Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[SSOG]

what does your exit strategy say about chris johnson, SSOG? i don't think he's going to have nearly the shelf life of some other top RBs. But while he's elite, he's pretty damn spectacular. 2 more years? that's my thought right now.

You really think that Chris Johnson's career is going to be over at 26?I don't see anything about him that would lead to him having a shorter career than his peers, but even if you do think that, a short career for an elite RB means he's done at 28 instead of 30, and that's very rare without major career-threatening injuries.I'm expecting Chris Johnson to hang around as long as ADP and MJD do.

Non-PPR dynasty, would you drop Leinart (or Berrian?) for Malcolm Floyd? Not sure how to gauge Floyd's future value. I would think Floyd is the 3rd option in the passing game for SD, but then again, it seems Berrian is #3 in MIN too. I can keep players as long as I want.OffenseQB: Tony Romo (QB)WR: Andre Johnson (WR), Mike Sims-Walker (WR)RB: Adrian Peterson (RB), Steven Jackson (RB)TE: Fred Davis (TE)W/R: Ray Rice (RB)BN: Steve Smith (WR), DeAngelo Williams (RB), Ryan Grant (RB), Chris Cooley (TE), Donovan McNabb (QB), Pierre Thomas (RB), Bernard Berrian (WR), Matthew Stafford (QB), Matt Leinart (QB)KickersK: Mason Crosby (K)Defense/Special TeamsDEF: Dallas (DEF)

I'd be awfully tempted to drop Berrian for Floyd, but I think a better move might be trying to work a 2-for-1 deal so you can add Floyd with the empty roster space. Maybe try to package Romo/Grant or Romo/Thomas for an upgrade at QB.

 

[SSOG]

You use this word "consistency" as if it's a bad thing, but I think you're using the numbers incorrectly. Those ARE numbers we would expect from an elite WR - in my mind, what makes them elite is how consistently they score that PPG in the past and the probability that they reach/exceed those numbers in the future.You say that he has been a consistent WR8-10 level, but if you actually look at their seasons, Wayne has more top 5 finishes and more top 10 ifnishes than anyone on that list other than Chad. Bear in mind, I'm not defending Wayne as necessarily being above some of those other guys - in fact, I think there's a whole tier of "elite" dynasty WRs 10-12 good young guys who I consider in the top echelon as far as talent and would trust as my WR1. That said, I don't this this raw PPG tells the whole story. (This is just a cursory look - don't have time to go into more detail but I may if I have time this evening).Let's assume that generally their production/finish is close to where they are today. Counting this year, has been top 10 in four of the past 6 years, including three top 5 finishes. Even in a down year last year when Peyton and the offense got off to a slow start, he finished as WR14. Chad may be the most consistent at a high level on this list - outside of last year when his numbers fell off a cliff without Carson. He finished top 10 in 7 of the past 8 years (if as assume the current page) including three top 5 finishes. Steve Smith finished WR1 with that monster year in 2005, but only has 2 top 10 finishes other than that. He also missed an entire season for injury, plus a number of games here and there, and we all know how inconsistent he can be game to game (10/170/3 to 2/10/0 the next week).I love Roddy's upside especially as Ryan matures, but he hasn't cracked the top 5 WRs yet and isn't on pace to do so right now.Marshall is on pace for a WR20 finish, and in his two big previous seasons was around WR10. He hasn't had a top 5 season yet. Jennings finished top 5 last year, was out of the top 10 in his breakout year before, and is currently on pace for WR28 numbers. (Behind Driver who is on pace for WR12).Boldin finished as top 5 his rookie season, but hasn't been top 5 since. He has two top 10 finishes, but also finished outside of the top 15 four times including this year when he's on pace for WR38 finish. Of his seven seasons, he has only played 16 games twice.I think that sometimes Wayne doesn't get the elite respect because he's only "consistent" and perhaps not as flashy or exciting as some of these guys... but at the end of the year, he's consistently in the mix in the top 5-6 WRs. --And not that I ever really considered him elite, but one guy who has never gotten enough respect is Driver. In the 8 seasons from 2002 on, he has a top 5 finish, 2 top finishes, and 2 top 15 finishes (on pace for WR12 this year as I said). His worst year was 2003, and in 2007 his numbers were off but mostly because is TDs were down a lot. And yet every offseason he goes for nothing... I picked him up as a cheap RFA in my dynasty - after trading Housh as the main cog in a package for 1.04 - and he wasn't matched. I think I might have cost me a 5th rounder... Insane.

I'm not using consistency incorrectly. Reggie Wayne is a very reliable low-end WR1. The fact that he's so reliable means it's fine to rank him above what you expect him to produce. I expect him to average a WR8-type finish over the next 3-4 years, and I have him ranked as WR6 because of that wonderful, beautiful consistency.Wayne has more top finishes than the other guys because, hey guess what, he's been playing for a lot longer than the other guys. Terrell Owens has more top 5 finishes than any of those guys, but that doesn't mean we should start rating Terrell Owens higher than them going forward.I agree that Driver didn't get much respect, but I agree he's not worth very much right now. I traded the Austins for him earlier this season (Miles and Collie) because I needed somebody to start for my squad this year while my WRs developed. Of course, that only reminded me how quickly WRs wind up developing- MSW, Austin, and Hester have since become high-quality starters, Collie and Caldwell have become decent spot starts, and I wound up acquiring Vincent Jackson. The net result is that I've got a 34 year old WR who'll be sitting on my bench for the rest of his career. Whoops.This is why older veterans who are producing serviceable numbers are valued so low- they're cheap to acquire (I had just picked up the Austins off the street the week before I made the trade, so I basically got Driver for a pair of street free agents), and they're relatively fungible assets.

I was wondering if F&L (or anyone else) was targeting anyone in particular for next year. I don't mean a VJAX 2009 type (high price, hoping he becomes untouchable), but maybe more a VJAX 2008 type (moderate price, hoping he becomes high price). McFadden is probably a good example, given earlier. I think Felix Jones is probably also "cheap" given how frustrating he is to guys who drafted him last year. Maybe Bradshaw given the injury concerns.The WRs who made quick ascents up the rankings this year are MSW, SS North, Rice, and Hester. Which of these guys are for real and should be bought before the price is too high? Would be a good week to buy MSW.Rice is an interesting one. Are guys who are falling off the radar like Rice did 1 or 2 years ago particularly worth targeting? I'm thinking Josh Morgan, Donnie Avery, Chris Henry, Antonio Bryant, Chazeray Schilens.Maybe Keller at TE.

I think McFadden and Maroney are two RBs who will have more value next year than they do this year. Jon Stewart is a good guy to buy before he becomes a starter, because you won't be able to afford him afterwards. I wouldn't be shocked to see MSW becoming a very expensive asset next season. I'd be buying now on Hester and Rice, and selling now on Smith North. Keller's another strong buy- I had him as the #4 dynasty TE coming into this year, and I still believe in his talent. Lee Evans and Steve Smith are two WRs whose current value does not accurately reflect their talent, making them solid buys. Tashard Choice might be a quality gamble, depending on how cheaply you can acquire him.

I'd add Caldwell to that list, but he's not exactly a buy low at this point. As long as Palmer stays upright, Caldwell should develop into Housh Jr. with better skills IMO.Edit: I'd much rather pay more for Caldwell than less for Henry. From what I've seen, most of Henry's routes are just straight forward deep routes. He really doesn't do much else. And, Marvin Lewis is not exactly a Henry supporter. The only reason Henry is on the team is because of Mike Brown.

I think a lot of people are still sleeping on Caldwell. I don't think he'd be that expensive to acquire right now.

So I just acquired Steve Smith (CAR) in a keeper league based primarily on my need at WR and his place in F&L and SSOG's rankings. Can someone sell me on him as a top ten WR going forward? I know he's got all-world ability, but can his QB situation improve sufficiently before his productivity window closes?

Things change fast in the NFL, and Steve Smith has produced big-time numbers in small-time offenses in the past. Maybe Matt Moore is the next Tony Romo. Maybe Jake Delhomme pulls a Stella and gets his groove back. Maybe the Panthers bring in a free agent QB. Maybe the Panthers trade Smiff and start rebuilding. There are a ton of variables, and the only thing that's constant is talent.

