MAC_32
Footballguy
They've also watched a lot more of Foster than you and I. He's an average back that has a strong tendency to make bad mistakes at critical times. I don't see how anyone could be optimistic about his future.
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Dynasty Rankings (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
They're fanatical. Many of them are the same fans that wanted Jeff Fisher dismissed immediately if not sooner when he donned a Peyton Manning jersey as a practical joke when his team was sitting at 0-6. They can't find perspective, so why would I expect them to have perspective on Foster? I've researched Foster plenty and I've watching his highlights. He had a Murphy's Law senior season at Tennessee where everything that could go wrong did. He had to play through an injury, and he had a couple of ill-timed fumbles. I get it. I just don't think a guy who fumbles heavily in one season is due to fumble heavily the next. Foster was also considered a second-round talent before his senior season.
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Lash
Footballguy
just to add, this fumbilitis from Foster is not a new skill, he fumbled all four years in college<--- UT fan
he was especially adept at fumbling within either the Vol or the opponent's 10yd lines
amazingly his hands are much stickier when catching passes than when just carrying the ball, so he can have a role but he is ultimately a pedestrian back, nothing more IMO
Lash
Footballguy
hehe, awesome ... was posting my last post while Mac and Fear were discussing me LOLyes, we are fanatical but Foster would get run down by DLineman (lacks speed), always dinged up (injury prone), and fumbled in MORE than just his senior year - hint: check out the Bowl game he lost early in his career - just gutwrenching goalline fumbles (fumble prone)
now saying that he was a fine college back and he served us well because Erik Ainge LOVED to check down to his RB on 3rd and 16 (fanatical) and Lane Kiffin/Ed Orgeron may burn in hellfire for all eternity (fanatical)
by the way F&R, love your blog, been on board for this entire thread as a lurker, will try to help out more via posts
p.s. i loved the Fisher Manning-jersey stunt and don't know of anybody that didn't
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Fair enough. Thanks for the history and kind words, Lash.Personally, I go more by what a player does at the NFL level. Foster was easily the best back on the Texans this season, producing two of the team's three best running performances despite playing heavily in just three games. His leg-drive against the Pats in Week 17 was very impressive, and he's a good fit for the Texans' one cut and go scheme.hehe, awesome ... was posting my last post while Mac and Fear were discussing me LOL
yes, we are fanatical but Foster would get run down by DLineman (lacks speed), always dinged up (injury prone), and fumbled in MORE than just his senior year - hint: check out the Bowl game he lost early in his career - just gutwrenching goalline fumbles (fumble prone)
now saying that he was a fine college back and he served us well because Erik Ainge LOVED to check down to his RB on 3rd and 16 (fanatical) and Lane Kiffin/Ed Orgeron may burn in hellfire for all eternity (fanatical)
by the way F&R, love your blog, been on board for this entire thread as a lurker, will try to help out more via posts
p.s. i loved the Fisher Manning-jersey stunt and don't know of anybody that didn't
Furthermore, his 4.76 YPC was nearly a full yard more than Ryan Moats' average and a yard and a half more than Snacks Slaton's average. Foster also averaged 11.6 yards per reception on eight catches, showing very good hands and after-the-catch ability. He fumbled once in 62 touches while Slaton fumbled seven times in 175 touches and Moats fumbled three times in 114 touches.
If he stinks, that doesn't say much for ol' Slaton running behind the same line.
