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I was hoping to avoid that mess and have a discussion contained in this thread. It's a nice hub for things/players dynasty-specific. Thanks though. Maybe I should just refer to that thread for info (even though most of the discussion is at least a month old).
I would look back for a post by a Poster by the name of Lash. I play in a league with him - good guy. He posted an interview of an assistant coach, who said that he felt Alexander was a better fooball player than Jeremy Maclin, when healthy.I personally don't know much about him, other than his injury history and the fact that he is a young physical speciman playing for a team with Sam Bradford at the helm for the next decade. I think he is worth a roster spot, but I am not comforable trading for him without more info.
Thanks.
I tracked that info down on page 252 of this thread, in case anyone else is interested. I've only seen parts of 2 games where Alexander played, but I came away feeling like he was a legit playmaker. I guess it depends what the asking price is for him to determine if his huge inj risk is worth it.
Well, of course...but I bet I can predict what will happen next year with a lot more accuracy than you can predict will happen in 5 years - and that was my point, as I play in cash leagues and the immediate future that I can better gauge is more important to me than if I played in a free league and all that was at stake was some bragging rights 3-5 years down the road.
I dont have to predict the future, i just have to do it better than my leaguemayes, and thats the fun for me. We play for two different reasons, neither is right/or wrong.
I would say his value is higher now than it will be next summer, but that depends on the health of Hardesty.Cleveland area sports talk people think Mangini is gone. Mornhinweg's name has come up because of his ties to Holmgren and Heckert.Hillis needs to go to the Tiki Barber fumble-itis schooledit: bad spelling
Considering that both these cats are going to check in as the #1 and #2 RB, it's a given they won't have seasons as good as 2010.
Guess i was just stating the obvious there.
I honestly do not see any similarities between Foster and Hillis other than the fact that both came out of nowhere this year. In my opinion, Foster has much more talent than Hillis. Foster clearly passed the eye test for me and Hillis did not. In addition, Hillis broke down over the last month and that tells me he could be part of a RBBC next year. I don't see that happening with Foster.
If Kubiak gets fired or is woooed by the broncos who knows what becomes of the scheme/starter there. Seems to me the RB1 houston is a productive spot, Dom Davis, Slaton, Foster all had marvelous seasons.
The difference for me is Foster passes the eye test. Slaton never did for me. Davis was solid and who knows what would have became of him if not for injuries, but I personally did not consider him an elite talent. I think Foster is.I really do not see a weakness in Foster's game. He has very good speed for his size, is tough to tackle, pretty elusive for a bigger RB, solid in the passing game, and above all he has great vision and instincts. I don't think he is anywhere near scheme dependent. I personally think Foster is an elite talent and a definite top-5 or so dynasty RB. If anyone sees a weakness in his game, I'd sure like to know what it is because I'm not seeing it.
Where I think the situations for Hillis and Foster diverge is the other weapons on their respective rosters. Foster has done what he has done with other weapons other than himself; Hillis is pretty much it (with Cribbs out).Next year, one would have to think the Browns will load up at least somewhat, which should take away some action from Hillis. For Foster, there are already other significant weapons there and he still did what he did this year.I guess I don't see Foster's workload decreasing as much, percentage-wise, as I do Hillis'.
I think Freeman is going to be a good one, but top 5 seems like a stretch. I'd probably swap him and Rivers and move Luck to the bottom of the list.
One game does not make a career. I am high on Freeman but putting him in the top 10 would be hard for me to do right now.
He does state pretty clearly that its a ranking for the long term. Its anyones guess really.. I don't care exactly where he ends up on the list, the point I'm trying to make is simply that I think he'll be a good QB.
Wow. I'd put Romo, who didn't make the list, at 3, and Freeman outside of the top ten. Bradford is a good QB but top five? His game might or might not translate to fantasy production. Freeman, same thing. Who are the weapons that are going to enable him to put up 3 touchdowns and 300 yards most weeks? Rivers, you know you're getting huge numbers. Putting Luck or Bradford or Freeman ahead of him is an enormous, enormous leap of faith.
Romo to me isn't a hold in a 1QB system at this point. For one, he's old and has missed lots of injury time. When I rank QBs long term if you miss major time in 2 seasons I drop you out of the top 10. There are many other factors even outside of that to drop Romo even more (coaching changes, OL is horrid, and lack of running game). None of these to me seem to be fixable in the short, or long term with the current management structure in place at Dallas. I'm mainly looking at production over the next 5 years with production over the next 2 factoring about half of it. I'm sort of wondering if Freeman is a buy in a start 1QB league for the long term.
