dickey moe
Fingerpicker
I'll take the Foster with the Cobb on the side here.
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Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
In my main two QB leagueBrady for Cobb and a 1st
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I'd imagine it'll cost whatever Harvin's price is.Any talent difference IMO is made up for by the QB difference.I saw Cobb go for Andre and a 1st a week ago. (12 team PPR)
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JFS171
Footballguy
Interesting note here on Alfred Morris. Morris replaced Royster as the third down back in the win over Philly, playing on 9 of 11 third downs.
Some quotes:
Some quotes:
It didn't show up in the box score as Morris only had 1 catch for 7 yards, but this may be a time to buy. He's had a "disappointing" stretch of games with the team either falling behind, or Morris not reaching the end zone, etc. Some owners may be panicking, especially with Shanahan's reputation on backs.I, for one, don't see Shanahan changing barring major injury or a serious fumbling problem popping up. Morris fits his offense perfectly, is humble, works hard, and has some legit talent. As we've previously pointed out in this thread, there are a very limited number of bell cow backs, and even fewer of those with 3 down roles. EVEN LESS of those with opportunity, skills, and age all on their side. May be worth floating an offer out there to the Morris owner in your league.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This is really big, in my opinion. In PPR leagues, it can take him from top 15, to top 7-8. Even 3-4 targets a game would be a big step up. It is also an indication that Shanny wants the guy on the field as much as he can be. Like you said, I don't see the Redskins looking for a replacement; there's no incentive to. Especially when they are short on picks as it is.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Great point. GB is averaging 55 more yards per game passing, and has 16 more TDs through the air as well. Obviously Cobb and Harvin both act as RBs occasionally, but their majority of their points come via the reception. Another factor would be availability. Harvin misses games. He's had the migraine issue and other injuries curtail his productivity. Cobb hasn't played as much, but hasn't missed time yet.
i can tell you i passed up Fitz straight up for Cobb...
i want to try and figure out Reggie Bush for a minute. i still like his talent, but it is obvious from his usage the past couple of weeks that MIA want to see what they have with Thomas/Miller. Tannehill had a rough couple of weeks, too, and I don't know if that was a factor or not.
i think Reggie has some gas left in the tank and is still healthy. obviously, where he ends up will be the biggest factor. i could see him as a 15 touch/game RB with a pass centric offense. Doubt he gets more than a 2 year contract. Teams where he might end up(without looking at cap room):
ATL would add a much needed playmaker at RB and i think he should stay on Turf, and dome is a bonus
SEA reunited with Pete and nice complement to Lynch/Turbin
CIN need help at RB, though i tend to think Reggie would prefer warm climate and not facing PIT and BALT 4 times
DAL Jerry is a fool for fool's gold, but could be what he thought Felix was going to be
DET with Leshoure
IND not sure Ballard/Brown/Carter is the answer.
There are other situations out there that will arise, but it is better to wait for GMs and Coaches to get fired first before speculating.
i want to try and figure out Reggie Bush for a minute. i still like his talent, but it is obvious from his usage the past couple of weeks that MIA want to see what they have with Thomas/Miller. Tannehill had a rough couple of weeks, too, and I don't know if that was a factor or not.
i think Reggie has some gas left in the tank and is still healthy. obviously, where he ends up will be the biggest factor. i could see him as a 15 touch/game RB with a pass centric offense. Doubt he gets more than a 2 year contract. Teams where he might end up(without looking at cap room):
ATL would add a much needed playmaker at RB and i think he should stay on Turf, and dome is a bonus
SEA reunited with Pete and nice complement to Lynch/Turbin
CIN need help at RB, though i tend to think Reggie would prefer warm climate and not facing PIT and BALT 4 times
DAL Jerry is a fool for fool's gold, but could be what he thought Felix was going to be
DET with Leshoure
IND not sure Ballard/Brown/Carter is the answer.
There are other situations out there that will arise, but it is better to wait for GMs and Coaches to get fired first before speculating.
