Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Rhythmdoctor]

Luck's current ANY/A would rank as the worst of Ryan's career. If you want to rank Luck over Ryan, efficiency metrics are not the drum you should be banging here.

You can pretty much throw out a rookie QB's stats unless he really dominates. A lot of great passers came out of the gate slowly. Eli, Brees, and Brady being three big ones. Luck's current stats probably don't tell us much about the player he will be in 2-3 years.The reason for taking Luck over Ryan is because he's a far better player. It's the reason why he graded off the charts, was touted as the best QB prospect of the last decade, and was picked first in a stacked draft. The stats will come as he gains experience. People need to realize that he is playing on a terrible team and carrying the whole offense on his back because the team has NO running game whatsoever. In 2 or 3 years he will be miles ahead of guys like Ryan. If you can get that deal, jump on it.As for YPA, it's not perfect, but it's clearly the best single stat for assessing real life QB quality. And I tend to believe that good NFL QBs become good FF QBs. That's why I bought Ben in all my leagues when he was ranked as QB18 despite having an awesome rookie year. People look at the wrong stats.Regarding Peyton and Brady, bear in mind that the league has become more QB-friendly in the years since they came on the scene. Wouldn't be surprised if YPA numbers are up across the board, making it difficult to compare current stats to stats from 10 years ago.

6.8, 7.1, 6.8, 6.9, 6.9, 6.9, 7.0, 7.0, 7.2. That's the league-wide YPA from 2003 to 2011. Creeping up? Yes. Difficult to compare? No.YPA is a good stat, but if I can only have one stat, ANY/A is strictly better because it takes Y/A and adds more quality information. DVOA is better still because it's defense-adjusted. We're no longer in the dark age of football statistics where YPA is the best we have available to us.

Can you please save me some time from having to sift through this thread and explain to me what ANY/A and DVOA measure?Thanks

 

[jeter23]

I know there are Cobb threads, but most of the talk in there is redrafty. How high are we ranking Cobb going forward? Top-12 with Jennings likely leaving in FA? He's Harvin lite with a MUCH better QB. Hasnt reached his potential yet and he's top-5 over the last few weeks.Is he a WR1 every week, or just until Jenings comes back? Do we worry about the Packers ever finding a run game, as it seems they wanted to with Benson, and even if they did draft a RB in the first two rounds, would it effect Cobb's targets?This guy just oozes talent. Always did. He's a true player, just exceptional all over the field, and so young. I'm thinking you can STILL buy low on him, even after his big games recently. He's not being valued like he should, just like Harvin wasn't for the longest time (Although he has the migraines as well). He's a guy whose talent is so apparent, I'm jumping to "overpay" for him right now, because I think it will be viewed as stealing him by next year. I remember shaking my head on draft weekend when he fell to the Packers, it was such a great fit, and such a case of the rich getting richer due to stupid positional values in the first round. Just like DeCastro falling to the Steelers this past draft, and another one I can remember thinking this about was Jimmy Smith falling to the Ravens. These great drafting teams take the value where it falls, and Cobb certainly qualified.

What are you offering? What do you consider overpaying?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I know there are Cobb threads, but most of the talk in there is redrafty. How high are we ranking Cobb going forward? Top-12 with Jennings likely leaving in FA? He's Harvin lite with a MUCH better QB. Hasnt reached his potential yet and he's top-5 over the last few weeks.Is he a WR1 every week, or just until Jenings comes back? Do we worry about the Packers ever finding a run game, as it seems they wanted to with Benson, and even if they did draft a RB in the first two rounds, would it effect Cobb's targets?This guy just oozes talent. Always did. He's a true player, just exceptional all over the field, and so young. I'm thinking you can STILL buy low on him, even after his big games recently. He's not being valued like he should, just like Harvin wasn't for the longest time (Although he has the migraines as well). He's a guy whose talent is so apparent, I'm jumping to "overpay" for him right now, because I think it will be viewed as stealing him by next year. I remember shaking my head on draft weekend when he fell to the Packers, it was such a great fit, and such a case of the rich getting richer due to stupid positional values in the first round. Just like DeCastro falling to the Steelers this past draft, and another one I can remember thinking this about was Jimmy Smith falling to the Ravens. These great drafting teams take the value where it falls, and Cobb certainly qualified.

What are you offering? What do you consider overpaying?

Not entirely sure yet, I'm looking over an offer now. I know one thing--it's going to be a deal involving Calvin. not close to straight up, obviously. I'm also targeting McCoy, so it's a bigger deal. Trying to deal with a team that's 0-7 whose looking towards next year already. Probably will be an offer like Calvin, Jon Stewart, two 2nds and a 3rd for McCoy, Cobb, something.

 

[SSOG]

Luck's current ANY/A would rank as the worst of Ryan's career. If you want to rank Luck over Ryan, efficiency metrics are not the drum you should be banging here.

You can pretty much throw out a rookie QB's stats unless he really dominates. A lot of great passers came out of the gate slowly. Eli, Brees, and Brady being three big ones. Luck's current stats probably don't tell us much about the player he will be in 2-3 years.The reason for taking Luck over Ryan is because he's a far better player. It's the reason why he graded off the charts, was touted as the best QB prospect of the last decade, and was picked first in a stacked draft. The stats will come as he gains experience. People need to realize that he is playing on a terrible team and carrying the whole offense on his back because the team has NO running game whatsoever. In 2 or 3 years he will be miles ahead of guys like Ryan. If you can get that deal, jump on it.As for YPA, it's not perfect, but it's clearly the best single stat for assessing real life QB quality. And I tend to believe that good NFL QBs become good FF QBs. That's why I bought Ben in all my leagues when he was ranked as QB18 despite having an awesome rookie year. People look at the wrong stats.Regarding Peyton and Brady, bear in mind that the league has become more QB-friendly in the years since they came on the scene. Wouldn't be surprised if YPA numbers are up across the board, making it difficult to compare current stats to stats from 10 years ago.

