Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[corpcow]

Seriously? Your argument for Felix being able to be a workhorse is that "most runningbacks can handle 20 carries a game?" First, if that was true - why aren't there more workhorse backs? But more importantly.... all evidence points to the opposite. 20+ carries a game takes its toll on any back... and all evidence with Felix shows that he can't shoulder LESS than 20 carries a game.

As I said - Felix is a dynamic NFL player, but I think it's a mistake to assume he's going to be a 20+ carry back ever in his career.

Why aren't there more? Are you asking me why RBBC's are prevalent? I am not sure what you are asking, as you answer your own question: "20+ carries a game takes its toll on any back... "What evidence shows that he can't shoulder 20 carries a game? His injuries, which had nothing to do with workload and could have happened to anyone? The fact that he played next to two-time Heisman candidate DMC in college? The fact that he was drafted to a team in a pro-bowl RB, to be a COP to said back in today's NFL, that dictates that unless you are Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, or a small handful of others, you are one of 2 or 3 RBs splitting carries?

I don't know that he will ever be a 20 carry a game back either. Actually, I think you are right to doubt that. But I think he could be a 15/game guy, which would put him at 1,200 rushing yards a season, on top of 400 receiving and whatever touchdowns he scores, with only 5 YPC and 25 rec yards a game - very reasonable.

What I'm trying to say is that most backs can't handle a 20+ carry workload for an extended period of time and still be healthy/productive. A RB takes a lot of punish, and there's a reason that the workhorse backs are hard to find. To put it in perspective - 20+ carries per game is a 320+ pace. Since 2002, this has been done 45 times out of a possible 256 times (8 seasons, 32 teams), and only 12 players have done it more than once (and many of those names are the guys who were studs and fell off the map after a few seasns like LJ, Portis, Edge, Ricky, etc).In other words - the assumption that he can be a 20+ carry back unless proven otherwise is wrong.

In this case, whether it's for a reason or just circumstance/luck as you suggest, we have nothing showing us he can hold up. In fact, the only evidence we have (his injury history and how he is viewed by coaches, as previously discussed) suggests he is NOT one of the few who can handle such a load (at least for more than one season).

 

[benm3218]

Seriously? Your argument for Felix being able to be a workhorse is that "most runningbacks can handle 20 carries a game?" First, if that was true - why aren't there more workhorse backs? But more importantly.... all evidence points to the opposite. 20+ carries a game takes its toll on any back... and all evidence with Felix shows that he can't shoulder LESS than 20 carries a game.

As I said - Felix is a dynamic NFL player, but I think it's a mistake to assume he's going to be a 20+ carry back ever in his career.

Why aren't there more? Are you asking me why RBBC's are prevalent? I am not sure what you are asking, as you answer your own question: "20+ carries a game takes its toll on any back... "What evidence shows that he can't shoulder 20 carries a game? His injuries, which had nothing to do with workload and could have happened to anyone? The fact that he played next to two-time Heisman candidate DMC in college? The fact that he was drafted to a team in a pro-bowl RB, to be a COP to said back in today's NFL, that dictates that unless you are Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, or a small handful of others, you are one of 2 or 3 RBs splitting carries?

I don't know that he will ever be a 20 carry a game back either. Actually, I think you are right to doubt that. But I think he could be a 15/game guy, which would put him at 1,200 rushing yards a season, on top of 400 receiving and whatever touchdowns he scores, with only 5 YPC and 25 rec yards a game - very reasonable.

What I'm trying to say is that most backs can't handle a 20+ carry workload for an extended period of time and still be healthy/productive. A RB takes a lot of punish, and there's a reason that the workhorse backs are hard to find. To put it in perspective - 20+ carries per game is a 320+ pace. Since 2002, this has been done 45 times out of a possible 256 times (8 seasons, 32 teams), and only 12 players have done it more than once (and many of those names are the guys who were studs and fell off the map after a few seasns like LJ, Portis, Edge, Ricky, etc).In other words - the assumption that he can be a 20+ carry back unless proven otherwise is wrong.

In this case, whether it's for a reason or just circumstance/luck as you suggest, we have nothing showing us he can hold up. In fact, the only evidence we have (his injury history and how he is viewed by coaches, as previously discussed) suggests he is NOT one of the few who can handle such a load (at least for more than one season).

Very good posting. I had given up the argument as it feels like talking to a brick wall. But, this was worded very nicely and intelligently.

 

[Concept Coop]

What I'm trying to say is that most backs can't handle a 20+ carry workload for an extended period of time and still be healthy/productive. A RB takes a lot of punish, and there's a reason that the workhorse backs are hard to find. To put it in perspective - 20+ carries per game is a 320+ pace. Since 2002, this has been done 45 times out of a possible 256 times (8 seasons, 32 teams), and only 12 players have done it more than once (and many of those names are the guys who were studs and fell off the map after a few seasns like LJ, Portis, Edge, Ricky, etc).

In other words - the assumption that he can be a 20+ carry back unless proven otherwise is wrong.

In this case, whether it's for a reason or just circumstance/luck as you suggest, we have nothing showing us he can hold up. In fact, the only evidence we have (his injury history and how he is viewed by coaches, as previously discussed) suggests he is NOT one of the few who can handle such a load (at least for more than one season).

Okay, I can agree with what you are saying. My argument was that Felix can handle 20/game, not 20/game for an extended period of time. I am not talking about wearing down from too many carries during multiple seasons, or even one full season. I am talking about Felix Jones' body not being able to carry the ball 20 times, as though his body is going to break at 19. I know that sounds silly, but that is the argument I am getting from SSOG and others. The particular argument that I found silly was this: "Felix has never carried the ball more than 16 times, meaning he can't. But Jahvid Best can, because he has done it before."

With the above argument, one suggest that because Jahvid Best has been given the ball 20 times in one game, that simple fact indicates he can handle doing so. Because Felix has not, he can't. It ignores the fact that Best has not done it fore more than one season, or even for an entire season. And if a team's sole goal was to give the ball to a single RB 20 times, they could do so whenever they wanted to. That means that using number of carries alone to point to a player's ability to carry a load is foolish.

So back to your point, I agree. I would not assume that Felix is ever going to be a 300 carry a year guy, and, as you said, assuming he will or can is illogical. But that has nothing to do with the fact that he has not been given 20 carries in a single game, to this point. Nor does it have anything to do with the fact that he is in a RBBC and Marion Barber was a pro bowl, starting RB when Felix was drafted. I don't think LeSean McCoy will ever be a 300+ carry guy, but he is the main guy in Philly. I think Barber can be the main guy in Dallas, and put up RB1 numbers in the process, as McCoy is.

As far as his coaches, and their use of him goes, the ARE using him as the main back right now - Barber as the COP guy. The number of carries between the two shows that. They just simply don't run the ball enough for Felix's total number of carries to be that of a RB1.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I just don't understand the logic behind statements like this: "He hasn't had 20 carries yet, so he can't handle the load." Hello! He is the backup/COP cog in a RBBC at the moment, and has been to this point. What do you expect? But the fact remains that his weight suggests that he can carry the load. And until he shows us that he can't, why is it logical to assume he can't?

His coaches dont think he can, therefore he wont ever show you if he can or cant

Coop - what has Felix Jones done to show you to suggest that he can handle a 20 carry per game load?He was not a feature/workhorse in college - and never had more than 154 carries in college. In two and a half years in the pros, he has 250 total carries and never more than 16 carries in a game, and yet he has battled both major and nagging injuries, missed much of his rookie season and a couple of games last year. If I recall, he landed on IR because he tore ligaments while rehabbing a hammy injury. There's no denying he's dynamic with the ball in his hands, but I think it's perfectly logical to question his ability to hold up as a 20+ carry back - and this has NOTHING to do with weight.And unlike a guy like Bradshaw, he hasn't shown he can/will play (and play well) while banged up, which gives me more reason to question whether he can ever be a full-time back.

