EBF
Footballguy
Asking too much. And you only need one RB in the Hyper leagues. I have one that I rate a lot higher already.Number 13 but not worth a bunch of future picks?
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Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
Both guys are in the prime of their careers, so "old" might not be an accurate descriptor in DMC's case. The difference is that I have some degree of faith in Stewart, but zero confidence in McFadden. I look at DMC in the same way that I look at a guy like MJD or Reggie Bush. You might get 1-2 useful seasons out of him. Anything beyond that is a big stretch. Hence why I lumped him in with the old guys.Let's see, McFadden who turns 26 in August is listed as one of the old guys, while Stewart (who is 5 months older than DMC) and Mendy (2 months older) are not on the geriatric list. How odd that age seems to be no issue with them.
FWIW, I struggled with where to put Stewart. He's too good to be ranked alongside untested prospects like Pierce and Brown. On the other hand, he can't be relied on to produce like a Ridley or Morris. I understand why some people look at him in the same way that I look at a guy like DMC. But these are my rankings, and I like him enough to put him where I have him. When I ask myself if I would trade him for anyone below him, the answer is no.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Well, then your "old guy" framework is bull####. Otherwise, you would have Stewart listed as an "old guy" too, just much higher on the "old guy" list than McFadden. Unless "old guy" has a different definition than anyone can determine from your earlier post.Both guys are in the prime of their careers, so "old" might not be an accurate descriptor in DMC's case. The difference is that I have some degree of faith in Stewart, but zero confidence in McFadden. I look at DMC in the same way that I look at a guy like MJD or Reggie Bush. You might get 1-2 useful seasons out of him. Anything beyond that is a big stretch. Hence why I lumped him in with the old guys.Let's see, McFadden who turns 26 in August is listed as one of the old guys, while Stewart (who is 5 months older than DMC) and Mendy (2 months older) are not on the geriatric list. How odd that age seems to be no issue with them.
FWIW, I struggled with where to put Stewart. He's too good to be ranked alongside untested prospects like Pierce and Brown. On the other hand, he can't be relied on to produce like a Ridley or Morris. I understand why some people look at him in the same way that I look at a guy like DMC. But these are my rankings, and I like him enough to put him where I have him. When I ask myself if I would trade him for anyone below him, the answer is no.
EBF
Footballguy
I think every other guy on that old guy list is at least 27, so it's pretty consistent. McFadden is the one exception, and I only put him there because I have a lower degree of confidence in his talent/durability than the backs that age who are ranked in the first few groups.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
EBF: I'm a huge fan of your work. Truly. But pick a framework and stick with it. Either re-bucket McFadden or Stewart, and you're good to go. No?
Overly nit-picky.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
At some point age is less important than window. For example, IMO, you could put Ballard and Dwyer on the old guy list too. You're paying for the chance they'll start a couple years, same as Steven Jackson.
gianmarco
Footballguy
How would one consider DMC only good for maybe 1 more year? 2 at most? What's the reasoning behind this?Look, I get how DMC has the "injury-prone" label. But the fact is, when the guy plays, he puts up points and in a big way (esp. in PPR). The other thing is, while he hasn't played all 16 games in his career, he's also played 12+ games in all but 1 year. I can find a replacement RB for 3-4 weeks of the year if my guy is playing the other 12 and scoring like a RB1.Going into 2009 (after 5 yrs in the league just like DMC and Stewart), Steven Jackson was also labeled as injury prone at the age of 25, averaging 13 games/year. What has he done in the last 4 yrs? He's missed a total of 2 games over the last 4 years, playing in 15 games twice and 16 games the other 2 yrs while logging 324, 330, 260, and 257 carries in those 4 yrs. So much for "injury-prone". When you look at Stewart and DMC, here is how the actual production stacks up. If you count games with 15+ carries (and this is a fair cutoff for both guys as neither did much when they got fewer carries), here are the results over the last 5 yrs:Stewart:19 games of 15+ carries359 carries1823 yards16 TDs5.1 ypc9 100 yd gamesDMC24 games of 15+ carries491 carries2398 yards14 TDs4.9 ypc12 100 yd gamesDMC also has 50% more receiving yards and receptions than Stewy because he's involved in the passing game more, which helps offset the TD marks. What does that mean? It means if you like what Stewart has done so far, then it's kind of difficult to hate someone else for putting up eerily similar numbers. And there is absolutely nothing to suggest that Stewart has a longer window of productivity than DMC at this point of their careers. At least one guy is still named the clear starter and has actually produced for his fantasy teams over the last 3 years. Yes, I know Stewart has been stuck behind DeAngelo and has produced well when given the chance. But similarly, DMC has produced as well when he's been the starter and there's nothing to indicate he has any lasting injuries that will hamper him in the future.