 

[SSOG]

Well, how would you compare Calvin in Rice in a non-ppr dynasty? Rice's boost this year would be great, and I have the WRs to not miss Calvin (Fitz/AJ), but I worry that 3 years from now Rice will end up a mid-level or worse player as we see with some many young RBs that come on for a short while and then fade, and Calvin will be just 3 years further into his 10 year run of dominance.

My team was originally built around my RBs (Westbrook/MJD/Lynch/J. Stewart), but EBF really changed my mind just over a year ago and since then I've been completely overhauling my roster to try to build around my WRs, instead. I traded MJD for Randy Moss in 2007, I traded Javon Walker/Antonio Gates/#8 Rookie pick for Larry Fitzgerald last offseason, I traded Schaub/Garcon for VJax earlier this season. What convinced me was looking at the career arcs of top-flight WRs. If you get a guy who is both proven *AND* young, you can reasonably expect to roll him out in your starting lineup every single game for the next 8 years... which gives incredible roster flexibility. Every other WR on your roster becomes a developmental player/trading chip, since you don't need any of them for the next 8 years except to cover byes. If your starting WR trio was Fitz/Johnson/Johnson, then you could essentially spend every single draft pick for the next 8 years on RBs, TEs, and QBs trying to find some quality starters. Every MSW or Austin or Desean on your roster becomes immediately expendable, a trading chip to get yourself some RBs. Your window of contention is basically longer than the life expectancy of your dynasty league.If you build around your RBs, you'll see more short-term benefits, but every three years you're going to be retooling your fantasy core. You're going to have to spend a lot of assets keeping your strength strong. If you build around your WRs and QBs, you can just let everything else fall into place around them year after year.I'm really hoping that Hester and MSW can continue their jumps, because I'd love to be in your situation where I was stuck with three top-5 dynasty WRs under the age of 30.

Would Miles Austin be top 20-25, or is too early to have that discussion?

I was definitely wrong about Austin. I still don't know if I could fit him in my top 20 without sitting down and actually looking at some names, but there's no way I could keep him out of the top 25 at this point.

 

[Rushmore]

Just want to say that I love the dynasty work you do F&L (edit to add that I have really enjoyed SSOG's contributions in this thread as well). Wondering your thoughts on Vernon Davis. I would think he would be due for a bump w/ your next TE adjustments.

 

[EBF]

I was wondering if F&L (or anyone else) was targeting anyone in particular for next year. I don't mean a VJAX 2009 type (high price, hoping he becomes untouchable), but maybe more a VJAX 2008 type (moderate price, hoping he becomes high price).

I think Eddie Royal is a very good player and I would gladly buy low if I could find a frustrated customer. I can't explain the utter lack of production from him this season, but I think he's going to stick around the league and be a good starter for a long time. Someone mentioned Andre Caldwell. That's one of the guys I've been snatching up recently. I traded for him in two leagues a couple weeks ago and it didn't cost me much. In one league I gave up Mason/3rd for Caldwell/4th. In another I gave up Finley/2nd for Caldwell/3rd. IMO these are reasonable prices to pay for a promising young WR with starting potential. You might be able to find similar deals in your leagues.Brandon Tate is a guy I would be looking to get as a flyer or throw-in if I didn't already own him on almost all of my teams. He's somewhat of a longshot, but I felt he was probably the most talented of the WRs picked in rounds 2-7 this year. I like what I've seen of James Jones and I would try to pick him up if I could get a good price. I used to be torn between him and Nelson, but Jones just looks like the better athlete out there. His time could come next season if Driver moves on.

McFadden is probably a good example, given earlier. I think Felix Jones is probably also "cheap" given how frustrating he is to guys who drafted him last year. Maybe Bradshaw given the injury concerns.

It's no secret that I'm a McFadden hater. Since day one I've been telling everybody that he pretty much sucks. I can't say he has proven me wrong so far. Certainly the situation and injuries have held him back, but I think the simple explanation there is that he's not the player he was touted to be. He looks like the worst RB picked in the first round last year. Will his value rise? It can't get much lower. Will he become a reliable weekly starter? I personally doubt it. Felix is a good player. I don't know if he'll ever be a 250+ touch guy, but he has a nice upside if it happens. The RBs I would be targeting right now are the early picks whose value remains relatively low due to opportunity. For me that group includes Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy, Donald Brown, and Shonn Greene. 1-2 of those guys will probably pull a Ray Rice/Rashard Mendenhall in the near future. None of them will come cheap though so there's not much margin for error if you swing and miss. Stewart is probably the best talent of the bunch. Greene is probably the best value. Heck, Ryan Moats fits that description as well. He was an early pick and I liked him coming out of LA Tech. Now that he's finally getting an extended chance maybe he'll do something. You can pounce now while people still think he's a fluke (which he might be). Rudi Johnson, Pierre Thomas, and Domanick Davis had similar "out of nowhere" rises. Sometimes these waiver wire guys are the real deal.

Rice is an interesting one. Are guys who are falling off the radar like Rice did 1 or 2 years ago particularly worth targeting? I'm thinking Josh Morgan, Donnie Avery, Chris Henry, Antonio Bryant, Chazeray Schilens.Maybe Keller at TE.

Josh Morgan has always been overrated around here. He's okay, but nothing special. I'll be surprised if he becomes a consistently useful FF player. Avery is probably better suited to a complementary role and I think Henry is a bit of a one-trick pony (fairly useless when he's not going deep). Bryant is what he is: a good, but not great WR who produces when he gets targets. Schilens looked like a good possession WR this preseason. He could have some value if Oakland can find a QB.

 

[BradtheAg]

My team was originally built around my RBs (Westbrook/MJD/Lynch/J. Stewart), but EBF really changed my mind just over a year ago and since then I've been completely overhauling my roster to try to build around my WRs, instead. I traded MJD for Randy Moss in 2007, I traded Javon Walker/Antonio Gates/#8 Rookie pick for Larry Fitzgerald last offseason, I traded Schaub/Garcon for VJax earlier this season. What convinced me was looking at the career arcs of top-flight WRs. If you get a guy who is both proven *AND* young, you can reasonably expect to roll him out in your starting lineup every single game for the next 8 years... which gives incredible roster flexibility. Every other WR on your roster becomes a developmental player/trading chip, since you don't need any of them for the next 8 years except to cover byes. If your starting WR trio was Fitz/Johnson/Johnson, then you could essentially spend every single draft pick for the next 8 years on RBs, TEs, and QBs trying to find some quality starters. Every MSW or Austin or Desean on your roster becomes immediately expendable, a trading chip to get yourself some RBs. Your window of contention is basically longer than the life expectancy of your dynasty league.If you build around your RBs, you'll see more short-term benefits, but every three years you're going to be retooling your fantasy core. You're going to have to spend a lot of assets keeping your strength strong. If you build around your WRs and QBs, you can just let everything else fall into place around them year after year.

i was on the fence about giving ray rice to acquire fitz because i have always tried to build teams around RBs - until i read this post. this right here is brilliant. great work as always.

 

[SSOG]

Someone mentioned Andre Caldwell. That's one of the guys I've been snatching up recently. I traded for him in two leagues a couple weeks ago and it didn't cost me much. In one league I gave up Mason/3rd for Caldwell/4th. In another I gave up Finley/2nd for Caldwell/3rd. IMO these are reasonable prices to pay for a promising young WR with starting potential. You might be able to find similar deals in your leagues.Brandon Tate is a guy I would be looking to get as a flyer or throw-in if I didn't already own him on almost all of my teams. He's somewhat of a longshot, but I felt he was probably the most talented of the WRs picked in rounds 2-7 this year. I like what I've seen of James Jones and I would try to pick him up if I could get a good price. I used to be torn between him and Nelson, but Jones just looks like the better athlete out there. His time could come next season if Driver moves on.

I think EBF is secretly just picking names at random off the end of my roster. I betcha next he's going to be dropping Chaz Schilens as a good buy low.

Schilens looked like a good possession WR this preseason. He could have some value if Oakland can find a QB.

See?

 

[SSOG]

i was on the fence about giving ray rice to acquire fitz because i have always tried to build teams around RBs - until i read this post. this right here is brilliant. great work as always.

If I was in a startup dynasty league right now, I'd take Fitzgerald #1 overall, and the rest of the first round would be decidedly WR-heavy (Andre, Calvin, VJax, Roddy, Wayne, Colston). The only other guys I'd take in the first would be MJD, Peterson, SJax, CJ, or Brees.