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Someone just said that the word "special" is thrown out too often. I agree wholeheartedly. When you're calling a guy like Doucet a "special talent", it really diminishes the impact when someone else goes and calls someone like Frank Gore a "special talent". Because Gore really is a "special talent". He's been doing everything SJax has been doing for the past 4 years, he just hasn't gotten the recognition for it. Both guys were ABSURD in 2006 (3rd and 5th in overall VBD). SJax had slightly more yards and a lot more TDs, but Gore averaged a full yard more per carry and did all he did on 60 fewer touches. Both were equally impressive, IMO. Since then, both guys have been carrying absolutely putrid offenses. Both are incredible runners (Gore's actually a better runner, but, to borrow from EBF, he's much more sneaky-good than freaky-good). Both are incredible receivers (Gore averages 3.1 r/g for his career, while SJax averages 3.3 r/g). Both guys really carry their offenses. I definitely see Gore as a fantasy difference maker for at least 3 more seasons, and given how fast the RB rankings change (compare the preseason RB rankings to the postseason RB rankings if you don't believe me), there are only a handful of other guys who I am as confident will give me 3 more stud seasons. Easily, easily, easily a top 10 dynasty RB. I'd take MJD, Peterson, Johnson, and Rice over him without question. After those four, I'd put Gore, SJax, and JStew in a bucket and shake it up. Those three are the next tier, imo.
Norwood isn't Leon Washington South. Leon Washington is Jerious Norwood North. And from now on, any time a back puts up unreal rate stats and his team brings in someone else rather than letting him take the lead job, that back will be said to have been "Norwooded". An example of the usage: "The Jets traded up to get Shonn Greene? Man, Washington just got Norwooded hard."I think if Norwood was a starter, the Falcons coaching staff(s) would have recognized it and started him rather then spending big to land Turner. Same thing with Mewelde Moore- if he was starter material, why did the Vikings never start him? I think Norwood's FA is going to look a lot like MeMo's, in that he'll wind up somewhere as quality depth/3rd down RB.
lyon812
Footballguy
Having watched Forsett all year, I think people sell him short in terms of talent. No pun intended. He’s solidly built and has the vision and agility to do very well. He has surprising power one-on-one, and great acceleration and cutting ability. He was also highly productive in college despite only starting 17 games (he was Lynch’s backup), and had the second-highest workload in the Pac-10 in 2007. He doesn’t have excellent long speed, and will get caught from behind. You’ll see that a lot on his video page http://www.nfl.com/videos/search-results?quickSearch=forsett. Still, is it really that horrible if he gains 25 yards instead of 40? He had 6 20+ yard runs in 114 carries, comparable to upper tier backs. He had an 18.4% DVOA, which was 4th in the league (by comparison, Julius Jones was by comparison, his backfield mate was -3.8%.).
The biggest worry is the change in coaching staff. Knapp ran a zone-blocking scheme that was similar to what Forsett excelled in at Cal. Bates will bring unknown changes. He aired it out a lot with Cutler in Denver. At USC he ran a more balanced attack--which is good, because the ‘Hawks don’t have an air attack worth featuring. Their offense is so frequently disappointing that it's hard to imagine what he'll be able to do with it.
Forsett’s a very unknown quantity. I think holding him is fine, but I think people should be seeing what others will offer for him as well. People are likely hyped on finding the next Johnson/Rice/Charles/Harrison--the diminutive-but-explosive backs that “came from nowhere”. And he isn’t explosive. =p If they’re willing to give you good value for someone who has severe question marks, I think you take it.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Didn't the Hawks bring in ZBS savant Alex Gibbs?Good to see some more first hand support for Forsett! I've been high on this kid since his Sr year at Cal and have posted as much for the reasons you cited, but staff after staff continues to not give him a chance because he doesn't look like a RB, even if he continues to impress on the field and in the stat column.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Since all of you like to nitpick at verbage instead of focus on an issue I'll retract my term 'special talent' in describing Early, he's a better than average talent with special potential that is still being developed, unlike Breaston who is already developed. My definition of special talent clearly differs from yours.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Why do two-ish games of carries carry more weight than four years of work? The four years of work paint a more accurate picture of what to expect, not the most recent two games, not just with Foster but with anyone. Seems like a case of selected bias to me.Fair enough. Thanks for the history and kind words, Lash.Personally, I go more by what a player does at the NFL level. Foster was easily the best back on the Texans this season, producing two of the team's three best running performances despite playing heavily in just three games. His leg-drive against the Pats in Week 17 was very impressive, and he's a good fit for the Texans' one cut and go scheme.hehe, awesome ... was posting my last post while Mac and Fear were discussing me LOL