SSOG
Moderator
I'm not doing the rankings for DR.net anymore. Personally, I'd probably put Bush in the 20-25 range right now. I've long been a hater, but he's looked like a completely different player the last year and a half. He's older, but I like him as a nice high-upside gamble in an exceptionally weak RB crop.
SSOG
Moderator
Just for funsies:
1. Rice
2. Richardson
3. Peterson
4. McCoy
5. Martin
6. Charles
7. Spiller
8. Foster
9. Forte
10. Mathews
11. Lynch
12. Morris
13. McFadden
14. Stewart
15. Ridley
16. Murray
17. Chris Johnson
18. Bradshaw
19. Wilson
20. Leshoure
21. Reginald Bush
22. Hunter
23. Ingram
24. Mendenhall
25. Hillman
26. Ben Tate
27. Gore
28. Sproles
29. Richardson
30. Lamar Miller
31. SJax
32. Law Firm
33. FJax
34. Ivory
35. Dwyer
36. Pierre Thomas
That's a rough first pass, and I'm not sure how I feel about it yet. Anything stand out as particularly glaring?
1. Rice
2. Richardson
3. Peterson
4. McCoy
5. Martin
6. Charles
7. Spiller
8. Foster
9. Forte
10. Mathews
11. Lynch
12. Morris
13. McFadden
14. Stewart
15. Ridley
16. Murray
17. Chris Johnson
18. Bradshaw
19. Wilson
20. Leshoure
21. Reginald Bush
22. Hunter
23. Ingram
24. Mendenhall
25. Hillman
26. Ben Tate
27. Gore
28. Sproles
29. Richardson
30. Lamar Miller
31. SJax
32. Law Firm
33. FJax
34. Ivory
35. Dwyer
36. Pierre Thomas
That's a rough first pass, and I'm not sure how I feel about it yet. Anything stand out as particularly glaring?
I was in the pool
Footballguy
You are going to catch hell for foster rank i think, but i agree.
Wilson, Miller most glaring for me.
Wilson, Miller most glaring for me.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I know Peterson's great and all but there's no way I can put a 28 1/2 yo rb next season that high in dynasty rankings.
No MJD?
SSOG
Moderator
A month ago, I would have had Foster much higher. His sudden decline in effectiveness is worrisome. Wilson and Miller are guys who are out of sight, out of mind. Guys like them make for good buy lows- think Rice, McCoy, and Charles. I don't think they're as good as any of those guys, but in a weak RB crop, I think they're smart gambles.
SSOG
Moderator
Not until they demonstrate some sort of desire to field an NFL-caliber offensive line. I'm also not yet convinced that anyone on that roster is more than a short-term stopgap. Edit: no Falcons, Packers, Colts, or Jets RBs, either. Although the Jets was an oversight- Bilal Powell probably belongs somewhere in there. Maybe put him around 30, right ahead of Miller.
It's not just any RB. It's one of the best RBs of all time having a career year. He's only going to get healthier. Some humans have better genes, age better, heal faster. I'm willing to gamble on Peterson being effective into his 30s, and even if not, I'll take the 400 VBD he's going to rack up over the next 2.5 years as a consolation prize. And, as I keep saying... This is a ludicrously weak RB crop.
Oversight. Pop him at 18, right behind Johnson.
