Dynasty Rankings (13 Viewers)

[Fear & Loathing]

Didn't McFadden pile up most of his stats against Tennessee in the 4th quarter when they were running a dime-prevent? At the end of the day, those stats count all the same but you can't rely on that to happen every week.

Nope. From another thread:First quarter: 7/32 rushing 1/3 receivingSecond quarter: 4/26 3/42 receivingSo he had decent stats before garbage time.

And contrary to Herm23's scouting report on that game, I thought he looked outstanding against a very good defensive front four with little help from his own O-Line.

 

[shader]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.

Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...

I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.

But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...

I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?

Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.

Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

 

[Herm23]

Didn't McFadden pile up most of his stats against Tennessee in the 4th quarter when they were running a dime-prevent? At the end of the day, those stats count all the same but you can't rely on that to happen every week.

Nope. From another thread:First quarter: 7/32 rushing 1/3 receivingSecond quarter: 4/26 3/42 receivingSo he had decent stats before garbage time.

And contrary to Herm23's scouting report on that game, I thought he looked outstanding against a very good defensive front four with little help from his own O-Line.

Then we must have watched very different games. He took advantage of some decent running lanes on a few plays that allowed him to put up some yards in the first half, but at no point during the first 30 minutes of football did he play great, at least in my eyes. He left yards on the field and did not impress me in the least. The second half was a different story, as he generally looked shifty without dancing needlessly, was trucking defenders, falling forward, and maximizing yardage for perhaps the first time in his career. However, as I said earlier, I am essentially discounting the entire performance in week 2 and chalking it up to playing St. Louis, who lacks an oustanding anything (this is not a very good defensive front, as you asserted, and I expect every starting RB they play the entire season to challenge and/or break 100 rushing yards). I will stand by my statement that if you have an owner in your league that is drinking the kool-aid and buying into top 10 or top 15 hype, the time to move him is now.

 

[Herm23]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

As always, it depends on what you can get in return. However, in my opinion unless you are receving Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, or Ray Rice in return (and possibly Jonathan Stewart), then he should not be sold (and you obviously won't be getting those guys back in return...at least not yet). Based on how he looks, I believe he has all the tools to join the previously mentioned players in the top tier. It's definitely not a sure thing, as his extreme lack of patience and inability to let the holes develop is at least something to monitor (although I expect that to correct itself as he gains experience), but I'm not sure any current RB stands a better chance of joining the elite group. You could consider the top tier WR's or QB's, but probably can't get fair value for him right now considering his potential (if he is capable of Peterson/CJ/MJD production, he is worth more than any WR or QB, most likely).Put another way, outside of the top tier of RB's, who would you rather have? Mendenhall doesn't look or feel as "special", Gore is a consideration but the age gap is quite large, DeAngelo Williams has age + Stewart to worry about, Jamaal Charles can't even secure the feature job yet, ditto Beanie on the feature job worry, Steven Jackson is on the backside of his prime and mired in a horrible offense, and Best has looked FAR better than Mathews through 2 games (albeit very small sample size). The one player worth considering is probably Jonathan Stewart, who has his own set of concerns. The injury angle is overblown with Best in my opinion, as he really isn't injury prone. He had 1 major, well publicized injury that everyone was painfully aware of because the highlights were replaied ad nauseum due to the nature of the play (flipping and landing on his head).

 

[PranksterJD]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

If you were able to not worry about the health problems and draft him, what has come up that re-invigorated your concern?I mean, I don't think that he ends up as the #2 overall FF player, but I also don't think I'm getting CJ3 or ADP for him without adding something big on top. I'm game for talking about a sell high, but what are you trying to get for him?

 

[Concept Coop]

It has been proven. There's no abstract math formula involved. If Player A scores 3,000 points for his career, and Player B scores 2,000 points for his career, then Player A will net you more wins over a long timeline than Player B, even if Player B scores his points sooner. This isn't "abstract mathematical formula". This is "simple mathematical fact". Or, as I phrased it early, trading more points over a long timeline in exchange for fewer points over a long timeline always results in scoring fewer points over a long timeline. There's nothing that needs to be proven- the statement is a truism.

That is not true at all. If Player A scores 20 points a year for 5 years, he is worth much more than a player that scores 10 points a year for 10 years. The player scoring 10 points is much easier to find, replace, and may not even be worth a start some years. Assuming you meant the same points per year, I still disagree with you. As an owner, you should know when you are in the hunt and when you are not. If I am competing this year, Player A's 20 points over the next 5, is absolutely worth more than players B's 20 points for 5 years, starting in two years. You are more accurately able to predict and control other variables surrounding your team.

If you don't value production this year, more than 3 years from now, I don't know how you will ever win. I have never seen it work out that way. In just about every league I have been in, a contending team needs a bump over the top. This usually happens by hampering future flexability some what. Using your draft pick example, there is a reason it will cost you a 2nd rounder to swap 1sts, a year apart.

 

[shader]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

If you were able to not worry about the health problems and draft him, what has come up that re-invigorated your concern?I mean, I don't think that he ends up as the #2 overall FF player, but I also don't think I'm getting CJ3 or ADP for him without adding something big on top. I'm game for talking about a sell high, but what are you trying to get for him?

I guess my point is that I never really though of Best as a CJ type of player. Never thought he'd be a perennial top 5 RB. I still don't really think that, and the reason is that I don't think he can stand up to the pounding. I've had California Bears' fans tell me that Best is great, but that he seems to get injured and hurt quite a bit. Now he's in the NFL, and I just don't see how it can last.The post right before yours illustrates my point. He right now is being thought of as a top 5 dynasty RB. That won't be the case if he gets laid out with a concussion in game 3. I know predicting injuries is impossible, but I just don't think he can stand up to the rigors of a huge workload (and if we're being honest, I don't even think Chris Johnson will last at the workload he's being given either). Maybe I'm way off base here, but if I can trade him as an elite, top 3-5 player, that's a heckuva return on the investment in just two short weeks.

 

[Concept Coop]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

As always, it depends on what you can get in return. However, in my opinion unless you are receving Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, or Ray Rice in return (and possibly Jonathan Stewart), then he should not be sold (and you obviously won't be getting those guys back in return...at least not yet). Based on how he looks, I believe he has all the tools to join the previously mentioned players in the top tier. It's definitely not a sure thing, as his extreme lack of patience and inability to let the holes develop is at least something to monitor (although I expect that to correct itself as he gains experience), but I'm not sure any current RB stands a better chance of joining the elite group. You could consider the top tier WR's or QB's, but probably can't get fair value for him right now considering his potential (if he is capable of Peterson/CJ/MJD production, he is worth more than any WR or QB, most likely).Put another way, outside of the top tier of RB's, who would you rather have? Mendenhall doesn't look or feel as "special", Gore is a consideration but the age gap is quite large, DeAngelo Williams has age + Stewart to worry about, Jamaal Charles can't even secure the feature job yet, ditto Beanie on the feature job worry, Steven Jackson is on the backside of his prime and mired in a horrible offense, and Best has looked FAR better than Mathews through 2 games (albeit very small sample size). The one player worth considering is probably Jonathan Stewart, who has his own set of concerns. The injury angle is overblown with Best in my opinion, as he really isn't injury prone. He had 1 major, well publicized injury that everyone was painfully aware of because the highlights were replaied ad nauseum due to the nature of the play (flipping and landing on his head).

