Dynasty Rankings (14 Viewers)

[Adam Harstad]

So where are you guys slotting Lacy in your RB rankings?

I'm not updating again until next Monday/Tuesday, but it's looking likely Lacy will be in my top 10 once I do.

Do you mind if I ask why you're so low on Alshon Jeffery (WR32)? He has measurables and pedigree and seems to be in the midst of a 2nd year breakout with a stable (if not particularly QB rich) franchise and yet he falls behind low-upside guys like Amendola and Shorts.

Well, for starters, I don't view either Amendola or Shorts as anything close to "low-upside" guys in PPR leagues. Shorts' numbers after taking over as a starter last year were insane- something like a 1400 yard pace, IIRC. If not for the concussion worries, Shorts would be higher, still. As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola. If Amendola can stay healthy (yeah, yeah, I know- big if), he could easily put up top-12 numbers as the slot receiver in the Patriots' offense. If anything, I would characterize Amendola and Shorts as just the opposite of "low-upside"; I'd call them huge high-risk, high-reward plays.

To some extent, there's a bit of a numbers crunch at receiver. There are more than 10 guys I'd love to fit into my 20-29 range right now, and some of them get squeezed out. Why Alshon? Because I try to make a point of downgrading players who have had a huge game below where my gut reaction would have me put them. Even at the half-season mark, one huge game can have a huge impact on total numbers when there hasn't been enough of a chance for regression to do its work yet. Intuitively, I see an exciting young prospect like Alshon have a monster game and my first instinct is to just go nuts and shoot them up the board. I find that slightly discounting guys with a huge game on their resume often prevents me from overreacting and doing something that I'll regret later.

I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Amendola's a 28-year old who can't stay healthy and whose best season is 85/689/3 and WR30 in ppr. He's not Edelman, but he's also not Welker.

It's perfectly within reason to cast a skeptical eye towards Jeffery based on the small sample size, but I don't see how he's a lower ceiling guy than those 2 when he's shown the ability to put up a 37-pointer within the first 16 games of his career.

Since this post:

Jeffery - 42/632/4

Amendola - 22/274/2

Shorts - 20/212/2

Now seems like a good time to reiterate that upside can be deceptive. A mediocre player with high volume from a bad QB can give the illusion of higher upside when he's already peaked. The same can be said for a mediocre, injury-prone talent replacing the generational talent with a HOF QB. It was a fool's errand a month ago to assume these players had any upside beyond their recent production and it rings even truer now.

It's equally foolish to hold up a bad month by a receiver who has produced a lot of substantially better months as proof that he has a low upside. You know that recent production doesn't demonstrate a single thing about a player's upside, right?

I mean, perhaps I'm not understanding this conversation. Upside, to me, is the best a player can realistically be expected to do. So when Cecil Shorts actually, honestly and truly averaged 80+ receiving yards per game over half a season with garbage QBs and a sustainable target pace (pro-rates to about 150 over a full season), that to me suggests the best we could realistically expect him to do would be... at least 80 yards per game. If he comes back next year and only does 60 yards per game, it's nonsensical to say "This is his upside" (your quote, not mine). No, this is not his upside. This is how he's performing right now, but his upside is the best he can reasonably produce, and we know he can reasonably produce better than this based on the fact that he's reasonably produced better than this.

Julian Edelman has been a PPR monster this year when he's been the slot receiver for the Patriots. You can't tell me that Wes Welker took all that slot value out of New England when he left, because a mediocre talent like Edelman has been lighting it up in the Welker role, still. Maybe I was wrong about Amendola's ability to stay healthy or to take over that role, but again, we're talking about best realistically achievable production, and based on the fact that "NE Slot Receiver is a PPR machine" and "Danny Amendola has a realistic chance to become NE Slot Receiver", I'd say that Danny Amendola's best realistically achievable production would be "PPR machine". I think a 120 reception season is doable for Amendola. Will he do it? Probably not, but that's not the discussion. Upside is about "can he", not necessarily "will he", and in this case, I think he can.

If you want to downgrade Shorts because his offense is a dumpster fire and he's a major concussion risk, that's fine. If you want to downgrade Amendola because he can't stay healthy and you think he sucks and will never win the slot role, that's fine. None of this says anything about their upside, though. I believed at the time that both players had top-12 upside. I still believe that today, without question. I believe a lot of receivers have top-12 upside, which is why I tend to be pretty cavalier about trading away receivers in the 30-50 range- there are lots of other guys available to replace them. Upside is just one piece of the equation, and since Jeffery is already producing at his upside and Shorts/Amendola are not, there's no question in my mind that I would dramatically prefer Jeffery... but that doesn't mean I've revised my estimate of Shorts/Amendola's upside.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I don't know about that. It's rare that a true "first round talent" goes undrafted. Usually those guys slip a few rounds, but not all the way out of the draft. Also, Rogers ran a 4.52 at the combine. That 4.38 that someone floated out there must have been from a pro day.

Sure the 4.52 isn't great, but he was the top performer in 5 other events, including all of the "explosive" categories like jumping, shuttle, and 3 cone. Before being booted to TTech, he was called a Julio Jones clone. His main issue is in his head which manifests off the field as well as his effort level on the field. I think he's the kind of guy who has first round "upside", but is also one more immature decision away from working at McDonalds.

Lots of people are called lots of things. Trent Richardson was called the next Adrian Peterson. Words don't mean a thing, only actions matter. If Da'Rick Rogers was a Julio Jones clone, he could have literally taken a dump on the doorstep of every GM in the league and someone still would have spent a 7th rounder on him.

I agree with Coeur that it's dangerous to call someone a "first round talent" when he wasn't drafted there. Draftniks, the guys who call people "first round talents", generally aren't as good as front offices, the guys responsible for drafting players in the first round. Imagine if Jon Dwyer had been suspended his final season for marijuana. He would have fallen to the 6th round all over again, and all of the draftniks would be calling him a first round talent who fell due to character issues when, in reality, the NFL just thought he was a crappy prospect. Ditto that for Lamar Miller, who the draftniks loved but who lasted to the 4th. If he'd had some character issues, some people would still be calling him a "1st round talent" (heck, even without character issues, I've seen someone call him a 2nd round talent recently). Those people would be wrong- NFL draft people thought he was a 4th round talent, and that the draftniks were wrong.

Maybe Da'Rick Rogers really was a 1st round talent and his character issues were so severe they caused him to fall 7+ rounds (despite most character issues only resulting in a 1-3 round drop). It seems more likely that Rogers was really a 3rd or 4th round talent who fell out due to character concerns, and who was overrated by draftniks.

 

[thriftyrocker]

There's upside in production and upside in value. Shorts and Amendola will never have WR1 upside in value. Jeffery is there right now.

 

[EBF]

Hindsight is 20/20. Shorts played very well last year. This year he is still putting up total stats, but the efficiency isn't there. He's doing a very poor job of converting targets into yards. Nowhere near what he did last season. If you predicted that, kudos to you. To say he never had upside is suspect though since if he maintained his 2012 performance this year he'd probably be a top 10-15 guy.

A lot of people thought Amendola had a chance to be the new Welker. Welker was never a freaky height/weight/speed athlete, but he put up elite FF numbers by amassing targets and catching lots of short passes. So far Amendola hasn't been able to match his output or even come close. To act like there was never a reason to think he had any upside seems pretty misguided though. There was an obvious scenario there that would've seen him be a top 10-15 ppg guy this year (him staying healthy and duplicating Welker's output). New England paid him quite a lot of money, so it's not like they didn't rate him.

In general, I think upside is usually going to come in the form of the prototypical height/weight/speed/explosiveness guys. And Jeffery definitely fits that mold better than those other two. On the other hand, those aren't the only kind of guys who can have huge seasons. Who on here predicted that Antonio Brown would have a top 3 WR season and be one of only two WRs in the entire league (along with Demaryius) who scored in double digits in every single game? I'm gonna go ahead and say nobody. I think he would've been pegged as a "low upside" guy in the offseason and look at him now. It's not always as easy to predict as people make it out to be, although I actually agree that the freaky size/speed guys are generally going to account for most of the top 10 seasons in any given year.

