt be used as a sign of things to come. he is still a highly elusive young back, only getting better on a strong running team.

You are not understanding the advanced metrics, which clearly takes winning games into the equation. These guys chart every single play and determine if it put the team in a better position to win or not. It is not a simple YPC. While I feel I do understand it, admittedly, not well enough to explain in any detail. Rice was efficient last year, not this year, and Charles is the most efficient back in the NFL, per play. Look at the stats and the formulas and then talk to me. Don't tell me the stats don't mean anything when you don't understand them. Granted, there is no tangible number to calculate how well a person blocks into the equation, but it absolutely takes receiving plays into account. In fact, receptions alone, Charles is still more efficient and does more with each touch. I find it ironic that you claim base stats are not flawed, but advanced stats are. Again, not to be rude at all, but you don't understand the advanced stats (not that you can't, you just need to read up on them, like I needed to before I did), so I don't know how to have a conversation about this with you, until you do. Lastly, Rice is not getting better. If you want to you the simple stats you claim pure, he is getting worse. A lot worse. I also find it interested that people are ready and willing to write of an average season as "one bad year" but defend last season as more than an anomaly of equal proportions. In other words, his good season is valid and his average season is a fluke, in your eyes and I don't get it.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Rice is a very good RB, but i think it is far too early to call Rice a near HOF'er.

Missed where anyone said this. My point was to show that RBs have anomalies in TD production. Part of Coop's argument is that Rice's TD production this year is what we should expect going forward (paraphrasing) "good luck with long TDs, his longest rush this year is 30 yards" and "he is bad at goalline". If Tiki can have a bad TD year in the middle of his RB1 run, it can't be a shock to the system if Rice does. If you think 3 to 5 TDs per year is what we can expect from Rice going forward, then you should downgrade him a lot more than #8 to #12 range.

I think he belongs down near Amhad Bradshaw, and Rashard Mendenhall(who is a player i think is overvalued in dynasty leagues too, but thats a whole different sublect).

I would still rather have Rice than Bradshaw and Mendenhall despite their better production this year.

 

[Concept Coop]

When needing 3 or 4 yards-Charles--12 rushes for 44 yards, 3 1st downs, 1 touchdown.Rice------15 rushes for 52 yards, 9 1st downs, 0 touchdowns

Can I ask where you found these? These are valuable and I would love to see them adjusted to find a Value Over Replacement. Thanks!

 

[Concept Coop]

I wish I had the work each has done and on wahat downs. I know Rice is averaging over 5 more carries per game becuase he isused in grinder spots. Also, I know Jones is used often in short situations a lot more ofte than McGahee.

DVOA, DVAP and SR% (combination) spell all of that out. Check out advancednflstats and football-reference.

 

[thehornet]

I think you are attempting to use sabermetrics to determine if one player does more to help his team win games. However the two concenpts are mutually exclusive. Saying Charles helps his team win more because his YPC are higher THIS year does not mean he is more effective in helping his team win games. His per rush stats are better which you could infer helps gain first downs more often. this makes sense but it doesnt mean his contributions have more of a meningful effect on the outcome of a game. Rice has been astonishingly effecient since taking over lead back duties last year. Another point you are missing here is that the two backs have been used quite diffferntly throughout their NFL careers. Rice is a grinder and picks up tough yards. Many of the plays called for him are meant to move the chains 3 or 4 yards which hurts his ypc. Charles on the other hand is used in myriad different interesting packages. He is out on the perimeter often and a lot of the time Jones is on the inside grinding. Also, how do you explain Rice's contributions in the receiving and blocking aspects of his game? He is far superior in blocking and he has over double the receiving production over the past two years. Do you account for this stuff? Lastly, basic stats are not flawed. They are just that. Aggregate numbers are a healthy determination of what average production you can assume when drafting a fantasy team. Sure Rice is down this year but it shouldnt be used as a sign of things to come. he is still a highly elusive young back, only getting better on a strong running team.

You are not understanding the advanced metrics, which clearly takes winning games into the equation. These guys chart every single play and determine if it put the team in a better position to win or not. It is not a simple YPC. While I feel I do understand it, admittedly, not well enough to explain in any detail. Rice was efficient last year, not this year, and Charles is the most efficient back in the NFL, per play. Look at the stats and the formulas and then talk to me. Don't tell me the stats don't mean anything when you don't understand them. Granted, there is no tangible number to calculate how well a person blocks into the equation, but it absolutely takes receiving plays into account. In fact, receptions alone, Charles is still more efficient and does more with each touch. I find it ironic that you claim base stats are not flawed, but advanced stats are. Again, not to be rude at all, but you don't understand the advanced stats (not that you can't, you just need to read up on them, like I needed to before I did), so I don't know how to have a conversation about this with you, until you do. Lastly, Rice is not getting better. If you want to you the simple stats you claim pure, he is getting worse. A lot worse. I also find it interested that people are ready and willing to write of an average season as "one bad year" but defend last season as more than an anomaly of equal proportions. In other words, his good season is valid and his average season is a fluke, in your eyes and I don't get it.