 

[thatguy]

He made it. Deion and Darrell Green remained two of the fastest players in the league until late in their careers.

I get the point he is trying to make. What's not so clear is what the shelf life of the best CB of all time has to do with the shelf life of a RB - any RB, small, slow, fat, fast, or otherwise. These are two very different animals.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Thanx to F & L and SSOG.

It sounds like you are seeing some of the same things I am. If you just LOOK at him, you can see he isn't Frisman Jackson.

Great thread and discussion, BTW. I'll have to check this out more often.

Cross-Pollinization Dept. - Below is one of the latest posts from the Austin thread. Also in the thread, is a recent article from excellent Cowboys blogger Rafael Vela on how Austin has weaponized Romo (enabled him to get his mojo back), and a USA Today backgrounder which reported he has run a 10.6 hundred meters. I knew he was fast (and not just for a 6'3" 212 lb. dude, but for anybody), but didn't realize he was THAT fast.

I put him on the market in a few leagues, but am now leaning strongly towards keeping him, as I am becoming increasingly confident he could be a legit star (analogous to getting Colston on the WW his rookie season).

"Looking at Romo's historical production, since becoming the starter (about seventh game of 2006 season), he averages about 20 completed passes per game...

Combining that fact with some information upthread...

In the pie chart cited above, a hefty slice/serving, about a third of the passing game, has run through Austin in his first three starts. A third of 20 is close to seven receptions per game. Austin does in fact have 21 receptions in his first three starts. Keeping up that torrid pace would yield about 112 receptions over 16 games. But even going down to five per game would = 80 per year.

Historically, Austin scores a TD every five times he touches the ball (9 career TDs, 44 career receptions and one rush). It is very possible that some of those were due to the element of surprise and not facing top defenders when he was still a situational, role player. Probably that was less of a factor past few weeks, against ATL and SEA (we have to assume his 250 yards against KC got their attention). Actually, since becoming a starter, he has bettered that pace (5 TDs in 21 receptions - a TD about every four catches). Even using the more conservative 80 receptions a year, and the more conservative TD every five receptions, that would yield 16 TDs. Even lopping off 30-50% from there would still lead to 8-10 TDs.

Some kind of downtick is expected, as defenses in some cases start to roll coverages to him more aggressively. But the Cowboys have a pretty good team, and can make opposing defenses pay in lots of ways if they pay TOO much attention to Austin.

I think it is possible that by the end of the season it will be more common to think of Austin as a potential top 10-15 WR with upside than top 20-25.

* If you think about it, his level of develoment and receiving skills are incredibly/improbably refined given his background...

1 - Didn't play football until something like midway through his junior year as a prep (how many top NFL WRs in recent history could we say that about? He might be an athletic freak of nature and phenom, analogous to Akeem Olajuwan in the NBA, who I think had largely played soccer prior to starring at Houston for Phi Slamma Jamma ((with Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, Larry "Mr. Mean" Micheaux, Alvin Franklin, Benny Anders, et al))... former KC RB Christian Okoye was a track and field freak who was I think improbably the Nigerian national champion in the 100 yards AND shot put ((imagine if the Jamaican shot put champ beat Usain Bolt in the 100 meters!!!)), with no prior football experience, prior to going to Azusa Pacific JC in CA).

2 - Came from tiny Monmouth (he was the first prospect from there to ever make the NFL).

3 - No starter reps in DAL until about a quarter of the way through his third season.

Perhaps mitigating that is that he got discovered and mentored by DAL OC Jason Garret's dad, a Cowboys scout, through the good fortune of living and playing at a college just a few blocks away from his house. He also has an outstanding positional coach in Ray Sherman.

The scary thing is, Austin could get better with increased reps and experience."

 

[Boulder Toads]

i was on the fence about giving ray rice to acquire fitz because i have always tried to build teams around RBs - until i read this post. this right here is brilliant. great work as always.

If I was in a startup dynasty league right now, I'd take Fitzgerald #1 overall, and the rest of the first round would be decidedly WR-heavy (Andre, Calvin, VJax, Roddy, Wayne, Colston). The only other guys I'd take in the first would be MJD, Peterson, SJax, CJ, or Brees.

I've slowly come around to this thinking as well.This is one of the threads I read religiously here @ the Pool (thanks F&L and SSOG). I attribute a lot of what I've learned here to my keeper league success, staying ahead of the curve of my long-time redraft-FF buds. Sitting here with my mouse hovering over the 'Accept' button, wanted to see if others felt the same way I do.In a no-PPR, 12-team, start 2RB, 3WR keeper league ... I'm about to trade ADP away for Andre Johnson.I've dominated this league for the last few years, with a core of ADP/SJAX/WAYNE/WITTEN, but am going to lose all of these guys after this season (due to 3yr contract maximums). Because I'd lose ADP anyway, and with our trade deadline looming, I put ADP on the block and received the Andre offer. I'm cruising this year (7-1), and don't want to jeopardize my run at the title ... but I also would like to use my RB depth to upgrade my WR corps for the next 2.5 years. You'll see I've built some sick depth at RB in hopes to have a transition to life post-ADP.===========================================#1 - HOLD - (DON'T make the trade):RB: ADP, SJackson, RRice, KMorenoWR: Wayne, Jennings, PHarvin, TrashKeepers heading into next year (max 2 keeps at any position):RB: RRice, KMorenoWR: GJennings, PHarvin===========================================#2 - ACCEPT (I DO make the trade):RB: SJackson, RRice, KMorenoWR: Wayne, AJohnson, GJennings, HarvinKeepers heading into next year (max 2 keeps at any position):RB: RRice, KMorenoWR: AJohnson, GJennings===========================================Obviously, I like #2 better for the longer term (better keeper depth for the next 2.5 years).I also think I am OK with #2 for the short term to carry me through the playoffs. In a start 3WR league, that lineup is stout ... and my dropoff from swapping ADP to RRice isn't that steep.Thoughts?

 

[thatguy]

How long did Deion Sanders speed last?

You tell me. If you have a point to make, make it.

He made it. Deion and Darrell Green remained two of the fastest players in the league until late in their careers.

Not a fair comparison. CBs are not subjected to NEARLY the physical pounding that a running back is on each play. Specifically, Deion was famously averse to contact so yeah I'm sure it was a bit easier for him to maintain his speed later into his career. I don't know if Green had that same rep or not....

So who is a fair comparison? Marshall Faulk? I'm sure Chris Johnson owners would be fine with that.

Sure, that's fair. And when did the wheels start coming off for Faulk? His late 20's. Which is exactly when I said I expect CJ to decline - hence, I don't see any point being made that contradicts what I said, by you or the other poster.

 

[thecardiackid]

I'm interested in Britt's perceived value as well. He's looked good the few times I've been able to watch him play, but his QB situation is scary to say the least. With next year's draft appearing to be a bit weak at the skill positions, Britt might be a decent buy low candidate come draft day when picks are at their highest value. Britt hasn't been traded in any of my leagues, so I'm guessing that there's not too many offers coming the Britt owners way, or at least not too many good offers.

In a 1st yr. dynasty league, I went WR heavy (trading out of the 1st round) and was offered Fitz for Jennings and Britt. And I coudn't click the 'accept' button fast enough. Not that I don't think Britt is a good prospect, but I couldn't pass on that offer. The probverbial 'rub' w/ Britt is when is TN going to get a good QB, change coaches to enable a more passing friendly offense, and spread the ball around? Personally, I really like Britt's upside (which is why I drafted him), but the overall team situation is not pretty for a WR. Though, things can change quickly in the NFL. If you can get him @ a reasonable cost, and be willing to wait 2-3 years for dependable WR2 production, then now is the time to buy.

 

[benm3218]

You tell me. If you have a point to make, make it.

He made it. Deion and Darrell Green remained two of the fastest players in the league until late in their careers.

Not a fair comparison. CBs are not subjected to NEARLY the physical pounding that a running back is on each play. Specifically, Deion was famously averse to contact so yeah I'm sure it was a bit easier for him to maintain his speed later into his career. I don't know if Green had that same rep or not....

So who is a fair comparison? Marshall Faulk? I'm sure Chris Johnson owners would be fine with that.

Sure, that's fair. And when did the wheels start coming off for Faulk? His late 20's. Which is exactly when I said I expect CJ to decline - hence, I don't see any point being made that contradicts what I said, by you or the other poster.