Most runningbacks can handle 20 carries a game. Just because he hasn't, I don't think means he can't. Because most can, I think logic suggests assuming one can, until proven otherwise. What is perfectly logical about it? He never got major careers in college due to Darren McFadden. The fact that he got as many as he did is a tribute to him as a college player. McFadden was amazing, even in the SEC. If he wen't to Notre Dame (to pick a random school), he would have had plenty of carries, and would have been the main guy. He is getting more carries than Barber right now. The only reason he isn't getting a great number, is because the Cowboys aren't running the ball enough, mostly due to their offensive line. And, for the record, I would much rather have Bradshaw in a dynasty league, because I will take 2 seasons of top 10 production right now, rather than hope, or even think I will get 2-3 later. I like Bradshaw as a player and just traded a pretty penny for him a few weeks ago.My talk about Bradshaw's injury concern is his legs, which have caused him to play injured his whole career. Unlike Felix's hamstring, Bradshaw's legs will never be 100%. Because of their build (extremely bow) he is always going to incure extra strain as long as he is playing football. That is why I would be more surprised to see Felix's career cut short than Bradshaw's. Well, that and their running styles.

FWIW, I did a study for Draftguys looking at the number of touches in their last college season of RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds from 2001 - 2008. Jones had 11.46 touches per game in 2007, which was the lowest of 60 RBs studied other than Brian Leonard at Rutgers in 2006.

 

[Concept Coop]

Very good posting. I had given up the argument as it feels like talking to a brick wall. But, this was worded very nicely and intelligently.

So because I don't agree with you, I am a brick wall? Huh. Life must be frustrating for you - so many opinions!

 

[Concept Coop]

FWIW, I did a study for Draftguys looking at the number of touches in their last college season of RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds from 2001 - 2008. Jones had 11.46 touches per game in 2007, which was the lowest of 60 RBs studied other than Brian Leonard at Rutgers in 2006.

Not to insult you, but I don't know what it's worth. How many of them played with a two-time Heisman candidate? Lets use Julius Jones, who was drafted in the 2nd round during that period. Felix, being the more talented back, would have been the main guy in Notre Dame, and would have averaged a lot more than 12 touches a game. What does that say about Julius, in relation to Felix? Now replace Julius with Tate, or any number of backs drafted in the 1st 3 rounds that were not as good as Felix, even as college backs - what really does it prove? Do you think the coaches at ARK were worried about Felix's health long term, or do you think they wanted to give Darren McFadden the ball as much as possible? My guess is the later.

 

[Whitney26]

The Bears picked Harvey Unga of BYU last year in the Supplemental Draft. Unfortunately, he got hurt and was placed on IR. He's on my Taxi Squad in my league, and I was wondering if anyone had any information on him? I can't seem to find anything current.

 

[benm3218]

Very good posting. I had given up the argument as it feels like talking to a brick wall. But, this was worded very nicely and intelligently.

So because I don't agree with you, I am a brick wall? Huh. Life must be frustrating for you - so many opinions!

Nope, not all. Adds to the spice in life. By the way, I'm glad you agreed with corpcow in your last response. No one here thinks Felix would break at 20 carries in just one game. That's silly. We do however think he could not handle workhorse duties for a nice span of time. So since workhorse carries on a random game at some point are pretty meaningless that makes him less valuable to me.You just agreed that he is not a 300 carry a year guy if i read you right. So, I really don't understand what you've been arguing about. Hence, my brickwall comment.

 

[Concept Coop]

The Bears picked Harvey Unga of BYU last year in the Supplemental Draft. Unfortunately, he got hurt and was placed on IR. He's on my Taxi Squad in my league, and I was wondering if anyone had any information on him? I can't seem to find anything current.

Living in Utah, I watched quite a bit of him. It is hard for me to write off his value, because he was a monster against other college players. I liked him more than Luke Staley (another BYU RB), who won the Doak Walker award. That said, I don't have any hope for the guy, in the NFL. He just doesn't have enough burst to get anything beyond the initial hole, if there. Even big guys like Brandon Jacobs need burst, and we are seeing what happens when it starts to fade. The one positive is that the Bears liked him enough to use a pretty good draft pick on him - a 4th if I remember correctly. He is big, strong, and can catch. Bun in the NFL, every one is big and strong. As for any info regarding his impression on the Bears, I don't have anything to offer. I haven't heard a peep since the injury.

 

[corpcow]

What I'm trying to say is that most backs can't handle a 20+ carry workload for an extended period of time and still be healthy/productive. A RB takes a lot of punish, and there's a reason that the workhorse backs are hard to find. To put it in perspective - 20+ carries per game is a 320+ pace. Since 2002, this has been done 45 times out of a possible 256 times (8 seasons, 32 teams), and only 12 players have done it more than once (and many of those names are the guys who were studs and fell off the map after a few seasns like LJ, Portis, Edge, Ricky, etc).

In other words - the assumption that he can be a 20+ carry back unless proven otherwise is wrong.

In this case, whether it's for a reason or just circumstance/luck as you suggest, we have nothing showing us he can hold up. In fact, the only evidence we have (his injury history and how he is viewed by coaches, as previously discussed) suggests he is NOT one of the few who can handle such a load (at least for more than one season).

Okay, I can agree with what you are saying. My argument was that Felix can handle 20/game, not 20/game for an extended period of time. I am not talking about wearing down from too many carries during multiple seasons, or even one full season. I am talking about Felix Jones' body not being able to carry the ball 20 times, as though his body is going to break at 19. I know that sounds silly, but that is the argument I am getting from SSOG and others. The particular argument that I found silly was this: "Felix has never carried the ball more than 16 times, meaning he can't. But Jahvid Best can, because he has done it before."

With the above argument, one suggest that because Jahvid Best has been given the ball 20 times in one game, that simple fact indicates he can handle doing so. Because Felix has not, he can't. It ignores the fact that Best has not done it fore more than one season, or even for an entire season. And if a team's sole goal was to give the ball to a single RB 20 times, they could do so whenever they wanted to. That means that using number of carries alone to point to a player's ability to carry a load is foolish.

So back to your point, I agree. I would not assume that Felix is ever going to be a 300 carry a year guy, and, as you said, assuming he will or can is illogical. But that has nothing to do with the fact that he has not been given 20 carries in a single game, to this point. Nor does it have anything to do with the fact that he is in a RBBC and Marion Barber was a pro bowl, starting RB when Felix was drafted. I don't think LeSean McCoy will ever be a 300+ carry guy, but he is the main guy in Philly. I think Barber can be the main guy in Dallas, and put up RB1 numbers in the process, as McCoy is.

As far as his coaches, and their use of him goes, the ARE using him as the main back right now - Barber as the COP guy. The number of carries between the two shows that. They just simply don't run the ball enough for Felix's total number of carries to be that of a RB1.

I don't want to speak for SSOG or others - but I was under the impression they were talking "20 carries per game" as an average. If we're talking about ever having 20 carries once in a game, sure, that's a pretty low bar. It's also pretty irrelevant for a dynasty purposes Competition at Cal aside, Best DID rush for an average of 16+ and 17+ carries a game. His injury was more of a freak accident than injury in the course of running (that scary concussion), but of course concussions are something to be afraid of in the current NFL climate. So at least there's some evidence that he was able to shoulder a BIT more of a load.

That said - both of these guys, and probably guys like Spiller etc, are best used more sparingly because of their dynamic play. If Felix or Best were to carry that kind of load, you potentially negate their single greatest asset as they wear down. (Unlike guys like Rudi and Hillis who wear down a defense more).