What are you talking about? I never said either advanced or base line stats are flawed. You did. I understand both and I dont see a lot of merit in sabermetrics in the sport of football. This isn't baseball. Individual performance means far less in football than baseball and individual stats need to be examined that way as well. We play fantasy football so basic stats are all that matter. I don't understand how you do not understand this very simple concept coop. I am a huge fan of sabermetrics on baseball, an arena where they are actually applicable and hold merit. Football has so many outlier factors and the very essence of each play is built upon the premise that a unit (team) is working together.

 

[thehornet]

I wish I had the work each has done and on wahat downs. I know Rice is averaging over 5 more carries per game becuase he isused in grinder spots. Also, I know Jones is used often in short situations a lot more ofte than McGahee.

DVOA, DVAP and SR% (combination) spell all of that out. Check out advancednflstats and football-reference.

Thanks. I am into situational stats for football. These mean something. Sabermetrics in football to gauge future production are at its best mere guesses and at its worst, flat out inaccurate.

 

[Concept Coop]

talking about? I never said either advanced or base line stats are flawed. You did. I understand both and I dont see a lot of merit in sabermetrics in the sport of football. This isn't baseball. Individual performance means far less in football than baseball and individual stats need to be examined that way as well. We play fantasy football so basic stats are all that matter. I don't understand how you do not understand this very simple concept coop. I am a huge fan of sabermetrics on baseball, an arena where they are actually applicable and hold merit. Football has so many outlier factors and the very essence of each play is built upon the premise that a unit (team) is working together.

You are writing off the stats before you even understand what they are. I know you don't understand what they are, or which I am talking about. If you have no interest in them, fine by me. I think you can do well without them. But I don't think it is logical - at the very least - to tell me they are wrong before understanding them. I know they are more useful in baseball, I do. But I am not going to write them off because they offer me great value. Basic stats are all that matter on game day. But if that is all you are going to use to project future numbers, all you need to do is sort a stat list. Actually, if that is all you are going to use, you should have Matt Forte ahead of Ray Rice and there would be no need for conversation.

 

[thehornet]

talking about? I never said either advanced or base line stats are flawed. You did. I understand both and I dont see a lot of merit in sabermetrics in the sport of football. This isn't baseball. Individual performance means far less in football than baseball and individual stats need to be examined that way as well. We play fantasy football so basic stats are all that matter. I don't understand how you do not understand this very simple concept coop. I am a huge fan of sabermetrics on baseball, an arena where they are actually applicable and hold merit. Football has so many outlier factors and the very essence of each play is built upon the premise that a unit (team) is working together.

You are writing off the stats before you even understand what they are. I know you don't understand what they are, or which I am talking about. If you have no interest in them, fine by me. I think you can do well without them. But I don't think it is logical - at the very least - to tell me they are wrong before understanding them. I know they are more useful in baseball, I do. But I am not going to write them off because they offer me great value. Basic stats are all that matter on game day. But if that is all you are going to use to project future numbers, all you need to do is sort a stat list. Actually, if that is all you are going to use, you should have Matt Forte ahead of Ray Rice and there would be no need for conversation.

Fair enough, man. i do understand them, i just dont think they mean anything here in predicting future performance. See my above post. It's all about situational stats in football.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I also find it interested that people are ready and willing to write of an average season as "one bad year" but defend last season as more than an anomaly of equal proportions. In other words, his good season is valid and his average season is a fluke, in your eyes and I don't get it.

It would be different if McGahee looked good. McGahee had 5 YPC last year and 3.5 this year. Did both RBs lose a step at the same time? Losing Jared Gaither for the year might be part of it. Oher has been less consistent at LT, and they moved the RG to RT. 3 guys playing essentially out of position. LeSean McCoy had 0 TDs and averaged 3.0 YPC the 2 games Jason Peters was out at LT for the Eagles. For what it's worth.

 

[OddibeMcD]

QB rankings for a start 2-QB league (less emphasis on top-5 potential, more on top 15 production)

Tier 1:

1) Philip Rivers

2) Aaron Rodgers

3) Michael Vick

4) Tony Romo

5) Drew Brees

6) Ben Roethlisberger

Tier 2:

7) Tom Brady

8) Peyton Manning

9) Joe Flacco

10) Josh Freeman

11) Matt Ryan

12) Sam Bradford

Tier 3:

13) Eli Manning

14) Matt Schaub

15) Mark Sanchez

16) Matt Cassell

17) Jay Cutler

Tier 4:

18) Matthew Stafford

19) Kyle Orton

20) Kevin Kolb

21) Donovan McNabb

22) Ryan Fitzpatrick

Tier 5:

23) John Skelton

24) David Garrard

25) Alex Smith

26) Colt McCoy

27) Tim Tebow

28) Jason Campbell

29) Vince Young

30) Chad Henne

Tier 6:

31) Tavaris Jackson

32) Carson Palmer

33) Dennis Dixon

34) Josh Johnson

35) Charlie Whitehurst

36) Joe Webb

Tier 7:

37) Matt Hasselbeck

38) Jimmy Clausen

39) Seneca Wallace

40) Tyler Thigpen

41) Shaun Hill

42) Troy Smith

43) Jon Kitna

44) Brodie Croyle

Assorted trash

Drew Stanton

Matt Flynn

Derek Anderson

Bruce Gradkowski

Max Hall

Tyler Palko

Caleb Hanie

Luke McCown

Brian St. Pierre

Chad Pennington

Kyle Boller

Rex Grossman

Billy Volek

Matt Moore

Chase Daniel

Marc Bulger

Trent Edwards

Kerry Collins

Todd Bouman

AJ Feeley

Matt Leinart

Jordan Palmer

Jake Delhomme

Tony Pike

Mark Brunell

Charlie Batch

Brett Favre

 

[Concept Coop]

I also find it interested that people are ready and willing to write of an average season as "one bad year" but defend last season as more than an anomaly of equal proportions. In other words, his good season is valid and his average season is a fluke, in your eyes and I don't get it.

It would be different if McGahee looked good. McGahee had 5 YPC last year and 3.5 this year. Did both RBs lose a step at the same time? Losing Jared Gaither for the year might be part of it. Oher has been less consistent at LT, and they moved the RG to RT. 3 guys playing essentially out of position. LeSean McCoy had 0 TDs and averaged 3.0 YPC the 2 games Jason Peters was out at LT for the Eagles. For what it's worth.

I don't think anyone is suggesting Rice has lost a step. And I think taking the Gaither injury into the equation is smart - I think you should consider everything. But if we are giving Rice a pass, we would have a long line of others with poor offensive line play too. Jamaal Charles of 2009 comes to mind and Matt Forte is an obvious candidate.

 

[Concept Coop]

QB rankings for a start 2-QB league (less emphasis on top-5 potential, more on top 15 production)

What has Skelton done to warrant a top 30 ranking? I remember having this conversation with others about Max Hall. Over Tim Tebow, even? Colt McCoy?I also think Freeman is too high and Schaub is a QB1. Solid list, however. Thank you for sharing. I play in one 2QB league and it puts a lot of importance on the QB spot.

 

[The Man With No Name]

When needing 3 or 4 yards-

Charles--12 rushes for 44 yards, 3 1st downs, 1 touchdown.

Rice------15 rushes for 52 yards, 9 1st downs, 0 touchdowns

Can I ask where you found these? These are valuable and I would love to see them adjusted to find a Value Over Replacement. Thanks!

HERE, which is this site.

 

[Childress]

I want to thanks all the contributors to this thread, this has been a really great source of info and entertainment this season!

That being said can you guys weigh in on Michael Crabtree's dynasty PPR prospects. He has had two different QBs this season and he hasn't seemed to get it together with either of them. Whenever I catch a SF game (which is rare) I see a somewhat slow WR with a tendency to drop too many passes. Can someone inform me on what we were supposed to like about his game and how he might develop into something in the future? Thanks

Ops, missed page 276

 

[J-Dawg]

Anybody else think that Lee Evans might be a good buy low candidate this off-season? He's only 29 and still has a ton of talent. Rotoworld mentioned his roster bonus and the possible speculation he might be a cap casualty. If he goes to another team I think you'll finally see his talent finally rise to the top and get WR2/3 production out of him for pennies. He's someone that I'm going to target cheaply in trades this off-season.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Anybody else think that Lee Evans might be a good buy low candidate this off-season? He's only 29 and still has a ton of talent. Rotoworld mentioned his roster bonus and the possible speculation he might be a cap casualty. If he goes to another team I think you'll finally see his talent finally rise to the top and get WR2/3 production out of him for pennies. He's someone that I'm going to target cheaply in trades this off-season.

I'm not so sure. If Stevie Johnson blew up like he did and Lee Evans could hardly put up average numbers I don't know if he'll do much elsewhere.

 

[Steed]

Lee Evans being talented is one of the bigger misconceptions going in dynasty.

 

[mlball77]

I want to thanks all the contributors to this thread, this has been a really great source of info and entertainment this season!That being said can you guys weigh in on Michael Crabtree's dynasty PPR prospects. He has had two different QBs this season and he hasn't seemed to get it together with either of them. Whenever I catch a SF game (which is rare) I see a somewhat slow WR with a tendency to drop too many passes. Can someone inform me on what we were supposed to like about his game and how he might develop into something in the future? Thanks

On page 276 there was a bit of discussion on Crabtree.

