SSOG said:
EBF said:
It looks close right now because McFadden is in the NFL and producing, but I think you would eventually regret passing on Ingram. He's a bad man:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?categoryId=2...&id=5589012
Look at the cuts and the burst on that run starting at 0:28. That's Pro Bowl stuff.
Pro Bowl Stuff:[proh bohl stuhf]
-
noun
1. skills, production, or talent which differentiates a player from his peers by a great enough degree to warrant an invitation to Hawaii.
2. what Darren McFadden has been showing every single week this season.
Seems silly to me that you're recommending passing on McFadden for Ingram because a
college highlight clip of Mark Ingram is showing him demonstrating "pro bowl stuff"... while actual NFL game film of McFadden is showing the exact same thing against much stronger competition.
Only I don't think McFadden is showing Pro Bowl talent. I know this is hard for some people to fathom, but I genuinely don't believe that Darren McFadden is an above average NFL starting RB. To me he's a guy with lots of flaws and a few nice qualities. He has looked that way regardless of whether his stat line has been 21 carries for 111 yards or 12 carries for 35 yards. He has looked like the exact same guy. I have talked
in the past about how results and performance are two different things.
EBF said:
I play a lot of poker. In poker it is possible to play perfectly over a large sample size and still lose money because of variance. It is also possible to play terribly over a large sample size and still win money because of variance. Results are an imperfect indicator of performance. This leads people to sometimes confuse a correct decision with a mistake because of the results. This is called "results oriented" thinking. When someone is being results oriented, they're confusing results with performance. I think you're bordering on that here.
The stats a player produces (or doesn't produce) aren't always a perfect indicator of how well he plays. We have seen numerous guys like Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, and Anthony Thomas post gaudy stats over a fairly large sample size. If all you had done was looked at their numbers, you might have reached the conclusion that they were elite talents, but if you had qualitatively evaluated their performance then maybe you would've realized that they were mediocre players benefiting from circumstance to ride a wave of fluke production. According to your line of thinking, it would've been foolish to advocate ranking Adrian Peterson ahead of Julius Jones in 2004. After all, Jones was "showing the exact same thing against much stronger competition" while Peterson was just a prospect dominating amateurs. Thing is, even though Jones was putting up stats against NFL competition, he wasn't "showing the exact same thing." Peterson had abilities that Jones didn't possess. This was something that could only be detected qualitatively, not through a stat sheet.
I believe that sound player analysis involves a mixture of quantitative and qualitative work. If all you do is look at the stats, you'll fall for every Braylon Edwards, Julius Jones, and Derek Anderson who comes along and plays over his head for a while. However, if you're able to add a qualitative element to your analysis, you might recognize cases of players being over or undervalued based on discrepancies between their talent level and their results. Sometimes good players produce crappy stats. Sometimes crappy players produce good stats. I don't claim to be perfect at making accurate qualitative judgments of players and prospects, but that doesn't stop me from trying to form a solid opinion of a player's skills independent of his production.
In the case of McFadden, my qualitative opinion is that he's still a very flawed back despite his recent surge in production. He actually looks exactly the same as he has always looked. I find it silly that because he has had a few good statistical games against NFL defenses, I should suddenly be required to rank him below players who look clearly superior to me. My qualitative opinions tell me that Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and Jonathan Stewart are all better running backs than Darren McFadden. Does the fact that McFadden is the only one of the group currently producing useful stats in the NFL somehow nullify this? No. He just happens to be the flavor of the week because things are going his way right now. Last year everyone would've rather had Stewart. A year from now everyone will rather have Ingram. People are fickle and myopic. When attempting to gauge a player's long term value, I try not to let the short term results sway my judgment. On any given game day I'm more concerned with how a player looks than with what his stat line happens to read. I think the former is a far more important indicator of ability.
McFadden still gets an emphatic "meh" from me.