For a long time, everyone wrote smaller speed backs off until CJ3 was a fantasy force. The thing to remember is that CJ3 is a SPECIAL back - he has unique vision, unique speed, and unique acceleration. I think it would be folly to expect every dynamic playmaker to be able to do what he does....

 

[Concept Coop]

Very good posting. I had given up the argument as it feels like talking to a brick wall. But, this was worded very nicely and intelligently.

So because I don't agree with you, I am a brick wall? Huh. Life must be frustrating for you - so many opinions!

Nope, not all. Adds to the spice in life. By the way, I'm glad you agreed with corpcow in your last response. No one here thinks Felix would break at 20 carries in just one game. That's silly. We do however think he could not handle workhorse duties for a nice span of time. So since workhorse carries on a random game at some point are pretty meaningless that makes him less valuable to me.You just agreed that he is not a 300 carry a year guy if i read you right. So, I really don't understand what you've been arguing about. Hence, my brickwall comment.

My argument is that Felix can handle being the main RB for the Dallas Cowboys, or any team with him as their starting running back.As was pointed out above, most RB don't get 20 carries a game anymore, so not being able to handle that long term really doesn't mean much. I was never arguing that Felix could carry an Adrian Peterson like load. I was arguing that Felix can be "the guy". The single 20 carry game argument is silly - just like the suggestion that Jahvid Best CAN carry a full load, because of one single 20 carry game, and Felix Jones CAN'T because his career high is 16. You seem to think that Felix can't be a workhorse, which I don't agree with. I think he can be a workhorse, in the same way that I think LeSean McCoy is being the workhorse in Philly - McCoy isn't getting 20 carries a game. I think he can be a workhorse in the same way that Jamal Charles is the workhorse in KC. Before you point out that he splits carries with Jones, he is still getting a workhorse amount of touches. So, in summary, I think Felix can be "the guy" with 15 carries a game, which would equate to 1,200 rushing yards, 1,600 all purpose yards, on top of the TDs he scores. I think 8 is a reasonable number. That puts him at 13 points a game in non-ppr formats, right around what Ray Rice, MJD, and Ahmad Bradshaw are doing right now - all legit RB1s.

 

[Wingdawg]

Any opinions on L. Blount and his ability to be TB's starter in the future?

 

[benm3218]

lol... well if all you are looking for is 15 carries a game then I am sure Felix is most likely capable of that. To me a workhorse back is a guy like LT (a few years back), MJD, Steven Jackson, Gore. A guy who can handle 20 or 25 carries a game and do well over a year. Let's just agree to change the topic as this is a silly argument and it would really be nice to keep this thread about dynasty players of all types and not just Felix.

 

[shader]

At what point will Felix homers wake up? If he doesn't take it to the house on a long run as he did against the Giants, he just isn't that good. He doesn't get goalline carries, and hasn't shown the ability to be a consistent force.

His TD probably bought his owners a week to get some value for him. Now go trade him while you can.

 

[thehornet]

Felix can be a starter for an NFL team but he'll never be a workhorse back. He hasn't ever been a workhorse back dating back to his froeshman year at college. This isn't the type of thing where you can turn the corner.

 

[benm3218]

Should Starks be rostered for next year on dynasty rosters or do you think GB will draft someone new? Can't decide whether to drop Starks or stash him till next year.

I'm the guy who had Foster on his team and dropped him mid year last year before his breakout...

 

[Concept Coop]

What I'm trying to say is that most backs can't handle a 20+ carry workload for an extended period of time and still be healthy/productive. A RB takes a lot of punish, and there's a reason that the workhorse backs are hard to find. To put it in perspective - 20+ carries per game is a 320+ pace. Since 2002, this has been done 45 times out of a possible 256 times (8 seasons, 32 teams), and only 12 players have done it more than once (and many of those names are the guys who were studs and fell off the map after a few seasns like LJ, Portis, Edge, Ricky, etc).

In other words - the assumption that he can be a 20+ carry back unless proven otherwise is wrong.

In this case, whether it's for a reason or just circumstance/luck as you suggest, we have nothing showing us he can hold up. In fact, the only evidence we have (his injury history and how he is viewed by coaches, as previously discussed) suggests he is NOT one of the few who can handle such a load (at least for more than one season).

Okay, I can agree with what you are saying. My argument was that Felix can handle 20/game, not 20/game for an extended period of time. I am not talking about wearing down from too many carries during multiple seasons, or even one full season. I am talking about Felix Jones' body not being able to carry the ball 20 times, as though his body is going to break at 19. I know that sounds silly, but that is the argument I am getting from SSOG and others. The particular argument that I found silly was this: "Felix has never carried the ball more than 16 times, meaning he can't. But Jahvid Best can, because he has done it before."

With the above argument, one suggest that because Jahvid Best has been given the ball 20 times in one game, that simple fact indicates he can handle doing so. Because Felix has not, he can't. It ignores the fact that Best has not done it fore more than one season, or even for an entire season. And if a team's sole goal was to give the ball to a single RB 20 times, they could do so whenever they wanted to. That means that using number of carries alone to point to a player's ability to carry a load is foolish.

So back to your point, I agree. I would not assume that Felix is ever going to be a 300 carry a year guy, and, as you said, assuming he will or can is illogical. But that has nothing to do with the fact that he has not been given 20 carries in a single game, to this point. Nor does it have anything to do with the fact that he is in a RBBC and Marion Barber was a pro bowl, starting RB when Felix was drafted. I don't think LeSean McCoy will ever be a 300+ carry guy, but he is the main guy in Philly. I think Barber can be the main guy in Dallas, and put up RB1 numbers in the process, as McCoy is.

As far as his coaches, and their use of him goes, the ARE using him as the main back right now - Barber as the COP guy. The number of carries between the two shows that. They just simply don't run the ball enough for Felix's total number of carries to be that of a RB1.

I don't want to speak for SSOG or others - but I was under the impression they were talking "20 carries per game" as an average. If we're talking about ever having 20 carries once in a game, sure, that's a pretty low bar. It's also pretty irrelevant for a dynasty purposes Competition at Cal aside, Best DID rush for an average of 16+ and 17+ carries a game. His injury was more of a freak accident than injury in the course of running (that scary concussion), but of course concussions are something to be afraid of in the current NFL climate. So at least there's some evidence that he was able to shoulder a BIT more of a load.

That said - both of these guys, and probably guys like Spiller etc, are best used more sparingly because of their dynamic play. If Felix or Best were to carry that kind of load, you potentially negate their single greatest asset as they wear down. (Unlike guys like Rudi and Hillis who wear down a defense more).

For a long time, everyone wrote smaller speed backs off until CJ3 was a fantasy force. The thing to remember is that CJ3 is a SPECIAL back - he has unique vision, unique speed, and unique acceleration. I think it would be folly to expect every dynamic playmaker to be able to do what he does....

I think your thoughts on the matter are very logical. But here is where I disagree: I don't think Felix is a Spiller, Best, or even Jamaal Charles type. I know weight is not everything, but it - along with build - do play a part when projecting a players ability to absorb the wear and tear of the NFL. Felix Jones is bigger than Marion Barber. Felix Jones is bigger than Ahmad Bradshaw. The fact that he is faster than both Bradshaw and Barber does not mean that he won't last as long or should be sheltered.On to your next point, that what makes Felix special is his electric ability, and he could lose that if shouldering a major carry burden. While I do agree, in general, that that is the case, I think Felix is different. I liken Felix much more to a Priest Holmes than any of the names that have been thrown around: Norwood, Best, Spiller, Charles, and even CJ. While Felix is fast, that is not his best asset, nor is his speed enough to make him special. I don't know this to be fact, but I would assume he is closer to a 4.5 than a 4.2, unlike Jamaal Charles and CJ4.24 - maybe around a low to mid 4.4.