 

[gheemony]

I took a couple week hiatus from the thread because of the holidays and the bickering. I was extremely pleased with what I read today as I caught up. Advanced stats, contract leagues, ... Oh, joy! Thanks for all of your contributions. Great reading. Maybe we're back to some normalcy now that most of the non-regulars have gone home for the season.

 

[thriftyrocker]

QB rankings for a start 2-QB league (less emphasis on top-5 potential, more on top 15 production)

That's a good synopsis. But I question whether the emphasis on top tier potential is really less. I think the difference between Bradford/Ryan and the top 8 is much less in 2QB.The players it helps a lot is Eli. It destroys the argument "lets undervalue Eli because he'll never be elite". Consistent very good is worth a lot because a very good QB2 offers a strong advantage. It puts Eli above Flacco, Freeman types (unless you are a true believer in those guys).But some top 15 production is still valued lowly. For example Palmer is having a top 15 year but still has low value. Bad QBs still have a stench because job security is much more tenuous for QBs than other positions.

 

[bigunreal]

Rice is not only the biggest bust in fantasy football this season, he is the most overrated RB, imho. To compare him with a talent like Charles is absurd; if Charles was allowed to touch the ball as much as Rice does, he'd set some kind of NFL record for combined yardage (and score a lot more TDs).

The Ravens, to a fault, have made Rice the focal point of their offense, which features a very good young QB, a solid offensive line and decent receivers. I believe McGahee is still the more talented back. He was not merely a short TD vulture last season; several of his TDs were longer plays, including pass plays (he is also a very good receiver), but his 5.0 ypc was all the more impressive because of all the short yardage plays.

Sorry to burst the bubble of all the Rice owners who bought into the incredible hype from his 2009 season (recall that this "elite" RB still only had 8 total TDs, despite all that yardage), but Rice is simply a good RB in a nice situation. In fact, I would say he's really not much more than a third down, change of pace type of guy, kind of a chubbier Darren Sproles, but for some reason both Harbaugh and the fantasy football world continue to believe he's some kind of superstar. Don't underestimate the strength of that Ravens' line- remember a few years back, slow, plodding FB Leron McClain also had some success running the ball behind them.

Rice is force fed the ball, to the detriment of the other skilled players on the team. Boldin is only targeted sporadically. McGahee should at least be splitting carries. Heap, when healthy, is a great weapon at TE. Rice is not in Jamal Charles' class as a RB, and in reality is a middle of the pack type of guy, imho, among all NFL starting backs.

 

[squistion]

Anybody else think that Lee Evans might be a good buy low candidate this off-season? He's only 29 and still has a ton of talent. Rotoworld mentioned his roster bonus and the possible speculation he might be a cap casualty. If he goes to another team I think you'll finally see his talent finally rise to the top and get WR2/3 production out of him for pennies. He's someone that I'm going to target cheaply in trades this off-season.

Evans has been a buy low candidate for the last three years. The argument was that Evans didn't do better because there was not another receiving threat for the team and that he was not talented enough to overcome the constant double coverage.This year Stevie Johnson emerged, but that not only didn't improve Evans numbers any, he seems to have taken a back seat to Johnson. I have seen few Buffalo games so that may be more going on here than I am aware of, however my assessment is that Evans is just simply not as good as many of us thought and a change of scenary probably won't improve things for him.

 

[Tau837]

Rice is not only the biggest bust in fantasy football this season, he is the most overrated RB, imho. To compare him with a talent like Charles is absurd; if Charles was allowed to touch the ball as much as Rice does, he'd set some kind of NFL record for combined yardage (and score a lot more TDs).The Ravens, to a fault, have made Rice the focal point of their offense, which features a very good young QB, a solid offensive line and decent receivers. I believe McGahee is still the more talented back. He was not merely a short TD vulture last season; several of his TDs were longer plays, including pass plays (he is also a very good receiver), but his 5.0 ypc was all the more impressive because of all the short yardage plays. Sorry to burst the bubble of all the Rice owners who bought into the incredible hype from his 2009 season (recall that this "elite" RB still only had 8 total TDs, despite all that yardage), but Rice is simply a good RB in a nice situation. In fact, I would say he's really not much more than a third down, change of pace type of guy, kind of a chubbier Darren Sproles, but for some reason both Harbaugh and the fantasy football world continue to believe he's some kind of superstar. Don't underestimate the strength of that Ravens' line- remember a few years back, slow, plodding FB Leron McClain also had some success running the ball behind them. Rice is force fed the ball, to the detriment of the other skilled players on the team. Boldin is only targeted sporadically. McGahee should at least be splitting carries. Heap, when healthy, is a great weapon at TE. Rice is not in Jamal Charles' class as a RB, and in reality is a middle of the pack type of guy, imho, among all NFL starting backs.

LOL at using the word "chubbier" to describe Ray Rice.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Lastly, Rice is not getting better. If you want to you the simple stats you claim pure, he is getting worse. A lot worse. I also find it interested that people are ready and willing to write of an average season as "one bad year" but defend last season as more than an anomaly of equal proportions. In other words, his good season is valid and his average season is a fluke, in your eyes and I don't get it.