yes, we are fanatical but Foster would get run down by DLineman (lacks speed), always dinged up (injury prone), and fumbled in MORE than just his senior year - hint: check out the Bowl game he lost early in his career - just gutwrenching goalline fumbles (fumble prone)
now saying that he was a fine college back and he served us well because Erik Ainge LOVED to check down to his RB on 3rd and 16 (fanatical) and Lane Kiffin/Ed Orgeron may burn in hellfire for all eternity (fanatical)
by the way F&R, love your blog, been on board for this entire thread as a lurker, will try to help out more via posts
p.s. i loved the Fisher Manning-jersey stunt and don't know of anybody that didn't
Furthermore, his 4.76 YPC was nearly a full yard more than Ryan Moats' average and a yard and a half more than Snacks Slaton's average. Foster also averaged 11.6 yards per reception on eight catches, showing very good hands and after-the-catch ability. He fumbled once in 62 touches while Slaton fumbled seven times in 175 receptions and Moats fumbled three times in 114 touches.
If he stinks, that doesn't say much for ol' Slaton running behind the same line.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Seriously? What did the three or four years of college work say about Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, JaMarcus Russell, and Ryan Leaf?Why would you even try to make that point?
MAC_32
Footballguy
Bush has chronic knee problems that will prevent him from ever getting enough touches to show if he's elite or not, those knee problems were not known until after he got into the league. Chalk that up to injuries happen.McFadden's been questioned by many since before the draft, the questions surrounded skinny legs, a poor frame, one that couldn't withstand the pounding of an NFL back. So far he's shown those doubters even more right than they thought when they questioned him. Then again, it could just be Raider syndrome, just ask Woodson and Moss. Maybe he just needs to relocate and be used properly.JaMarcus Russell = Charles Rogers, if you don't care to be there then you won't be for long because it doesn't matter what physical gifts you possess if you don't want to put the work in to make it in the league.If Ryan Leaf played another position other than QB he may have been able to overcome his mental shortcomings, but since QB is so mental he melted down and flamed out. Can't think of any other case quite like his.All that said, I have no idea what any of this has to do with Foster. It almost seems like you're just pissed off that I'm questioning your opinion.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Are we even having the same conversation here? You're the one who brought up "selection bias" because I said a short time in the NFL can tell me more about a player than four years of college.Russell was the No. 1 overall draft pick, Bush and Leaf were drafted at No. 2 overall, and McFadden was drafted at No. 4 overall because people were grading them on what they did in college and how that would translate to the pros. You can do all the hindsight you want, but they were all considered studs by the peole who are paid to know better, mostly based on college production. You can keep up with training camp reports and watch a couple of preseason games and still a have more accurate appraisal of a rookie than a guy who simply watches a player through four years of college football.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Ah, I see where I took the wrong route, my bad.I think every piece of evidence needs to be examined independently, there is no perfect system, if there was we wouldn't have threads like this one filled with differing opinions and stimulating discussion.Reggie Bush is a great example, he may be one of the best talents the league has ever seen, but it's all for naught because he developed a chronic knee condition, and no one will ever know if he could have lived up to the hype, or not. That knee problem is miles more important than anything else in his profile, that's also not the case with everyone, where one piece of information is that much more important than anything else.I just think you're writing off Foster's issues in college because it doesn't support your argument, that's why I made the selective bias comment. He had lots of problems in college, and what do you know, what happens in the very first touch he gets when he's given the feature load, he fumbles. Expectations were tempered thereafter and he played well, when there wasn't pressure, which is par for the course for Foster.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Reggie Bush was never going to be one of the best talents the league has ever seen because he just wasn't a great runner. If you're not willing to run forward, you're certainly not going to be an all-time great.So there was no pressure on Foster in Week 17 in the second-half comeback against the Pats when the Texans' playoff hopes were on the line? I think you're ignoring facts to suit your argument.