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EBF
Footballguy
The biggest problem for McFadden has been durability. I don't believe he's capable of staying healthy in the NFL. Even if I liked him as a running back, the fact that he literally can't survive a single season without getting hurt would drop him down a notch or two in my estimation. He's been the most talented player in Oakland's backfield throughout his entire career and has been handed the starting job on numerous occasions. Despite all of those opportunities, he has one 1000+ yard rushing season to show for his five years in the league. You mentioned Steven Jackson. Well, by this point in his career Jackson already had four 1000+ yard seasons. So I don't buy that comparison. Nevermind the fact that they're very different from a physique/playing style standpoint. Putting the durability aside, I don't think McFadden is a good running back. He doesn't run with power or elusiveness. He has no lower body strength or leg drive. He's just really fast in a straight line. When you tailor the scheme to perfectly suit his talents, he can bust off long runs. But he's not a very versatile talent, and his immense struggles this past year showed that. He was arguably the worst starting RB in the NFL. Of the 23 backs in the NFL who had 200+ carries last season, he had the lowest YPC average. He ranked 42nd in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. Below Michael Turner, Rashad Jennings, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Jonathan Dwyer, and Alex Green. He wasn't just disappointing. He was awful.I think you could've plugged any number of NFL backups into the same Raiders team last season and gotten better results. I'd guess that Toby Gerhart, Bernard Pierce, Robert Turbin, Brandon Bolden, and countless others would've given you better NFL production in the exact same role. And that's pretty damning for a guy who is supposed to be a supreme talent. That's one question that I would ask his supporters. If he is so good, how do you explain last year? Of course they will blame the scheme and point to his YPC from 2010-2011, but I'd at least consider the possibility that he's simply not as good as his reputation would indicate. And I think that's been the case for a long time. Stewart was also a disappointment last year. He had the worst NFL season of his career, setting a career low in YPC. I think it's also fair to say that his FF career has been a big disappointment relative to expectations. The key difference for me is that Stewart hasn't had the same level of opportunity as McFadden from year to year. I think if he had been drafted by the Raiders, he would have several 1000+ yard seasons to his credit by now. But instead he went to the Panthers and has been stuck splitting carries for basically his entire career. You could say that this is an indictment of his ability. Personally, I don't buy that. DeAngelo Williams is one of the best all-around backs of the past 5-6 years and he has also been wasted for the most part. In an age where serviceable RBs are cheap to acquire, Carolina's baffling decision to keep and extend both of these guys has killed their FF value. Put Williams on the Patriots instead of Maroney and Stewart on the Steelers instead of Mendenhall and you're probably talking about these guys in the same sentence as MJD and Chris Johnson. Just didn't work out that way. Moving forward, I have more faith in Stewart than McFadden. I think he's a better overall back. He has a higher career YPC by 0.4. Even though he has durability questions of his own, I think he's more likely to survive the grind of a full NFL season than DMC. He's played in 71 games so far in his career compared to 57 for McFadden. With Williams due to hit 30 in a couple months, I think Stewart will soon have a 2-4 year window to have a late career renaissance like McGahee, Benson, or Thomas Jones. That's what's driving my optimism at this point. I think he blew a big opportunity last year and I've dropped him down a bit in my rankings as a result, but there's still enough there to intrigue me. I understand that it looks like hypocrisy. We're trying to predict the future based on the past. People are going to draw different conclusions. Some people look at DMC and see the same things that I see when I look at Stewart. Some people look at Stewart and see the same things that I see when I look at DMC. All I'm providing is my own personal take. Maybe I have it backwards. Maybe not. Only the next few years can give us the answer.
greggorymac
Footballguy
Ding, Ding, Ding...'SSOG said:
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Well, a glass WR anyways.
Dez
Footballguy
I can't be reading this right you have Mendenhall at 13 ? Tell me this isn't right he has looked like complete crap for 2 years and is about to be out of Pittsburgh.You have David Wilson and Murray below Mendenhall ? I own Mendenhall in 2 leagues if I offered him for either of those guys I would be laughed out of the league.My first pass at some new dynasty RB rankingsoug MartinTrent Richardson ---------------------------Ray RiceCJ SpillerJamaal CharlesLeSean McCoy --------------------------- Arian FosterAdrian PetersonMarshawn Lynch ---------------------------Ryan MathewsAlfred MorrisStevan RidleyRashard MendenhallDavid WilsonDeMarco MurrayJonathan Stewart After you get past those guys, you are mainly left to choose between low probability prospects and low longevity veterans. I think the context of your team becomes a major driving factor. For example, on a rebuilding team I would not want MJD or Chris Johnson. On a contender, Bernard Pierce and Bryce Brown would not do me a lot of good. Rather than trying to mix these groups together, I kept them separate. The old guys:Matt ForteChris JohnsonMaurice Jones-DrewBenjarvus Green-EllisDarren McFaddenReggie Bush---------------------Darren SprolesFrank GoreSteven Jackson---------------------DeAngelo WilliamsKnowshon MorenoShonn Greene---------------------Felix JonesFred JacksonCedric Benson The prospects:Bernard PierceBryce BrownBen TateMikel LeshoureLamar MillerLaMichael JamesMark IngramRobert Turbin--------------Vick BallardDaryl RichardsonRonnie Hillman--------------Quizz RodgersToby GerhartBrandon BoldenJonathan Dwyer---------------Chris IvoryDuJuan HarrisKendall HunterDaniel Thomas
squistion
Footballguy
Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner.Most players have strengths and weaknesses. Not every player is well suited to every offensive scheme or system - some excel in some and fail in others. For instance, Josh McDaniels "Hot Reads" offense requires an improvisational aspect for QBs and WRs to react after the snap to what the defense is showing them and some players do well in that system, while some don't.