He is RB10 in my league (ppr), so it's not really an "average" season, just down from last year. My views on Rice are what I think of his talent level. Prior to the NFL draft I thought he was the second best back (behind James Stewart) coming into the league in what turned out to be an amazing class - I'd have to put him behind Chris Johnson and arguabley Charles and McFadden now in hindsight as well, so its not just based on 2009 alone. I do see that season more indicitive of his talent level though and if he scored a few more TDs this season he'd be right back there. I just think next year he's capable of either punching in a few short ones or breaking a few longer ones that just haven't come this year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Anybody else think that Lee Evans might be a good buy low candidate this off-season? He's only 29 and still has a ton of talent. Rotoworld mentioned his roster bonus and the possible speculation he might be a cap casualty. If he goes to another team I think you'll finally see his talent finally rise to the top and get WR2/3 production out of him for pennies. He's someone that I'm going to target cheaply in trades this off-season.

Why? For years his apologists have been blaming poor QB play and the lack of another target to take pressure off of him as the reason he's been so inconsistent. This year Ryan Fitzpatrick and Steve Johnson emerge and Evans all but disappears. So what was the problem again?With that said I don't disagree with your general premise, as Evans could probably be had dirt cheap and a fresh start may go a long way towards turning him around.

 

[mcintyre1]

Anybody else think that Lee Evans might be a good buy low candidate this off-season? He's only 29 and still has a ton of talent. Rotoworld mentioned his roster bonus and the possible speculation he might be a cap casualty. If he goes to another team I think you'll finally see his talent finally rise to the top and get WR2/3 production out of him for pennies. He's someone that I'm going to target cheaply in trades this off-season.

Why? For years his apologists have been blaming poor QB play and the lack of another target to take pressure off of him as the reason he's been so inconsistent. This year Ryan Fitzpatrick and Steve Johnson emerge and Evans all but disappears. So what was the problem again?With that said I don't disagree with your general premise, as Evans could probably be had dirt cheap and a fresh start may go a long way towards turning him around.

I have been a Lee Evans believer in the past (heck, I even traded for him earlier this year), but with the emergence of Steve Johnson, I've bailed on him in all leagues. He just simply isn't as talented as we all thought he was. Maybe he still has the physical tools, but has lost the drive to be a great player. I'm not going to hold and wait to find out.

 

[renesauz]

Rice is not only the biggest bust in fantasy football this season, he is the most overrated RB, imho. To compare him with a talent like Charles is absurd; if Charles was allowed to touch the ball as much as Rice does, he'd set some kind of NFL record for combined yardage (and score a lot more TDs).

The Ravens, to a fault, have made Rice the focal point of their offense, which features a very good young QB, a solid offensive line and decent receivers. I believe McGahee is still the more talented back. He was not merely a short TD vulture last season; several of his TDs were longer plays, including pass plays (he is also a very good receiver), but his 5.0 ypc was all the more impressive because of all the short yardage plays.

Sorry to burst the bubble of all the Rice owners who bought into the incredible hype from his 2009 season (recall that this "elite" RB still only had 8 total TDs, despite all that yardage), but Rice is simply a good RB in a nice situation. In fact, I would say he's really not much more than a third down, change of pace type of guy, kind of a chubbier Darren Sproles, but for some reason both Harbaugh and the fantasy football world continue to believe he's some kind of superstar. Don't underestimate the strength of that Ravens' line- remember a few years back, slow, plodding FB Leron McClain also had some success running the ball behind them.

Rice is force fed the ball, to the detriment of the other skilled players on the team. Boldin is only targeted sporadically. McGahee should at least be splitting carries. Heap, when healthy, is a great weapon at TE. Rice is not in Jamal Charles' class as a RB, and in reality is a middle of the pack type of guy, imho, among all NFL starting backs.

He really is NOT force fed the ball. Watching several Ravens games this year I've been surprised by how often he gets ignored for long stretches of games, then sees 4 touches in 6 snaps, 3 of which will come in obvious run situations, with a line not opening much holes.Rice might have been over-valued as a top 5 RB, but right now he's being criminally under-valued by some. He still looks quick, and looks exceedingly dangerous in the open field, despite his lack of big plays this year. Easily remains a top 10 RB in PPR, and probably hovering at the RB1/RB2 cutoff in non-PPR.

Calling him a "bust" this year is ridiculous. Dissapointing maybe, not "bust".

 

[thehornet]

Rice is not only the biggest bust in fantasy football this season, he is the most overrated RB, imho. To compare him with a talent like Charles is absurd; if Charles was allowed to touch the ball as much as Rice does, he'd set some kind of NFL record for combined yardage (and score a lot more TDs).