What makes Felix special are the same things that made Priest Holmes special: speed, quickness (feet), decisiveness, cutting ability, vision, and the biggest one (although in large part due to the others) the ability to make people miss without "juking" and without moving east and west. Felix, like Holmes, moves in diagonal lines, as to get yardage without risking the loss of yardage. In other works, he can make you miss moving forward, not wasting motion (which is energy) and allowing himself to get where he needs to go faster than most running backs in the NFL. If you watch him play, he doesn't juke very often at all, and that is a good thing - he doesn't always need to.

The only aspect of Felix's game that I question, aside from health, is balance. Felix can be hit from the side, and be thrown off course, while guys like MJD and Ray Rice can absorb and move forward. I think Holmes had some of the same issues, and it didn't prevent him from being elite, for a time. McFadden definitely has the same issue, and he is tearing it up right now.

 

[paytonsdaman]

I own Felix (PPR) and I'm trying to get Choice, but Choice owner picked him so early in startup he won't let him go. Last week I (5-4) acquired Barber, Torain, Mike Thomas, and 2nd round pick from 9-0 team for Tamme and TO. Had a first offered but it was with crap players then got this deal. Figured I couldn't get much more for an old TO and Tamme who has to compete with Clark until Clarks contract expires in 2014.

Looks like Garrett is a Felix believer. Good for us Felix owners.

 

[Concept Coop]

Felix can be a starter for an NFL team but he'll never be a workhorse back. He hasn't ever been a workhorse back dating back to his froeshman year at college. This isn't the type of thing where you can turn the corner.

So, let me make sure I understand you. Because he played behind Darren McFadden (the best college RB during his stint) and Marion Barber, the Cowboys use a RBBC, and don't run the ball, Felix can't "turn the corner?"If he played at Ole Miss, started, and got 20 carries a game, he would be able to? Or if he was drafted by the Lions, and got 16 carries a game, he would be fine, but because he wasn't, he can't turn the corner?How exactly did Michael Turner turn the corner? Or does the fact that he didn't play behind Darren McFadden allow him to?

 

[Concept Coop]

At what point will Felix homers wake up? If he doesn't take it to the house on a long run as he did against the Giants, he just isn't that good. He doesn't get goalline carries, and hasn't shown the ability to be a consistent force.His TD probably bought his owners a week to get some value for him. Now go trade him while you can.

Isn't that good? How is 6 YPC not that good? How is back to back 100+ yard games in week 17 and the first round of the playoffs against a good Eagles defense not that good? The Cowboys offensive line has been torn apart by injury, the loss of Flozell Adams, and inconsistent play. If you want to point the finger, start there. Felix was averaging 6YPC prior to this season. If you want to argue that he putting on weight is the reason for the decrees, you would also have to make an excuse up for the other two backs as well, who have also dropped in YPC. What is a consistent force? How can you be a consistent force without consistent touches? Was Michael Turner a consistant force before he got the touches? How about Jamaal Charles?

 

[benm3218]

Concept, don't take this the wrong way, but you can't always convince people that what you think is correct is in fact correct. The discussion, has gotten old. Let's move on to greener pastures.

If Felix becomes Priest Holmes I'll let you make my signature anything you want for a year. But, until lets table this stuff.

 

[Tau837]

Concept, don't take this the wrong way, but you can't always convince people that what you think is correct is in fact correct. The discussion, has gotten old. Let's move on to greener pastures. If Felix becomes Priest Holmes I'll let you make my signature anything you want for a year. But, until lets table this stuff.

This isn't the Felix Jones thread.

 

[Concept Coop]

Concept, don't take this the wrong way, but you can't always convince people that what you think is correct is in fact correct. The discussion, has gotten old. Let's move on to greener pastures. If Felix becomes Priest Holmes I'll let you make my signature anything you want for a year. But, until lets table this stuff.

This isn't the Felix Jones thread.

I have as many non-Felix related posts as anyone on this page. Not only that, I didn't bring Felix up again, I simply responded to others. If you guys would like to talk about something new, be my guest - I'm in. But I enjoy debating and making a case for my opinion, which is why I am here, and which is why I will reply to any post addressed to me. So, what do you want to talk about?

 

[Concept Coop]

Should Starks be rostered for next year on dynasty rosters or do you think GB will draft someone new? Can't decide whether to drop Starks or stash him till next year.I'm the guy who had Foster on his team and dropped him mid year last year before his breakout...

It would depend on how deep your league is. Mine are mostly 14 team, RB heavy, and I wouldn't dream of cutting Starks.Granted, it is most likely fluffy camp talk, but the coaches seemed to be impressed. Not only that, he would only need to be better than Brandon Jackson, as of right now, to start for a high powered offense. As long as he is the #2 when he comes back, I think he has plenty of value. I am not saying he is Arian Foster, not at all. But I wouln't make the Arian Foster mistake (as most of us did) again.

 

[benm3218]

A couple thoughts I have had over the past few weeks.

1. Should Philip Rivers be ranked #1? He has put up the stats with garbage support and with defenses knowing he was going to throw. It isn't a fluke. We had him rated high already, but being able to put up these numbers with the year that team has had, I really don't see why Rodgers would be rated above him. I think Rivers is better than Rodgers.

2. If Peyton Hillis has a Rudi Johnson type career or 3 - 4 years of this type performance before he breaks down, then doesn't he warrant being ranked higher as well?

3. Nicks really is impressive. the leaping one handed grabs he makes on some Eli's off throws are amazing.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

FWIW, I did a study for Draftguys looking at the number of touches in their last college season of RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds from 2001 - 2008. Jones had 11.46 touches per game in 2007, which was the lowest of 60 RBs studied other than Brian Leonard at Rutgers in 2006.

Not to insult you, but I don't know what it's worth. How many of them played with a two-time Heisman candidate? Lets use Julius Jones, who was drafted in the 2nd round during that period. Felix, being the more talented back, would have been the main guy in Notre Dame, and would have averaged a lot more than 12 touches a game. What does that say about Julius, in relation to Felix? Now replace Julius with Tate, or any number of backs drafted in the 1st 3 rounds that were not as good as Felix, even as college backs - what really does it prove?

Do you think the coaches at ARK were worried about Felix's health long term, or do you think they wanted to give Darren McFadden the ball as much as possible? My guess is the later.

Lendale White? He averaged 16.23 touches a game. And Ronnie Brown got 15.54 at Auburn sharing the load with Caddy.

 

[thriftyrocker]

2. If Peyton Hillis has a Rudi Johnson type career or 3 - 4 years of this type performance before he breaks down, then doesn't he warrant being ranked higher as well?

My main concern with Hillis is he is obviously using. I have no personal issues owning a guy who is heavily juiced, but from a dynasty standpoint you have to worry about how it affects longevity. For example, if he gets a big payday will he decide to cut down a little? Does it make knee issues more likely? Also, we have to assume Cleveland is similar to Houston in that mediocre backs can be successful there. Not to say Hillis is any more or less for real than Foster (would rather avoid that discussion), but it allows for the team to decide they don't want to devote a big contract to a RB (just like they decided with Harrison).

 

[Concept Coop]

FWIW, I did a study for Draftguys looking at the number of touches in their last college season of RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds from 2001 - 2008. Jones had 11.46 touches per game in 2007, which was the lowest of 60 RBs studied other than Brian Leonard at Rutgers in 2006.

Not to insult you, but I don't know what it's worth. How many of them played with a two-time Heisman candidate? Lets use Julius Jones, who was drafted in the 2nd round during that period. Felix, being the more talented back, would have been the main guy in Notre Dame, and would have averaged a lot more than 12 touches a game. What does that say about Julius, in relation to Felix? Now replace Julius with Tate, or any number of backs drafted in the 1st 3 rounds that were not as good as Felix, even as college backs - what really does it prove?