He had one great game, and one horrible game. I would trade him, if I could get top value for him. Just about any of the top 10 RBs, including guys like Gore, who are getting a bit older. Big games happen. So do bad games. But when you can trade hype for proven top 10 players, I think you do it, more often than not. Now if you thought Best was a future top 10 player before his huge game, maybe you keep him. I didn't and would trade him in a heartbeat. He is small, injury prone, plays for the Lions, and looked almost as bad as he did great, week one.

 

[Go deep]

It has been proven. There's no abstract math formula involved. If Player A scores 3,000 points for his career, and Player B scores 2,000 points for his career, then Player A will net you more wins over a long timeline than Player B, even if Player B scores his points sooner. This isn't "abstract mathematical formula". This is "simple mathematical fact". Or, as I phrased it early, trading more points over a long timeline in exchange for fewer points over a long timeline always results in scoring fewer points over a long timeline. There's nothing that needs to be proven- the statement is a truism.

That is not true at all. If Player A scores 20 points a year for 5 years, he is worth much more than a player that scores 10 points a year for 10 years. The player scoring 10 points is much easier to find, replace, and may not even be worth a start some years. Assuming you meant the same points per year, I still disagree with you. As an owner, you should know when you are in the hunt and when you are not. If I am competing this year, Player A's 20 points over the next 5, is absolutely worth more than players B's 20 points for 5 years, starting in two years. You are more accurately able to predict and control other variables surrounding your team.

If you don't value production this year, more than 3 years from now, I don't know how you will ever win. I have never seen it work out that way. In just about every league I have been in, a contending team needs a bump over the top. This usually happens by hampering future flexability some what. Using your draft pick example, there is a reason it will cost you a 2nd rounder to swap 1sts, a year apart.

Whats more important to you, 300 points this year, or 300 points for each of the next 3 years?

 

[shader]

Can we put the Foster vs Stewart comparisons to bed right now? I don't care how good Stewart is going to be in the future, he's falling off the map right now in 2010. The immediate gains that Foster gives are far too much to even consider.

I mean, MAYBE if you know your 2010 season is completely over, then maybe you pull the trigger...

And I can see a scenario where you have Stewart, and you decide to hold, rather than trade him for Foster.

But I can't imagine how any owner that had Foster would give him up for Stewart straight up. Stewart's value is plummeting right now. It'll start to climb again once we hit mid-season, he gets healthy and more teams start playing for 2011. But for now, I'd stay far, far away.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Can we put the Foster vs Stewart comparisons to bed right now? I don't care how good Stewart is going to be in the future, he's falling off the map right now in 2010. The immediate gains that Foster gives are far too much to even consider.

I mean, MAYBE if you know your 2010 season is completely over, then maybe you pull the trigger...

And I can see a scenario where you have Stewart, and you decide to hold, rather than trade him for Foster.

But I can't imagine how any owner that had Foster would give him up for Stewart straight up. Stewart's value is plummeting right now. It'll start to climb again once we hit mid-season, he gets healthy and more teams start playing for 2011. But for now, I'd stay far, far away.

I agree with just about everything you said, but I think the bolded is just wrong. Seems like a massive overreaction to me.

 

[Concept Coop]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

If you were able to not worry about the health problems and draft him, what has come up that re-invigorated your concern?I mean, I don't think that he ends up as the #2 overall FF player, but I also don't think I'm getting CJ3 or ADP for him without adding something big on top. I'm game for talking about a sell high, but what are you trying to get for him?

Larry Fitz, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Desean JacksonRashard Mendenhall, Frank Gore, Micheal Turner, Jonothan Stewart, DeWilThere have been players like Best before. Aside from CJ, most of them end up in RBBCs with TD vultures, or worse. (J.Charles, F. Jones, S.Slaton...). After his first injury, the Lions will start pampering him and monitering his run count. When that happens, you don't want him still on your roster. If you move him for a proven elite talent, and he does become great, sure, you missed out. But if you don't and he ends up like the many others, your franchise takes a major hit.

 

[thehornet]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

As always, it depends on what you can get in return. However, in my opinion unless you are receving Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, or Ray Rice in return (and possibly Jonathan Stewart), then he should not be sold (and you obviously won't be getting those guys back in return...at least not yet). Based on how he looks, I believe he has all the tools to join the previously mentioned players in the top tier. It's definitely not a sure thing, as his extreme lack of patience and inability to let the holes develop is at least something to monitor (although I expect that to correct itself as he gains experience), but I'm not sure any current RB stands a better chance of joining the elite group. You could consider the top tier WR's or QB's, but probably can't get fair value for him right now considering his potential (if he is capable of Peterson/CJ/MJD production, he is worth more than any WR or QB, most likely).Put another way, outside of the top tier of RB's, who would you rather have? Mendenhall doesn't look or feel as "special", Gore is a consideration but the age gap is quite large, DeAngelo Williams has age + Stewart to worry about, Jamaal Charles can't even secure the feature job yet, ditto Beanie on the feature job worry, Steven Jackson is on the backside of his prime and mired in a horrible offense, and Best has looked FAR better than Mathews through 2 games (albeit very small sample size). The one player worth considering is probably Jonathan Stewart, who has his own set of concerns. The injury angle is overblown with Best in my opinion, as he really isn't injury prone. He had 1 major, well publicized injury that everyone was painfully aware of because the highlights were replaied ad nauseum due to the nature of the play (flipping and landing on his head).

He had one great game, and one horrible game. I would trade him, if I could get top value for him. Just about any of the top 10 RBs, including guys like Gore, who are getting a bit older. Big games happen. So do bad games. But when you can trade hype for proven top 10 players, I think you do it, more often than not. Now if you thought Best was a future top 10 player before his huge game, maybe you keep him. I didn't and would trade him in a heartbeat. He is small, injury prone, plays for the Lions, and looked almost as bad as he did great, week one.

he's learning and not nearly as small as some of you think he is. outside of his concussion, how many games did he miss in his college career?

 

[Go deep]

Can we put the Foster vs Stewart comparisons to bed right now? I don't care how good Stewart is going to be in the future, he's falling off the map right now in 2010. The immediate gains that Foster gives are far too much to even consider.I mean, MAYBE if you know your 2010 season is completely over, then maybe you pull the trigger...And I can see a scenario where you have Stewart, and you decide to hold, rather than trade him for Foster.But I can't imagine how any owner that had Foster would give him up for Stewart straight up. Stewart's value is plummeting right now. It'll start to climb again once we hit mid-season, he gets healthy and more teams start playing for 2011. But for now, I'd stay far, far away.

Its all hypothetical anyway, i doubt a Stewart owner would trade him for Foster straight up anyway.

 

[shader]

Can we put the Foster vs Stewart comparisons to bed right now? I don't care how good Stewart is going to be in the future, he's falling off the map right now in 2010. The immediate gains that Foster gives are far too much to even consider.

I mean, MAYBE if you know your 2010 season is completely over, then maybe you pull the trigger...

And I can see a scenario where you have Stewart, and you decide to hold, rather than trade him for Foster.

But I can't imagine how any owner that had Foster would give him up for Stewart straight up. Stewart's value is plummeting right now. It'll start to climb again once we hit mid-season, he gets healthy and more teams start playing for 2011. But for now, I'd stay far, far away.

I agree with just about everything you said, but I think the bolded is just wrong. Seems like a massive overreaction to me.

Well I agree that it's an over-reaction, and maybe I shouldn't have said "plummeting" in the context of a dynasty thread as well, as I think his re-draft value is where he's plummeting, not necessarily in dynasty.However, there are many, many posts I'm reading, where Stewart is being called "unstartable".. I say that's ridiculous personally, but that "thought process" is what I had in mind when I say "plummeting". I think there will be many leagues right now where Stewart can be had for dirt cheap, relatively speaking, even in dynasty.

