Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Re: Ladarius...

At 250 -- which it's not clear Green is really playing at -- I think Green's best comps are longer leaner TEs like Tony Gonzalez (until he got older) and Coby Fleener. Or Jared Cook with less explosion, but much better field awareness.

At 240 -- which may actually be a more comfortable weight for him based on some of his comments -- I think he's a taller, bigger, faster version of Brandon Marshall or a MUCH more athletic version of Plaxico Burress. Given his speed and combine weight I lean more towards this interpretation.

My rankings are generally organized like:

Elite player today

Elite prospect

Starter quality today

Non-elite prospect

--Elite prospect with lower hit rate

--Reasonable chance of being non-elite starter

Other

So basically I had a pre-NFL read on Green that said he might be an elite player (but with more risk than most) and his performance to date has bumped him into the elite prospect category with the best TE prospects.

 

[Spike]

It seems to me people might want to think about how Jeffery would be if he was the primary target on his team, without someone like Brandon Marshall on the other side.

 

[Concept Coop]

Re: Ladarius...

At 250 -- which it's not clear Green is really playing at -- I think Green's best comps are longer leaner TEs like Tony Gonzalez (until he got older) and Coby Fleener. Or Jared Cook with less explosion, but much better field awareness.

At 240 -- which may actually be a more comfortable weight for him based on some of his comments -- I think he's a taller, bigger, faster version of Brandon Marshall or a MUCH more athletic version of Plaxico Burress. Given his speed and combine weight I lean more towards this interpretation.

My rankings are generally organized like:

Elite player today

Elite prospect

Starter quality today

Non-elite prospect

--Elite prospect with lower hit rate

--Reasonable chance of being non-elite starter

Other

So basically I had a pre-NFL read on Green that said he might be an elite player (but with more risk) and his performance to date has bumped him into the elite prospect category with the best TE prospects.

When you call him a physically superior version of Marshall - are we simply talking about his measurable physical traits? I think we're putting a lot into a 30 target sample size, when we bump him from an end of the bench guy, to a top 6 TE.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

When you call him a physically superior version of Marshall - are we simply talking about his measurable physical traits? I think we're putting a lot into a 30 target sample size, when we bump him from an end of the bench guy, to a top 6 TE.

Well, obviously taller, bigger, faster is measurable. So yes on that count.

But when I plug Green into the WR model/algorithm/whatever his NCAA performance lines up with Marshall and Plax's pretty well. So he's physically superior and also has decent intution/receiving chops/vision/field awareness/whatever to go with it. And given that Green played as a TE in college you'd could argue that the measure of his receiving ability is actually understated (i.e. that a ending up with a measure similar to Marshall's and Plax's might actually represent more receving ability).

ETA: his NFL targets don't influence those comps. They only make me think it's more likely that the comps might eventually be confirmed.

 

[Adam Harstad]

It seems to me people might want to think about how Jeffery would be if he was the primary target on his team, without someone like Brandon Marshall on the other side.

Honestly, I'm not at all sure this whole "primary target" thing isn't wildly overblown. On the one hand, we have guys like Peerless Price, who was huge as a second option and terrible as a first. But the plural of anecdote is not data. Isn't it possible that Peerless Price had a random, completely bizarre and inexplicable huge season? Isn't it possible that he's just David Boston, or Patrick Jeffers, or Brandon Lloyd, and he was going to completely implode no matter what? Isn't it possible that we've latched on to this whole "he couldn't handle being the primary target" explanation because it's there, and it's plausible-sounding, and we desperately crave plausible-sounding narratives?

I think it's very rare for players to do worse as a primary option than they did as a secondary option. One of the very first in-depth looks I ever did came about a decade ago now, when I looked at the catch rates of players who went from being a team's #2 option to being the #1 option. I found that not only did catch rates not decline in the face of tougher coverages and more forced balls, they actually went up very slightly. Now, this was a long time ago, and looking back my methodology was very haphazardous, so I don't know how the results would hold up if I looked at it again today. But the point is that we always expect 2nd options to struggle when they become 1st options, and by-and-large, they don't (Peerless Price notwithstanding).

There was some concern about this surrounding VJax, too. People wondered how he'd fare away from the friendly confines of SD with Rivers spreading the ball around and quality receivers drawing attention. And the answer wound up being "just fine, thank you very much". Same with Plax and Hines when the Steelers broke up the band. Rod Smith was phenomenal without Ed McCaffrey drawing attention. It turns out Anquan Boldin was largely irrelevant to Larry Fitzgerald (although Kurt Warner was not). Pierre Garcon is doing fabulously as the only option in Washington, despite drawing target totals way above his pay grade. Again, the plural of anecdote isn't data, but I think worries over the quality of coverage a receiver is going to wind up facing wind up being largely overblown.

Side note: there is nothing so dangerous in fantasy football as a plausible-sounding narrative.

 

[Concept Coop]

When you call him a physically superior version of Marshall - are we simply talking about his measurable physical traits? I think we're putting a lot into a 30 target sample size, when we bump him from an end of the bench guy, to a top 6 TE.

Well, obviously taller, bigger, faster is measurable. So yes on that count.

But when I plug Green into the WR model/algorithm/whatever his NCAA performance lines up with Marshall and Plax's pretty well. So he's physically superior and also has decent intution/receiving chops/vision/field awareness/whatever to go with it. And given that Green played as a TE in college you'd could argue that the measure of his receiving ability is actually understated (i.e. that a ending up with a measure similar to Marshall's and Plax's might actually represent more receving ability).

I have to question the model used, if it's suggesting Green is a "bigger, stronger, faster Brandon Marshall". We're talking about a top 2-5 WR in the NFL over the last 5+ seasons. Green's a nice prospect with great physical build. But he's closer to Robert Housler than Brandon Marshall.

 

[Adam Harstad]

When you call him a physically superior version of Marshall - are we simply talking about his measurable physical traits? I think we're putting a lot into a 30 target sample size, when we bump him from an end of the bench guy, to a top 6 TE.

Well, obviously taller, bigger, faster is measurable. So yes on that count.

But when I plug Green into the WR model/algorithm/whatever his NCAA performance lines up with Marshall and Plax's pretty well. So he's physically superior and also has decent intution/receiving chops/vision/field awareness/whatever to go with it. And given that Green played as a TE in college you'd could argue that the measure of his receiving ability is actually understated (i.e. that a ending up with a measure similar to Marshall's and Plax's might actually represent more receving ability).

I have to question the model used, if it's suggesting Green is a "bigger, stronger, faster Brandon Marshall". We're talking about a top 2-5 WR in the NFL over the last 5+ seasons. Green's a nice prospect with great physical build. But he's closer to Robert Housler than Brandon Marshall.