Rather than argue for or against Freeman, I'll just say that if you value Freeman anywhere close to what you posted, you should be buying him. His price isn't nearly that IMO.My biggest issue with what you have is Rivers. I can't imagine anyone would trade him for Freeman, Bradford, Manning or Luck.
You're gonna have to unwrap this quite a bit.
are you an nfl scout? college? high school? what are you credentials for having such a "keen" eye for identifying "elite" talent. seems that a team could use your services considering foster went undrafted.
Romo is only 30 years old. That is young for a QB. I also don't know how injuries should be an issue. Other than the broken collarbone (which should not count against him), he has only missed 3 games since becoming a starter in 2006. The Cowboys have a ton of elite skill position players (Dez, Austin, Witten) and are good enough at RB. Their line is solid enough when healthy. Obviously they could be more consistent running the ball but even with that I think he has one of the better situations around. At the time he was injured, he was 6th in QB scoring and that includes the fact that he had a bye week. I think he is a borderline top-5 dynasty QB.
Who said you have to be an NFL scout to judge someones talent? You and I and any serious football fan that watches a lot of games know far more than they/we/I think we do. By the way, Warren Moon, Kurt Warner, James Harrison, Priest Holmes, **** "Night Train" Lane, John Randle, Tony Romo, and Antonio Gates, were all undrafted. Tom Brady went in round 6 and JaMarcus Russell went 1st overall. Food for thought.How do you determine how good a player is?
RomoCutlerFreeman
Agreed. It is a dangerous practice to project career trajectory based on age (i.e. - Player scoring x at 24 will be scoring x + at age 26). I see a lot of people doing that with Freeman. Just because a player is a good NFL QB for his age, deosn't mean he is going to keep taking major strides on a fantasy level. I wouldn't value Freeman much higher than what his 2010 stats warrant. He also seems to be getting "leadership" or "scrappy" points in most rankings. Not only do they not translate into fantasy points, they can be short-lived, ala Derek Anderson who was a scrappy leader at one point.
My main question was around Freeman. I have him as a huge ?, but he represents lots of potential long term value. Moreso perhaps than any QB younger than 30. I'm just trying to peg him somewhere in the mix to see what it might take value wise to get him (i.e. Rivers + X) or (Rodgers - X) type deal and see how I feel about that. The other guys I'm fairly comfortable with where I have them. Swapping Rivers for Freeman in that list probably seems the consensus of the responders here.I don't want to just hijack this into a Romo debate, but I feel pretty confident the next coach will not stat pad like Garrett. I just don't see long term upside.cheese said:
I dont think you have to be a talent scout to judge talent, although im sure they are much better than we are at it. My unproffesional opinion of Foster differs from AB's however. Foster is a system RB with average NFL talent. Good size, breaks some tackles but lacks elusiveness and breakaway speed. The vision thing is just something people say about RB's who are in great systems.Hillis is every bit as good as Foster, and maybe better. Hillis will never get the respect he deserves, people will just say he doesnt pass "the eyeball test" but he is doing almost as much as Foster without the great supporting cast. Yes, he has a good oline, but look at the crap he has at QB and WR, the guy constantly sees 8 in the box, and Foster rarely does.cvnpoka said:
He finished 7th at age 22. Do you see him regressing?Not sure I'd put him top 5 myself, but it's not outlandish at all. - 1st rounder- prototypical size- extremely impressive mobility and instincts- excellent young talent around him- only 22- 60% completion, 7+ ypa- running statsWhat's not to like?
Thinking about long-term potential includes a bunch of things besides the player himself, especially at QB. In order to believe he can be a top 5 QB, you'd have to believe some combination of...1. Morris/Olson will run an offensive style that will allow for huge numbers from the QB position OR new coaches will be brought in that will.2. The NFC South will allow for big offensive numbers on a regular basis.3. His weapons in Tampa will help him put up big numbers consistently.I do like the talent of the Freeman/Williams/Benn combo, but I question how high the upside is in that division with that offense.Basically, I view Freeman as much less of a question mark than you do. He's shown (IMO) that he is a solid starting QB with some young talent around him playing in a tough division for a semi-conservative offense. I would rank that similar to Big Ben. Its not top 5, but its worth owning.