The Ravens, to a fault, have made Rice the focal point of their offense, which features a very good young QB, a solid offensive line and decent receivers. I believe McGahee is still the more talented back. He was not merely a short TD vulture last season; several of his TDs were longer plays, including pass plays (he is also a very good receiver), but his 5.0 ypc was all the more impressive because of all the short yardage plays.

Sorry to burst the bubble of all the Rice owners who bought into the incredible hype from his 2009 season (recall that this "elite" RB still only had 8 total TDs, despite all that yardage), but Rice is simply a good RB in a nice situation. In fact, I would say he's really not much more than a third down, change of pace type of guy, kind of a chubbier Darren Sproles, but for some reason both Harbaugh and the fantasy football world continue to believe he's some kind of superstar. Don't underestimate the strength of that Ravens' line- remember a few years back, slow, plodding FB Leron McClain also had some success running the ball behind them.

Rice is force fed the ball, to the detriment of the other skilled players on the team. Boldin is only targeted sporadically. McGahee should at least be splitting carries. Heap, when healthy, is a great weapon at TE. Rice is not in Jamal Charles' class as a RB, and in reality is a middle of the pack type of guy, imho, among all NFL starting backs.

He really is NOT force fed the ball. Watching several Ravens games this year I've been surprised by how often he gets ignored for long stretches of games, then sees 4 touches in 6 snaps, 3 of which will come in obvious run situations, with a line not opening much holes.Rice might have been over-valued as a top 5 RB, but right now he's being criminally under-valued by some. He still looks quick, and looks exceedingly dangerous in the open field, despite his lack of big plays this year. Easily remains a top 10 RB in PPR, and probably hovering at the RB1/RB2 cutoff in non-PPR.

Calling him a "bust" this year is ridiculous. Dissapointing maybe, not "bust".

I've watched every Ravens game. Rice is one of the most complete backs in the league from blocking, to perimeter skills to gaining toough un the middle yards to the receiving game. He is definitely not used enough to be frank. In the beginning of the year the Ravens were airing it out more in attempt to get Flacco's confident up in his 3rd full year (imo). They likely lost a a game or two by underutilizing Rice and going to the air.

 

[thehornet]

Rice is not only the biggest bust in fantasy football this season, he is the most overrated RB, imho. To compare him with a talent like Charles is absurd; if Charles was allowed to touch the ball as much as Rice does, he'd set some kind of NFL record for combined yardage (and score a lot more TDs).The Ravens, to a fault, have made Rice the focal point of their offense, which features a very good young QB, a solid offensive line and decent receivers. I believe McGahee is still the more talented back. He was not merely a short TD vulture last season; several of his TDs were longer plays, including pass plays (he is also a very good receiver), but his 5.0 ypc was all the more impressive because of all the short yardage plays. Sorry to burst the bubble of all the Rice owners who bought into the incredible hype from his 2009 season (recall that this "elite" RB still only had 8 total TDs, despite all that yardage), but Rice is simply a good RB in a nice situation. In fact, I would say he's really not much more than a third down, change of pace type of guy, kind of a chubbier Darren Sproles, but for some reason both Harbaugh and the fantasy football world continue to believe he's some kind of superstar. Don't underestimate the strength of that Ravens' line- remember a few years back, slow, plodding FB Leron McClain also had some success running the ball behind them. Rice is force fed the ball, to the detriment of the other skilled players on the team. Boldin is only targeted sporadically. McGahee should at least be splitting carries. Heap, when healthy, is a great weapon at TE. Rice is not in Jamal Charles' class as a RB, and in reality is a middle of the pack type of guy, imho, among all NFL starting backs.

I dont understand any of this talk. It really sounds like you expect far too much out of your fantasy players. Rice is on pace for well over 1500 all purpose yards. Sure his TD's are low but hes young and he needs to earn it. I like the way he has been used up until this point in his career. If McGahee is gone next year then he will likely explode onto the touchdown scene as well. McGahee is nothing close to being as effective or explosive or elusive as Rice. I won;t even debate it further because it's crazy to believe someoe thinks they should be splitting carries. This team is much slower and less dynamic with McGahee in the back. Sadly, you would be praising Rice as an elite uber stud if he had 10 td's right now. Ironical becuase TD's are the most fluky stat in fantasy.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Rice is not only the biggest bust in fantasy football this season, he is the most overrated RB, imho. To compare him with a talent like Charles is absurd; if Charles was allowed to touch the ball as much as Rice does, he'd set some kind of NFL record for combined yardage (and score a lot more TDs).The Ravens, to a fault, have made Rice the focal point of their offense, which features a very good young QB, a solid offensive line and decent receivers. I believe McGahee is still the more talented back. He was not merely a short TD vulture last season; several of his TDs were longer plays, including pass plays (he is also a very good receiver), but his 5.0 ypc was all the more impressive because of all the short yardage plays. Sorry to burst the bubble of all the Rice owners who bought into the incredible hype from his 2009 season (recall that this "elite" RB still only had 8 total TDs, despite all that yardage), but Rice is simply a good RB in a nice situation. In fact, I would say he's really not much more than a third down, change of pace type of guy, kind of a chubbier Darren Sproles, but for some reason both Harbaugh and the fantasy football world continue to believe he's some kind of superstar. Don't underestimate the strength of that Ravens' line- remember a few years back, slow, plodding FB Leron McClain also had some success running the ball behind them. Rice is force fed the ball, to the detriment of the other skilled players on the team. Boldin is only targeted sporadically. McGahee should at least be splitting carries. Heap, when healthy, is a great weapon at TE. Rice is not in Jamal Charles' class as a RB, and in reality is a middle of the pack type of guy, imho, among all NFL starting backs.