I believe wdcrob's model compares them as prospects. So we're not talking about a top 2-5 WR over the last 5+ seasons, we're talking about a 4th round WR (who also played some safety).

 

[Concept Coop]

I believe wdcrob's model compares them as prospects. So we're not talking about a top 2-5 WR over the last 5+ seasons, we're talking about a 4th round WR (who also played some safety).

I don't like using names, then. And Plax was a top 10 pick.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

When you call him a physically superior version of Marshall - are we simply talking about his measurable physical traits? I think we're putting a lot into a 30 target sample size, when we bump him from an end of the bench guy, to a top 6 TE.

Well, obviously taller, bigger, faster is measurable. So yes on that count.

But when I plug Green into the WR model/algorithm/whatever his NCAA performance lines up with Marshall and Plax's pretty well. So he's physically superior and also has decent intution/receiving chops/vision/field awareness/whatever to go with it. And given that Green played as a TE in college you'd could argue that the measure of his receiving ability is actually understated (i.e. that a ending up with a measure similar to Marshall's and Plax's might actually represent more receving ability).

I have to question the model used, if it's suggesting Green is a "bigger, stronger, faster Brandon Marshall". We're talking about a top 2-5 WR in the NFL over the last 5+ seasons. Green's a nice prospect with great physical build. But he's closer to Robert Housler than Brandon Marshall.

It suggests he might be that if he's playing at 237-240 (he's listed at 247).

It also suggests that at 245-250 he could be seen as a much better version of Rob Housler (see long, lean TEs above -- Housler is in that group though I didn't mention him).

Given his combine weight of 237 and his revised 40 time of 4.45 I've leaned towards the WR side of the tweener options. And if that's what you thought two years ago I can promise you there's no way you'd be backing off that now watching him play in actual NFL games.

But exactly what he is is irrelevant. I'm just trying to use historical comps to get to a pre-NFL evaluation that helps me sort guys into elite/non-elite/useless bins. Green landed in the elite bin based on his range of comps, but the tweener thing added some doubt and then the NFL didn't draft him until the fourth round. So I considered him a high risk prospect and more of a "watch list" guy than a "must own" prospect.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

When you call him a physically superior version of Marshall - are we simply talking about his measurable physical traits? I think we're putting a lot into a 30 target sample size, when we bump him from an end of the bench guy, to a top 6 TE.

Well, obviously taller, bigger, faster is measurable. So yes on that count.

But when I plug Green into the WR model/algorithm/whatever his NCAA performance lines up with Marshall and Plax's pretty well. So he's physically superior and also has decent intution/receiving chops/vision/field awareness/whatever to go with it. And given that Green played as a TE in college you'd could argue that the measure of his receiving ability is actually understated (i.e. that a ending up with a measure similar to Marshall's and Plax's might actually represent more receving ability).

I have to question the model used, if it's suggesting Green is a "bigger, stronger, faster Brandon Marshall". We're talking about a top 2-5 WR in the NFL over the last 5+ seasons. Green's a nice prospect with great physical build. But he's closer to Robert Housler than Brandon Marshall.

I believe wdcrob's model compares them as prospects. So we're not talking about a top 2-5 WR over the last 5+ seasons, we're talking about a 4th round WR (who also played some safety).

The comparisons are comparing pre-NFL prospects to past pre-NFL prospects. So when I compare him to Brandon Marshall the model is agnostic on Marshall's career as a pro. It's just looking for propsects who were similar pre-draft.

There's no post-NFL info included, except that I use draft position to dial the risk levels up or down afterwards.

 

[Concept Coop]

The comparisons are comparing pre-NFL prospects to past pre-NFL prospects. So when I compare him to Brandon Marshall the model is agnostic on Marshall's career as a pro. It's just looking for propsects who were similar pre-draft.There's no post-NFL info included, except that I use draft position to dial the risk levels up or down afterwards.

That makes more sense. I took more from your mention of Marshall than you intended to suggest, I think.

 

[JFS171]

wdcrob - what's your model say about Brandon Bostick? Just out of curiosity.

Personally, I'm approaching TEs in dynasty right now from the perspective of cost. By that, and I've said this for a while, I just think we're entering a golden age here where once you get past the truly elite asset (Graham, Gronk) there's about 8-10 guys (potentially more) that will do just fine for you. When I look at all the young talent at the position, and consider how many of those guys weren't really that on the radar prior to this year... then add in the prospects coming down the pipe, and the developmental guys who now have a clear path to opportunity (e.g. Bostick), I'm not going to be the one paying for a 'breakout' guy like Green (though I am very high on him - had him rostered most of the first month of the season before injuries and byes forced my hand with roster spots).

Here's my point... and hopefully I don't leave anyone out.

Graham and Gronk - clear Tier 1 assets.

Cameron/Reed/Thomas - take your pick (I could make arguments for all three as next-in-line guys) - advantages but not Tier 1

Green/Vernon/Eifert/Fleener/Witten (using the informal list from SSOG above) - Fleener doesn't belong here IMO, but you've got guys who have popped, others who are the Tier 1 type prospects, and aging stars.

If I'm hunting for guys that can jump into that Cameron/Reed/Thomas group - the list (IMO) is pretty long if guys catch a few breaks. At this time last year the debate was between whether or not Cameron or Housler was a better stash. Cameron proved the winner, but because a TE-happy coach came to town while Housler deals with a coach never really known for utilizing the TE.

To sum up - there's a LONG list in my mind of guys that can jump up to the top 5-7 range in short order (next 12 months):

Bostick - elite athlete, being developed, coaches love the flashes, clear path

Housler - Arians isn't going anywhere, but no Roberts and an improved O could still help him capitalize on his upside

The Rookies - Ebron, ASJ, Amaro - would anyone really be surprised if they jumped into top-5 status in a year?

The forgottens - Dwayne Allen, for one. David Ausberry is another that immediately comes to mind as a guy that popped in preseason, then got hurt and is now way off the radar.

The Unknowns -- how cheap were guys like JT, Reed, Green before this year? In August? In September even?

I just don't see myself paying for TE production in the near future...

 

[Coeur de Lion]

wdcrob - what's your model say about Brandon Bostick? Just out of curiosity.

