Dynasty Rankings (4 Viewers)

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

I'm curious about your thoughts on Pat White. I'm a big fan of players that produced in college, and there is no doubt that White produced. I don't know if he's future QB1 material, but I think he could be solid QB2 eventually, especially if he gets good numbers on the ground. The reports of accuracy problems in mini-camp are disconcerting though.

Im not sure how much value White will have as a QB. I really like him if he gets listed as a WR, and plays QB in the Wildcat while also being used as a slot WR and get the occasional carry/reverse.A statline of:5/7, 60 yards passing5 carries for 25 yards3 receptions for 35 yardsThrow in a TD with those numbers and you have a valuable #2 WR. As a QB those numbers probably arent worth a #3 QB.I just dont see him ever being a full time QB.

I wish he'd get listed as a non-QB as well, honestly. That would be where his real value would lie. Even if he isn't, though, a stat line of 1500 yards passing, 10 TDs, and 600 yards rushing with 5 TDs would make him a very solid backup QB. I could see a system like that evolving, but it would certainly be a system we haven't seen before.

Not sure how long he would be a starting NFL QB while putting up those kind of numbers. I do suppose its possible he is good enough to be a starting QB in the NFL, i just dont see it.

I certainly agree he wouldn't be starting with those numbers, but I wasn't clear in that I wasn't envisioning him as a starter. Those numbers were what I was guessing if he remained as purely a Wildcat player with all other snaps going to Henne/Pennington.

To reach those marks, White would have to take around 40% of the Dolphins total snaps in the wildcat. Im not sure that is realistic.

 

[mcintyre1]

To reach those marks, White would have to take around 40% of the Dolphins total snaps in the wildcat. Im not sure that is realistic.

That's why I was saying it would be a system we haven't seen before. Though I agree it is highly unlikely.

 

[SSOG]

As a Viking fan I hope FL is right about Harvin, but I am not as optimistic. First, he is not a pure receiver and will need to improve his receiving skills. Yes, the Vikings will try to involve him in the run game, but you can only run so many reverses and end arounds. Finally, he plays for a team that still does not have an elite QB and does have an elite RB who will command the lion share of touches in that offense. He may develop into a top 10 WR and I hope he does, but the odds for rookie WRs are higher than for rookie RBs.

Everyone loves Crabtree, and he is talented, but he isn't even signed yet and will have a hard time displacing Morgan and Bruce this year. Add to that the fact that SF does not have a QB and I am lukewarm on him.

Wells and Brown? I took Brown with the 1.04 and a few weeks later the guy who took Wells at 1.03 offered me a straight up trade. I declined. Why? I like Brown's character and situation and history much more. Wells has an easier path to starting this year (but Addai has injury and producitivity questions) and may be more talented, but the talent difference is much less than the other differences that favor Brown. Brown had one of the best Combine performances (top performer in six of seven categories), so the idea that he lacks physical skills is not really accurate. Brown has a better body of work from college where he led all rushers last season. Brown has shown he can carry the ball alot and is durable; Wells has not proven that he is durable. Wells is a flake and Brown is a leader and straight arrow with a good work ethic. Brown is better in PPR as he showed in the Combine that he can catch the ball very well and he plays for a team that will pass to the HB alot. Brown was picked higher in the draft by a team that historically has a more potent offense.

1) Moreno--he is arguably the most talented RB and is in a situation where he will be featured.

2) Donald Brown

3) Crabtree

4) Wells

5) Maclin--great QB, great passing offense, and a good situation for a young WR

6) Nicks--good QB, NFL ready WR, clear opening to start quickly.

7) Britt

8) Heys

9) Harvin

I watched every game of Harvin's NFL career. He's the Reggie Bush of the east coast, minus that 500 all purpose yardage game, the Heisman, and the overwhelming draft day hype. Obviously Reggie Bush hasn't been the gangbusters that everyone predicted in the NFL, but just because he was too hesitant for the pro game doesn't mean No Mercy Harvin will be (if anything, I'd say the biggest difference between Bush and Harvin in college was Bush's hesitency and Harvin's durability).Harvin averaged over NINE POINT FIVE yards per carry in college. And you can't blame it on sample size, because that's over 194 carries. And you can't blame it on misdirection, because for most of those carries he was lined up in the backfield. He played on the same football team as the fastest football player in America (Jeff Demps, an Olympic-caliber sprinter) and actually played faster than him. His routes might not be that polished, and his hands might not be elite, but there's probably no rookie in this entire class that is as likely to make obscenely good things happen when you get the ball in his hands.

Also, lest you think that Harvin feasted on weak competition, pay special attention to how he did in big games. 170 yards (including 13 yards per carry) against Oklahoma in the NC. 242 yards (including 165 rushing @ 13 ypc) against Michigan in the Capital One Bowl. 142 yards (including 17 yards per carry rushing) against Arkansas in the SECCG as a freshman. I wouldn't be surprised to see Harvin annually average 500 yards rushing on top of anything he gets receiving (80 carries @ 6 ypc), which really just pushes him into another stratosphere compared to his WR peers. He could average 50/800/6 receiving and still be an annual top-12 WR. Harvin is very similar to Michael Vick in fantasy terms, because a glut of non-traditional production could easily overshadow a lack of more traditional production. Or, if you'd rather, think of him like Charlie Garner or Michael Pittman. The traditional numbers won't inspire much confidence, but the total values will stack up well against any other WR in this class.

But to answer your request about players where I have no compunctions about speaking freely, here are the guys that I could easily rank higher -- though I know a couple of them are about as high as I can go:

Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Trent Edwards, Sage Rosenfels, Michael Vick, Shaun Hill, Dennis Dixon

MJD, Chris Johnson, S-Jax, Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, Arian Foster, Jamall Lee

Steve Smith, V-Jax, Lee Evans, Eddie Royal, Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan, Justin Gage, Jarrett Dillard, Steve Johnson, Chris Henry, Matt Jones, Sammie Stroughter

Kellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett, Randy McMichael, Cornelius Ingram

Here are the guys I'd drop even farther than I have them:

Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler (a/k/a p_ssy), Eli, Matt Cassel, JaMarcus Russell, Daunte Culpepper

Clinton Portis, MBIII, Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, LeSean McCoy, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Jerome Harrison

Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Bryant, Laveranues Coles, Brian Robiskie, Kevin Walter, Steve Smith (NYG)

Dallas Clark, John Carlson, Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller, Bo Scaife

I bolded the players I own- 7 on the list of guys you love, 1 on the list of guys you hate (and I've been trying to move Lynch since halfway through his rookie season, but haven't been able to get market value in return yet- I generally think any RB with a career ypc around 4.0 is more interchangeable part than quality offensive piece). In addition, I think I'm the only person on the planet higher on MJD than you are (I believe it was last year or the year before in this thread where I said he's a better RB than Adrian Peterson).That's what I love most about you, F&L- you make me feel smart. It'd probably be better for me to start reading more dissenting opinions and fewer pat-on-the-back opinions... but hey, the vulcan mind meld has been working for me pretty well so far.

I may be the biggest Ben supporter around, but I'd still find it hard to pull the trigger on Ben-for-Rivers straight up. I'd think about it, though. It's interesting to note that Big Ben was coming off the 34 TD, 105 QB rating season a year ago whereas Rivers is coming off it this offseason.

As far as Wayne & Big Ben for Rivers & Ocho, I'd probably do that one. I like Wayne a lot better than Ocho, especially in Dynasty leagues. I don't know if I'd advise someone else to do it, but I'd feel pretty comfortable doing it with my own roster.