McFadden was a fish-out-of-water in a zone blocking scheme, it didn't play to his strengths as a RB. The Raiders are abandoning zone blocking and returning to an offense similar to the one he had in 2010-2011. If he can stay healthy (admittedly a big "if") he should have a major bounce back year.
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Dez
Footballguy
Interesting looking back at stuff. Here was the draft from the $1250 FFPC rookie 1st round draft last year. So Redman went before Luck and Griffin and those 2 fell to 10 and 12.Fleener and Quick went 3/4 over Wilson, Blackmon, Luck and Griffin.1.12 Cavalier King Char Griffin, R. QB (WAS) 1.11 ~ INVICTUS ~ Hillman, R. RB (DEN) 1.10 ~ INVICTUS ~ Luck, A. QB (IND) 1.9 For Taylar Jeffery, A. WR (CHI) 1.8 $ EARN-IN MOUNT VE Redman, I. RB (PIT) 1.7 For Taylar Floyd, M. WR (ARI) 1.6 For Taylar Wilson, D. RB (NYG) 1.5 Three Arch Bay Ban Blackmon, J. WR (JAC) 1.4 ~ INVICTUS ~ Quick, B. WR (STL) 1.3 ~ INVICTUS ~ Fleener, C. TE (IND) 1.2 Cornfins 1250 Martin, D. RB (TAM) 1.1 For Taylar Richardson, T. RB
EBF
Footballguy
And I'm sure you would've been laughed out of the league if you had offered Lynch for Darren McFadden a few years back. It doesn't matter what people think. All that matters is the outcome. If you trade Calvin Johnson for Devon Wylie and Wylie outscores him for the rest of their careers, you win. Considering that dynasty leagues involve multiple year projections, most rankings are just redraft rankings slanted with a preference for youth. What you see on most lists is just a mirror of last year's performance. So the guys who did well last year like Peterson, Spiller, and Martin are the hot names. The guys who disappointed like Mathews, Mendenhall, and McFadden are ice cold. And next year if Morris or Martin has a bad season, they'll be whipping boys like Mathews is right now. I've been around long enough to see the same cycle repeat itself every year.
I incorporate last year's production into my rankings just like everybody else. You can see that I have guys like Martin, Spiller, and Morris pretty high. Maybe higher than they deserve. On the other hand, I also try to maintain perspective and realize that player values will often ebb and flow, and that you need to try to maintain perspective throughout the highs and the lows. So if a guy like Mendenhall or Stewart who was a top prospect with a pretty good track record of production suffers through a bad year, I don't just automatically forget about him.
What I try to do is get a sense for a player's actual worth independent of whatever stats he happened to post last year. This is why I'm often accused of being stubborn and rigid in my valuations. I try not to overreact to short term results. Good players have bad seasons. And vice versa. To be clear, I don't think Mendenhall is some godly talent. I never did. That's become a popular myth around here. I actually had him rated below Stewart until he got picked by the Steelers. I liked the landing spot and thought he was a safe pick there, so I moved him up. I never talked about him like he was the second coming of Tomlinson or Peterson. Never felt that way and still don't. He isn't an amazing back.
However, I definitely don't think he's garbage either. If he was a bad player, he wouldn't have been a first round pick and he wouldn't have held down a starting job for three years on a playoff team. He's a good back. He runs a 4.41 at a rock solid 225 pounds. That's a special power/speed combination. If you put him in this draft class, he would be the first RB drafted. He was a higher pick than David Wilson and was a more highly-regarded prospect. He's 25 years old and he has two 1000+ rushing seasons already to his name. My feeling on him is that he's a solid mid-level NFL starter. Not an elite back like Peterson, but good enough to start for probably 10-15 teams in the league. I think he will emerge as a starter next year and put up another fringe top 10 kind of season.
Is it wrong to value a guy like this over Wilson, who's accomplished nothing in his NFL career? Wilson is an awesome athlete. He was a high draft pick and a great college player. I actually recommended him as a buy low candidate before his hype really kicked into overdrive. But you're kidding yourself if you think he's a lock to become a perennial star. Maybe he'll do it. Maybe he won't. Let's not forget that for every Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson there are a lot of guys like Kevin Jones, Ryan Mathews, and Cadillac Williams. Today's "next big thing" is tomorrow's "OMG how can you have him rated in the top 15?" When you talk about a lot of these up-and-coming backs like Wilson, Seastrunk, Gurley, and Yeldon, just realize that quite a few of them will go the way of Kevin Jones/McFadden/Benson. So it's really not such a travesty to take a solid, mid-level veteran over a prospect who may or may not be better.
