Dynasty Rankings (8 Viewers)

[Fear & Loathing]

I watched the game and agree with Florio's assessment bolded above. Smith locked on to Mark Clayton, who had only one target with Boller in the game, but had five on Troy's two series. We'd be hearing a lot more noise about him today if Billick had let him try to get the team in the end zone at the end of the fourth quarter. I'd be mighty baffled if Billick didn't give him the reigns for the next two weeks (although Billick is a pretty baffling guy), considering how easy it would be to blame the move on Boller's concussion. We should get a glimpse of his potential in Weeks 16 and 17.

Thanks, Busman.That was my inclination as well, but it's nice to hear from somebody who watched the game. FWIW, Billick's latest statements indicate that Boller will remain the starter this weekend.

There are a few of ways to analyze this non-move by Billick: 1) The depth chart is already settled. With Boller already signed through 2008 and the Ravens playing for nothing but pride, there isn't any particular reason to give his confidence a hit by benching him for Smith, provided he is healthy.2) Billick doesn't want to expose Smith. I don't buy this argument, but I heard it espoused by some on Sirius NFL Radio this morning. Perhaps Smith has some practice or mental issues the public at large doesn't know about?3) Either way, I believe Baltimore will have an open competition for the job in the 2008 training camp. Depending on whether they cut McNair (or he retires) and if they bring in any QBs via FA and/or the draft, the job could go any number of ways. Given that we know what Boller's body of work to date is, I suspect he'll be the starter until Smith outplays him in TC/preseason. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Smith was their opening day starter next year.

Next year's Ravens remind me of this year's Chiefs. If they don't know by now that a season with Kyle Boller at QB is a lost season, then they deserve whatever fate awaits them. There are only 16 games in a NFL season, so a franchise can't afford to be wasting a good portion of those games -- and a lost season -- on a QB with no future. Kyle Boller = Brodie Croyle = :X Troy Smith = The Ravens can either chalk next season up as a loss and watch how pissed off this makes Ray Lewis, or they can bring in a better QB than Kyle Boller. I highly doubt Troy Smith is the answer for a 16-game season at this point in his career, but we know that Kyle Boller is not. If they don't want to be the Chiefs, they better find a legit NFL starting QB. But if they're resigned to a lost season, then Troy Smith makes a lot more sense than Boller does.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

More on Troy Smith from Football Outsiders' Audibles at the Line:

Ben Riley: Of course, Brian Billick bailed him out by refusing to rise to the challenge. You have the ball at the half-yard line and 12 seconds to play. You aren’t going to the playoffs — run the ball, man! Jam that thing down the Dolphins’ throat! Billick had to scream at Troy Smith to get off the field. Way to show your cojones, coach.

Speaking of Smith, he seems to have some of those “intangibles” you want in a quarterback. While Kyle Boller looked like a corpse on the sideline, Ravens players were rallying around Smith and seemed far more energized when he was in the game. Plus, he’s good at avoiding sacks and he threw a couple of perfect passes in tight windows that should have been caught but weren’t.

This jives with the Florio report and BusMan's evaluation. It also backs up what I said leading up to the NFL draft: I don't if Troy Smith will make it in the NFL, but I do know he's up there with guys like Shane Battier and Byron Leftwich as the best leaders I've seen in college athletics over the past 10 seasons. It remains to be seen if his talent is NFL caliber, but it's nice to know his "intangibles" translate to the next level.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I was just curious how many years down the road you other dynasty owners look. I do not look no more than 3 years. Just to much change in the NFL to look any longer.

Depends on the position. For RBs, anything more than 3 years is pointless, but for a good QB, barring injury, you can pencil in upwards of 8 to 10 years. For instance, the reason a guy like Roethlisberger is so valuable is because I'm almost certain my league will fold before I'm no longer able to start him (barring injury, of course). Once a guy proves a certain level of talent over multiple years, you can pretty much just expect him to keep on keeping on. His year-by-year production might change with system and supporting cast, but he's going to be starting for the same franchise for the rest of his career. As of right now, I'd say that these "Franchise QBs" are Brady and Manning (although obviously you aren't going to get 10 years out of them, but 6 is fully reasonable), Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger, with Cutler and Romo both being poised to make the jump (obviously Romo is closer than Cutler, but I'd like to see him start out hot next season, too, before I move him into that "no-brainer 10-year starter" category). After that you've got the dynasty guys who are more than good enough to win with, but for one reason or another I don't feel comfortable projecting more than 3-4 years in advance (Bulger, Hass, Brees, Favre, McNabb).WR and TE are other positions that you can feel free to project out until forever. If you look at the career arcs of the true uberstud TEs (Winslow Sr., Newsome, Sharpe, Gonzo, etc), you'll see consistent and sustained production for almost a decade. As a result, I have no problem projecting Gates to be a stud for another 6 years or more (but he's the only one- no offense to Witten, who is having a great season, but he's no Gates/Gonzo/Sharpe). Likewise, if you have a proven stud at WR, you can count on him remaining a stud until midway through his 30s, or until he suffers a major injury, whichever comes first. I'm pretty confident that, barring injury, Fitzgerald has another 8 years as a strong startable WR left in him, at least.This can often result in a lot of dilemmas. For instance, how much is an 8-year WR like Fitzgerald worth compared to a 3-year WR like Moss? Or how much is a 12-year QB like Roethlisberger worth compared to a 3-year RB like Westbrook? One method I like to use in situations like that is a "Three Years + Exit Value" projection. I project how they'll do over the 3 years, and I also project how much they'll be worth 3 years from now, and I combine the two projections to get a current value. For instance, Andre Johnson and Randy Moss have virtually identical PPG values so far this season. If I project that they're going to score exactly the same number of points over the next 3 years, too, which is more valuable? Obviously, in this case, it's Andre Johnson. Both will produce the same on the field, but AJ's "exit value" will be so much higher after that 3 year span because he'll be 30 while Moss will be 35. To give an example, I could use Randy Moss and then after 3 years be left with nothing (as he's worn out all his value), or I could use Andre Johnson and after 3 years trade him for something else, essentially giving me Randy Moss and a free player (whatever I got in return for Johnson).Anyway, Big Ben won't produce on the field like a stud RB, obviously, but his exit value 3 years from now will be pretty much identical to his value right now. As a result, his 3-year production + exit value might be worth a stud at another position.

this thread rocks because of stuff lke this.great way to put in perspective a players value.

I agree. Great post by SSOG. I was going to chime in on the same question, but I think SSOG pretty much said it all.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F & LWho would you be targeting right now as a good buy low ( a guy this year who is way under performing)a few 6 or 7 pages ago you were talking about having guys that are playing at a top 25 level but could be playing at a top 10 level.I would like to hear some names and thoughts you or any other guys might have. A month ago you said Santana Moss was a good buy low do you still think so?I read nearly every post in this Thread, and Love it. Tons of great insight and explanations.One last question, this last year was our initial draft for our dynasty league. In the late rounds I drafted Micheal Bush and Kenny Irons. I noticed you had both these guys ranked somewhat high, so you must like them. What are your thoughts on Bush and Irons. What type of break away speed does these guys have?

Thanks, new-guru.I don't think I have Bush & Irons all that high. I figure they're both young, and they haven't failed yet in the NFL. They both may get a chance to carry the load at some point in the next year or two, which gives them more value than a veteran running on fumes or a role player likely to stay a part-timer. But I think the value in both cases is speculative, and I would count any real value down the road as a blessing. I just figure the possible upside here is a exactly what you should be doing with a dynasty league RB4 roster stash.Guys who are way underperforming and could/should bounce back next season:QB - McNabb, Bulger, Vince Young, Leinart, Rivers?, Kitna?RB - Gore, R. Bush, FWP, MJD, Maroney WR - Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams, L. Evans, Marvin Harrison, J. Walker?, S. Moss?, Ma. Clayton, R. CurryTE - Heap!, B. Watson; if you can get them reasonably: V. Davis & G. OlsenI don't know how much that helps without comments, but the possibilities are endless here. If you want to talk about somebody specifically, let us know.