MAC_32
Footballguy
No, that's certainly an argument for Foster, he just needs to repeat that several more times to make me a believer. Something a guy like Forsett has been doing for most of his career, which is why I believe in him a lot more than Foster. I'm more willing to bet on a fringe guy that's consistently good than one that's consistently inconsistent.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Things like this can land you some pretty good players late in drafts. They don't always pan out, but some do and hitting some later picks always helps. Some players just have a bad last season in college and some of them do have legit reasons for them.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Amidst everything else, I missed this.He was? I'm seriously asking because this is something I usually try to take advantage of too (i.e. Early Doucet) and don't remember reading this anywhere before. Re this coming season an example could be Benn, a player I've never liked but many have soured on this year due primarily to horrible production. I'm usually more skeptical of players shooting up the draft than down it though, guys like Chris Henry and Heyward Bey.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
If you google "Arian Foster second round," you'll come up with plenty of hits. Here are several: http://www.rockytoptalk.com/2009/4/21/8465...ts-arian-foster
http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-v...projection.html
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/308919-...back-for-texans
http://www.milehighreport.com/2009/3/24/80...oster-tennessee
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I was fortunate enough to add Foster in 7 leagues off the WW and am waiting to assess his real trade value. Others in my leagues have begun contacting me about him and I'll need to figure out if he's an early season sell-high or a keep-and-grow. I can say this though based on the interest I've been getting -- people are only willing to buy him right now if they can get him on the super cheap, and I'm not willing to let him be a sell-very-low right now. Lots of interest, but nobody wants to pay anything for their interest. LOL.
My absolute favorite thing in FF is finding the nobodies who become somebodies. I am constantly trying to figure out who the next big surprise will be, and I've found more than my share before others figured things out over the years. One thing I wouldn't do is worry about the "Foster can't do it" crowd. You will find that crowd with any player not drafted in the first 2 rounds, and I read it on this board when Brady was emerging, and Wille Parker, and Grant, and Hester, and this year Mike Walker, Austin, and Finley. And dozens of others. What I care about is the opinion of the guy making the decision to start or not start the player: his coach.
Kubiak is just the kind of guy to let Foster handle the load to start the season, one who isn't concerned with pedigree at the RB position. He adopted that philosophy in Denver and believes successful RBs can be found other than in the first part of the draft. I believe Foster will begin 2010 in a quasi-featured role, with Slaton getting a lesser portion of the carries, and we'll see how it goes from there. Foster may fumble away his opportunity like Slaton did. Or he may start for a full season or more. There's no way to know yet. But he's a hold for now because he'll get his chance, and because the offers I've seen don't inspire doing otherwise.
My absolute favorite thing in FF is finding the nobodies who become somebodies. I am constantly trying to figure out who the next big surprise will be, and I've found more than my share before others figured things out over the years. One thing I wouldn't do is worry about the "Foster can't do it" crowd. You will find that crowd with any player not drafted in the first 2 rounds, and I read it on this board when Brady was emerging, and Wille Parker, and Grant, and Hester, and this year Mike Walker, Austin, and Finley. And dozens of others. What I care about is the opinion of the guy making the decision to start or not start the player: his coach.
Kubiak is just the kind of guy to let Foster handle the load to start the season, one who isn't concerned with pedigree at the RB position. He adopted that philosophy in Denver and believes successful RBs can be found other than in the first part of the draft. I believe Foster will begin 2010 in a quasi-featured role, with Slaton getting a lesser portion of the carries, and we'll see how it goes from there. Foster may fumble away his opportunity like Slaton did. Or he may start for a full season or more. There's no way to know yet. But he's a hold for now because he'll get his chance, and because the offers I've seen don't inspire doing otherwise.