Cj doesn't get hit a lot. He avoids tackles and never gets hit hard. Think about it. Have you seen him get rocked? It never happens.He may decline in his late 20's? There really is no way to say. I am just drawing a comparison between another player or two who was known for great speed and never really lost that speed. CJ may decline after 7 or 8 years in the league. But, I don't think he will just get slower over time like the drop off we saw with Willie Parker for example. CJ does not strike me at all as the type of player to lose speed the way "Fast" Willie did. It's just my opinion.

 

[Rockchild]

Cj doesn't get hit a lot. He avoids tackles and never gets hit hard. Think about it. Have you seen him get rocked? It never happens.He may decline in his late 20's? There really is no way to say. I am just drawing a comparison between another player or two who was known for great speed and never really lost that speed. CJ may decline after 7 or 8 years in the league. But, I don't think he will just get slower over time like the drop off we saw with Willie Parker for example. CJ does not strike me at all as the type of player to lose speed the way "Fast" Willie did. It's just my opinion.

To be fair, the reason Parker lost his speed was injuries.

 

[OnThInIcE911]

I was wondering what some of you thought of DHB as a prospect.

I understand that he is in almost the worst situation possible but he has all the measurables and is still a rookie.

I drafted him this year so am stuck with him for awhile and just wanted to know if any of you thinks he will ever become a decent ff Wr or will go down like Troy Williamson.

 

[Knobs]

I was wondering what some of you thought of DHB as a prospect.I understand that he is in almost the worst situation possible but he has all the measurables and is still a rookie. I drafted him this year so am stuck with him for awhile and just wanted to know if any of you thinks he will ever become a decent ff Wr or will go down like Troy Williamson.

The one thing he's lacking is the ability to catch the football. It's still entirely too early to judge his career, but I was never high on him to begin and I haven't seen anything that would cause me to change my mind.

 

[SSOG]

I was wondering what some of you thought of DHB as a prospect.I understand that he is in almost the worst situation possible but he has all the measurables and is still a rookie. I drafted him this year so am stuck with him for awhile and just wanted to know if any of you thinks he will ever become a decent ff Wr or will go down like Troy Williamson.

Doesn't catch the ball with his hands; don't want him on my roster. He's a poor man's Ted Ginn.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I was wondering what some of you thought of DHB as a prospect.I understand that he is in almost the worst situation possible but he has all the measurables and is still a rookie. I drafted him this year so am stuck with him for awhile and just wanted to know if any of you thinks he will ever become a decent ff Wr or will go down like Troy Williamson.

Doesn't catch the ball with his hands; don't want him on my roster. He's a poor man's Ted Ginn.

That pretty much sums up my thoughts as well. Somewhere between Troy Williamson and Ted Ginn.

 

[BespokeJort]

any thoughts on Alex Smith? I grabbed him off the WW last week and he seems like a high upside stash to me at this point--Still obviously has the pedigree, situation is much better than when he originally came to SF (having an emerging Vernon and Crabtree to throw to going forward doesn't hurt), looked decent the last couple weeks.

Is this just wishful thinking? What do you guys think of his chances of becoming the long-term starter?

 

[Rushmore]

any thoughts on Alex Smith? I grabbed him off the WW last week and he seems like a high upside stash to me at this point--Still obviously has the pedigree, situation is much better than when he originally came to SF (having an emerging Vernon and Crabtree to throw to going forward doesn't hurt), looked decent the last couple weeks.

Is this just wishful thinking? What do you guys think of his chances of becoming the long-term starter?

And while on the 49ers, I still wouldn't mind hearing some thoughts on him ^ .

 

[Corbu]

Guy who has Vernon Davis and Gates just offered me Gates for Felix Jones...

You can see my lineup below and I'm thinking about accepting it?

I guess this is more of a question of where Jones is at for dynasty.

Cheers.

 

[corpcow]

You use this word "consistency" as if it's a bad thing, but I think you're using the numbers incorrectly. Those ARE numbers we would expect from an elite WR - in my mind, what makes them elite is how consistently they score that PPG in the past and the probability that they reach/exceed those numbers in the future.You say that he has been a consistent WR8-10 level, but if you actually look at their seasons, Wayne has more top 5 finishes and more top 10 ifnishes than anyone on that list other than Chad.

I'm not using consistency incorrectly. Reggie Wayne is a very reliable low-end WR1. The fact that he's so reliable means it's fine to rank him above what you expect him to produce. I expect him to average a WR8-type finish over the next 3-4 years, and I have him ranked as WR6 because of that wonderful, beautiful consistency.Wayne has more top finishes than the other guys because, hey guess what, he's been playing for a lot longer than the other guys. Terrell Owens has more top 5 finishes than any of those guys, but that doesn't mean we should start rating Terrell Owens higher than them going forward.

I didn't say you were using the word incorrectly; just that you're implying that reliable means he doesn't put up "top 5" numbers. Those two points are independent, and using the numbers the way you did ignores the fact that what makes a top 5 finish is often being able to maintain that pace for the entire season. It's one thing to argue that Wayne is old and therefore not deserving of a high rank. I would disagree with that, personally - and I would say the TO example is bad because Wayne is in the prime of his career whereas TO is 5 yrs older. Think about how we ranked TO 5 yrs ago... hell, 2 yrs ago. In the past 2 yrs, V-Jax (who you guys have at WR4?! Seriously?? And you say people are overreacting to Wayne's numbers?) is averaging 11 PPG. Wayne is average 11.1, including a "down" year last year. In fact, if you go back to 2006-2007, he was averaging 11.8 PPG. This year, Wayne is averaging 15 PPG to Jackson's 13.7 PPG.Now, obviously, a dynasty ranking necessarily includes a "potential/upside" component and has to factor in dropoff, etc. And believe me, I'm one of the worst in terms of overvaluing youth. (Just look at any my dynasty rosters). My main argument is this - if you want to argue that Wayne is not top 5, you have to use something other than the numbers... because the numbers tell a story that he consistently puts up numbers that put him in/near the top 5 WRs, and his numbers this year are better than any year before.

 

[gorf]

Guy who has Vernon Davis and Gates just offered me Gates for Felix Jones... You can see my lineup below and I'm thinking about accepting it?I guess this is more of a question of where Jones is at for dynasty.Cheers.

i think you could get more than gates if you were looking to move f.jones. i can see why you'd consider it, given your rb depth, though. but then again, i'm not a big gates fan -- plus you already have keller, so it's not like it'd be a big upgrade.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

BTW, I just came to the site a few days ago, and this thread is the sole reason for doing so. Great work by F & L, SSOG, and EBF.

Two guys I wouldn't mind hearing your thoughts on are Jalene Parmele and James Hardy.

Parmele - I have a banged up roster and a bit of wiggle room, so I stashed Parmele a few weeks ago. It appears that Miami and Baltimore are at least adequate at identifying RB talent, and I was thinking that Parmele could be a decent flex once McGahee moves on. Rice is awesome, no doubt, but I don't ever see him being a 20 carry back and I believe there's room for a #2 back in that offense.

James Hardy - I liked him at Indiana, and hopefully he can show some life before the end of the season, or not, so I can decide which way to go before next year's draft. The guy seemed to catch everything in college. Is he still an unkown basically? I doubt that T.O. is resigned, so there will be a job opening. Question is, can Buffalo find a QB?

 

[gorf]

Awful? Not really. Reggie Bush isn't just a role player, he's a quality contributor. It's not like he's Mewelde Moore. Bush has averaged 80 yards and .5 TDs per game for his career. I'd gleefully take that sort of production out of my RB3. His numbers are down so far this year, almost entirely as a result of Bush averaging 2 catches per game below his career average.

Reggie Bush is a role player. You can site all the numbers you want from earlier in his career, but the Saints are no longer using him like they did earlier in his career. You can make all kinds of excuses for why his numbers are down this year, but the truth is he just isn't a big part of the offense anymore.

looking back on recent discussions of reggie bush. F&L is correct that they're not using him like they used to. his target numbers are trending downward, and he's been getting just a handul of rushing attempts for the last several games. any chance there's an injury we're not hearing about? i suppose given his history, that's a possibility. that said, i find it kind of hard to believe that he's going to continue to get as few opportunities as he has been an offense as good as new orleans, right? i own bush in a ppr dynasty and have been offered a 2011 1st rounder. (if i had to guess, i'd say it's a mid-1st, but that can be hard to predict.) if he's really done as a ppr contributor, i should take it...but if this is just a short-term dip... thoughts?