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EBF
Footballguy
Find a Richardson or Martin owner who would move either of them for Rice today. I think they're an extinct species. I have Doug in a couple leagues and, while I know people always overrate flashy rookies, it's pretty tough for me to imagine moving him for any RB straight up besides Richardson. Even that would be tough given their current production. Martin is leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage and looks like an absolute demon out there. Some people will say he's not an elite talent. Bullocks. He is proving it on the field. And the irony of that criticism is that NONE of the guys widely regarded as top 5 dynasty RBs besides Peterson were ranked any higher coming out of college (Foster, McCoy, Rice). It's what you do on the field in the NFL that matters, and Martin is ripping it up. Complete three down back who can catch passes, hit big plays, and also run with power. In other words...$$$. Not really feeling the ranks for Forte, Foster, or McFadden (SHOCKER). Just feels like Forte is starting to lose something. YPC is still decent though. McFadden is just a name at this point. He couldn't produce in the same situation where Marcel Reece is starring. Nuff said. I have watched two Skins games in the last month and Morris is a lot better than I initially gave him credit for. That doesn't make him a great back though. The NFL is littered with guys who could produce if they were given 20+ touches every week. Morris just happens to be one of the guys getting the chance. He is a good fit for the one cut running scheme. Good power and runs well north-south. Lacks agility and isn't a threat in space though, so he'll never be a pass catcher. I would say he's a decent RB2 for now and the future, but not a guy I'd really be looking to build around or count on. I think Daniel Thomas is a better running back than Lamar Miller, who I've cooled on a bit. Evidently the Dolphins coaches agree, at least for now. Can't really argue with the Spiller or Charles rankings, though I'll always be inclined to let other owners monopolize the 195 scat backs. Dwyer could be a nice buy at that ranking. I've picked him up in two leagues for 2nd round rookie picks. Like that price given what he's shown this season and the fact that he's a FA. I would say Dwyer, Bryce Brown, Kendall Hunter, Daryl Richardson, David Wilson, and Bernard Pierce are great names to take a punt on. The problem with some of those guys like Hunter and Wilson is that the guy who owns them might already be a true believer, meaning you'll have to pay an exaggerated price tag. I know that Hunter is a guy who has already been traded for in most of my leagues by people who are assuming that he'll take the next step. You may get a better price for Dwyer, Pierce, or Richardson since they haven't had as many carries.
Max Power
Footballguy
I'm fine discounting Beanie and Williams for that reason, but to pass on them is just short sighted. They are both young talented backs with plenty of potential. And you're going to rank some low reward player like Law Firm over them? Just saying in a Dynasty startup draft, I'd draft a cards RB before anyone you have listed 30 and below.
SSOG
Moderator
I don't rank backs based on what most of their owners think. Find a Foster owner that would trade him straight up for Charles- they're every bit as extinct, but you don't seem to mind those rankings. I'm a Rice owner who has been offered both Richardson and Martin, and has declined both times. Because I rank Rice over Richardson and Martin. Morris isn't a guy I'd ordinarily want to build around, either, but the problem with top 12 rankings is that there are always 12 RBs in them. In most years, he'd be closer to 16. This year, as young as he is, as well as he is producing, and as secure as his job is... He makes it into the top 12. I could be swayed on Thomas over Miller. Haven't seen enough of either recently, so I'm still relying a lot on first impressions.
SSOG
Moderator
BJGE will give you a couple years of low-end rb2 production. That's more than I'd count on from Beanie or Williams. I'm not saying I want nothing to do with them, but you can only fit 36 RBs into the top 36. Give me someone like Miller or Dwyer over a mediocre back stuck on a franchise where even Larry Fitz can't produce.
EBF
Footballguy
I just don't see how Rice has more value. Martin is outscoring him. Richardson is close. Both guys have similar short term outlooks and superior long term potential. I own all three in various leagues and would give up Rice for either without much hesitation. He turns 26 early in the offseason and will have 1200+ career carries by then. He also carried the ball a ton in college. Lots of tread off the tires already. He is no longer a guy that I'd take in the top 10 of a PPR startup, as there are younger backs with the same skill set and too many good players at the other positions.
SSOG
Moderator
Over time, I've moved away from a "tread on the tires" mindset. Age is important. Career workload is not. In fact, backs with a high workload early are more likely to maintain that high workload late in their careers, too. What Rice has over Martin is a track record. What Rice has over Richardson is a legit NFL franchise. You might value a track record and a supporting cast less than I do. That's your prerogative. I don't. That's my prerogative. It's good to get sane and rational people with different opinions, because otherwise you wind up with an echo chamber effect. And it's not like my opinion is really all that out there- Couch Potato has Rice over Martin. Bloom has Rice over both. On a scale of one to insane, this isn't "Arian Foster outside the top 10".