I'd *STRONGLY* advise someone to do that trade. Ocho Cinco is damaged goods with a QB that's also damaged goods, and he hasn't performed consistently well in 3+ years now. Roethlisberger probably isn't as good of a fantasy QB as Rivers, but he's not far behind, either- I see Rivers annually finishing somewhere around QB4-QB6, while Roethlisberger finishes around QB6-QB10. Remember, Ben's TD% was a massive aberration last year (his lowest non-motorcycle-injury TD% was 5.8. Last year, his TD% was 3.6). If he'd been closer to his career averages on those two figures (say 8 ypa and 5.2 TD%), we're looking at 3800/24 passing (along with 100/2 rushing) and a much less disappointing fantasy season. Unless you think that the drastic drop in ypa and TD% is indicative of something deeper than random year-to-year fluctuation, Ben is a safe bet at starting QB going forward.

I think Torain is an extreme long-shot for fantasy value. There's always a chance he catches on with another team, but nobody liked him as much as Shanahan did. And he won't be given more than a No. 3 role to start. His best chance for Dynasty value was last season under Shanny -- it's just unfortunate that he went down in the same game where he got his best chance at NFL stardom.

Realistically, Torain's probably the first name on the chopping block when I need to cut someone from my team to make room. Which is a huge disappointment as a Denver fan, because I think that McDaniels would have been perfectly fine entering the season with Torain as his #1 (certainly Moreno isn't a big enough upgrade over Torain/Hillis to merit the #12 overall pick). This is despite the fact that I'm really not a Moreno fan at all- I just think McDaniels has too much invested in him for him to fail. I also think that Moreno's skill set might give him a low ceiling (talent-wise- no Denver RB will ever have a low ceiling fantasy-wise, especially behind THAT line), but it also gives him a high floor.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

As a Viking fan I hope FL is right about Harvin, but I am not as optimistic. First, he is not a pure receiver and will need to improve his receiving skills. Yes, the Vikings will try to involve him in the run game, but you can only run so many reverses and end arounds. Finally, he plays for a team that still does not have an elite QB and does have an elite RB who will command the lion share of touches in that offense. He may develop into a top 10 WR and I hope he does, but the odds for rookie WRs are higher than for rookie RBs.

Everyone loves Crabtree, and he is talented, but he isn't even signed yet and will have a hard time displacing Morgan and Bruce this year. Add to that the fact that SF does not have a QB and I am lukewarm on him.

Wells and Brown? I took Brown with the 1.04 and a few weeks later the guy who took Wells at 1.03 offered me a straight up trade. I declined. Why? I like Brown's character and situation and history much more. Wells has an easier path to starting this year (but Addai has injury and producitivity questions) and may be more talented, but the talent difference is much less than the other differences that favor Brown. Brown had one of the best Combine performances (top performer in six of seven categories), so the idea that he lacks physical skills is not really accurate. Brown has a better body of work from college where he led all rushers last season. Brown has shown he can carry the ball alot and is durable; Wells has not proven that he is durable. Wells is a flake and Brown is a leader and straight arrow with a good work ethic. Brown is better in PPR as he showed in the Combine that he can catch the ball very well and he plays for a team that will pass to the HB alot. Brown was picked higher in the draft by a team that historically has a more potent offense.

1) Moreno--he is arguably the most talented RB and is in a situation where he will be featured.

2) Donald Brown

3) Crabtree

4) Wells

5) Maclin--great QB, great passing offense, and a good situation for a young WR

6) Nicks--good QB, NFL ready WR, clear opening to start quickly.

7) Britt

8) Heys

9) Harvin

I watched every game of Harvin's NFL career. He's the Reggie Bush of the east coast, minus that 500 all purpose yardage game, the Heisman, and the overwhelming draft day hype. Obviously Reggie Bush hasn't been the gangbusters that everyone predicted in the NFL, but just because he was too hesitant for the pro game doesn't mean No Mercy Harvin will be (if anything, I'd say the biggest difference between Bush and Harvin in college was Bush's hesitency and Harvin's durability).Harvin averaged over NINE POINT FIVE yards per carry in college. And you can't blame it on sample size, because that's over 194 carries. And you can't blame it on misdirection, because for most of those carries he was lined up in the backfield. He played on the same football team as the fastest football player in America (Jeff Demps, an Olympic-caliber sprinter) and actually played faster than him. His routes might not be that polished, and his hands might not be elite, but there's probably no rookie in this entire class that is as likely to make obscenely good things happen when you get the ball in his hands.

Also, lest you think that Harvin feasted on weak competition, pay special attention to how he did in big games. 170 yards (including 13 yards per carry) against Oklahoma in the NC. 242 yards (including 165 rushing @ 13 ypc) against Michigan in the Capital One Bowl. 142 yards (including 17 yards per carry rushing) against Arkansas in the SECCG as a freshman. I wouldn't be surprised to see Harvin annually average 500 yards rushing on top of anything he gets receiving (80 carries @ 6 ypc), which really just pushes him into another stratosphere compared to his WR peers. He could average 50/800/6 receiving and still be an annual top-12 WR. Harvin is very similar to Michael Vick in fantasy terms, because a glut of non-traditional production could easily overshadow a lack of more traditional production. Or, if you'd rather, think of him like Charlie Garner or Michael Pittman. The traditional numbers won't inspire much confidence, but the total values will stack up well against any other WR in this class.

But to answer your request about players where I have no compunctions about speaking freely, here are the guys that I could easily rank higher -- though I know a couple of them are about as high as I can go:

Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Trent Edwards, Sage Rosenfels, Michael Vick, Shaun Hill, Dennis Dixon

MJD, Chris Johnson, S-Jax, Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, Arian Foster, Jamall Lee

Steve Smith, V-Jax, Lee Evans, Eddie Royal, Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan, Justin Gage, Jarrett Dillard, Steve Johnson, Chris Henry, Matt Jones, Sammie Stroughter

Kellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett, Randy McMichael, Cornelius Ingram

Here are the guys I'd drop even farther than I have them:

Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler (a/k/a p_ssy), Eli, Matt Cassel, JaMarcus Russell, Daunte Culpepper

Clinton Portis, MBIII, Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, LeSean McCoy, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Jerome Harrison

Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Bryant, Laveranues Coles, Brian Robiskie, Kevin Walter, Steve Smith (NYG)

Dallas Clark, John Carlson, Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller, Bo Scaife

I bolded the players I own- 7 on the list of guys you love, 1 on the list of guys you hate (and I've been trying to move Lynch since halfway through his rookie season, but haven't been able to get market value in return yet- I generally think any RB with a career ypc around 4.0 is more interchangeable part than quality offensive piece). In addition, I think I'm the only person on the planet higher on MJD than you are (I believe it was last year or the year before in this thread where I said he's a better RB than Adrian Peterson).That's what I love most about you, F&L- you make me feel smart. It'd probably be better for me to start reading more dissenting opinions and fewer pat-on-the-back opinions... but hey, the vulcan mind meld has been working for me pretty well so far.

I may be the biggest Ben supporter around, but I'd still find it hard to pull the trigger on Ben-for-Rivers straight up. I'd think about it, though. It's interesting to note that Big Ben was coming off the 34 TD, 105 QB rating season a year ago whereas Rivers is coming off it this offseason.

As far as Wayne & Big Ben for Rivers & Ocho, I'd probably do that one. I like Wayne a lot better than Ocho, especially in Dynasty leagues. I don't know if I'd advise someone else to do it, but I'd feel pretty comfortable doing it with my own roster.

I'd *STRONGLY* advise someone to do that trade. Ocho Cinco is damaged goods with a QB that's also damaged goods, and he hasn't performed consistently well in 3+ years now. Roethlisberger probably isn't as good of a fantasy QB as Rivers, but he's not far behind, either- I see Rivers annually finishing somewhere around QB4-QB6, while Roethlisberger finishes around QB6-QB10. Remember, Ben's TD% was a massive aberration last year (his lowest non-motorcycle-injury TD% was 5.8. Last year, his TD% was 3.6). If he'd been closer to his career averages on those two figures (say 8 ypa and 5.2 TD%), we're looking at 3800/24 passing (along with 100/2 rushing) and a much less disappointing fantasy season. Unless you think that the drastic drop in ypa and TD% is indicative of something deeper than random year-to-year fluctuation, Ben is a safe bet at starting QB going forward.