 

[PranksterJD]

Awful? Not really. Reggie Bush isn't just a role player, he's a quality contributor. It's not like he's Mewelde Moore. Bush has averaged 80 yards and .5 TDs per game for his career. I'd gleefully take that sort of production out of my RB3. His numbers are down so far this year, almost entirely as a result of Bush averaging 2 catches per game below his career average.

Reggie Bush is a role player. You can site all the numbers you want from earlier in his career, but the Saints are no longer using him like they did earlier in his career. You can make all kinds of excuses for why his numbers are down this year, but the truth is he just isn't a big part of the offense anymore.

looking back on recent discussions of reggie bush. F&L is correct that they're not using him like they used to. his target numbers are trending downward, and he's been getting just a handul of rushing attempts for the last several games. any chance there's an injury we're not hearing about? i suppose given his history, that's a possibility. that said, i find it kind of hard to believe that he's going to continue to get as few opportunities as he has been an offense as good as new orleans, right? i own bush in a ppr dynasty and have been offered a 2011 1st rounder. (if i had to guess, i'd say it's a mid-1st, but that can be hard to predict.) if he's really done as a ppr contributor, i should take it...but if this is just a short-term dip... thoughts?

Might be an injury, more likely just Thomas and Bell being more effective at what Payton wants from his running game.There's goodness here though. The past 2 games he finally seems to have learned to quit dancing ( mostly ). He's actually putting his head down and grabbing the 3 yards rather than trying to get 20 and getting hit for -1. If he can keep doing that while randomly adding in the 6 yard long-jump TDs then there's a chance that he can get back into Sean's good graces and play a bigger part in this offense. I don't see him back as a 5 catch/game guy though.

 

[n20]

Awful? Not really. Reggie Bush isn't just a role player, he's a quality contributor. It's not like he's Mewelde Moore. Bush has averaged 80 yards and .5 TDs per game for his career. I'd gleefully take that sort of production out of my RB3. His numbers are down so far this year, almost entirely as a result of Bush averaging 2 catches per game below his career average.

Reggie Bush is a role player. You can site all the numbers you want from earlier in his career, but the Saints are no longer using him like they did earlier in his career. You can make all kinds of excuses for why his numbers are down this year, but the truth is he just isn't a big part of the offense anymore.

looking back on recent discussions of reggie bush. F&L is correct that they're not using him like they used to. his target numbers are trending downward, and he's been getting just a handul of rushing attempts for the last several games. any chance there's an injury we're not hearing about? i suppose given his history, that's a possibility. that said, i find it kind of hard to believe that he's going to continue to get as few opportunities as he has been an offense as good as new orleans, right? i own bush in a ppr dynasty and have been offered a 2011 1st rounder. (if i had to guess, i'd say it's a mid-1st, but that can be hard to predict.) if he's really done as a ppr contributor, i should take it...but if this is just a short-term dip... thoughts?

I'm not sure what kind of RB depth you have but I would take the pick. This season Bush seems to be getting his points from TD's instead of catches and TD's are impossible to hang your hat on every week. If you think he's going to return to 5-6 catches a game, hold... if not, take the pick.

 

[valhallan]

Awful? Not really. Reggie Bush isn't just a role player, he's a quality contributor. It's not like he's Mewelde Moore. Bush has averaged 80 yards and .5 TDs per game for his career. I'd gleefully take that sort of production out of my RB3. His numbers are down so far this year, almost entirely as a result of Bush averaging 2 catches per game below his career average.

Reggie Bush is a role player. You can site all the numbers you want from earlier in his career, but the Saints are no longer using him like they did earlier in his career. You can make all kinds of excuses for why his numbers are down this year, but the truth is he just isn't a big part of the offense anymore.

looking back on recent discussions of reggie bush. F&L is correct that they're not using him like they used to. his target numbers are trending downward, and he's been getting just a handul of rushing attempts for the last several games. any chance there's an injury we're not hearing about? i suppose given his history, that's a possibility. that said, i find it kind of hard to believe that he's going to continue to get as few opportunities as he has been an offense as good as new orleans, right? i own bush in a ppr dynasty and have been offered a 2011 1st rounder. (if i had to guess, i'd say it's a mid-1st, but that can be hard to predict.) if he's really done as a ppr contributor, i should take it...but if this is just a short-term dip... thoughts?

I think he's far too young to mail in already (24). Yes, he's not shown much promise running the ball and yes, he's barely contributing now, but an injury to Bell or Thomas could easily ratchet up Bush's workload for this season. Further, perhaps sitting on the sidelines watching Bell and Thomas is good for him. Did you see Reggie actually lowered his shoulder into a defender on Monday? Twice?? And he had a really nice 10+ yard run in which he looked like a genuine running back (moving forward, creating creases with quick shifts), but it was called back due to holding. I'm not saying he's turned the corner, but we know he has NFL-caliber talent and it's a matter of using those gifts wisely. He wouldn't be the first running back to start off looking terrible and subsequently figuring things out to become a very solid back (see Jones, Thomas). I don't know that I'd actually wager on the side of him becoming a quality back, but I do know that holding risk is very low right now and the upside at age 24 is high enough to keep him stashed away. If he's your RB2 or RB3, find someone else to fill that spot and let Reggie be your end-of-the-bench prospect.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

2011? You should expect a bit more for having to wait until 2011. As you said, you never know what can happen, so that pick might end up being late. If it was the 2010 draft, then yeah, I'd accept. Ask him for his 2011 2nd round pick as well.

 

[JRoss]

Speaking of building your team around WRs, what are the thoughts on giving up Forte for Colston (non-PPR)?

Thanks,

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Big trade in the "FB Guys Dynasty Thread League" today involving both Wayne and V-Jax. Surprisingly, I was the one giving up V-Jax and acquiring Wayne.

Particulars:

Fear & Loathing acquires Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, and Trent Edwards.

Magnus_CA acquires Vincent Jackson, Lee Evans, Matthew Stafford, and 2011 first-round pick.

*Note: this league's playoffs run through the NFL playoffs, giving players on contenders considerably more value.

From my point of view I hated to give up V-Jax, but I thought Wayne made up for it in the playoff format. I was strong at WR with Fitz & V-Jax, but Lee Evans had been killing me all year as my WR3. I'm in pretty good shape to make the playoffs, but I had to solidify WR3 to get there. In Austin, I have a streaking WR3 who should have plenty of value into the future as well as the present. With Dallas in better shape for the playoffs, that's an added bonus.

I still like Evans long-term, but he makes a lot more sense for a non-contender. Sometimes you have to sacrifice the future to get what you've targeted for the present.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What do you think happens to Collie after AG comes back?

From Rotoworld:

Colts coach Jim Caldwell revealed Wednesday that Anthony Gonzalez is getting a second opinion on his lingering knee injury.

Beat writer Phil B. Wilson calls it "not a good sign" and doesn't expect Gonzalez to return "anytime soon." The second opinion will presumably come from Dr. James Andrews, and is being pursued to find out whether Gonzalez needs surgery on his sprained torn PCL. Strongly consider dropping Gonzalez if there are potential impact players on your waiver wire.

Source: Indianapolis Star

As I suggested the other day, Gonzalez may not be coming back any time soon.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

Big trade in the "FB Guys Dynasty Thread League" today involving both Wayne and V-Jax. Surprisingly, I was the one giving up V-Jax and acquiring Wayne.Particulars:Fear & Loathing acquires Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, and Trent Edwards.Magnus_CA acquires Vincent Jackson, Lee Evans, Matthew Stafford, and 2011 first-round pick.*Note: this league's playoffs run through the NFL playoffs, giving players on contenders considerably more value.From my point of view I hated to give up V-Jax, but I thought Wayne made up for it in the playoff format. I was strong at WR with Fitz & V-Jax, but Lee Evans had been killing me all year as my WR3. I'm in pretty good shape to make the playoffs, but I had to solidify WR3 to get there. In Austin, I have a streaking WR3 who should have plenty of value into the future as well as the present. With Dallas in better shape for the playoffs, that's an added bonus. I still like Evans long-term, but he makes a lot more sense for a non-contender. Sometimes you have to sacrifice the future to get what you've targeted for the present.