Personally, I'm approaching TEs in dynasty right now from the perspective of cost. By that, and I've said this for a while, I just think we're entering a golden age here where once you get past the truly elite asset (Graham, Gronk) there's about 8-10 guys (potentially more) that will do just fine for you. When I look at all the young talent at the position, and consider how many of those guys weren't really that on the radar prior to this year... then add in the prospects coming down the pipe, and the developmental guys who now have a clear path to opportunity (e.g. Bostick), I'm not going to be the one paying for a 'breakout' guy like Green (though I am very high on him - had him rostered most of the first month of the season before injuries and byes forced my hand with roster spots).

Here's my point... and hopefully I don't leave anyone out.

Graham and Gronk - clear Tier 1 assets.

Cameron/Reed/Thomas - take your pick (I could make arguments for all three as next-in-line guys) - advantages but not Tier 1

Green/Vernon/Eifert/Fleener/Witten (using the informal list from SSOG above) - Fleener doesn't belong here IMO, but you've got guys who have popped, others who are the Tier 1 type prospects, and aging stars.

If I'm hunting for guys that can jump into that Cameron/Reed/Thomas group - the list (IMO) is pretty long if guys catch a few breaks. At this time last year the debate was between whether or not Cameron or Housler was a better stash. Cameron proved the winner, but because a TE-happy coach came to town while Housler deals with a coach never really known for utilizing the TE.

To sum up - there's a LONG list in my mind of guys that can jump up to the top 5-7 range in short order (next 12 months):

Bostick - elite athlete, being developed, coaches love the flashes, clear path

Housler - Arians isn't going anywhere, but no Roberts and an improved O could still help him capitalize on his upside

The Rookies - Ebron, ASJ, Amaro - would anyone really be surprised if they jumped into top-5 status in a year?

The forgottens - Dwayne Allen, for one. David Ausberry is another that immediately comes to mind as a guy that popped in preseason, then got hurt and is now way off the radar.

The Unknowns -- how cheap were guys like JT, Reed, Green before this year? In August? In September even?

I just don't see myself paying for TE production in the near future...

I like Green a lot, own him in a few places, and tried to acquire him in the rest (unsuccessfully unfortunately). But in no way am I willing to cough up TE1 value for the guy when there's such an embarrassment of riches at the position. Not that it's in any way unreasonable to rank him there, but someone in the Ausberry, McDonald, Allen, Toilolo, Escobar, Bostick, etc tier is available for free in pretty much every league I'm in, which makes more sense than moving a future late 1st (or equivalent) for Green.

 

[EBF]

I can get on board with the idea of Clay being underrated. I think he's not getting more hype because he was a low profile guy in college, he dabbled some at FB, and he's really only starting this year because Dustin Keller got injured (presumably). So a lot of people might think he's just a no-name fluke.

I also agree that TE is deeper than ever before, which kind of devalues everyone who doesn't have a monster ceiling (and Clay with his smallish height will probably never be a huge red zone guy). There are waves of these athletic hybrid types coming into the league every season now and, looking at the college landscape, the trend will most likely continue.

 

[EBF]

wdcrob - what's your model say about Brandon Bostick? Just out of curiosity.

Personally, I'm approaching TEs in dynasty right now from the perspective of cost. By that, and I've said this for a while, I just think we're entering a golden age here where once you get past the truly elite asset (Graham, Gronk) there's about 8-10 guys (potentially more) that will do just fine for you. When I look at all the young talent at the position, and consider how many of those guys weren't really that on the radar prior to this year... then add in the prospects coming down the pipe, and the developmental guys who now have a clear path to opportunity (e.g. Bostick), I'm not going to be the one paying for a 'breakout' guy like Green (though I am very high on him - had him rostered most of the first month of the season before injuries and byes forced my hand with roster spots).

Here's my point... and hopefully I don't leave anyone out.

Graham and Gronk - clear Tier 1 assets.

Cameron/Reed/Thomas - take your pick (I could make arguments for all three as next-in-line guys) - advantages but not Tier 1

Green/Vernon/Eifert/Fleener/Witten (using the informal list from SSOG above) - Fleener doesn't belong here IMO, but you've got guys who have popped, others who are the Tier 1 type prospects, and aging stars.

If I'm hunting for guys that can jump into that Cameron/Reed/Thomas group - the list (IMO) is pretty long if guys catch a few breaks. At this time last year the debate was between whether or not Cameron or Housler was a better stash. Cameron proved the winner, but because a TE-happy coach came to town while Housler deals with a coach never really known for utilizing the TE.

To sum up - there's a LONG list in my mind of guys that can jump up to the top 5-7 range in short order (next 12 months):

Bostick - elite athlete, being developed, coaches love the flashes, clear path

Housler - Arians isn't going anywhere, but no Roberts and an improved O could still help him capitalize on his upside

The Rookies - Ebron, ASJ, Amaro - would anyone really be surprised if they jumped into top-5 status in a year?

The forgottens - Dwayne Allen, for one. David Ausberry is another that immediately comes to mind as a guy that popped in preseason, then got hurt and is now way off the radar.

The Unknowns -- how cheap were guys like JT, Reed, Green before this year? In August? In September even?

I just don't see myself paying for TE production in the near future...

I like Green a lot, own him in a few places, and tried to acquire him in the rest (unsuccessfully unfortunately). But in no way am I willing to cough up TE1 value for the guy when there's such an embarrassment of riches at the position. Not that it's in any way unreasonable to rank him there, but someone in the Ausberry, McDonald, Allen, Toilolo, Escobar, Bostick, etc tier is available for free in pretty much every league I'm in, which makes more sense than moving a future late 1st (or equivalent) for Green.

That was my guy going into the season. I dropped him in all my leagues once the Raiders put him on IR, but now that the year is winding down I've gone back and grabbed him almost everywhere. All indications were that he was in line to start this season. If the Raiders don't add anyone significant in the draft or free agency then he should be poised for another shot at a breakout next season. Free money off waivers if you've got room to stash him.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

wdcrob - what's your model say about Brandon Bostick? Just out of curiosity.

Personally, I'm approaching TEs in dynasty right now from the perspective of cost. By that, and I've said this for a while, I just think we're entering a golden age here where once you get past the truly elite asset (Graham, Gronk) there's about 8-10 guys (potentially more) that will do just fine for you. When I look at all the young talent at the position, and consider how many of those guys weren't really that on the radar prior to this year... then add in the prospects coming down the pipe, and the developmental guys who now have a clear path to opportunity (e.g. Bostick), I'm not going to be the one paying for a 'breakout' guy like Green (though I am very high on him - had him rostered most of the first month of the season before injuries and byes forced my hand with roster spots).

Here's my point... and hopefully I don't leave anyone out.

Graham and Gronk - clear Tier 1 assets.