I think Torain is an extreme long-shot for fantasy value. There's always a chance he catches on with another team, but nobody liked him as much as Shanahan did. And he won't be given more than a No. 3 role to start. His best chance for Dynasty value was last season under Shanny -- it's just unfortunate that he went down in the same game where he got his best chance at NFL stardom.

Realistically, Torain's probably the first name on the chopping block when I need to cut someone from my team to make room. Which is a huge disappointment as a Denver fan, because I think that McDaniels would have been perfectly fine entering the season with Torain as his #1 (certainly Moreno isn't a big enough upgrade over Torain/Hillis to merit the #12 overall pick). This is despite the fact that I'm really not a Moreno fan at all- I just think McDaniels has too much invested in him for him to fail. I also think that Moreno's skill set might give him a low ceiling (talent-wise- no Denver RB will ever have a low ceiling fantasy-wise, especially behind THAT line), but it also gives him a high floor.

Nice to have you back, SSOG. I always enjoy reading your disseminations.

Love what you're saying about Harvin. You've watched him a lot more than I have, so I trust your judgment.

If Harvin gets into camp and starts turning heads soon, I feel another Chris Johnson-like hype train article coming on.

 

[Tau837]

Roethlisberger probably isn't as good of a fantasy QB as Rivers, but he's not far behind, either- I see Rivers annually finishing somewhere around QB4-QB6, while Roethlisberger finishes around QB6-QB10.

I liked your post SSOG, but this part jumped out at me. I find it interesting that you'd project this for Roethlisberger when his actual rankings have gone like this: 20, 18, 12, 5, 17. That is FBG scoring, so perhaps your scoring is different... if not, why exactly do you think he will suddenly take a pretty significant step forward and start annually finishing where he has only reached once in 5 seasons? You mentioned his low TD percentage last season... is that it?Personally, I think Ben is a great NFL QB but a marginal fantasy QB at best.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Completely agree with the Bush comparison SSOG. Which begs the question... why would the Vikes try to make him a WR? Why not use him like the Saints use Bush? We don't know if he can become a polished route runner, develop NFL-caliber WR hands and etc. But we do know he's explosive and that there are players like him that have helped their teams. They should model his role on those players IMO.

 

[gorf]

I watched every game of Harvin's NFL career.

me too good post, SSOG - thanks.

 

[benm3218]

Roethlisberger probably isn't as good of a fantasy QB as Rivers, but he's not far behind, either- I see Rivers annually finishing somewhere around QB4-QB6, while Roethlisberger finishes around QB6-QB10.

I liked your post SSOG, but this part jumped out at me. I find it interesting that you'd project this for Roethlisberger when his actual rankings have gone like this: 20, 18, 12, 5, 17. That is FBG scoring, so perhaps your scoring is different... if not, why exactly do you think he will suddenly take a pretty significant step forward and start annually finishing where he has only reached once in 5 seasons? You mentioned his low TD percentage last season... is that it?Personally, I think Ben is a great NFL QB but a marginal fantasy QB at best.

Maybe because of the progression it shows. He was improving every single year until last year which could appear to be a statistical anomaly?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

This just in: Percy Harvin has signed.

 

[Fodasme69]

This just in: Percy Harvin has signed.

 

[coachjim]

In a new 10 team dynasty PPR the draft just started and has gone: ADP then Fitz.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

In a new 10 team dynasty PPR the draft just started and has gone: ADP then Fitz.

Nothing wrong with that. MJD should go next.

 

[benm3218]

I just pulled the trigger on:

Big Ben, Reggie Wayne, Welker

Rivers, Ocho Cinco

Here's to hoping Big Ben turns last years TD numbers around and Ocho Cinco doesn't put together a huge year...

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I just pulled the trigger on:Big Ben, Reggie Wayne, WelkerRivers, Ocho CincoHere's to hoping Big Ben turns last years TD numbers around and Ocho Cinco doesn't put together a huge year...

Wow, Welker as a throw in? Nicely done.

 

[Hitchcock Presents]

What are your thoughts about St. Louis' No. 2 WR this season and beyond? Do you prefer Burton or Robinson?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What are your thoughts about St. Louis' No. 2 WR this season and beyond? Do you prefer Burton or Robinson?

I'm a Laurent Robinson guy all the way.

 

[benm3218]

I just pulled the trigger on:Big Ben, Reggie Wayne, WelkerRivers, Ocho CincoHere's to hoping Big Ben turns last years TD numbers around and Ocho Cinco doesn't put together a huge year...

Wow, Welker as a throw in? Nicely done.

I thought so too. Welker isn't super exciting to watch but, I think I got an upgrade at WR big time, and hopefully a break even at QB...

 

[maxwelledison]

I just pulled the trigger on:Big Ben, Reggie Wayne, WelkerRivers, Ocho CincoHere's to hoping Big Ben turns last years TD numbers around and Ocho Cinco doesn't put together a huge year...

Wow, Welker as a throw in? Nicely done.

I thought so too. Welker isn't super exciting to watch but, I think I got an upgrade at WR big time, and hopefully a break even at QB...

That is a brutal deal for the other guy.

 

[SSOG]

I liked your post SSOG, but this part jumped out at me. I find it interesting that you'd project this for Roethlisberger when his actual rankings have gone like this: 20, 18, 12, 5, 17. That is FBG scoring, so perhaps your scoring is different... if not, why exactly do you think he will suddenly take a pretty significant step forward and start annually finishing where he has only reached once in 5 seasons? You mentioned his low TD percentage last season... is that it?

Personally, I think Ben is a great NFL QB but a marginal fantasy QB at best.

Basically, my opinion that Roeth is a quality fantasy QB is based strongly around the opinion that 2006 was an aberration in Pitt. Between Roeth's injury and Pitt's surprisingly mediocre defense and weak running game, it was really the perfect storm of circumstances and not an accurate predictor of anything. With that in mind, when analyzing trends with Pitt and Roeth, I ignore 2006 and just look at '04, '05, '07, and '08.Here's Pitt's run/pass totals since Roeth entered the league (ignoring 2006)

358/618

379/549

442/511

506/460

Here's Roeth's per-game passing attempts (again, ignoring 2006)

21.1

22.3

26.9

29.3

That's incredibly clear evidence, in my opinion, that Pitt is giving Roeth the keys and turning themselves into a passing offense. In every single season, the rushing attempts have dropped. In every single season, the passing attempts has risen. In every season, Roeth's per-game passing attempts have risen. I think they've pretty much completed the transition at that point (I don't think the passing/rush ratio will continue to skew more towards the pass), but I think it didn't really show because Roeth had a very un-Roeth season (as I said, career lows in ypa and TD% by a SIGNIFICANT margin).

I'm projecting around 450 attempts a year going forward, and I'm projecting Roethlisberger to continue performing closer to 5%TD/8ypa than to 3%TD/7ypa. That would be 3600/23 or so a year, in addition to another 100/2 rushing. Those numbers would have ranked him 6th, 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 3rd, and 6th over the past 7 seasons. Realistically, I expect his ypa average to be a bit lower now that he's the focal point of the offense (around 7.8 or so), but I also think it's totally reasonable for his TD% to be significantly higher than 5%, too (in his other non-2006 seasons, his TD% was 5.8, 6.3, and 7.9). I think 3400/28 might be a more accurate projection, but it essentially amounts to the same thing either way.