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I don't think it's nitpicking at verbage. If I came here and posted that Earl Bennett was the greatest player to ever play WR in the history of the NFL, and people said that was insane, would that be a case of nitpicking verbage? Special means special. The word means "distinguished or different from what is ordinary or usual", or "extraordinary; exceptional, as in amount or degree". I don't think there's anything extraordinary about Doucet. I don't think there's anything about Doucet that is different from ordinary. That's not nitpicking verbage, that's disagreeing with classifying him as a special talent.Generally, when I'm talking about special, I'm talking about the top 10-20% of the league. If you extend the definition much beyond that, then you start getting guys who are, by definition, ordinary or usual. I'm really curious in what ways you think that Early Doucet stands above his peers. In what ways is he in the top 25% of the entire NFL? Do you believe that he has certain skillsets that would qualify as special? Would you rank him as a top 15 or even top 20 dynasty WR? What is special about him? Because when I look at him, I see a #4 WR with no distinguishing performances or characteristics, which is about as unspecial as they come.I also think that, while Breaston isn't special, he's a lot closer than Doucet is. He's already one of the league's better punt returners, and he's performed well as an actual real-world NFL #2 facing actual real-world #2 coverages. He may not be special, but he's dependable, and that has value, too.
LessThanZero
Footballguy
I absolutely still see him as an RB1. All those flags are enough that I'll listen to offers this year, but I don't see myself actually trying to sell him off for another year or two.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Well, there's one thing that can't be said about any other player in the NFL. He's ALWAYS Early.
az_prof
Footballguy
This pun is special...but not in a good way.
corpcow
Footballguy
ABSOLUTELY. In my primary dynasty league (16 team IDP league with contracts), UFA is closed from the start of the playoffs (Week 13) through Jan 8th... (Thankfully we're changing that next year). Every year, it's absolutely COMICAL to see how a number of owners (with plenty of contract and salary space after losing players, decrementing contracts, etc) completely overreact to post-season performance. E.g., after the NYG Super Bowl win, Bradshaw was picked up for a $4.8m/5y contract. To put this in perspective, 1.01 pick is $3m and there are no increases on an ORC; so ADP, etc are still $3m of a $60m cap for up to 5 yrs (CY max). Meanwhile, Bradshaw gets a 4% increase every year on top of that.
There's an equivalent Bradshaw every year
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
The key is you do not have to be a stud talent to put up stud numbers in the one cut system. Also, I generally sell high on players like this (assuming average or below talent) because they are usually WAY overvalued.MAC_32 said:Foster played in college with average explosiveness and average power. Kinda of jack of all trades and a master of none. However in Kubiack's RB friendly system he could be a productive back.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Personally I like Foster, but I think people sometimes over-rate these late season performances by backs that have fresh legs (didn't see many early season carries) against worn down defenses. We see it every season - great late season performances by "nobody" RBs that go back to being very average the following season(s). Backs like Tashard Choice (who I do think has talent but shouldn't run all over Balt., Pitts and NYG) and Samkon Gado come to mind as recent examples off thte top of my head but theres many more expamples. Personally I think Jerome Harrison is going to be another to add to the list.Fear & Loathing said:Fair enough. Thanks for the history and kind words, Lash.Personally, I go more by what a player does at the NFL level. Foster was easily the best back on the Texans this season, producing two of the team's three best running performances despite playing heavily in just three games. His leg-drive against the Pats in Week 17 was very impressive, and he's a good fit for the Texans' one cut and go scheme.Lash said:hehe, awesome ... was posting my last post while Mac and Fear were discussing me LOL
yes, we are fanatical but Foster would get run down by DLineman (lacks speed), always dinged up (injury prone), and fumbled in MORE than just his senior year - hint: check out the Bowl game he lost early in his career - just gutwrenching goalline fumbles (fumble prone)
now saying that he was a fine college back and he served us well because Erik Ainge LOVED to check down to his RB on 3rd and 16 (fanatical) and Lane Kiffin/Ed Orgeron may burn in hellfire for all eternity (fanatical)
by the way F&R, love your blog, been on board for this entire thread as a lurker, will try to help out more via posts
p.s. i loved the Fisher Manning-jersey stunt and don't know of anybody that didn't
Furthermore, his 4.76 YPC was nearly a full yard more than Ryan Moats' average and a yard and a half more than Snacks Slaton's average. Foster also averaged 11.6 yards per reception on eight catches, showing very good hands and after-the-catch ability. He fumbled once in 62 touches while Slaton fumbled seven times in 175 touches and Moats fumbled three times in 114 touches.