Cameron/Reed/Thomas - take your pick (I could make arguments for all three as next-in-line guys) - advantages but not Tier 1

Green/Vernon/Eifert/Fleener/Witten (using the informal list from SSOG above) - Fleener doesn't belong here IMO, but you've got guys who have popped, others who are the Tier 1 type prospects, and aging stars.

If I'm hunting for guys that can jump into that Cameron/Reed/Thomas group - the list (IMO) is pretty long if guys catch a few breaks. At this time last year the debate was between whether or not Cameron or Housler was a better stash. Cameron proved the winner, but because a TE-happy coach came to town while Housler deals with a coach never really known for utilizing the TE.

To sum up - there's a LONG list in my mind of guys that can jump up to the top 5-7 range in short order (next 12 months):

Bostick - elite athlete, being developed, coaches love the flashes, clear path

Housler - Arians isn't going anywhere, but no Roberts and an improved O could still help him capitalize on his upside

The Rookies - Ebron, ASJ, Amaro - would anyone really be surprised if they jumped into top-5 status in a year?

The forgottens - Dwayne Allen, for one. David Ausberry is another that immediately comes to mind as a guy that popped in preseason, then got hurt and is now way off the radar.

The Unknowns -- how cheap were guys like JT, Reed, Green before this year? In August? In September even?

I just don't see myself paying for TE production in the near future...

I like Green a lot, own him in a few places, and tried to acquire him in the rest (unsuccessfully unfortunately). But in no way am I willing to cough up TE1 value for the guy when there's such an embarrassment of riches at the position. Not that it's in any way unreasonable to rank him there, but someone in the Ausberry, McDonald, Allen, Toilolo, Escobar, Bostick, etc tier is available for free in pretty much every league I'm in, which makes more sense than moving a future late 1st (or equivalent) for Green.

That was my guy going into the season. I dropped him in all my leagues once the Raiders put him on IR, but now that the year is winding down I've gone back and grabbed him almost everywhere. All indications were that he was in line to start this season. If the Raiders don't add anyone significant in the draft or free agency then he should be poised for another shot at a breakout next season. Free money off waivers if you've got room to stash him.

Agreed. I'm waffling between him and Dion Lewis right now for my IR spot in one league despite being ridiculously deep at TE (no premium) and thin at RB. Staying with Lewis ATM...

 

[JFS171]

Don't want to derail this, and obviously we all play in leagues of various sizes and depth. Some are very, very deep rosters. Others (like myself) are sometimes forced to cut the high-upside, non-producing, non-draft-pedgree types like Green to get past byes and injuries -- depth varies league to league.

BUT, I'd like to see some discussion on guys you'll be grabbing (OFF THE WAIVER WIRE -- not buy low trade targets) once you're eliminated from competing now with a chance that these guys pay off by next September. I know some, especially in shallower leagues, probably have various handcuffs rostered or low-upside guys to cover potential injuries. IMO the offseason is all about finding the guys that could completely explode (Jordan Cameron for example), and if they don't -- you move on.

I'll start the list, but would love to hear thoughts from others. I'm always chasing RBs as they're gold in my league, so my thoughts lean more that way and toward TE given the recent discussion. Don't have a ton of WRs in mind...

QBs -- not sure there's a huge list of guys with a shot to pop in the next 12 months - we'd need to look for likely trade candidates

1) Kirk Cousins - if WAS is committed to RGIII, they could use more picks/players to build around him

2) Ryan Mallet - what if NE decides to cash him in and develop another guy behind Brady?

3) Osweiler - suppose stranger things have happened than an old QB retiring after a SB run, though I'd be very surprised if Peyton hung them up this soon

RBs -- Big list here IMO (not necessarily in order)

1) CJ Anderson -- Moreno's contract up and I'm personally not a believer in Ball. Curious to see how Anderson pans out.

2) Gerhart -- Free Agent former 2nd rounder who's played well when given a shot

3) Brandon Bolden -- may be a FA in a few leagues, and with Ridley's situation up in the air (according to Mike Reiss), Bolden could inherit quite a role next year

4) Latavius Murray -- DMC likely gone; we'll see what happens with Jennings

5) Dion Lewis -- guy looked fantastic in August, and is expected to be fully recovered. Chud and Norv were looking for "their type of RB" - could be Lewis

6) Michael Cox -- clearly wasn't ready this year, but he was a raw 7th round rookie. Wilson's career is in question with the neck injury, and no other RBs are under contract for 2014. Long shot, but all of these are going to be long shots.

TEs

1) Brandon Bostick-- situation: check. Athletic traits: check.

2) David Ausberry - for reasons mentioned above. Guy was in line to be Oakland's starting TE - could be a big weapon for them next year

3) Rookie that hasn't made noise yet -- Escobar, McDonald, Kelce, etc.

WRs

1) Andre Holmes -- big guy, decent wheels, starting to show (may not be available)

2) Ace Sanders -- little guy, not much in terms of measurable long speed, but he's been very effective in small spaces and the Jags are scheming for him

3) Tavarres King -- deep on Carolina's depth chart, but three separate franchises wanted him this year, and there's opportunity in CAR

What do you guys have to add?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The WW guys I'm rostering right now are:

Bray

L James, CJ Anderson, B Bolden, M Leshoure

D Alexander, Q Patton, S Bailey, C Johnson, J Hemingway

The list feels thin to me right now -- mostly because the two or three guys I like most are in bad situations today.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Deeper leagues I am looking at guys who flashed in camp/preseason or were sleepers who just seemed to be buried all year.

Brian Hoyer

Jordan Todman - probably rostered as a handcuff ATM

Bennie Cunningham - same

Khiry Robinson

Rex Burkhead

Cierre Wood

Spencer Ware

Zach Line

Aaron Mellette

Jaron Brown

Brice Butler - none of these WR are great

Ryan Griffin

Luke Willson

Zach Sudfeld

 

[JFS171]

Deeper leagues I am looking at guys who flashed in camp/preseason or were sleepers who just seemed to be buried all year.

Brian Hoyer

Jordan Todman - probably rostered as a handcuff ATM

Bennie Cunningham - same

Khiry Robinson

Rex Burkhead

Cierre Wood

Spencer Ware

Zach Line

Aaron Mellette

Jaron Brown

Brice Butler - none of these WR are great

Ryan Griffin

Luke Willson

Zach Sudfeld

Cierre Wood - interesting one. Have to wonder where he'd be if he didn't get himself kicked off the Texans roster.

Sitting on the Pats practice squad, and given the whispers of the beat writers that they could part ways with Ridley this year, and with Blount not under contract... could see a Wood vs. Bolden battle for a pretty big role in that offense.