I personally would start him if I was in a format where I could start 3 or more RB's. He had goalline looks (Deangelo isn't getting any), and he had decent yardage.

 

[Concept Coop]

It has been proven. There's no abstract math formula involved. If Player A scores 3,000 points for his career, and Player B scores 2,000 points for his career, then Player A will net you more wins over a long timeline than Player B, even if Player B scores his points sooner. This isn't "abstract mathematical formula". This is "simple mathematical fact". Or, as I phrased it early, trading more points over a long timeline in exchange for fewer points over a long timeline always results in scoring fewer points over a long timeline. There's nothing that needs to be proven- the statement is a truism.

That is not true at all. If Player A scores 20 points a year for 5 years, he is worth much more than a player that scores 10 points a year for 10 years. The player scoring 10 points is much easier to find, replace, and may not even be worth a start some years. Assuming you meant the same points per year, I still disagree with you. As an owner, you should know when you are in the hunt and when you are not. If I am competing this year, Player A's 20 points over the next 5, is absolutely worth more than players B's 20 points for 5 years, starting in two years. You are more accurately able to predict and control other variables surrounding your team.

If you don't value production this year, more than 3 years from now, I don't know how you will ever win. I have never seen it work out that way. In just about every league I have been in, a contending team needs a bump over the top. This usually happens by hampering future flexability some what. Using your draft pick example, there is a reason it will cost you a 2nd rounder to swap 1sts, a year apart.

Whats more important to you, 300 points this year, or 300 points for each of the next 3 years?

Look, FF is much more like the NBA, in terms of running your teams. Based on the smaller pool of talent, you need the big guns to win. Being a "good" franchise for years and never making it over the top, prevents you from getting the Adrian Petersons and Larry Fitzgeralds that you will need to win the championship via the draft. That is why it is best to go all in, when you are close. If you can win the league two of the next 3 or 4 seasons, it is worth it, even if you have to rebuild after those 3 or 4 years. When you rebuild, you draft well, and you get your big guns and get right back in the mix.And your question is simple and insulting. You are not getting what I am saying, or you wouldn't feel the need to ask that question.

 

[EBF]

The kind of owners who were likely to spend a high price to acquire Stewart within the past 1-2 years are not the kind of owners who are likely to panic because of two quiet games in which he barely received any opportunities.

 

[Concept Coop]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

As always, it depends on what you can get in return. However, in my opinion unless you are receving Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, or Ray Rice in return (and possibly Jonathan Stewart), then he should not be sold (and you obviously won't be getting those guys back in return...at least not yet). Based on how he looks, I believe he has all the tools to join the previously mentioned players in the top tier. It's definitely not a sure thing, as his extreme lack of patience and inability to let the holes develop is at least something to monitor (although I expect that to correct itself as he gains experience), but I'm not sure any current RB stands a better chance of joining the elite group. You could consider the top tier WR's or QB's, but probably can't get fair value for him right now considering his potential (if he is capable of Peterson/CJ/MJD production, he is worth more than any WR or QB, most likely).Put another way, outside of the top tier of RB's, who would you rather have? Mendenhall doesn't look or feel as "special", Gore is a consideration but the age gap is quite large, DeAngelo Williams has age + Stewart to worry about, Jamaal Charles can't even secure the feature job yet, ditto Beanie on the feature job worry, Steven Jackson is on the backside of his prime and mired in a horrible offense, and Best has looked FAR better than Mathews through 2 games (albeit very small sample size). The one player worth considering is probably Jonathan Stewart, who has his own set of concerns. The injury angle is overblown with Best in my opinion, as he really isn't injury prone. He had 1 major, well publicized injury that everyone was painfully aware of because the highlights were replaied ad nauseum due to the nature of the play (flipping and landing on his head).

He had one great game, and one horrible game. I would trade him, if I could get top value for him. Just about any of the top 10 RBs, including guys like Gore, who are getting a bit older. Big games happen. So do bad games. But when you can trade hype for proven top 10 players, I think you do it, more often than not. Now if you thought Best was a future top 10 player before his huge game, maybe you keep him. I didn't and would trade him in a heartbeat. He is small, injury prone, plays for the Lions, and looked almost as bad as he did great, week one.

he's learning and not nearly as small as some of you think he is. outside of his concussion, how many games did he miss in his college career?

I don't know how many he missed and am not going to bother looking it up. I know he has issues with concussions and I know his body-type does not typically last in the NFL at the RB spot. I suggest you go back and find the article that FBG's did about Best and Spiller over the summer. RBs with their BMI's don't become every-down backs in the NFL. Aside from CJ, it doesn't happen.

 

[shader]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

As always, it depends on what you can get in return. However, in my opinion unless you are receving Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, or Ray Rice in return (and possibly Jonathan Stewart), then he should not be sold (and you obviously won't be getting those guys back in return...at least not yet). Based on how he looks, I believe he has all the tools to join the previously mentioned players in the top tier. It's definitely not a sure thing, as his extreme lack of patience and inability to let the holes develop is at least something to monitor (although I expect that to correct itself as he gains experience), but I'm not sure any current RB stands a better chance of joining the elite group. You could consider the top tier WR's or QB's, but probably can't get fair value for him right now considering his potential (if he is capable of Peterson/CJ/MJD production, he is worth more than any WR or QB, most likely).Put another way, outside of the top tier of RB's, who would you rather have? Mendenhall doesn't look or feel as "special", Gore is a consideration but the age gap is quite large, DeAngelo Williams has age + Stewart to worry about, Jamaal Charles can't even secure the feature job yet, ditto Beanie on the feature job worry, Steven Jackson is on the backside of his prime and mired in a horrible offense, and Best has looked FAR better than Mathews through 2 games (albeit very small sample size). The one player worth considering is probably Jonathan Stewart, who has his own set of concerns. The injury angle is overblown with Best in my opinion, as he really isn't injury prone. He had 1 major, well publicized injury that everyone was painfully aware of because the highlights were replaied ad nauseum due to the nature of the play (flipping and landing on his head).

He had one great game, and one horrible game. I would trade him, if I could get top value for him. Just about any of the top 10 RBs, including guys like Gore, who are getting a bit older. Big games happen. So do bad games. But when you can trade hype for proven top 10 players, I think you do it, more often than not. Now if you thought Best was a future top 10 player before his huge game, maybe you keep him. I didn't and would trade him in a heartbeat. He is small, injury prone, plays for the Lions, and looked almost as bad as he did great, week one.

he's learning and not nearly as small as some of you think he is. outside of his concussion, how many games did he miss in his college career?

He does look pretty beefy up top. Much moreso than Spiller, imo..which is why I like him so much.Trust me, it would take alot for me to trade him, I'm just saying if some owner HAS TO HAVE HIM, now is a good time to part ways, as his value is really high.

 

[Northern Voice]

Solid week for rookie receivers. Bryant, Thomas and Williams all looking like guys who will put up solid numbers this season. Seems like all 3 merit consideration in the top 25 or so dynasty WR's.

 

[Go deep]

It has been proven. There's no abstract math formula involved. If Player A scores 3,000 points for his career, and Player B scores 2,000 points for his career, then Player A will net you more wins over a long timeline than Player B, even if Player B scores his points sooner. This isn't "abstract mathematical formula". This is "simple mathematical fact". Or, as I phrased it early, trading more points over a long timeline in exchange for fewer points over a long timeline always results in scoring fewer points over a long timeline. There's nothing that needs to be proven- the statement is a truism.