I dont understand any of this talk. It really sounds like you expect far too much out of your fantasy players. Rice is on pace for well over 1500 all purpose yards. Sure his TD's are low but hes young and he needs to earn it. I like the way he has been used up until this point in his career. If McGahee is gone next year then he will likely explode onto the touchdown scene as well. McGahee is nothing close to being as effective or explosive or elusive as Rice. I won;t even debate it further because it's crazy to believe someoe thinks they should be splitting carries. This team is much slower and less dynamic with McGahee in the back. Sadly, you would be praising Rice as an elite uber stud if he had 10 td's right now. Ironical becuase TD's are the most fluky stat in fantasy.

Love Rice in PPR leagues. He is probably a top8 RB pick in dynasty start ups

 

[greggorymac]

I apologize to straying from the Rice vs. Charles debate, but what do you think about Ryan Mathews prospects in 2011? Has Mike Tolbert secured his niche in the team as the goal line back, or do you think Mathews can regain that if he actually shows he can stay healthy and on the field?

 

[Concept Coop]

Lastly, Rice is not getting better. If you want to you the simple stats you claim pure, he is getting worse. A lot worse. I also find it interested that people are ready and willing to write of an average season as "one bad year" but defend last season as more than an anomaly of equal proportions. In other words, his good season is valid and his average season is a fluke, in your eyes and I don't get it.

He is RB10 in my league (ppr), so it's not really an "average" season, just down from last year. My views on Rice are what I think of his talent level. Prior to the NFL draft I thought he was the second best back (behind James Stewart) coming into the league in what turned out to be an amazing class - I'd have to put him behind Chris Johnson and arguabley Charles and McFadden now in hindsight as well, so its not just based on 2009 alone. I do see that season more indicitive of his talent level though and if he scored a few more TDs this season he'd be right back there. I just think next year he's capable of either punching in a few short ones or breaking a few longer ones that just haven't come this year.

I can see having Rice top 5-7 in PPR. But he still wouldn't be in my top 5. Foster is a PPR machine, MJD, CJ, AP and JC all do enough out of the backfield to keep Rice on the outside fo that list. McCoy and McFadden both come into the conversation if we are talking PPR. I think we just disagree on his status as an NFL runningback (trying to stay away from the terms "talent" and "elite"). Even before this season, I said he was not a top 10 NFL runningback. If I did feel he was, I might put more stock into the reasons being provided for his down season.I find it just as easy to say: "Rice happened to break a few long runs and receptions last season, padding his stats. It is not realistic to expect that to happen every season." I don't think going a complete season--with every opportunity--without big plays is a statistical anomaly. The top playmakers make big plays, every season. I am not going to have Rice on my roster with the expectation that he will have big plays regularly, that will bring his numbers up on a consistent basis.

 

[thehornet]

Lastly, Rice is not getting better. If you want to you the simple stats you claim pure, he is getting worse. A lot worse. I also find it interested that people are ready and willing to write of an average season as "one bad year" but defend last season as more than an anomaly of equal proportions. In other words, his good season is valid and his average season is a fluke, in your eyes and I don't get it.

He is RB10 in my league (ppr), so it's not really an "average" season, just down from last year. My views on Rice are what I think of his talent level. Prior to the NFL draft I thought he was the second best back (behind James Stewart) coming into the league in what turned out to be an amazing class - I'd have to put him behind Chris Johnson and arguabley Charles and McFadden now in hindsight as well, so its not just based on 2009 alone. I do see that season more indicitive of his talent level though and if he scored a few more TDs this season he'd be right back there. I just think next year he's capable of either punching in a few short ones or breaking a few longer ones that just haven't come this year.

I can see having Rice top 5-7 in PPR. But he still wouldn't be in my top 5. Foster is a PPR machine, MJD, CJ, AP and JC all do enough out of the backfield to keep Rice on the outside fo that list. McCoy and McFadden both come into the conversation if we are talking PPR. I think we just disagree on his status as an NFL runningback (trying to stay away from the terms "talent" and "elite"). Even before this season, I said he was not a top 10 NFL runningback. If I did feel he was, I might put more stock into the reasons being provided for his down season.I find it just as easy to say: "Rice happened to break a few long runs and receptions last season, padding his stats. It is not realistic to expect that to happen every season." I don't think going a complete season--with every opportunity--without big plays is a statistical anomaly. The top playmakers make big plays, every season. I am not going to have Rice on my roster with the expectation that he will have big plays regularly, that will bring his numbers up on a consistent basis.