6.8, 7.1, 6.8, 6.9, 6.9, 6.9, 7.0, 7.0, 7.2. That's the league-wide YPA from 2003 to 2011. Creeping up? Yes. Difficult to compare? No.YPA is a good stat, but if I can only have one stat, ANY/A is strictly better because it takes Y/A and adds more quality information. DVOA is better still because it's defense-adjusted. We're no longer in the dark age of football statistics where YPA is the best we have available to us.

Can you please save me some time from having to sift through this thread and explain to me what ANY/A and DVOA measure?Thanks

Y/A (YPA) is an obvious one- yards per attempt. Passing yards / passing attempts = Y/ANY/A is Net Yards per Attempt. It's Y/A adjusted for sacks. (Passing yards - yards lost to sacks) / (passing attempts + sacks) = NY/AANY/A is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. It's NY/A with bonuses for TDs and penalties for INTs. I forget the exact multipliers, but it's something like (passing yards - sack yards + 15*TDs - 60*INTs) / (attempts + sacks) = ANY/A. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It's a proprietary stat from www.footballoutsiders.com. Basically, they take every single play and compare it to every other play in that situation. If you throw for 12 yards on 3rd and 10 from your own 32 yard line with 4 minutes left in the game trailing by 13, it'll check it's database to see what the average result in that situation would be, and it rewards you or penalizes you based on how much better or worse you were than that average. It then adjusts those values to account for the quality of defense you were facing. Obviously it's the least simple of the stats, but it's the only one that takes into account situation and opposition. A guy averaging 7 YPA playing in the NFC West with a terrible running game constantly stranding him in long yardage situations is a lot better than a guy averaging 7 YPA in the AFC South with one of the best rushing attacks in the league always leaving him with 3rd and shorts.

 

[SSOG]

I know there are Cobb threads, but most of the talk in there is redrafty. How high are we ranking Cobb going forward? Top-12 with Jennings likely leaving in FA? He's Harvin lite with a MUCH better QB. Hasnt reached his potential yet and he's top-5 over the last few weeks.Is he a WR1 every week, or just until Jenings comes back? Do we worry about the Packers ever finding a run game, as it seems they wanted to with Benson, and even if they did draft a RB in the first two rounds, would it effect Cobb's targets?This guy just oozes talent. Always did. He's a true player, just exceptional all over the field, and so young. I'm thinking you can STILL buy low on him, even after his big games recently. He's not being valued like he should, just like Harvin wasn't for the longest time (Although he has the migraines as well). He's a guy whose talent is so apparent, I'm jumping to "overpay" for him right now, because I think it will be viewed as stealing him by next year. I remember shaking my head on draft weekend when he fell to the Packers, it was such a great fit, and such a case of the rich getting richer due to stupid positional values in the first round. Just like DeCastro falling to the Steelers this past draft, and another one I can remember thinking this about was Jimmy Smith falling to the Ravens. These great drafting teams take the value where it falls, and Cobb certainly qualified.

I mentioned in one of the Cobb threads that I have him as a high-end dynasty wr2 right now in standard leagues. In leagues with mild rewards for return yardage (such as my own), there are maybe 8 WRs I would take over him. In leagues with strong return bonuses, he's a top-4 WR with Harvin, Green, and Calvin.My league's scoring system is extremely Cobb-friendly (yardage heavy, punt returns count the same as receiving yards, kickoff returns give small bonuses), but he's wr5 in ppg in the format, and he's only been trending upward. Cobb has already made my "untouchable" list.

 

[bengalbuck]

I love your posts and find myself agreeing with most of them, but I think you miss the boat on your Carson analysis. Carson had arguably his best season ever the year after his knee injury as he threw for over 4000 yards for the only time in his career and made the Pro Bowl. I really think Carson's demise was based on a lot of factors, some within his control and some not. But the knee injury is a red herring in my opinion.

Timelines get fuzzy as they fade into the past, so I'll defer to your greater knowledge on the subject. In your opinion, what were the factors behind Palmer's (relatively precipitous) fall?

As someone else mentioned, his elbow injury sapped a little arm strength. It was a more significant injury in my opinion, but even that doesn't fully explain his decline. I think the biggest issue was that he went from having one of the best OLs in the league to one of the worst. Tons of injuries and guys getting old led to his sack rate doubling and it really impacted his psyche. He started feeling pressure when it wasn't there. He also went from having a very talented group of weapons in the passing game to a washed up Ocho and not much else. The play calling of his OC became stale. He seemed to lose hope of winning in Cincy and generally lost confidence.Overall, I think it's really hard to point to one specific thing, but he went from being one of the better QBs in the league to below average gradually and, in my opinion, without one specific moment or injury that I can point to as the tipping point. The decline was more of a slow and steady thing. He led the Bengals to an AFC North crown and division sweep as late as 2009. And less than a year ago garnered a first and second round pick in trade.

 

[EBF]

IMO Stafford, Palmer, and Cutler are guys who have always had top shelf physical talent, but merely average mental talent by NFL QB standards. They are decent starters who can get you to the playoffs, but they aren't really guys you want to hand the ball to down by 5 points with 1:37 left on the clock. There is an "it" factor missing there. Deficiencies in vision/instincts/poise/character. Lacking some sort of killer instinct. Hard to put into words, but you know it when you see it. It's what separates the merely "good" QBs from the guys who can win a Super Bowl (no Trent Dilfer jokes please). Flacco is the same type of guy. Talented, but doesn't have that extra something of a Rodgers/Brees/Warner.

I remember Palmer from his USC days. He was supposed to be the next great thing, but it didn't really play out that way until his final season. He actually threw more INTs than TDs in his sophomore and junior seasons combined (16/18 as a sophomore, 13/12 as a junior). He was a flat out average player. It wasn't until his senior year (which was actually his 5th year at USC) that he really produced on par with his hype. And a lot of that was just Mike Williams and Keary Colbert. I don't think Palmer is a natural or an instinctive QB. He is a physical specimen with just okay instincts. He doesn't play with confidence and fearlessness. You can see it in his demeanor. Very different from Luck and Rodgers, who basically dominated from the moment they stepped on the field in college. He definitely regressed in Cincy, but even at the peak of his hype he probably wasn't the guy people thought he was. I suspect that his apparent decline has as much to do with his mental shortcomings as it does with injuries. All of this is totally unscientific and I don't expect people to agree with that assessment, but that's how I feel.