That is not true at all. If Player A scores 20 points a year for 5 years, he is worth much more than a player that scores 10 points a year for 10 years. The player scoring 10 points is much easier to find, replace, and may not even be worth a start some years. Assuming you meant the same points per year, I still disagree with you. As an owner, you should know when you are in the hunt and when you are not. If I am competing this year, Player A's 20 points over the next 5, is absolutely worth more than players B's 20 points for 5 years, starting in two years. You are more accurately able to predict and control other variables surrounding your team.

If you don't value production this year, more than 3 years from now, I don't know how you will ever win. I have never seen it work out that way. In just about every league I have been in, a contending team needs a bump over the top. This usually happens by hampering future flexability some what. Using your draft pick example, there is a reason it will cost you a 2nd rounder to swap 1sts, a year apart.

Whats more important to you, 300 points this year, or 300 points for each of the next 3 years?

Look, FF is much more like the NBA, in terms of running your teams. Based on the smaller pool of talent, you need the big guns to win. Being a "good" franchise for years and never making it over the top, prevents you from getting the Adrian Petersons and Larry Fitzgeralds that you will need to win the championship via the draft. That is why it is best to go all in, when you are close. If you can win the league two of the next 3 or 4 seasons, it is worth it, even if you have to rebuild after those 3 or 4 years. When you rebuild, you draft well, and you get your big guns and get right back in the mix.And your question is simple and insulting. You are not getting what I am saying, or you wouldn't feel the need to ask that question.

There are different ways to run a dynasty team. You and i would make great trade partners. I am more of a recycler, i trade older players towards the end of their career for young players or picks. This way, my team is always full of players who can help me this year and in the future.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't know how many he missed and am not going to bother looking it up. I know he has issues with concussions and I know his body-type does not typically last in the NFL at the RB spot. I suggest you go back and find the article that FBG's did about Best and Spiller over the summer. RBs with their BMI's don't become every-down backs in the NFL. Aside from CJ, it doesn't happen.

Anyone treating BMI with a dogmatic bent missed out on CJ, the most valuable asset in the game right now. It's important to treat players with special talent as unique entities instead of trying to pigeon-hole them into a narrow mind-set.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't know how many he missed and am not going to bother looking it up. I know he has issues with concussions and I know his body-type does not typically last in the NFL at the RB spot. I suggest you go back and find the article that FBG's did about Best and Spiller over the summer. RBs with their BMI's don't become every-down backs in the NFL. Aside from CJ, it doesn't happen.

Anyone treating BMI with a dogmatic bent missed out on CJ, the most valuable asset in the game right now. It's important to treat players with special talent as unique entities instead of trying to pigeon-hole them into a narrow mind-set.

Narrow minded? It is much more narrow minded to say "CJ did it, so I will ignore the fact taht 90% of them don't." CJ is a freak and doesn't come along very often. If you want to use that math, or lack of, be my guest. Good luck.

 

[Herm23]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

As always, it depends on what you can get in return. However, in my opinion unless you are receving Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, or Ray Rice in return (and possibly Jonathan Stewart), then he should not be sold (and you obviously won't be getting those guys back in return...at least not yet). Based on how he looks, I believe he has all the tools to join the previously mentioned players in the top tier. It's definitely not a sure thing, as his extreme lack of patience and inability to let the holes develop is at least something to monitor (although I expect that to correct itself as he gains experience), but I'm not sure any current RB stands a better chance of joining the elite group. You could consider the top tier WR's or QB's, but probably can't get fair value for him right now considering his potential (if he is capable of Peterson/CJ/MJD production, he is worth more than any WR or QB, most likely).Put another way, outside of the top tier of RB's, who would you rather have? Mendenhall doesn't look or feel as "special", Gore is a consideration but the age gap is quite large, DeAngelo Williams has age + Stewart to worry about, Jamaal Charles can't even secure the feature job yet, ditto Beanie on the feature job worry, Steven Jackson is on the backside of his prime and mired in a horrible offense, and Best has looked FAR better than Mathews through 2 games (albeit very small sample size). The one player worth considering is probably Jonathan Stewart, who has his own set of concerns. The injury angle is overblown with Best in my opinion, as he really isn't injury prone. He had 1 major, well publicized injury that everyone was painfully aware of because the highlights were replaied ad nauseum due to the nature of the play (flipping and landing on his head).

He had one great game, and one horrible game. I would trade him, if I could get top value for him. Just about any of the top 10 RBs, including guys like Gore, who are getting a bit older. Big games happen. So do bad games. But when you can trade hype for proven top 10 players, I think you do it, more often than not. Now if you thought Best was a future top 10 player before his huge game, maybe you keep him. I didn't and would trade him in a heartbeat. He is small, injury prone, plays for the Lions, and looked almost as bad as he did great, week one.

I guess my point was that you simply WON'T get fair value in return for him right now, which makes him a hold. Any of the 10 top RB owners or top 5 WR owners most likely aren't going to ship those players for Best just yet, which means you would dealing for the 3rd tier of WR's or RB's (Beanie, Spiller, Greene, Marshall, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Sidney Rice, Crabtree, etc...). I don't feel those players measure up to Best's situation or talent.Taking it one step further, trading Best for even someone like Mendenhall (a top 10 RB) is, in my opinion, a lateral move at best (no pun intended) and causes you to lose out on the potential to have the player that can vault to the truly elite group (I think Best has the talent and situation to make that leap if things go right while Mendenhall and everyone ranked around Mendenhall do not). I was of the belief that he was an elite talent capable of top 10 (heck, even top 5) production over the course of his career before even the pre-season began, so I'm certainly not changing my opinion at this point (and even if he had started horribly I wouldn't be). Call it a 2 game overreaction if you want, but I view it more as the public catching up to what some already knew about Jahvid Best- he is an elite talent in a rapidly improving situation that was unfairly downgraded over a perceived lack of short yardage ability (I assure you there are none and he is plenty capable of being a 3 down, all situation running back), and a perceived injury concern (which never existed, as his injury was a freak one and not something at great risk of being repeated).

 

[shader]

The kind of owners who were likely to spend a high price to acquire Stewart within the past 1-2 years are not the kind of owners who are likely to panic because of two quiet games in which he barely received any opportunities.

If someone drafted Stewart when he came out as a rookie, I'd have to think this is about the time when they are getting fed up. I don't know how to verify this, but at this point, I imagine Stewart is going to get traded this week by a large number of dynasty owners.When your first round pick still isn't getting it done for you 2 games into his 3rd season, the pick isn't working out for you, no matter how good he might be in the future. Again, it comes down to how long you want to put off future success in exchange for current production.Now yes, if someone acquired Stewart at the end of last year or during the off-season, they will be content waiting awhile.But an original Stewart owner has to be getting fed up waiting.

 

[shader]

I don't know how many he missed and am not going to bother looking it up. I know he has issues with concussions and I know his body-type does not typically last in the NFL at the RB spot. I suggest you go back and find the article that FBG's did about Best and Spiller over the summer. RBs with their BMI's don't become every-down backs in the NFL. Aside from CJ, it doesn't happen.

Anyone treating BMI with a dogmatic bent missed out on CJ, the most valuable asset in the game right now. It's important to treat players with special talent as unique entities instead of trying to pigeon-hole them into a narrow mind-set.