Next yeat when Foster is back to normal, you'll be saying the same thing about him. You are too reeactionary and only like whats hot NOW. You are jumping on Rice now but next year you'll be touting him again when he is the goal line back and averaging 4.6 ypc. Bank on it.

 

[Concept Coop]

I apologize to straying from the Rice vs. Charles debate, but what do you think about Ryan Mathews prospects in 2011? Has Mike Tolbert secured his niche in the team as the goal line back, or do you think Mathews can regain that if he actually shows he can stay healthy and on the field?

Tolbert has been one of the better goal line backs, consistently, all season. I think that is some cause for concern. That said, even if Tolbert gets all of the "3rd and goal from the 1" carries, the Chargers are not going to pull Matthews when they reach the Redzone. If he is the back they thought he was when they drafted him, he will be just fine.He is a guy that I will be targeting this off-season; and then again, if he has a slow start. People were too eager to write off Knowshon Moreno and LeSean McCoy, and I hope they make that same mistake with Matthews, to our benefit.

 

[Concept Coop]

Next yeat when Foster is back to normal, you'll be saying the same thing about him. You are too reeactionary and only like whats hot NOW. You are jumping on Rice now but next year you'll be touting him again when he is the goal line back and averaging 4.6 ypc. Bank on it.

Let me get this straight: If I buy the Foster hype after one year, I am being too reactionary? But if I don't buy the Rice hype after one year, I am still being too reactionary? Make up your mind.Lastly, you can look through this thread and find a quote from me stating that I didn't think Rice was a top 10 RB BEFORE his down season. So, call me what you like, but" too reactionary" is not fair or accurate. Not using this example, at least.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I don't think going a complete season--with every opportunity--without big plays is a statistical anomaly. The top playmakers make big plays, every season.

We talked about Tiki Barber right? 2003. 278 rushes. Longest run 27 yards. 69 receptions. Longest catch 36 yards. 3 total tds.

 

[thehornet]

Next yeat when Foster is back to normal, you'll be saying the same thing about him. You are too reeactionary and only like whats hot NOW. You are jumping on Rice now but next year you'll be touting him again when he is the goal line back and averaging 4.6 ypc. Bank on it.

Let me get this straight: If I buy the Foster hype after one year, I am being too reactionary? But if I didn't buy the Rice hype after one year, I am still being too reactionary? Make up your mind.Lastly, you can look through this thread and find a quote from me stating that I didn't think Rice was a top 10 RB BEFORE his down season. So, call me what you like, but" too reactionary" is not fair or accurate. Not using this example, at least.

Your calling Rice not Top 10 but after this year he will be Top 10 in all purpose yards for 2 seasons in a row. meanwhile, you think Foster is Top 5 after 3/4 of a season. Foster is good sure, but he's special because of the line. Houstons line is the best in the league for run blocking.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't think going a complete season--with every opportunity--without big plays is a statistical anomaly. The top playmakers make big plays, every season.

We talked about Tiki Barber right? 2003. 278 rushes. Longest run 27 yards. 69 receptions. Longest catch 36 yards. 3 total tds.

I recall pointing out how Tiki Barber's career was far from typical, and that I found no logic predicting it to happen again to anyone. Just like I won't be trading for WR expecting them to be WR1 at the age of 37 becuase Jerry Rice and TO did it.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I apologize to straying from the Rice vs. Charles debate, but what do you think about Ryan Mathews prospects in 2011? Has Mike Tolbert secured his niche in the team as the goal line back, or do you think Mathews can regain that if he actually shows he can stay healthy and on the field?

Tolbert has been one of the better goal line backs, consistently, all season. I think that is some cause for concern. That said, even if Tolbert gets all of the "3rd and goal from the 1" carries, the Chargers are not going to pull Matthews when they reach the Redzone. If he is the back they thought he was when they drafted him, he will be just fine.He is a guy that I will be targeting this off-season; and then again, if he has a slow start. People were too eager to write off Knowshon Moreno and LeSean McCoy, and I hope they make that same mistake with Matthews, to our benefit.

I would liken it to Bradshaw and Jacobs. Jacobs is an effective goalline back and would get that 3rd and goal carry, but the Giants will not pull Bradshaw when he is hot. It is not a "between the 20s" situation.Mathews relevance/chance to be elite depends more on his pass blocking ability than anything else. If he can take that role it will help keep Big Mike off the field and add a lot of stats in dumpdowns. Right now Tolbert is a better blocker and Sproles is vulturing the underneath stuff, all things Mathews can do with time.