 

[gianmarco]

F&L, just curious why you're so down on Croyle. Now, I know you don't have to defend every player or ranking and I admit I haven't seen him play much, but from what I have seen, he's looked decent and from what I've read and heard, he actually has some talent and is just rough around the edges. With it being so early in his career with only a handful of starts to his name, why are you so down on him and convinced he has no chance to succeed? I understand that some guys need to have it and if they don't show anything by a certain time, then it's just not going to happen, but I think he still needs a little more time to prove himself one way or the other.

Also, agree about Colston that he does deserve a bump up. Not many guys I'd trade him for at this point at all.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L, just curious why you're so down on Croyle. Now, I know you don't have to defend every player or ranking and I admit I haven't seen him play much, but from what I have seen, he's looked decent and from what I've read and heard, he actually has some talent and is just rough around the edges. With it being so early in his career with only a handful of starts to his name, why are you so down on him and convinced he has no chance to succeed? I understand that some guys need to have it and if they don't show anything by a certain time, then it's just not going to happen, but I think he still needs a little more time to prove himself one way or the other.

Every time I've seen Croyle play he's been just dreadful. If you're not convinced that a few games of observation do the trick, take a gander at his stats: 5.7 YPA :( , 58.0% completions, 5 TDs in 7 games (2 of which came this past Sunday when his receivers made jaw-dropping plays inside the 10 yardline), 4 fumbles, and the worst scoring offense in the NFL when he's been under center. If that's not enough, the Chiefs basically tried to hand him the starting QB job this pre-season, and he flat-out couldn't take it. And when I say "hand him the starting job," I mean declaring him the starter entering training camp and giving him a chance to make all the throws in pre-season games while the playcallers stuck Huard with hand-offs and dump-offs in hopes that Croyle would outplay him. I remember watching the Dolphins-Chiefs preseason game, and Jaws was shocked at how badly the Chiefs were trying to rig the QB competition so Croyle could win it...something to the effect of "you're not really having a QB competition if you're only allowing one of the QBs to compete."

 

[Brewzers]

More on Troy Smith from Football Outsiders' Audibles at the Line:

Ben Riley: Of course, Brian Billick bailed him out by refusing to rise to the challenge. You have the ball at the half-yard line and 12 seconds to play. You aren’t going to the playoffs — run the ball, man! Jam that thing down the Dolphins’ throat! Billick had to scream at Troy Smith to get off the field. Way to show your cojones, coach.

Speaking of Smith, he seems to have some of those “intangibles” you want in a quarterback. While Kyle Boller looked like a corpse on the sideline, Ravens players were rallying around Smith and seemed far more energized when he was in the game. Plus, he’s good at avoiding sacks and he threw a couple of perfect passes in tight windows that should have been caught but weren’t.

This jives with the Florio report and BusMan's evaluation. It also backs up what I said leading up to the NFL draft: I don't if Troy Smith will make it in the NFL, but I do know he's up there with guys like Shane Battier and Byron Leftwich as the best leaders I've seen in college athletics over the past 10 seasons. It remains to be seen if his talent is NFL caliber, but it's nice to know his "intangibles" translate to the next level.

Thanks for the talk and insight on Troy Smith. I grabbed him off waivers in week 10 or 11 to stash on my bench for next year. I watched him play in Austin last year and was very impressed, granted it was college, but he shredded a star studded Texas secondary. He has a very strong arm and he was elusive, not so much as a runner (he is a threat), but he moved well in the pocket. I also remember reading several articles (leading up to the OSU/TX game) about his leadership with a big emphasis on his competitive nature. Not that any of that will make him an NFL QB, but I think the fact he energized his team speaks volumes.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Thanks for the talk and insight on Troy Smith. I grabbed him off waivers in week 10 or 11 to stash on my bench for next year. I watched him play in Austin last year and was very impressed, granted it was college, but he shredded a star studded Texas secondary. He has a very strong arm and he was elusive, not so much as a runner (he is a threat), but he moved well in the pocket. I also remember reading several articles (leading up to the OSU/TX game) about his leadership with a big emphasis on his competitive nature. Not that any of that will make him an NFL QB, but I think the fact he energized his team speaks volumes.

Glad we could help someone out, Brewzers. I figured I might be overdoing it with all the Troy Smith talk, since he's somewhat of a longshot...but with his situation he should be on the radar of every owner at least in larger leagues and many owners in 12-team leagues.Re: competitiveness, leadership. I have a good friend in the talk radio business in Cincinnati. This guy is an absolute college football nut / maven and very astute when it comes to judging talent. I trust him almost implicitly when it comes to judging college football and basketball talent. I'm sure he's seen every Ohio State game going back 15 years, so he's on top of the program like few are. He simply raves about Troy Smith's intangibles: said in addition to the off-the-charts competitiveness and leadership, Smith did the most impressive 180 degree turn he's ever seen out of a college athlete. Smith was something of a problem child when he arrived at Ohio St., and then there was the suspension in 2004. He said Smith was extremely embarrassed and ashamed by the suspension, especially because it left his teammates with a disadvantage in those games. After the suspension, he said Smith worked harder than any college athlete he's ever seen to improve his game, make it up to his teammates, and do everything in his power to ensure that Ohio St. would win every time they took the field. The turnaround in Smith's game was all-encompassing. He thought Troy Smith should have easily been a 2nd round NFL draft pick if you consider his talent level and intangibles.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm still working out some kinks, but I can't wait to take this one off the blocks and give it a test drive:

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/

What do you think?

 

[new-guru]

F & LWho would you be targeting right now as a good buy low ( a guy this year who is way under performing)a few 6 or 7 pages ago you were talking about having guys that are playing at a top 25 level but could be playing at a top 10 level.I would like to hear some names and thoughts you or any other guys might have. A month ago you said Santana Moss was a good buy low do you still think so?I read nearly every post in this Thread, and Love it. Tons of great insight and explanations.One last question, this last year was our initial draft for our dynasty league. In the late rounds I drafted Micheal Bush and Kenny Irons. I noticed you had both these guys ranked somewhat high, so you must like them. What are your thoughts on Bush and Irons. What type of break away speed does these guys have?

Thanks, new-guru.I don't think I have Bush & Irons all that high. I figure they're both young, and they haven't failed yet in the NFL. They both may get a chance to carry the load at some point in the next year or two, which gives them more value than a veteran running on fumes or a role player likely to stay a part-timer. But I think the value in both cases is speculative, and I would count any real value down the road as a blessing. I just figure the possible upside here is a exactly what you should be doing with a dynasty league RB4 roster stash.Guys who are way underperforming and could/should bounce back next season:QB - McNabb, Bulger, Vince Young, Leinart, Rivers?, Kitna?RB - Gore, R. Bush, FWP, MJD, Maroney WR - Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams, L. Evans, Marvin Harrison, J. Walker?, S. Moss?, Ma. Clayton, R. CurryTE - Heap!, B. Watson; if you can get them reasonably: V. Davis & G. OlsenI don't know how much that helps without comments, but the possibilities are endless here. If you want to talk about somebody specifically, let us know.

F & LI am sure I can trade for Calvin Johnson pretty cheap. However I have read through everything you guys have been writing about Fitz, Randy and Calvin and can't really feal good about Calvin's situation. The Detroit offense seems to never know what they are doing. I own K. Jones and watch alot of the games and I am constantly frustrated. Fitz started producing well when Boldin was out. My question is, Will Calvin or Fitz put up huge numbers having Boldin and Roy. Williams beside them?If so, What caliber of running back is Calvin worth today? Calvin Was a Bad ### in College!Another Wr I think I can get terribly cheap is Harrison. In my eyes I think he is finished.Watching Gore's last couple of games I feel next year he may revert to 06 status. R. Bush should have had a huge year, if he was ever going to. I think he was a let down. Next year Duece will be back.I have Mark Clayton he has been a bumb.I have been eyeing L. Evans. His QB has been a huge issue, but may be fixed. What are your Thoughts on Lynch?With him hurt I feel you could get him cheap.

 

[gheemony]

I'm still working out some kinks, but I can't wait to take this one off the blocks and give it a test drive:

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/

What do you think?

Good to see it moved to another venue, but the font has to be changed. Courier (or whatever) is awful.

 

[valhallan]

F & L

Who would you be targeting right now as a good buy low ( a guy this year who is way under performing)

a few 6 or 7 pages ago you were talking about having guys that are playing at a top 25 level but could be playing at a top 10 level.

I would like to hear some names and thoughts you or any other guys might have.