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
His sudden decline. Can say the same about ray rice or Jonathan Stewart.
djmich
Footballguy
I'm a Pierre Thomas owner and I couldn't put him at #36. He is unstartable now and he is no spring chicken. Are you assuming he is playing somewhere else next year? Rather take a chance on guys like Turbin, Vereen, Pead
zamboni
Footballguy
Agree on the pedigree, but as we all know the shelf life of an RB isn't that long - we can argue all day whether it's age, workload or some combination of the two.For dynasty purposes, the challenge is not relying on Rice for that one year when he starts falling over the wrong side of the cliff. Whether that's next year or not remains to be seen, but I think he's close to - if not at - his peak.At this point in time, I'd take the young legs of Richardson or Martin over Rice in a heartbeat, but that's me. All are franchise backs whose offenses will go through them, and are on the field in all situations.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
One thing to be aware of regarding Doug Martin is that he is an old rookie. How much stock you put in that is up to you but hes roughly the same age as Lesean Mccoy who's been in the league 3 years already and 2 1/2 years older than fellow rookie Trent Richardson.
az_prof
Footballguy
I agree with the bolded statement by SSOG above. In fact, I think a guy who has played a lot and has a history of not getting hurt may have a better chance of continuing to produce for a long time. I think of guys like Emmet Smith or Curtis Martin. Rice is a similar kind of player whom I can easily imagine producing 1000+yard seasons into his early 30s. The younger guy hasn't yet proven that he can sustain 300 touch seasons, year in year out, without breaking down.
az_prof
Footballguy
SSOG, you have Stewart at 14 and Wilson at 18. So, if you were a Bradshaw and Stewart owner, would you trade Stewart for Wilson? And if so, would it be fair to expect a second round pick in addition to Wilson? How much does the presence of Brown downgrade Wilson's future value? I like Wilson but it seems like it takes a long time for a RB to earn a featured role in the NYG backfield--whether it is Tiki, Jacobs, Bradshaw, or now Wilson. I also am starting to wonder if the situation in NYG is as good as it once was for Rbs. On the other hand, we know that the current situation in CAR is horrible.
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Jonathan Stewart always seems to be ranked so high on lists I see here compared to what you can get for him or with him. I'm starting to regret trading him and Vincent Jackson for Julio Jones when I see him ranked at a dizzying 14. I just couldn't imagine anyone accepting a straight up deal if you shopped him to the Ridley, Chris Johnson or Murray owner. Even in response to the question above, I wonder if an owner would give up Wilson straight up for him, I'd be inclined to say they wouldn't.
The other ones that stand out or me from a selfish point of view as I ve just bought them cheap are Ingram and Ben Tate, both much higher than I've seen ranked elsewhere. Excellent work SSOG
The other ones that stand out or me from a selfish point of view as I ve just bought them cheap are Ingram and Ben Tate, both much higher than I've seen ranked elsewhere. Excellent work SSOG
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ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
I have no problems with the rankings as a draft point of view but these rankings have absolutely no correlation in terms of dynasty trading. I wouldn't trade for half of the guys in the top 25 at these spots. Value is way overrated. I'd rather own frank gore and have a chance at winning now than pay a premium for a player like Stewart or Wilson. Planning for the future is way overrated as well since a team can be turned on a year to year basis. I'll stick with my AP and try to win it all every year while owners trade for younger guys.
Otis
Footballguy
For how long will people be continuing to rank Mathews a top 10 back? He's got a whopping 5 games with 100 rushing yards in his career (and none this year). I just don't understand the love for him.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Matthews is garbage. I guess it's one of those "talent" things.
he had a bad game vs Jacksonville at 3.2 YPC but is a 3.5 YPC in the rain on a chewed up field at the Bears really a ineffective game? Kubiak called it the best game he'd ever seen Foster play. his other two games in the past month are 4.6 vs Buffalo and 5.1 vs Detroit. he might look a tad less explosive but I think it's a over reaction to drop him a lot for essentially a bad game
SSOG
Moderator
It's a high upside pick. Thomas is a very talented runner. If he ever gets a go-to job, he'll beast it. If not... eh, he's only 36th. Think of him as a destitute man's Jonathan Stewart.