Should be an intersting trade to look back at in a few years. We'll see if Stafford and Miles are for real, whether Buffalo gets a QB for Evans, and if V-Jax becomes a certifiable stud. For the record, I kind of like his side better, but not by much. I think the 1st round pick tipped the scales in his favor as far as value, but we'll see.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Mid-season update on the "FB Guys Dynasty Thread League."

1. FUBAR, 6-2 | 1055.08

2. Twin Killing, 6-2 | 869.02

3. Fear & Loathing, 5-3 | 1068.30

4. Neo, 5-3 | 970.50

5. mcintyre1, 5-3 | 946.14

6. benm3218, 5-3 | 921.34

7. ChuckLiddell, 3-5 | 1036.42

8. Tennessee Jedi, 3-5 | 1022.52

9. gorf, 3-5 | 919.10

10. Shader, 3-5 | 881.82

11. kremenull, 2-6 | 867.60

12. Frank Constanza's Lawyer, 2-6 | 862.84

Poor ChuckLiddell & Tennessee Jedi keep going up against the high points scorers for the week. Twin Killing, on the other hand, has three or four more wins than he deserves.

 

[Colts Win]

What do you think happens to Collie after AG comes back?

From Rotoworld:

Colts coach Jim Caldwell revealed Wednesday that Anthony Gonzalez is getting a second opinion on his lingering knee injury.

Beat writer Phil B. Wilson calls it "not a good sign" and doesn't expect Gonzalez to return "anytime soon." The second opinion will presumably come from Dr. James Andrews, and is being pursued to find out whether Gonzalez needs surgery on his sprained torn PCL. Strongly consider dropping Gonzalez if there are potential impact players on your waiver wire.

Source: Indianapolis Star

As I suggested the other day, Gonzalez may not be coming back any time soon.

Thanks for the heads up.

 

[Blackjacks]

I never posts my trades in this thread for my dynasty league but I just made a big trade and I need alittle feedback

Remember that this is a keeper league. I will leave the year they are signed into behind their name.

Thanks for any feedback

I received: DeAngelo Williams 1st year, James Stewart 2nd year, Jerome Harrison 1st year and Matthew Stafford 1st year

for

Ray Rice 2nd year, Pierre Thomas 2nd year, Clinton Portis last year (3rd) and Antonio Bryant last year (3rd)

I'm under the belief that DeAngelo is by far and away the best talent in this trade and if he ever got hurt Stewart would probably put up better #'s due to more touches. I also really like Stafford. He has great talent and plays on a bad team with a star at wr.

I struggled to trade R. Rice. I think he might be very good but I prefer DeAngelo's talent in the long term. I might have traded Pierre alittle low but I don't know if I can ever trust him. Without even talking about how they fling the ball around down in New Orleans there is also alot of competition in the backfield.

Portis and Bryant meant nothing to me.

It was also nice to get Williams and Stafford in the first year of a three year deal.

Any feedback would be aprreciated.

F&L....love reading your updates.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Obviously a big fan of the blog F&L, but I have to question the ranking of Moreno (#8) so highly.

I know your point has been that Buckhalter has gotten the ball in space, and thus has had more big play opportunities. SSOG (a Bronco fan) despite paying a hefty price for Moreno himself, contends that's not always the case.

The statistics between the two aren't pretty for Moreno. A game by game breakdown shows Buckhalter faring better in YPC in every game except the Baltimore game. The average is now 6.0/carry for Buckhalter and 3.9/carry for Moreno.

Buckhalter has also had a better receiving game every week both have played.

My point is not that Buckhalter is better. The point is that its bad for Moreno that its even close. Buckhalter has been a respectable player throughout his career, but never was considered special by any means.

SSOG has been selling the Broncos offensive line as the reason to buy on Moreno. I would buy that if I thought Moreno would get enough touches to make that payoff down the road. I just don't see Moreno as good enough to ever keep the Buckhalters of the world on the bench, and after Buckhalter is gone, there will be another guy just like him.

Right now there are 45 RBs in the NFL with more than 50 carries. Moreno's average (3.9) puts him at #30. All while running behind that Bronco line.

I would honestly rather have two guys you have rated much lower than him more than Moreno. Give me Pierre Thomas or Rashard Mendenhall. While PT is in a time share too, he's on the most dynamic offense in the league. He may not be consistent enough with Mike Bell there, but I think over the next few years, there will be plenty of games like Monday nights 100 yard/2 TD performance. Mendenhall meanwhile, has seized the #1 job in Pittsburgh. While the oline in Pitt may not be what it once was, the offense looks like it will remain good for years to come. Mendenhall should be putting away some of those games for them, and should hold on to the goal line carries there to boot.

I understand that I am going up against one of your guys on this one. (Both F&L and SSOG). I also admittedly haven't seen every Broncos game. But I have seen them play quite a bit, and just don't see special talent in this rookie. I would say every RB ahead of him (ADP, MJD, CJ, SJax, Rice, Gore, DWill) are all special talents. I'd also say Ronnie Brown (#9) qualifies as a special talent too. Every one of those other players had produced explosive plays by this point in their careers, most of them had plenty. Moreno's biggest play to date is a 27 yard reception in the flat, where he went straight ahead 25 yards untouched. No other play in his first 120 touches has gone for more than 17 yards.

I think Moreno will be a fine player, and fantasy relevant throughout his career. He does have NFL ability. IMO he just doesn't belong with the elite RBs.

 

[Magnus_CA]

Mid-season update on the "FB Guys Dynasty Thread League."

1. FUBAR, 6-2 | 1055.08

2. Twin Killing, 6-2 | 869.02

3. Fear & Loathing, 5-3 | 1068.30

4. Neo, 5-3 | 970.50

5. mcintyre1, 5-3 | 946.14

6. benm3218, 5-3 | 921.34

7. ChuckLiddell, 3-5 | 1036.42

8. Tennessee Jedi, 3-5 | 1022.52

9. gorf, 3-5 | 919.10

10. Shader, 3-5 | 881.82

11. kremenull, 2-6 | 867.60

12. Frank Constanza's Lawyer, 2-6 | 862.84

Poor ChuckLiddell & Tennessee Jedi keep going up against the high points scorers for the week. Twin Killing, on the other hand, has three or four more wins than he deserves.

And by Tennessee Jedi he means Magnus_CA. You couldn't be more right about Twin Killing. That dude should be playing the lotto every day if he hasn't won it already.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

I've never been a Moreno fan. Moreno's performance against a terrible Michigan State run D was one the worst performances I've seen from a big name RB. As the previous poster stated, Denver has a great line and Moreno is simply not performing. It's still early, so I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

I own both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in a dynasty league and I've been offered Santonio Holmes straight up for Maclin. Going back and forth on whether to do the trade or not. I wonder how people view Maclin's potential and whether trading him now could be a bit premature. Holmes would be one of my starting WRs, where as Maclin is a match up player right now because I'm already starting DeSean every week. If I didn't own DeSean, I probably wouldn't consider trading Macin yet. Thoughts?

 

[gorf]

I own both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in a dynasty league and I've been offered Santonio Holmes straight up for Maclin. Going back and forth on whether to do the trade or not. I wonder how people view Maclin's potential and whether trading him now could be a bit premature. Holmes would be one of my starting WRs, where as Maclin is a match up player right now because I'm already starting DeSean every week. If I didn't own DeSean, I probably wouldn't consider trading Macin yet. Thoughts?

i'd hold on to santonio. he's the #1 WR on what has become a pass-heavy team. here's another way to look at it -- is it possible maclin surpasses santonio's dynasty value? sure. is it likely? probably not, at least imo.

 

[falcoatl]

SSOG, how high are you on Brandon Tate? Is he worth rostering over guys like Mike Thomas, Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens and James Jones?

 

[Rushmore]

I own both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in a dynasty league and I've been offered Santonio Holmes straight up for Maclin. Going back and forth on whether to do the trade or not. I wonder how people view Maclin's potential and whether trading him now could be a bit premature. Holmes would be one of my starting WRs, where as Maclin is a match up player right now because I'm already starting DeSean every week. If I didn't own DeSean, I probably wouldn't consider trading Macin yet. Thoughts?

I'd take that deal for sure. Not only do I like Holmes better anyway, but you are also diversifying in the passing attacks of both teams-two that both have promising attacks now and for the foreseable future.

 

[samNhenry]

First thanks to all the guys that spend so much time analyzing and then taking the time to share that analysis.