 

[Adam Harstad]

There's upside in production and upside in value. Shorts and Amendola will never have WR1 upside in value. Jeffery is there right now.

I do agree with this 100%. Shorts and Amendola are the kinds of receivers whose trade value will always lag their real value, and if you're incorporating trade value into your rankings, they'll probably wind up lower as a result.

 

[Gottabesweet]

So top ten WRs next year who dropped out and in?

Julio Jones how far does he slide haven't heard much on his foot but could be a problem long term?

 

[ConnSKINS26]

So top ten WRs next year who dropped out and in?

Julio Jones how far does he slide haven't heard much on his foot but could be a problem long term?

Can only speak for myself, but I'm not concerned about the foot at all. Top-3 dynasty WR still. Tried to buy him everywhere only succeeded in one league.

 

[fruity pebbles]

So top ten WRs next year who dropped out and in?

Julio Jones how far does he slide haven't heard much on his foot but could be a problem long term?

Mine:

1. Calvin

2. Green

3. Julio

4. Demaryius

5. Dez

6. Gordon

7. Jeffrey

8. Cobb

9. Cruz

10. Patterson

 

[new-guru]

A few of us did a 6 round dynasty startup mock last night. I took Jeffery at 2.01 and there were multiple comments saying that he was next on their list, etc. I look for him to routinely be a 1st rounder this off-season.

Could you share the first 10-12 drafted WRs?

Or, share the draft board thru 6 rounds?

 

[BeTheMatch]

So top ten WRs next year who dropped out and in?

Julio Jones how far does he slide haven't heard much on his foot but could be a problem long term?

Mine:

1. Calvin

2. Green

3. Julio

4. Demaryius

5. Dez

6. Gordon

7. Jeffrey

8. Cobb

9. Cruz

10. Patterson

I was with you every step of the way. Until I wasn't.

 

[fruity pebbles]

So top ten WRs next year who dropped out and in?

Julio Jones how far does he slide haven't heard much on his foot but could be a problem long term?

Mine:

1. Calvin

2. Green

3. Julio

4. Demaryius

5. Dez

6. Gordon

7. Jeffrey

8. Cobb

9. Cruz

10. Patterson

I was with you every step of the way. Until I wasn't.

Yeah, i knew Patterson would be controversial. This is my ranking for a startup. Ive been banging the Patterson drum for months, i admit im higher on him than most. Marshall would be #11. I could see taking him over Patterson depending on team.

 

[jeter23]

A few of us did a 6 round dynasty startup mock last night. I took Jeffery at 2.01 and there were multiple comments saying that he was next on their list, etc. I look for him to routinely be a 1st rounder this off-season.

Could you share the first 10-12 drafted WRs?

Or, share the draft board thru 6 rounds?

http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=72563&O=17

 

[jeter23]

So top ten WRs next year who dropped out and in?

Julio Jones how far does he slide haven't heard much on his foot but could be a problem long term?

If you're talking off-season startups/ADP, the top 6 are locks, in some order...

Calvin

Dez

Green

Julio

DT

Gordon

After that, I think Cobb and Jeffery are pretty much locked in as the next 2. Again, I know not everyone would rank/draft them this way, but this will be the consensus, IMO. So, that leaves 2 and it's wide open. Some that will be popular choices:

Marshall

Patterson

Floyd

Allen

Watkins

 

[duaneok66]

A few of us did a 6 round dynasty startup mock last night. I took Jeffery at 2.01 and there were multiple comments saying that he was next on their list, etc. I look for him to routinely be a 1st rounder this off-season.

Could you share the first 10-12 drafted WRs?

Or, share the draft board thru 6 rounds?

http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=72563&O=17

wow.

 

[jeter23]

A few of us did a 6 round dynasty startup mock last night. I took Jeffery at 2.01 and there were multiple comments saying that he was next on their list, etc. I look for him to routinely be a 1st rounder this off-season.

Could you share the first 10-12 drafted WRs?

Or, share the draft board thru 6 rounds?

http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=72563&O=17

wow.

Which? Gordon?

 

[EBF]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

A few of us did a 6 round dynasty startup mock last night. I took Jeffery at 2.01 and there were multiple comments saying that he was next on their list, etc. I look for him to routinely be a 1st rounder this off-season.

Could you share the first 10-12 drafted WRs?

Or, share the draft board thru 6 rounds?

http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=72563&O=17

wow.

Which? Gordon?

That's probably the first of many surprising picks. Inseason mocks looks quite a bit different than actual drafts where people have $ invested though. This mock in particular seems overly reactionary to how players fared in 2013.

 

[jeter23]

As some of you know, I run a ton of mocks for DLF. Starting in January, I will head up a total of nearly 50 off-season mocks to find ADP. One thing I have learned very quickly is not to react to "reaches." They really mean very little in the big picture of our leagues. It just means one guy likes him. If someone wants to take Gordon at 1.01, that does not mean he's suddenly worth more than every other player, just that one guy thinks so.

I think we can learn much more from "fallers." Just like in the NFL draft, it says a lot when 12 owners continue to pass over a specific player. If Trent Richardson goes late 1st in one mock, so what? If he goes in the 8th or 9th round, I am much more interested in that.

 

[duaneok66]

A few of us did a 6 round dynasty startup mock last night. I took Jeffery at 2.01 and there were multiple comments saying that he was next on their list, etc. I look for him to routinely be a 1st rounder this off-season.

Could you share the first 10-12 drafted WRs?

Or, share the draft board thru 6 rounds?

http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=72563&O=17

wow.

Which? Gordon?

among others.

 

[opensourcebeer]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

I can see an argument for Spiller, Lacy, Alf, Bell, or Murray ahead of Vereen. But I'd have no issue grabbing Vereen ahead of any of the RBs turning 28 or 29 heading into the 2014 season.

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

1. Calvin Johnson
2. Julio Jones
3. AJ Green
4. Demaryius Thomas
5. Alshon Jeffery
6. Dez Bryant
7. Josh Gordon
8. Marshall
9. Randall Cobb
10. Antonio Brown
Gordon gets dinged because of the whole one offense away from a one year suspension thing...

 

[EBF]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

I can see an argument for Spiller, Lacy, Alf, Bell, or Murray ahead of Vereen. But I'd have no issue grabbing Vereen ahead of any of the RBs turning 28 or 29 heading into the 2014 season.

My biggest issue with Vereen is that he doesn't run the ball. This year he's averaging 7.6 carries per game. Unless you expect that to change, his value will hinge completely on his receptions. So far this season he's been excellent in that department, but will it continue? He's currently averaging an insane 11 targets per game, which would put him on track for 176 targets over a full season. That would rank in the top 3 among all NFL players in a typical season. Unless he's the next Welker, I just really don't see how that can continue. Sproles is probably the preeminent receiving threat at RB in the league right now and he has averaged about 7 targets per game in his entire time with the Saints. So I think it's likely that the target numbers fall for Vereen once NE gets its WR situation sorted. And that will likely leave him as more of a RB2 kind of guy in a typical PPR league. In other words, his current production probably isn't sustainable.

He's certainly not an old guy, but turning 25 in the offseason you're probably looking at just 2 years of remaining peak trade value. And with Brady set to turn 37 before next season, there's also a question of how long NE's offense will be able to sustain so many productive pass catchers. Those are minor factors, but mainly I just don't like Vereen enough as a player to take him as a top 10 dynasty RB. I think he's more of a decent player in a great scheme than a great player on his own merit. I usually try to stay away from those guys outside of redraft leagues because I don't trust their staying power.

 

[Adam Harstad]

So top ten WRs next year who dropped out and in?

Julio Jones how far does he slide haven't heard much on his foot but could be a problem long term?