 

[EBF]

Don't want to derail this, and obviously we all play in leagues of various sizes and depth. Some are very, very deep rosters. Others (like myself) are sometimes forced to cut the high-upside, non-producing, non-draft-pedgree types like Green to get past byes and injuries -- depth varies league to league.

BUT, I'd like to see some discussion on guys you'll be grabbing (OFF THE WAIVER WIRE -- not buy low trade targets) once you're eliminated from competing now with a chance that these guys pay off by next September. I know some, especially in shallower leagues, probably have various handcuffs rostered or low-upside guys to cover potential injuries. IMO the offseason is all about finding the guys that could completely explode (Jordan Cameron for example), and if they don't -- you move on.

I'll start the list, but would love to hear thoughts from others. I'm always chasing RBs as they're gold in my league, so my thoughts lean more that way and toward TE given the recent discussion. Don't have a ton of WRs in mind...

QBs -- not sure there's a huge list of guys with a shot to pop in the next 12 months - we'd need to look for likely trade candidates

1) Kirk Cousins - if WAS is committed to RGIII, they could use more picks/players to build around him

2) Ryan Mallet - what if NE decides to cash him in and develop another guy behind Brady?

3) Osweiler - suppose stranger things have happened than an old QB retiring after a SB run, though I'd be very surprised if Peyton hung them up this soon

RBs -- Big list here IMO (not necessarily in order)

1) CJ Anderson -- Moreno's contract up and I'm personally not a believer in Ball. Curious to see how Anderson pans out.

2) Gerhart -- Free Agent former 2nd rounder who's played well when given a shot

3) Brandon Bolden -- may be a FA in a few leagues, and with Ridley's situation up in the air (according to Mike Reiss), Bolden could inherit quite a role next year

4) Latavius Murray -- DMC likely gone; we'll see what happens with Jennings

5) Dion Lewis -- guy looked fantastic in August, and is expected to be fully recovered. Chud and Norv were looking for "their type of RB" - could be Lewis

6) Michael Cox -- clearly wasn't ready this year, but he was a raw 7th round rookie. Wilson's career is in question with the neck injury, and no other RBs are under contract for 2014. Long shot, but all of these are going to be long shots.

TEs

1) Brandon Bostick-- situation: check. Athletic traits: check.

2) David Ausberry - for reasons mentioned above. Guy was in line to be Oakland's starting TE - could be a big weapon for them next year

3) Rookie that hasn't made noise yet -- Escobar, McDonald, Kelce, etc.

WRs

1) Andre Holmes -- big guy, decent wheels, starting to show (may not be available)

2) Ace Sanders -- little guy, not much in terms of measurable long speed, but he's been very effective in small spaces and the Jags are scheming for him

3) Tavarres King -- deep on Carolina's depth chart, but three separate franchises wanted him this year, and there's opportunity in CAR

What do you guys have to add?

I saw a lot of Osweiler in college. Always felt he was too much of a Jekkyl and Hyde to trust. I have a strong preference for productive QBs vs. project types, so consider me a skeptic there. He could be an average starter. Anything more would surprise me. Foles, Barkley, and Luck looked a lot better to me at the college level. More consistent. Osweiler was more erratic. Like a rich man's Derek Anderson, which is basically Jay Cutler/Joe Flacco at best.

I like Mallett most of that QB group. Rocket arm. Towering frame. Awesome college stats. He's a pathetic athlete and his New England preseason performances have been a little erratic, but there's just one year left on his rookie deal now and with QB being a constant need in the NFL I think it's near guaranteed that he'll get his shot to start within the next 12-24 months. I think he has more upside than Osweiler or Cousins. He's been my go-to late round QB flyer the last couple years.

Of your RB group, I like Gerhart most because he's got a dirt cheap price tag and an immediate chance to pop in value if someone like Jax, Oakland, or Cleveland signs him. If he goes to a backup role, you can just cut him or trade him cheap for handcuff value.

I've got Bolden in one or two leagues. I think he's a pretty average runner, but maybe he'll get 1-2 years somewhere as a stopgap guy.

I thought CJ Anderson was pretty decent at Cal and I think he's got a chance to push Ball. Worth a flyer if he's on waivers.

Dion Lewis is a player that I liked a lot at Pitt. With there being no real featured back on Cleveland's roster at the moment, he's also well worth a stash.

Ace Sanders was one of my favorite players in the last draft. If I were an NFL GM, I would've picked him in the third round for his punt return and slot value. The problem is that this kind of player doesn't usually have much FF value. He has awesome quickness, but he's really short and not all that fast. I'm actually stashing him in a few deep leagues. My expectations are not sky high though. He will need to be fed targets like Welker to have steady FF value.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I can get on board with the idea of Clay being underrated. I think he's not getting more hype because he was a low profile guy in college, he dabbled some at FB, and he's really only starting this year because Dustin Keller got injured (presumably). So a lot of people might think he's just a no-name fluke.

I also agree that TE is deeper than ever before, which kind of devalues everyone who doesn't have a monster ceiling (and Clay with his smallish height will probably never be a huge red zone guy). There are waves of these athletic hybrid types coming into the league every season now and, looking at the college landscape, the trend will most likely continue.

Clay may be undersized for a TE, but he's also the only TE in the league who will get goal line carries. So there's that.

 

[Adam Harstad]

A lot of good names covered, but I just wanted to highlight Danario Alexander again (I believe wdcrob already mentioned him). Guy is a PPG monster, but he's also one of the few (perhaps the only) guys in the NFL who is absolutely, positively, 100% legitimately injury prone. Who knows if he ever plays again. If he does, though, he's a good bet to provide some strong starts. For an end-of-roster stash, that's the kind of guy I want to be gambling on. Worst case scenario, he tears a half dozen more ACLs before next season and you can cut him and move on. There's literally zero albatross risk.

 

[JFS171]

Wanted to flesh out the WR list of potential adds from the wire with a chance to pop in the short term. Again, leagues are all different, but I assume given the discussion and not complete ignoring of my previous post, we're touching on something others find helpful and useful. As such, I'll use the wire from my 16-team dynasty and list guys I personally find interesting. Can't roster them all, of course, and odds are they end up back on the wire for a rookie pick...

-- Josh Boyce (starting to get more play, returning kicks, strong athletic profile)

-- Junior Hemingway (wdcrob likely has a lot more to add here)

-- Jermaine Kearse (Seattle WR corps are about to open up after this year with no Rice or Tate; does Percy get all the way back?)

-- Brian Quick (we knew he was a massive project - will he continue to develop or is he a bust?)