The biggest point in Roethlisberger's favor is that I don't think there's a single QB in the entire league who is more of a first option in the red zone. Pittsburgh *REALLY* trusts Roeth to punch the ball in more than anyone else on the team. It helps that they don't have any elite goal line backs, as well as that they have a glut of elite goal line receiving options (Ward, Holmes, Spaeth, and I think Sweed's going to be pretty good there, too).

Completely agree with the Bush comparison SSOG. Which begs the question... why would the Vikes try to make him a WR? Why not use him like the Saints use Bush? We don't know if he can become a polished route runner, develop NFL-caliber WR hands and etc. But we do know he's explosive and that there are players like him that have helped their teams. They should model his role on those players IMO.

Personally, I think that Bush is ridiculously misused, so naturally I don't think the Vikings should model Harvin's role on Bush's. I don't think that the Vikes should use Harvin more as an RB to match Bush, I think the Saints should use Bush more as a WR to match Harvin. I think the Vikes should use Harvin like Florida did- some carries in the backfield, some carries on reverses and misdirections, some easy screens to get Harvin the ball in space and let him make stuff happen, some deep bombs to drive the safeties nuts, and some passes near the sticks designed to get Harvin the ball in space. Harvin is obscenely buff (link), but I think more than 80-100 or so carries a season is a misuse of resources. There are a lot of things that Harvin isn't. He's not a workhorse, grind-it-out RB. He's not a polished, move-the-chains WR. What he is is an incredible athlete, and the team should go out of its way to get the ball in his hands in a multitude of situations and then just rely on him making good things happen (because, you know, he makes good things happen at an incredible clip).

In a new 10 team dynasty PPR the draft just started and has gone: ADP then Fitz.

Nothing wrong with that. MJD should go next.

I just commented on your blog, but I'd take Fitz #1 overall over Peterson. I think a lot of people get caught up in the whole "Would you rather have a 24-year old Marshall Faulk or a 26-year old Marvin Harrison" thing, and forget that Peterson is no Faulk and Fitzgerald is no Harrison. For everything Harrison did, he was never considered arguably the best player ON HIS OWN TEAM, let alone in the entire league. The only other WRs who have earned that distinction are Moss and Rice. Also, just because Peterson is currently the best RB in the league doesn't mean that Peterson is the current iteration of Tomlinson, Holmes, or Faulk. Faulk never in his career caught fewer than 40 passes a year (even when he was Steven Jackson's caddy). Tomlinson has never caught fewer than 50. Holmes never played more than 8 games for KC while catching fewer than 60. Peterson, on the other hand, has put up 19 and 21 receptions in his two seasons. I don't think he can replicate the longevity or the absurd high-end production of Faulk or Tomlinson without that extra receiving dimension (it's like he's starting the season at a 300 yard and 3 TD disadvantage vs. Faulk/Tomlinson- a heavy deficit to make up just by rushing). Add in the fact that he's never had an elite TD season and I think Peterson is probably more Shaun Alexander/Clinton Portis than Faulk/Tomlinson... and if I had a choice between Moss/Rice at the beginning of their prime and Portis/Alexander at the beginning of theirs... I'd go with the WR. No disrespect to Peterson, who is an unreal NFL talent and a totally legit #1 overall pick... I just don't think he's going to be a fantasy god on the level of Faulk or Tomlinson.P.S. Thanks to EBF for getting me turned on to Fitz. I wound up giving up what seemed like a king's ransom for him at the time (Javon Walker before he was cut from Denver, Antonio Gates, and a rookie first rounder that wound up becoming Chris Johnson), but in hindsight, he was totally worth it.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

What are your thoughts about St. Louis' No. 2 WR this season and beyond? Do you prefer Burton or Robinson?

I'm a Laurent Robinson guy all the way.

Why?

 

[SSOG]

What are your thoughts about St. Louis' No. 2 WR this season and beyond? Do you prefer Burton or Robinson?

I'm a Laurent Robinson guy all the way.

Why?

F&L was high on his talent when he was coming out, and generally he doesn't give up on WRs until 3 years or so into their careers. Nor should he- history is littered with highly drafted "busts" who became stars after everyone gave up on them (including Robinson's teammate, Rowdy Roddy White).

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

What are your thoughts about St. Louis' No. 2 WR this season and beyond? Do you prefer Burton or Robinson?

I'm a Laurent Robinson guy all the way.

Why?

F&L was high on his talent when he was coming out, and generally he doesn't give up on WRs until 3 years or so into their careers. Nor should he- history is littered with highly drafted "busts" who became stars after everyone gave up on them (including Robinson's teammate, Rowdy Roddy White).

Got it, thx.

 

[Burning Sensation]

What are your thoughts about St. Louis' No. 2 WR this season and beyond? Do you prefer Burton or Robinson?

I'm a Laurent Robinson guy all the way.

Why?

F&L was high on his talent when he was coming out, and generally he doesn't give up on WRs until 3 years or so into their careers. Nor should he- history is littered with highly drafted "busts" who became stars after everyone gave up on them (including Robinson's teammate, Rowdy Roddy White).

The only problem with this is Robinson was not highly drafted. Guys drafted in the 3rd round who have less than steller production in their first two years dont usually have break out years in their 3rd year. Sure, it may happen, but it doesnt happen alot more than it does. Roddy White is also not a good example, he was a first round pick. Odds of Robinosn becoming a star are pretty slim. A marginal #2 WR, maybe, but dont expect many 1000 yard seasons in his future.

 

[EBF]

What are your thoughts about St. Louis' No. 2 WR this season and beyond? Do you prefer Burton or Robinson?

I'm a Laurent Robinson guy all the way.

Why?

F&L was high on his talent when he was coming out, and generally he doesn't give up on WRs until 3 years or so into their careers. Nor should he- history is littered with highly drafted "busts" who became stars after everyone gave up on them (including Robinson's teammate, Rowdy Roddy White).

The only problem with this is Robinson was not highly drafted. Guys drafted in the 3rd round who have less than steller production in their first two years dont usually have break out years in their 3rd year. Sure, it may happen, but it doesnt happen alot more than it does. Roddy White is also not a good example, he was a first round pick. Odds of Robinosn becoming a star are pretty slim. A marginal #2 WR, maybe, but dont expect many 1000 yard seasons in his future.

Right, but what's the alternative?Burton was a 4th round pick and Ronald Curry is a journeyman.FWIW, I think it will be an interesting competition. Burton made some nice catches last preseason that caught my eye. I liked Robinson as a prospect, but I've cooled on him a bit. I'm not sure either player is the long term answer.

 

[Neo]

Just wanted to say thanks to F&L for this thread and his blog...it is my one constant resource during dynasty drafts and has helped immensely. Also great to see SSOG around again too. Great job guys, love reading your opinions. Regards.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Right, but what's the alternative?Burton was a 4th round pick and Ronald Curry is a journeyman.FWIW, I think it will be an interesting competition. Burton made some nice catches last preseason that caught my eye. I liked Robinson as a prospect, but I've cooled on him a bit. I'm not sure either player is the long term answer.

I agree that Robinson will have a shot at wining the #2 job, but i think that has more to do with opportunity than his talent. Like i said, he might win the job and be an OK #2 NFL WR, but i just dont like his chances of ever being a startable fantasy WR. I dont agree with SSOG's point about him being a highly drafted prospect that is likely to break out in his 3rd season. I dont actually really buy into the whole WR 3rd season breakout anyway. How many 3rd round picks break out in their 3rd season after two less than average seasons. Especially those that are traded for next to nothing.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What are your thoughts about St. Louis' No. 2 WR this season and beyond? Do you prefer Burton or Robinson?

I'm a Laurent Robinson guy all the way.

Why?

F&L was high on his talent when he was coming out, and generally he doesn't give up on WRs until 3 years or so into their careers. Nor should he- history is littered with highly drafted "busts" who became stars after everyone gave up on them (including Robinson's teammate, Rowdy Roddy White).