A month ago you said Santana Moss was a good buy low do you still think so?

I read nearly every post in this Thread, and Love it. Tons of great insight and explanations.

One last question, this last year was our initial draft for our dynasty league. In the late rounds I drafted Micheal Bush and Kenny Irons. I noticed you had both these guys ranked somewhat high, so you must like them. What are your thoughts on Bush and Irons. What type of break away speed does these guys have?

Thanks, new-guru.I don't think I have Bush & Irons all that high. I figure they're both young, and they haven't failed yet in the NFL. They both may get a chance to carry the load at some point in the next year or two, which gives them more value than a veteran running on fumes or a role player likely to stay a part-timer. But I think the value in both cases is speculative, and I would count any real value down the road as a blessing. I just figure the possible upside here is a exactly what you should be doing with a dynasty league RB4 roster stash.

Guys who are way underperforming and could/should bounce back next season:

QB - McNabb, Bulger, Vince Young, Leinart, Rivers?, Kitna?

RB - Gore, R. Bush, FWP, MJD, Maroney

WR - Calvin Johnson & Roy Williams, L. Evans, Marvin Harrison, J. Walker?, S. Moss?, Ma. Clayton, R. Curry

TE - Heap!, B. Watson; if you can get them reasonably: V. Davis & G. Olsen

I don't know how much that helps without comments, but the possibilities are endless here. If you want to talk about somebody specifically, let us know.

All drafted by me in a start-up this year.. Of the receivers mentioned, I'd lean more toward Evans, Harrison, and S.Moss due to quarterback play. Edwards should improve, Manning is Manning, and Campbell was getting better before the injury.

I think Heap is the best candidate to rebound heavily next year. His value seems very low right now.

 

[Chunky Soup]

I'm still working out some kinks, but I can't wait to take this one off the blocks and give it a test drive:

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/

What do you think?

Two things:1) You need to do a lot of scrolling to see things on that site. The ranking in this forum the fonts and sizes are nice and easy to read. This is definitely an easy fix.

2) Not as interactive as the message board I guess you still plan to be active in this thread, but move the rankings elsewhere? Or not?

 

[stevegamer]

I'm still working out some kinks, but I can't wait to take this one off the blocks and give it a test drive:

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/

What do you think?

The thin black font on that medium gray is hard to read words - it's okay int he numerical area, where the font is white.I'd go with a heavier font, lighten the gray, or both.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm still working out some kinks, but I can't wait to take this one off the blocks and give it a test drive:

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/

What do you think?

Two things:1) You need to do a lot of scrolling to see things on that site. The ranking in this forum the fonts and sizes are nice and easy to read. This is definitely an easy fix.

2) Not as interactive as the message board I guess you still plan to be active in this thread, but move the rankings elsewhere? Or not?

I changed the font away from Courier (thanks, gheemony -- you're right, that was awful) and also went a little more basic with the font colors. The front page should be easier on the eye now.You're right that it's not as interactive. I'll continue to toy with it to make it as user-friendly as possible, but I'm kind of a noob at this blogging stuff.

I don't really have any solid plans right now. Starting a blog was something I've been putting off for two to three years, and since I have a break from school this week, it was as good of a time as any to finally jumpstart that project to see how it would play out.

Any tentative plans that I did consider with the blog certainly did not involve letting this thread wither on the vine so to speak. I hadn't planned on moving the actual rankings quite yet, but it's something I've considered here and there for various reasons not least of which is having tighter control over who uses the rankings and for what reasons.

 

[stevegamer]

I'm still working out some kinks, but I can't wait to take this one off the blocks and give it a test drive:

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/

What do you think?

Two things:1) You need to do a lot of scrolling to see things on that site. The ranking in this forum the fonts and sizes are nice and easy to read. This is definitely an easy fix.

2) Not as interactive as the message board I guess you still plan to be active in this thread, but move the rankings elsewhere? Or not?

I changed the font away from Courier (thanks, gheemony -- you're right, that was awful) and also went a little more basic with the font colors. The front page should be easier on the eye now.You're right that it's not as interactive. I'll continue to toy with it to make it as user-friendly as possible, but I'm kind of a noob at this blogging stuff.

I don't really have any solid plans right now. Starting a blog was something I've been putting off for two to three years, and since I have a break from school this week, it was as good of a time as any to finally jumpstart that project to see how it would play out.

Any tentative plans that I did consider with the blog certainly did not involve letting this thread wither on the vine so to speak. I hadn't planned on moving the actual rankings quite yet, but it's something I've considered here and there for various reasons not least of which is having tighter control over who uses the rankings and for what reasons.

I still think the font is too thin. I'd try Arial or Century.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Lane Kiffin wants Justin Fargas back:

Raiders coach Lane Kiffin says he'd like the team to re-sign impending free agent Justin Fargas this offseason.

"Justin is going to have a decision to make," Kiffin said. "He’s put himself in a situation where he is probably going to demand some good money on the market, so we’ll push to get him back, and hopefully he’ll be back." Fargas, who isn't expected to play again this season due to an MCL sprain, set career highs for rushing yards (1,009) and touchdowns (4) in 2007.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Lane Kiffin wants Justin Fargas back:

Raiders coach Lane Kiffin says he'd like the team to re-sign impending free agent Justin Fargas this offseason.

"Justin is going to have a decision to make," Kiffin said. "He’s put himself in a situation where he is probably going to demand some good money on the market, so we’ll push to get him back, and hopefully he’ll be back." Fargas, who isn't expected to play again this season due to an MCL sprain, set career highs for rushing yards (1,009) and touchdowns (4) in 2007.

He will make for a good backup/change of pace behind Bush.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Lane Kiffin wants Justin Fargas back:

Raiders coach Lane Kiffin says he'd like the team to re-sign impending free agent Justin Fargas this offseason.

"Justin is going to have a decision to make," Kiffin said. "He’s put himself in a situation where he is probably going to demand some good money on the market, so we’ll push to get him back, and hopefully he’ll be back." Fargas, who isn't expected to play again this season due to an MCL sprain, set career highs for rushing yards (1,009) and touchdowns (4) in 2007.

He will make for a good backup/change of pace behind Bush.

If Fargas re-signs with Oakland, I think it would be a significant upset to see Bush start over him going into the 2008 season. He might take over down the road, but after Fargas' success this season, he'd have to be considered the favorite to start.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Lane Kiffin wants Justin Fargas back:

Raiders coach Lane Kiffin says he'd like the team to re-sign impending free agent Justin Fargas this offseason.

"Justin is going to have a decision to make," Kiffin said. "He’s put himself in a situation where he is probably going to demand some good money on the market, so we’ll push to get him back, and hopefully he’ll be back." Fargas, who isn't expected to play again this season due to an MCL sprain, set career highs for rushing yards (1,009) and touchdowns (4) in 2007.

He will make for a good backup/change of pace behind Bush.

If Fargas re-signs with Oakland, I think it would be a significant upset to see Bush start over him going into the 2008 season. He might take over down the road, but after Fargas' success this season, he'd have to be considered the favorite to start.

Possibly, but i think it would be the best case scenario for Bush if the Raiders go into next season with just Fargas as his only real competition.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Lane Kiffin wants Justin Fargas back:

Raiders coach Lane Kiffin says he'd like the team to re-sign impending free agent Justin Fargas this offseason.

"Justin is going to have a decision to make," Kiffin said. "He’s put himself in a situation where he is probably going to demand some good money on the market, so we’ll push to get him back, and hopefully he’ll be back." Fargas, who isn't expected to play again this season due to an MCL sprain, set career highs for rushing yards (1,009) and touchdowns (4) in 2007.

He will make for a good backup/change of pace behind Bush.

If Fargas re-signs with Oakland, I think it would be a significant upset to see Bush start over him going into the 2008 season. He might take over down the road, but after Fargas' success this season, he'd have to be considered the favorite to start.

Possibly, but i think it would be the best case scenario for Bush if the Raiders go into next season with just Fargas as his only real competition.

Oh yeah, I certainly agree with that. Fargas has never been reliable or consistent, and you can count on an opening for Bush at some point due to a Fargas injury.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Steven Jackson is a beast . This is the first time all year I've seen him look fully 100%. He's running like he did to close out last season.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Lane Kiffin wants Justin Fargas back:

Raiders coach Lane Kiffin says he'd like the team to re-sign impending free agent Justin Fargas this offseason.