I don't really want to go back on the Matt Ryan topic too much, but I think he's a different type of player. More cerebral. Less physically gifted. I would say he's more like a really good Chad Pennington. I could actually see him winning a Super Bowl at some point in his career (unlike Cutler/Stafford/Flacco/Palmer), but I don't think he's quite as dynamic passing the ball as the truly great ones.

 

[FF Newbie]

How do CJ Spiller and Demarco Murray stack up in people's minds right now? These are two guys I have a chance to get in one of my leagues and I am torn on both of them for different reasons.

 

[3optic]

How do CJ Spiller and Demarco Murray stack up in people's minds right now? These are two guys I have a chance to get in one of my leagues and I am torn on both of them for different reasons.

I have both in my standard scoring dynasty right now and may look to move Murray after he has a good game (stacked at the position with Mathews, Morris, and Lynch. Can only hold 3). Like him but the health issue and the Boy's inconsistent use of him makes me nervous. Spiller on the other hand has that big play potential that can really blow games wide open.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Luck's current ANY/A would rank as the worst of Ryan's career. If you want to rank Luck over Ryan, efficiency metrics are not the drum you should be banging here.

You can pretty much throw out a rookie QB's stats unless he really dominates. A lot of great passers came out of the gate slowly. Eli, Brees, and Brady being three big ones. Luck's current stats probably don't tell us much about the player he will be in 2-3 years.The reason for taking Luck over Ryan is because he's a far better player. It's the reason why he graded off the charts, was touted as the best QB prospect of the last decade, and was picked first in a stacked draft. The stats will come as he gains experience. People need to realize that he is playing on a terrible team and carrying the whole offense on his back because the team has NO running game whatsoever. In 2 or 3 years he will be miles ahead of guys like Ryan. If you can get that deal, jump on it.

As for YPA, it's not perfect, but it's clearly the best single stat for assessing real life QB quality. And I tend to believe that good NFL QBs become good FF QBs. That's why I bought Ben in all my leagues when he was ranked as QB18 despite having an awesome rookie year. People look at the wrong stats.

Regarding Peyton and Brady, bear in mind that the league has become more QB-friendly in the years since they came on the scene. Wouldn't be surprised if YPA numbers are up across the board, making it difficult to compare current stats to stats from 10 years ago.

6.8, 7.1, 6.8, 6.9, 6.9, 6.9, 7.0, 7.0, 7.2. That's the league-wide YPA from 2003 to 2011. Creeping up? Yes. Difficult to compare? No.YPA is a good stat, but if I can only have one stat, ANY/A is strictly better because it takes Y/A and adds more quality information. DVOA is better still because it's defense-adjusted. We're no longer in the dark age of football statistics where YPA is the best we have available to us.

Can you please save me some time from having to sift through this thread and explain to me what ANY/A and DVOA measure?Thanks

Y/A (YPA) is an obvious one- yards per attempt. Passing yards / passing attempts = Y/ANY/A is Net Yards per Attempt. It's Y/A adjusted for sacks. (Passing yards - yards lost to sacks) / (passing attempts + sacks) = NY/A

ANY/A is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. It's NY/A with bonuses for TDs and penalties for INTs. I forget the exact multipliers, but it's something like (passing yards - sack yards + 15*TDs - 60*INTs) / (attempts + sacks) = ANY/A.

DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It's a proprietary stat from www.footballoutsiders.com. Basically, they take every single play and compare it to every other play in that situation. If you throw for 12 yards on 3rd and 10 from your own 32 yard line with 4 minutes left in the game trailing by 13, it'll check it's database to see what the average result in that situation would be, and it rewards you or penalizes you based on how much better or worse you were than that average. It then adjusts those values to account for the quality of defense you were facing. Obviously it's the least simple of the stats, but it's the only one that takes into account situation and opposition. A guy averaging 7 YPA playing in the NFC West with a terrible running game constantly stranding him in long yardage situations is a lot better than a guy averaging 7 YPA in the AFC South with one of the best rushing attacks in the league always leaving him with 3rd and shorts.

How does DVOA determine quality of a QB's teammates independent of the QB or team offense? The QB:RB/WR/OL correlation goes both ways, not just RB/WR/OL affect on QB. I'm not all that familiar with the statistic, but it appears to me to be trying to do too much. As for ANY/A, how do they go about coming up with the values to use for the multipliers?

 

[SSOG]

IMO Stafford, Palmer, and Cutler are guys who have always had top shelf physical talent, but merely average mental talent by NFL QB standards. They are decent starters who can get you to the playoffs, but they aren't really guys you want to hand the ball to down by 5 points with 1:37 left on the clock. There is an "it" factor missing there. Deficiencies in vision/instincts/poise/character. Lacking some sort of killer instinct. Hard to put into words, but you know it when you see it. It's what separates the merely "good" QBs from the guys who can win a Super Bowl (no Trent Dilfer jokes please). Flacco is the same type of guy. Talented, but doesn't have that extra something of a Rodgers/Brees/Warner. I remember Palmer from his USC days. He was supposed to be the next great thing, but it didn't really play out that way until his final season. He actually threw more INTs than TDs in his sophomore and junior seasons combined (16/18 as a sophomore, 13/12 as a junior). He was a flat out average player. It wasn't until his senior year (which was actually his 5th year at USC) that he really produced on par with his hype. And a lot of that was just Mike Williams and Keary Colbert. I don't think Palmer is a natural or an instinctive QB. He is a physical specimen with just okay instincts. He doesn't play with confidence and fearlessness. You can see it in his demeanor. Very different from Luck and Rodgers, who basically dominated from the moment they stepped on the field in college. He definitely regressed in Cincy, but even at the peak of his hype he probably wasn't the guy people thought he was. I suspect that his apparent decline has as much to do with his mental shortcomings as it does with injuries. All of this is totally unscientific and I don't expect people to agree with that assessment, but that's how I feel. I don't really want to go back on the Matt Ryan topic too much, but I think he's a different type of player. More cerebral. Less physically gifted. I would say he's more like a really good Chad Pennington. I could actually see him winning a Super Bowl at some point in his career (unlike Cutler/Stafford/Flacco/Palmer), but I don't think he's quite as dynamic passing the ball as the truly great ones.