I'd say the same thing at WR. Michael Floyd is the WR version of David Wilson, and yet I don't see people outraged about ranking him below someone like Dwayne Bowe, who's pretty comparable to Mendenhall in a lot of ways. If you take the unproven prospect and he ends up being the real deal, he obviously has a lot more value than the modest veteran. On the flipside, if he ends up being the next Robert Meachem or Kevin Jones, you just got hosed.
Just something I've noticed on the last couple of pages that I'd like to ask about. Brandon Bolden. What are people seeing there to make him worth adding on lists such as these from EBF and the other day by wdcrob? As a Pats fan myself I'm not sure how he manages to become relevant anytime soon. I listen to the podcast of the guys who cover the team three times a week, and just recently they have been pushing Vereen so much that I'm going to try and get him, but Bolden never gets mentioned.
Dez
Footballguy
Well you took the time to write all that and you know what if you believe in how you feel about players that is great. Personally I am very worried about both Mendenhall and Stewart and I have both in a few leagues I have been trying to trade Stewart in 1 league and really no one will give anything much for him so I have to stick it out with the guy. I just can't see it happening for either guy hope I am wrong and you are right. I took Mendenhall in the middle rounds last year hoping by midseason last year he would be back to form but after what I seen last year I have major doubts. I would certainly trade either guy for Wilson or Murray because I don't really believe in either like you do.So my question to you is would you actually trade a guy like Wilson for a Mendenhall ? I don't think you would but you probably wouldn't have to either if you had a Wilson you could trade him for Mendenhall and more or you would trade a guy you like less for Mendenhall or Stewart while they are cheap.
Have you traded for either guy this year ? What did you give up to get them if you did ?
EBF
Footballguy
I'd argue that he's a bit like Green-Ellis or Ballard. An average athlete with the right kind of frame and playing style to be an effective pro back. 5'11" 220 with just enough foot quickness to be effective. You put him out there and he's not going to amaze anybody, but he's serviceable. He did quite well as a rookie. 4.9 YPC. Granted, he was also on PEDs, but a big part of the reason why he's a decent option is because he costs nothing. You grab a guy like this for dirt cheap and stick him on the end of your bench, and maybe he gets a chance someday. Personally, I don't think that highly of Vereen. That's not really the point though. With a guy like Bolden, Pierce, or Turbin, you're not necessarily banking on any one given scenario (i.e. him being traded or the starter getting hurt). You're banking on the player himself, knowing that he's capable of producing whenever the opportunity finally arises.
EBF
Footballguy
No way. The Wilson hype is in full flight. I think I read that he's going as high as the 2nd-3rd round of startups now. There's still some upside in that range. If he becomes the next Spiller or the next Tomlinson, there's still room for him to rise. But there's also a lot of room for him to fall. I don't have him anywhere, but if I did I might look to cash him out for a WR or a lower ranked RB + picks.
Yes, I've traded for both within the past several months. I made a really bad deal for Stewart back in November. Gave up what ended up being the 1.03 rookie pick for Stewart and a 3rd round pick. To put it into context, this was when the talk of him auditioning for the starting role was in overdrive. I saw it as an inflection point for his value. If he had seized the job and looked like the Stewart of old, I think his value would've jumped a lot. But instead he got hurt and the deal blew up in my face. That was a bad trade. No way around it. If I'd just held the pick, it would've been worth a lot more in March or April. And in that format (start 1 RB) there's not much incentive to overpay for a RB. Poor decision. On the other hand, Stewart is a better talent than any RB in this draft. And I don't like the WR prospects available either. No Blackmon, Richardson, or Luck in this crew. That's a big part of why I was willing to give up a high pick in the first place. Just a few days ago I gave up the 1.02 rookie pick in a 14 team start 2 RB league with dev players for Mendenhall. I consider this a much more reasonable trade. Eddie Lacy, Keenan Allen, Justin Hunter, Robert Woods, Gio Bernard, Tyler Eifert, Da'Rick Rogers, Marquess Wilson, and others are already rostered in that league. The top players likely to be available are guys like Zach Ertz, Stepfan Taylor, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tavon Austin. I'm probably in the minority here, but in this format I would take Mendenhall over all those guys straight up. Especially given team composition. I already had Demaryius, Blackmon, M Lee, Wright, Pitta, Roberts, S Rice, and Givens for my WR/TE slots. At RB all I had was Mathews, Pierce, B Tate, and some college players. In this case I think Mendenhall really improves my lineup and my chances of winning something this year.
squistion
Footballguy
Which makes your rankings of little value for anyone to use as a trade guide. I guess then that is just an informational listing of who you like better in theory (Mendenhall over Wilson) but not in practice of an actual trade situation.