Do you think the coaches at ARK were worried about Felix's health long term, or do you think they wanted to give Darren McFadden the ball as much as possible? My guess is the later.

Lendale White? He averaged 16.23 touches a game. And Ronnie Brown got 15.54 at Auburn sharing the load with Caddy.

I guess then, if your argument was to compare Felix Jones to Lendale White or Ronnie Brown, it works. But that is not a very big sample size, not big enough for me to draw much of a conclusion. Also, ironic Brown is one of the examples, because of his health issues. Ironic, too, that Brandon Jacobs had to transfer, because he didn't get enough carries on that same Auburn squad. Yet he has been the healthiest of the 3. Maybe your research is proving the opposite of what you intended it to?So I think it is interesting, but again, unless the Arkansas staff felt that they needed to shelter Felix, and were worried about him breaking down, I don't know how it applies to Felix's future in the NFL. It simply means that the Arkansas staff wanted to give McFadden the ball more, in proportion to his back-up, than Auburn and USC.

 

[benm3218]

2. If Peyton Hillis has a Rudi Johnson type career or 3 - 4 years of this type performance before he breaks down, then doesn't he warrant being ranked higher as well?

My main concern with Hillis is he is obviously using. I have no personal issues owning a guy who is heavily juiced, but from a dynasty standpoint you have to worry about how it affects longevity. For example, if he gets a big payday will he decide to cut down a little? Does it make knee issues more likely? Also, we have to assume Cleveland is similar to Houston in that mediocre backs can be successful there. Not to say Hillis is any more or less for real than Foster (would rather avoid that discussion), but it allows for the team to decide they don't want to devote a big contract to a RB (just like they decided with Harrison).

Well... Call me crazy but I don't think it's a given he is using. I mean do we say Tebow is using just because he is white and ripped?

 

[I was in the pool]

A couple thoughts I have had over the past few weeks. 1. Should Philip Rivers be ranked #1? He has put up the stats with garbage support and with defenses knowing he was going to throw. It isn't a fluke. We had him rated high already, but being able to put up these numbers with the year that team has had, I really don't see why Rodgers would be rated above him. I think Rivers is better than Rodgers.2. If Peyton Hillis has a Rudi Johnson type career or 3 - 4 years of this type performance before he breaks down, then doesn't he warrant being ranked higher as well?3. Nicks really is impressive. the leaping one handed grabs he makes on some Eli's off throws are amazing.

#1 - Rivers is really impressing me this year. I wasn't all that impressed in years past, but I really thought he would be a top-10 QB at best with their O-line that struggles to run block and their receiver issues this year. He proved me wrong.#2 - If that is how it plays out for Hillis, then yes, but I am not a believer at this point. A guy in one of my leagues keeps talking about how great Hillis is - I stand by my opinion which is that Hardesty would have been a major part of the Browns' plans this year without injury and will get a full shot at playing time in 2011 if healthy. Hillis' touches would go down as a result. Plus, he runs similarly to Jacobs to me and is going to take a big-time pounding as a result. His shelf life will not be that long if he keeps the starting job.#3 - Nicks and Dez continue to blow my mind with how well they are playing as rookies - even when Dez is returning a kick he has that look that he could be going to the house with it. Nicks turns short routes into 15-yard gains routinely. Both look like a young TO in terms of after-the-catch ability to shed defenders. Good stuff. I wasn't this into FF when Fitz - Calvin - AJ, etc. came into the league, but what they are doing right out of the gate is very impressive. After next year I will have to choose what 2 guys to keep between Dez, Nicks and Roddy White in one of my leagues. With the way they are playing, I may have to trade Roddy White at some point next year to keep these two guys....For someone that did follow it that closely - can you share if the elite WRs looked this impressive in their 1st/2nd seasons in the league?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

FWIW, I did a study for Draftguys looking at the number of touches in their last college season of RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds from 2001 - 2008. Jones had 11.46 touches per game in 2007, which was the lowest of 60 RBs studied other than Brian Leonard at Rutgers in 2006.

Not to insult you, but I don't know what it's worth. How many of them played with a two-time Heisman candidate? Lets use Julius Jones, who was drafted in the 2nd round during that period. Felix, being the more talented back, would have been the main guy in Notre Dame, and would have averaged a lot more than 12 touches a game. What does that say about Julius, in relation to Felix? Now replace Julius with Tate, or any number of backs drafted in the 1st 3 rounds that were not as good as Felix, even as college backs - what really does it prove?

Do you think the coaches at ARK were worried about Felix's health long term, or do you think they wanted to give Darren McFadden the ball as much as possible? My guess is the later.

Lendale White? He averaged 16.23 touches a game. And Ronnie Brown got 15.54 at Auburn sharing the load with Caddy.

I guess then, if your argument was to compare Felix Jones to Lendale White or Ronnie Brown, it works. But that is not a very big sample size, not big enough for me to draw much of a conclusion. Also, ironic Brown is one of the examples, because of his health issues. Ironic, too, that Brandon Jacobs had to transfer, because he didn't get enough carries on that same Auburn squad. But, for some reason, I don't think that is why he is slowing down. So I think it is interesting, but again, unless the Arkansas staff felt that they needed to shelter Felix, and were worried about him breaking down, I don't know how it applies to Felix's future in the NFL. It simply means that the Arkansas staff wanted to give McFadden the ball more, in proportion to his back-up, than Auburn and USC.

Agree. More of an interesting point and trying to show that saying that Felix had a small load his last year in college is hiding the fact that he really had a tiny load his last year in college relative to RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds. If nothing else, it really should make most people less sure of his talent since they got to see a lot less of it than other RBs. Once last comment on Felix from me. Here is my summary of the Break Down the Tape article I did on him for Draftguys back in 2007:

Felix Jones is a very good running back but I have some reservations about him in the NFL. The first issue I see is that he didn't run in tight spaces very much in college. Most of the plays in the Arkansas offense are misdirection plays in which Jones gets the ball in plenty of space. He does a good job in space with nice speed and acceleration as well as good long vision to set up blocks and cuts down the field. But there is risk involved when you don't see a running back run through traffic and in tight spaces much in college. The NFL has much less open space than college and although he may be fine in less space, I just can't be sure.

Another interesting point is his lack of touches. I did a study recently looking at the number of touches in their final college season of all running backs drafted in the first 3 rounds since 2000. Of the 54 backs that meet that criteria, Jones would have the second lowest number of touches per game in the study, higher only than Brian Leonard. Although there isn't conclusive evidence that fewer touches lead to poorer performance in the NFL, I think that a low number of touches leads to two problems. The first is that it's harder to evaluate a running back when he has fewer touches because there are fewer situations to watch and observe. A lot of scouts thought that Tony Hollings' 95 touches for Georgia Tech in 2002 marked him as a future NFL star. But such a limited body of work makes it difficult to reach deep conclusions about a back's strengths and weaknesses.

The second problem with a lack of touches is wondering why the back has so few touches. Of course, playing with a fantastic running back in Darren McFadden is going to limit touches for many running backs. But even playing alongside Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush in 2005, LenDale White had 37.5% of the team carries. Jones had 21.3% of Arkansas' carries in 2007.

The LSU game I reviewed above further highlighted this question as Arkansas fullback Peyton Hillis had more touches than Jones. He scored 2 touchdowns running and two receiving. The only time Jones got into the end zone was on the 2 point conversion at the end of the game. It begs the question why he had so few touches in such an important game.

When Jones does get the ball and does get in space he is very impressive. He has excellent acceleration although he's not at McFadden's level. He has the vision to make some nice moves without gearing down and he does an excellent job setting up the defenders and blockers downfield.