Narrow minded? It is much more narrow minded to say "CJ did it, so I will ignore the fact taht 90% of them don't." CJ is a freak and doesn't come along very often. If you want to use that math, or lack of, be my guest. Good luck.

I'd be interested to know Best's true weight right now. He looks visibly bulkier up top than he did in his college videos. I'd bet he's close to 205, which is starting to creep into the "acceptable" range of BMI.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't know how many he missed and am not going to bother looking it up. I know he has issues with concussions and I know his body-type does not typically last in the NFL at the RB spot. I suggest you go back and find the article that FBG's did about Best and Spiller over the summer. RBs with their BMI's don't become every-down backs in the NFL. Aside from CJ, it doesn't happen.

Anyone treating BMI with a dogmatic bent missed out on CJ, the most valuable asset in the game right now. It's important to treat players with special talent as unique entities instead of trying to pigeon-hole them into a narrow mind-set.

Narrow minded? It is much more narrow minded to say "CJ did it, so I will ignore the fact taht 90% of them don't." CJ is a freak and doesn't come along very often. If you want to use that math, or lack of, be my guest. Good luck.

Absolutely it's narrow-minded to have your mind made up about a player due only to other players that came before him. It's the definition of narrow-minded.I'm not using math. I'm open minded about Best's future. You know why? Because he's not Jerious Norwood or Leon Washington or Steve Slaton. He's a new player with a different talent level, a different skill-set, a different body, and a different situation. The early returns are awfully promising.

 

[thehornet]

Alright dynasty guys, lets talk Jahvid Best.

Right now, he is at the pinnacle of value. Big hype before season, explosive start (number one player in all of FF in PPR leagues, number 2 in non-ppr, 6TDQB leagues), young, PPR back who gets goalline carries...

I mean it seems like we've found another superstar.

But as much as I loved this guy before the draft and loved the situation he was drafted too, and LOVE the start he has...

I'm starting to seriously worry about his health. The concussions, the injuries...should it be a concern?

Is this guy's value WAY out of line with what he'll bring to the table over the course of a season? I mean, he seemed to be getting beat up pretty good in the last game, and was slow to get up a few times.

Am I over-analyzing things or should selling at an extremely high value a smart move?

As always, it depends on what you can get in return. However, in my opinion unless you are receving Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, or Ray Rice in return (and possibly Jonathan Stewart), then he should not be sold (and you obviously won't be getting those guys back in return...at least not yet). Based on how he looks, I believe he has all the tools to join the previously mentioned players in the top tier. It's definitely not a sure thing, as his extreme lack of patience and inability to let the holes develop is at least something to monitor (although I expect that to correct itself as he gains experience), but I'm not sure any current RB stands a better chance of joining the elite group. You could consider the top tier WR's or QB's, but probably can't get fair value for him right now considering his potential (if he is capable of Peterson/CJ/MJD production, he is worth more than any WR or QB, most likely).Put another way, outside of the top tier of RB's, who would you rather have? Mendenhall doesn't look or feel as "special", Gore is a consideration but the age gap is quite large, DeAngelo Williams has age + Stewart to worry about, Jamaal Charles can't even secure the feature job yet, ditto Beanie on the feature job worry, Steven Jackson is on the backside of his prime and mired in a horrible offense, and Best has looked FAR better than Mathews through 2 games (albeit very small sample size). The one player worth considering is probably Jonathan Stewart, who has his own set of concerns. The injury angle is overblown with Best in my opinion, as he really isn't injury prone. He had 1 major, well publicized injury that everyone was painfully aware of because the highlights were replaied ad nauseum due to the nature of the play (flipping and landing on his head).

He had one great game, and one horrible game. I would trade him, if I could get top value for him. Just about any of the top 10 RBs, including guys like Gore, who are getting a bit older. Big games happen. So do bad games. But when you can trade hype for proven top 10 players, I think you do it, more often than not. Now if you thought Best was a future top 10 player before his huge game, maybe you keep him. I didn't and would trade him in a heartbeat. He is small, injury prone, plays for the Lions, and looked almost as bad as he did great, week one.

he's learning and not nearly as small as some of you think he is. outside of his concussion, how many games did he miss in his college career?

I don't know how many he missed and am not going to bother looking it up. I know he has issues with concussions and I know his body-type does not typically last in the NFL at the RB spot. I suggest you go back and find the article that FBG's did about Best and Spiller over the summer. RBs with their BMI's don't become every-down backs in the NFL. Aside from CJ, it doesn't happen.

this is exactly my point. people just assume things without fact checking. the answer is 0 or 1 ( i dont know if he actually missed 1 game soph year with somthing). he actually had 1 concussion, but you can lable it as concussion "problems" if it makes you feel better. also, telling us he will get hurt because others have isnt exactly sound logic or proof of really anything at all.

 

[shader]

I think he missed one game with an elbow injury or something of the sort.

 

[EBF]

The kind of owners who were likely to spend a high price to acquire Stewart within the past 1-2 years are not the kind of owners who are likely to panic because of two quiet games in which he barely received any opportunities.

If someone drafted Stewart when he came out as a rookie, I'd have to think this is about the time when they are getting fed up. I don't know how to verify this, but at this point, I imagine Stewart is going to get traded this week by a large number of dynasty owners.When your first round pick still isn't getting it done for you 2 games into his 3rd season, the pick isn't working out for you, no matter how good he might be in the future. Again, it comes down to how long you want to put off future success in exchange for current production.Now yes, if someone acquired Stewart at the end of last year or during the off-season, they will be content waiting awhile.But an original Stewart owner has to be getting fed up waiting.

You're falling into the trap of thinking that production = value. Calvin Johnson was 19th in ppg among WRs last season, but he never fell out of the top 2-3 dynasty WR rankings because perception of his value remained sky high. Stewart hasn't produced on par with elite dynasty RBs, but his value has always hovered in their range. In this sense, it's highly inaccurate to say that picking him "isn't working out" for his owners. He has maintained elite trade value throughout his tenure in the NFL. Anyone who has owned hum during this time has had the capability to convert him into an elite scorer via trade or to wait on his production. People still view him as an elite talent destined to shine once he becomes a starter. No one with any sense will be downgrading him this season.

 

[Concept Coop]

Absolutely it's narrow-minded to have your mind made up about a player due only to other players that came before him. It's the definition of narrow-minded.I'm not using math. I'm open minded about Best's future. You know why? Because he's not Jerious Norwood or Leon Washington or Steve Slaton. He's a new player with a different talent level, a different skill-set, a different body, and a different situation. The early returns are awfully promising.

I don't have my mind made up. Fantasy football is a numbers game. Buying low, selling high, understanding risks. I know (because it has been documented) that players his size do not make it as a workhorse RB in the NFL very often. After one amazing game (and one horrible one) I would be looking to sell high. The odds of Best being the next CJ are much lower than Best being the next Steve Slaton. Using those odds, I find an owner that doesn't take these things into account. I trade him to them.I suppose FBG specializes in narrow-minded content. Don't know why you are here.

 

[thehornet]

Absolutely it's narrow-minded to have your mind made up about a player due only to other players that came before him. It's the definition of narrow-minded.I'm not using math. I'm open minded about Best's future. You know why? Because he's not Jerious Norwood or Leon Washington or Steve Slaton. He's a new player with a different talent level, a different skill-set, a different body, and a different situation. The early returns are awfully promising.

Don't know why you are here.

priceless.sorry, couldnt help myself. back to football talk.