Dr. Jene doesn't think so.

https://twitter.com/JeneBramel/status/410147483076284416

Shouldn't be. Straightforward surgery in young, well-conditioned athlete. MT @big_gulps_huh_ long term health concern with Julio's foot?

-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)

 

[Adam Harstad]

So top ten WRs next year who dropped out and in?

Julio Jones how far does he slide haven't heard much on his foot but could be a problem long term?

If you're talking off-season startups/ADP, the top 6 are locks, in some order...

Calvin

Dez

Green

Julio

DT

Gordon

After that, I think Cobb and Jeffery are pretty much locked in as the next 2. Again, I know not everyone would rank/draft them this way, but this will be the consensus, IMO. So, that leaves 2 and it's wide open. Some that will be popular choices:

Marshall

Patterson

Floyd

Allen

Watkins

We've discussed on twitter before, but I don't think Gordon belongs in a tier with the other top guys. Those other guys should give comparable production at dramatically reduced risk.

I'm also assuming the omission of Jeffery was unintentional, and the omission of Harvin was just to bug me.

 

[ctt8410]

So where are you guys slotting Lacy in your RB rankings?

I'm not updating again until next Monday/Tuesday, but it's looking likely Lacy will be in my top 10 once I do.

Do you mind if I ask why you're so low on Alshon Jeffery (WR32)? He has measurables and pedigree and seems to be in the midst of a 2nd year breakout with a stable (if not particularly QB rich) franchise and yet he falls behind low-upside guys like Amendola and Shorts.

Well, for starters, I don't view either Amendola or Shorts as anything close to "low-upside" guys in PPR leagues. Shorts' numbers after taking over as a starter last year were insane- something like a 1400 yard pace, IIRC. If not for the concussion worries, Shorts would be higher, still. As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola. If Amendola can stay healthy (yeah, yeah, I know- big if), he could easily put up top-12 numbers as the slot receiver in the Patriots' offense. If anything, I would characterize Amendola and Shorts as just the opposite of "low-upside"; I'd call them huge high-risk, high-reward plays.

To some extent, there's a bit of a numbers crunch at receiver. There are more than 10 guys I'd love to fit into my 20-29 range right now, and some of them get squeezed out. Why Alshon? Because I try to make a point of downgrading players who have had a huge game below where my gut reaction would have me put them. Even at the half-season mark, one huge game can have a huge impact on total numbers when there hasn't been enough of a chance for regression to do its work yet. Intuitively, I see an exciting young prospect like Alshon have a monster game and my first instinct is to just go nuts and shoot them up the board. I find that slightly discounting guys with a huge game on their resume often prevents me from overreacting and doing something that I'll regret later.

I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Amendola's a 28-year old who can't stay healthy and whose best season is 85/689/3 and WR30 in ppr. He's not Edelman, but he's also not Welker.

It's perfectly within reason to cast a skeptical eye towards Jeffery based on the small sample size, but I don't see how he's a lower ceiling guy than those 2 when he's shown the ability to put up a 37-pointer within the first 16 games of his career.

Since this post:

Jeffery - 42/632/4

Amendola - 22/274/2

Shorts - 20/212/2

Now seems like a good time to reiterate that upside can be deceptive. A mediocre player with high volume from a bad QB can give the illusion of higher upside when he's already peaked. The same can be said for a mediocre, injury-prone talent replacing the generational talent with a HOF QB. It was a fool's errand a month ago to assume these players had any upside beyond their recent production and it rings even truer now.

It's equally foolish to hold up a bad month by a receiver who has produced a lot of substantially better months as proof that he has a low upside. You know that recent production doesn't demonstrate a single thing about a player's upside, right?

I mean, perhaps I'm not understanding this conversation. Upside, to me, is the best a player can realistically be expected to do. So when Cecil Shorts actually, honestly and truly averaged 80+ receiving yards per game over half a season with garbage QBs and a sustainable target pace (pro-rates to about 150 over a full season), that to me suggests the best we could realistically expect him to do would be... at least 80 yards per game. If he comes back next year and only does 60 yards per game, it's nonsensical to say "This is his upside" (your quote, not mine). No, this is not his upside. This is how he's performing right now, but his upside is the best he can reasonably produce, and we know he can reasonably produce better than this based on the fact that he's reasonably produced better than this.

It baffles me that you dismiss arguments on the basis of small sample size while continuing to beat the drum of a small sample for Shorts (which I initially said was his upside and you re-buffed). If a couple good games is all it takes to define a player as high upside, then there are 80 or so high upside WRs in the NFL right now.

With Amendola, it seems to be a case of just assuming the guy can be a poor man's Welker. We had this issue in the offseason with everyone just assuming that Sudfeld could be a poor man's Gronkowski. Until Amendola shows that he can actually produce, how is he any different than Edelman?

You preach constantly about appropriately pricing in risk with the measurables guys and I just can't figure out why that doesn't apply to the inverse of some guys where the dream scenario is such a miniscule probability.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

I can see an argument for Spiller, Lacy, Alf, Bell, or Murray ahead of Vereen. But I'd have no issue grabbing Vereen ahead of any of the RBs turning 28 or 29 heading into the 2014 season.

My biggest issue with Vereen is that he doesn't run the ball. This year he's averaging 7.6 carries per game. Unless you expect that to change, his value will hinge completely on his receptions. So far this season he's been excellent in that department, but will it continue? He's currently averaging an insane 11 targets per game, which would put him on track for 176 targets over a full season. That would rank in the top 3 among all NFL players in a typical season. Unless he's the next Welker, I just really don't see how that can continue. Sproles is probably the preeminent receiving threat at RB in the league right now and he has averaged about 7 targets per game in his entire time with the Saints. So I think it's likely that the target numbers fall for Vereen once NE gets its WR situation sorted. And that will likely leave him as more of a RB2 kind of guy in a typical PPR league. In other words, his current production probably isn't sustainable.

He's certainly not an old guy, but turning 25 in the offseason you're probably looking at just 2 years of remaining peak trade value. And with Brady set to turn 37 before next season, there's also a question of how long NE's offense will be able to sustain so many productive pass catchers. Those are minor factors, but mainly I just don't like Vereen enough as a player to take him as a top 10 dynasty RB. I think he's more of a decent player in a great scheme than a great player on his own merit. I usually try to stay away from those guys outside of redraft leagues because I don't trust their staying power.

Agree 100% with all of this.

Vereen's also a UFA after next year, and I wonder if he'd carry anywhere near the same type of value if he lands anywhere else (which is pretty likely IMO).

We're also dealing with a tiny sample size in a perfect storm situation with this player, who BTW had a hard time getting touches in less optimal conditions his first two years in the league.

Finally, for those who actually believe in injury-proneness (not me) he's missed time three years in a row.

Vereen is nowhere near my top-10 dynasty RBs.

 

[ctt8410]

Hindsight is 20/20. Shorts played very well last year. This year he is still putting up total stats, but the efficiency isn't there. He's doing a very poor job of converting targets into yards. Nowhere near what he did last season. If you predicted that, kudos to you. To say he never had upside is suspect though since if he maintained his 2012 performance this year he'd probably be a top 10-15 guy.

This isn't hindsight. I'm just revisiting the same topic from 6 weeks ago.

 

[PatsWillWin]

As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola.

Ehhhh...no.

 

[opensourcebeer]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

I can see an argument for Spiller, Lacy, Alf, Bell, or Murray ahead of Vereen. But I'd have no issue grabbing Vereen ahead of any of the RBs turning 28 or 29 heading into the 2014 season.

My biggest issue with Vereen is that he doesn't run the ball. This year he's averaging 7.6 carries per game. Unless you expect that to change, his value will hinge completely on his receptions. So far this season he's been excellent in that department, but will it continue? He's currently averaging an insane 11 targets per game, which would put him on track for 176 targets over a full season. That would rank in the top 3 among all NFL players in a typical season. Unless he's the next Welker, I just really don't see how that can continue. Sproles is probably the preeminent receiving threat at RB in the league right now and he has averaged about 7 targets per game in his entire time with the Saints. So I think it's likely that the target numbers fall for Vereen once NE gets its WR situation sorted. And that will likely leave him as more of a RB2 kind of guy in a typical PPR league. In other words, his current production probably isn't sustainable.