I don't believe in handcuffing unless I'm desperately shallow at RB, and don't believe Wilson is a true handcuff for Bradshaw, anyway. There's no way I'd trade the higher-ranked player for the lower, and a 2nd is nowhere near enough to bridge that gap for me.
My rankings aren't meant to be a bellwether for the market. I suspect a lot of people wouldn't make a lot of trades that these rankings would suggest are fair. I would make those trades, though, and in an instance where I wouldn't make that trade, my rankings are off and I need to adjust them. I disagree that one should completely disregard the future. Value today is the same as value tomorrow. There are other factors that can cause one to prioritize the present or the future (league instability leads to prioritizing the present, injuries lead to prioritizing the future, etc), but points today are not inherently more valuable than points tomorrow, and acting otherwise is committing a logical fallacy called hyperbolic discounting. As an illustration, imagine if you had a policy of buying talented players every time they were lost to season-ending injury. In general, this would make it more difficult to win in any given year, since you're always sacrificing present value while getting no present return... But in the long run, imagine how many titles you'd win after buying guys like Brady, Manning, Brees, Peterson, Charles, Welker, and VJax for pennies on the dollar because your leaguemates were all guilty of hyperbolic discounting.
SSOG
Moderator
You may be a hawk, but I'm a rabid giraffe. Tall enough to see over the trees, rabid enough to go for the jugular. And us rabid giraffes love us whatever talented young #1 backs we can find in such a weak RB crop as this.
4.0 ypc behind a strong line on the season. Dramatic drop in number of receptions, and fewer than 5 yards per reception. This isn't a "just this last month" thing, this is a "all season long" thing. I've been waiting 11 weeks for him to show me a vintage Foster game. I grow tired of waiting.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
I'm not a Mathews fan, but I heard the same argument about Dez Bryant. How's that working out for the non-believers?
EBF
Footballguy
I'd be selling Rice if people value him as a top 5-6 overall dynasty player. The peace of mind you get from having the safe bet is offset by the fact that four years of his prime are dead and gone. In dynasty I generally subscribe to the philosophy that it's better to sell a player a year too early than a year too late. Martin and Richardson are just as good and have a lot more longevity potential. Easy call there for me, as someone who owns all three players in various leagues.
EBF
Footballguy
There's never been a better time to buy Stewart. A lot of the people who took him high as a rookie are finally getting fed up and bailing, right before he is poised to finally return some of their investment. Carolina will be getting a top 10 pick and a new coach in the offseason. DeAngelo Williams is about to turn 30. Nowhere to go but up for Stewart's production, provided that he stays healthy and plays at a similar level to what he's done so far in his career. The FF value of RBs is mainly about opportunity. Guys like Ridley, Morris, and Foster are not incredible talents. They're just good players in favorable situations that exploit their skills to the max. A guy like Stewart has just as much talent and will eventually have a good run of FF production to match it if he ever gets a real chance to be the man for a team.
Otis
Footballguy
Solid statistical foundation here.
EBF
Footballguy
Overrated maybe, but garbage is a stretch. He has been pretty solid when healthy throughout his career. He was great last year. 4.9 YPC and very dangerous in the passing game. I think he's still a good guy to have on your roster. I wouldn't trust him as a first or even second rounder at this point, but he still has plenty of value.
squistion
Footballguy
A statement that really doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Assuming a start up draft, future value (as far as trades are concerned) is part of the equation of dynasty rankings - if not then it would be no different than a redraft league. As one who had done rankings over the years for a couple of sites, I can tell you that striking a balance between present and future value is quite difficult because of differing dynasty draft strategies. But even if you look at a shorter timeline as I do (2-3 years) you must consider value beyond the current year - or otherwise you will end up giving away potential future studs for pennies on the dollar (as SSOG noted) and can suddenly find yourself with an over-the-hill non-competitive team of creaky veterans that don't even have much current trade value.