"Justin is going to have a decision to make," Kiffin said. "He’s put himself in a situation where he is probably going to demand some good money on the market, so we’ll push to get him back, and hopefully he’ll be back." Fargas, who isn't expected to play again this season due to an MCL sprain, set career highs for rushing yards (1,009) and touchdowns (4) in 2007.

He will make for a good backup/change of pace behind Bush.

Right.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Steven Jackson is a beast . This is the first time all year I've seen him look fully 100%. He's running like he did to close out last season.

Edit to add: I'm keeping a game-notes log at the Dynasty Rankings Blog tonight if anybody wants to stop by. Unfortunately, I don't have the NFL network, so I'm covering this off of NFL.com/Live.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Steven Jackson is a beast . This is the first time all year I've seen him look fully 100%. He's running like he did to close out last season.

Edit to add: I'm keeping a game-notes log at the Dynasty Rankings Blog tonight if anybody wants to stop by. Unfortunately, I don't have the NFL network, so I'm covering this off of NFL.com/Live.

He looks every bit as good as his stats, if not better.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Steven Jackson is a beast . This is the first time all year I've seen him look fully 100%. He's running like he did to close out last season.

Edit to add: I'm keeping a game-notes log at the Dynasty Rankings Blog tonight if anybody wants to stop by. Unfortunately, I don't have the NFL network, so I'm covering this off of NFL.com/Live.

He looks every bit as good as his stats, if not better.

They're showing part of the game live, but then they annoyingly send it back to the studio for chunks of time as we're subjected to chuckleheads Rod Woodson and Jamie Dukes' "analysis."Oh well, it beats following the line up-and-down the field on gamecenter.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Don't know if he's been discussed in a while, but I'd throw TJ Duckett out there as a guy who might be undervalued a bit.

Why?

He's youngish.

He's shown some serious flashes in his career of being a good back (along with some flashes of being useless to be honest).

He's looked quite good recently.

He's a FA - you just don't know where he might end up (that's good and bad of course, but for lower-tier guys big changes are something to look for).

Throughout his career, even in the bad times, he's been a decent "hope he gets a TD" fill-in in a pinch. He's an excellent goal-line option and always has been.

IF he ends up in Detroit...

Kevin Jones is not a lock to be there (in his last year of contract and has expressed interest in moving on), and if he is, Duckett quite honestly looks just as good if not better (never been Jones fan). Detroit won't draft a RB with a high pick, the team rules indicate the team's first draft pick MUST be used on a WR.

Detroit RBs have put up a combined 11 rushing TDs this year. Not a huge number, but not bad either for a "passing team".

Just think I'd rather take a shot on him (at a value of "1") than a ton of guys in front of him. Examples:

Tatum Bell - I was willing to give Bell a shot this year because I don't like Jones, but Duckett outplayed him easily.

Dom Rhodes - 29 year old FA who has had exactly one good year (6 or 7 years ago now) in a supremely good offense and has looked like crap since.

JJ Arington - I was an apologist at one point because Arizona is a HARD place to play RB, but he just sucks.

Lamont Jordan - not a lot of difference between Jordan and Duckett except that Jordan is older and has chronic back problems and other health issues.

Kenton Keith, the 27 year old rookie sensation - ONLY has value because of where he is, but who know if he will even be on the team next year. When will he be replaced with another scrub next year for whatever reason? Does anyone remember the name of the guy who was supposed to be the backup this year and was probably ranked last year at this time about where Keith is right now?

Jesse Chatman - looked good for a while, but again, he's a 28 year old career backup on bad team. Maybe 3rd or 4th string next year. Hard to say.

Tony Hunt - has been active 5 of 15 games and has a 1.6 YPC. Guy just doesn't have the skills to be NFL feature runner.

Droughns - another 29 year old who had exactly one good year as a system back in Denver. It's been obvious this year in NY he's the least talented back on the team.

There are more, but that gives some of my thinking behind Duckett is a worthy flyer for basically nothing. I wouldn't spend a lot to get Duckett, it's just that I'd rather have him than a lot of the lower tier guys in front of him.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Don't know if he's been discussed in a while, but I'd throw TJ Duckett out there as a guy who might be undervalued a bit.Why?He's youngish.He's shown some serious flashes in his career of being a good back (along with some flashes of being useless to be honest).He's looked quite good recently.He's a FA - you just don't know where he might end up (that's good and bad of course, but for lower-tier guys big changes are something to look for).Throughout his career, even in the bad times, he's been a decent "hope he gets a TD" fill-in in a pinch. He's an excellent goal-line option and always has been.IF he ends up in Detroit...Kevin Jones is not a lock to be there (in his last year of contract and has expressed interest in moving on), and if he is, Duckett quite honestly looks just as good if not better (never been Jones fan). Detroit won't draft a RB with a high pick, the team rules indicate the team's first draft pick MUST be used on a WR.Detroit RBs have put up a combined 11 rushing TDs this year. Not a huge number, but not bad either for a "passing team".Just think I'd rather take a shot on him (at a value of "1") than a ton of guys in front of him. Examples:Tatum Bell - I was willing to give Bell a shot this year because I don't like Jones, but Duckett outplayed him easily.Dom Rhodes - 29 year old FA who has had exactly one good year (6 or 7 years ago now) in a supremely good offense and has looked like crap since.JJ Arington - I was an apologist at one point because Arizona is a HARD place to play RB, but he just sucks.Lamont Jordan - not a lot of difference between Jordan and Duckett except that Jordan is older and has chronic back problems and other health issues.Kenton Keith, the 27 year old rookie sensation - ONLY has value because of where he is, but who know if he will even be on the team next year. When will he be replaced with another scrub next year for whatever reason? Does anyone remember the name of the guy who was supposed to be the backup this year and was probably ranked last year at this time about where Keith is right now?Jesse Chatman - looked good for a while, but again, he's a 28 year old career backup on bad team. Maybe 3rd or 4th string next year. Hard to say.Tony Hunt - has been active 5 of 15 games and has a 1.6 YPC. Guy just doesn't have the skills to be NFL feature runner.Droughns - another 29 year old who had exactly one good year as a system back in Denver. It's been obvious this year in NY he's the least talented back on the team.There are more, but that gives some of my thinking behind Duckett is a worthy flyer for basically nothing. I wouldn't spend a lot to get Duckett, it's just that I'd rather have him than a lot of the lower tier guys in front of him.

This is the one statement I most agree with:"He's a FA - you just don't know where he might end up (that's good and bad of course, but for lower-tier guys big changes are something to look for)."I think it's highly unlikely that Duckett ever has value again unless you play in an ultra-basic, TD-heavy scoring league, but changes in scenery have been known to jumpstart a player whose value has been run off in a ditch (i.e. Travis Henry). Re: comparison to the other guys on your list. I definitely wouldn't take him ahead of LaMont Jordan, whom I believe could see something closer to full-time work if he bounces into the right situation. I'd' much rather carry Kenton Keith, who could put up very startable numbers if Addai goes down for any period of time. I'm done with Tatum Bell, but I like him a lot better than Duckett in a yardage league. J.J. Arrington's one chance came when the Cardinals O-Line couldn't open up holes for anyone. His head coach raves about him, and he's already worked his way into stealing Edge's 3rd down work. I'd rather take a chance on him getting another shot than roll with Duckett. Jesse Chatman isn't much different than Duckett except that he's been startable for several games since Ronnie Brown went down. I'm sure he'll drop in the rankings as soon as the season is over.