The only problem with this is Robinson was not highly drafted. Guys drafted in the 3rd round who have less than steller production in their first two years dont usually have break out years in their 3rd year. Sure, it may happen, but it doesnt happen alot more than it does. Roddy White is also not a good example, he was a first round pick. Odds of Robinosn becoming a star are pretty slim. A marginal #2 WR, maybe, but dont expect many 1000 yard seasons in his future.

I like Robinson because he's a burner with decent size who showed a lot promise late in his rookie season. From what I've seen, he's shown a lot more upside than Burton ... and I think he's a better fit on turf. IMO, Robinson is considerably more talented than Burton (I thought Steve Johnson was the better talent at Kentucky). I used to be a big Ronald Curry supporter, but I think he has a fork sticking out of his back.

 

[SSOG]

Right, but what's the alternative?Burton was a 4th round pick and Ronald Curry is a journeyman.FWIW, I think it will be an interesting competition. Burton made some nice catches last preseason that caught my eye. I liked Robinson as a prospect, but I've cooled on him a bit. I'm not sure either player is the long term answer.

I agree that Robinson will have a shot at wining the #2 job, but i think that has more to do with opportunity than his talent. Like i said, he might win the job and be an OK #2 NFL WR, but i just dont like his chances of ever being a startable fantasy WR. I dont agree with SSOG's point about him being a highly drafted prospect that is likely to break out in his 3rd season. I dont actually really buy into the whole WR 3rd season breakout anyway. How many 3rd round picks break out in their 3rd season after two less than average seasons. Especially those that are traded for next to nothing.

I don't believe in a 3rd-year breakout for WRs, I believe that you should give a WR at least 3 years before cutting bait. If you're high on a WR when he's first coming into the league, give him time before lowering your opinion of him.

 

[Steelers22]

I looked over the past couple of pages and haven't seen anything on mathew stafford. I was just wondering what your thoughts of the guy are? He is going to have a chance to succeed since he has arguably the most talented WR in the league playing for him. I already have peyton manning but have jake delhomme as my QB2 and i'm really not crazy about that situation. I already have good depth at WR and RB so im looking at stafford or sanchez at the end of round 1 of our rookie draft. What do you think his ceiling is? Appreciate all the help. Best and most helpful thread I have ever seen

ps

do you think I should offer up antonio bryant for Harvin and hopefully a bit more? I can see you are extremely high on the guy

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I looked over the past couple of pages and haven't seen anything on mathew stafford. I was just wondering what your thoughts of the guy are? He is going to have a chance to succeed since he has arguably the most talented WR in the league playing for him. I already have peyton manning but have jake delhomme as my QB2 and i'm really not crazy about that situation. I already have good depth at WR and RB so im looking at stafford or sanchez at the end of round 1 of our rookie draft. What do you think his ceiling is? Appreciate all the help. Best and most helpful thread I have ever seenpsdo you think I should offer up antonio bryant for Harvin and hopefully a bit more? I can see you are extremely high on the guy

First, I wouldn't hesitate to part with Antonio Bryant for Harvin. I'd throw more in to get it done if I had to.Re: Stafford. I don't have a very good feel for him yet. Word out of Lions headquarters has been positive all offseason, and beat writer Tom Kowalski (one of the best in the biz) appears smitten with him. He's throwing to Calvin Johnson, and he has a very strong arm. That's a great sign. If Randy Moss can give Jeff George, Randall Cunningham and Daunte Culpepper career season well beyond anything else they've done, then maybe Calvin can do the same for Stafford long-term. On the downside, he's an early entrant and there are questions about his accuracy. If Calvin really is a Moss-like talent, then the positives greatly outweigh the negatives.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Just wanted to say thanks to F&L for this thread and his blog...it is my one constant resource during dynasty drafts and has helped immensely. Also great to see SSOG around again too. Great job guys, love reading your opinions. Regards.

Thanks, Neo.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L - In your rankings, you have Beanie Wells rated higher than many. Mainly I am interested in how you think Beanie compares to Crabtree over the long haul. I'm in a 16 team PPR IDP dynasty league and just traded Ray Rice for pick 1.02. I have LT and Turner at RB (generally start 2) but only Edge as a backup and Roy Williams, A. Bryant, Coles, Holt, and Earl Bennett at WR (generally start 3) plus some ohers. I would pick Moreno if he falls to me. I would appreciate your general thoughts on Wells (and Brown) compared to Crabtree.Thanks.

I don't have a great read on Crabtree. I didn't see him play in college, and we haven't been able to glean anything from offseason workouts because he's been sidelined. OTAs and training camp are usually where I get my best read on a player, and I have bupkes to go on for Crabtree. His college stats are hard to argue with, and by all accounts he's a phenomenal talent, but how much of that was the vaunted Mike Leach spread offense? Is he fast enough to be a superstar?My sense is that Crabtree will be very good. I don't know that he's going to make an instant impact like Harvin, but I still think he'll be a very good NFL WR.Re: Wells. He's a very talented back, and Tim Hightower doesn't concern me one iota. I see Chris Wells as a Jamal Lewis-like RB at the NFL level. He may have one Top-5 season in him, but he's more likely to be around Top-10 because of the average to below average receiving skills. One advantage he may have over a young Jamal Lewis is the Cardinals offense, which will put him in scoring position quite often.There's more Beanie Wells talk on here in the last page or three if you want to browse.

 

[renesauz]

F&L - In your rankings, you have Beanie Wells rated higher than many. Mainly I am interested in how you think Beanie compares to Crabtree over the long haul. I'm in a 16 team PPR IDP dynasty league and just traded Ray Rice for pick 1.02. I have LT and Turner at RB (generally start 2) but only Edge as a backup and Roy Williams, A. Bryant, Coles, Holt, and Earl Bennett at WR (generally start 3) plus some ohers. I would pick Moreno if he falls to me. I would appreciate your general thoughts on Wells (and Brown) compared to Crabtree.Thanks.

I don't have a great read on Crabtree. I didn't see him play in college, and we haven't been able to glean anything from offseason workouts because he's been sidelined. OTAs and training camp are usually where I get my best read on a player, and I have bupkes to go on for Crabtree. His college stats are hard to argue with, and by all accounts he's a phenomenal talent, but how much of that was the vaunted Mike Leach spread offense? Is he fast enough to be a superstar?My sense is that Crabtree will be very good. I don't know that he's going to make an instant impact like Harvin, but I still think he'll be a very good NFL WR.Re: Wells. He's a very talented back, and Tim Hightower doesn't concern me one iota. I see Chris Wells as a Jamal Lewis-like RB at the NFL level. He may have one Top-5 season in him, but he's more likely to be around Top-10 because of the average to below average receiving skills. One advantage he may have over a young Jamal Lewis is the Cardinals offense, which will put him in scoring position quite often.There's more Beanie Wells talk on here in the last page or three if you want to browse.

Watch the late game heroics vs. Texas. Phenomenal talent is an appropriate description. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking him at #1 this year in rookie drafts. High WR picks may be a little more risky then their RB counterparts...but this, to me, is kind of like comparing a Moss/Fitzgerald to Jamal Lewis. (IE: I agree with a Jamal Lewis type upside for Wells...and think Crabtree has Fitz type upside.)

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L - In your rankings, you have Beanie Wells rated higher than many. Mainly I am interested in how you think Beanie compares to Crabtree over the long haul. I'm in a 16 team PPR IDP dynasty league and just traded Ray Rice for pick 1.02. I have LT and Turner at RB (generally start 2) but only Edge as a backup and Roy Williams, A. Bryant, Coles, Holt, and Earl Bennett at WR (generally start 3) plus some ohers. I would pick Moreno if he falls to me. I would appreciate your general thoughts on Wells (and Brown) compared to Crabtree.Thanks.