First I'm not sure how you can characterize him as up and down when he's had only one game below 10 points this season, which was week 3 against the Steelers. In fact he's been ridiculously consistent:
1 17.68 vs Browns2 19.42 at Panthers3 7.86 vs Steelers4 Bye5 16.20 at Bengals6 12.96 vs Saints7 16.48 vs Rams8 17.32 at Cardinals9 16.16 at Falcons10 18.54 vs Panthers11 14.94 at 49ers12 13.18 at Ravens13 13.04 vs Falcons14 16.64 at Redskins15 16.94 vs Lions16 31.78 vs SeahawksThose numbers are too low for a starting qb in most leagues. That's what i meant by saying there are so many other better qbs. Improvement is always a possibility but dynasty isn't about taking chances. Stick with the guys who have proven to get you points week after week. Then again, it depends on the round you can draft him in. Anytime after the 7th or 8th round is probably worth the risk.
My dynasty method is the exact opposite of that. I'd trade Reggie Wayne for Vincent Jackson all day.
1. He didn't finish 7th.2. Using PPG is much more accurate.3. Matt Cassel scored more than him, with a slow start. 4. Matt Schaub scored more than him, playing injured, and throwing to an injured AJ, who also missed 2 games. 5. Eli Manning scored more than him. 6. Age is great, if the player is great. What good does it do to have a low end QB1 for 10 years? Granted, if Freeman ever reaches top 5 status, that is another thing. But a 5 years of top 5 production will do more to win you championships than 10 years of top 10. Don't get me wrong, he was a solid suprise this year. But top 5 should be reserved for the elite and Freeman has a ways to go to get there.
He finished 7th in total points, 12th in average in my league.So in terms of fantasy finish, yes I see him regressing. Romo and Roethlisberger both have the pedigree and talent to easily rate higher than him. The fact that they missed time this season does not change the fact that to me they are better dynasty QB's. I would say the following QB's are clearly superior dynasty QB's to Freeman..RodgersBreesRiversManningBradyVickRomo Big BenI personally think Bradford falls right after that tier, and a lot of people would agree with that as well. Leaving Freeman at best at #10. Personally I would also have Ryan and Stafford above Freeman as well, although I understand there are a lot of people who are not comfortable with that, especially Stafford. Luck will also jump Freeman in my rankings the second he is drafted. In short I expect Freeman to continue to progress as a better NFL QB, but regress from his #7 finish to be more of an Eli Manning low QB1/high QB2 in the future.
He did finish 7th in my standard scoring league but I guess depending on decimal use, Schaub and Eli might inch ahead of him.Cassel, Schaub, and Eli all have much more experience. They'll continue to finish right there in the 7-12 range. Freeman will likely stay in that range too but he may vault higher. That makes him much more attractive to me, but to each his own.
freeman was quite consistent this year actually. didnt have many explosive games but was almost always around 17-20.
You not counting the rushing yards? He's 7th. There's 4 or 5 other QBs less than 10 points behind him, including Cassel, Schaub, and Eli. What's not to like: the Bucs passed a lot in RZ/GL opportunities and he still only ended up with 23 TDs. (ETA Other than Mike Williams) Benn is not a sure thing, Winslow is a very old 27, and there is nothing behind them. The 6 INTs could be an anomaly. The rushing yards might not be maintainable year-to-year.It's a lot easier for me to see this year as a high water mark for Freeman than Ryan. Turner breaks down a little more, they draft a guy like Blackmon or Floyd, and Ryan will put up even better stats.
Schaub is the 12th QB in NFL HISTORY to have back-to-back 4,000 yard seasons. AJ's TDs were down this year, I think because of injury. But he is one of the best scoring WRs in the NFL. Please help me understand why Schaub will continue to finish around 7-12. What about Freeman suggests that he will score higher than Schaub? I think people see the number 22 and fall in love. Not all 2nd year QBs who show promise improve on their numbers much after that. It wasn't long ago that Matt Ryan was talked about as a top 5 dynasty QB.
That's all fair and I said he's not in my top 5 either. It just seems silly to me to jump all over people who do rank him that high, as he certainly has the potential to get there. The fact that there are several other impressive quarterbacks shouldn't take away from Freeman's own ability to be a top-flight fantasy QB. You have to anticipate these things in dynasty. If someone had traded Schaub for Bradford before the season, he would have been mocked. But wouldn't we all rather have Bradford at this point? And why? His numbers aren't better. Because you see top 5 potential in Bradford and you want a piece of it. Some (definitely fewer) people see the same in Freeman.
I don't see anything special when I watch Schaub or Ryan, but I do when I watch Freeman. You can focus on stats if you want - dynasty needs people with varying philosophies. I prefer focusing on what I see, which is why I and guys like F&L had Foster on our rosters before this season. I've seen this argument hashed out a million times in this thread and won't be a part of it. Let's agree to disagree.