 

[SSOG]

Don't know if he's been discussed in a while, but I'd throw TJ Duckett out there as a guy who might be undervalued a bit.Why?He's youngish.He's shown some serious flashes in his career of being a good back (along with some flashes of being useless to be honest).He's looked quite good recently.He's a FA - you just don't know where he might end up (that's good and bad of course, but for lower-tier guys big changes are something to look for).Throughout his career, even in the bad times, he's been a decent "hope he gets a TD" fill-in in a pinch. He's an excellent goal-line option and always has been.IF he ends up in Detroit...Kevin Jones is not a lock to be there (in his last year of contract and has expressed interest in moving on), and if he is, Duckett quite honestly looks just as good if not better (never been Jones fan). Detroit won't draft a RB with a high pick, the team rules indicate the team's first draft pick MUST be used on a WR.Detroit RBs have put up a combined 11 rushing TDs this year. Not a huge number, but not bad either for a "passing team".Just think I'd rather take a shot on him (at a value of "1") than a ton of guys in front of him. Examples:Tatum Bell - I was willing to give Bell a shot this year because I don't like Jones, but Duckett outplayed him easily.Dom Rhodes - 29 year old FA who has had exactly one good year (6 or 7 years ago now) in a supremely good offense and has looked like crap since.JJ Arington - I was an apologist at one point because Arizona is a HARD place to play RB, but he just sucks.Lamont Jordan - not a lot of difference between Jordan and Duckett except that Jordan is older and has chronic back problems and other health issues.Kenton Keith, the 27 year old rookie sensation - ONLY has value because of where he is, but who know if he will even be on the team next year. When will he be replaced with another scrub next year for whatever reason? Does anyone remember the name of the guy who was supposed to be the backup this year and was probably ranked last year at this time about where Keith is right now?Jesse Chatman - looked good for a while, but again, he's a 28 year old career backup on bad team. Maybe 3rd or 4th string next year. Hard to say.Tony Hunt - has been active 5 of 15 games and has a 1.6 YPC. Guy just doesn't have the skills to be NFL feature runner.Droughns - another 29 year old who had exactly one good year as a system back in Denver. It's been obvious this year in NY he's the least talented back on the team.There are more, but that gives some of my thinking behind Duckett is a worthy flyer for basically nothing. I wouldn't spend a lot to get Duckett, it's just that I'd rather have him than a lot of the lower tier guys in front of him.

I like free agent backs... the FIRST time they're free agents. If they become free agents, generate no interest, can't find a job better than 3rd string anywhere (okay, 2.5th string because of KJ's injury), and then don't produce any once in that new job, I ask myself why anything would be any different the second time around.I like Mewelde Moore because he's a free agent, but if he goes to, say, Oakland and rots behind Fargas and Bush on a 1-year contract, then hits the free agent market again next year, I'm not going to be too high on his prospects. Besides, T.J. Duckett hasn't really shown anything on the field. He had one decent season in Atlanta, but spent a lot of time wasting away in Atlanta, went to Washington and spent a lot of time wasting away there (despite getting some opportunity to shine given the price that was paid for him and the injuries ahead of him on the depth chart), then went to Detroit and wasted away there behind TATUM BELL (who is himself another shining example of wasting away on a roster). When a player does so little producing and so much wasting, eventually that's what they become- a waste. In this case, a waste of a roster spot.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I like free agent backs... the FIRST time they're free agents. If they become free agents, generate no interest, can't find a job better than 3rd string anywhere (okay, 2.5th string because of KJ's injury), and then don't produce any once in that new job, I ask myself why anything would be any different the second time around.I like Mewelde Moore because he's a free agent, but if he goes to, say, Oakland and rots behind Fargas and Bush on a 1-year contract, then hits the free agent market again next year, I'm not going to be too high on his prospects. Besides, T.J. Duckett hasn't really shown anything on the field. He had one decent season in Atlanta, but spent a lot of time wasting away in Atlanta, went to Washington and spent a lot of time wasting away there (despite getting some opportunity to shine given the price that was paid for him and the injuries ahead of him on the depth chart), then went to Detroit and wasted away there behind TATUM BELL (who is himself another shining example of wasting away on a roster). When a player does so little producing and so much wasting, eventually that's what they become- a waste. In this case, a waste of a roster spot.

<_< My thoughts exactly. Very well said.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Don't know if he's been discussed in a while, but I'd throw TJ Duckett out there as a guy who might be undervalued a bit.Why?He's youngish.He's shown some serious flashes in his career of being a good back (along with some flashes of being useless to be honest).He's looked quite good recently.He's a FA - you just don't know where he might end up (that's good and bad of course, but for lower-tier guys big changes are something to look for).Throughout his career, even in the bad times, he's been a decent "hope he gets a TD" fill-in in a pinch. He's an excellent goal-line option and always has been.IF he ends up in Detroit...Kevin Jones is not a lock to be there (in his last year of contract and has expressed interest in moving on), and if he is, Duckett quite honestly looks just as good if not better (never been Jones fan). Detroit won't draft a RB with a high pick, the team rules indicate the team's first draft pick MUST be used on a WR.Detroit RBs have put up a combined 11 rushing TDs this year. Not a huge number, but not bad either for a "passing team".Just think I'd rather take a shot on him (at a value of "1") than a ton of guys in front of him. Examples:Tatum Bell - I was willing to give Bell a shot this year because I don't like Jones, but Duckett outplayed him easily.Dom Rhodes - 29 year old FA who has had exactly one good year (6 or 7 years ago now) in a supremely good offense and has looked like crap since.JJ Arington - I was an apologist at one point because Arizona is a HARD place to play RB, but he just sucks.Lamont Jordan - not a lot of difference between Jordan and Duckett except that Jordan is older and has chronic back problems and other health issues.Kenton Keith, the 27 year old rookie sensation - ONLY has value because of where he is, but who know if he will even be on the team next year. When will he be replaced with another scrub next year for whatever reason? Does anyone remember the name of the guy who was supposed to be the backup this year and was probably ranked last year at this time about where Keith is right now?Jesse Chatman - looked good for a while, but again, he's a 28 year old career backup on bad team. Maybe 3rd or 4th string next year. Hard to say.Tony Hunt - has been active 5 of 15 games and has a 1.6 YPC. Guy just doesn't have the skills to be NFL feature runner.Droughns - another 29 year old who had exactly one good year as a system back in Denver. It's been obvious this year in NY he's the least talented back on the team.There are more, but that gives some of my thinking behind Duckett is a worthy flyer for basically nothing. I wouldn't spend a lot to get Duckett, it's just that I'd rather have him than a lot of the lower tier guys in front of him.

This is the one statement I most agree with:"He's a FA - you just don't know where he might end up (that's good and bad of course, but for lower-tier guys big changes are something to look for)."I think it's highly unlikely that Duckett ever has value again unless you play in an ultra-basic, TD-heavy scoring league, but changes in scenery have been known to jumpstart a player whose value has been run off in a ditch (i.e. Travis Henry). Re: comparison to the other guys on your list. I definitely wouldn't take him ahead of LaMont Jordan, whom I believe could see something closer to full-time work if he bounces into the right situation. I'd' much rather carry Kenton Keith, who could put up very startable numbers if Addai goes down for any period of time. I'm done with Tatum Bell, but I like him a lot better than Duckett in a yardage league. J.J. Arrington's one chance came when the Cardinals O-Line couldn't open up holes for anyone. His head coach raves about him, and he's already worked his way into stealing Edge's 3rd down work. I'd rather take a chance on him getting another shot than roll with Duckett. Jesse Chatman isn't much different than Duckett except that he's been startable for several games since Ronnie Brown went down. I'm sure he'll drop in the rankings as soon as the season is over.

On the comparisons:Jordan: We just differ here. Jordan is done, done, done. Doesn't matter where he goes. He hasn't looked decent since the back injury a couple of years ago and even aside from that, he's carried a 3.8 average in each of the last 3 years (all three of his years as a starter). Not what I'm looking for in a 29 year old currently 3rd string RB. Fargas has showed us just how ineffective Jordan really was. Turns out it WASN'T all the team and the scheme.Keith: I get what you are saying with the good numbers with an injury. Where I differ is that I don't think he's even the long-term backup for Addai. Indy will bring in more backs next year and there's a VERY good chance one of them will be better than Keith. If this was the beginning of the year, I could agree with you, but at this point, there's just too good a chance that Keith will be completely worthless next September.Tatum Bell I don't understand at all, in ANY kind of league. He blew his chance. He's a 3rd stringer right now and with good reason, both Duckett and Jones have looked better on the same team in the same situations. He hasn't even been active for most of the season. Why would you rather have a 3rd stringer over the 2nd stringer on the same team, when the 2nd stringer has looked a LOT better? The two are about the same age, and Duckett has the better pedigree (not that it matters much a this point, just saying that can't be a reason to prefer Bell). Just can't figure this one.Arrington: I started a thread making the same excuses for Arrington a year or two ago. I had him on every team I had. But every time I actually watched him play, I was disappointed. Eventually I cut bait with him entirely. The coaches can say whatever they want, but actions speak louder than words. So he is starting to get 3rd down carries after 3 years? OK, so he might eventually make a decent 3rd down back. But he has shown zero indication that he could ever be a viable starter. Not so with Duckett.Chatman: What can I say? He is what he is - a 28 year old backup that got an opportunity and looked decent on a good runing team. Can't really argue mutch if you like his chances of eventually starting more than Duckett's. I just don't see it. Brown is the clear #1, and Gado could just as easily as Chatman be #2 next year.Just my thoughts on these RELATIVE rankings. Again, as I said before, I wouldn't spend a lot to get Duckett. I'm just saying he has shown enough to think there is a small but reasonable chance that he could make a move and become a starter. He's young enough and maybe talented enough to do it. For the guys we have been talking about (among others), I see a much smaller chance of that happening (bordering on no chance for some of them).