I think Jones will be a good NFL back but I think there's more risk than with some other backs in the same range so I've moved him down a couple of spots. It's possible that he'll be the best back in the class, so if you like risk and upside, I think he's your man. But I prefer more certainty in an early draft choice.

Personally, I haven't seen enough of him in the NFL yet to change that initial opinion.

 

[I was in the pool]

I can't wait to see what happens if the steroids can is opened in this thread.....

 

[Concept Coop]

A couple thoughts I have had over the past few weeks. 1. Should Philip Rivers be ranked #1? He has put up the stats with garbage support and with defenses knowing he was going to throw. It isn't a fluke. We had him rated high already, but being able to put up these numbers with the year that team has had, I really don't see why Rodgers would be rated above him. I think Rivers is better than Rodgers.2. If Peyton Hillis has a Rudi Johnson type career or 3 - 4 years of this type performance before he breaks down, then doesn't he warrant being ranked higher as well?3. Nicks really is impressive. the leaping one handed grabs he makes on some Eli's off throws are amazing.

1. I would take Rivers, if I had to decide right now, based on what he has done this season. Watch out when he gets Gates back, and a legit #1 WR.2. Another good one. I am on the fence about him. I love him this season, but I want to see how Hardesty, or who ever they bring in to be the #2 does, before making that call. I don't value him as top 20 yet. Harrison was putting up good numbers too.3. Nicks is a really good WR, top 3-5 dynasty wise. Like others have said, he and Dez are doing some impressive things right now.

 

[Concept Coop]

I can't wait to see what happens if the steroids can is opened in this thread.....

Nothing compared to what goes down if the race card is opened!

 

[Tau837]

#1 - Rivers is really impressing me this year. I wasn't all that impressed in years past, but I really thought he would be a top-10 QB at best with their O-line that struggles to run block and their receiver issues this year. He proved me wrong.

This is the third year Rivers has been playing at this level. It's just more noticeable to fantasy guys because he is getting more attempts this year and thus putting up bigger fantasy numbers.

#3 - Nicks and Dez continue to blow my mind with how well they are playing as rookies

Nicks isn't a rookie, he is a second year player. But, yes, both of these guys are very impressive for such young players.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Saying someone is on steroids when you have absolutely no clue makes you a total joke. I have lost all respect for you.

 

[DansRams]

Saying someone is on steroids when you have absolutely no clue makes you a total joke. I have lost all respect for you.

Consider it opened lol

 

[Tau837]

1. Should Philip Rivers be ranked #1? He has put up the stats with garbage support and with defenses knowing he was going to throw. It isn't a fluke. We had him rated high already, but being able to put up these numbers with the year that team has had, I really don't see why Rodgers would be rated above him. I think Rivers is better than Rodgers.

1. I would take Rivers, if I had to decide right now, based on what he has done this season. Watch out when he gets Gates back, and a legit #1 WR.

I'm probably the biggest Rivers supporter in the Shark Pool, and I'm glad to see him getting a lot of respect around here and in the national media after not being fully appreciated in past seasons. However, I would not rank him above Rodgers... I own Rodgers in both of my dynasty leagues, and I wouldn't trade Rodgers for him straight up.In his first three years under Norv, Rivers averaged 29.7 attempts per game, but this year he is averaging 36.6... that's a 23% increase in attempts. To some degree, now that LT is gone and Rivers is the unquestioned leader of the offense, one might expect an increase in attempts, but I don't think it will hold at this level long term. Norv's offenses tend to be more balanced, and I expect the Chargers to feature the running game more in future seasons, assuming the key players are more healthy and effective.Meanwhile, Green Bay has averaged 35.6 passing attempts per game since McCarthy took over as head coach in 2006. I realize many here prefer to rank by talent and not situation, but I think there is a significant opportunity gap here. Not to mention that Rodgers currently chips in another 200+ yards and 4+ TDs on the ground every year... that may not last long term, but for now and likely the next few seasons at least it is a nice boost to his passing numbers.All that said, IMO a more interesting question is whether or not Rivers should be ranked #2.

 

[Whitney26]

The Bears picked Harvey Unga of BYU last year in the Supplemental Draft. Unfortunately, he got hurt and was placed on IR. He's on my Taxi Squad in my league, and I was wondering if anyone had any information on him? I can't seem to find anything current.

Living in Utah, I watched quite a bit of him. It is hard for me to write off his value, because he was a monster against other college players. I liked him more than Luke Staley (another BYU RB), who won the Doak Walker award. That said, I don't have any hope for the guy, in the NFL. He just doesn't have enough burst to get anything beyond the initial hole, if there. Even big guys like Brandon Jacobs need burst, and we are seeing what happens when it starts to fade. The one positive is that the Bears liked him enough to use a pretty good draft pick on him - a 4th if I remember correctly. He is big, strong, and can catch. Bun in the NFL, every one is big and strong. As for any info regarding his impression on the Bears, I don't have anything to offer. I haven't heard a peep since the injury.

Thanks for the help. I didn't watch him much at BYU, but I do recall him being a good all-purpose back. I like his size and hands, but I'm concerned about his burst too. If Taylor leaves for one reason or another after the season, it might be interesting to see if he develops.

 

[corpcow]

I think your thoughts on the matter are very logical. But here is where I disagree: I don't think Felix is a Spiller, Best, or even Jamaal Charles type. I know weight is not everything, but it - along with build - do play a part when projecting a players ability to absorb the wear and tear of the NFL. Felix Jones is bigger than Marion Barber. Felix Jones is bigger than Ahmad Bradshaw. The fact that he is faster than both Bradshaw and Barber does not mean that he won't last as long or should be sheltered.

On to your next point, that what makes Felix special is his electric ability, and he could lose that if shouldering a major carry burden. While I do agree, in general, that that is the case, I think Felix is different. I liken Felix much more to a Priest Holmes than any of the names that have been thrown around: Norwood, Best, Spiller, Charles, and even CJ. While Felix is fast, that is not his best asset, nor is his speed enough to make him special. I don't know this to be fact, but I would assume he is closer to a 4.5 than a 4.2, unlike Jamaal Charles and CJ4.24 - maybe around a low to mid 4.4.

What makes Felix special are the same things that made Priest Holmes special: speed, quickness (feet), decisiveness, cutting ability, vision, and the biggest one (although in large part due to the others) the ability to make people miss without "juking" and without moving east and west. Felix, like Holmes, moves in diagonal lines, as to get yardage without risking the loss of yardage. In other works, he can make you miss moving forward, not wasting motion (which is energy) and allowing himself to get where he needs to go faster than most running backs in the NFL. If you watch him play, he doesn't juke very often at all, and that is a good thing - he doesn't always need to.

The only aspect of Felix's game that I question, aside from health, is balance. Felix can be hit from the side, and be thrown off course, while guys like MJD and Ray Rice can absorb and move forward. I think Holmes had some of the same issues, and it didn't prevent him from being elite, for a time. McFadden definitely has the same issue, and he is tearing it up right now.

You're entitled to your opinion. I'm just not convinced he will ever be a top RB for fantasy purposes. If his price was super-low, I might consider buying him - but there are some like yourself (and of course most tend to be Felix Jones owners) who take the most optimistic view of him. To me, he doesn't show enough vision, runs too upright, and doesn't run between the tackles well enough to be an every down back, and that to me is going to prevent him from ever being a fantasy stud. (Ray Rice, MJD and CJ3 are all great inside runners despite not being the biggest guys, because of their footwork, balance and vision). Look at his highlights:

Very upright, runs to the corner, doesn't make second and third moves like CJ. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoUr82vUx60

And you know what? When CJ came into the league, many said he was just a COP guy... and yet he quickly proved himself to be an every down guy. Felix still hasn't done that... and MB3 has not exactly been tearing it up.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think your thoughts on the matter are very logical. But here is where I disagree: I don't think Felix is a Spiller, Best, or even Jamaal Charles type. I know weight is not everything, but it - along with build - do play a part when projecting a players ability to absorb the wear and tear of the NFL. Felix Jones is bigger than Marion Barber. Felix Jones is bigger than Ahmad Bradshaw. The fact that he is faster than both Bradshaw and Barber does not mean that he won't last as long or should be sheltered.