 

[humpback]

I don't know how many he missed and am not going to bother looking it up. I know he has issues with concussions and I know his body-type does not typically last in the NFL at the RB spot. I suggest you go back and find the article that FBG's did about Best and Spiller over the summer. RBs with their BMI's don't become every-down backs in the NFL. Aside from CJ, it doesn't happen.

this is exactly my point. people just assume things without fact checking. the answer is 0 or 1 ( i dont know if he actually missed 1 game soph year with somthing). he actually had 1 concussion, but you can lable it as concussion "problems" if it makes you feel better. also, telling us he will get hurt because others have isnt exactly sound logic or proof of really anything at all.

You might want to check the facts yourself...

 

[thehornet]

I don't know how many he missed and am not going to bother looking it up. I know he has issues with concussions and I know his body-type does not typically last in the NFL at the RB spot. I suggest you go back and find the article that FBG's did about Best and Spiller over the summer. RBs with their BMI's don't become every-down backs in the NFL. Aside from CJ, it doesn't happen.

this is exactly my point. people just assume things without fact checking. the answer is 0 or 1 ( i dont know if he actually missed 1 game soph year with somthing). he actually had 1 concussion, but you can lable it as concussion "problems" if it makes you feel better. also, telling us he will get hurt because others have isnt exactly sound logic or proof of really anything at all.

You might want to check the facts yourself...

i did. i said he missed a game his sophmore year. do you have something to add besides nothing?

 

[Concept Coop]

Absolutely it's narrow-minded to have your mind made up about a player due only to other players that came before him. It's the definition of narrow-minded.I'm not using math. I'm open minded about Best's future. You know why? Because he's not Jerious Norwood or Leon Washington or Steve Slaton. He's a new player with a different talent level, a different skill-set, a different body, and a different situation. The early returns are awfully promising.

Don't know why you are here.

priceless.sorry, couldnt help myself. back to football talk.

Why thank you.But if in-depth studies into trends and using the past to project the future as accurately as posible is "narrow-minded", why are you here? ESPN has a FF forum...yahoo too.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

What does everyone think about Josh Freeman? He didn't get anywhere near the level of hype as fellow 2009 1st rounders Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. But his running ability combined with what looks to be some nice young weapons (Mike Williams, Winslow, eventually Benn), and a potentially improving team leads me to think he might be the real deal dynasty wise.

 

[shader]

What does everyone think about Josh Freeman? He didn't get anywhere near the level of hype as fellow 2009 1st rounders Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. But his running ability combined with what looks to be some nice young weapons (Mike Williams, Winslow, eventually Benn), and a potentially improving team leads me to think he might be the real deal dynasty wise.

Most underrated young fantasy QB going right now.

 

[Go deep]

Absolutely it's narrow-minded to have your mind made up about a player due only to other players that came before him. It's the definition of narrow-minded.I'm not using math. I'm open minded about Best's future. You know why? Because he's not Jerious Norwood or Leon Washington or Steve Slaton. He's a new player with a different talent level, a different skill-set, a different body, and a different situation. The early returns are awfully promising.

Don't know why you are here.

priceless.sorry, couldnt help myself. back to football talk.

Why thank you.But if in-depth studies into trends and using the past to project the future as accurately as posible is "narrow-minded", why are you here? ESPN has a FF forum...yahoo too.

Using past trends instead of judging a player as an indibidual is a good way to miss out on elite talent....and very narrow-minded.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG - loved your waiver wire posting last week. When will it be out this weekend and future weekends? Sunday or Monday night?

It'll always be out by Monday Night at the absolute latest. If I'm not too tired after SNF, I'll try to knock out a position or two Sunday Night. Otherwise, I'll knock everything out on Monday, schedule permitting. Absolute worst case scenario would be finishing them while watching the game Monday night. No matter what, though, all positional rankings will be updated by the end of MNF, guaranteed. That gives me all day Tuesday to listen to everyone's responses and suggestions and incorporate them throughout the day to produce a semi-final weekly ranking list for Wednesday Waivers.Speaking of, QB rankings have been updated for the week, and the change log is available here: http://bit.ly/aB6wZ4.

That is not true at all. If Player A scores 20 points a year for 5 years, he is worth much more than a player that scores 10 points a year for 10 years. The player scoring 10 points is much easier to find, replace, and may not even be worth a start some years.

Assuming you meant the same points per year, I still disagree with you. As an owner, you should know when you are in the hunt and when you are not. If I am competing this year, Player A's 20 points over the next 5, is absolutely worth more than players B's 20 points for 5 years, starting in two years. You are more accurately able to predict and control other variables surrounding your team.

If you don't value production this year, more than 3 years from now, I don't know how you will ever win. I have never seen it work out that way. In just about every league I have been in, a contending team needs a bump over the top. This usually happens by hampering future flexability some what. Using your draft pick example, there is a reason it will cost you a 2nd rounder to swap 1sts, a year apart.

It sounds like you haven't been following the discussion very well. I've already posted that when I say "points" I'm really just using it as a short-hand metric for "value". You could replace the word "points" with "VBD", or replace the entire concept with PPG, or Points Scored in Games Where Listed As A Likely Fantasy Starter, or some graduated value system, or whatever measure of value you want. The reason I used "points" is because all of those metrics are flawed in one way or another, so rather than going off on a huge tangent about how to measure a player's true value to his owner over multiple years, I decided to use a quick and dirty proxy that everyone understands.Second off, again, I've already addressed the issue about when the points come having value at least three times now. Yes, roster synchronicity is incredibly important, and it's better to alternate 1st and last place finishes than it is to consistently finish 4th. With that said, *ASSUMING ALL ELSE IS EQUAL*, trading a player who scores more (points/VBD/PPG/weighted points above a rolling weekly baseline/quality starts/whatever measure of value you decide to use) over a long timeline for a player who scores fewer (points/VBD/PPG/WPAaRWB/QS/whatever) over a long timeline always results in scoring fewer (points/VBD/PPG/WPAaRWB/QS/whatever) over a long timeline.

Future production is no less valuable than present production. It is less predictable, and it may or may not fit better within your team's natural production cycles, but it is not less valuable. Points are points are points are points*, regardless of when they come.

*And by points, I mean points/VBD/PPG/weighted points above a rolling weekly baseline/quality starts/whatever measure of value you decide to use

Narrow minded? It is much more narrow minded to say "CJ did it, so I will ignore the fact taht 90% of them don't." CJ is a freak and doesn't come along very often. If you want to use that math, or lack of, be my guest. Good luck.

I think it's a bit narrow minded to say "this predicts success 90% of the time, and that's good enough for me, so I'm not going to make any effort to improve upon that metric at all". Instead of accepting the fact that BMI is going to be wrong on uberstuds like CJ, why not try to figure out why BMI was wrong about CJ and use that knowledge to avoid missing out on the next big uberstud, too?

Can we put the Foster vs Stewart comparisons to bed right now? I don't care how good Stewart is going to be in the future, he's falling off the map right now in 2010. The immediate gains that Foster gives are far too much to even consider.

I mean, MAYBE if you know your 2010 season is completely over, then maybe you pull the trigger...

And I can see a scenario where you have Stewart, and you decide to hold, rather than trade him for Foster.

But I can't imagine how any owner that had Foster would give him up for Stewart straight up. Stewart's value is plummeting right now. It'll start to climb again once we hit mid-season, he gets healthy and more teams start playing for 2011. But for now, I'd stay far, far away.