I do not disagree with this analysis, actually. I think it's spot-on, and it's why I've always been lower than consensus on Stafford. Still, entrenched starter age 24 with history of success in pass-heavy offense with phenomenal arm talent and Calvin Johnson still equals a top 8 dynasty QB. And nothing says Stafford is a finished product, either- up until a year and a half ago, I could (and did) say similar things about Eli. QBs can continue making gains well into their late 20s. As for Ryan- yeah, again, not as dynamic as the great ones, which is why he ranks behind them despite being younger. He's a top-10 real QB, though, and he plays in a very friendly system with some very friendly weapons and a quality coaching staff (which is important- witness Brees/Payton and Griffin/Shanahan). And, as I said, he's producing huge, huge value right now, which is hard to be beat by potential value at some nebulous future date. The fact that Luck has battled him to a virtual tie speaks volumes about Luck.

 

[SSOG]

How does DVOA determine quality of a QB's teammates independent of the QB or team offense? The QB:RB/WR/OL correlation goes both ways, not just RB/WR/OL affect on QB. I'm not all that familiar with the statistic, but it appears to me to be trying to do too much. As for ANY/A, how do they go about coming up with the values to use for the multipliers?

DVOA doesn't determine quality of teammates independently of each other, and offers huge warnings that it shouldn't be assumed to. It's creators frequently caution that "we aren't saying that this QB is this, we are saying that this QB behind this line throwing to these receivers while defenses watch this RB is this". All they're doing is seeing how teams perform in certain situations, normalizing it against how the average team performs there, and adjusting for the quality of defense faced. What I'm saying, though, is that it's more impressive if Roeth converts 50% of third downs than it is if Schaub does, because Roeth gets stranded in a lot more third and longs, which are historically much more difficult to convert.

 

[ctt8410]

Haven't watched much of Gordon, but if he is only running a couple routes, with teams selling out to stop the run, I just think we should slow down a little bit. I do need to make it a point to watch him play more, however.

I don't disagree, but I think we're reaching the point where you either have to buy in or sit out. Anyone who wanted to wait and see on Randall Cobb, for example, has probably missed out. I may be wrong, but I turned down Blackmon for him today so I'm buying.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Flacco is the same type of guy. Talented, but doesn't have that extra something of a Rodgers/Brees/Warner.

We can't fault him for TJ Houshmandzadeh and Lee Evans. He has put his team into position to win.

 

[SSOG]

Haven't watched much of Gordon, but if he is only running a couple routes, with teams selling out to stop the run, I just think we should slow down a little bit.

I do need to make it a point to watch him play more, however.

I don't disagree, but I think we're reaching the point where you either have to buy in or sit out. Anyone who wanted to wait and see on Randall Cobb, for example, has probably missed out. I may be wrong, but I turned down Blackmon for him today so I'm buying.

They've missed out by now, but they had plenty of opportunities to buy. Randall showed plenty last season, and a lot of people (Wesseling, Waldman, etc) were banging the "buy before he explodes" drum for those who hadn't been paying attention. There's a difference between "showing something" and "producing big fantasy numbers". Hell, there's still probably time to buy in standard leagues. His production hasn't been massive. He still has plenty of room to improve.

 

[EBF]

Flacco is the same type of guy. Talented, but doesn't have that extra something of a Rodgers/Brees/Warner.

We can't fault him for TJ Houshmandzadeh and Lee Evans. He has put his team into position to win.

No, but we can fault him for being in the league five years and not improving at all during that time. He's basically the exact same guy he was as a rookie. He doesn't seem to have whatever it takes between the ears to be a legitimate Pro Bowl type of QB.

 

[EBF]

Sold Cobb pretty cheap in a couple leagues earlier this year for varying reasons. Not feeling too good about that now. Looked like he would be a bit player as long as Jennings was around, but then Jennings got hurt and his value ballooned. I flogged him around in one of those leagues for weeks and never got any good offers earlier this season, but I suspect his value has spiked hugely since then.

I would have to sit down and write out a list of receivers before I could tell you exactly where I'd rank him, but he'd probably come in somewhere in the 15-25 range for me. He doesn't have the measurables of a #1 WR, but he's a natural football player with explosive short area quickness. The best thing about him is the fact that he plays on a great offense. You put a good player in a great offense and you can get some pretty insane stats. He is a better player than guys like Finley and Jones, and with Jennings getting old and having injury issues, I think it's more likely than not that he'll walk in free agency. All of that is good news for Cobb.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I missed the boat on Cobb. I assumed that he would be buried on the depth chart, no better than the #4 target behind Jennings/Nelson/Finley for the foreseeable future, with non-ideal size. Now Finley is inconsistent, Jennings is hurt and maybe not coming back (that talk started before week one), and Cobb has shown too well to be able to buy on the cheap.

 

[lbouchard]

He doesn't have the measurables of a #1 WR, but he's a natural football player with explosive short area quickness.

How similar are Harvin's and Cobb's measurables?

 

[JFS171]

With the earlier question about Murray and Spiller, injuries this year to Murray and MJD, and recent news out if Carolina suggesting Stewart is becomming a bell cow, who's in your top 10-15 RBs for dynasty?

 

[EBF]

He doesn't have the measurables of a #1 WR, but he's a natural football player with explosive short area quickness.

How similar are Harvin's and Cobb's measurables?