 

[Donnybrook]

[1] Mike Bell DEN 24.4

I guess that this might be his value if stays with the Broncos but happens if he is released. I can't imagine that he would have a significant signing bonus so the Broncos may be able to release him without penalty. I also can't see why they wouldn't if they have better options and he is just taking up space on the bench. He could have Reuban Droughns circa 2006 type value if he finds a good home. I will be holding Bell on my roster probably until the NFL draft is sorted.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

[1] Mike Bell DEN 24.4

I guess that this might be his value if stays with the Broncos but happens if he is released. I can't imagine that he would have a significant signing bonus so the Broncos may be able to release him without penalty. I also can't see why they wouldn't if they have better options and he is just taking up space on the bench. He could have Reuban Droughns circa 2006 type value if he finds a good home.

I will be holding Bell on my roster probably until the NFL draft is sorted.

In a nutshell, you've hit on the reasons for his negligible value. What you said about him could also be said for any non-starting RB on the list. If they get cut and go to another team, maybe they get a chance to impress somebody and a share of the load. But what's that package worth?

It seems to me like you've gone out of your way to convince yourself that Mike Bell could have value if things fall perfectly when you could convince yourself the same about any RB out there.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

[1] Mike Bell DEN 24.4

I guess that this might be his value if stays with the Broncos but happens if he is released. I can't imagine that he would have a significant signing bonus so the Broncos may be able to release him without penalty. I also can't see why they wouldn't if they have better options and he is just taking up space on the bench. He could have Reuban Droughns circa 2006 type value if he finds a good home. I will be holding Bell on my roster probably until the NFL draft is sorted.

If he is released he may well be out of the league. He's certainly not going to go somewhere as a starter. He's what, the 5th string RB in Denver right now? Henry, Young, Hall, Sapp all have more carries than Mike this year.His total carries this year are as follows:1 carry for 3 yards, and 5 more carries netting 0 yards. Oh, and he lost a fumble on one of them. Good times.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I added some player notes on Deuce McAllister, Larry Fitzgerald, and Brent Celek to the new blog. I also expanded on the Willie Parker discussion.

Here's a look at how the rankings look on the blog. Check it out, yo.

Also planning on tackling Bill Simmons' state of the quarterbacks article from yesterday.

Edit to add: I'll try to keep a game notes log from Dallas v. Carolina on the front page tonight as well.

 

[EBF]

Some notes on today's action:

- Pretty brutal day for Trent Edwards. He came out of the gates on fire and then hit the wall big time. I still think he's shown enough flashes to warrant optimism in dynasty leagues. My philosophy on him is to keep him in the same general range as guys like Rodgers, Quinn, and Russell. If he doesn't show marked improvement over the first 3-4 games of 2008 then it's time to worry.

- Laurent Robinson finally had his first big game in the NFL. He's quietly had a pretty decent rookie season for an unheralded 3rd round WR from a D1AA school. Before the season started I said he had a chance to develop into an effective NFL WR in the Reggie Wayne/Darrell Jackson/Chad Johnson mold. I like his skill set and think he's a good guy to target in dynasty drafts this offseason. He had some of the best combine numbers of any WR in his draft class and he seems to be capable of translating those skills into production. Everyone knows about Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, Sidney Rice, and Anthony Gonzalez. But this kid might represent the best value of the sophomore WRs this offseason.

- Nice to see Boldin have a big game. This is a good example of why you don't trade your studs when they're in a slump. Guy has been a beast from the moment he stepped on the field as a rookie and will continue to be a beast until injuries or old age catch up with him.

- Derek Anderson with another stinker. He deserves a little bit of a pass this season since it's his first as a starter, but if I owned this guy in one of my dynasty leagues I'd be looking to find a believer and make a deal. I see little upside here and lots of downside.

- This season has made me do a double take on Carson Palmer. He's been good for a lot of TD passes the last three years, but is he really an elite QB? His QB rating has dropped each season since his brilliant second year as a starter. And while I wouldn't trip over myself to trade him for David Carr, I'm wondering where I would rank him with guys like Romo, Roethlisberger, and Brees. He's having a rough year and will likely bounce back in the future, but I don't think he's quite as good as we all thought he was. Still a no-brainer top 10 dynasty QB though. Just not the QB2 people thought he was.

- Jamarcus Russell gives me bust vibes. I can't explain why and I have no real evidence to support my stance, but I've felt from the moment he was drafted that Oakland made a mistake.

- Interesting to see Ahmad Bradshaw make a big play. I was a pretty big skeptic when people starting posting about him after the draft, but he generated a pretty positive buzz throughout the offseason. He must have shown the Giants something because they kept him over Ryan Grant. He strikes me as a good flyer since he's generally looked good when given the chance.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Some notes on today's action:

- Laurent Robinson finally had his first big game in the NFL. He's quietly had a pretty decent rookie season for an unheralded 3rd round WR from a D1AA school. Before the season started I said he had a chance to develop into an effective NFL WR in the Reggie Wayne/Darrell Jackson/Chad Johnson mold. I like his skill set and think he's a good guy to target in dynasty drafts this offseason. He had some of the best combine numbers of any WR in his draft class and he seems to be capable of translating those skills into production. Everyone knows about Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, Sidney Rice, and Anthony Gonzalez. But this kid might represent the best value of the sophomore WRs this offseason.

- Nice to see Boldin have a big game. This is a good example of why you don't trade your studs when they're in a slump. Guy has been a beast from the moment he stepped on the field as a rookie and will continue to be a beast until injuries or old age catch up with him.

Good posting. I covered this game. My notes:

- Laurent Robinson was more heavily involved in the passing game than he's been all season. He flat-out burned Antrel Rolle on the 74-yard bomb for a touchdown. With Joe Horn about to be sent out to pasture and Michael Jenkins an underwhelming #2 WR, Robinson is going to be given a larger role going forward. I agree with your comparison to a Darrell Jackson type of WR.

- If you didn't see this game, Anquan Boldin actually looked better than the boxscore shows. He made spectacular catch after spectacular catch, several of them one-handed, while showing off his usual strength and athleticism. No doubt he has the talent to be a Top 5 dynasty WR, especially if Fitz keeps drawing the opposing team's strongest corner. However, the talent has never been an issue with me. Boldin just seems to disappear too often due to injuries and inconsistency to be a truly reliable WR1 in dynasty leagues. Reliability is the #1 factor for me in the difference between WR1 and WR2. Boldin is a high end WR2.

- Derek Anderson with another stinker. He deserves a little bit of a pass this season since it's his first as a starter, but if I owned this guy in one of my dynasty leagues I'd be looking to find a believer and make a deal. I see little upside here and lots of downside.

- This season has made me do a double take on Carson Palmer. He's been good for a lot of TD passes the last three years, but is he really an elite QB? His QB rating has dropped each season since his brilliant second year as a starter. And while I wouldn't trip over myself to trade him for David Carr, I'm wondering where I would rank him with guys like Romo, Roethlisberger, and Brees. He's having a rough year and will likely bounce back in the future, but I don't think he's quite as good as we all thought he was. Still a no-brainer top 10 dynasty QB though. Just not the QB2 people thought he was.

- Jamarcus Russell gives me bust vibes. I can't explain why and I have no real evidence to support my stance, but I've felt from the moment he was drafted that Oakland made a mistake.