-- Stedman Bailey (has his supporters - starting to flash)

-- Aldrick Robinson (strong athletic profile - but hasn't produced much to this point)

-- A.J. Jenkins (signs of life in KC? Former 1st Rounder, but man what a bust so far)

-- Chris Givens (complete nosedive this year - exposed as a 1-trick deep threat?)

-- Nick Toon (still waiting - passed by Stills now?)

There's other deeper guys as well (Charles Johnson, Mellette, Brice Butler, Jaron Brown, etc.)

Any further thoughts here? IF you're picking one guy to pop by end of next preseason, who you got?

 

[battlebaby]

Wanted to flesh out the WR list of potential adds from the wire with a chance to pop in the short term. Again, leagues are all different, but I assume given the discussion and not complete ignoring of my previous post, we're touching on something others find helpful and useful. As such, I'll use the wire from my 16-team dynasty and list guys I personally find interesting. Can't roster them all, of course, and odds are they end up back on the wire for a rookie pick...

-- Josh Boyce (starting to get more play, returning kicks, strong athletic profile)

-- Junior Hemingway (wdcrob likely has a lot more to add here)

-- Jermaine Kearse (Seattle WR corps are about to open up after this year with no Rice or Tate; does Percy get all the way back?)

-- Brian Quick (we knew he was a massive project - will he continue to develop or is he a bust?)

-- Stedman Bailey (has his supporters - starting to flash)

-- Aldrick Robinson (strong athletic profile - but hasn't produced much to this point)

-- A.J. Jenkins (signs of life in KC? Former 1st Rounder, but man what a bust so far)

-- Chris Givens (complete nosedive this year - exposed as a 1-trick deep threat?)

-- Nick Toon (still waiting - passed by Stills now?)

There's other deeper guys as well (Charles Johnson, Mellette, Brice Butler, Jaron Brown, etc.)

Any further thoughts here? IF you're picking one guy to pop by end of next preseason, who you got?

Maybe it's just me, but I'm leaning towards A.J. Jenkins. Reid made that trade for him because he likes his speedy receivers...DJax had some good seasons under Reid and McCluster is a UFA next year. Alex Smith gets knocked all the time for not having a strong arm, but that's not really true...he can throw it downfield just fine, he's just been conditioned to constantly look for the short screen and checkdown with his years in the SF offense. Donnie Avery is a stopgap WR and Dwayne Bowe needs a fast complimentary WR to open up the field for him. Jenkins certainly hasn't impressed anyone yet in his pro career, but I'm not ready to write him off just yet...he was really incredible in college.

 

[EBF]

Wanted to flesh out the WR list of potential adds from the wire with a chance to pop in the short term. Again, leagues are all different, but I assume given the discussion and not complete ignoring of my previous post, we're touching on something others find helpful and useful. As such, I'll use the wire from my 16-team dynasty and list guys I personally find interesting. Can't roster them all, of course, and odds are they end up back on the wire for a rookie pick...

-- Josh Boyce (starting to get more play, returning kicks, strong athletic profile)

-- Junior Hemingway (wdcrob likely has a lot more to add here)

-- Jermaine Kearse (Seattle WR corps are about to open up after this year with no Rice or Tate; does Percy get all the way back?)

-- Brian Quick (we knew he was a massive project - will he continue to develop or is he a bust?)

-- Stedman Bailey (has his supporters - starting to flash)

-- Aldrick Robinson (strong athletic profile - but hasn't produced much to this point)

-- A.J. Jenkins (signs of life in KC? Former 1st Rounder, but man what a bust so far)

-- Chris Givens (complete nosedive this year - exposed as a 1-trick deep threat?)

-- Nick Toon (still waiting - passed by Stills now?)

There's other deeper guys as well (Charles Johnson, Mellette, Brice Butler, Jaron Brown, etc.)

Any further thoughts here? IF you're picking one guy to pop by end of next preseason, who you got?

Givens has shown that he can be useful. I don't know if there's much of a ceiling there, but at least he's good enough to get on the field.

Toon is intriguing purely because of his team/draft slot/measurables. I don't find him that impressive subjectively. The situation is nice though.

I still think Boyce is more likely than not to become some kind of a factor in the NFL. I've been disappointed by his quiet rookie year and he has certainly fallen in my estimation, but I have a tough time believing he's just going to wash out of the league. He was pretty good in college and he has some real standout athletic qualities. He was also a reasonably high pick. I don't know that he'll ever be good enough to be startable in FF leagues, but I'd at least back him to claim some kind of complementary role in the coming seasons. There was a little story on him recently out of the New England press:

Sunday's win over Houston presented an opportunity for a few unheralded Patriots to make their mark.

Rookie receiver Josh Boyce's activation against the Texans marked his second game in seven weeks. Though he played just 16 of 70 offensive snaps, he really made his presence known on special teams.

Boyce returned six kicks for 149 yards. His longest, a 41-yard haul, was the longest New England has had all season. The Patriots rewarded his run by capitalizing on the field position and scoring a touchdown just six plays later.

"Josh Boyce has worked hard since we drafted him," offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels noted Tuesday. "He hasn't had that many opportunities but that certainly hasn't affected his attitude or work ethic. I think he's a great example of a younger player who's got the right attitude and approach. He's really given the defensive multiple looks throughout the course of the season. He's really worked hard at trying to learn the nuances of doing the kickoff returns. And he's ready to go an play at multiple spots in our offense, which is a very big positive for a younger player.

"The other day he got thrown in there and played multiple positions, didn't have any mental errors. And I think he caught a ball and helped us in some situations, getting some things lined up, and a run that he hadn't practiced a whole lot over the course of the week. I'm really happy to have him on our team."

Beyond the guys you listed, I've grabbed DeVier Posey off the WW in a couple deep leagues. He kinda fits the mold of what I look for in a prospect. High NFL pick with decent tools who has shown some flashes of life. He seems to be recovered from his Achilles injury. Depending on how gracefully Andre Johnson ages, there may be some opportunity for him in Houston in the next couple years.

 

[EBF]

Deeper leagues I am looking at guys who flashed in camp/preseason or were sleepers who just seemed to be buried all year.

Spencer Ware

I've grabbed Ware as an insurance policy in every league where I also own Christine Michael. I believe Michael is a lot more talented than Ware, but I also think he might be genuinely injury-prone, so I think it makes some sense to try to lock down his backup too. I think Ware has a pretty good chance to pip Turbin to that role long term and he strikes me as one of those Bolden/BJGE/Ballard types who could be a serviceable option when thrust into duty.

 

[Tau837]

-- Jermaine Kearse (Seattle WR corps are about to open up after this year with no Rice or Tate; does Percy get all the way back?)