Harvin is a better athlete from that standpoint. They have a similar height/weight. Cobb actually has the higher BMI, but Percy looks like the more solid of the two to my eyes. In terms of how they tested in the drills...Harvin

40 - 4.39

Vertical - 37.5"

Broad Jump - 10'1"

Cobb

40 - 4.46

Vertical - 33.5"

Broad Jump - 9'7"

The main difference is speed. Percy is faster over 40 yards and also a lot faster over the first 10 (1.47 seconds vs. 1.56 seconds).

Cobb is not really a "wow" guy on paper, but he plays more explosive than he times because he has good first step quickness and is a natural football player (two things that can't be quantified by combine drills). I've never really liked the Harvin comparison though, as I think they're just different players.

 

[EBF]

With the earlier question about Murray and Spiller, injuries this year to Murray and MJD, and recent news out if Carolina suggesting Stewart is becomming a bell cow, who's in your top 10-15 RBs for dynasty?

I'll take a stab at it. 1. Trent Richardson - Actually a pretty clear #1 for me, provided that he can stay healthy. Best overall back in the league now. 2. Ray Rice - Should be good for about 3 more peak seasons. Trade value won't really drop for at least another year. 3. LeSean Mccoy - Good, proven, and young. Some risk that his value drops if Reid is canned.4. Doug Martin - On raw talent alone he isn't the 4th best RB, but I think he represents a safe workhorse back with his entire career ahead of him. 5. Jamaal Charles - I feel a bit uneasy about this ranking given his inability to stay healthy and productive over a full season, but he is clearly a dynamic talent and he's still in his prime. 6. Ryan Mathews - Value is similar to Martin's, except he has a more checkered injury track record. 7. Arian Foster - I'm not really a fan of the NFL player, but if they keep feeding him the rock then he'll remain valuable. 8. Adrian Peterson - Still playing at a dynamite level, but getting old. You could take him higher if you were just thinking win now.9. Marshawn Lynch - He is what he is. I think he can play like this for a few more years. 10. CJ Spiller/Jonathan Stewart - Both guys have obvious talent, but obvious question marks. The main thing they lack is the opportunity to touch the ball 20+ times per game. If either guy had that chance, I would expect big things. The problem is that there's no way of knowing exactly if/when that will happen for either of them. Others:Rashard Mendenhall - A legitimate starting caliber RB still young enough to play for several more years. If he were healthy he would be right in the mix with someone like Lynch. Darren McFadden - Obviously I'm not a fan. He has some value, but I think there are a lot of better backs in the league. DeMarco Murray - Another guy I don't like. I don't rate him highly as a runner and he is a major durability risk. Chris Johnson - Very inconsistent and also getting old.Maurice Jones-Drew - Phenomenal player. Getting old and seems to be breaking down a little bit physically. I wouldn't bet against him playing at a high level for another 3 or 4 years, but he's not a guy I'd take as a top 10 RB at this point. Reggie Bush - Old, not quite elite, and brittle. Matt Forte - Regressing and getting old. In terms of value for cost, I'd be looking at guys like Kendall Hunter, Bernard Pierce, and David Wilson as buys. I think all of them could conceivably become productive starters in the NFL, and they shouldn't have the elite price tag just yet. I also think Ben Tate is pretty good and I'm intrigued by what Daryl Richardson might become. If Pead was the one putting up the numbers he's been posting, the price tag would be swelling. But Richardson still has a lot of doubters.

 

[SSOG]

With the earlier question about Murray and Spiller, injuries this year to Murray and MJD, and recent news out if Carolina suggesting Stewart is becomming a bell cow, who's in your top 10-15 RBs for dynasty?

If I'm just typing up a name in 5 minutes without putting any thought into it, it'd look something like this:Rice- young, proven, productive, stable situationMcCoy- same as Rice, except lacking in current production. It'll come. Richardson- great talent, but I'm not convinced that the Browns won't turn him into the next Stephen Jackson (phenomenal RB anchored by crap franchise)Charles- unlike most, I don't really worry about his ability to shoulder the loadFoster- Comes in 5th due to age and Ben Tate. Peterson- the fact that a 27 year old with a reconstructed knee ranks this high is a testament to the weakness of the RB pool right now, but Peterson is a beast. Mathews- he's had a checkered start to his career, but the talent is there. Spiller- huge talent. The touches will come. Doug Martin- less talented than any of the guys ahead of him, but still very good and in a good situation. McFadden- too talented to languish forever. Forte- consistently productive. Ridley- Belichick has repeatedly demonstrated his willingness to tailor his offense to suit his players. Ridley will maintain a large role going forward. Jonathan Stewart- has his time finally come?Morris- the lead back for the rest of the year. And next year. And the year after. Count on it. Jones-Drew- a difference maker with a short shelf life. Buy him now while he's injured. Marshawn Lynch- could be convinced to flip him and Jones-Drew. Probably should, I'm just trigger-shy on Lynch. Reggie Bush- never thought we'd see him put it all together Demarco Murray- I was never as sold on him as everyone else. Strikes me as a good head-of-committee back.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Luck's current ANY/A would rank as the worst of Ryan's career. If you want to rank Luck over Ryan, efficiency metrics are not the drum you should be banging here.

You can pretty much throw out a rookie QB's stats unless he really dominates. A lot of great passers came out of the gate slowly. Eli, Brees, and Brady being three big ones. Luck's current stats probably don't tell us much about the player he will be in 2-3 years.The reason for taking Luck over Ryan is because he's a far better player. It's the reason why he graded off the charts, was touted as the best QB prospect of the last decade, and was picked first in a stacked draft. The stats will come as he gains experience. People need to realize that he is playing on a terrible team and carrying the whole offense on his back because the team has NO running game whatsoever. In 2 or 3 years he will be miles ahead of guys like Ryan. If you can get that deal, jump on it.As for YPA, it's not perfect, but it's clearly the best single stat for assessing real life QB quality. And I tend to believe that good NFL QBs become good FF QBs. That's why I bought Ben in all my leagues when he was ranked as QB18 despite having an awesome rookie year. People look at the wrong stats.Regarding Peyton and Brady, bear in mind that the league has become more QB-friendly in the years since they came on the scene. Wouldn't be surprised if YPA numbers are up across the board, making it difficult to compare current stats to stats from 10 years ago.