That's ridiculous. What happened in the past week that would possibly have changed a single thing in the Foster/Stewart debate? Foster rushed 19 times for 69 yards. Stewart rushed 8 times for 43 yards. Foster challenged for Stewart's NFL record for most rushing yards in a back's first 3 starts, and Foster ultimately fell short. Absolutely nothing has changed for either player.At the end of the day, I think the idea that points scored today are more valuable than points scored tomorrow is crazy, so I wouldn't trade Stewart for Foster. You disagree, so you wouldn't trade Foster for Stewart. In other words, everything is exactly the same as it was a week ago. Nothing is being put to bed.

 

[HenryMuto]

Looks like I missed the boat on Best and McFadden. I had Best all wrapped up with the #4 pick in my 2010 rookie draft already knowing the top 3 picks were going to be Mathews, Dez, Spiller. I really liked him too and so did Chris then I made a deal during the draft where I basically gave up Best for Greene straight up. Stuff like this can kill you for years. I really liked Best too but was not 100% sold on him. I even felt buyer's remorse the day after and ever day since and after the 1st 2 weeks wow it looks really bad. Having Stewart and Greene this year is going to make it awfully impossible to win not to mention having Dez.

I feel like there is no chance of trading Greene and getting anything back what I paid for him (3rd round start up pick).

Anyone else here feeling the concern I am over Greene ? He was ranked pretty high around these parts earlier this summer just wondering if anyone else is worried about him like me.

Also on McFadden I remember posting when I was on the clock with my 9th round pick but no one really liked him that much then in August when I was drafting.

Looks like I missed out a really good back (a former #1 fantasy pick) for a modest 9th round price.

The thing about McFadden is how will Bush coming back affect him ?

Too bad these teams don't do RB by commmittee by running 1 of them into the ground then when they get hurt the 2nd one comes in instead of splitting each game.

 

[EBF]

Using past trends instead of judging a player as an indibidual is a good way to miss out on elite talent....and very narrow-minded.

They are not mutually exclusive approaches. In fact, the best approach is probably one that incorporates trends, but also recognizes that exceptional individuals can violate them.

 

[Go deep]

SSOG - loved your waiver wire posting last week. When will it be out this weekend and future weekends? Sunday or Monday night?

It'll always be out by Monday Night at the absolute latest. If I'm not too tired after SNF, I'll try to knock out a position or two Sunday Night. Otherwise, I'll knock everything out on Monday, schedule permitting. Absolute worst case scenario would be finishing them while watching the game Monday night. No matter what, though, all positional rankings will be updated by the end of MNF, guaranteed. That gives me all day Tuesday to listen to everyone's responses and suggestions and incorporate them throughout the day to produce a semi-final weekly ranking list for Wednesday Waivers.Speaking of, QB rankings have been updated for the week, and the change log is available here: http://bit.ly/aB6wZ4.

That is not true at all. If Player A scores 20 points a year for 5 years, he is worth much more than a player that scores 10 points a year for 10 years. The player scoring 10 points is much easier to find, replace, and may not even be worth a start some years.

Assuming you meant the same points per year, I still disagree with you. As an owner, you should know when you are in the hunt and when you are not. If I am competing this year, Player A's 20 points over the next 5, is absolutely worth more than players B's 20 points for 5 years, starting in two years. You are more accurately able to predict and control other variables surrounding your team.

If you don't value production this year, more than 3 years from now, I don't know how you will ever win. I have never seen it work out that way. In just about every league I have been in, a contending team needs a bump over the top. This usually happens by hampering future flexability some what. Using your draft pick example, there is a reason it will cost you a 2nd rounder to swap 1sts, a year apart.

It sounds like you haven't been following the discussion very well. I've already posted that when I say "points" I'm really just using it as a short-hand metric for "value". You could replace the word "points" with "VBD", or replace the entire concept with PPG, or Points Scored in Games Where Listed As A Likely Fantasy Starter, or some graduated value system, or whatever measure of value you want. The reason I used "points" is because all of those metrics are flawed in one way or another, so rather than going off on a huge tangent about how to measure a player's true value to his owner over multiple years, I decided to use a quick and dirty proxy that everyone understands.Second off, again, I've already addressed the issue about when the points come having value at least three times now. Yes, roster synchronicity is incredibly important, and it's better to alternate 1st and last place finishes than it is to consistently finish 4th. With that said, *ASSUMING ALL ELSE IS EQUAL*, trading a player who scores more (points/VBD/PPG/weighted points above a rolling weekly baseline/quality starts/whatever measure of value you decide to use) over a long timeline for a player who scores fewer (points/VBD/PPG/WPAaRWB/QS/whatever) over a long timeline always results in scoring fewer (points/VBD/PPG/WPAaRWB/QS/whatever) over a long timeline.

Future production is no less valuable than present production. It is less predictable, and it may or may not fit better within your team's natural production cycles, but it is not less valuable. Points are points are points are points*, regardless of when they come.

*And by points, I mean points/VBD/PPG/weighted points above a rolling weekly baseline/quality starts/whatever measure of value you decide to use

Narrow minded? It is much more narrow minded to say "CJ did it, so I will ignore the fact taht 90% of them don't." CJ is a freak and doesn't come along very often. If you want to use that math, or lack of, be my guest. Good luck.

I think it's a bit narrow minded to say "this predicts success 90% of the time, and that's good enough for me, so I'm not going to make any effort to improve upon that metric at all". Instead of accepting the fact that BMI is going to be wrong on uberstuds like CJ, why not try to figure out why BMI was wrong about CJ and use that knowledge to avoid missing out on the next big uberstud, too?

Can we put the Foster vs Stewart comparisons to bed right now? I don't care how good Stewart is going to be in the future, he's falling off the map right now in 2010. The immediate gains that Foster gives are far too much to even consider.

I mean, MAYBE if you know your 2010 season is completely over, then maybe you pull the trigger...

And I can see a scenario where you have Stewart, and you decide to hold, rather than trade him for Foster.

But I can't imagine how any owner that had Foster would give him up for Stewart straight up. Stewart's value is plummeting right now. It'll start to climb again once we hit mid-season, he gets healthy and more teams start playing for 2011. But for now, I'd stay far, far away.

That's ridiculous. What happened in the past week that would possibly have changed a single thing in the Foster/Stewart debate? Foster rushed 19 times for 69 yards. Stewart rushed 8 times for 43 yards. Foster challenged for Stewart's NFL record for most rushing yards in a back's first 3 starts, and Foster ultimately fell short. Absolutely nothing has changed for either player.At the end of the day, I think the idea that points scored today are more valuable than points scored tomorrow is crazy, so I wouldn't trade Stewart for Foster. You disagree, so you wouldn't trade Foster for Stewart. In other words, everything is exactly the same as it was a week ago. Nothing is being put to bed.

I dont always agree with SSOG, but he is spot on here.

 

[Concept Coop]

Using past trends instead of judging a player as an indibidual is a good way to miss out on elite talent....and very narrow-minded.

Everyone missed out on CJ. Not one exec in the NFL knew how great CJ was, or he would have gone #1. Everyone felt as though the Titans reached with that pick. Not even the Titans knew he was going to be this good, because they wanted Felix Jones. The chances of you or I finding an uberstud, when NFL scouts, coaches and execs miss, are slim to none. But if you think you can, be my guest. If you think Best is the next uberstud, you should have him on every dynasty roster you have, right? Giving up anything short of AP, MJD, and CJ to get him.Narrow-minded is ignoring the trend. If you want to value it differently than others, fine. But ignoring it is silly.

 

[Go deep]

Using past trends instead of judging a player as an indibidual is a good way to miss out on elite talent....and very narrow-minded.