The Comedian
Footballguy
I don't think dynasty rankings are meant to capture what the overall market value is. That would be the definition of useless, in my opinion.EBF would prefer Mendenhall to Wilson, but he knows 99% of people would greatly prefer Wilson over Mendenhall, so it would be pretty stupid of him to do that deal straight up as he could get Mendenhall + + for Wilson.
The way to apply rankings to trade ideas, in my opinion, is to look at anyone who is clearly out of position relative to market value, like Mendenhall. If I put stock into EBF's rankings I would come away from this thread thinking that Mendenhall would be a nice player to target since at least one knowledgeable guy thinks he's being super under-valued right now. That doesn't mean rush out and offer every guy below Mendenhall for him straight up.
Rankings != market trade value
squistion
Footballguy
It is a matter of philosophy. I did Dynasty rankings for two small (now defunct) sites for about 6 years and readers told me that they read them not only for my opinion, but also used them as a guide for start up drafts and for making trades. When I listed one player above another, it also meant that I would take the higher listed player in a startup draft and if offered a straight up trade I would trade the lower ranked player for the higher one.Obviously not everyone views their rankings in that light. But if you hold yourself out as some sort of quasi-expert (as I did) then you should anticipate that some people will take your rankings seriously enough to use them in a draft or trade situation. And EBF recently has been talking about setting up his own rankings website so I think that discussion was merited in this instance (I wouldn't normally bring it up for just anyone who was posting their rankings here).
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The Comedian
Footballguy
Just to add to the discussion, I just (literally) got this deal done in 12 team dynasty PPR:I gave:Michael Turner3.076.08I received:Rashard MendenhallSeeing the ranking of Mendenhall and the discussion about it is what made me think about it and go out and make the offer.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I like Bolden because my RB model says these are the best comparables (in the order I'd have liked them after the combine and before the NFL draft):Vick BallardMark IngramBrandon BoldenCedric BensonStevan RidleyArian FosterAlso, Bolden looked good in his initial NFL work and had Vereen pinned to the bench as well (Vereen was coming off an injury, but couldn't get back on the field). There's no other unproven WW type guy I like nearly as much. He has some durability and potential character concerns, but I believe has three-down complete-back potential on a great offense where every other back has obvious limitations.It's something of a longshot (I could be wrong, the durability and character concerns could prove telling, Vereen and Ridley could be better than I believe), but he was also 100% free to pick up off the WW.
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That's descriptive, not predictive.
EBF
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
That is getting Mendenhall very cheap. I would buy him for that as well
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I just wanted to make some comments on recent RB rankings here.I see MJD, Forte and Chris Johnson all being discounted because they are now 27 years old. While at the same time Rashard Mendenhall and Johnathan Stewart because they are currently 25 still being considered in the tier of startable RB.I would rather have any of those 3 RB than Mendenhall or Stewart despite them being 27-28 years old and closer to a decline in production/value. I think they are better players and more capable of providing me starting quality stats. Mendenhall may only be moving to a time share and Stewart has been in one for a long time. The uncertainty about the futures of these players would not allow me to rank them higher than the other 3 just because of potentially 2 more years of their careers.I think all 5 players have some question marks but based on how wdcrob and EBF ranked them I would be looking to buy MJD, Forte, Johnson and sell Mendenhall and Stewart.I think Mendenhall is the least talented RB of this group.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm really leery of Chris Johnson. His game is all speed, and speed is the first thing that goes. I think he hits the wall soon.MJD and Forte I'm a little more receptive to. They aren't really THAT old and their mileage isn't that high even though it feels like they've been around forever. I think they're good options if you're just looking for 1-2 more solid RB1 seasons. From that standpoint I can definitely understand ranking them ahead of guys like Stewart and Mendenhall. They're more likely to be useful. I don't think there's quite as much potential for a high exit value though. One thing that worries me a little bit with MJD is the injury stuff. In the past I've been overly paranoid about players recovering from injuries. It's something that I don't plan to emphasize as much in the future. But even so, you never quite know if he's going to be the same guy when he gets back. One thing a lot of athletes and everyday people seem to agree on is that the older you get, the harder it is to bounce back from injuries. Even small knocks take longer to heal.
Isn't that what rankings are intended to be? I've seen others also question some other individuals' rankings based on this, as well, and I struggle with the issue.My view is that I see rankings as an informational listing to run a team by and build your team with, whereas ADP listings based on recent startups or mocks are the true value gauges. The two need to be used together.
ETA: I see your note above now after posting this. While some readers do appear to use rankings as value gauges, I think that's a mistake. If that's what people are doing, "experts" on sites are better served performing mock start-up drafts throughout the year and posting ADP rankings every few weeks. Maybe sites need to have their rankers disclose their ranking philosophy so each reader can evaluate each staffer's rankings, but I'd prefer something like what EBF is putting forward with how he personally ranks players based on future projections, skill evaluation, etc.