6.8, 7.1, 6.8, 6.9, 6.9, 6.9, 7.0, 7.0, 7.2. That's the league-wide YPA from 2003 to 2011. Creeping up? Yes. Difficult to compare? No.YPA is a good stat, but if I can only have one stat, ANY/A is strictly better because it takes Y/A and adds more quality information. DVOA is better still because it's defense-adjusted. We're no longer in the dark age of football statistics where YPA is the best we have available to us.

Can you please save me some time from having to sift through this thread and explain to me what ANY/A and DVOA measure?Thanks

Y/A (YPA) is an obvious one- yards per attempt. Passing yards / passing attempts = Y/ANY/A is Net Yards per Attempt. It's Y/A adjusted for sacks. (Passing yards - yards lost to sacks) / (passing attempts + sacks) = NY/AANY/A is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. It's NY/A with bonuses for TDs and penalties for INTs. I forget the exact multipliers, but it's something like (passing yards - sack yards + 15*TDs - 60*INTs) / (attempts + sacks) = ANY/A. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It's a proprietary stat from www.footballoutsiders.com. Basically, they take every single play and compare it to every other play in that situation. If you throw for 12 yards on 3rd and 10 from your own 32 yard line with 4 minutes left in the game trailing by 13, it'll check it's database to see what the average result in that situation would be, and it rewards you or penalizes you based on how much better or worse you were than that average. It then adjusts those values to account for the quality of defense you were facing. Obviously it's the least simple of the stats, but it's the only one that takes into account situation and opposition. A guy averaging 7 YPA playing in the NFC West with a terrible running game constantly stranding him in long yardage situations is a lot better than a guy averaging 7 YPA in the AFC South with one of the best rushing attacks in the league always leaving him with 3rd and shorts.

Awesome. Thanks for the detailed explanation!

 

[Kree]

I missed the boat on Cobb. I assumed that he would be buried on the depth chart, no better than the #4 target behind Jennings/Nelson/Finley for the foreseeable future, with non-ideal size. Now Finley is inconsistent, Jennings is hurt and maybe not coming back (that talk started before week one), and Cobb has shown too well to be able to buy on the cheap.

I found Cobb to be a tough buy as it was before Jennings got injured anyway... I think most of his owners were just so clueless on his general value because it was so dependent on the guys around him, despite his obvious talent, that they weren't too quick to sell, even if they thought they were getting overs.

 

[kingmalaki]

With the earlier question about Murray and Spiller, injuries this year to Murray and MJD, and recent news out if Carolina suggesting Stewart is becomming a bell cow, who's in your top 10-15 RBs for dynasty?

I'll take a stab at it. 1. Trent Richardson - Actually a pretty clear #1 for me, provided that he can stay healthy. Best overall back in the league now. 2. Ray Rice - Should be good for about 3 more peak seasons. Trade value won't really drop for at least another year. 3. LeSean Mccoy - Good, proven, and young. Some risk that his value drops if Reid is canned.4. Doug Martin - On raw talent alone he isn't the 4th best RB, but I think he represents a safe workhorse back with his entire career ahead of him. 5. Jamaal Charles - I feel a bit uneasy about this ranking given his inability to stay healthy and productive over a full season, but he is clearly a dynamic talent and he's still in his prime. 6. Ryan Mathews - Value is similar to Martin's, except he has a more checkered injury track record. 7. Arian Foster - I'm not really a fan of the NFL player, but if they keep feeding him the rock then he'll remain valuable. 8. Adrian Peterson - Still playing at a dynamite level, but getting old. You could take him higher if you were just thinking win now.9. Marshawn Lynch - He is what he is. I think he can play like this for a few more years. 10. CJ Spiller/Jonathan Stewart - Both guys have obvious talent, but obvious question marks. The main thing they lack is the opportunity to touch the ball 20+ times per game. If either guy had that chance, I would expect big things. The problem is that there's no way of knowing exactly if/when that will happen for either of them. Others:Rashard Mendenhall - A legitimate starting caliber RB still young enough to play for several more years. If he were healthy he would be right in the mix with someone like Lynch. Darren McFadden - Obviously I'm not a fan. He has some value, but I think there are a lot of better backs in the league. DeMarco Murray - Another guy I don't like. I don't rate him highly as a runner and he is a major durability risk. Chris Johnson - Very inconsistent and also getting old.Maurice Jones-Drew - Phenomenal player. Getting old and seems to be breaking down a little bit physically. I wouldn't bet against him playing at a high level for another 3 or 4 years, but he's not a guy I'd take as a top 10 RB at this point. Reggie Bush - Old, not quite elite, and brittle. Matt Forte - Regressing and getting old. In terms of value for cost, I'd be looking at guys like Kendall Hunter, Bernard Pierce, and David Wilson as buys. I think all of them could conceivably become productive starters in the NFL, and they shouldn't have the elite price tag just yet. I also think Ben Tate is pretty good and I'm intrigued by what Daryl Richardson might become. If Pead was the one putting up the numbers he's been posting, the price tag would be swelling. But Richardson still has a lot of doubters.

Didn't realize there were that many stud young backs. Which ones would you take over Luck?

 

[EBF]

With the earlier question about Murray and Spiller, injuries this year to Murray and MJD, and recent news out if Carolina suggesting Stewart is becomming a bell cow, who's in your top 10-15 RBs for dynasty?