If he stinks, that doesn't say much for ol' Slaton running behind the same line.
footballsavvy
Footballguy
Forsett=Sproles nowArian Foster=Deshaun Foster in CarolinaArian will hang around for a couple of years as the starter, despite obviously being nothing special.Forsett will always be that guy that is too small, that everyone just wishes would get his shot to prove he could hold up to starter carries......he won't ever get that shot. Seattle will select a big back in this draft, my guess is Blount, and he will be the back of the future.MAC_32 said:
footballsavvy
Footballguy
Jerome Harrison is my top candidate for bust of the year. I'm not sure what cosmological factors came into play during the 200+ yard performance, but I think the 25+ carries it took to get him over 100 yards the last two games is very telling. Harrison is going to bust in a big way next season and in my opinion, if your counting on him to start next year, you are in big trouble. Sell, sell, sell, selll, sell!!Personally I like Foster, but I think people sometimes over-rate these late season performances by backs that have fresh legs (didn't see many early season carries) against worn down defenses. We see it every season - great late season performances by "nobody" RBs that go back to being very average the following season(s). Backs like Tashard Choice (who I do think has talent but shouldn't run all over Balt., Pitts and NYG) and Samkon Gado come to mind as recent examples off thte top of my head but theres many more expamples. Personally I think Jerome Harrison is going to be another to add to the list.Fear & Loathing said:Fair enough. Thanks for the history and kind words, Lash.Personally, I go more by what a player does at the NFL level. Foster was easily the best back on the Texans this season, producing two of the team's three best running performances despite playing heavily in just three games. His leg-drive against the Pats in Week 17 was very impressive, and he's a good fit for the Texans' one cut and go scheme.Lash said:hehe, awesome ... was posting my last post while Mac and Fear were discussing me LOL
yes, we are fanatical but Foster would get run down by DLineman (lacks speed), always dinged up (injury prone), and fumbled in MORE than just his senior year - hint: check out the Bowl game he lost early in his career - just gutwrenching goalline fumbles (fumble prone)
now saying that he was a fine college back and he served us well because Erik Ainge LOVED to check down to his RB on 3rd and 16 (fanatical) and Lane Kiffin/Ed Orgeron may burn in hellfire for all eternity (fanatical)
by the way F&R, love your blog, been on board for this entire thread as a lurker, will try to help out more via posts
p.s. i loved the Fisher Manning-jersey stunt and don't know of anybody that didn't
Furthermore, his 4.76 YPC was nearly a full yard more than Ryan Moats' average and a yard and a half more than Snacks Slaton's average. Foster also averaged 11.6 yards per reception on eight catches, showing very good hands and after-the-catch ability. He fumbled once in 62 touches while Slaton fumbled seven times in 175 touches and Moats fumbled three times in 114 touches.