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I've tried to buy both Stewart and Mendenhall and can't get either. Offered Britt straight up for both in separate deals and I've been rejected. Looks like both are a hold.
Horrendous draft by invictus. He got lucky with luck falling back to him after passing on him for quick & fleener
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
Kinda par for the course with Invictus. That's why he usually quits his leagues after a few years.Wonder if there is unusual QB scoring in FFPC format. Otherwise have no idea why Luck and RG3 would fall that far.
I could see the Mendy owner going for that, but I'd much rather have Stewart than Britt. Stewart is also going prior to Britt in many (possibly every) mock/startup I've seen this offseason.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't think Britt is good enough bait to land a possible starting RB. Britt has a lot of issues himself. He has talent but most are likely staying away until they see him playing at a high level again and out of trouble.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am far from a fan of CJ's boom/bust style of running the ball. Despite that I noticed he recovered his game somewhat 2nd half of the season. I also see the Titans being talked about as a possible team to pick Warmack. If they do upgrade the blocking I can see CJ having some good seasons before the wheels fall off. I also think Greg Williams will help the Titan defense which should help them run the ball more consistently and thus CJ being more productive. Why do you think he will decline rapidly soon? Looking at his numbers they continue to be up and down. However he did manage 195yds one game 141yds in 2 others as well as 2 more games over 120. He seemed to come out of his slump right after I compared him to Trung Canidate.
Well this is the thing. The RB position except for a very select few of them cannot maintain a top 10-12 status of performance more than 2 seasons. So why rank them for more than that at all? Exit value would have to be capitalized through a trade, Mendenhall will be in the same window that you are downgrading the 27 year old now in 2 seasons. Right now he does not have a team.Not to put too fine a point on it but you at one point you thought Forte was only a average RB and would lose his job to a better talent at some point. You thought because of Fortes lack of talent that he would not be kept as the Bears starter and the team would move on. This is exactly what is happening to Mendenhall now. That did not happen to Forte got an extension with the Bears. So how is it that Mendenhall could still be considered more valuable?Mendenhall will not likely ever see a contract like Forte got from the Bears so the $$ tells me that Forte is a more valuable RB than Mendenhall.
MJD should be fine and ready for training camp. He is not happy with his situation in Jax right now, thus the hold out, and then subsequent injury. But it was not lis franc as often rumored so I am not sure that I should be concerned. MJD has also said he will not hold out this preseason and that he is putting his best foot forward in the last year of his contract playing for another pay day. I think he will be plenty motivated and have a good season. Then possibly another season or 2 more with a new team or re-signed by Jax.I can agree with you from a stand point of the younger player giving a larger time frame that you could potentially trade that player, but you would not likely be able to get an owner of these 3 RB to trade you one of them for Mendenhall unless his situation greatly improves from where it stands today. In other words Mendenhall needs to land in an ideal situation to have even value with those players. On that basis I could not rank a player who I need a lucky break with higher than something I can at least quantify as likely to happen, and that is also likely as good or better than Mendenhalls upside in a ideal situation.
EBF
Footballguy
Part of the reason why I posted the rankings was to get feedback. I think I'll reconsider where I have Forte/MJD versus Stewart/Mendenhall for some of the reasons that you provided. I do think Forte and MJD are better for the really short window teams. With a younger team that's not as certain to compete next year, I might still take the latter pair.
Regarding Mendenhall vs. Forte, that was years ago. Obviously I undersold Matt's abilities. At the same time, he never tore his ACL. Two different situations. Without that injury, Mendenhall remains the starter in Pittsburgh all along. So I don't fully buy into this idea that he lost his job because he was mediocre. I think he's the best back they have. Most Pittsburgh fans seem to feel that way. Last year was kind of a lost season with him struggling through injuries and then having some clashes with the coaching staff. I think he'd benefit from a change of scenery. Pitt wasn't a great team last season. None of the RBs they put out there set the world on fire. But if he stays there, I'd look for him to get his job back.
Nobody is saying that you should sell the farm to go out and get guys like Stewart and Mendenhall. On the other hand, I like those two from a risk/reward standpoint. The fact that a lot of people think they're crap is the only reason why they're available. If you go knocking on the door for Ray Rice or Jamaal Charles (both of whom are older), you're going to get quoted an insane price. We're talking about a much lower pay grade here. Look at some of the deals people have posted for Stewart and Mendenhall. If you can get either at market value, I think they're nice options in leagues that place a premium on RBs. It's not easy to find a serviceable RB2 in a 14 team start 2 RB league. If you can get that for the price of a top 10-15 rookie pick or a mediocre player at another position, it's definitely a move that I'd consider.