I don't have a great read on Crabtree. I didn't see him play in college, and we haven't been able to glean anything from offseason workouts because he's been sidelined. OTAs and training camp are usually where I get my best read on a player, and I have bupkes to go on for Crabtree. His college stats are hard to argue with, and by all accounts he's a phenomenal talent, but how much of that was the vaunted Mike Leach spread offense? Is he fast enough to be a superstar?My sense is that Crabtree will be very good. I don't know that he's going to make an instant impact like Harvin, but I still think he'll be a very good NFL WR.Re: Wells. He's a very talented back, and Tim Hightower doesn't concern me one iota. I see Chris Wells as a Jamal Lewis-like RB at the NFL level. He may have one Top-5 season in him, but he's more likely to be around Top-10 because of the average to below average receiving skills. One advantage he may have over a young Jamal Lewis is the Cardinals offense, which will put him in scoring position quite often.There's more Beanie Wells talk on here in the last page or three if you want to browse.

Watch the late game heroics vs. Texas. Phenomenal talent is an appropriate description. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking him at #1 this year in rookie drafts. High WR picks may be a little more risky then their RB counterparts...but this, to me, is kind of like comparing a Moss/Fitzgerald to Jamal Lewis. (IE: I agree with a Jamal Lewis type upside for Wells...and think Crabtree has Fitz type upside.)

Anyone care to counter? I have a hard time believing he has anywhere close to Fitz's upside, but I've been a huge Fitz booster from Day 1.

 

[Banger]

F&L,

Don't know if I've posted in this thread but I've followed it forever. I love your insight and ability to go against the grain with some of your calls. So when I see you so high on a guy like Harvin it makes me pause. One question I can't get out of my head, even if Harvin is great, even if he's better than advertised, what's his upside? Is he Michael Turner to LT? Peterson is the best in the game, with the best line and they are gonna use him and use him a lot. Realistically what is Harvin touch upside, the stat line you're envisioning?

Thanks. I also agree post about keeping some of Asst coach stuff out the thread. Keep up the good stuff.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L, Don't know if I've posted in this thread but I've followed it forever. I love your insight and ability to go against the grain with some of your calls. So when I see you so high on a guy like Harvin it makes me pause. One question I can't get out of my head, even if Harvin is great, even if he's better than advertised, what's his upside? Is he Michael Turner to LT? Peterson is the best in the game, with the best line and they are gonna use him and use him a lot. Realistically what is Harvin touch upside, the stat line you're envisioning? Thanks. I also agree post about keeping some of Asst coach stuff out the thread. Keep up the good stuff.

Thanks, Banger.I'm not seeing a situation anywhere close to LT/Turner, where one guy was the workhorse and the other guy was his caddy. Adrian Peterson is the running back, and Percy Harvin is playing a new position called the "Percy Position" -- part slot receiver, part halfback, part Wildcat QB, part gimmick-play master, and part returner. I've made it clear in the past that I'm not a fan of projections, and I never use them to arrive at an opinion on value -- especially for rookies. If I had to put a number on his rookie-year touches, I would say 45-50 catches and a similar amount of rushes is realistic ... if not on the low end (48 rushes = 3 per game over 16 games). I also think the comments from the coaching staff (i.e. today's from Chilly: "We're going to challenge him. It's not like we're going to spoon feed him.") are very telling. They're almost identical to quotes coming out of Titans camp last summer where Fisher & Heimerdinger told anyone that would listen that Chris Johnson was going to be a big part of the offense immediately. Just as telling as the comments was Harvin's position with the first-team during install today. He's going to be a major part of this offense. The coaching staff is telling everyone, but half of us are listening.

 

[millertyme1]

 

 

[Banger]

F&L, Don't know if I've posted in this thread but I've followed it forever. I love your insight and ability to go against the grain with some of your calls. So when I see you so high on a guy like Harvin it makes me pause. One question I can't get out of my head, even if Harvin is great, even if he's better than advertised, what's his upside? Is he Michael Turner to LT? Peterson is the best in the game, with the best line and they are gonna use him and use him a lot. Realistically what is Harvin touch upside, the stat line you're envisioning? Thanks. I also agree post about keeping some of Asst coach stuff out the thread. Keep up the good stuff.

Thanks, Banger.I'm not seeing a situation anywhere close to LT/Turner, where one guy was the workhorse and the other guy was his caddy. Adrian Peterson is the running back, and Percy Harvin is playing a new position called the "Percy Position" -- part slot receiver, part halfback, part Wildcat QB, part gimmick-play master, and part returner. I've made it clear in the past that I'm not a fan of projections, and I never use them to arrive at an opinion on value -- especially for rookies. If I had to put a number on his rookie-year touches, I would say 45-50 catches and a similar amount of rushes is realistic ... if not on the low end (48 rushes = 3 per game over 16 games). I also think the comments from the coaching staff (i.e. today's from Chilly: "We're going to challenge him. It's not like we're going to spoon feed him.") are very telling. They're almost identical to quotes coming out of Titans camp last summer where Fisher & Heimerdinger told anyone that would listen that Chris Johnson was going to be a big part of the offense immediately. Just as telling as the comments was Harvin's position with the first-team during install today. He's going to be a major part of this offense. The coaching staff is telling everyone, but half of us are listening.

Thanks. I didn't see the Harvin thread and posted in there after I saw it so I'll continue the debate in the other thread. Keep up the good stuff.

 

[EBF]

I think Harvin's upside is a mixture of Santana Moss and Wes Welker. He has the ability to get downfield like Moss, but he also offers good potential as a short yardage security blanket like Welker. He should catch a lot of passes and break a lot of big plays. I think the RB component of his game has been exaggerated. I doubt he'll carry the ball out of the backfield more than 3-4 times per game, but he should be a focal point of the offense.

 

[SSOG]

Watch the late game heroics vs. Texas. Phenomenal talent is an appropriate description. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking him at #1 this year in rookie drafts. High WR picks may be a little more risky then their RB counterparts...but this, to me, is kind of like comparing a Moss/Fitzgerald to Jamal Lewis. (IE: I agree with a Jamal Lewis type upside for Wells...and think Crabtree has Fitz type upside.)

I didn't watch enough Crabtree (when you live in an SEC region, it's hard to see much from non-SEC players), but the impression that I've gotten from all the hype surrounding him is that, while he's not quite a Calvin Johnson/Larry Fitzgerald level prospect, he's definitely a Roy Williams type prospect.Also, I don't think top WRs are more risky than their RB counterparts. If anything, I think the opposite might be the case. It seems to me that the only WRs being considered worthy of a top-2 dynasty pick in recent years have been Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Roy Williams. That's a pretty solid success rate so far. Meanwhile, the RB lists include names like Chris Perry, Rashard Mendenhall, and Marshawn Lynch (who while not a bust has certainly been a disappointment).

 

[brobe4]

I was wondering where you guys would rank Harvin in a non ppr rookie draft.

THX

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I think Harvin's upside is a mixture of Santana Moss and Wes Welker. He has the ability to get downfield like Moss, but he also offers good potential as a short yardage security blanket like Welker. He should catch a lot of passes and break a lot of big plays. I think the RB component of his game has been exaggerated. I doubt he'll carry the ball out of the backfield more than 3-4 times per game, but he should be a focal point of the offense.