If he stinks, that doesn't say much for ol' Slaton running behind the same line.
footballsavvy
Footballguy
What constitutes "special" as it pertains to FF Wr's?Doucet- Has Size, Has Speed, is physical, blocks well, hands are a C- compared to Braylon F+, and may have the opportunity to start next year on a top 5 passing offense.I wouldn't get too caught up in comparing raw athleticsm in one WR vs. another. Doucett is a special talent or he wouldn't have had the kind of game that he had against an NFL defense. Of course there are many other's who have had those type performances and not ever duplicated them, but there are 100 times more players who never came close to stats like that.From what I saw of Doucet in college and when given the opportunity this year, the Cards would not miss a beat if they lost Boldin via trade.SSOG said:
lyon812
Footballguy
It bears mentioning that when you have Derek Anderson going 8-17 in one game and 7-11 in another, and the opposition has absolutely no fear of the passing game because you only have one effective offensive player, that Harrison's high-carry, mediocre-ypc efforts certainly can be painted in another light.
footballsavvy
Footballguy
I agree completely. That is why I think he busts completely next year. No QB, No talented Wr's, Evan Moore is the next best weapon on the team!Only S-Jax can overcome obstacles like that.
footballsavvy
Footballguy
I agree completely. That is why I think he busts completely next year. No QB, No talented Wr's, Evan Moore is the next best weapon on the team!Only S-Jax can overcome obstacles like that.
munchkin
Footballguy
Rice, McGhee and Shon Greene looked pretty good this past weekend with QB's throwing passes = age/2!!!
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Foster update. In one of my leagues I just accepted an offer of Ocho Cinco for Foster and my 2010 2nd rounder (#21 overall) and my 2011 2nd rounder. My teams are generally good enough in these MOX leagues that my 2nd rounders are always going to be 21+ picks in, and rosters already strong enough that it's hard to make room for the picked player. So, Ocho for Foster was a good value IMO even if Ocho only has 2 more good years. He just turned 32 and I don't see anyone usurping his role during that time.Couch Potato said:
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Did we watch the same game? Doucet was 6/77/2. He wasn't covered at all on the first 15 yard TD. Every WR in the NFL makes that play. Yes, even DHB. Here's the play. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlig...-15-yard-TD-recHe beat Jarrett Bush (by far the worst CB on the Packers) for the 2nd TD, and two Packer defenders didn't even try to wrap him up when they had the chance. That was his highlight play of the day. His long gain of the day was 16 yards while being covered by LB Nick Barnett. Doucet had a nice day, but I didn't see anything "special"
If you would like to see special, check out this video of Greg Jennings' day. Notice him being covered by McFadden or DRC on 7 of his 8 catches. There are a few catches in there that would impress Cris Carter.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlig...ings-highlights
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I have zero faith in Carson Palmer, but that's still a great trade for you. I can't believe the other guy went for it.
footballsavvy
Footballguy
I agree that Jennings is special. I am not really even forecasting Doucett as a stud. I am simply saying, that in the opportunity he has been given this year, he has not shown himself to be untalented. Miles Austin was not special until his third year 5 games in when he was FINALLY given a chance. All Wr's are special talents in the NFL. No one knows what makes some arrive while others never do.
Just because someone projects that Doucett will be a fantasy assett based on a small sample does not mean they are idiots. This whole hobby is based entriely on opinions, otherwise, it would be boring.
Doucett had an "It" factor in that game. Everyone I have talked about that game recognized it. I don't know if he will be next years Miles Austin or this years Dwayne Jarrett. All I am saying is based on what I have seen, if the opportunity to start is there, he is talented enough to make an impact next season.
Miles Austin was given plenty of chances but did nothing with them prior to his breakout. He had every opportunity to win a starting job in training camp with the ever-unimpressive Patrick Crayton in the #2 slot and was unable to do so. Austin's breakout was pretty much entirely unexpected and nobody that I can remember was consistently touting him as a "special" top 10 talent before he broke out.
There was a lot of talk about him prior to this season. He was a sleeper favorite by many. I don't know if anyone was touting him as a top 10 guy, but there were plenty of people who thought he would end up the #1 WR in Dallas over ROY sooner rather than later (sadly, I wasn't one of them). I would not say it was unexpected at all.