Regarding Mendenhall vs. Forte, that was years ago. Obviously I undersold Matt's abilities. At the same time, he never tore his ACL. Two different situations. Without that injury, Mendenhall remains the starter in Pittsburgh all along. So I don't fully buy into this idea that he lost his job because he was mediocre. I think he's the best back they have. Most Pittsburgh fans seem to feel that way. Last year was kind of a lost season with him struggling through injuries and then having some clashes with the coaching staff. I think he'd benefit from a change of scenery. Pitt wasn't a great team last season. None of the RBs they put out there set the world on fire. But if he stays there, I'd look for him to get his job back.
Nobody is saying that you should sell the farm to go out and get guys like Stewart and Mendenhall. On the other hand, I like those two from a risk/reward standpoint. The fact that a lot of people think they're crap is the only reason why they're available. If you go knocking on the door for Ray Rice or Jamaal Charles (both of whom are older), you're going to get quoted an insane price. We're talking about a much lower pay grade here. Look at some of the deals people have posted for Stewart and Mendenhall. If you can get either at market value, I think they're nice options in leagues that place a premium on RBs. It's not easy to find a serviceable RB2 in a 14 team start 2 RB league. If you can get that for the price of a top 10-15 rookie pick or a mediocre player at another position, it's definitely a move that I'd consider.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
There was an article published in the Tennessean yesterday about Kenny Britt. My link
From Randy Moss:
I can't really speak about it because I have been into trouble off the field myself," Moss said. "But from what I have seen Kenny Britt do, man, if he gets his mind right, Kenny Britt can get up in elite class very quickly. I am a big fan of his.
"Kenny Britt is a young receiver who can get in that A.J. Green, Julio Jones mix if he wants to, and does the things to make it happen. But his is more mental than it is physical. I hope it works out for him because he is quite a talent. That guy could be special."
Looking around here, I've seen him ranked anywhere from WR18-54. Personally, I think if you can get him for WR3 prices it could be a total steal. One of the hardest things to acquire in a dynasty league is a young elite WR (Britt is 24). Rarely can you get a talent like him for a price like that. Clearly there is risk there, but we've seen other troubled players suddenly "get it" and turn their careers around. I don't know Kenny Britt on any sort of personal level, but in reading the tea leaves I feel he's a great candidate for just such a turn around. (lots of quotes regarding Britt being a good person, but always getting into trouble when hanging out with his old friends in NJ.)
I've only got him in one league, but I think I'll be looking to acquire elsewhere.
From Randy Moss:
I can't really speak about it because I have been into trouble off the field myself," Moss said. "But from what I have seen Kenny Britt do, man, if he gets his mind right, Kenny Britt can get up in elite class very quickly. I am a big fan of his.
"Kenny Britt is a young receiver who can get in that A.J. Green, Julio Jones mix if he wants to, and does the things to make it happen. But his is more mental than it is physical. I hope it works out for him because he is quite a talent. That guy could be special."
Looking around here, I've seen him ranked anywhere from WR18-54. Personally, I think if you can get him for WR3 prices it could be a total steal. One of the hardest things to acquire in a dynasty league is a young elite WR (Britt is 24). Rarely can you get a talent like him for a price like that. Clearly there is risk there, but we've seen other troubled players suddenly "get it" and turn their careers around. I don't know Kenny Britt on any sort of personal level, but in reading the tea leaves I feel he's a great candidate for just such a turn around. (lots of quotes regarding Britt being a good person, but always getting into trouble when hanging out with his old friends in NJ.)
I've only got him in one league, but I think I'll be looking to acquire elsewhere.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Any thoughts/rumblings on Chris Ivory? I would love to see him get a shot somewhere to at least play a 50/50 role....doubt anyone would look at him as a clear starter but he seems to make noise when he gets the ball. Any news on if NO plans on keeping him around?
MAC_32
Footballguy
Given the draft class I don't see anyone bidding enough to pry him away from the saints. Interesting august buy imho
cstu
Footballguy
I believe Britt is a good candidate to get it together this year. He's in the last year of his contract so if he wants to get paid well he's needs to play well. I risked a 6.09 pick (30th WR) in a startup on him. Who knows though, it's Kenny Britt.