It isn't a given that Rice is out, though it seems likely. Nor is it a given that Tate will not resign with Seattle. Also note that Baldwin is a RFA after this season. There is no certainty as to whether any or all of these players will be back next season.

 

[Milkman]

So how far are we moving Da'Rick Rogers up the wr rankings? He seems to be in an excellent position given who his QB is and the fact he really doesn't have anybody ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Worth mentioning that after yesterday Charles Clay is TE6 using total points. And he's 24 in his first year as a starter in an average passing game.

In regular PPR leagues he's behind only the big five in ppg (excluding Pitta), basically tied with Daniels and Gonzo and ahead of Jordan Reed, Witten, Gates, Finley, Olsen, etc.

I can see bumping Clay behind guys you think are elite prospects (Fleener, Eifert, Ebron?), but there's really no way to keep him out of the top ten at this point IMO.

 

[duaneok66]

I don't know about Rogers, but I think it's a given that the Colts draft multiple wideouts in the draft.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Worth mentioning that after yesterday Charles Clay is TE6 using total points. And he's 24 in his first year as a starter in an average passing game.

In regular PPR leagues he's behind only the big five in ppg (excluding Pitta), basically tied with Daniels and Gonzo and ahead of Jordan Reed, Witten, Gates, Finley, Olsen, etc.

I can see bumping Clay behind guys you think are elite prospects (Fleener, Eifert, Ebron?), but there's really no way to keep him out of the top ten at this point IMO.

Hard to argue at this point. He's been the best fantasy TE in the league for the past month.

I don't think he's got the Graham/Gronk type of ceiling, but his measurables line up very well with Aaron Hernandez and Fred Davis. (tip of the cap to wdcrob). Both of those guys turned out to be mental midgets and self destructed their own careers. Maybe Clay will be the guy that shows us what they could have been.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

There's a couple of threads on Justin Hunter, but not too much discussion in here regarding his dynasty value. Looking around the dynasty rankings landscape, the disparity between Hunter and Patterson/Hopkins remains huge. The latter pair are considered top 15 WRs by many. Meanwhile, Hunter is widely considered between WR40-50.

I just don't see the reason for the disparity. He's an elite athlete even by NFL WR standards, and it's already begun showing up on Sundays. It's like there's some sort of mystique about being a NFL 1st rounder. Fact is the trio went within 8 picks of one another. Hopkins (26), Patterson (28), Hunter (34). If Hunter would have been picked 3 spots earlier would he be 20-30 spots higher in dynasty rankings?

Seems to me like Hunters' situation is as good if not better than either of the other guys.

 

[duaneok66]

Hunter >> Hopkins in ability and situation.

 

[Adam Harstad]

There's a couple of threads on Justin Hunter, but not too much discussion in here regarding his dynasty value. Looking around the dynasty rankings landscape, the disparity between Hunter and Patterson/Hopkins remains huge. The latter pair are considered top 15 WRs by many. Meanwhile, Hunter is widely considered between WR40-50.

I just don't see the reason for the disparity. He's an elite athlete even by NFL WR standards, and it's already begun showing up on Sundays. It's like there's some sort of mystique about being a NFL 1st rounder. Fact is the trio went within 8 picks of one another. Hopkins (26), Patterson (28), Hunter (34). If Hunter would have been picked 3 spots earlier would he be 20-30 spots higher in dynasty rankings?

Seems to me like Hunters' situation is as good if not better than either of the other guys.

I had to recheck my rankings, because I largely agree. I've got Hopkins at 16, Patterson at 30, and Hunter at 38. Patterson and Hunter are both due for a jump when I update, and if I'm being honest, Hopkins is too high because I anchored on his early-season success and have been slow to update for additional information. There's not much difference between the three of them, although Hopkins was the first one off the board and the one I liked best coming into the season, so he'd probably still be my choice today. Hunter vs. Patterson is a close call for me right now. Hunter was slow to get involved in Tennessee's offense, but it's not like Patterson got worked in any quicker.

 

[battlebaby]

I don't know about Rogers, but I think it's a given that the Colts draft multiple wideouts in the draft.

I don't know if that's necessarily true. Reggie Wayne has another year left on his contract and Da'Rick Rogers has the possibility of developing into a great WR for IND...he's already shown his enormous upside. Lavon Brazill may start to produce now with Rogers on the field to open up defenses, too. IND may draft a mid-round WR, but they have so many other holes to repair...with no 1st round pick, they really need to address their defense early on in the draft...their pass rush and secondary are big concerns. DHB will be gone next year, so I think IND may go after another free agent WR...Decker will be out of their price range, but Emmanuel Sanders would be a good bet. He'd be a great signing for IND...he's actually able to catch passes.

 

[duaneok66]

Forgot about Sanders. He's not a great WR, but he will get a nice contract from some team that needs a decent wideout, whether its the Colts or another team.

 

[ctt8410]

So where are you guys slotting Lacy in your RB rankings?

I'm not updating again until next Monday/Tuesday, but it's looking likely Lacy will be in my top 10 once I do.

Do you mind if I ask why you're so low on Alshon Jeffery (WR32)? He has measurables and pedigree and seems to be in the midst of a 2nd year breakout with a stable (if not particularly QB rich) franchise and yet he falls behind low-upside guys like Amendola and Shorts.

Well, for starters, I don't view either Amendola or Shorts as anything close to "low-upside" guys in PPR leagues. Shorts' numbers after taking over as a starter last year were insane- something like a 1400 yard pace, IIRC. If not for the concussion worries, Shorts would be higher, still. As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola. If Amendola can stay healthy (yeah, yeah, I know- big if), he could easily put up top-12 numbers as the slot receiver in the Patriots' offense. If anything, I would characterize Amendola and Shorts as just the opposite of "low-upside"; I'd call them huge high-risk, high-reward plays.

To some extent, there's a bit of a numbers crunch at receiver. There are more than 10 guys I'd love to fit into my 20-29 range right now, and some of them get squeezed out. Why Alshon? Because I try to make a point of downgrading players who have had a huge game below where my gut reaction would have me put them. Even at the half-season mark, one huge game can have a huge impact on total numbers when there hasn't been enough of a chance for regression to do its work yet. Intuitively, I see an exciting young prospect like Alshon have a monster game and my first instinct is to just go nuts and shoot them up the board. I find that slightly discounting guys with a huge game on their resume often prevents me from overreacting and doing something that I'll regret later.

I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Amendola's a 28-year old who can't stay healthy and whose best season is 85/689/3 and WR30 in ppr. He's not Edelman, but he's also not Welker.