On to your next point, that what makes Felix special is his electric ability, and he could lose that if shouldering a major carry burden. While I do agree, in general, that that is the case, I think Felix is different. I liken Felix much more to a Priest Holmes than any of the names that have been thrown around: Norwood, Best, Spiller, Charles, and even CJ. While Felix is fast, that is not his best asset, nor is his speed enough to make him special. I don't know this to be fact, but I would assume he is closer to a 4.5 than a 4.2, unlike Jamaal Charles and CJ4.24 - maybe around a low to mid 4.4.

What makes Felix special are the same things that made Priest Holmes special: speed, quickness (feet), decisiveness, cutting ability, vision, and the biggest one (although in large part due to the others) the ability to make people miss without "juking" and without moving east and west. Felix, like Holmes, moves in diagonal lines, as to get yardage without risking the loss of yardage. In other works, he can make you miss moving forward, not wasting motion (which is energy) and allowing himself to get where he needs to go faster than most running backs in the NFL. If you watch him play, he doesn't juke very often at all, and that is a good thing - he doesn't always need to.

The only aspect of Felix's game that I question, aside from health, is balance. Felix can be hit from the side, and be thrown off course, while guys like MJD and Ray Rice can absorb and move forward. I think Holmes had some of the same issues, and it didn't prevent him from being elite, for a time. McFadden definitely has the same issue, and he is tearing it up right now.

You're entitled to your opinion. I'm just not convinced he will ever be a top RB for fantasy purposes. If his price was super-low, I might consider buying him - but there are some like yourself (and of course most tend to be Felix Jones owners) who take the most optimistic view of him. To me, he doesn't show enough vision, runs too upright, and doesn't run between the tackles well enough to be an every down back, and that to me is going to prevent him from ever being a fantasy stud. (Ray Rice, MJD and CJ3 are all great inside runners despite not being the biggest guys, because of their footwork, balance and vision). Look at his highlights:

For the record, I don't own Felix in any of my leagues. I would buy, at his current rate though. I am higher on Felix as an actual football player than a FF piece. I place a high premium on current production and while I think Felix could be a an RB1, he currently is not, so I don't value him as such. Felix does run upright, and that does concern me. As I mentioned above, his balance is lacking, in that he is not great at breaking tackles. Because he is always moving forward, he doesn't take many hits head on. That is great, if you can break the tackles that come from an angle, and Felix can't. But I think he does enough at a great to elite level, to negate some of that. If you can make people miss before they touch you, it is okay that they can bring you down, when they eventually do get to you. Again, I think of Priest Holmes. If he can get 5 yards before he is touched, it is not a big deal that he goes down when he is hit after those 5 yards.

I am confused by the "can't run between the tackles" comment. What do you base that on, beyond this year? Nobody has been able to run between the tackles for the Cowboys this year, because of the line. But last year and the year before, that is where he did most of his damage, especially on draw plays. I will absolutely acknowledge that he can't make a living in the NFL the way that MJD, ADP, and even CJ do - he isn't built for that. Felix does need a line that can give him openings, but when he gets them, he can be deadly. He is not a "churner, wear down the D" kind of back. But that has not prevented others from being good NFL backs or Fantasy backs.

The last comment I don't get, is the one questioning his vision. I will simply leave it at that: I don't get it. I respect your opinion, because you do make some very solid points. You don't resort to the "hasn't so can't" argument, and use what he has actually done.

As for his highlights, I can't view at work, so I won't comment. But I have seen every game he has played in, with the exception of the GB debacle. Having seen plenty of him, my opinion remains.

 

[ookook]

I am curious what everyone's take is on Wells vs. Greene moving forward. I see SSOG has them 18th and 24th respectively.

As I recall, folks thought Beanie had more talent, but now he cannot keep Hightower off the field. Greene looks great at times, but has LT for the next year or two.

Will they both eventually be featured backs?

 

[Richard_the_Vampire]

I am curious what everyone's take is on Wells vs. Greene moving forward. I see SSOG has them 18th and 24th respectively. As I recall, folks thought Beanie had more talent, but now he cannot keep Hightower off the field. Greene looks great at times, but has LT for the next year or two.Will they both eventually be featured backs?

I wouldn't touch Wells with a five-foot pole. He has serious knee problems.Greene is more attractive, but I think LT will remain a big factor next year. So for Greene, you probably have to wait until 2012 to have consistent production.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I am curious what everyone's take is on Wells vs. Greene moving forward. I see SSOG has them 18th and 24th respectively. As I recall, folks thought Beanie had more talent, but now he cannot keep Hightower off the field. Greene looks great at times, but has LT for the next year or two.Will they both eventually be featured backs?

Wells can't keep infections out of his knee. He still hasn't looked great when he is in there, but Hightower is no threat. The team wants Wells to take the job, he just hasn't been healthy enough. If staying healthy is a talent, then the disparity between Wells and Greene is much smaller.I expect Greene to put up better numbers than LT from now on (except in PPR leagues). The YPC this year for Greene vs. LT is starting to favor Greene, and the split of carries will start to favor Greene more as the year winds down and into next year. If LT got hurt, Greene's situation is pretty good - what it was supposed to be when people picked him in Rd 2 of redrafts. But without that, Greene's price is too high because the production just isn't there in a 50/50 or 60/40 RBBC.

 

[benm3218]

I think your thoughts on the matter are very logical. But here is where I disagree: I don't think Felix is a Spiller, Best, or even Jamaal Charles type. I know weight is not everything, but it - along with build - do play a part when projecting a players ability to absorb the wear and tear of the NFL. Felix Jones is bigger than Marion Barber. Felix Jones is bigger than Ahmad Bradshaw. The fact that he is faster than both Bradshaw and Barber does not mean that he won't last as long or should be sheltered.

On to your next point, that what makes Felix special is his electric ability, and he could lose that if shouldering a major carry burden. While I do agree, in general, that that is the case, I think Felix is different. I liken Felix much more to a Priest Holmes than any of the names that have been thrown around: Norwood, Best, Spiller, Charles, and even CJ. While Felix is fast, that is not his best asset, nor is his speed enough to make him special. I don't know this to be fact, but I would assume he is closer to a 4.5 than a 4.2, unlike Jamaal Charles and CJ4.24 - maybe around a low to mid 4.4.

What makes Felix special are the same things that made Priest Holmes special: speed, quickness (feet), decisiveness, cutting ability, vision, and the biggest one (although in large part due to the others) the ability to make people miss without "juking" and without moving east and west. Felix, like Holmes, moves in diagonal lines, as to get yardage without risking the loss of yardage. In other works, he can make you miss moving forward, not wasting motion (which is energy) and allowing himself to get where he needs to go faster than most running backs in the NFL. If you watch him play, he doesn't juke very often at all, and that is a good thing - he doesn't always need to.

The only aspect of Felix's game that I question, aside from health, is balance. Felix can be hit from the side, and be thrown off course, while guys like MJD and Ray Rice can absorb and move forward. I think Holmes had some of the same issues, and it didn't prevent him from being elite, for a time. McFadden definitely has the same issue, and he is tearing it up right now.