He's certainly not an old guy, but turning 25 in the offseason you're probably looking at just 2 years of remaining peak trade value. And with Brady set to turn 37 before next season, there's also a question of how long NE's offense will be able to sustain so many productive pass catchers. Those are minor factors, but mainly I just don't like Vereen enough as a player to take him as a top 10 dynasty RB. I think he's more of a decent player in a great scheme than a great player on his own merit. I usually try to stay away from those guys outside of redraft leagues because I don't trust their staying power.

Agree 100% with all of this.

Vereen's also a UFA after next year, and I wonder if he'd carry anywhere near the same type of value if he lands anywhere else (which is pretty likely IMO).

We're also dealing with a tiny sample size in a perfect storm situation with this player, who BTW had a hard time getting touches in less optimal conditions his first two years in the league.

Finally, for those who actually believe in injury-proneness (not me) he's missed time three years in a row.

Vereen is nowhere near my top-10 dynasty RBs.

I agree, Vereen isn't in my top 10 dynasty RBs either.

However, I feel more comfortable rolling the dice with Vereen over guys like AP and Forte in a startup situation.

 

[Steed]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

I can see an argument for Spiller, Lacy, Alf, Bell, or Murray ahead of Vereen. But I'd have no issue grabbing Vereen ahead of any of the RBs turning 28 or 29 heading into the 2014 season.

My biggest issue with Vereen is that he doesn't run the ball. This year he's averaging 7.6 carries per game. Unless you expect that to change, his value will hinge completely on his receptions. So far this season he's been excellent in that department, but will it continue? He's currently averaging an insane 11 targets per game, which would put him on track for 176 targets over a full season. That would rank in the top 3 among all NFL players in a typical season. Unless he's the next Welker, I just really don't see how that can continue. Sproles is probably the preeminent receiving threat at RB in the league right now and he has averaged about 7 targets per game in his entire time with the Saints. So I think it's likely that the target numbers fall for Vereen once NE gets its WR situation sorted. And that will likely leave him as more of a RB2 kind of guy in a typical PPR league. In other words, his current production probably isn't sustainable.

He's certainly not an old guy, but turning 25 in the offseason you're probably looking at just 2 years of remaining peak trade value. And with Brady set to turn 37 before next season, there's also a question of how long NE's offense will be able to sustain so many productive pass catchers. Those are minor factors, but mainly I just don't like Vereen enough as a player to take him as a top 10 dynasty RB. I think he's more of a decent player in a great scheme than a great player on his own merit. I usually try to stay away from those guys outside of redraft leagues because I don't trust their staying power.

You've had nothing but negatives to say about Vereen from day 1 so this isn't surprising. But he's a glitch in the Woodhead/sproles/welker vain. These kind of guys are extremely valuable in ppr leagues. mostly because the market covets 6'3" wrs and rbs that weigh 220 lbs with 4.3 wheels and they get pushed down the list.Even if he leaves New England, he'll catch on somewhere who'll brought him in for his unique skillset that fits well into today's passing league.

 

[jeter23]

So top ten WRs next year who dropped out and in?

Julio Jones how far does he slide haven't heard much on his foot but could be a problem long term?

If you're talking off-season startups/ADP, the top 6 are locks, in some order...

Calvin

Dez

Green

Julio

DT

Gordon

After that, I think Cobb and Jeffery are pretty much locked in as the next 2. Again, I know not everyone would rank/draft them this way, but this will be the consensus, IMO. So, that leaves 2 and it's wide open. Some that will be popular choices:

Marshall

Patterson

Floyd

Allen

Watkins

We've discussed on twitter before, but I don't think Gordon belongs in a tier with the other top guys. Those other guys should give comparable production at dramatically reduced risk.

I'm also assuming the omission of Jeffery was unintentional, and the omission of Harvin was just to bug me.

I included Jeffery in there and probably should've included Harvin in that last group, though I'd be surprised to see him go in the 1st round of any startup.

As for Gordon, I understand and appreciate your opinion, but my statement is based on the current market value. So, whether or not he should be in that top tier can be debated, but the fact is he's there now.

 

[duaneok66]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

I can see an argument for Spiller, Lacy, Alf, Bell, or Murray ahead of Vereen. But I'd have no issue grabbing Vereen ahead of any of the RBs turning 28 or 29 heading into the 2014 season.

My biggest issue with Vereen is that he doesn't run the ball. This year he's averaging 7.6 carries per game. Unless you expect that to change, his value will hinge completely on his receptions. So far this season he's been excellent in that department, but will it continue? He's currently averaging an insane 11 targets per game, which would put him on track for 176 targets over a full season. That would rank in the top 3 among all NFL players in a typical season. Unless he's the next Welker, I just really don't see how that can continue. Sproles is probably the preeminent receiving threat at RB in the league right now and he has averaged about 7 targets per game in his entire time with the Saints. So I think it's likely that the target numbers fall for Vereen once NE gets its WR situation sorted. And that will likely leave him as more of a RB2 kind of guy in a typical PPR league. In other words, his current production probably isn't sustainable.

He's certainly not an old guy, but turning 25 in the offseason you're probably looking at just 2 years of remaining peak trade value. And with Brady set to turn 37 before next season, there's also a question of how long NE's offense will be able to sustain so many productive pass catchers. Those are minor factors, but mainly I just don't like Vereen enough as a player to take him as a top 10 dynasty RB. I think he's more of a decent player in a great scheme than a great player on his own merit. I usually try to stay away from those guys outside of redraft leagues because I don't trust their staying power.

You've had nothing but negatives to say about Vereen from day 1 so this isn't surprising. But he's a glitch in the Woodhead/sproles/welker vain. These kind of guys are extremely valuable in ppr leagues. mostly because the market covets 6'3" wrs and rbs that weigh 220 lbs with 4.3 wheels and they get pushed down the list.Even if he leaves New England, he'll catch on somewhere who'll brought him in for his unique skillset that fits well into today's passing league.

Excellent posts on both sides.

Let me add that I thought that Woodhead would not be a factor outside of Foxboro. Vereen is talented enough to thrive elsewhere (given he is used in the best way to maximize his strengths).

 

[squistion]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

I can see an argument for Spiller, Lacy, Alf, Bell, or Murray ahead of Vereen. But I'd have no issue grabbing Vereen ahead of any of the RBs turning 28 or 29 heading into the 2014 season.

My biggest issue with Vereen is that he doesn't run the ball. This year he's averaging 7.6 carries per game. Unless you expect that to change, his value will hinge completely on his receptions. So far this season he's been excellent in that department, but will it continue? He's currently averaging an insane 11 targets per game, which would put him on track for 176 targets over a full season. That would rank in the top 3 among all NFL players in a typical season. Unless he's the next Welker, I just really don't see how that can continue. Sproles is probably the preeminent receiving threat at RB in the league right now and he has averaged about 7 targets per game in his entire time with the Saints. So I think it's likely that the target numbers fall for Vereen once NE gets its WR situation sorted. And that will likely leave him as more of a RB2 kind of guy in a typical PPR league. In other words, his current production probably isn't sustainable.

He's certainly not an old guy, but turning 25 in the offseason you're probably looking at just 2 years of remaining peak trade value. And with Brady set to turn 37 before next season, there's also a question of how long NE's offense will be able to sustain so many productive pass catchers. Those are minor factors, but mainly I just don't like Vereen enough as a player to take him as a top 10 dynasty RB. I think he's more of a decent player in a great scheme than a great player on his own merit. I usually try to stay away from those guys outside of redraft leagues because I don't trust their staying power.