Good points about Moss' downfield ability and Welker's slot security blanket skills. But I still haven't seen an NFL comp that I feel comfortable with. He seems much more powerful than Bush -- and more of a TD threat. Peter Warrick is no comparison at all. Steve Smith is much better at going up and getting the ball in traffic and a much more natural receiver ... but he still seems more similar to Smith than Santana Moss to me. He's a much more polished offensive player -- and physical more imposing -- than Devin Hester.None of those comps ring true to me, likely because the NFL hasn't seen a player like Percy Harvin since maybe Frank Gifford or Bobby Mitchell. All of which makes Harvin a unique talent. A souped-up 21st century version of Frank Gifford meets Bobby Mitchell? Nah, maybe Gale Sayers

 

[Fear & Loathing]

This is despite the fact that I'm really not a Moreno fan at all- I just think McDaniels has too much invested in him for him to fail. I also think that Moreno's skill set might give him a low ceiling (talent-wise- no Denver RB will ever have a low ceiling fantasy-wise, especially behind THAT line), but it also gives him a high floor.

You lost me here. I'm sky-high on Knowshon Moreno. He's like a more talented version of Matt Forte -- terrific all-around game, all the skills, good character, smart. Also, from the tape I've watched one of the best I've seen at gaining extra yardage at the end of a play. I've read Walter Payton comparisons in that regard. Even without the eye-popping 40-time, he's very athletic, physical, has a very good initial burst, great vision, follows his blockers well and seems to always get extra yardage on a play. He's a prototypical downhill runner. Unlike, say a LeSean McCoy, he doesn't go for the difficult play or the spectacular play, he simply moves the chains. He runs hungry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYWI-jovTOY&feature=fvw

 

[travdogg]

I kinda see Harvin as a rich man's Eric Metcalf, he's stronger and faster than Metcalf and will create more big plays, but that's likely the role I see for Harvin. I'm very interested to see him this preseason. I'm not on the hype train yet, but I'm reserving a seat. He may very well be a mold breaker.

As for Crabtree, I'm really not a fan at all. I think he may be the most overrated WR prospect in recent memory. He played in an extremely WR friendly system at Texas Tech and for all the talk about his talent, I haven't really seen it. He's not very big and he's not very fast. He has very good hands and seems like he can catch the ball in traffic. That doesn't sound bad, but its far from an elite talent. I see him being kind of a Houshmandzadeh type WR and San Fran doesn't have a Carson Palmer. Frankly, I'm not entirely sure I even prefer him to Josh Morgan short or long term.

Question: I recently got Mike Walker as a throw in on a deal. I really don't know much about him other than he's had some knee issues and seems to show up on many sleeper WR lists. With only Torry Holt being proven for the Jags, what kind of value does Walker have?

 

[EBF]

I kinda see Harvin as a rich man's Eric Metcalf, he's stronger and faster than Metcalf and will create more big plays, but that's likely the role I see for Harvin. I'm very interested to see him this preseason. I'm not on the hype train yet, but I'm reserving a seat. He may very well be a mold breaker.

As for Crabtree, I'm really not a fan at all. I think he may be the most overrated WR prospect in recent memory. He played in an extremely WR friendly system at Texas Tech and for all the talk about his talent, I haven't really seen it. He's not very big and he's not very fast. He has very good hands and seems like he can catch the ball in traffic. That doesn't sound bad, but its far from an elite talent. I see him being kind of a Houshmandzadeh type WR and San Fran doesn't have a Carson Palmer. Frankly, I'm not entirely sure I even prefer him to Josh Morgan short or long term.

Question: I recently got Mike Walker as a throw in on a deal. I really don't know much about him other than he's had some knee issues and seems to show up on many sleeper WR lists. With only Torry Holt being proven for the Jags, what kind of value does Walker have?

Don't confuse height with size. Crabtree doesn't have great height, but he has great size for a possession WR. At 6'1.3" and 215 pounds, he has a 28.1 BMI. That's huge for an NFL WR and it's right in line with several successful pro WRs of his type:Anquan Boldin - 28.9 - 6'0.5" 216

Jerricho Cotchery - 28.4 - 6'0.4" 214

Dwayne Bowe - 28.2 - 6'2.2" 221

Michael Crabtree - 28.1 - 6'1.3" 215

The problem with Crabtree is that people always compare him to Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson. He's not like those guys and he doesn't have to be. He's like Anquan Boldin and Dwayne Bowe. These WRs succeed because they're strong, agile, and coordinated. Great speed and great height are not prerequisites for this kind of WR.

I think he'll be a good pro player if he works hard. Cotchery is his downside. Boldin is his upside.

 

[kremenull]

I kinda see Harvin as a rich man's Eric Metcalf, he's stronger and faster than Metcalf and will create more big plays, but that's likely the role I see for Harvin. I'm very interested to see him this preseason. I'm not on the hype train yet, but I'm reserving a seat. He may very well be a mold breaker.

As for Crabtree, I'm really not a fan at all. I think he may be the most overrated WR prospect in recent memory. He played in an extremely WR friendly system at Texas Tech and for all the talk about his talent, I haven't really seen it. He's not very big and he's not very fast. He has very good hands and seems like he can catch the ball in traffic. That doesn't sound bad, but its far from an elite talent. I see him being kind of a Houshmandzadeh type WR and San Fran doesn't have a Carson Palmer. Frankly, I'm not entirely sure I even prefer him to Josh Morgan short or long term.

Question: I recently got Mike Walker as a throw in on a deal. I really don't know much about him other than he's had some knee issues and seems to show up on many sleeper WR lists. With only Torry Holt being proven for the Jags, what kind of value does Walker have?

Don't confuse height with size. Crabtree doesn't have great height, but he has great size for a possession WR. At 6'1.3" and 215 pounds, he has a 28.1 BMI. That's huge for an NFL WR and it's right in line with several successful pro WRs of his type:Anquan Boldin - 28.9 - 6'0.5" 216

Jerricho Cotchery - 28.4 - 6'0.4" 214

Dwayne Bowe - 28.2 - 6'2.2" 221

Michael Crabtree - 28.1 - 6'1.3" 215

The problem with Crabtree is that people always compare him to Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson. He's not like those guys and he doesn't have to be. He's like Anquan Boldin and Dwayne Bowe. These WRs succeed because they're strong, agile, and coordinated. Great speed and great height are not prerequisites for this kind of WR.

I think he'll be a good pro player if he works hard. Cotchery is his downside. Boldin is his upside.

Josh Morgan (6'0" 220lbs.).....I agree with Travdogg....or he agrees with me (

that I really don't know if Crabtree will be better than Morgan and they both seem like possession WR types, not so sure that either has Boldin-level RAC ability......At this point, Morgan is underrated and Crabtree is overrated, so my projection is they end up almost equivalents.....Crabtree may end up as a "poor-man's" Cris Carter...or like Carl Pickens if he keeps with the "diva" tendencies.....

Watch out for Maclin who's flying way under the radar with barely a peep about him. I still believe he is more talented than Crabtree......

 

[SSOG]

Good points about Moss' downfield ability and Welker's slot security blanket skills. But I still haven't seen an NFL comp that I feel comfortable with.

The upper body of Terrell Owens with the lower body of Santana Moss (not the actual physical lower body of Santana Moss, because that would be a top-heavy freak of nature, but Santana Moss's speed and nifty change-of-direction skills).

This is despite the fact that I'm really not a Moreno fan at all- I just think McDaniels has too much invested in him for him to fail. I also think that Moreno's skill set might give him a low ceiling (talent-wise- no Denver RB will ever have a low ceiling fantasy-wise, especially behind THAT line), but it also gives him a high floor.