You're entitled to your opinion. I'm just not convinced he will ever be a top RB for fantasy purposes. If his price was super-low, I might consider buying him - but there are some like yourself (and of course most tend to be Felix Jones owners) who take the most optimistic view of him. To me, he doesn't show enough vision, runs too upright, and doesn't run between the tackles well enough to be an every down back, and that to me is going to prevent him from ever being a fantasy stud. (Ray Rice, MJD and CJ3 are all great inside runners despite not being the biggest guys, because of their footwork, balance and vision). Look at his highlights:

Would you please stop mentioning Felix in the sentence with Priest Holmes. It is ludicrous, ridiculous, and obnoxious to me.Priest was legendary and elite. Felix is nowhere even close to him. Saying Felix is like Priest is like saying I'm like Lance Armstrong because we are the same height and weight. You are killing me dude. Felix is not even close to Priest.

 

[sbonomo]

I am curious what everyone's take is on Wells vs. Greene moving forward. I see SSOG has them 18th and 24th respectively. As I recall, folks thought Beanie had more talent, but now he cannot keep Hightower off the field. Greene looks great at times, but has LT for the next year or two.Will they both eventually be featured backs?

Wells can't keep infections out of his knee. He still hasn't looked great when he is in there, but Hightower is no threat. The team wants Wells to take the job, he just hasn't been healthy enough. If staying healthy is a talent, then the disparity between Wells and Greene is much smaller.I expect Greene to put up better numbers than LT from now on (except in PPR leagues). The YPC this year for Greene vs. LT is starting to favor Greene, and the split of carries will start to favor Greene more as the year winds down and into next year. If LT got hurt, Greene's situation is pretty good - what it was supposed to be when people picked him in Rd 2 of redrafts. But without that, Greene's price is too high because the production just isn't there in a 50/50 or 60/40 RBBC.

You must not watch many Cards games....Hightower is a much better blocker and pass catcher than Wells...If he did not have the fumbling problem Wells would probably be seeing less time. Wells has much more upside but to say that Hightower does not threaton his playing time is naive.

 

[Concept Coop]

Would you please stop mentioning Felix in the sentence with Priest Holmes. It is ludicrous, ridiculous, and obnoxious to me.Priest was legendary and elite. Felix is nowhere even close to him. Saying Felix is like Priest is like saying I'm like Lance Armstrong because we are the same height and weight. You are killing me dude. Felix is not even close to Priest.

What a joke. Why don't you stop reading my posts, since you have nothing to offer?Actually, using your silly analogy, it would be like me saying that remind me of Lance Armstrong because you start slow, but finish strong, or arch your back the way he does. Do you understand how that is not the same as me saying your are as talented or good as Lance?Where did I say Felix was as good, or anywhere close to Holmes? I didn't. I said their running styles are similar. Just like Mark Ingram reminds me of Emmitt Smith. In saying that, I am not suggesting that he will be one of the greatest RBs of all time. Get it? If not, PM me and I can help you out.Edit: "Legendary"

 

[corpcow]

I am curious what everyone's take is on Wells vs. Greene moving forward. I see SSOG has them 18th and 24th respectively. As I recall, folks thought Beanie had more talent, but now he cannot keep Hightower off the field. Greene looks great at times, but has LT for the next year or two.Will they both eventually be featured backs?

I wouldn't touch Wells with a five-foot pole. He has serious knee problems.Greene is more attractive, but I think LT will remain a big factor next year. So for Greene, you probably have to wait until 2012 to have consistent production.

Wells had knee surgery early in the year... and so I'm willing to give him a BIT of a pass. That said, hearing that he's 23 and needs lubricant (something Cecil and Sigmund covered a lot) sure does scare me.As a Wells owner, I'm holding him because, frankly, I'm probably not going to get what his upside is worth now. If you were going to sell, the preseason was the time to do it. If the price was low enough, I'd actually probably buy him. I think he's got all the talent in the world, and (as we saw with guys like Sidney Rice, etc) - he should eventually get healthy. And his upside, IMO, is MASSIVE. It's not talent that's keeping him off the field. He has a reputation for being banged up, but that was more a la ADP - not chronic knee problems. Knee issues happen, and as a 23 yr old you have to hope he'll rebound. If you can buy him for a pickup-of-the-week and a 2nd round pick, I'd do it... but as a Beanie owner I wouldn't considering I invested 1.02 in him and I'm probably not going ot get equivalent value back.

 

[I was in the pool]

I am curious what everyone's take is on Wells vs. Greene moving forward. I see SSOG has them 18th and 24th respectively. As I recall, folks thought Beanie had more talent, but now he cannot keep Hightower off the field. Greene looks great at times, but has LT for the next year or two.Will they both eventually be featured backs?

I wouldn't touch Wells with a five-foot pole. He has serious knee problems.Greene is more attractive, but I think LT will remain a big factor next year. So for Greene, you probably have to wait until 2012 to have consistent production.

Wells had knee surgery early in the year... and so I'm willing to give him a BIT of a pass. That said, hearing that he's 23 and needs lubricant (something Cecil and Sigmund covered a lot) sure does scare me.As a Wells owner, I'm holding him because, frankly, I'm probably not going to get what his upside is worth now. If you were going to sell, the preseason was the time to do it. If the price was low enough, I'd actually probably buy him. I think he's got all the talent in the world, and (as we saw with guys like Sidney Rice, etc) - he should eventually get healthy. And his upside, IMO, is MASSIVE. It's not talent that's keeping him off the field. He has a reputation for being banged up, but that was more a la ADP - not chronic knee problems. Knee issues happen, and as a 23 yr old you have to hope he'll rebound. If you can buy him for a pickup-of-the-week and a 2nd round pick, I'd do it... but as a Beanie owner I wouldn't considering I invested 1.02 in him and I'm probably not going ot get equivalent value back.

I am in the boat you are talking about. The owner of Wells got fed up a few days ago and outright dropped Wells (It's a keeper auction league - you can keep a guy for $5 extra and 10% increase the following season). He had Wells for $25 of $200 cap and decided to cut bait. My decision is how much to bid to make it a decent opportunity to keep him in 2011. I was thinking if he has an improved off-season and has the promise of maybe getting the lead spot that a salary of $20 in 2011 might not be crazy. But then again - when a guy burns you (or someone in the league) pretty bad, you have a hard time letting it go (insert Felix Jones reference here - yikes, I said it....).

 

[corpcow]

I am in the boat you are talking about. The owner of Wells got fed up a few days ago and outright dropped Wells (It's a keeper auction league - you can keep a guy for $5 extra and 10% increase the following season). He had Wells for $25 of $200 cap and decided to cut bait. My decision is how much to bid to make it a decent opportunity to keep him in 2011. I was thinking if he has an improved off-season and has the promise of maybe getting the lead spot that a salary of $20 in 2011 might not be crazy. But then again - when a guy burns you (or someone in the league) pretty bad, you have a hard time letting it go (insert Felix Jones reference here - yikes, I said it....).

I would buy if the price is cheap enough to keep him. I think he has enough upside as an every down back to be worth it. He's young enough (and his injuries have been unrelated to workload etc) to make it a worthwhile investment in my opinion.As far being burned - quite the opposite. Most people in fantasy football (particularly dynasty leagues) are not patient enough, and most overreact to "what you've done for me lately". I laugh every week at some of the #### that goes down in my contract leagues (where the size of contracts is very important). The nice thing about a contract league is that you are literally betting money... you have to decide how much to commit over how long of a period. There are things that scare me about Wells, but it's not his ability (or opportunity) to be a featured back. This is why I think Beanie is a possible buy low candidate - because many of the owners won't be patient enough (to the point of dropping him as you said). If he can be had for nothing, I think the risk is worth the reward. I've got offers out on him in some of my other contract leagues for people hoping they just want to dump the contracts.I don't think anyone is dropping Felix... but I think people are pricing Felix much higher than Wells in many cases. And to be honest - if you gave me the choice, all else being equal, in a startup draft right now, I'd take Wells... because I think his upside is greater because I think he's more likely to be an every down back.