You've had nothing but negatives to say about Vereen from day 1 so this isn't surprising. But he's a glitch in the Woodhead/sproles/welker vain. These kind of guys are extremely valuable in ppr leagues. mostly because the market covets 6'3" wrs and rbs that weigh 220 lbs with 4.3 wheels and they get pushed down the list.

Even if he leaves New England, he'll catch on somewhere who'll brought him in for his unique skillset that fits well into today's passing league.

Exactly. He trashed this player every chance he could in the offseason, saying essentially he was all hype based on one playoff game. EBF is loathe to change his mind on a select few players that he has a strong opinion on, and Vereen is one of those players. And I am not saying (in advance of the Straw Man he always trots out) that he never changes his mind on a player.

 

[EBF]

He might be better than I've given him credit for in the past. I also had a very valid point, which is that his value will probably always be limited by the lack of carries. It's kind of like an inverse Alfred Morris. Morris is a great rusher, but he adds no value in the receiving game and that prevents him from scoring on par with guys like McCoy and Charles. Likewise, Vereen might be a dangerous weapon in the passing game, but he adds very little as a rusher. So, much like with Woodhead and Sproles, you are living and dying with his receptions. I don't think he's going to get anywhere near 11 targets per game over the long haul. So unless you're expecting him to eventually become a 200+ carry player on top of being a dumpoff accumulator, there's a pretty modest long term ceiling on what he can become.

If you like him as a RB2, I'm not going to argue against him at this point. That's not what we're talking about though. In that mock above he went at the 17th pick as the 7th overall RB. In that range I'd be looking to get someone who ranks near the top of the league at his position. I just don't think Vereen is that great. He might not be one of the 20 best RBs in the league. Taking him as one of the top 20 overall players seems like a gross overreaction to the latest box scores.

 

[Adam Harstad]

So where are you guys slotting Lacy in your RB rankings?

I'm not updating again until next Monday/Tuesday, but it's looking likely Lacy will be in my top 10 once I do.

Do you mind if I ask why you're so low on Alshon Jeffery (WR32)? He has measurables and pedigree and seems to be in the midst of a 2nd year breakout with a stable (if not particularly QB rich) franchise and yet he falls behind low-upside guys like Amendola and Shorts.

Well, for starters, I don't view either Amendola or Shorts as anything close to "low-upside" guys in PPR leagues. Shorts' numbers after taking over as a starter last year were insane- something like a 1400 yard pace, IIRC. If not for the concussion worries, Shorts would be higher, still. As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola. If Amendola can stay healthy (yeah, yeah, I know- big if), he could easily put up top-12 numbers as the slot receiver in the Patriots' offense. If anything, I would characterize Amendola and Shorts as just the opposite of "low-upside"; I'd call them huge high-risk, high-reward plays.

To some extent, there's a bit of a numbers crunch at receiver. There are more than 10 guys I'd love to fit into my 20-29 range right now, and some of them get squeezed out. Why Alshon? Because I try to make a point of downgrading players who have had a huge game below where my gut reaction would have me put them. Even at the half-season mark, one huge game can have a huge impact on total numbers when there hasn't been enough of a chance for regression to do its work yet. Intuitively, I see an exciting young prospect like Alshon have a monster game and my first instinct is to just go nuts and shoot them up the board. I find that slightly discounting guys with a huge game on their resume often prevents me from overreacting and doing something that I'll regret later.

I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Amendola's a 28-year old who can't stay healthy and whose best season is 85/689/3 and WR30 in ppr. He's not Edelman, but he's also not Welker.

It's perfectly within reason to cast a skeptical eye towards Jeffery based on the small sample size, but I don't see how he's a lower ceiling guy than those 2 when he's shown the ability to put up a 37-pointer within the first 16 games of his career.

Since this post:

Jeffery - 42/632/4

Amendola - 22/274/2

Shorts - 20/212/2

Now seems like a good time to reiterate that upside can be deceptive. A mediocre player with high volume from a bad QB can give the illusion of higher upside when he's already peaked. The same can be said for a mediocre, injury-prone talent replacing the generational talent with a HOF QB. It was a fool's errand a month ago to assume these players had any upside beyond their recent production and it rings even truer now.

It's equally foolish to hold up a bad month by a receiver who has produced a lot of substantially better months as proof that he has a low upside. You know that recent production doesn't demonstrate a single thing about a player's upside, right?

I mean, perhaps I'm not understanding this conversation. Upside, to me, is the best a player can realistically be expected to do. So when Cecil Shorts actually, honestly and truly averaged 80+ receiving yards per game over half a season with garbage QBs and a sustainable target pace (pro-rates to about 150 over a full season), that to me suggests the best we could realistically expect him to do would be... at least 80 yards per game. If he comes back next year and only does 60 yards per game, it's nonsensical to say "This is his upside" (your quote, not mine). No, this is not his upside. This is how he's performing right now, but his upside is the best he can reasonably produce, and we know he can reasonably produce better than this based on the fact that he's reasonably produced better than this.

It baffles me that you dismiss arguments on the basis of small sample size while continuing to beat the drum of a small sample for Shorts (which I initially said was his upside and you re-buffed). If a couple good games is all it takes to define a player as high upside, then there are 80 or so high upside WRs in the NFL right now.

With Amendola, it seems to be a case of just assuming the guy can be a poor man's Welker. We had this issue in the offseason with everyone just assuming that Sudfeld could be a poor man's Gronkowski. Until Amendola shows that he can actually produce, how is he any different than Edelman?

You preach constantly about appropriately pricing in risk with the measurables guys and I just can't figure out why that doesn't apply to the inverse of some guys where the dream scenario is such a miniscule probability.

It was more than a couple of good games for Shorts, it was a pretty sustained run that coincided perfectly with him getting the starting job and spanned two different quarterbacks. Although I don't substantially disagree with your point that there are a ton of high-upside WRs in the NFL right now. In fact, I believe I said the exact same thing- I'm quick to trade away WRs in my 30-50 range if I find a motivated buyer because, while they have high upside, so does everyone else in that range. Upside in a WR prospect is very cheap and common, which is why I don't rank WRs by their upside.

The biggest difference between Danny Amendola and Zach Sudfeld is about $30 million dollars. The second biggest difference between Amendola and Zach Sudfeld is that Amendola had already demonstrated an ability to perform as a high-end PPR WR2 when healthy. Sudfeld was an undrafted unknown who had a good training camp. Danny Amendola was a UFA with a hefty second contract. If I'd ranked Edelman high because he just happened to inherit the "Welker position", then that'd be one thing, but New England actually went out and took the money they could have used to acquire Welker, and spent it on Danny Amendola instead. The same $6 million a year they used on Amendola could have gotten them Wes Welker. That, to me, suggested that New England's front office thought Amendola could handle the Welker role. He wasn't getting the job by default, he was the hand-picked successor.

And again, I'm not saying I ranked Danny Amendola and Cecil Shorts where I did because of their upside. The whole point of this post and my last one is that I don't rank WRs based on their upside. Upside is extremely, extremely common among WR prospects, and there's no need at all to put a premium on it when ranking players. I've said for years that the most common asset in all of dynasty is young WR prospects with upside- I'm pretty sure I could dig up posts from several years ago of me saying just that. This whole upside discussion came about when you asked me "How can you have Cecil Shorts and Danny Amendola so high when they have such low upside?", and I responded by saying I don't think they have low upside. I think Cecil Shorts and Danny Amendola, like everyone else I had ranked in that range, fell in the "young WRs with upside" category. And I think they still do.

 

[Adam Harstad]

As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola.

Ehhhh...no.

My thing with Edelman is that he's been on the roster for forever. The Pats have had plenty of chances to evaluate him. They've used him in the Welker role for years when Welker was out. And when Welker walked and Edelman was on the last year of his contract, they didn't bother making an effort trying to extend him. Instead, they handed $30 million to an outside hire. I'm a believer in following the money, and the money in New England suggests that they don't view Julian Edelman as anything special.