I'm pretty much on board with these rankings, however I do disagree somewhat on the tiers.I'd add V-JAX and Wayne to tier 1 and begin tier 2 with Austin. I like Austin, but he just doesn't give me the same comfort and reliability as Wayne or Jackson. Its very possible that this will be his career year. I'm not saying he should be any lower than 6(though I'd probably take White over him and DeSean Jackson too if forced to choose) but I think he's much more than 1 value point behind Wayne and V-JAX.Then in tier 2, I'd make it from Austin down to Harvin(who is becoming my favorite 2010 breakout player) with Crabtree to Bowe being tier 3. I'd also say Steve Smith is too low. I'd definitely take him over Colston or Rice, and maybe even over Moss, now that it looks like he won't be saddled with Delhomme. With as dominant as Carolina's running game has looked,even with Gross and Otah out, I can imagine Smith getting deep off play action a lot in 2010. I'm as big of a DeSean Jackson fan as anyone, but when his QB isn't a liability, Steve Smith is still the best big play WR in the NFL in my opinion.For some reason I don't like Marques Colston all that much, personally I'm not sure I wouldn't take both Viking WR's over him. He just disappears a lot. He's kinda of like the WR version of Pierre Thomas in that he's got great rate stats and is very effective, but then Colston will have 9 catches in a 3-game stretch. I can't explain why that similar inconsistency with Thomas somehow makes me think Thomas is underrated and Colston is overrated but it does. I have them both around 15th at their positions.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Miles Austin is a monster, and he's one of the few guys out there whose ranking is non-negotiable IMO. He's quickly becoming one of my favorite receivers in the league.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
How much did Al Davis pay for Larry Brown again?corpcow said:ABSOLUTELY. In my primary dynasty league (16 team IDP league with contracts), UFA is closed from the start of the playoffs (Week 13) through Jan 8th... (Thankfully we're changing that next year). Every year, it's absolutely COMICAL to see how a number of owners (with plenty of contract and salary space after losing players, decrementing contracts, etc) completely overreact to post-season performance. E.g., after the NYG Super Bowl win, Bradshaw was picked up for a $4.8m/5y contract. To put this in perspective, 1.01 pick is $3m and there are no increases on an ORC; so ADP, etc are still $3m of a $60m cap for up to 5 yrs (CY max). Meanwhile, Bradshaw gets a 4% increase every year on top of that.
There's an equivalent Bradshaw every year
I do try to roster a few players that I think will have a decent post season (Doucet being one of those guys). I will usually try to sell them for a marginal gain during the offseason.
Instinctive
Footballguy
How can we say this is a career year for him? He didn't even see the ball until week 5!!!!!I don't believe he started until week 7 (after bye) or maybe week 8, iirc.So he has the same type of numbers as guys like Wayne and Fitz...in 4 less games.He's amazing after the catch, and Romo likes him. Recipe for very long term success. I'd even bump him up to even or in front of Wayne.Other than that, I think Brandon Marshal is significantly too low. I'd rather have him than all of 12-17.My other gripes would be that I would rather have Nicks and Crabtree than Harvin. Harvin's electric, but these are big huge strong fast guys who have just as good skills at route running as Harvin has...Nicks sure flashed some great YAC skills...which is Harvin's big upside.I like him, but I think I would just rather have Nicks and Crabtree at this point. In fact, I do...I own those two in multiple leagues and Harvin in none (anymore)
lyon812
Footballguy
Sure, I agree--if he stays in Cleveland it's a poor recipe for success. However, his staying there isn't a given, though I'll grant that Holmgren's recent comments make it sound like he's going to get offered plenty of incentives to stay.
Everyone is special? Everyone can't be special- it contradicts the very definition of special. I mean, by that token, you could use the words "special" and "average" interchangeably.Sure, when you compare NFL WRs to their high school or college peers, then they're special... but we're comparing NFL WRs against each other, and the threshold for "special" is much, much higher.
az_prof
Footballguy
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