I'll take a stab at it. 1. Trent Richardson - Actually a pretty clear #1 for me, provided that he can stay healthy. Best overall back in the league now. 2. Ray Rice - Should be good for about 3 more peak seasons. Trade value won't really drop for at least another year. 3. LeSean Mccoy - Good, proven, and young. Some risk that his value drops if Reid is canned.4. Doug Martin - On raw talent alone he isn't the 4th best RB, but I think he represents a safe workhorse back with his entire career ahead of him. 5. Jamaal Charles - I feel a bit uneasy about this ranking given his inability to stay healthy and productive over a full season, but he is clearly a dynamic talent and he's still in his prime. 6. Ryan Mathews - Value is similar to Martin's, except he has a more checkered injury track record. 7. Arian Foster - I'm not really a fan of the NFL player, but if they keep feeding him the rock then he'll remain valuable. 8. Adrian Peterson - Still playing at a dynamite level, but getting old. You could take him higher if you were just thinking win now.9. Marshawn Lynch - He is what he is. I think he can play like this for a few more years. 10. CJ Spiller/Jonathan Stewart - Both guys have obvious talent, but obvious question marks. The main thing they lack is the opportunity to touch the ball 20+ times per game. If either guy had that chance, I would expect big things. The problem is that there's no way of knowing exactly if/when that will happen for either of them. Others:Rashard Mendenhall - A legitimate starting caliber RB still young enough to play for several more years. If he were healthy he would be right in the mix with someone like Lynch. Darren McFadden - Obviously I'm not a fan. He has some value, but I think there are a lot of better backs in the league. DeMarco Murray - Another guy I don't like. I don't rate him highly as a runner and he is a major durability risk. Chris Johnson - Very inconsistent and also getting old.Maurice Jones-Drew - Phenomenal player. Getting old and seems to be breaking down a little bit physically. I wouldn't bet against him playing at a high level for another 3 or 4 years, but he's not a guy I'd take as a top 10 RB at this point. Reggie Bush - Old, not quite elite, and brittle. Matt Forte - Regressing and getting old. In terms of value for cost, I'd be looking at guys like Kendall Hunter, Bernard Pierce, and David Wilson as buys. I think all of them could conceivably become productive starters in the NFL, and they shouldn't have the elite price tag just yet. I also think Ben Tate is pretty good and I'm intrigued by what Daryl Richardson might become. If Pead was the one putting up the numbers he's been posting, the price tag would be swelling. But Richardson still has a lot of doubters.

Didn't realize there were that many stud young backs. Which ones would you take over Luck?

Totally depends on the league and roster. In QB-heavy leagues Luck is pretty much untouchable for me. I have him in a league that treats passing TDs/yards the same as rushing/receiving. I don't know if I'd trade him for any RB in a format like that. But in many leagues the QB position is devalued. I've been trying to trade Newton in a 14 team league and I've never gotten anything approaching a decent offer. With only 10-16 teams in most FF leagues, almost everybody at least has a Rivers/Roeth/Ryan type of QB to trot out there every week, meaning they aren't really looking to pay a premium for a moderate bump in production. Usually teams have much worse situations at RB/WR, and thus will pay more to get one of those guys. So I would probably take any of my top 6 RBs for Luck in most leagues. I would also think about a guy like Spiller, Stewart, or Lynch in some situations, although I like Luck more in terms of total career value. In a startup draft I take him over those guys. With a contender that needed a RB, I would think about making the deal, knowing that I'm sacrificing value for immediate wins.

 

[SSOG]

Didn't realize there were that many stud young backs. Which ones would you take over Luck?

There aren't. The current RB pool is much weaker than it has been in years past. For instance, here's a complete list of RBs who are under 25 and currently ranked in the top 30: Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Stephan Ridley, Trent Richardson, Lesean McCoy, Demarco Murray. 9 of the top 30 are middle aged (25-26 years old), while a whopping 15 of the top 30 RBs are 27 or older. To compare: in 2009 (the heyday of the young stud RB), 13 of the top 30 RBs were 24 or younger (including each of the top 4), 7 more were middle-aged, and just 10 were "old" (27+). 2009 feature four starter-caliber backs age 22 (Rice, Stewart, Mendenhall, Moreno). This year features one (Richardson). Like I said, this is a weak, old RB crop. And as weak as the 2013 draft class look, it looks like next year might be even worse, with elder statesmen such as Peterson and Jones-Drew maintaining lofty rankings just because there isn't enough young talent coming in to knock them off their perches.

 

[dmac37]

Reggie Bush has had a bad rap for years but has produced the last two years. In my PPR league he was the #9 RB last year and also #9 this year weeks 1-6 this year, week 7 was his bye.

I have him on a team that I'm stacked with RB's, what level of WR's do you think he is worth?

 

[az_prof]

Reggie Bush has had a bad rap for years but has produced the last two years. In my PPR league he was the #9 RB last year and also #9 this year weeks 1-6 this year, week 7 was his bye.I have him on a team that I'm stacked with RB's, what level of WR's do you think he is worth?

I would say Andre Roberts or Steve Johnson but it all depends on starting line up reqs too.

 

[dmac37]

That's a big gap IMO, going by FBG dynasty rankings Roberts is around WR #60 and S. Johnson around WR #20??

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Reggie Bush has had a bad rap for years but has produced the last two years. In my PPR league he was the #9 RB last year and also #9 this year weeks 1-6 this year, week 7 was his bye.I have him on a team that I'm stacked with RB's, what level of WR's do you think he is worth?

Might as well keep him. In terms of the VBD he's likely to produce over the next few years you'll never get it back.

 

[jeter23]

Reggie Bush has had a bad rap for years but has produced the last two years. In my PPR league he was the #9 RB last year and also #9 this year weeks 1-6 this year, week 7 was his bye.I have him on a team that I'm stacked with RB's, what level of WR's do you think he is worth?

I was offered Chris Givens for him

 

[EBF]

That's a big gap IMO, going by FBG dynasty rankings Roberts is around WR #60 and S. Johnson around WR #20??

Roberts is underrated then. He has become a really good player in real life. Basically impossible to cover 1-on-1 because of his quicks. If Arizona had a decent QB his numbers would be a lot more consistent. Kolb is not good and Skelton is even worse though.