 

[Adam Harstad]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

I can see an argument for Spiller, Lacy, Alf, Bell, or Murray ahead of Vereen. But I'd have no issue grabbing Vereen ahead of any of the RBs turning 28 or 29 heading into the 2014 season.

My biggest issue with Vereen is that he doesn't run the ball. This year he's averaging 7.6 carries per game. Unless you expect that to change, his value will hinge completely on his receptions. So far this season he's been excellent in that department, but will it continue? He's currently averaging an insane 11 targets per game, which would put him on track for 176 targets over a full season. That would rank in the top 3 among all NFL players in a typical season. Unless he's the next Welker, I just really don't see how that can continue. Sproles is probably the preeminent receiving threat at RB in the league right now and he has averaged about 7 targets per game in his entire time with the Saints. So I think it's likely that the target numbers fall for Vereen once NE gets its WR situation sorted. And that will likely leave him as more of a RB2 kind of guy in a typical PPR league. In other words, his current production probably isn't sustainable.

He's certainly not an old guy, but turning 25 in the offseason you're probably looking at just 2 years of remaining peak trade value. And with Brady set to turn 37 before next season, there's also a question of how long NE's offense will be able to sustain so many productive pass catchers. Those are minor factors, but mainly I just don't like Vereen enough as a player to take him as a top 10 dynasty RB. I think he's more of a decent player in a great scheme than a great player on his own merit. I usually try to stay away from those guys outside of redraft leagues because I don't trust their staying power.

You've had nothing but negatives to say about Vereen from day 1 so this isn't surprising. But he's a glitch in the Woodhead/sproles/welker vain. These kind of guys are extremely valuable in ppr leagues. mostly because the market covets 6'3" wrs and rbs that weigh 220 lbs with 4.3 wheels and they get pushed down the list.Even if he leaves New England, he'll catch on somewhere who'll brought him in for his unique skillset that fits well into today's passing league.

If we're going to play this card, I do think it's important for someone to say that EBF was 100% right on Darren McFadden, and he deserves huge props for sticking to his guns despite the epic amount of crap he received for it, much of it from me.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I included Jeffery in there and probably should've included Harvin in that last group, though I'd be surprised to see him go in the 1st round of any startup.


As for Gordon, I understand and appreciate your opinion, but my statement is based on the current market value. So, whether or not he should be in that top tier can be debated, but the fact is he's there now.

I'd be curious to see what Gordon is getting traded for in established dynasty leagues. I know that the twitter buzz and the mock draft buzz suggests he's there, but I'm really curious if anyone is actually giving Dez Bryant-level packages for him in for real, long-term leagues where they'll be stuck with the consequences, or whether they get gun-shy when there's something on the line.

I guess Gordon's one of those guys where all it takes is one owner, and there's one in every league. I kind of feel like David Wilson was one of those players last offseason, where most guys were a bit wary of him, but it only takes one owner, and there's one in every league, so he was going solidly in the 2nd round of startups. I think Vereen might be on his way to being another one of those guys.

 

[Steed]

There are lots of interesting picks there. Blackmon at WR12 is pretty surprising given his issues. I have always been a Blackmon fan, but I wouldn't take him that high right now. Vereen at RB7 also seems like a pretty monumental reach to me.

I can see an argument for Spiller, Lacy, Alf, Bell, or Murray ahead of Vereen. But I'd have no issue grabbing Vereen ahead of any of the RBs turning 28 or 29 heading into the 2014 season.

My biggest issue with Vereen is that he doesn't run the ball. This year he's averaging 7.6 carries per game. Unless you expect that to change, his value will hinge completely on his receptions. So far this season he's been excellent in that department, but will it continue? He's currently averaging an insane 11 targets per game, which would put him on track for 176 targets over a full season. That would rank in the top 3 among all NFL players in a typical season. Unless he's the next Welker, I just really don't see how that can continue. Sproles is probably the preeminent receiving threat at RB in the league right now and he has averaged about 7 targets per game in his entire time with the Saints. So I think it's likely that the target numbers fall for Vereen once NE gets its WR situation sorted. And that will likely leave him as more of a RB2 kind of guy in a typical PPR league. In other words, his current production probably isn't sustainable.

He's certainly not an old guy, but turning 25 in the offseason you're probably looking at just 2 years of remaining peak trade value. And with Brady set to turn 37 before next season, there's also a question of how long NE's offense will be able to sustain so many productive pass catchers. Those are minor factors, but mainly I just don't like Vereen enough as a player to take him as a top 10 dynasty RB. I think he's more of a decent player in a great scheme than a great player on his own merit. I usually try to stay away from those guys outside of redraft leagues because I don't trust their staying power.

You've had nothing but negatives to say about Vereen from day 1 so this isn't surprising. But he's a glitch in the Woodhead/sproles/welker vain. These kind of guys are extremely valuable in ppr leagues. mostly because the market covets 6'3" wrs and rbs that weigh 220 lbs with 4.3 wheels and they get pushed down the list.Even if he leaves New England, he'll catch on somewhere who'll brought him in for his unique skillset that fits well into today's passing league.

If we're going to play this card, I do think it's important for someone to say that EBF was 100% right on Darren McFadden, and he deserves huge props for sticking to his guns despite the epic amount of crap he received for it, much of it from me.

He's also the omega man on planet Stewart. Gotta adjust quicker than that.

If Vereen is a top 20 overall dynasty asset, then I agree he's overvalued. But his talent isn't a detriment to him being a long term asset.

 

[Adam Harstad]

He's also the omega man on planet Stewart. Gotta adjust quicker than that.

If Vereen is a top 20 overall dynasty asset, then I agree he's overvalued. But his talent isn't a detriment to him being a long term asset.

I never said he was perfect. I'm just saying, if we're going to pretend that it's the worst thing in the world that he sometimes sticks to his opinions on a player long after those opinions become wildly unpopular, the least we can do is point out that sometimes he's right to do so. I don't think anyone has taken as much crap over any opinion as EBF has taken over McFadden. And EBF was right.

Will EBF be wrong about Vereen in the long run? Dunno. But he wasn't wrong about McFadden, and it's not fait accompli that he'll be wrong about Vereen. Changing your opinion once it becomes unpopular will certainly result in you having more popular opinions, but it doesn't always result in you having more correct opinions, and we shouldn't pretend otherwise. Let's stop bashing him for the fact that he doesn't always change his mind when the wind starts blowing strongly in another direction. In my mind, that's a commendable trait, not a character flaw.

As for the actual substance of his argument (rather than irrelevant discussions about his posting history), I thought EBF raised a pretty good point about Vereen's target total. 10+ targets a game ain't happening for the long term. I happen to think Ridley is a fantastic runner, so I don't see Vereen getting a huge chunk of the rushing pie unless Ridley leaves town (always a possibility). There's a good chance Vereen's production will be capped going forward by his one-dimensional role. That's not what I want out of a top-10 dynasty back.

 

[squistion]

He's also the omega man on planet Stewart. Gotta adjust quicker than that.

If Vereen is a top 20 overall dynasty asset, then I agree he's overvalued. But his talent isn't a detriment to him being a long term asset.

I never said he was perfect. I'm just saying, if we're going to pretend that it's the worst thing in the world that he sometimes sticks to his opinions on a player long after those opinions become wildly unpopular, the least we can do is point out that sometimes he's right to do so. I don't think anyone has taken as much crap over any opinion as EBF has taken over McFadden. And EBF was right.

Will EBF be wrong about Vereen in the long run? Dunno. But he wasn't wrong about McFadden, and it's not fait accompli that he'll be wrong about Vereen. Changing your opinion once it becomes unpopular will certainly result in you having more popular opinions, but it doesn't always result in you having more correct opinions, and we shouldn't pretend otherwise. Let's stop bashing him for the fact that he doesn't always change his mind when the wind starts blowing strongly in another direction. In my mind, that's a commendable trait, not a character flaw.