My team was originally built around my RBs (Westbrook/MJD/Lynch/J. Stewart), but EBF really changed my mind just over a year ago and since then I've been completely overhauling my roster to try to build around my WRs, instead. I traded MJD for Randy Moss in 2007, I traded Javon Walker/Antonio Gates/#8 Rookie pick for Larry Fitzgerald last offseason, I traded Schaub/Garcon for VJax earlier this season. What convinced me was looking at the career arcs of top-flight WRs. If you get a guy who is both proven *AND* young, you can reasonably expect to roll him out in your starting lineup every single game for the next 8 years... which gives incredible roster flexibility. Every other WR on your roster becomes a developmental player/trading chip, since you don't need any of them for the next 8 years except to cover byes. If your starting WR trio was Fitz/Johnson/Johnson, then you could essentially spend every single draft pick for the next 8 years on RBs, TEs, and QBs trying to find some quality starters. Every MSW or Austin or Desean on your roster becomes immediately expendable, a trading chip to get yourself some RBs. Your window of contention is basically longer than the life expectancy of your dynasty league.

If you build around your RBs, you'll see more short-term benefits, but every three years you're going to be retooling your fantasy core. You're going to have to spend a lot of assets keeping your strength strong. If you build around your WRs and QBs, you can just let everything else fall into place around them year after year.

I'm really hoping that Hester and MSW can continue their jumps, because I'd love to be in your situation where I was stuck with three top-5 dynasty WRs under the age of 30.

At this point I SSOG almost as much as I F & L. This information above is just such a great thing and you lob stuff like that out there regularly. Three years ago I started rebuilding my first dynasty team, my one and only true fantasy love. I won the first year with Jones/Benson Bears combo, LJ, MJD off waivers, TO, Ocho, and Driver. Bulger was my primary QB. I didn't understand dynasty and my team aged fast after that. I started trading two years ago and I probably gave up a chance at another championship after gutting my roster. However I had one goal in mind: Get young at every position so I could contend year after year for a long time.

While executing the strategy I came to the same conclusion SSOG states so eloquently above. Young stud WR's are more valuable than RB's in dynasty because their shelf life is so long. Same conclusion with QB's since it's a 2 QB league (OP but the championship has been won at least twice on the strength of two elite QB's and not much else) and good QB's have as long of a shelf life as good WR's.

I refined that strategy more when I started reading F & L's stuff. Obviously he shaped my thoughts on how to value players in dynasty. His idea's about getting the most explosive players available really changed my approach. I liked to mix in some explosion with some steady production. Hines Ward was a favorite of mine for a while because of this. But when I read F & L's stuff I realized that if you built an entire roster around explosive players than it doesn't matter if they bust once in a while because some other player (or two, or three) will pick them up.

I passed on Crabtree and Wells to take Harvin w/ second pick and Stafford w/ the fourth. Thought Harvin (influenced heavily by F &L, he gave me CJ after all) would end up being the more explosive WR. Took Stafford in an indirect nod/extension to the strategy SSOG mentions. I felt like I had WR set and didn't know if Crabtree would be special enough(not a unilateral guarantee like Megatron had) to pass on a potential long term QB starter. Felt like Stafford might be a starter I could pair with Ryan for a potentially dominant set of QB's (2 QB's remember and QB's get eaten up faster than you can imagine). I passed on Wells because I managed to trade for SJax (Ocho and a later first) and thought I had enough at RB.

I really like the strategy you guys talk about. Really great stuff. I am still developing my ability to pick winners but relying on F & L and posters like SSOG has helped me build what is a pretty strong team at the moment. Big big thanks guys. Best information I have found anywhere, bar none. I don't know how you find time (in SSOG case I guess, since F & L is a writer) to generate all this material.

BTW the results are showing. My team is now 6-2 and the highest scoring team in the league by 76 points. The league is very competitive ( Thriftyrocker from this board is one of the guys in my league. He's very good. Based on the moves some guys have been making this year I know there are other lurkers in here). I thought I would have to wait another year to contend but my team is coming on now. Thanks again guys!

My roster is:

QB's (1 starters + OP): Ryan, Stafford, V Young, Leinert

RB's (2/OP): CJ, MJD, SJax, D Brown, T Choice

WR's (3/OP): Fitz, VJax, Hester, Harvin, Nicks, Britt, James Jones, M Wallace

TE (1/OP): V Davis, Finley

Also sitting on three firsts, an mid/early ~4 and two end of round picks in 2010.

If I was in a startup dynasty league right now, I'd take Fitzgerald #1 overall, and the rest of the first round would be decidedly WR-heavy (Andre, Calvin, VJax, Roddy, Wayne, Colston). The only other guys I'd take in the first would be MJD, Peterson, SJax, CJ, or Brees.

This post just put my SSOG love over the top. I would love to hear more on peoples team building philosophies and general in season strategies.

Right now I am thinking that another RB or a QB would solidify my title run a little but the cost is probably going to be pretty high (QB's are hard to come by in our league, four guys have the majority).

 

[pq9090]

What do you guys think of Cadillac Williams going forward? I know he's pretty low on the latest RB rankings from F & L so I'm a bit reluctant to do this trade I was offered: Cadillac for a high second rounder. I picked up the second rounder from the guy in last place so there's a good chance it will be pick 2.1 (13th overall). I'm in desperate need of a RB this week in a big game against the division leader.

I'm pretty thin at RB overall and I could use a RB3. Is cadillac a viable flex option going into next year? Here are my RBs:

Frank Gore

Adrian Peterson (bye)

Chester Taylor (bye)

Jerious Norwood

Justin Fargas (bye)

Sammy Morris

I've already traded away my first round draft pick for next year so that second rounder is pretty important for me. I also don't have my own second round pick.

 

[Magnus_CA]

Why not just see if the other guy will hold out until after Sunday?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Why not just see if the other guy will hold out until after Sunday?

Seems a legit point. I really don't like the Buccaneers chances for a decent offensive outing on Sunday though. Freeman in his first start vs a pretty pissed off Packer D. The Packers run D is much improved so far this year: wk 1 vs Forte 25/55/0wk 2 vs Benson 29/141/0wk 3 vs SJax 27/117/0wk 4 vs ADP 25/55/1wk 5 vs K Smith 15/61/0wk 6 vs J Lewis 15/47/0wk 7 vs ADP 25/97/1They have faced some quality backs already this year, and have done a decent job. I just don't see Caddy going off this weekend. 15/50/0 with 3/20 receiving?

 

[SSOG]

Guy who has Vernon Davis and Gates just offered me Gates for Felix Jones... You can see my lineup below and I'm thinking about accepting it?I guess this is more of a question of where Jones is at for dynasty.Cheers.

I'd definitely do that trade. As I said a few pages ago, the emergence of Choice has me questioning whether Jones will ever get enough carries to be fantasy relevant.

I didn't say you were using the word incorrectly; just that you're implying that reliable means he doesn't put up "top 5" numbers. Those two points are independent, and using the numbers the way you did ignores the fact that what makes a top 5 finish is often being able to maintain that pace for the entire season. It's one thing to argue that Wayne is old and therefore not deserving of a high rank. I would disagree with that, personally - and I would say the TO example is bad because Wayne is in the prime of his career whereas TO is 5 yrs older. Think about how we ranked TO 5 yrs ago... hell, 2 yrs ago. In the past 2 yrs, V-Jax (who you guys have at WR4?! Seriously?? And you say people are overreacting to Wayne's numbers?) is averaging 11 PPG. Wayne is average 11.1, including a "down" year last year. In fact, if you go back to 2006-2007, he was averaging 11.8 PPG. This year, Wayne is averaging 15 PPG to Jackson's 13.7 PPG.Now, obviously, a dynasty ranking necessarily includes a "potential/upside" component and has to factor in dropoff, etc. And believe me, I'm one of the worst in terms of overvaluing youth. (Just look at any my dynasty rosters). My main argument is this - if you want to argue that Wayne is not top 5, you have to use something other than the numbers... because the numbers tell a story that he consistently puts up numbers that put him in/near the top 5 WRs, and his numbers this year are better than any year before.