- Interesting to see Ahmad Bradshaw make a big play. I was a pretty big skeptic when people starting posting about him after the draft, but he generated a pretty positive buzz throughout the offseason. He must have shown the Giants something because they kept him over Ryan Grant. He strikes me as a good flyer since he's generally looked good when given the chance.

- I agree on Derek Anderson. The time to deal him was a month ago. If you couldn't pull the trigger on selling him high, congratulations! You're stuck with Jake Delhomme. - Re: Palmer. Me too. I bristled at Bill Simmons' Friday article putting Palmer and Eli in the same category, but there's no doubt he's not the same QB since his knee injury. I talked to a good friend and rabid Bengals' homer this morning before the game, and I asked him about Palmer. He thinks it's a combination of things, but ultimately that we've probably seen his best and it was 2005. I moved Roethlisberger up to #3 on the blog, and there's no way I'd give him up for Palmer right now. I wouldn't give up Big Ben for Romo either.

- I covered the OAK/JAX game today too. It was easy to break down JaMarcus Russell's performance. Anyone can see that he is oozing talent and has a cannon arm, but his footwork is atrocious. Basically, whenever he planted and threw, he threw well. Unfortunately, he threw off his back foot on the majority of his pass attempts including all three of his interceptions. That's going to be a major problem for him if he can't fix it. On the positive side, he had a nice garbage time drive where he did manage to keep his feet set and which resulted in his first career touchdown pass to Zach Miller.

Edit to add: I should also note that the announcers quoted Dominic Rhodes saying he was very impressed with JaMarcus Russell. Rhodes called him a smart QB and said he would be a man among boys with a full training camp under his belt. Worth mentioning.

- Ahmad Bradshaw's highest dynasty value ever may be right this second. What are the odds he ever rushes for 140 yards in a game again the rest of his career, especially with Jacobs in front of him? Sell high, and sell fast.

 

[gianmarco]

Speaking of Jacobs.....

This guy is pretty darn impressive. If he can stay healthy....

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Speaking of Jacobs.....This guy is pretty darn impressive. If he can stay healthy....

Oh yeah, that's always been the question with me. But he's an even better runner than I thought.

 

[SSOG]

Some notes on today's action:- Pretty brutal day for Trent Edwards. He came out of the gates on fire and then hit the wall big time. I still think he's shown enough flashes to warrant optimism in dynasty leagues. My philosophy on him is to keep him in the same general range as guys like Rodgers, Quinn, and Russell. If he doesn't show marked improvement over the first 3-4 games of 2008 then it's time to worry.

My rule of thumb for QBs is 25-30 games. If, after 25-30 games, a qb isn't a top-10 QB, it's time to sell and sell FAST before the bottom drops out. Looking at the historical life of stud QBs, almost all top-10 fantasy QBs (something like 80+%) make it into the top 10 within their first two seasons (or 32 games) as a starter. It might be a little bit aggressive, and obviously it would need to be done on a case-by-case basis; for instance, I definitely wouldn't be ready to firesale Cutler despite the fact that he was outside of the top 10 entering this week, partly because Cutler has shown so much on the field, partly because Cutler's 11th and might as well be top-10, and partly because it's been a strong year for QBs (Cutler's on pace for 271 points this year, which would rank him 11th in 2007, but would have been good for 7th place in either 2006 or 2005). Still, someone like Alex Smith or J.P. Losman would have been on my "must sell" list entering this year, someone like Jason Campbell would have just made it onto my "must sell" list, and someone like Matt Leinart will soon find himself on that list if he doesn't shape up bigtime when he makes it back onto the field. And the beauty is that it's early enough that there's always some sucker willing to give these guys just one more year to turn it around. Just look back at the beginning of the year to all the threads about how J.P. Losman and Alex Smith were great buy-low targets because they were super-talented and the light still might come on.

- Jamarcus Russell gives me bust vibes. I can't explain why and I have no real evidence to support my stance, but I've felt from the moment he was drafted that Oakland made a mistake.

As an SEC fan, I had the exact same feelings. I felt the same way about Chad Jackson coming out, too (and I'm actually a Florida fan). It's nice that a guy has all the tools and all, but if he can't put it together and dominate COLLEGE competition, how is he going to get it done in the pros? Remember, going into his last season of college, a lot of people thought he wasn't even the best QB ON HIS OWN TEAM. He almost lost his starting job for good to some guy that none of us have ever heard from since. Not a good sign for the #1 overall draft pick.Few players look as good as JaMarcus Russell when they're playing well, but Russell never played well against comparable talent in college, and that scares me about his prospects as a pro.

 

[SSOG]

Also, on your blog, you asked where this season came from from Spicer. Jacksonville's the nearest NFL market to me, and I'm a huge Jones-Drew fan, so I see a lot of their games, and Spicer has quietly been a very, very good DE for a long time. He's never been this good before- this is a career year- but very, very good. The only reasons you don't hear more about him is because a) he plays in Jacksonville, which is an NFL black hole, b) he gets overshadowed by his large (and mildly overrated) teammates at DT in Henderson and Stroud and his statuesque (and VERY overrated) teammate at DE in Reggie Hayward, and c) injuries.

 

[dmac37]

Speaking of Jacobs.....This guy is pretty darn impressive. If he can stay healthy....

I agree, but the "IF" is why I picked up Bradshaw a few weeks ago in my dynasty. Read a lot of good things about Bradshaw's foot work and shuttle drill workouts, worth a flyer.

 

[az_prof]

1) THanks for the heads-up on Robinson--I have given up on Jenkins and if Atlanta gets a QB, who knows?

2) DA? I don't understand why you and Ssog seem to think he sucks so much. In fact, by SSog's rule (top 10 within first two years of starting) DA is the real deal because he is top 10 his first year.

3) Bradshaw proved he is capable of carrying the load next year when Jacobs gets hurt, and we know that Jacobs will get hurt. With Ward and Droughns likely gone next year and now having seen what Bradshaw can do, I see him as a very high dynasty player. I wouldn't trade him for lots of players in the tier above him.

Some notes on today's action:

- Laurent Robinson finally had his first big game in the NFL. He's quietly had a pretty decent rookie season for an unheralded 3rd round WR from a D1AA school. Before the season started I said he had a chance to develop into an effective NFL WR in the Reggie Wayne/Darrell Jackson/Chad Johnson mold. I like his skill set and think he's a good guy to target in dynasty drafts this offseason. He had some of the best combine numbers of any WR in his draft class and he seems to be capable of translating those skills into production. Everyone knows about Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, Sidney Rice, and Anthony Gonzalez. But this kid might represent the best value of the sophomore WRs this offseason.

- Nice to see Boldin have a big game. This is a good example of why you don't trade your studs when they're in a slump. Guy has been a beast from the moment he stepped on the field as a rookie and will continue to be a beast until injuries or old age catch up with him.

Good posting. I covered this game. My notes:

- Laurent Robinson was more heavily involved in the passing game than he's been all season. He flat-out burned Antrel Rolle on the 74-yard bomb for a touchdown. With Joe Horn about to be sent out to pasture and Michael Jenkins an underwhelming #2 WR, Robinson is going to be given a larger role going forward. I agree with your comparison to a Darrell Jackson type of WR.

- If you didn't see this game, Anquan Boldin actually looked better than the boxscore shows. He made spectacular catch after spectacular catch, several of them one-handed, while showing off his usual strength and athleticism. No doubt he has the talent to be a Top 5 dynasty WR, especially if Fitz keeps drawing the opposing team's strongest corner. However, the talent has never been an issue with me. Boldin just seems to disappear too often due to injuries and inconsistency to be a truly reliable WR1 in dynasty leagues. Reliability is the #1 factor for me in the difference between WR1 and WR2. Boldin is a high end WR2.

- Derek Anderson with another stinker. He deserves a little bit of a pass this season since it's his first as a starter, but if I owned this guy in one of my dynasty leagues I'd be looking to find a believer and make a deal. I see little upside here and lots of downside.

- This season has made me do a double take on Carson Palmer. He's been good for a lot of TD passes the last three years, but is he really an elite QB? His QB rating has dropped each season since his brilliant second year as a starter. And while I wouldn't trip over myself to trade him for David Carr, I'm wondering where I would rank him with guys like Romo, Roethlisberger, and Brees. He's having a rough year and will likely bounce back in the future, but I don't think he's quite as good as we all thought he was. Still a no-brainer top 10 dynasty QB though. Just not the QB2 people thought he was.

