1) I find it interesting that your main argument for Henderson is his yards per target, when Meachem is averaging 15 yards per target in his career. You also just admitted Henderson is what he is - a great deep threat. He's in no danger of seeing increased targets.
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2) I think it's likely Meachem doesn't carve out a larger role this year, but that's more a function of the way Payton has chosen to run the team. He's not making any changes while they're winning, from Reggie Bush's role right on down to keeping Carney over Hartley. Next year, it's very possible the offense evolves to have Meachem playing Boldin to Colston's Fitz and Henderson's Breaston. Yes yes, he's no Boldin (though he was compared to him pre-draft) - I'm simply trying to lay out what I think their roles could be. I see Meachem having a good chance at being a move the chains type with great YAC potential, while Colston draws coverage and remains the redzone threat with his glue hands, and Henderson stretches the field in 3-WR sets like he always has.
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3) So wait, now you're saying Meachem is effective but maybe he doesn't deserve credit for it? If you're not sure how much should be attributed to Brees, then how can you be so sure Henderson's play is a function of his own talent? And don't tell me because he was doing it before Brees - he's had a grand total of one playing season sans Brees, and Aaron Brooks, for all his faults, was no slouch on the deep ball.
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4) Oh I certainly batted an eye. However, there's not much to say about Britt right now that hasn't already been said. When he's been thrown to, he's looked the part - problem is he's not being thrown to anymore. I like him, but then again I also drafted him so I should probably like him more than someone who didn't. I see no reason to argue for him right now - next season will give us more knowledge about his prospects.
1) Robert Meachem has 39 targets for his entire career. 39. For his entire career. In two and a half years. Henderson has more targets so far this year (in 8 games!) than Meachem has for his entire career. Henderson had more targets last year than Meachem has for his entire career. Henderson had more targets in 2007 than Meachem had for his entire career. Henderson had more targets in 2006 than Meachem had in his entire career. Henderson had more targets in 2005 than Meachem has in his entire two and a half year career. Can you see why I might consider Henderson's per-target numbers to be a little bit more valid and indicative than Meachem's? Heck, the opposing defenses are still always borderline shocked whenever Brees actually throws it in Meachem's direction. Also, who says Henderson is in no danger of getting an increased role? His targets this year are up 40% over his targets last year. I don't think he'll ever get a massive volume of targets, but as I said, when you're the best role player in the entire league you are never in any danger of having your role decreased. Meachem is likewise in no danger of having his role decreased, but that's mostly a function of it being impossible for him to have any smaller of a role than the one he currently has.2) Colston, Meachem, and Henderson are going to become Fitz, Boldin, and Breaston? Aside from the fact that Colston's a different player from Fitz, Meachem is no Boldin, and Henderson has a completely different skillset than Breaston, that's pretty feasible
. More seriously, there aren't enough targets in New Orleans for that trio to turn out like the Arizona trio. The Cards are on pace for 600 passing attempts this season. Last year, they had 630. Two years ago, they had 590. This year, the Saints are on pace for 530. Yes, the Saints did have massive pass attempt numbers last year and the year before, but that was when the defense was a seive and the team had a losing record. As long as this is a winning team with a solid defense, there aren't enough balls to support 3 fantasy receivers... and as I said, I think Henderson is too good in his role for him to be the guy the Saints cut out.
3) Yes, Meachem has been effective the 19 times he has been targeted this season. You know who else has been super-effective on a miniscule number of targets this year? Brian Hartline. Jarrett Dillard. And in the case of both of those WRs, there's no question of their QB making them look better than they truly are. I can't be sure that Henderson's ability is the result of his talent rather than Brees, but it doesn't matter, because HENDERSON ALREADY HAS A ROLE IN THE OFFENSE. As I said, either Meachem stays and plays 3rd fiddle with Brees, or he goes elsewhere and plays 2nd fiddle with someone else. Henderson, on the other hand, is locked in to the 2nd fiddle role with Drew Brees.