They are not mutually exclusive approaches. In fact, the best approach is probably one that incorporates trends, but also recognizes that exceptional individuals can violate them.

Trends should come into play, but i think can do more harm than good in some cases.

 

[Go deep]

Using past trends instead of judging a player as an indibidual is a good way to miss out on elite talent....and very narrow-minded.

Everyone missed out on CJ. Not one exec in the NFL knew how great CJ was, or he would have gone #1. Everyone felt as though the Titans reached with that pick. Not even the Titans knew he was going to be this good, because they wanted Felix Jones. The chances of you or I finding an uberstud, when NFL scouts, coaches and execs miss, are slim to none. But if you think you can, be my guest. If you think Best is the next uberstud, you should have him on every dynasty roster you have, right? Giving up anything short of AP, MJD, and CJ to get him.Narrow-minded is ignoring the trend. If you want to value it differently than others, fine. But ignoring it is silly.

I dont ignore trends, i just dont let them make my decision for me.

 

[SSOG]

If someone drafted Stewart when he came out as a rookie, I'd have to think this is about the time when they are getting fed up. I don't know how to verify this, but at this point, I imagine Stewart is going to get traded this week by a large number of dynasty owners.When your first round pick still isn't getting it done for you 2 games into his 3rd season, the pick isn't working out for you, no matter how good he might be in the future. Again, it comes down to how long you want to put off future success in exchange for current production.Now yes, if someone acquired Stewart at the end of last year or during the off-season, they will be content waiting awhile.But an original Stewart owner has to be getting fed up waiting.

I'm someone who drafted Stewart as a rookie. I don't know why I'd be getting fed up because 2 weeks into a season where I expected him to start slowly (as he recovered from an injury) and be the lesser portion of a timeshare, Stewart has... started slowly and been the lesser portion of a timeshare. Stewart has been exactly what I expected him to be. Why would I get fed up with that? If I didn't want a slow-starting RB2, I would have traded him before the season when his value was sky-high. Or I would have traded him last year when his value was sky high, or when he was a rookie when his value was sky-high. I could have traded him at any point. I have no clue why this week would have magically been the point where I decided to trade him. What changed this week that might cause me to re-evaluate my expectations? Absolutely nothing.

You might want to check the facts yourself...

i did. i said he missed a game his sophmore year. do you have something to add besides nothing?

He already added something. He told you that your facts were wrong. Instead of getting defensive, denying it, and attacking the messenger, why not either double-check your facts or ask (politely) for someone to explain to you why your facts were wrong?In case you're wondering what facts you should be checking, I'd start with your claim that Jahvid Best only had one concussion.

What does everyone think about Josh Freeman? He didn't get anywhere near the level of hype as fellow 2009 1st rounders Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. But his running ability combined with what looks to be some nice young weapons (Mike Williams, Winslow, eventually Benn), and a potentially improving team leads me to think he might be the real deal dynasty wise.

He got a strong value bump in my weekly update. If he continues his strong play, it will just be the first of many. He's definitely looking very good, although I'm hesitant to anoint him, because Flacco and Ryan both looked very good but have struggled to take that next step.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think it's a bit narrow minded to say "this predicts success 90% of the time, and that's good enough for me, so I'm not going to make any effort to improve upon that metric at all". Instead of accepting the fact that BMI is going to be wrong on uberstuds like CJ, why not try to figure out why BMI was wrong about CJ and use that knowledge to avoid missing out on the next big uberstud, too?

32 NFL teams have x number of scouts that watch x number of hours of x amount of film on x numbers of players. All 32 teams, with all of their resources, failed to see that CJ was an uberstud. Otherwise, he would have gone number one, and teams would have been trading up to get him.Not only were all of them wrong, but I didn't see ONE single mock draft with CJ going first. All of us got it wrong too. Not only is CJ a one a generation freak, his situation is too. If you want try to catch that lightening in a bottle, go ahead and draft Best #1. Go ahead and value him as the next uberstud. But acknowledging the fact that history suggest that Best is a future RBBC member, is not narrow-minded.

 

[humpback]

I don't know how many he missed and am not going to bother looking it up. I know he has issues with concussions and I know his body-type does not typically last in the NFL at the RB spot. I suggest you go back and find the article that FBG's did about Best and Spiller over the summer. RBs with their BMI's don't become every-down backs in the NFL. Aside from CJ, it doesn't happen.

this is exactly my point. people just assume things without fact checking. the answer is 0 or 1 ( i dont know if he actually missed 1 game soph year with somthing). he actually had 1 concussion, but you can lable it as concussion "problems" if it makes you feel better. also, telling us he will get hurt because others have isnt exactly sound logic or proof of really anything at all.

You might want to check the facts yourself...

i did. i said he missed a game his sophmore year. do you have something to add besides nothing?

Just that he missed 3 games his freshman season due to a hip injury, and that was his 2nd concussion in 2 weeks. Nice "fact checking".

 

[Instinctive]

Using past trends instead of judging a player as an indibidual is a good way to miss out on elite talent....and very narrow-minded.

Everyone missed out on CJ. Not one exec in the NFL knew how great CJ was, or he would have gone #1. Everyone felt as though the Titans reached with that pick. Not even the Titans knew he was going to be this good, because they wanted Felix Jones. The chances of you or I finding an uberstud, when NFL scouts, coaches and execs miss, are slim to none. But if you think you can, be my guest. If you think Best is the next uberstud, you should have him on every dynasty roster you have, right? Giving up anything short of AP, MJD, and CJ to get him.Narrow-minded is ignoring the trend. If you want to value it differently than others, fine. But ignoring it is silly.

I feel like this specific thread called CJ, especially F&L as the conductor of the hype train... We took him early. We built him up. He was our call. We looked at an individual player and said he might be a good call as an exception to a prior rule.It appears as though the same call has been made on Best, and it could also be proven correct. Some of us have had Best pegged as this type of explosive playmaker since his first years at Cal (EBF and myself at the least) and this is the reason we come to this thread.The people here aren't in the business of finding widespread trends and blindly applying them. We find trends and then see why they did or didn't work, and if they will or won't work with each player.

 

[SSOG]

Using past trends instead of judging a player as an indibidual is a good way to miss out on elite talent....and very narrow-minded.

They are not mutually exclusive approaches. In fact, the best approach is probably one that incorporates trends, but also recognizes that exceptional individuals can violate them.

More than that, exceptional individuals *MUST* violate them. Just look at the word "exceptional". Players who are EXCEPTIONal absolutely *must* be the EXCEPTION to the rule.

Everyone missed out on CJ. Not one exec in the NFL knew how great CJ was, or he would have gone #1. Everyone felt as though the Titans reached with that pick. Not even the Titans knew he was going to be this good, because they wanted Felix Jones. The chances of you or I finding an uberstud, when NFL scouts, coaches and execs miss, are slim to none. But if you think you can, be my guest. If you think Best is the next uberstud, you should have him on every dynasty roster you have, right? Giving up anything short of AP, MJD, and CJ to get him.Narrow-minded is ignoring the trend. If you want to value it differently than others, fine. But ignoring it is silly.

No, not everyone missed out on CJ. Lots of people were high on him before he was drafted, and even more became high on him the second he entered camps.I also think it's silly that you play the "do you think you know better than scouts and GMs" card just one post after playing the "BMI predicts busts 90% of the time!" card. Do you think scouts and GMs are unaware of this BMI thing you speak of? If you use BMI over a scout or GM's judgment, isn't that just a perfect example of you thinking you know better than scouts or GMs?