I'm not saying that Wayne isn't deserving of a high ranking. When last I checked, "#6 WR and worthy of a first round pick in a dynasty startup" is a pretty darn high ranking. It's not like I've got him outside of my top 20, here. He's an stud, a legit dynasty WR1 for 4 more years.Also, you're kind of making my point for me with TO. Look where he was ranked 2 years ago. Did he justify that ranking in the slightest? Absolutely not! He had a borderline top-10 finish, and now he's fallen off the face of the planet. His dynasty value is absolutely shot. In retrospect, TO should not have been ranked among the top 20 dynasty receivers two years ago. And I actually had him a lot lower than F&L- he was my "must sell" of the year the offseason before last. I managed to dump him off for Antonio Gates and I was over the moon about it. In three years, that's where Reggie Wayne is going to be. He's going to be awesome for those next three years, but I'm expecting Vincent Jackson to be comparably awesome (maybe very slightly less awesome), and at the end of that window Vincent Jackson will still be a top5-10 dynasty WR, and Reggie Wayne will be outside of the top 20.As for Terrell Owens' ranking 5 years ago... Terrell Owens was ranked 5 years ago right near where Reggie Wayne is ranked today. Probably a little bit higher, but Terrell Owens outproduces Reggie Wayne by a CRUSHING margin (Wayne's best season was 211 points, a total Owens has topped four times, would have topped twice more if not due to injuries, and came within 10 points of in a 7th season). Terrell Owens 5 years ago was probably WR2 or WR3. Since Reggie Wayne doesn't produce anywhere *NEAR* what Terrell Owens produces, WR6 seems perfectly fair and reasonable.I'm not ranking VJax 4th because I'm overreacting to his numbers. His numbers are wholly ancillary to how he's achieving them. I'm ranking Vincent Jackson 4th because he's one of the top 5 deep threats in the league *AND* he's one of the top 5 red zone targets in the league (his per-target numbers on deep passes match Desean Jackson's, and his per-target numbers in the red zone match Larry Fitzgerald's). I'm ranking VJax 4th because he's, in my opinion, the 4th most talented receiver in the NFL. I'm ranking VJax 4th because, other than Randy Moss, I don't think there's another receiver in the entire league capable of putting up 16+ TDs. I'm ranking VJax 4th because I would not be surprised if two years from now he was the consensus best receiver in the entire NFL and viewed as a 28-year old Randy Moss clone. Do I think it's going to happen? If I did, I'd rank him first... but I certainly wouldn't look at it as a surprising development.Also, I think I very successfully argued that Wayne is not top 5 using numbers. You know, since his numbers are virtually identical to Roddy White, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, etc- all of whom are younger than him, more talented than him, and with more room to grow still. I still rank Wayne ahead of all of those guys except for Roddy because of the high floor, but like I've been saying... it's not like Wayne is just crushing his peers and producing at such a high level that it's absurd to even question whether any younger WRs are passing him yet. If it makes any difference, if Wayne's career plays out like I expect/predict, then we'll see a steady decline in his rankings from here on out. Next offseason, I doubt I'll move him from WR6. The offseason after that, he'll be in the WR10-12 range. The offseason after that, WR 14-16. The offseason after that, outside of the top 20. He's a depreciating asset. At the same time, I predict Vincent Jackson will remain somewhere from WR1 to WR8 for the entirety of that span. Which is why I have Jackson rated higher- he'll produce comparable numbers, but in 2 and a half years he won't be WR16, and in 3 and a half years I won't be frantically trying to unload him for whatever I can possibly get before the rest of the world realizes he's shot.

Speaking of building your team around WRs, what are the thoughts on giving up Forte for Colston (non-PPR)?Thanks,

I'd do it, but I don't like Forte. In my opinion, he's Kevin Smith with more hype. In fact, in my league, Forte is currently RB18 (136 points) while Smith is RB19 (134 points).

Obviously a big fan of the blog F&L, but I have to question the ranking of Moreno (#8) so highly. I know your point has been that Buckhalter has gotten the ball in space, and thus has had more big play opportunities. SSOG (a Bronco fan) despite paying a hefty price for Moreno himself, contends that's not always the case. The statistics between the two aren't pretty for Moreno. A game by game breakdown shows Buckhalter faring better in YPC in every game except the Baltimore game. The average is now 6.0/carry for Buckhalter and 3.9/carry for Moreno. Buckhalter has also had a better receiving game every week both have played. My point is not that Buckhalter is better. The point is that its bad for Moreno that its even close. Buckhalter has been a respectable player throughout his career, but never was considered special by any means. SSOG has been selling the Broncos offensive line as the reason to buy on Moreno. I would buy that if I thought Moreno would get enough touches to make that payoff down the road. I just don't see Moreno as good enough to ever keep the Buckhalters of the world on the bench, and after Buckhalter is gone, there will be another guy just like him. Right now there are 45 RBs in the NFL with more than 50 carries. Moreno's average (3.9) puts him at #30. All while running behind that Bronco line. I would honestly rather have two guys you have rated much lower than him more than Moreno. Give me Pierre Thomas or Rashard Mendenhall. While PT is in a time share too, he's on the most dynamic offense in the league. He may not be consistent enough with Mike Bell there, but I think over the next few years, there will be plenty of games like Monday nights 100 yard/2 TD performance. Mendenhall meanwhile, has seized the #1 job in Pittsburgh. While the oline in Pitt may not be what it once was, the offense looks like it will remain good for years to come. Mendenhall should be putting away some of those games for them, and should hold on to the goal line carries there to boot. I understand that I am going up against one of your guys on this one. (Both F&L and SSOG). I also admittedly haven't seen every Broncos game. But I have seen them play quite a bit, and just don't see special talent in this rookie. I would say every RB ahead of him (ADP, MJD, CJ, SJax, Rice, Gore, DWill) are all special talents. I'd also say Ronnie Brown (#9) qualifies as a special talent too. Every one of those other players had produced explosive plays by this point in their careers, most of them had plenty. Moreno's biggest play to date is a 27 yard reception in the flat, where he went straight ahead 25 yards untouched. No other play in his first 120 touches has gone for more than 17 yards. I think Moreno will be a fine player, and fantasy relevant throughout his career. He does have NFL ability. IMO he just doesn't belong with the elite RBs.

While Moreno hasn't looked special so far, neither had Mendenhall to this point. Moreno can't hold off Buckhalter, Mendenhall couldn't beat out FWP- both are equally damning, imo. Mendenhall's had some big games, but people are overlooking who they came against. There's San Diego, ranked 27th in rushing yards allowed (and actually worse than that, because they had Jamal Williams at the beginning of the season). There's Detroit, ranked 21st in yards allowed and 30th in ypa allowed. There's Cleveland, ranked an abysmal 31st in yards allowed AND in ypa allowed. The only decent run defense he's faced is Minnesota, and he only put up 69 yards rushing (with no TD) against them. Mendenhall's looked great against the dregs of the NFL. I hear next week Pittsburgh is playing Vanderbilt- I bet Mendenhall manages to put up 120 yards and a pair of scores against them, too. Moreno hasn't been a special player so far... but neither has Mendenhall. Moreno hasn't been able to hold off Correll Buckhalter, but CBuck was actually a big signing this past offseason- Pierre Thomas has been fighting tooth and nail for his job with a guy who was a street free agent just a couple of weeks before the season kicked off.In the end, that's what it gets down to. Is Moreno a special dynasty player? F&L thinks so, but I don't. I still have Moreno ranked relatively high, though, because there's a massive dearth of special RBs today. I think there are 9 special talents in the league right now- MJD, ADP, SJax, CJ3, Rice, Gore, Williams, Stewart, and Ronnie. Which means, no matter how you slice it, you've got to put an unspecial RB in the top 10, and the back half of the top 20 is just filthy with good-but-not-great RBs. There's a definite down-cycle on quality RBs right now. So when I have Moreno in my top 12, it's not because I think he's some amazing stud, it's just because... who else am I going to put above him?Regarding your concern of him holding off the Buckhalters of the future... I don't think it'll be any greater problem than Mendenhall holding off the future FWPs. The Broncos have invested a LOT of money and reputation in Moreno. He'll be given every chance to succeed. In the end, short of special talent, that might be the most valuable trait for a dynasty RB- every opportunity to succeed.

 

[footballguy#1]

Sounds like both (F&L and SSOG) of you have moved Wayne to #5 WR and the end of the first round in a startup dynasty. Which RB's would you take over him? ADP, MJD, CJ are givens. What about Jackson? Gore? Rice? D Williams? Turner? Stewart? Forte?

Thanks