It's perfectly within reason to cast a skeptical eye towards Jeffery based on the small sample size, but I don't see how he's a lower ceiling guy than those 2 when he's shown the ability to put up a 37-pointer within the first 16 games of his career.

Since this post:

Jeffery - 42/632/4

Amendola - 22/274/2

Shorts - 20/212/2

Now seems like a good time to reiterate that upside can be deceptive. A mediocre player with high volume from a bad QB can give the illusion of higher upside when he's already peaked. The same can be said for a mediocre, injury-prone talent replacing the generational talent with a HOF QB. It was a fool's errand a month ago to assume these players had any upside beyond their recent production and it rings even truer now.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

You still aren't getting it, if you think Shorts is a mediocre player.

Of course he's not Jeffery. He also hasn't hit his ceiling. Which means he has plenty of upside. He's a good WR.

 

[karmarooster]

I've never seen anyone catch the ball quite like Jeffery. Between that catch a few weeks ago, and last night... he makes amazing grabs, but with a distinctive pattern. He's got his hands way out away from his body, and catches the ball completely with his hands, but with one hand on the top of the ball and the other hand on the bottom. And he seems to have no qualms about keeping his hands up while falling down, making no effort to break his fall. Great hands with an interesting technique.

His value has jumped Marshall's, for a current contender and especially for a rebuilder.

 

[lod01]

I don't know about Rogers, but I think it's a given that the Colts draft multiple wideouts in the draft.

Rogers is a 1st round talent. Rogers is better than any they pick because if they do take them they will be very late rd picks. The team has so many other holes to fill. Those holes will be filled 1st.

 

[Spike]

1. It's not really a "gimmicky" offense, unless you'd call a west coast offense a gimmick - it's more of a style of attack. Also the "inflation" is merely due to the hurry up nature leading to more snaps (more snaps = more potential statistics). A defense can't really counteract that legally.

There is plenty about their offense that falls outside of a traditional west coast offense, and outside of the hurry up aspect. I'm certainly coming around on Foles, and I think all of us are. But, I do think there is reason to question how much of his production comes from the system.

I think, a year from now, we'll be able to look back on trades that take place in the new few months involving Foles and say, "Wow!" For both good and bad.

 

[duaneok66]

I don't know about that. It's rare that a true "first round talent" goes undrafted. Usually those guys slip a few rounds, but not all the way out of the draft. Also, Rogers ran a 4.52 at the combine. That 4.38 that someone floated out there must have been from a pro day.

 

[jeter23]

A few of us did a 6 round dynasty startup mock last night. I took Jeffery at 2.01 and there were multiple comments saying that he was next on their list, etc. I look for him to routinely be a 1st rounder this off-season.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I don't know about that. It's rare that a true "first round talent" goes undrafted. Usually those guys slip a few rounds, but not all the way out of the draft. Also, Rogers ran a 4.52 at the combine. That 4.38 that someone floated out there must have been from a pro day.

Agree with this; it's really dangerous to put that "first round talent" label on a guy who wasn't drafted there, much less wasn't even drafted at all and has already been cut by one team.Granted, Rogers has far more physical talent than your typical UDFA, but I'd be pretty cautious valuing him as if he were an actual 1st rounder. If nothing else, he's on a much shorter leash than he would be had the team actually invested a high pick and the associated $ in him. And that could potentially be a big deal given the character issues associated with him.

I'd love to have him as an upside stash, but IMO the "Colts' WR1 moving forward" hype is too much at this point. If you grabbed him off waivers, nicely done. But he's being oversold right now and will likely be over drafted in next years' startups, IMO.

 

[bigums]

I don't know about that. It's rare that a true "first round talent" goes undrafted. Usually those guys slip a few rounds, but not all the way out of the draft. Also, Rogers ran a 4.52 at the combine. That 4.38 that someone floated out there must have been from a pro day.

Sure the 4.52 isn't great, but he was the top performer in 5 other events, including all of the "explosive" categories like jumping, shuttle, and 3 cone. Before being booted to TTech, he was called a Julio Jones clone. His main issue is in his head which manifests off the field as well as his effort level on the field. I think he's the kind of guy who has first round "upside", but is also one more immature decision away from working at McDonalds.

 

[battlebaby]

What are the thoughts on T.J. Moe's prospects for next season? He was a combine standout...was projected to be a good, physical slot WR. Edelman is an UFA next season and Moe was given more guaranteed money than any of NE's other UDFA. With how Amendola is made of glass, think Moe could show something next year?

 

[JFS171]

What are the thoughts on T.J. Moe's prospects for next season? He was a combine standout...was projected to be a good, physical slot WR. Edelman is an UFA next season and Moe was given more guaranteed money than any of NE's other UDFA. With how Amendola is made of glass, think Moe could show something next year?

When it comes to NE, I'm more interested in seeing what Boyce continues to show down the stretch. Returning kicks, so he's got the explosiveness and agility to win in tight spaces. Was already getting more run at WR due to the injuries to Dobson and Thompkins. Some had speculated Boyce's best position would be in the slot in the long term, though he's learning all positions and started at the X this past week. In addition to pulling down 3 for 49 (nothing too special) he did draw the PI that led to the game winner from Brady.

Personally don't know a ton about Moe, but we're seeing flashes from the other guys. Would think Moe would have quite a tough climb up the depth chart and past potential FA acquisitions (remember the Pats tried to sign Sanders last year)...

 

[karmarooster]

A few of us did a 6 round dynasty startup mock last night. I took Jeffery at 2.01 and there were multiple comments saying that he was next on their list, etc. I look for him to routinely be a 1st rounder this off-season.

Could you share the first 10-12 drafted WRs?

Or, share the draft board thru 6 rounds?

 

[Andrew74]

I don't know about that. It's rare that a true "first round talent" goes undrafted. Usually those guys slip a few rounds, but not all the way out of the draft. Also, Rogers ran a 4.52 at the combine. That 4.38 that someone floated out there must have been from a pro day.

Agree with this; it's really dangerous to put that "first round talent" label on a guy who wasn't drafted there, much less wasn't even drafted at all and has already been cut by one team.Granted, Rogers has far more physical talent than your typical UDFA, but I'd be pretty cautious valuing him as if he were an actual 1st rounder. If nothing else, he's on a much shorter leash than he would be had the team actually invested a high pick and the associated $ in him. And that could potentially be a big deal given the character issues associated with him.

I'd love to have him as an upside stash, but IMO the "Colts' WR1 moving forward" hype is too much at this point. If you grabbed him off waivers, nicely done. But he's being oversold right now and will likely be over drafted in next years' startups, IMO.