As for the actual substance of his argument (rather than irrelevant discussions about his posting history), I thought EBF raised a pretty good point about Vereen's target total. 10+ targets a game ain't happening for the long term. I happen to think Ridley is a fantastic runner, so I don't see Vereen getting a huge chunk of the rushing pie unless Ridley leaves town (always a possibility). There's a good chance Vereen's production will be capped going forward by his one-dimensional role. That's not what I want out of a top-10 dynasty back.

About what particularly? He was right that DMC's low BMI would make him injury prone? OK, I will grant you that (although he still could do a Fred Taylor).

That Stewart and Mendenhall were better draft choices? Well, they have all been disappointing, so the jury is still out on that.

That DMC would be a complete failure in the NFL and a complete fantasy bust? No, he did have one good year in 2010 and I won two dynasty league championships on his back (one is in the league that EBF and I are in). So, although he has traditionally been a money losing proposition for his owners, he did have one good year, contrary to EBF's prediction of 100% failure.

 

[Adam Harstad]

He's also the omega man on planet Stewart. Gotta adjust quicker than that.

If Vereen is a top 20 overall dynasty asset, then I agree he's overvalued. But his talent isn't a detriment to him being a long term asset.

I never said he was perfect. I'm just saying, if we're going to pretend that it's the worst thing in the world that he sometimes sticks to his opinions on a player long after those opinions become wildly unpopular, the least we can do is point out that sometimes he's right to do so. I don't think anyone has taken as much crap over any opinion as EBF has taken over McFadden. And EBF was right.

Will EBF be wrong about Vereen in the long run? Dunno. But he wasn't wrong about McFadden, and it's not fait accompli that he'll be wrong about Vereen. Changing your opinion once it becomes unpopular will certainly result in you having more popular opinions, but it doesn't always result in you having more correct opinions, and we shouldn't pretend otherwise. Let's stop bashing him for the fact that he doesn't always change his mind when the wind starts blowing strongly in another direction. In my mind, that's a commendable trait, not a character flaw.

As for the actual substance of his argument (rather than irrelevant discussions about his posting history), I thought EBF raised a pretty good point about Vereen's target total. 10+ targets a game ain't happening for the long term. I happen to think Ridley is a fantastic runner, so I don't see Vereen getting a huge chunk of the rushing pie unless Ridley leaves town (always a possibility). There's a good chance Vereen's production will be capped going forward by his one-dimensional role. That's not what I want out of a top-10 dynasty back.

About what particularly? He was right that DMC's low BMI would make him injury prone? OK, I will grant you that (although he still could do a Fred Taylor).

That Stewart and Mendenhall were better draft choices? Well, they have all been disappointing, so the jury is still out on that.

That DMC would be a complete failure in the NFL and a complete fantasy bust? No, he did have one good year in 2010 and I won two dynasty league championships on his back (one is in the league that EBF and I are in). So, although he has traditionally been a money losing proposition for his owners, he did have one good year, contrary to EBF's prediction of 100% failure.

I don't know what EBF was predicting back in 2008, and I don't care to look it up since it's irrelevant to the discussion at hand. The point isn't "all of EBF's initial calls are always 100% right, including the one about Darren McFadden". The point is that EBF takes a mountain of crap for sticking to his guns, and nobody acknowledges that sometimes he's right. AFTER Darren McFadden's huge year, when everyone and their mother was moving him into their top 10, EBF kept saying he didn't think McFadden could stay healthy and he thought McFadden was wildly overrated. And he took a mountain of crap for it. And he was right. What has McFadden given his owners since then? 7 great games in 2011, crappy RB2 numbers in 2012 (accompanied by all sorts of injury headaches), and a slow decline to irrelevance.

Now Shane Vereen has had a fantastic season, and everyone is jumping him way up in their rankings, and EBF is pumping the brakes on that hype train again, and people play the "EBF never learns and always sticks to his guns well beyond when it's obvious that he was wrong" card, when the most famous example of EBF sticking to his guns well beyond when it was obvious he was wrong was his Darren McFadden call post-breakout... when he was right.

Is EBF right about Vereen? Don't know. That's an interesting debate to have. But let's have it on the merits of his stance on Shane Vereen rather than trying to cast aspersions on his unwillingness to change his mind in the past when the biggest example people have trotted out of his unwillingness to change his mind happened to be a situation where EBF was ultimately right to not change his mind.

I'm not innocent, here. I gave him as much crap as anyone about Darren McFadden. I thought he was missing the boat completely. I was wrong. He was right. There have been calls that have gone the other way, too (remember when Jamaal Charles would never be a workhorse, EBF?). The point isn't that EBF is 100% accurate. The point is perhaps it's time to stop giving EBF grief over the fact that he sometimes sticks to his guns when we've got examples on the table of times when EBF was 100% right to stick to his guns, despite the entire world turning against him for it. If you think he's wrong, that's fine, but let's not pretend that he's just a biased, short-sighted fool who can't see the world changing around him when he sometimes clings to his old opinions even after those opinions become unpopular.

 

[EBF]

McFadden and Stewart. Hmmm....

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eZS_eJQPYME/UWDmR1g3Y7I/AAAAAAAAAns/tZPnR1z9JM4/s320/6a00d83462eb8d69e201761521a118970c-300wi.gif

About what particularly? That EBF was right that DMC's low BMI would make him injury prone? OK, I will grant you that.

That Stewart and Mendenhall were better draft choices? Well, they have all been disappointing, so the jury is still out on that.

That DMC would be a complete failure in the NFL and a complete fantasy bust? No, he did have one good year in 2010 and I won two dynasty league championships on his back (one is in the league that EBF and I are in). So, although he has traditionally has been a money losing proposition for his owners, he did have one good year, contrary to EBF's prediction of 100% failure.

That was actually never my take on McFadden. I was always careful to point out that he would show flashes. Here are some actual posts from back then:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=400975#entry8745342

I know people are going to bump a lot of my posts the moment he breaks his first 20+ yard TD. What I hope these people realize is that I don't necessarily think DMC is devoid of talent, I just don't think he's all he's cracked up to be. He's going to make some big plays, but he doesn't really fit the mold of a workhorse back. I see him more as a suped-up Michael Bennett than the second coming of Tomlinson or Peterson. That's all I've really been saying all along. So you can bump my posts when he breaks a long run here and there, but I won't eat any crow unless he truly becomes a top tier every down back.

I don't hate the Raiders. I'm indifferent towards them. Lately they've been making major commitments to a lot of risky players, so I've been critical of them. Javon Walker, JaMarcus Russell, and Darren McFadden are huge gambles that they didn't have to take. They could've had Calvin Johnson, Matt Schaub, and Glenn Dorsey instead.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=395665&page=2#entry8642375

No matter who it is, I feel pretty confident that a lot of people will look back on this draft a few years from now and wonder how they fell for a giant piece of fool's gold named Darren McFadden. I don't completely hate DMC's game. His speed and acceleration are phenomenal. He has a chance to be a big time home run hitter at the next level. But will he be an elite workhorse RB? I don't think so. Will he be the best back from his draft class when the dust settles? I don't think so.

That's been my stance all along. I don't find it that radical or controversial. Time will tell.

The official EBF company line regarding Darren McFadden:- He's a great athlete who will break some long runs. He may even have multiple 1,000 rushing seasons, but...- He will never be the elite ADP or LT type of back some of his supporters envision.- He doesn't have the body type to be a workhorse back in the NFL.- When the dust settles on his career, he will be viewed as anything ranging from a mild disappointment to a major bust.

There are plenty of things that I was wrong about in that draft class. I whiffed on the receivers. I was too low on Chris Johnson early on. I've consistently underestimated Jamaal Charles over the years. But I was 100% right about DMC. Maybe we can put that dead horse to rest already.