I own Rice and Peterson, and another owner offered me Pierce/Gerhart for Britt. I turned him down. I wasn't a fan of Britt the Headcase when he was commanding top-20 prices, but now that his value has dropped through the floor, he's a great buy. I love him as the highest upside wr3/4 you'll ever be able to get your hands in. I like Pierce, and Gerhart is not without value, but I'm deep enough at RB that I don't need to handcuff, so I'd rather use the roster spot on a guy who is, in my opinion, much more likely to become a difference maker (or, at the very least, see a dramatic rise in market value).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I like Kenny Britt, drafted him as a rookie. I do not think there is any denying of his talent, he is capable of being a top WR with improved QB play. The issue with him is more about if he can get his life right so that you can have confidence he will not wear out his welcome in the league. I do not think you should be counting on Britt to start for your team however and I can see why some may not be looking to buy him right now. I do not have a lot of confidence in the QB situation for Britt right now and there are other receivers on the team taking potential targets away from him. I see Britt as more of a stash for after he leaves the Titans in free agency. I think the Titans are going to have another coaching change perhaps as soon as next season and I do not expect Britt to light it up in 2013. So hard to speculate where that destination might be and how that works out for him. My concern is about the off field behavior derailing his chances to become a lead WR for a new team after this year. I do not see Locker taking a big enough step forward for Britt to have a good-great season. If Wright continues to lead the team in targets (which I think he will) the opportunity for Britt is limited.Thinking about it further I do think it was a good player to dangle for other unknowns such as Mendenhall. I just think the risk with Britt is not something a lot of owners will be wanting to take on.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Right. I totally agree with you that these players are value buys right now because of the risk you are taking on providing much of the discount. That is why I brought up MJD, CJ and Forte who I also see as value buys right now that you are much lower on but who I think are just as if not more viable.'EBF said:
SSOG was talking about exploiting people who follow more short term dynasty strategy by exploiting the errors of their perspective/projections over time, for the most part by having a longer view of the talent and ability of players that are under valued because short term projections not assigning value to the later years of a players expected career.
The reason I brought this up is to illustrate how one can exploit owners by looking at how they devalue RB when they turn 27 years old. Trying to be ahead of the curve and future planning owners may not be looking to buy a RB over 26. Like you they may want to trade their guy when he hits 27 to recoup as much of the players value as possible before the trade value of the player totally falls off (due to being 30ish).
So if I could buy those 3 RB because their owners are now looking to sell them because of their age, and at a discount, for example by trading Stewart for MJD or maybe even MJD + ?? I will take that deal because I may be able to buy Stewart back at a lower price 2 years from now for the same reason.
RB have very short careers compared to other players and many of their seasons are erratic. Except for a few players who can maintain that top level of performance most of them get 2 maybe 3 very good seasons and the rest not so much. You really only want them during those best years and for most RB those seasons happen between age 25-27 but not all. I do understand the perspective of this affecting a players value. From the idea of buy low/sell high this tells me that getting the RB prior to their best seasons is the goal moreso than maintaining exit trade value. I would look at these players and buy into the other guys sell when he is already giving the player at a discount because he sees that players value dropping because of age after the season.
Instinctive
Footballguy
To add to this value gauging...I just got him for 2.06 in a rookie draft.
ETA: Also got him for Ponder + 3.09
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One More Rep
Footballguy
I am not really a Mendenhall guy but I would take a shot on him for the 2.6.To add to this value gauging...I just got him for 2.06 in a rookie draft.
squistion
Footballguy
Which means they don't have a shrine to him in their apartment
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I'm hoping to get a few opinions on Mike Williams. He came into the league in 2010, and fell to the 4th round because of some pretty sketchy behavior at Syracuse. Yet he tore up the Tampa Bay training camp, won the #1 WR position and finished as WR11 with 65/964/11. At that point, he was dismissed by many as a one trick pony. The character concerns came to the forefront in 2011, as the pretty much the whole Tampa team quit about half way through the season. Williams was reportedly one of the problems, and finished 65/771/3 or WR50. Written off by most, he entered 2012 as Tampa's #2 guy behind newly signed VJAX. Reports were that VJAX took Williams under his wings a bit and showed him how to be a pro. Williams finished with 63/996/9 or WR18. Yet at this point, I consistently see him going somewhere between WR36-47 in startups.
He's got plenty of speed (4.53) for his size 6'2" 212. He's proven to be a very good red zone threat. (that's good in fantasy football right?) There doesn't seem to be concerns about his route running, or his ability to get off press coverage. Athletically, he tests out as a top notch prospect. My link
So we've got a 25 year old WR that has seemingly overcome his biggest question mark coming into the NFL. (character). He's got a low end WR1 finish, and a mid WR2 finish in the two years he tried. Yet he's somehow falling into WR4 territory in drafts.
What am I missing here?
He's got plenty of speed (4.53) for his size 6'2" 212. He's proven to be a very good red zone threat. (that's good in fantasy football right?) There doesn't seem to be concerns about his route running, or his ability to get off press coverage. Athletically, he tests out as a top notch prospect. My link
So we've got a 25 year old WR that has seemingly overcome his biggest question mark coming into the NFL. (character). He's got a low end WR1 finish, and a mid WR2 finish in the two years he tried. Yet he's somehow falling into WR4 territory in drafts.
What am I missing here?
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think you're on to something, here. But I also think his rookie season was rather fluky and isn't likely to be repeated; he's no longer the #1 on his team and he won't have such a high goal line target ratio. But he is a talent, is young, does have a track record, and I think he is a good bet to repeat his WR2 numbers as long as he is in his current situation. There is a stigma - which is often off the mark - about owning players who are not the #1 option on their team. Some still bring it up when talking about Aaron Hernandez. Thrifty brought up a good point a couple days ago: There is very high "good" player turnover in the NFL. People feel better investing in greatness and potential, than established "good" players - right or wrong.
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