You lost me here. I'm sky-high on Knowshon Moreno. He's like a more talented version of Matt Forte -- terrific all-around game, all the skills, good character, smart. Also, from the tape I've watched one of the best I've seen at gaining extra yardage at the end of a play. I've read Walter Payton comparisons in that regard. Even without the eye-popping 40-time, he's very athletic, physical, has a very good initial burst, great vision, follows his blockers well and seems to always get extra yardage on a play. He's a prototypical downhill runner. Unlike, say a LeSean McCoy, he doesn't go for the difficult play or the spectacular play, he simply moves the chains. He runs hungry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYWI-jovTOY&feature=fvw

I watched him in college, and I was never that impressed with either him OR Stafford. In terms of actual running skills, I think he's the 7th best 1st round RB taken in the last two years (Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, Jonathon Stewart, Matt Forte, and Beanie Wells all are, in my opinion, better runners than Moreno). He's a very patient runner, and I expect him to tear up in Denver because... well, let's be honest, Denver has the best running game scheme in the league, and the best offensive line in the league running it, and despite the loss of Shanny, Bobby Turner and Rick Dennison are still in town (there's a reason they were the only staff members retained). It's possible that his receiving skills are really as good as McDaniels seems to think they are (I never saw it in college, and I'm wary of expecting a player in the pros to develop a skillset he never showed in college). His blocking skills are definitely no joke, but you don't take an RB in the first round for his blocking skills. If it weren't for the Denver Factor, I'd expect him to put up numbers in line with Marshawn Lynch.I think a big part of the reason why I'm so down on Moreno is because I'm just not convinced he's that big of an upgrade over Torain/Hillis/Jordan/Buckhalter. Buckhalter and Jordan are both just as good blocking and receiving. Torain and Hillis are probably just as good rushing the ball. RB is the most fungible position, which means in order for Moreno to justify the pick, imo, he has to be LaDanian Tomlinson. And I think there's no way he's LaDanian Tomlinson.

 

[renesauz]

F&L - In your rankings, you have Beanie Wells rated higher than many. Mainly I am interested in how you think Beanie compares to Crabtree over the long haul. I'm in a 16 team PPR IDP dynasty league and just traded Ray Rice for pick 1.02. I have LT and Turner at RB (generally start 2) but only Edge as a backup and Roy Williams, A. Bryant, Coles, Holt, and Earl Bennett at WR (generally start 3) plus some ohers. I would pick Moreno if he falls to me. I would appreciate your general thoughts on Wells (and Brown) compared to Crabtree.Thanks.

I don't have a great read on Crabtree. I didn't see him play in college, and we haven't been able to glean anything from offseason workouts because he's been sidelined. OTAs and training camp are usually where I get my best read on a player, and I have bupkes to go on for Crabtree. His college stats are hard to argue with, and by all accounts he's a phenomenal talent, but how much of that was the vaunted Mike Leach spread offense? Is he fast enough to be a superstar?My sense is that Crabtree will be very good. I don't know that he's going to make an instant impact like Harvin, but I still think he'll be a very good NFL WR.Re: Wells. He's a very talented back, and Tim Hightower doesn't concern me one iota. I see Chris Wells as a Jamal Lewis-like RB at the NFL level. He may have one Top-5 season in him, but he's more likely to be around Top-10 because of the average to below average receiving skills. One advantage he may have over a young Jamal Lewis is the Cardinals offense, which will put him in scoring position quite often.There's more Beanie Wells talk on here in the last page or three if you want to browse.

Watch the late game heroics vs. Texas. Phenomenal talent is an appropriate description. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking him at #1 this year in rookie drafts. High WR picks may be a little more risky then their RB counterparts...but this, to me, is kind of like comparing a Moss/Fitzgerald to Jamal Lewis. (IE: I agree with a Jamal Lewis type upside for Wells...and think Crabtree has Fitz type upside.)

Anyone care to counter? I have a hard time believing he has anywhere close to Fitz's upside, but I've been a huge Fitz booster from Day 1.

I think he's more Boldin than Fitz. He does have the same body control a la Fitz. I don't think he's Fitz/Calvin but he's not far from it. I expect him to be a solid YAC guy a la Boldin/Marshall/Andre Johnson.

Wasn't really trying to compare his style to Fitz, but his potential production. IE: A future stud WR1.

 

[kremenull]

Good points about Moss' downfield ability and Welker's slot security blanket skills. But I still haven't seen an NFL comp that I feel comfortable with.

The upper body of Terrell Owens with the lower body of Santana Moss (not the actual physical lower body of Santana Moss, because that would be a top-heavy freak of nature, but Santana Moss's speed and nifty change-of-direction skills).

This is despite the fact that I'm really not a Moreno fan at all- I just think McDaniels has too much invested in him for him to fail. I also think that Moreno's skill set might give him a low ceiling (talent-wise- no Denver RB will ever have a low ceiling fantasy-wise, especially behind THAT line), but it also gives him a high floor.

You lost me here. I'm sky-high on Knowshon Moreno. He's like a more talented version of Matt Forte -- terrific all-around game, all the skills, good character, smart. Also, from the tape I've watched one of the best I've seen at gaining extra yardage at the end of a play. I've read Walter Payton comparisons in that regard. Even without the eye-popping 40-time, he's very athletic, physical, has a very good initial burst, great vision, follows his blockers well and seems to always get extra yardage on a play. He's a prototypical downhill runner. Unlike, say a LeSean McCoy, he doesn't go for the difficult play or the spectacular play, he simply moves the chains. He runs hungry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYWI-jovTOY&feature=fvw

I watched him in college, and I was never that impressed with either him OR Stafford. In terms of actual running skills, I think he's the 7th best 1st round RB taken in the last two years (Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, Jonathon Stewart, Matt Forte, and Beanie Wells all are, in my opinion, better runners than Moreno). He's a very patient runner, and I expect him to tear up in Denver because... well, let's be honest, Denver has the best running game scheme in the league, and the best offensive line in the league running it, and despite the loss of Shanny, Bobby Turner and Rick Dennison are still in town (there's a reason they were the only staff members retained). It's possible that his receiving skills are really as good as McDaniels seems to think they are (I never saw it in college, and I'm wary of expecting a player in the pros to develop a skillset he never showed in college). His blocking skills are definitely no joke, but you don't take an RB in the first round for his blocking skills. If it weren't for the Denver Factor, I'd expect him to put up numbers in line with Marshawn Lynch.I think a big part of the reason why I'm so down on Moreno is because I'm just not convinced he's that big of an upgrade over Torain/Hillis/Jordan/Buckhalter. Buckhalter and Jordan are both just as good blocking and receiving. Torain and Hillis are probably just as good rushing the ball. RB is the most fungible position, which means in order for Moreno to justify the pick, imo, he has to be LaDanian Tomlinson. And I think there's no way he's LaDanian Tomlinson.

I like your analysis here......and I have many of the same conclusions myself. Not quite as high on Moreno as most and definitely have Wells as a much better RB. I do believe Moreno will be successful, just not some Top 3-5 RB that many are projecting, and I guess, hoping. Looks more Marshawn Lynch-ish than anything close to an LT....and let's not even mention Walter Payton in the same sentence as a comparison.

 

[SSOG]

I like your analysis here......and I have many of the same conclusions myself. Not quite as high on Moreno as most and definitely have Wells as a much better RB. I do believe Moreno will be successful, just not some Top 3-5 RB that many are projecting, and I guess, hoping. Looks more Marshawn Lynch-ish than anything close to an LT....and let's not even mention Walter Payton in the same sentence as a comparison.

Eh, I don't like Moreno that much as an RB, but I still think he'll be a top 3-5 RB. This is Denver we're talking about. This is Ryan Clady, Ryan Harris, Ben Hamilton, and Chris Kuper (as well as Weigmann for at least one more season). This is the team that averaged 4.8 ypc last season. The team that took three guys who will probably combine for a dozen carries this season (Bell, Young, Hillis) and saw all three average over 5 ypc. I think Moreno will still be a stud because McDaniels has (imo stupidly) invested so much in him that he has no choice but to make Moreno a 3-down back. Hell, if he could, I think McDaniels would make Moreno a 5-down back. 300 carries in Denver will anyone a top-5 RB make.Edit: Actually, in terms of "average back in all-world situation", I think Knowshon Moreno is the new Joseph Addai. As a Broncos fan, I desperately hope he proves me wrong.