 

[EBF]

The point isn't that EBF is 100% accurate. The point is perhaps it's time to stop giving EBF grief over the fact that he sometimes sticks to his guns when we've got examples on the table of times when EBF was 100% right to stick to his guns, despite the entire world turning against him for it. If you think he's wrong, that's fine, but let's not pretend that he's just a biased, short-sighted fool who can't see the world changing around him when he sometimes clings to his old opinions even after those opinions become unpopular.

Thanks for that. The McFadden/Stewart stuff is incredibly boring at this point and I don't think anyone wants to read more of it.

However, there's a bigger issue underlying that discussion. It's something that I've talked about many times like a broken record, but it bears repeating because it's something that pops up every season. Every year sees numerous players either exceed expectations or fail to meet them. Sometimes by a huge margin. When this happens the community tends to make radical adjustments to their opinion of that player.

An interesting example for me is Ryan Mathews vs. CJ Spiller. Several years back I took Ryan Mathews ahead of Spiller in a rookie draft. After the first two years, that looked like the "right" decision. Mathews was better as a rookie and much better as a sophomore, when he rushed for twice as many yards and was unanimously rated as a top 10 dynasty RB. In 2012, the situation flipped. Spiller easily outscored Mathews and was ranked higher by everyone. Suddenly my Mathews over Spiller pick was horribly "wrong." Well guess what? This season Mathews is outscoring Spiller by a healthy margin. So am I right again? Was I ever wrong? Was I ever right? Will Spiller's production obliterate Mathews's from 2014 onward?

With players who are retired, it's pretty easy to assess their careers. Randy Moss was better than Kevin Dyson and there's really no debate. However, with players who are still active (especially players who are still relatively early in their careers) things aren't that clear cut. Some guys are going to come out of the blocks on fire and disappear. Some guys are going to start slow and eventually become monsters. Some guys are going to bounce around like a pinball, alternating between seasons of great production and seasons of total irrelevance (which is sort of what Spiller and Mathews both look like right now). With any developing player, there's a real danger in using a single snapshot moment in time as the flawless predictor for everything to come in his career.

I was lucky enough to see Michael Jordan play in person in his last season with the Bulls before he "retired" for the second time. Waited in line for hours to get tickets. The irony is that he had an absolutely awful game. Bricked everything. Scored something like 10 or 12 points. If I went into that game knowing nothing about Michael Jordan and had to assess his future outlook based solely on that performance, I would've said he sucked. But ultimately it was just one game and one game doesn't tell the story of a player's career. One SEASON doesn't even tell the story of a player's career.

It's a simple enough observation, but also something that I think we struggle to incorporate into our FF outlook. There's a pretty strong urge to just react based on most recent news. You know the drill. Santonio Holmes isn't putting up stats this year. Therefore he sucks and has no value. Out of sight, out of mind. On the flipside, Alshon Jeffery is having a monster season. Therefore he's an automatic stud moving forward. I'm not saying that I agree or disagree with either of those examples. Only that things are lot more fluid and a lot less concrete than we make them out to be. So any time you're using current performance as a perfect predictor of the future, you're in for a rough ride. There are always going to be players who inexplicably fall back to Earth after seemingly breaking out (Koren Robinson, Sidney Rice, Braylon Edwards, Steve Slaton, Julius Jones). There are always going to be other players who toil in obscurity or mediocrity for YEARS before suddenly turning a corner (Thomas Jones, Tiki Barber, Brandon Lloyd).

Yet every year people lose sight of this and become trapped in the present moment. So if I come on here and say Santonio Holmes has more dynasty value than Wes Welker or that Eddie Lacy has less dynasty value than Trent Richardson, I will get the "You're in denial! Can't you see what's blatantly obvious?!" tar and feather treatment when in fact I could be totally right. Having an unpopular opinion of a player and clinging to that opinion in the face of contradictory information doesn't mean you're biased and delusional. It doesn't even mean you're wrong. Three months ago a lot of people probably would've taken Kenbrell Thompkins ahead of Zac Stacy. A month ago a lot of people probably would've taken Zac Stacy over Justin Hunter. Tonight a lot of people would probably take Justin Hunter over either of those two. Maybe in another month everyone will prefer Quinton Patton over all three of those guys after he goes off for 200 yards in the NFC championship game. We won't really know which of those takes is "right" for quite some time, so playing the "I told you so!" or "You're wrong!" card after the next batch of games probably isn't that wise.

 

[Andrew74]

How about we go back to debating players and not posters?

As for Vereen, I've owned the guy since his rookie year. But I'm looking at this as an opportunity to sell to that "one guy" that would value him close to RB1 territory in my 0.5 PPR. It's taken murder, gutted WR corps, And fumblitis by every other RB rostered to produce this output. Is it going to last? Maybe, but I'm betting it won't at this level. Maturation by the WRs and the draft/FA can really change his value. He doesn't strike me as a talent that demands the ball. And as a long-time owner, I must admit I'm just waiting for him to get hurt again.

So I'm looking to sell while he's hot. Price tag is high RB2/low RB1. Below that, I'd rather keep him

 

[renesauz]

I've never seen anyone catch the ball quite like Jeffery. Between that catch a few weeks ago, and last night... he makes amazing grabs, but with a distinctive pattern. He's got his hands way out away from his body, and catches the ball completely with his hands, but with one hand on the top of the ball and the other hand on the bottom. And he seems to have no qualms about keeping his hands up while falling down, making no effort to break his fall. Great hands with an interesting technique.

His value has jumped Marshall's, for a current contender and especially for a rebuilder.

This. Hadn't seen much of him until that game against the Boy's. Kid positively ooozes talent

 

[voiceofunreason]

How about we go back to debating players and not posters?

As for Vereen, I've owned the guy since his rookie year. But I'm looking at this as an opportunity to sell to that "one guy" that would value him close to RB1 territory in my 0.5 PPR. It's taken murder, gutted WR corps, And fumblitis by every other RB rostered to produce this output. Is it going to last? Maybe, but I'm betting it won't at this level. Maturation by the WRs and the draft/FA can really change his value. He doesn't strike me as a talent that demands the ball. And as a long-time owner, I must admit I'm just waiting for him to get hurt again.

So I'm looking to sell while he's hot. Price tag is high RB2/low RB1. Below that, I'd rather keep him

I agree on all points.

As for that draft, there was a lot of awful picks. Some mock drafts are interesting, some are just jokes. I'd throw that one into the reject pile. Nobody is making those picks in a real league, they're just being clowns.

 

[deadlyrange0321]

I'm sure I've missed some of the chatter on Jeffery, but I've got him inside the top 10 at this point. Anyone thinking differently?

I just see MASSIVE upside here and I really like Trestman as his coach too.

 

[kutta]

A few of us did a 6 round dynasty startup mock last night. I took Jeffery at 2.01 and there were multiple comments saying that he was next on their list, etc. I look for him to routinely be a 1st rounder this off-season.

Could you share the first 10-12 drafted WRs?

Or, share the draft board thru 6 rounds?

http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=72563&O=17

Interesting how people value dynasty prospects. My dynasty team this year is 12-1 and the heavy favorite to win the championship. Yet I only have four guys that were even drafted in your six round draft: AP (2.03), Vereen (2.06), Jordy (4.11), and Crabtree (5.06). That's it.

My team is made up of solidly-producing veterans that I can usually get pretty cheaply. I am of the belief that you can build a very strong team with a lot of these guys (Peyton, Brees, AP, Reggie Bush, Colston, Fitz, Jordy, Andre, Gates, Gonzo, etc.) and since they come so cheaply because everyone over values youth, you can get a lot of them and build a great team. I'll let everyone else take chances on, and overpay for, youth (re: Martin, Richardson, RG3, Spiller, etc.) and I'll keep plugging away with the older, proven vets.

 

[ex-ghost]

Where do guys like Pead and Britt fit in?

Pead - 2nd round pick but stuck behind Stacy and Cunningham?

Britt - talented, had injuries, head case, drops every pass thrown his way.