4) If you think I'm out of line on Meachem and Britt, then who did I put above them that you'd but them over? Gonzo, who is my odds-on pick for the #2 WR role in Indy? James Jones, who is my odds-on pick for the #2 role in GB? Maclin, who's looked great and already has the #2 role in Philly? Jacoby, who's looked fantastic and is really taking a step forward this year? Kellen Winslow, who is the highest paid TE in the league and an absolute target monster? Malcolm Floyd, who is my odds-on pick for the #2 WR in San Diego? Greg Olsen, who's coming off a 3-TD game and was a chic pick as a top 5 dynasty TE before the season? I could easily move Meachem ahead of Collie- those two are a tossup for me, with Collie representing a higher ceiling and Meachem representing a higher floor. Other than that, who am I ranking too high? It's not that I'm saying I wouldn't want either Meachem or Britt, it's that I'm saying that I wouldn't want either over the guys I have above them.
I have a question /comment about steve smith's(car) ranking. How could he be at #11 when I offer him straight up in my dynasty PPR for anyone ranked in the top 27 I'm laughed at? I feel there is no other WR who's trade value is more in the toilet and I can't believe he's at #11 when I can't give the dude anyway in a 12 team 30 roster league. Two late rookie 2nd RD picks was the best offer I got so far, IHMO #11 is crazy.
Smiff can be WR11 when his value is in the toilet because the dynasty rankings try to estimate ACTUAL value, not PERCEIVED value. The fact that there's such a huge delta between his ACTUAL value and his PERCEIVED value simply means that he's an unbelievably good buy-low target. If the delta between his perceived and actual value was as big in the opposite direction, then he'd be the perfect SELL HIGH candidate (example: the OTHER Steve Smith).
F&L,
I have James Jones. Jacoby Jones is available, and you just moved him up (because Daniels went down?).
I was thinking of dropping Mike Thomas for Jacoby.
Maybe you could explain where you think each of the Jones' stands for next year and beyond?
At this point are they basically a wash until we see more?
Cheers.
I've gone back and forth on James Jones and Jordy Nelson, but I really think that James is pulling away right now, and I think he's the odds-on favorite to win the #2 job in Green Bay once Driver bows out. I have him solidly above Jacoby Jones, who at this point is a much more speculative type player. There's a lot more uncertainty surrounding whether Jacoby is going to get the #2 job in Houston any time soon... and the #2 in Green Bay is inherently more valuable than the #2 in Houston, anyway. I like both WRs, but I like James Jones better.
What's the opinion on Antonio Gates from a dynasty perspective? On the one hand he's had foot issues the past two seasons, but OTOH is only 29 and has a gunslinger for a QB. In my scoring format, I was surprised to see he's had just 1 game where he put up great TE1 numbers, week 4 (24 points). He's had 4-8 points in all other weeks, which seems pretty low consistency by Gates standards. Is this a good buy low opportunity or a sign of things to come?
Consistency from a TE is usually a pipe dream. TEs don't score enough points over a full season to expect consistent production on a week-to-week basis. Earlier in this thread I was comparing how many times TEs scored back-to-back 10+ point games last season, and outside of Witten/Daniels/Cooley, there was no such thing as a "consistent" performer.Besides, consistency (perceived or actual) is an incredibly overrated commodity in fantasy football. I don't care how the points were scored, I just care that they were scored. If a WR gets you 10 points every single week, then he's never really helping you or hurting you. You won't lose a single game because of him, but you won't win a single game because of him, either. If another WR is getting you 20 points half the time and 0 points half the time, then he's going to single-handedly do a lot to help you win half the time... and single-handedly do a lot to help you lose the other half of the time. Neither is really any more preferable than the other, provided you have a long enough leash to be willing to eat the bad games from the inconsistent performer so that he doesn't wind up on your bench for the good games.
With the impending return of Darren McFadden this weekend, anyone have any thoughts on his value in a dynasty PPR league? He's been offered to me along with a 2010 2nd rounder for my 2010 1st rounder. To me, it seems like a no-brainer to accept, but 1st round picks in this league are more valuable because it's a start 2-QB league with only 12 owners, so rookie QBs are way more valuable than in other leagues. Plus, I'm finding it hard to pull the trigger on acquiring anyone in the Raiders offense. Is McFadden's talent and upside worth the chance or is he a Raider for the next few years (under contract until 2013???) which kills his value.
Late first? Sure. You won't see anyone anywhere near McFadden's talent level at the end of the first round next year. Early first? debatable, but it depends on how your WR corps looks. There are some really nice looking WRs coming out next year.