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I don't know what a vintage Arian Foster game is, but I do know he has 5 100 yard + games and a 150 yarder while Rice has 2 100+ yarders with a high of 102. having seen lots of Foster this year I can say his yard per catch mark is totally due to the offense he only catches dump offs with little room to run now basically and not any more wheels and way less screens. that's something that can change pretty quickly though. the line is also down a bit this season.
still when 2 guys are within 6 months in age and Foster has put up 20.6, 19.7, 18.3 the last 3 years in PPG while Rice has gone 13.4, 18.6, and 14.5 (I know situations change) I am going to need a bit more convincing to drop him 7 spots below Rice than you got tired of waiting on a vintage Foster game during a season he is the leading fantasy scorer among RBs
still when 2 guys are within 6 months in age and Foster has put up 20.6, 19.7, 18.3 the last 3 years in PPG while Rice has gone 13.4, 18.6, and 14.5 (I know situations change) I am going to need a bit more convincing to drop him 7 spots below Rice than you got tired of waiting on a vintage Foster game during a season he is the leading fantasy scorer among RBs
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
These guys would rather have Stewart than foster lol
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Actually they are. The only points that matter for your FF team are the points they will score in the next game. You can always trade for, draft pick up players to score you points next season or in future seasons.I do not mean to say that the value of a player being able to repeat their performance over a period of time is not also valuable, it certainly is very valuable, that is why you rank Rice over Doug Martin, a position that for the most part I agree with btw but points scored in 2015 are not equal to points in 2012 or 2013 which are currently at a premium.If your team is not contending for a title in 2012 then you should shift gears as points in 2012 have no real value to your ability to win a championship. But when you are trading for the future you should still be demanding premium on current performance.
Tau837
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
Agreed, depending on one's dynasty strategy. SSOG looks at a 10 year dynasty timeline and thinks points in 2013, 2014, or 2015+ are worth the same as points today. Not saying he is wrong, it is just that I am from a different school of thought. I generally look at a 2-3 years max future time line - however, I always keep in mind from my Dynasty 101 class: The only year you can win is the one you are currently competing in, so if I am in the playoff hunt and am one player short to remain competitive, then the current points are always worth more than future points - but as they say, different strokes...
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SSOG
Moderator
Foster's topped 150 yards once this season. He did it 10 times in 2011, and 6 times in 2010. He's averaging 10 receiving yards per game and hasn't topped 40 yards once despite putting up 15 such games in his career.
If I'd rather have Stewart than Foster, I would have ranked Stewart over Foster.
Strongly, strongly, strongly disagree. Again, hyperbolic discounting. If you could trade points today for points tomorrow at a 10% premium, and you simply did that over and over, you would eventually own every single point in the entire league. By sacrificing a few titles early on, you would build an unstoppable juggernaut that would win every single game in perpetuity for the duration of the league's existence. If you could trade a pick today for an equal pick next year and a lesser pick this year, and you did that with every pick you owned, eventually you would wind up owning every single draft pick your league awarded for the remainder of the league's existence. Look at New England trading current picks for future picks, and look at Washington trading future picks for current picks, and go look back over the last decade and tell me which strategy has paid greater dividends. Again, there are perfectly valid reasons why one would value the present over the future. If your league is unstable and likely to fold, then the future is uncertain and should be discounted. If your team is making a run right now, then you should place a slight (but not huge) premium on present production. Despite the existence of scenarios where one or the other should be discounted, though, neither present points nor future points are inherently more valuable than the other.
and despite Foster getting almost no receiving yards this year he remains the #1 overall RB. I'd wager the yards are more likely to rise back toward his career averages than fall to zero over the next few seasons so I don't quite see the problem there. why give the #1 spot to Rice at the same age and producing at a much lower level and the #8 spot to Foster who has now made it 3 straight years of producing like a guy worth the #1 overall pick (as opposed to 1 out of 3 for Rice) and whose team shows no signs of moving away from him and just signed a long-term deal?
On pace for 400 carries in the regular season alone. Also declining effectiveness. Being propped up by said carries.
SSOG
Moderator
The saying is that TDs follow yards, not that yards follow TDs. Foster has suffered a dramatic decline in effectiveness that has been hidden in his fantasy totals by his strong TD production.