 

[az_prof]

That's a big gap IMO, going by FBG dynasty rankings Roberts is around WR #60 and S. Johnson around WR #20??

Roberts is underrated then. He has become a really good player in real life. Basically impossible to cover 1-on-1 because of his quicks. If Arizona had a decent QB his numbers would be a lot more consistent. Kolb is not good and Skelton is even worse though.

Roberts is younger too than Johnson.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Roberts is a nice NFL WR2, but nothing special. He's basically Antonio Brown -- will do well as long as he's playing opposite a WR who forces the defense into doubleteams, but line him up as a #1 and he'll be exposed over time.

Where you rank a player like that depends on your philosophy and how strong your team is currently but giving up a solid starting RB to land players like him is a losing game IMO. I doubt he'd make my top 40.

 

[corpcow]

Btw, you're welcome to all the CJ?K owners. I traded him away after the MIN game. Now that I no longer own him, he's probably deserving of a dynasty bump.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Btw, you're welcome to all the CJ?K owners. I traded him away after the MIN game. Now that I no longer own him, he's probably deserving of a dynasty bump.

Can we stop with stuff like this? Probably the most-used phrase in the shark pool in one way or another.No offense cow, of course.

 

[Grand Master B]

Btw, you're welcome to all the CJ?K owners. I traded him away after the MIN game. Now that I no longer own him, he's probably deserving of a dynasty bump.

Can we stop with stuff like this? Probably the most-used phrase in the shark pool in one way or another.No offense cow, of course.

lol you're a #######. No offense of course.

 

[Grand Master B]

Reggie Bush has had a bad rap for years but has produced the last two years. In my PPR league he was the #9 RB last year and also #9 this year weeks 1-6 this year, week 7 was his bye.I have him on a team that I'm stacked with RB's, what level of WR's do you think he is worth?

Might as well keep him. In terms of the VBD he's likely to produce over the next few years you'll never get it back.

true, but if he's buried in rb depth, possible pair w a wr to upgrade. I wouldn't mind buying bush right now. Schedule is favorable coming up with Buff 2x

 

[EBF]

Roberts is a nice NFL WR2, but nothing special. He's basically Antonio Brown -- will do well as long as he's playing opposite a WR who forces the defense into doubleteams, but line him up as a #1 and he'll be exposed over time.

Not sure I'd agree with that. He'll never be a dominant WR1, but Derrick Mason was a similar player and he had an awesome career. You don't have to be the biggest guy in the world if you can consistently separate, and Roberts is very difficult to cover.

 

[EBF]

Rams rookie WR Chris Givens has catches of 50+ yards in three consecutive games. Wouldn't be surprised if that's some sort of record. Fluke? Or is it time to send some trade offers before the asking price becomes ridiculous?

Givens busted another big play this week, taking a short pass 56 yards. That's now four straight games with a 50+ yard catch. He's just 34 yards behind Kendall Wright for the lead among all rookies in receiving yards. None of this guarantees long term success, but he might be a guy to target if you're looking for an upside WR prospect at a reasonable price. He could end up just being a Johnny Knox or Donte Stallworth type of player, but his profile is also similar to Greg Jennings. A deep threat who could eventually develop into something more.

Givens update: Five straight weeks with a 50+ yard catch. Not bad.

 

[ctrlaltdefeat]

17 carries 42 yards stud!

 

[Kree]

12/56 (Long of 27)

11/24

11/29

MJD, Murray and SJax all duds as well?

It was Chiggy... Best performing run D in the league at the moment.

If you were expecting something you were always going to be disappointed

 

[finito]

Rams rookie WR Chris Givens has catches of 50+ yards in three consecutive games. Wouldn't be surprised if that's some sort of record. Fluke? Or is it time to send some trade offers before the asking price becomes ridiculous?

Givens busted another big play this week, taking a short pass 56 yards. That's now four straight games with a 50+ yard catch. He's just 34 yards behind Kendall Wright for the lead among all rookies in receiving yards. None of this guarantees long term success, but he might be a guy to target if you're looking for an upside WR prospect at a reasonable price. He could end up just being a Johnny Knox or Donte Stallworth type of player, but his profile is also similar to Greg Jennings. A deep threat who could eventually develop into something more.

Givens update: Five straight weeks with a 50+ yard catch. Not bad.

What's the record?

 

[jeter23]

Rams rookie WR Chris Givens has catches of 50+ yards in three consecutive games. Wouldn't be surprised if that's some sort of record. Fluke? Or is it time to send some trade offers before the asking price becomes ridiculous?

Givens busted another big play this week, taking a short pass 56 yards. That's now four straight games with a 50+ yard catch. He's just 34 yards behind Kendall Wright for the lead among all rookies in receiving yards. None of this guarantees long term success, but he might be a guy to target if you're looking for an upside WR prospect at a reasonable price. He could end up just being a Johnny Knox or Donte Stallworth type of player, but his profile is also similar to Greg Jennings. A deep threat who could eventually develop into something more.

Givens update: Five straight weeks with a 50+ yard catch. Not bad.

What's the record?

That is the record

 

[EBF]

Demaryius Thomas...as good as Green and Julio.

 

[SSOG]

Demaryius Thomas...as good as Green and Julio.

Julio, maybe. Green, no way.

 

[EBF]

Green - 90.9 yards per game

Thomas - 90.3 yards per game

Green has the edge in hands and leaping ability. Thomas in raw physical talent. Much bigger and stronger. Much scarier matchup for a CB.

Thomas is just an awesome talent. One of the best in the game already.

 

[SSOG]

Green - 90.9 yards per gameThomas - 90.3 yards per gameGreen has the edge in hands and leaping ability. Thomas in raw physical talent. Much bigger and stronger. Much scarier matchup for a CB. Thomas is just an awesome talent. One of the best in the game already.

Oh, well, that settles it- if they're averaging the same number of yards per game, clearly they must be equivalent talents. Just like how Malcolm Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are equivalent talents.