- Jamarcus Russell gives me bust vibes. I can't explain why and I have no real evidence to support my stance, but I've felt from the moment he was drafted that Oakland made a mistake.

- Interesting to see Ahmad Bradshaw make a big play. I was a pretty big skeptic when people starting posting about him after the draft, but he generated a pretty positive buzz throughout the offseason. He must have shown the Giants something because they kept him over Ryan Grant. He strikes me as a good flyer since he's generally looked good when given the chance.

- I agree on Derek Anderson. The time to deal him was a month ago. If you couldn't pull the trigger on selling him high, congratulations! You're stuck with Jake Delhomme. - Re: Palmer. Me too. I bristled at Bill Simmons' Friday article putting Palmer and Eli in the same category, but there's no doubt he's not the same QB since his knee injury. I talked to a good friend and rabid Bengals' homer this morning before the game, and I asked him about Palmer. He thinks it's a combination of things, but ultimately that we've probably seen his best and it was 2005. I moved Roethlisberger up to #3 on the blog, and there's no way I'd give him up for Palmer right now. I wouldn't give up Big Ben for Romo either.

- I covered the OAK/JAX game today too. It was easy to break down JaMarcus Russell's performance. Anyone can see that he is oozing talent and has a cannon arm, but his footwork is atrocious. Basically, whenever he planted and threw, he threw well. Unfortunately, he threw off his back foot on the majority of his pass attempts including all three of his interceptions. That's going to be a major problem for him if he can't fix it. On the positive side, he had a nice garbage time drive where he did manage to keep his feet set and which resulted in his first career touchdown pass to Zach Miller.

Edit to add: I should also note that the announcers quoted Dominic Rhodes saying he was very impressed with JaMarcus Russell. Rhodes called him a smart QB and said he would be a man among boys with a full training camp under his belt. Worth mentioning.

- Ahmad Bradshaw's highest dynasty value ever may be right this second. What are the odds he ever rushes for 140 yards in a game again the rest of his career, especially with Jacobs in front of him? Sell high, and sell fast.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I remember watching the Dolphins-Chiefs preseason game, and Jaws was shocked at how badly the Chiefs were trying to rig the QB competition so Croyle could win it...something to the effect of "you're not really having a QB competition if you're only allowing one of the QBs to compete."

Remember this as well. Simply embarrassing. All that said, I don't really know if we know any more about Croyle than we knew before the year.

 

[gheemony]

I remember watching the Dolphins-Chiefs preseason game, and Jaws was shocked at how badly the Chiefs were trying to rig the QB competition so Croyle could win it...something to the effect of "you're not really having a QB competition if you're only allowing one of the QBs to compete."

Remember this as well. Simply embarrassing. All that said, I don't really know if we know any more about Croyle than we knew before the year.

How well Tony Gonzalez's already stellar career ends (and how long it lasts) depends on the Croyle decision. He took off today once Croyle got hurt. Croyle is awful. If he's the starter next year, I'm moving Bowe and Gonzo down.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

2) DA? I don't understand why you and Ssog seem to think he sucks so much. In fact, by SSog's rule (top 10 within first two years of starting) DA is the real deal because he is top 10 his first year.

3) Bradshaw proved he is capable of carrying the load next year when Jacobs gets hurt, and we know that Jacobs will get hurt. With Ward and Droughns likely gone next year and now having seen what Bradshaw can do, I see him as a very high dynasty player. I wouldn't trade him for lots of players in the tier above him.

2) Sucks? Sound the melodrama alert here. Nobody is saying Derek Anderson sucks. Far from it. What I'm saying is that he's closer to the new Jake Delhomme than he is to the next stud QB. I would never call Delhomme a QB who sucks. Grossman, Croyle, Boller: those guys suck. You can go back and read what I said about Anderson, so I don't have to repeat it again and again, but in a nutshell I simply said that he's likely to have a few seasons where he puts up very good fantasy numbers but that his weaknesses will keep him from being a franchise QB. That's not really what I'm after in a starting QB for dynasty leagues. How you can extrapolate "sucks" out of what we've said is beyond me, but I know in this hobby we do like to get worked up about other people not giving "love" to our favorite players.3) Wait, what? Bradshaw broke a couple of runs, and that proved that he is capable of carrying the load if Jacobs gets hurts. Are you sure about that? At what point did he carry the load today? I think he proved that he can be a very effective change of pace back to Brandon Jacobs. I didn't see him carrying any loads out there today.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I remember watching the Dolphins-Chiefs preseason game, and Jaws was shocked at how badly the Chiefs were trying to rig the QB competition so Croyle could win it...something to the effect of "you're not really having a QB competition if you're only allowing one of the QBs to compete."

Remember this as well. Simply embarrassing. All that said, I don't really know if we know any more about Croyle than we knew before the year.

How well Tony Gonzalez's already stellar career ends (and how long it lasts) depends on the Croyle decision. He took off today once Croyle got hurt. Croyle is awful. If he's the starter next year, I'm moving Bowe and Gonzo down.

I agree completely. Croyle is appallingly bad, and he's murder on Gonzo's production. Every time Huard plays, Gonzo blows up.The Chiefs are in kind of the same situation as the Redskins, expect they're much worse off than the 'Skins. The Chiefs offense works so much better with Huard under center simply because Croyle sucks so bad. The Redskins offense works better with Collins under center simply because he runs the offense better than Campbell. The Chiefs have to decide what direction they're going to take their franchise. The Redskins just have to decide who is going to start in this year's playoffs if they get in.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

My rule of thumb for QBs is 25-30 games. If, after 25-30 games, a qb isn't a top-10 QB, it's time to sell and sell FAST before the bottom drops out. Looking at the historical life of stud QBs, almost all top-10 fantasy QBs (something like 80+%) make it into the top 10 within their first two seasons (or 32 games) as a starter. It might be a little bit aggressive, and obviously it would need to be done on a case-by-case basis; for instance, I definitely wouldn't be ready to firesale Cutler despite the fact that he was outside of the top 10 entering this week, partly because Cutler has shown so much on the field, partly because Cutler's 11th and might as well be top-10, and partly because it's been a strong year for QBs (Cutler's on pace for 271 points this year, which would rank him 11th in 2007, but would have been good for 7th place in either 2006 or 2005). Still, someone like Alex Smith or J.P. Losman would have been on my "must sell" list entering this year, someone like Jason Campbell would have just made it onto my "must sell" list, and someone like Matt Leinart will soon find himself on that list if he doesn't shape up bigtime when he makes it back onto the field. And the beauty is that it's early enough that there's always some sucker willing to give these guys just one more year to turn it around. Just look back at the beginning of the year to all the threads about how J.P. Losman and Alex Smith were great buy-low targets because they were super-talented and the light still might come on.

Well said. I think it's important that you added "obviously it would need to be done on a case-by-case basis," but it sounds like a very good rule of thumb. I hadn't delved as deeply into it as you have, but that's been my general philosophy for years. Let somebody else clog their roster hoping for young QBs to develop. Once I see which ones I like after a year or two, I'll make a judgment call and target them while their value is just about ripe for the pickin'. Roethlisberger is a great example of a guy who was obviously a Top 10 NFL QB but hadn't yet made it to Top 10 fantasy production yet. In dynasty leagues, that's a recipe for success down the road.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Any softening of the valuation of Duckett based on this week? Granted, it was one game, but he has fairly consistently looked better thna Jones in games where they have both appeared this season.

Going into the last game, he has a 5.9 YPC compared to Jones' career typical 3.8. He breaks long ones occasionally (Jones doesn't). He basically just gave Detroit it's first win in 7 games. He's just a half year older than Jones.

You SURE you wouldn't rather take a shot on him at 26 than any of Tatum Bell (inactive again), Dom Rhodes (looked good last night, but 28 and will have to seriously compete for a job), JJ Arrington, Lamont Jordan (3rd string on his team right now, if that), Kenton Keith (good stats last night I admit), Jesse Chatman (28, maybe just passed by Booker for 2nd string), Tony Hunt (inactive again), or Reuben Droughns (3 carries, -5 yards, easily 3rd string in NY, 29 yeas old)?

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Croyle is appallingly bad

I really don't get what the Chiefs see in Croyle.